BTC Breaks Structure — Dead Cat Bounce or Demand Reaction?Bitcoin has just broken down decisively from the descending trendline and EMA cluster, confirming a short-term bearish shift after prolonged compression. The impulsive sell-off signals distribution resolution, not random volatility, as price sliced through prior balance with strong momentum. BTC is now reacting inside a key support zone around 91,800–92,200, where short-term buyers are attempting to absorb sell pressure. A technical bounce from this area is possible, but as long as price remains below 94,200–94,500 (former support turned resistance), any upside should be treated as corrective. A clean rejection from the trendline retest would likely trigger another leg lower, targeting 90,900–91,000, aligning with the next liquidity pocket.
Only a reclaim and hold above 94,500 would invalidate the bearish continuation scenario and reopen upside rotation.
➡️ Bias: Short-term bearish, watching for reaction vs rejection at demand.
LONG
EURUSD Breaks the Downside Channel — Is the Retest the EntrYEURUSD has just delivered a clear structural shift on the H1 timeframe, breaking out of a well-defined descending price channel that had controlled price action for multiple sessions. This channel was respected cleanly on both sides, confirming it as a valid downside structure rather than random consolidation. The breakout itself is impulsive, with strong bullish candles pushing price decisively above the channel low, the internal swing structure, and the EMA cluster. This type of expansion signals short-covering and fresh demand entering the market, not merely a technical bounce. However, from a professional trading perspective, the breakout alone is not the optimal entry. Price is now approaching a critical retest zone, where the former channel resistance and dynamic EMA resistance converge. This area is technically significant:
- If price pulls back and holds above the broken trendline, it confirms a bear to bull transition.
- Acceptance above this level would validate the move and open the path toward 1.1660, followed by the higher liquidity target near 1.1695–1.1700.
On the flip side, a failure at the retest, especially with bearish rejection wicks or strong bearish closes back inside the channel, would invalidate the bullish scenario and warn of a false breakout, potentially dragging price back toward 1.1580–1.1550.
➡️ Bias: Bullish continuation only if the retest holds
➡️ Key focus: Reaction quality at the broken channel
➡️ Market state: Transition phase patience is critical here
This is no longer a chase trade it’s a reaction trade.
EURUSD – 1-Hour Timeframe - Tradertilki AnalysisGood Morning Traders,
I have prepared an EURUSD analysis for you on the 1-hour timeframe.
My friends, EURUSD is currently at the 1.16350 level. From here, I will open a buy position.
My targets:
1st Target: 1.16528
2nd Target: 1.16988
My friends, I share these analyses thanks to each like I receive from you. Your likes increase my motivation and encourage me to support you in this way.🙏
Thank you to all my friends who support me with their likes.❤️
BTC Compressing at Demand — Triangle Break or Final Shakeout?Bitcoin is currently holding above a clearly defined demand zone, while price remains capped below a descending trendline, creating a compression structure. Selling pressure has weakened, but buyers have not yet shown enough strength to force a decisive breakout.
As long as the demand zone continues to hold, BTC may form higher lows and attempt a trendline breakout, which would open the path for a recovery move toward the upper resistance near the recent highs. A clean break and close above the descending trendline would confirm bullish continuation.
Conversely, a failure to defend the demand zone would invalidate the bullish setup and expose BTC to a deeper pullback toward lower liquidity levels.
➡️ Key focus: Demand zone reaction and confirmation at the descending trendline.
EUR/USD at a Decision Wall: Relief Bounce or Just Another SellEUR/USD on the H1 timeframe is currently in a corrective phase within a broader bearish structure, and the chart you shared captures this context very clearly. After the sharp impulsive sell-off, price found temporary acceptance inside a well defined demand (support) zone around 1.1595–1.1600, where selling pressure stalled and short-term buyers stepped in. This reaction produced a technical bounce, but it is important to note that this bounce has remained corrective in nature, not impulsive.
