Bitcoin vs Gravity - The 30 Week Moving Average Challenge

As a general rule, you should not consider hodling any asset that is below the 30 week moving average, the same applies here to Bitcoin. Until Bitcoin is able to cross over the 30 week moving average, expect the overall momentum to be downward and all bull rallies to fail at or before the point of the 30 week moving average. When/if we close above the 30 week moving average, expect the gravity to change and to pull it upwards.

We recently tested the 30 week moving average and as you can see, it hasn't gone well so far. To get above the 30 week moving average I believe Bitcoin will need some major news in it's favor, such as an ETF being approved. Once we get above the 30 week moving average, I believe we'll see institutions fomo into Bitcoin as Mike Novagratz suggested. Until then, the weekly MA will continue to be an area you should consider taking profit.

Note: This is a log chart and I drew the 30 week MA (Cyan) above the ghost candles to only provide a general idea of how far down we can go. As you can see, we may hit the main upward supporting trendline before crossing over the 30 week MA, or we may cross over the 30 week MA tomorrow. Either way, the safest thing to do is wait until we close above it.

Trade active:

Here's a chart I made back in June (see timestamp on the screenshot). You'll see that I predicted we would go to the 200ma from 6150. The 200ma (basically the same as 30 week ma) has been resistance two other times already this year and stopped Bitcoin's most recent bull run near 8,500. In 2014, you'll see the damage the 200 day ma (aka 30 week ma) did to Bitcoin. If I had to choose one indicator, for any asset, to tell me the overall health condition of the asset, it would be the 200 day ma.