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Radar recap before the breakoutPROFZERO'S TAKE - RADAR RECAP Ever since the very first edition of our daily Parlay, Profs have repeatedly cited their radar to keep track of ongoing macroeconomic developments and forming views. It's about time then for a first full-blown recap of what we are looking at right now, and how do we see the next steps moving: World politics: The war in Ukraine has reshaped European geopolitics, forcing the EU to rethink its entire energy supply and security policy off from Russia, other than bringing the continent back to reassessing the readiness of its armed forces. The blockade of the port of Odesa exacerbated supply-chain tensions that had been simmering since 2021, pushing commodity prices to all-time highs in energy and fertilizers and ushering the risk of famine and social unrest in the Middle East and Africa due to shortage of cereals and calories at large. Meanwhile, the relationships between the U.S. and China remain tense over Taiwan, as the island remains exposed to a potential Chinese invasion - Bearish Monetary policy: Central banks around the world have finally taken inflation seriously, launching interest rate hike and balance sheet trimming plans in an attempt to cool price surges and yet preserve growth and employment in the real economy. U.S. data in May were in fact supportive, with Main Street adding 390,000 jobs and keeping unemployment as low as 3.6%. Yet, the effects of higher interest rates are going to be felt only as they trickle down through the economy, in the form of costlier mortgages for homeowners and more expensive or altogether barred access to debt financing for sub-investment grade nations and corporates. As a result, defaults could sweep the economy, as already seen by the failure of Sri Lanka to pay its foreign-currency debt; the looming default of Russia; and the collapse back in 2021 of Chinese constructions giant Evergrande - Neutral Equities: The secular bull run hit by equities since the fall of Lehman Brothers in 2008, and fueled by loose monetary and fiscal policy on both shores of the Atlantic, hit a major stop in Q1 2022, when investors rushed to the door, spooked by the prospects of Regulators draining liquidity from the system. As a result, Nasdaq plunged 30% from peak (November 2021) to trough (April 2022), while S&P 500 only teetered on the brink of a bear market (negative 19.9% peak-to-trough). Investor fled Growth stocks whose profits are deep in the future, hence exposed to greater discounting by higher interest rates, favoring Value equities thanks to the solidity of their balance sheets and capacity to generate income via dividends. ProfZero argues that within the very Growth space, Value-like equities do already exists - tech giant Microsoft (MSFT) for instance is America's best-rated company (AAA/stable) - Neutral Commodities: After a lost decade, and crude oil trading even in negative price territory for one day in 2020 (April 20, WTI crude contract settling at negative 37.63/boe), commodities came back roaring in 2022, in what analysts at Goldman Sachs have already dubbed the beginning of a new supercycle. ProfZero concurs that commodities - and their supply chains - have been taken for granted for too long; now, in the wake of de-globalization talks, developed as well as emerging economies find themselves rattled by the prospects of unsustainably high - or even unaccessible - key commodities like fuel and fertilizers, or even worse calories. Thinking one step ahead, ProfOne has set its eyes on the minerals of the future - cobalt, lithium and nickel - reminding that these are also highly concentrated in a handful of areas around the globe, thus possibly falling into the same supply trap of the commodities of the past century - Bullish Blockchain assets: A unprecedented "crypto winter" has gripped investors in the blockchain space, first sending BTC from all-time at USD 68,990 in November 2021 to USD 25,350 on May 12, 2022 (63% peak-to-trough), then decreeing the collapse of Terra/LUNA project in just 3 days on the second week of May this year. Yet, the blockchain space is showing remarkable resilience, with BTC resisting further slides and in fact potentially preparing for a new "golden age", as foreseen by venture capital fund Andreesen Horowitz. ProfZero remains focused on the superiority of the blockchain as a technology, capable to shape the next decade in information processing, automotive, entertainment, finance and healthcare - Bullish
CME:BTC1!Long
by ProfZero