Price has now pushed back toward the 1.1635–1.1640 resistance zone, which aligns closely with:
- Prior breakdown structure
- The downward-sloping EMA acting as dynamic resistance
- A lower-high formation relative to the previous swing high
This confluence significantly weakens the bullish case.
The current candles show overlapping price action and rejection wicks, suggesting that buyers are struggling to regain control. As long as EUR/USD remains below the resistance zone, the probability favors a rotation back toward the support zone, not continuation higher.
The projected path you drew a pullback followed by a retest of the 1.1600 demand area is structurally sound. This would represent a normal bearish continuation pattern: relief rally → lower high → rotation lower.
Only a clean H1 close above the resistance zone with acceptance would invalidate this bearish bias and open the door for a deeper recovery. Until that happens, upside attempts remain selling opportunities, not trend reversals.
Key takeaway:
This market is not building strength it is distributing under resistance. Unless buyers prove otherwise, the dominant bias remains bearish continuation toward the support zone.
EURUSD Pressed Against the Downtrend On the H4 timeframe, EURUSD remains firmly locked in a bearish market structure, with price continuing to respect a well-defined descending trendline that has capped every recovery attempt. The broader picture is clear: this is a controlled downtrend, not a capitulation move.
Structurally, the market has been printing lower highs and lower lows, while price consistently trades below the EMA cluster, reinforcing bearish trend alignment. Each bullish swing has been corrective in nature, lacking impulsive follow-through a classic sign of weak demand and dominant sellers.
The recent sell-off pushed price into the 1.1575–1.1580 support zone, where we are now seeing a short-term reaction. This bounce is technically expected, as this level has previously acted as demand and liquidity support. However, context matters: support inside a downtrend is not a buy signal it is a decision zone.
From here, two scenarios stand out clearly:
Corrective bounce scenario: Price may grind higher toward the descending trendline and EMA resistance zone around 1.1650–1.1665. If bullish momentum stalls there, that area becomes a high-probability sell zone, aligned with trend continuation logic.
Bearish continuation scenario: Failure to build acceptance above the current support, or a clean breakdown below 1.1575, would signal renewed sell pressure and open downside continuation toward 1.1520 and lower liquidity pools.
Importantly, the rounded corrective structures drawn on the chart highlight distribution behavior, not accumulation. Buyers are reactive, not proactive — while sellers remain positioned at premium levels.
➡️ Trend bias: Bearish
➡️ Key resistance: 1.1650–1.1665 (trendline + EMA)
➡️ Key support: 1.1575
➡️ Best approach: Sell rallies, not chase bounces
Until EURUSD breaks and holds above the descending trendline with strong momentum, any upside should be treated as corrective not reversal.
ETH Lost the Accumulation – This Breakdown Shifts the BearishHello Traders....On the H1 timeframe, Ethereum has just delivered a critical structural signal by breaking decisively below the prior accumulation zone, confirming that the range was not continuation but distribution. The sharp impulsive sell off from the upper boundary of the range is not random volatility it reflects a clear rejection from value and a transition into a bearish phase.
For an extended period, ETH was compressing inside the 3,260–3,400 region, where price respected the EMA and rotated cleanly. However, the most important detail is how the breakdown occurred. Price did not drift lower gradually; instead, it collapsed impulsively through the range low and the EMA 98, signaling that buyers were no longer defending value. This type of move typically marks the start of a markdown cycle, not a temporary stop run.
After the breakdown, ETH is now attempting to stabilize around the 3,210 area, but this should be viewed as a weak corrective pause, not a base. Former range support has flipped into resistance, and price is struggling to reclaim it. This behavior is consistent with bearish market structure, where rebounds are sold and upside follow-through remains limited.
The next key area of interest lies at the 3,150–3,160 support zone, which represents the first meaningful demand below the range. If price continues to fail below 3,220, a rotation toward this zone becomes the higher-probability scenario. Any shallow bounce into the 3,240–3,260 region would likely serve as liquidity for sellers, rather than a signal of renewed strength.
