LINK - Future Projection SeriesIf you’ve read any of my previous “Future Projection” posts, skip down to the conclusion as these paragraphs are the same.
During the downturns in the market I spent time learning more about utilizing the charting functions in TradingView. I also watch a lot of youtube vids about crypto and charting concepts. I came across a good chunk of info on using the “log” function and what it could possible show me.
At this point in the crypto cycle, even though I feel we are nearing a parabolic stage, it is beyond the point to expect 50X or more from me or any basic Joe who “dabbles” in crypto investing. Think long term. What can I realistically (if that even exists in Crypto) expect a coin to perform in the next bull run. Well the log function gives me a level playing field to do just that.
Using the log function, I utilize a common start date as the beginning of my parallel channel. That date is the big drop Mar/20. The parallel channel runs from the bottom of the Mar/20 drop forward in time along the bottom dips. The top of the channel is the highpoint in the cycle.
The first future projection is created using the green trend lines, the first from the top of the cycle peak to the bottom, and another from that lowest point up forward in time to what I estimate as the timeframe for top cycle which approximates end of Q4, and my birthday Jan/7 so thats the future date for all graphs in this series.
The second future projection takes ratio’d growth into consideration. This is done using the blue trend line which starts at the first peak after the Mar/20 drop, using the top of arcs as the guidance. I carry this line forward to Jan/7.
Conclusion; At the time I drew this one the price was $34
First Projection $208
208 / 34 = 6.1 X
Second Projection $493
493 / 34 = 14.5 X
Now for a regular old fellow such as myself, a 6 to maybe 14 X on my money within the next few months is a good investment. It literally involves 2 trades. Timing is not a great big deal as long as you get in near 34 otherwise the X factors changes a lot. Timing to get out is the top of the curve. This is a day time factor. It’ll be “at the top” for days or a week. You’re not chasing a pump or a knife here, its a month(s) trade. Or a parabolic week so watch close.
I’ve done this for a lot of coins now and the results are sometimes very interesting in that, a popular coin just doesn’t have the numbers or that it really has good numbers. I found as an average I like results in the 5 or above range for the first projection and 15 or above for the second projection. If I utilize this investment concept and choose coins with similar numbers I can reasonably expect a 10-15 X overall. I’ll post a few others I find interesting for this bull run in the coming posts.
My thoughts, not advice Oklah. Cheers