BTC negating breakout could mean impending correctionINVESTMENT CONTEXT The epicenter of the Ukraine conflict is now Severodonetsk, where 70% of the strategically important eastern city had been captured by Russia, until a Ukrainian counterattack claimed it back The World Health Organisation (WHO) reported that there have been 780 confirmed monkeypox cases over the past three weeks in countries where the disease is not endemic The WTO dubbed the global risk for monkeypox as "moderate" U.K. sales in May fell 1.1% on a yearly basis, as consumers cut down on big-ticket items like furniture and electronics A global rush to secure lithium, nickel, cobalt and other key battery minerals from a handful of nations is sending commodity and battery prices to all-time highs Goldman Sachs senior chairman Lloyd Blankfein urged investors to "dial back" on negativity, seeing a rather possible "soft landing" for the economy PROFZERO'S TAKE ECB policy makers are clashing about when to stop reinvesting into the continent's government bonds, with some positing to act as early as this week. ProfZero keeps ECB - and now also Bank of England, BoE - policy making high on its radar, as but parts of the impending quantitative tightening have been priced by market In a rather choppy session, equities gave up much of the earlier gains on June 6 as bear momentum persisted. ProfZero concurs with The Economist on a recession in the making for 2023 or even 2024, as higher interest rates trickle down into costlier mortgages and liquidity dry-up for "zombie" corporates (i.e. firms that can't generate sufficient cash flow to make up for interest payments). Yet near-term breathers like China's reopening and the resilience of U.S. economy point to a rather mild crash. Will that be enough to absorb also the surge in commodity prices? Much of the answer lies in China, where Goldman Sachs just boosted forecasts May 20, June 1 and June 6: ProfZero called all BTC sell-offs indicating insufficient buy-side pressure. Now that the triangle trade is restored, a potential correction is brewing - a new call on leg (C) of short-term Elliott wave PROFONE'S TAKE ProfOne’s sees it about time to dig into container shipments, given that 90% of the world's goods are seaborne. Port bottlenecks, shortage of empty containers and land transport delays, worsened by Ukraine-Russia war and Chinese lockdowns, caused the well-known supply chains disruptions of 2021. Freight rates are in average five time higher now compared to pre-pandemic levels. While global carriers are enjoying the sixth straight quarter of record-high profits, prices do not see signs of abating. ProfOne agrees that China reopening and decline of consumer demand like in the U.K. could ease the situation, but there is no optimism about steep freight rates reduction just ahead of peak delivery season and ports congestion still at historically high levels PROFTHREE'S TAKE Building on China's Premier Li Keqiang warning in May that the economy is now facing bigger difficulties than those in 2020, ProfThree points out a contraction of China’s services activity for the third month in a row. In May, the Caixin gauge rose to 41.1 points after plunging to 36.2 in April, yet remained well below the 50.0 points level which separates growth from contraction. Referring to ProfZero’s recent reflection on the deflationary nature of services consumption, ProfThree is worried about the growing unemployment the sector is facing due to COVID-induced restrictions, and its effect on the economy. Profs are awaiting Chinese data on inflation due June 10, both PPI and CPI (Producers’ and Consumers’ Price Index, respectively). The print is considered one of the key factors in the People's Bank of China's decision on interest rates expected by the third week of June
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Did someone forget we are in a bear market?INVESTMENT CONTEXT JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated at a banking conference that investors should brace for a "hurricane right out there down the road and coming our way" At the same conference, Wells Fargo's CEO Charles Scharf added "the scenario of a soft landing is (...) extremely difficult to achieve in the environment (...) we're in today" U.S. manufacturing data for May positively surprised, with the index declining to 56.1 vs. analyst expectations of 54.5 - demand apparently remains strong even amidst supply-chain constraints choking retail Italy's natural gas distribution leader Snam bought a floating regasification terminal with capacity of 5 billion cubic meters a year from Golar LNG as efforts to diversify energy supply off from Russia gain pace President Joe Biden is expected to be visiting Saudi Arabia later in June to discuss greater OPEC+ commitment to lift crude oil production in a bout to lower prices PROFZERO'S TAKE Equities are failing to keep up the rebound attempted last week, on the back of still weak