From a cycle perspective, ETH has transitioned from accumulation → distribution → markdown. Until price can reclaim the broken range low and hold above it with acceptance, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. Buyers had their opportunity inside the range the market has now made its decision.
In summary, Ethereum is no longer consolidating it has resolved lower. As long as price remains below the former accumulation zone, bearish continuation toward deeper support levels remains the dominant technical scenario, and rallies should be treated with caution rather than optimism.
Bitcoin Swept Liquidity Below the Range On the H1 timeframe, Bitcoin has just completed a clean liquidity sweep below a prolonged sideways consolidation, followed by an immediate reaction from dynamic trend support. This move is technically significant, because it was not a slow breakdown it was a sharp stop-hunt driven sell-off, suggesting liquidation rather than true trend reversal. For a long period, BTC was trading inside a sideway distribution zone beneath descending trendline resistance. Price failed multiple times to reclaim the upper boundary of this range, showing buyer exhaustion. Eventually, the market resolved lower with an impulsive breakdown, flushing stops below the range low and driving price directly into the ascending trendline support that has been respected since the start of the broader uptrend. The reaction at this trendline is critical. Price has already printed a short-term bounce from this level, signaling that buyers are still defending the higher-timeframe structure. As long as BTC holds above this ascending support, the move down can still be classified as a corrective leg within a larger bullish trend, not a full bearish reversal. However, context matters. Former range support around 94,400–94,800 has now flipped into resistance. Any upside move into this zone should be treated cautiously, as this is where sellers previously controlled price. A reclaim and acceptance above this area would confirm that the breakdown was a false move and open the door for a continuation push toward 95,800 and higher. If price fails to reclaim the broken range and instead loses the ascending trendline support, the bullish scenario becomes invalid. In that case, the market would be signaling a deeper corrective phase, with downside risk expanding further as structure weakens. In summary, Bitcoin has just executed a liquidity grab below consolidation and is now sitting at a technical inflection point. Hold above trend support and reclaim the range, and the bullish structure survives. Lose it, and the market transitions into a deeper correction. This is a moment where patience and confirmation matter more than prediction.
EURUSD Is Still Bearish – This Bounce Is Just a ReactionOn the H1 timeframe, EURUSD remains firmly in a bearish market structure, with price continuing to respect the descending trendline and trading below the EMA 98. The broader context is clear: sellers are still in control, and recent bullish candles should be read as corrective reactions, not a change in trend.
The impulsive drop into the 1.1585–1.1590 support zone triggered a sharp bounce, but this move is best classified as a liquidity reaction after an extended sell-off. Price quickly rebounded from demand, yet failed to reclaim the broken trendline or establish acceptance above dynamic resistance. This behavior is typical in downtrends, where markets bounce to rebalance before resuming the primary direction.
Structurally, EURUSD continues to form lower highs beneath the descending trendline, and the EMA is acting as a ceiling rather than support. The zone around 1.1628–1.1640 is particularly important, as it aligns with both horizontal resistance and dynamic trend resistance. As long as price remains below this area, upside attempts lack structural backing.
The projected path highlights a likely scenario where EURUSD attempts a modest push higher into resistance, then rolls over and resumes its bearish trajectory. If selling pressure returns, the market is likely to revisit the 1.1585 support zone, and a clean break below this level would open the door for a deeper continuation lower toward 1.1550 and beyond.
From a cycle perspective, this market is still in a distribution-to-markdown phase. Buyers are reacting at support, but they are not strong enough to shift control. Until EURUSD breaks the descending trendline and holds above resistance with acceptance, rallies should be viewed as selling opportunities, not confirmation of a trend reversal.
In summary, EURUSD is not stabilizing it is pausing within a downtrend. The structure remains bearish, momentum favors sellers, and unless key resistance is reclaimed, the path of least resistance continues to point lower.
