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#Bitcoin long term log scale analysis #btcusd $btc #cryptoBitcoin long term log scale analysis: To analyse the percent change of bitcoin over the long term period. What we are seeing here is two major corrections from bitcoin since double digits prices . 1st one when btc crossed the 250 level barrier. It lasted 91days with a 74% drop in price, in the same period the RSI dropped 52% 2nd one when btc crossed the 1000 level barrier. It lasted close to 406days with 87% drop in price and RSI dropping 71% in the same period to a low of 27.5 Currently we are in the 3rd major correction that is seen afer btc broke the 10k level and faced exhaustion while coming close to 20k We've seen 71% drop in prices so far(196days) while the RSI in the same period has dropped 54% to a low of 41.3 . The 91 Days correction (-74%) was till the weekly 30MA(green) & 78.6fib support of the move till 259 The 406 days correction (-87%) was till 152 level that was a prev resistance level, in the 78.6-88.6 fib region Btc found decent support at the weekly 100MA during this correction period. Currently the weekly 100MA is at 4607 78.6fib support is at 4328 Previous swing high: 4980 will also provide good support
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by rajista
2
BTC - Birds Eye View / FractalsMy first publication on TV, some of you may know me and my privately shared charts, some of you may not, either way thanks for reading. This correction is looking eerily similar to the one that occured in 2014. RSI - looking at the level of support on RSI I believe we should have a bounce here similar to the 2014 fractal, this should take us to the top trendline of this downtrend in the 9k area before resuming our journey to the macro bottom trendline at 4k Stoch RSI - Stoch RSI is making a very similar W bottom shape, further supporting an incoming bounce CMF - unlike the 2013 correction, the Chaikin Money Flow indicator is racing towards the 0 line, similar to the 2014 correction, if the fractal is adhered to, then the bounce to 9k should result in a hesitation near the 0 area, before finally plunging below for the run to the bottom macro trend line. Elliot Waves, Rising Wedge - Macro trendlines seem to be painting a massive rising wedge, within this wedge there are 5 macro waves (A-E within the wedge, you could label these 1-5 if you wish, and you could start wave A in August 2013, with the 2012-2013 action making 1-5 waves with an ABC correction, but for this macro outlook I have left them out, as we end up with the same result at this point anyway). With regards to the B wave being a long complex bleed of a correction lasting almost 2 years, whilst this current wave D is set to complete most likely sometime this summer and is making a fairly simple zig zag pattern, this is in accordance to the Elliot Wave rule of alternation. Where does this leave us? I believe once we reach the bottom macro trend line at around 4k, we will have one more euphoric bull run within the wedge to make the E wave (or 5th wave), to meet the upper macro trend line one more time, one would have to watch the charts to see exactly where along the trend line it touches, but for now I could see this ending somewhere between 70 and 80k around 3/4 along the wedge, (controversial opinion incoming) at which point the bitcoin bubble may finally well and truly pop, we can run off with our gains and wait for the dust to clear to pick up the projects that survive and have real long term potential (the ones that arent shitcoins), think picking up stocks like AMZN in 2002 after the dot com bubble.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by zooby
7
BTC - ALL POSSIBLE OUTCOMESAll possible outcomes for #btc this year. At the beginning of 2018, the year end prediction was around $40,000 USD by December. However, the correction lasted longer than expected and almost half the year has passed, turning the previous prediction quite unrealistic, as the price would have to appreciate some 400% in the next 7 months. The logarithmic chart drawn below shows us all possible movements for the next few months. The support line initiated in 2015, which was a result of the 2014 correction. The two other support lines begin at the beginning of the last major price appreciation at $5400. In the Long term, the perspective is that BTC's price action will continue to rise. But what is also apparent is that the correction has not yet finished. Our target price on the down side is between 5,500 and 4,000 USD. The resistances have being projected using the descending triangle formed by the intersection of the long term support and the angles of the most recent corrections.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by VictorWallerSadalla
