News from France Weighs on European Financial MarketsNews from France Weighs on European Financial Markets
According to Reuters, France’s new Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, unexpectedly resigned on Monday just hours after appointing his new cabinet.
This news has underscored the deepening political crisis in France and placed significant pressure on European financial markets – this morning:
→ The euro is weakening. The EUR/USD rate has fallen below 1.1660 and is near September’s low.
→ European shares are falling. The French stock index CAC 40 (France 40 on FXOpen) has dropped by around 2%.
Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart
On 26 September we noted that:
→ fluctuations in the EUR/USD rate over recent months had formed an ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ under seller pressure, the price had moved towards a strong support line (the lower boundary of the channel).
At that time:
→ the rate was at point D;
→ we suggested that the lower boundary of the long-term channel would act as significant support for EUR/USD, noting that clear signs of seller initiative increased the likelihood of an attempt to break the channel bearishly.
Indeed, we subsequently saw the effect of the lower boundary → the price climbed to peak E. However, this emphasised the continuing dominance of bears, as this peak on 1 October extended a series of lower highs and lows A→B→C→D→E.
Today’s euro weakness, driven by the French political crisis:
→ constitutes an important bearish breakout of the long-term ascending channel;
→ provides further grounds for plotting a downward trajectory on the chart (shown in red).
Bulls may hope that further declines will be halted by the 1.1660 level, which has served as support since early September. However, a bearish breakout of this level would open the way for EUR/USD to drop towards the key support at 1.1450.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
M-forex
EURGBP: Growth & Bullish Continuation
The recent price action on the EURGBP pair was keeping me on the fence, however, my bias is slowly but surely changing into the bullish one and I think we will see the price go up.
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GOLD: Bearish Continuation & Short Signal
GOLD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry - 3940.7
Stop - 3954.8
Take - 3915.7
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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DAX INDEX | Elliott Wave + SMC + Fib + Market CycleDAX INDEX | Super Cycle Wave (3) In Progress | Micro Wave (iv) Correction Expected | Elliott Wave + SMC + Fib + Market Cycle
This macro outlook on the DAX Index (GER40) combines Elliott Wave Theory , Smart Money Concepts (SMC) , and Fibonacci Analysis , tracking the long-term price structure from the 1990s into the expected 2029 Super Cycle top .
We are currently nearing the completion of Micro Wave (iii) inside Super Cycle Wave (3) , with a correction expected as Micro Wave (iv) before a final leg Wave (v) to complete the 20-year Super Cycle advance.
🌀 SUPER CYCLE STRUCTURE (Wave Count Recap)
🔵 Supercycle Wave (1)
📈 Topped in 2000
📐 Five-wave impulse from early 90s
💡 Marked the first major peak of the new macro bull cycle
🔴 Super Cycle Wave (2)
🕰 2000–2009
📉 Multi-year W-X-Y complex correction
🔻 Pulled back to 0.618 retracement of Wave (1)
📍 Bottomed Jan–Feb 2009 — Smart Money accumulation zone
🚀 Supercycle Wave (3) — Now in Progress (2009–2029 Target)
This is a multi-decade impulse wave , subdividing into Micro Waves (i) through (v) .