Dead-Cat Bounce or Smart Money Re-Accumulation?1. Market Context & Structure
On the 1H timeframe, Bitcoin remains in a broader corrective structure after failing to reclaim the prior resistance band around 95,600–96,000. That zone has now been validated multiple times as active supply, capping upside attempts and forcing price to rotate lower. The most recent move was a sharp impulsive sell-off, driving price directly into a well defined support zone near 92,000–92,300 a level that also aligns with prior reaction lows.
This was not random selling. It was a liquidity-driven move.
2. Liquidity Sweep & Reaction
The strong bearish candle into support effectively:
- Swept sell-side liquidity below prior range lows
- Triggered stops from late longs
- Forced weak hands out of the market
Importantly, price immediately stabilized after the sweep, forming small-bodied candles and a short-term base. This reaction suggests absorption, not continuation selling — a key distinction.
The labeled liquidity zone above price also explains why BTC was vulnerable: price spent extended time consolidating there, building liquidity that was eventually targeted.
3. Support & Resistance Framework
Major Resistance: 95,600 – 96,000 → Untouched supply, bearish unless reclaimed
Liquidity Zone: ~93,800 – 94,500 → Likely magnet for a corrective bounce
Key Support: 92,000 – 92,300 → Current demand response area
As long as this support holds, downside momentum is paused, not reversed.
4. Likely Scenarios
🔼 Bullish Relief / Mean Reversion (Primary Short-Term Scenario)
Price holds above 92k
Forms higher lows on LTF
Rotates back into 93.8k → 94.5k liquidity zone
Potential extension toward 95.5k resistance if momentum builds
This would be a corrective bounce, not a confirmed trend reversal.
🔽 Bearish Continuation (Invalidation Scenario)
Clean breakdown and acceptance below 92k
Failed bounce / weak structure
Opens downside toward 90.8k – 91.2k next demand cluster
Acceptance below support shifts bias firmly bearish again.
5. Trader’s Read (Professional Bias)
This move looks like liquidity engineering, not panic
Buyers are responding, but structure is still corrective
Longs are tactical, not positional
Shorts favored again if price shows weakness near resistance
6. Execution Insight
Avoid chasing green candles from support
Best longs come from confirmed higher low above 92k
Best shorts come from rejection at liquidity or resistance zones
Summary
BTC just completed a textbook liquidity sweep into support. The reaction suggests a relief bounce is likely, but until price reclaims and holds above 95.6k, this remains a corrective phase inside a broader distribution structure. Smart traders don’t predict they let liquidity show the way.
EURUSD Is Not Reversing — It’s Respecting the Downtrend 1. Market Structure: Clean & Disciplined Downtrend
EURUSD is trading within a well-defined descending channel, clearly respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. The structure is bearish by design, not chaotic lower highs and lower lows are consistently maintained. Each orange-circled area on the chart highlights failed bullish attempts. These are not random rejections; they are systematic sell-side responses at the channel’s upper boundary, confirming strong supply control.
This is a trend market, not a range.
2. Trendline & Price Behavior
The descending resistance trendline has been respected multiple times:
- Price rallies into resistance
- Momentum weakens
- Sellers step in aggressively
- Structure rolls over into continuation
The most recent pullback failed once again near the upper channel, validating this zone as an active short area, labeled clearly as “Downtrend Trade”.
As long as price remains below this trendline, bullish scenarios are counter-trend and low probability.
3. Current Positioning & Momentum
Price is currently consolidating after a minor corrective bounce, but this bounce:
Lacks impulsive bullish candles
Shows overlapping price action
Remains capped below trend resistance
This is distribution before continuation, not accumulation.
The white projected path reflects the higher-probability scenario:
➡️ a minor consolidation → another leg lower toward the lower channel boundary.
4. Key Levels & Trade Logic
Dynamic Resistance: Upper channel trendline
Short Bias Valid While Below: ~1.1640–1.1660 region (trend-dependent)
Downside Continuation Target: Lower channel near 1.1550–1.1580
Any bullish breakout must:
- Break the channel
- Hold above it
- Show impulsive continuation
Until then, selling rallies remains the dominant strategy.