CLOAK/BTC (CloakCoin) “Last Move Hit >17X! New Wedge Formed!”CLOAK/BTC, 5/23/18, analysis completed at 9:00 PM EST, by Michael Mansfield.  Hi trader friends, for this post I am using “3 day” price bars with Candlestick wicks removed. And, we are using Log Scale, which can make a huge difference in look and analysis results. Read why below. But first... BOTTOM LINE FOR CLOAKCOIN: CloakCoin is likely in the late stage of a cyclical correction down. Cyclical UP-move due next. Must first break above this wedge formation @ 0.000148 (or higher, to be safe). 1st measured move price target up from there = 0.60 to 0.0066. 2nd target up = 0.0133, the highest yellow dashed line. 3rd target up = 0.0175, the upper paralleled channel line (white) on or around December 21, 2018, if we get the breakout up. Cycle highs are due November 9th and December 21st, 2018, for these two cycles. Bullish view negated if a 4 hour close below 0.00076 (dashed pink breakdown line). If breakout down, target becomes a likely consolidation down to 0.0002950 to 0.0002350 area. CloakCoin has been around since 2014 and, like some successful cryptos, has experience a few huge moves to the upside. Watch this one. MEASURED MOVE TARGETS HAVE WORKED WELL ON CLOAKCOIN. TARGET FOR EARLIEST MOVE ON THIS CHART: I measure the first all-time high and the subsequent lowest low move (1st vertical green arrow, far left of the chart). Copied that arrow, and added that price move amount to the first wedge breakout point of 0.00023 in March, 2017 (second vertical green arrow). That price range amount added to the prior wedge breakout point forecasted and matched the next all-time high in June, 2017, of 0.0038 on a closing basis! Subsequent price move amounted to a 16.5X move from the breakout point! That was not even from the low of the price swing before the breakout up. That would have been a move of 34.5X! WOW! Big move and perfect symmetry again (we talked about symmetrical price moves on our last post). CURRENT PRICE TARGETS: I measured the price range from the all-time high of rounding it to 0.0038 (closing basis) to the Andrews Pitchfork lower support line (lowest solid red line moving upward) at 0.0001886. Then, add that price range to what is likely to be the next breakout at the cyan (light blue) wedge resistance line (moving down off the all-time high tapping the recent swing high on a closing basis, on April 16th, of roughly 0.0001480. That range measures to an initial price target of 0.0066 area, a roughly 44x potential move! This potential move does not look like a 44x move because of the log scaling, but it would be! WEDGE BREAKOUT UP NEEDED BY MID JULY: VOLUME FORCE OSCILLATOR SUPPORTS BULLISH CASE: Klinger Volume Force, in the lower window, is trending up within its oscillation. It is likely to hit its lower support line within a week or two, then move higher as price rallies toward a wedge breakout. Be ready to buy the breakout up! The dashed white line is the Volume Force oscillator’s support line, from two prior swing lows ago, is a risk point for a breakout down instead of up. This is the same theory as breakouts from a wedges 2nd swing high or low breakout point. The 2nd swing point offers a high probability of a sustained move, but less of a move had you acted sooner. CYCLES: Longer-term cycle is up until December 3-12th. Shorter-term cycle (cyan color) is moving down until July 9-12 then up until November 9-12, 2018. Since larger cycles almost always dominate, the downward movement of this smaller cyan cycle may bottom sooner than the smaller cycle suggests. DISCLOSURE:   This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!   Cheers!  Michael Mansfield CIO  
CLong
by UnknownUnicorn1613901
2
SIMPLE IS BETTER -> BTCUSD 1W LOG downtrends breakouts analysisBITSTAMP:BTCUSD SIMPLE IS BETTER, so I'll keep it short. Elements on the chart: - Teal line - THE uptrend - Two dotted lines - long-term resistances (and targets) - White lines - downtrends - Pink circles - the current situation reference to the past one - Green drawing - my (rather unreliable) projection of price Long-term charts tend to tell the truth more often, as they are less susceptible to manipulation. So far every downtrend (white line) breakout at this scale was legit (= no fakeouts). Of course patterns do repeat until they don't , but let's be reasonable - BTC does respect downtrend breakout pattern since always. Why the hell would I bet against it now? The facts end here, the rest is my speculation. So I think we are in the same spot as marked by the first pink circle. The pattern is even similar. If so, we should see a pullback to the second yellow (dotted) resistance (same as in the past) This would project BTC at around $50k at end of this year. Of course be prepared for anything . Watch if the pattern will hold.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by scolilay
6