🟠 Micro Wave (i)
🕰 2009–2018
✅ Clean 5-wave impulsive structure
🔓 Broke above Super Cycle Wave (1) high
📊 Confirmed initiation of Wave (3)
🟠 Micro Wave (ii)
🕰 2018–2020 (COVID crash)
🔻 Pulled back to 0.50 retracement of Wave (i)
📦 Retested key order blocks
💧 Liquidity swept beneath 2016–2018 lows
📈 Smart Money reaccumulation before major expansion
🟠 Micro Wave (iii) — Currently Unfolding
🕰 2020 – Expected top by end of 2025 or early 2026
🚀 Strongest wave in the structure
🔼 Targeting 2.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave (i)
🎯 Target zone: 30,941 (~32K)
📊 Multiple internal impulses have formed
🧠 Price delivery:
Consistent BoS
Minimal retracement
No parabolic blow-off yet → confirming institutional flow
🟠 Micro Wave (iv) — Correction Expected Next
🕰 Expected: 2026 to early 2027
🔻 Projected retracement:
0.382 – 0.5 of Wave (iii)
Target zone: 23,350 – 22,165
💧 Confluence with:
Sell-side liquidity pools
Prior OBs and imbalance zones
⚠️ Reaccumulation phase likely before final rally
🟠 Micro Wave (v) — Final Advance to Complete Supercycle Wave (3)
🕰 Expected top by 2029
🎯 Target range: Above 32,000, possibly toward 35,000+ depending on extensions
🔄 Will mark the peak of Supercycle Wave (3)
📉 Anticipate a major correction in Supercycle Wave (4) after that
📐 FIBONACCI LEVELS OF INTEREST
Structure Key Fib Levels
Supercycle (2) 0.618 retracement of (1)
Micro Wave (ii) 0.50 retracement of (i)
Micro Wave (iii) 2.618 extension of (i) → 30,941–32K
Micro Wave (iv) 0.382–0.5 retracement → 23,350–22K
Micro Wave (v) Possible extension to 38K+
🧠 SMART MONEY CONCEPTS (SMC)
🔓 Break of Structure (BoS) confirmed trend shifts at Wave (i), (ii), and internal impulses
📦 Order Blocks respected at retracement zones (2020 low, 2022 correction)
💧 Liquidity Grabs below previous lows fuel impulsive breakouts
🧱 Price Delivery = Institutional — no euphoric parabolas yet
🎯 Expect engineered liquidity sweep before Wave (iv) reaccumulation
📌 CONCLUSION
We are now nearing the completion of Micro Wave (iii) inside Super Cycle Wave (3) of the DAX. Price is approaching major extension targets (30,941–32,000), from where Wave (iv) correction is due.
This pullback (2026–2027) is expected to offer high-probability re-accumulation opportunities within a Smart Money demand zone before the final macro rally to new ATHs into 2029.
⚠️ After 2029 , expect a larger Supercycle Wave (4) correction phase.
📘 DISCLAIMER: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management.
NATGAS Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
NATGAS looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 3.336 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
My Stop Loss - 3.295
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 3.416
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USOIL On The Rise! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for USOIL below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 60.68
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 62.13
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
US100 Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for US100 below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 24770
Bias -Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 24845
Safe Stop Loss - 24731
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NZD/USD Holds Firm, More Upside Moves On The Way?Market Analysis: NZD/USD Holds Firm, More Upside Moves On The Way?
NZD/USD is also rising and might aim for more gains above 0.5840.
Important Takeaways for NZD USD Analysis Today
- NZD/USD is consolidating gains above the 0.5800 pivot level.
- There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.5815 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of NZD/USD, the pair started a fresh increase from 0.5755. The New Zealand Dollar broke the 0.5790 barrier to start the recent rally against the US Dollar.
The pair settled above 0.5800 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested 0.5840 and is currently consolidating gains. There was a minor pullback below 0.5825 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.5754 swing low to the 0.5842 high.
The NZD/USD chart suggests that the RSI is stable above 50. On the upside, the pair might struggle near 0.5840. The next major resistance is near the 0.5880 level. A clear move above 0.5880 might even push the pair toward 0.5920. Any more gains might clear the path for a move toward the 0.6000 handle in the coming days.
On the downside, immediate support is near the 0.5815 level and a major bullish trend line. The first key zone for the bulls sits at 0.5800 and the 50% Fib retracement. The next key level is 0.5790. If there is a downside break below 0.5790, the pair might slide toward 0.5775. Any more losses could lead NZD/USD into a bearish zone to 0.5755.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AUD/USD Holds Firm, More Upside Moves On The Way?Market Analysis: AUD/USD Holds Firm, More Upside Moves On The Way?
AUD/USD started a fresh increase above 0.6550 and 0.6575.
Important Takeaways for AUD USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar started a decent increase above 0.6575 against the US Dollar.