5. Professional Trader’s Read
This is a high-clarity trend environment:
No need to predict reversals
No need to overcomplicate structure
Simply trade trend + location + rejection
The market is offering repeated, clean short setups the kind professional traders wait for.
Summary
EURUSD is not forming a bottom. It is printing disciplined bearish structure inside a descending channel. Every rally into resistance is an opportunity for sellers, not a signal of reversal.
In trending markets, the edge belongs to those who trade with structure not against hope.
ETH Sweeps Demand — Reset Before the Next Expansion?ETH has just delivered a sharp sell-off into a clearly defined demand zone, breaking down from the prior upside structure and flushing late buyers. This move looks more like a liquidity reset than a trend reversal, as price is now reacting around a high-interest support area rather than accelerating lower.
The previous accumulation zone has failed, confirming short-term weakness. However, the current reaction inside demand suggests sellers may be losing momentum after the impulsive drop. If ETH holds above the support premium zone, a corrective base could form before price attempts to rotate back toward the 3,27x–3,32x resistance range.
A clean reclaim and acceptance above the former demand-turned-resistance would open the door for a push back into the resistance premium zone near 3,38x–3,40x.
Conversely, failure to hold current support would expose ETH to a deeper pullback toward the 3,05x liquidity zone, completing a full corrective leg before any sustainable upside resumes.
➡️ Key focus: Demand zone reaction and structure shift confirmation.
Bitcoin After the Flush: Structured Recovery or Just a TechnicalOn the BTC/USDT H1 timeframe, price has just completed a textbook distribution-to-expansion sequence, and the current rebound needs to be read very carefully. For most of the session, Bitcoin was capped inside a well-defined accumulation price range around $95,000–$95,600, with price compressing between the EMAs. This behavior signaled order absorption and liquidity engineering, not strength. The failure to hold above the EMA cluster was an early warning that buyers were losing control. That warning was confirmed by the strong bearish expansion candle, which sliced cleanly through the range low and the EMA support a clear range breakdown and distribution confirmation. This move flushed late longs and activated sell-side liquidity, driving price directly into the 92,300–92,600 demand zone, where we now see the first meaningful reaction. The current bounce from this support is technically valid, but structurally it remains corrective, not impulsive. Price has not yet reclaimed the broken range or the EMA, meaning the broader bias is still neutral-to-bearish unless proven otherwise.
Your projected upside path aligns with a multi-step corrective recovery:
- Target 1 (~$93,600): First logical reaction level where short term sellers may defend.
- Target 2 (~$94,600): Former range low /resistance zone this is the key decision area.
- Target 3 (~$95,500): Full range reclaim, which would be required to shift structure back to bullish acceptance.
As long as price trades below $94,600–$95,000, any rally should be treated as a pullback into resistance, not trend continuation. A clean rejection from that zone would favor another leg down or a prolonged consolidation below the range. Only a strong H1 close and acceptance back inside the old accumulation range would invalidate the distribution thesis and open the door for sustained upside.
👉 The bounce is real but the trend is still on trial.
Patience at resistance will reveal whether this is smart money reloading or simply a dead cat bounce after the flush.
GBPCHF Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the GBPCHF next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.0706
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.0730
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURAUD Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURAUD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 1.732.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 1.737 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
USD/CHF BULLS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello, Friends!
Bullish trend on USD/CHF, defined by the green colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is oversold based on the BB lower band proximity, makes me expect a bullish rebound from the support line below and a retest of the local target above at 0.800.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
USDCHF On The Rise! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the USDCHF next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 0.7980
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 0.7997
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ is Approaching an Important Support Level! Hey Traders,
In tomorrow’s trading session, we are closely monitoring NAS100 (NASDAQ 100) for a potential buying opportunity around the 24,900 zone. NAS100 remains in a well-defined uptrend and is currently undergoing a healthy corrective pullback, approaching a key trendline confluence and the 24,900 support-turned-resistance area, which may act as a strong demand zone for bullish continuation.
As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk responsibly.