fundamentals and waning technical support - Nasdaq testing the 12k mark in particular testifies that a much-awaited bounce back in tech stocks simply can't hold for now. Tellingly, Jamie Dimon's meteorological metaphors muted from "big storm clouds" just on May 23 to a "hurricane"; ProfZero won't broadcast on The Weather Channel, but definitely concurs the winds of volatility will be blowing strongly for a few quarters more Encouraging signs from Saudi Arabia are tempering concerns of even higher crude oil prices due to Russia's output being squeezed by sanctions. OPEC+ largest producer indicated it will step in raising output should Russia's quota drop excessively - yet ProfZero argues that can't be expected happen too fast, given the cartel's clear liking for the current price environment. Call on President Biden to ease the increase ProfZero won't say "I told you" - the big red candle on page 3 does an already excellent job reminding BTC traded in overbought territory for almost 2 sessions. Calling the bottom now? Only on stronger fundamentals PROFONE'S TAKE ProfOne set its eyes on lithium, indicated by IEA as the mineral for which demand was growing the fastest. Lithium price ballooned 68% since the beginning of 2022, and car manufacturers do not anticipate any easing for several years, now that the European Parliament just voted to ban the sale of new cars with combustion engine from 2035. Lithium demand is growing so rapidly that ProfOne understands why Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk wants to integrate upstream into lithium production. Lithium shares a common issue in the commodity space - 80% of the world’s lithium is mined in just 3 countries, namely Australia, Chile and China. Yet another head-scratching factor amidst talks of de-globalization and tighter supply chains PROFTHREE'S TAKE This week was rich in Purchasing Manager’s Indices (PMIs) print for May in China. Both the official manufacturing PMI and the Caixin gauge beat expectations, ticking up from April lows. Although the figures remain below the 50-point level which separates growth from contraction, the negative trend seems to have come to an end (or a hold) thanks to lifting in COVID-19 restrictions. ProfThree sees optimism over Shanghai reopening to continue, yet warns against being too naive to exclude the probability of another variant coming. With China’s economy reeling and limited headroom for monetary stimulus due to soaring inflation, it is too early to call a rebound. Profs remain cautious about this year’s economic perspectives for the country - and in a certain way for the (ex?) globalized world at large
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Albemarle - Swing trade opportunityToday, an opening gap appeared on the daily chart of Albemarle; as a result, this offers an opportunity for a simple trade setup. We are currently bearish on Albemarle and expect a complete retracement of the opening gap. Therefore, we would like to set a price target for Alb at 198.44 USD. Illustration 1.01 Albemarle opened up almost 7%. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic turned bullish. DM+ and DM- performed bullish crossover. However, we think these are false bullish signals. We conclude this from a low ADX value. The daily time frame is deceptive. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the short-trade setup. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- perform whipsaws, and ADX contains a low value. That indicates the presence of a very weak trend. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NYSE:ALBShort
by Tradersweekly
5
$AEI Begins Breakout $TSLA+Solar+SmartHomes+Crypto$AEI A Smart Home builder began its next leg up today. The company which combines $TSLA vehicles with its homes which also utilize Solar Energy, Filtration systems for water, Organic Farming and Intelligent designs has been steadily putting out updates in addition to the CEO buying millions in shares over the last few weeks. The company is also in the crypto mining sphere and several other niche markets. Click below to find out more about the company. PT $10
NASDAQ:AEILong
by StockGuild
2