TRUST the whales, LOVE the whales, BE th.. no.Go with the whales. I want to start an open discussion on the psychological side that whales love to manipulate so nicely. (this goes for little whales on alts as well) We all know that whales eat tiny fish that are really tasty. And so if you don't want to be eaten do not stand in their way. It's as simple as that. But the natural question that occurs in one's minds is, How do I know when a whale wants to eat (me)? Bitcoin is at its crucial/crux point for the last few weeks and one could argue that the crux is always the present moment but let us leave that for another discussion maybe. We all seen the recent "anomaly" in crypto that occurred on 2018-04-12 where whales killed many standing fish and furthermore attracted a lot more from alts so that they can get in at lower prices. It was an amazing move and an isolated case concerning Bitcoin and ALTS/BTC pairs (the ALTS/USD prices went up along with BTC/USD). There was to be expected a big move from the whales after such a long stagnant period. The point that I am trying to get across is think like a whale: "If the market is going for some time on a more or less straight line how can I f*** up the market and make nice profit? OOo look FISH (mmmmm) :) that are still in FUD and FoMO and don't really know where to go... let's kill some." See, in this case, you just had to wait them make the first move and buy some cheap alts (ALTS/BTC pairs or ALTS/USD pairs as well) and probably swing trade them. Don't try to resist them and understand that they always want to squeeze the most out of the market and in the current state of the market even more so. That is one of the reasons why is still think we will get to see a lower BTC bottom. I won't get into prices on this educational idea, for that you can check/follow:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by qqqpoilove
SUB/BTC Trading Opportunity SUB is looking very bullish . I have signaled entry at 0.00004715. Now it had reached the 50% gain. It is getting resisted by the previous high at 0.00007250. Looking for the break out. New entry can be made when the 0.00007250 level breaks and closes above. The final target will be at 0.00011801, which will gain about 65%. Good Luck! This is not a financial advice, and please trade at your own risk. If you like this analysis please hit like so I can publish more analysis in the future.
S
by blee300
NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YETRight now, it's make or break for Bitcoin. We are currently testing December's resistance line. On the Auto-Scale, we broke through that line already, but not on the logscale. The overall sentiment is bullish and I don't get why to be quite honest with you. Yes, we had a 30% increase in two weeks. Yes, we are forming higher highs and higher lows short term. However, that does NOT change the fact that we are far away from being in a bull market. People tend to forget what the longterm price action is telling us. Notice how each time the RSI reached 60 level while price touched the resistance line, BTC dropped big time . We've been forming lower highs since December . What's so bullish about that? Additionally, I see BTC forming a huge rising wedge on the daily chart, which, combined with the afore mentioned factors, is anything but "obviously bullish" . The 12.500$-11.200$ has proven to be a key zone multiple times. I'm going to turn bullish, once we get a sustained breakthrough at that zone. Right now, I see three potential scenarios for BTC. 1 . Price fails to break through the resistance and we get a nasty drop towards a new low (I'm anticipating 5.500$ - 5.000$) and see how things go from there. 2 . We get a low volume break through and form some sort of a double top at the blue zone ( 9.000$ - 9.300$ ) and fall below the rising wedge, forming a new low. 3 . We actually get a trend reversal (less likely in my oppinion) and retest the 11k$ level. Anyways, right now is not the time to take either long or short positions. Whales are doing their thing and the overall price behavior is anything but predictable right now. Price is increasing, while volume is decreasing. There are random pumps & dumps taking place. Before taking any positions, I highly recommend everybody to WAIT for a UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE CONFIRMATION. That's it from my side, I'm going to keep you guys updated! Regards Shaheen
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by ShaheenFahmy
10
BTC - Bull or Bust?It is an important moment for the long term trend of BTC. Looking at the simple log chart you can see that we are coming to the end of a wedge that was formed between a crucial upward support line in red and the downward resistance trend line in green. If BTC breaks above the green trend line and confirms the line as support, that would be an extremely bullish scenario and would likely be able to easily hit the 78.6% retrace. From there we would likely see heavy resistance at ~$9850. If it can break this, I will put one horn on. if it can conquer $11800 resistance, i'll put the other one on and the bear will be slain. If BTC confirms the green line as heavy resistance and breaks down below $7750, it will signal a short down to around the $6850 area, and it could potentially go lower. I believe this would heavily destroy the market sentiment and we could potentially break down below the red line and see a 100% retrace. If it goes down further, the next couple stops would be likely be ~$5350 and ~$4800 based on the volume profile and old supports from before the ATH. It is important to watch exactly what happens and WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION before making trades. *All of this is not financial advice, I am not a financial adviser. I am just merely sharing likely scenarios based on this crucial moment in time*
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by TheCryptobaught
2