Trade safe,
Joe.
EURUSD: Bullish Setup After Corrective Channel PullbackHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD is trading within a broader bullish structure, supported by a rising trend line that has guided price action from the recent swing lows. Earlier in the move, price formed a clear accumulation range, where the market consolidated before initiating an upside breakout. This breakout was followed by continuation to the upside, confirming strong buyer participation and a bullish shift in market control. After the impulsive move higher, EURUSD entered a corrective phase, forming a well-defined descending channel. This pullback appears corrective rather than impulsive, as price action remains orderly with overlapping candles and decreasing momentum — a typical bullish retracement behavior. Importantly, this correction is occurring above the higher-timeframe ascending trend line, preserving the overall bullish structure.
Currently, price is reacting from the Support Zone around 1.1600–1.1620, which aligns with: The lower boundary of the descending channel. A key horizontal support level. The rising trend line from prior lows. This confluence increases the probability of buyers stepping in. On the upside, the Resistance Zone near 1.1680 represents the prior breakout level and the top of the corrective structure. A successful reclaim of this zone would confirm the end of the correction and signal bullish continuation.
My Scenario & Strategy
My primary scenario remains bullish as long as EURUSD holds above the 1.1600 Support Zone and respects the rising trend line. I expect buyers to defend this area and attempt a push higher toward the 1.1680 Resistance Level (TP1). A clean breakout and acceptance above 1.1680 would confirm bullish continuation and open the path toward higher targets.
However, a decisive breakdown below the support zone and trend line would weaken the bullish structure and suggest a deeper corrective move or potential range formation. For now, structure favors buyers while price holds above support. As always, manage your risk and wait for confirmation at key levels.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
XAUUSD: Bullish Channel Intact - Upside Toward 4,660 in FocusHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current XAUUSD setup.
Market Analysis
XAUUSD is trading within a broader bullish structure, supported by a well-defined upward channel that has guided price action from the recent swing lows. Inside this channel, gold has consistently formed higher highs and higher lows, confirming sustained buyer control. During the advance, price experienced several corrective pullbacks, all of which were contained within the channel, highlighting strong demand on dips. As price moved higher, XAUUSD broke above a prior consolidation area and successfully retested the former resistance as support, confirming the strength of the breakout. This area is now marked as a clear Support Zone around 4,570–4,580, which aligns with the mid-channel structure and previous breakout reactions.
Currently, price is consolidating just below a major Resistance Zone near 4,650–4,660, located at the upper boundary of the ascending channel. Multiple tests of this area show hesitation, but there is no clear bearish rejection yet. The price action near resistance appears corrective and controlled, suggesting consolidation rather than distribution. As long as price holds above the key support zone, the bullish structure remains intact.
My Scenario & Strategy
My primary scenario remains bullish while XAUUSD trades above the 4,570–4,580 Support Zone and continues to respect the upward channel structure. A sustained hold above support increases the probability of another attempt to push toward the 4,650–4,660 Resistance Zone. A clean breakout and acceptance above this resistance would confirm bullish continuation and open the door for further upside expansion.
However, a strong rejection from resistance followed by a decisive breakdown below the support zone would weaken the bullish bias and signal a deeper corrective move within the broader structure. Until that happens, market structure favors buyers, with dips into support viewed as potential continuation opportunities.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
19/01/26 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $97,925.71
Last weeks low: $90,140.82
Midpoint: $94,033.27
So close, yet so far!
After a strong start to the week BTC pushed through the all important $94,000 level with strength and purpose reaching a high of ~$98,000, shy of the bullish target at $100,000. However the resistance approaching that level is clearly strong as price was quickly rejected and pushed towards retesting the $94,000 level.
This coincided with last weeks outlook as the weekly high, after two clear retests price consolidated above the level, price compression takes place and from there the probability of a breakdown increases dramatically. Which is how we have started this week with an aggressive move lower within the opening hour of the week. In essence the bulls are back to square one, trying to flip the $94,000 level.