$AEI Possible reasons CEO bought 26 MILLION+ Shares since Dec 21Overview Sectors Pertaining to $AEI: 1. E-Home Community Development 2. REITs 3. Asset Management 4. Direct Sales 5. Information Technology 6. SPACs 7. Food & Beverage 8. Cryptocurrency Mining www.alsetinternational.com Outstanding Shares: 113,187,898 Insider Transactions Past 12 months: 12 Open market Buys for 44,144,981 Shares by CEO Chan 1 Sell 6,380,000 Shares by CEO Chan Chan bought 25,941,000 shares since December 2021 alone. Morgan Stanley owns 4,247,386 shares. Combined with all other Institutions they collectively own 17,167,969 shares or 15% of AEI's Outstanding Shares. $49,100,000 Cash on Hand $132,000,000 in Net Assets $55,000,000 in Carryover NOLs Gross profit increased YOY from 2020 to 2021 by 215% Other profit increased YOY from 2020 to 2021 by 538% Highest Price: $29.49 Feb 15th, 2021 Lowest Price: .25 cents Feb 21st, 2022 Current Price: .60 April 15th, 2022 Reason for decrease in share price since IPO launch on November 2020: A $50,000,000 share swap with $DSS in August 2020 which contributed to a share price decrease from $6.24 in Dec 31st 2020 to .672 by Dec 31st 2021 As of 31st December 2021, approximately 98% of the total number of outstanding warrants have been exercised by the respective warrant holders. This has brought in approximately $115 million worth of capital. The funds received from the exercise of the warrants has strengthened the Group’s working capital and financial position. ***Property Development Business*** Black Oak Project in Houston Texas: On approximately 177 acres of land - Phase 1 of the project (124 lots) has been sold to Raush Coleman Homes with an additional 569 single family homes planned. Ballenger Run Project in Maryland: Total: 689 Units - 479 Lots & 210 Multi-family Residential Units 100% PRESOLD to NYSE-listed homebuilding company, NVR, #4 Biggest Home Builder in the United States. Houston E-Homes Project: 10 Acres of partially developed land acquired to build Alset Villas with approx 63 E-Homes The community will feature a clean energy ecosystem and an amenity center that houses organic modular/vertical vegetable farming, a café, visitor residences, infant/childcare clubs, and social events venue. E-Homes will be built with energy efficient platforms, supporting solar energy, power walls, clean, sterilized airflow and advanced communication systems for stateof-the-art smart home and office platforms. Aligning with the vision of building a community founded on a sustainable carbon footprint, each E-Home will come with its own Tesla vehicle to promote electric vehicles for a sustainable lifestyle. ***Investment Property Business*** 109 Single family homes have been acquired for rental in the Woodland Lakes Subdivision, NorthPark Woods Subdivision, Sorrento Bay Subdivision and Santa Fe Subdivision. Woodland: 39 Properties 23% Occupied Northpark: 53 Properties 53% Occupied - Each property will be accompanied with the use of a Tesla vehicle. Sorrento: 10 Properties Santa Fe: 7 Properties All properties are strategically located in highly valued locations close to popular recreational sites. ----All of the above property developments are currently debt free to mitigate interest rate hike risks---- ***Direct Selling Business*** $AEI's Subsidiary HWM World Inc. has reported $7.4 Mil in revs for the 2021 Fiscal Year the company has since expanded into major cities in South Korea. ***Information Technology Business*** In 2021 the company successfully launched the GigWorld Mobile App in Malaysia and are launching pilot tests for direct sales companies in the US and Asian markets. ***SPACs Business*** Alset SPAC Group Inc. (“Alset SPAC Group”) was incorporated in Delaware, US on 14 January 2022, Alset SPAC Group is an investment holding company which will hold the Group’s investment pertaining to special purpose acquisition companies. ***Cryptocurrency Mining Business*** The Company had on, 15 March 2022, incorporated in Singapore a wholly-owned subsidiary, Alset Mining Pte. Ltd. (“Alset Mining”). Alset Mining will primarily be engaged in investment within the cryptocurrency mining industry. www.alsetinternational.com Outlook by CEO Chan: "We anticipate that the effects of the global pandemic will subside in 2022 and expect business conditions to improve. This would produce a strong cyclical recovery, a return of global mobility and strong growth in consumer and corporate spending. The Company’s management team has strategically positioned the Group to seize opportunities both during a global recovery and if pandemic conditions persist. In either scenario, we look forward to reporting strong results to our shareholders." PT: $10+
NASDAQ:AEILong
by StockGuild
1
Unlikely Lithium Americas (NYSE: $LAC) Will Get Much Cheaper! 💯Lithium Americas Corp. operates as a resource company in the United States and Argentina. The company explores for lithium deposits. It owns interests in the Cauchari-Olaroz project located in Jujuy province of Argentina; Thacker Pass project located in north-western Nevada; and Pastos Grandes project located in the Salta province of Argentina. The company was formerly known as Western Lithium USA Corporation and changed its name to Lithium Americas Corp. in March 2016. Lithium Americas Corp. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
NYSE:LACLong
by Bullishcharts
4