The bears are still in control on the larger time frame, the Midpoint is the key battleground area once again with whoever controls that line looking to push towards either the weekly high for the bulls or the weekly low for the bears.
BTC Stalls Below Resistance — Distribution Before the Next Bitcoin on the H1 timeframe is showing clear signs of exhaustion beneath a well-defined resistance zone around 95,700–96,000, following the strong impulsive rally from the lower range. The initial breakout was clean and aggressive, but price has since transitioned into choppy, overlapping price action, signaling a loss of momentum rather than continuation.
Structurally, BTC has failed to reclaim the previous high near 97,600–98,000, and each rebound into the resistance zone has been met with selling pressure and weak follow-through. The short-term structure now resembles a lower-high sequence, suggesting that buyers are no longer in control of expansion, but instead distributing positions at premium prices.
From a trend and EMA perspective, price is still hovering above the EMA 89, but the distance between price and EMA has narrowed significantly. This often precedes a mean reversion move, especially when price is repeatedly rejected from resistance. The EMA itself is acting as a magnet rather than support, increasing the probability of a pullback toward the 94,000–94,100 demand zone, where stronger bids may reappear.
If BTC fails to break and hold above 96,000 with strong volume, the current structure favors a bearish continuation toward lower liquidity, with 93,100–93,200 as the next major downside objective. Any upside attempts without a decisive breakout should be viewed as sell-the-rally opportunities rather than trend resumption.
➡️ Market state: Distribution / range at resistance
➡️ Bias: Bearish below 96,000
➡️ Key downside targets: 94,000 → 93,100
➡️ Invalidation: Strong acceptance above 96,000–96,200
At this stage, Bitcoin is not trending it is deciding, and the structure currently favors a downside resolution unless buyers regain control decisively.
BTC Is Stalling at Resistance — Distribution Before the Next Dro1. Current Market Structure
Bitcoin remains in a broader bullish context, but the short-term structure on H1 is showing clear signs of exhaustion. After a strong impulsive rally from the 91K–92K region, price expanded aggressively into the 97.5K–98K resistance zone. Since then, momentum has faded and the market has shifted into sideways-to-lower consolidation, suggesting buyers are no longer in full control. This is not a reversal yet, but it is no longer a clean continuation either.
2. Key Zones & Market Positioning
Major Resistance Zone: 97,600 – 98,000 → Multiple rejections and long upper wicks indicate heavy sell pressure
Immediate Support: 95,700 → Breakdown here would confirm short-term weakness
Dynamic Support (EMA 89): ~94,100
Deeper Support Targets:
- 93,100
- 91,800 (major demand / prior base)
As long as price trades below the resistance zone, upside potential remains capped.
3. Liquidity & Price Behavior
The rally into 98K appears to have swept buy-side liquidity, followed by rejection a classic sign of distribution at the highs. The current choppy price action reflects order absorption, not accumulation. Buyers are defending locally, but without strong follow-through, increasing the probability of a downside rotation.
4. Short-Term Market Scenari os
🔽 Primary Scenario – Bearish Pullback (Higher Probability)
Price fails to reclaim 97.6K–98K
Breakdown below 95.7K confirms distribution
Price rotates toward EMA 89 (~94.1K)
Extension targets: 93.1K → 91.8K
🔼 Alternative Scenario – Bullish Continuation (Lower Probability)
Clean breakout and acceptance above 98K
Strong volume expansion
Opens the path toward higher highs above 100K
Without a confirmed breakout, this scenario remains secondary.
5. Trading Perspective
Bias: Sell rallies into resistance, not chase longs
Best approach: Patience wait for confirmation below support
This is not accumulation at the highs; it is a pause after expansion
Summary
Bitcoin is no longer trending impulsively.
It is stalling at resistance, distributing liquidity, and preparing for a corrective leg.
As long as the 97.6K–98K zone holds, the roadmap remains clear:
Rejection → Breakdown → Pullback to key demand zones.






