- There is a key declining channel forming with resistance at 0.6615 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD the pair started a fresh increase from 0.6520. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear 0.6550 to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.
There was a close above the 0.6575 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested 0.6630. A high was formed near 0.6628 and the pair recently started a consolidation phase. There was a minor decline below 0.6600.
There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6520 swing low to the 0.6628 high. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6615 and a key declining channel.
The first major hurdle for the bulls might be 0.6630. An upside break above 0.6630 might send the pair further higher. The next stop is near 0.6650. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6700 handle.
On the downside, initial support is near the 50% Fib retracement at 0.6575. The next area of interest could be 0.6545. If there is a downside break below 0.6545, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6520 zone. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6500.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USDJPY → Gap and retest of resistance on a neutral trendThe Japanese yen opens with a gap in the Asia-Pacific session and forms a distribution, within which it tests the resistance zone of 149.93 - 150.79.
The dollar is rebounding again, provoking a corresponding reaction in the markets. However, based on fundamental data, the decline may continue after the pullback.
Gap in USDJPY, distribution and entry into the resistance zone at high speed, there may not be enough potential for continued growth. There is no trend, the price is in a sideways market. A false breakout of 149.93 may trigger a correction towards the lower boundary of the gap.
Resistance levels: 149.93, 150.79
Support levels: 148.76, 148.09
If the currency pair is unable to continue growing, then a false breakout of resistance can be considered. A return of the price to the range on D1 may trigger a decline to support.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.18726.In the coming week, I'm hoping for a continued upward movement, so I decided to update the forecast.
If everything goes according to plan, the price is currently starting an upward movement in the wave “3” of the middle order. I believe that the price is quite capable of reaching the resistance area at 1.18726. Despite the fact that the top of wave “1” is likely to be updated - I would still prefer a target somewhat more reliable and closer.
Fundamental context
Lately, U.S. data keeps showing signs of slowdown — especially in the labor market. The latest ADP report came out negative, and forecasts for NFP remain weak, around +50K. That eases pressure on the Fed and slightly weakens the dollar.
In Europe, inflation picked up to 2.2%, which is above the ECB’s target. It means the central bank has no reason to rush with rate cuts — giving the euro some fundamental support.
So overall, the background fits well with my technical outlook: the dollar is losing momentum, and EUR/USD might continue higher in wave “3”, targeting the resistance zone near 1.1872.
GBPUSD: Gap Will Be Filled! 🇬🇧🇺🇸
There is a high chance that gap down opening will be filled on GBPUSD.
The price is going to reach a gap opening level soon.
Goal - 1.3476
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I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GOLD approaches the $4k mark:The upward wave hasn't stopped yetLiamTrading – GOLD approaches the $4000 mark: The upward wave hasn't stopped yet
Hello everyone,
Gold continues to maintain its impressive upward momentum as the DXY only slightly increases by 0.50% and is currently at 98.21 – a signal indicating that safe-haven flows still prioritize precious metals.
Currently, the technical structure on H1 shows gold is in a clear upward channel, with reaction zones accurately identified through Fibonacci and trendlines, aiming for the next major target of $4000/oz.
📊 Technical Analysis (H1)
Main trend: Strong increase, the Higher High – Higher Low structure remains solid
Main support zone: around 3890 – 3900, coinciding with the confluence of Fibo 1.0 + upward trendline
Psychological resistance zone: 3955 – 3999, corresponding to Fibo expansion 2.0 – 3.6
RSI is entering the 70+ zone, reflecting strong buying pressure but short-term correction signs need to be observed.
🎯 Today's Trading Scenarios
Buy scalping
📍 3909 – 3911
🛑 SL: 3904
🎯 TP: 3940 – 3955 – 3970 – 3990
Buy swing
📍 3888 – 3890
🛑 SL: 3882
🎯 TP: 3910 – 3925 – 3950 – 3975 – 3990
Sell scalping
📍 3956 – 3958
🛑 SL: 3964
🎯 TP: 3935 – 3910 – 3890
Sell swing
📍 3997 – 3999
🛑 SL: 4010
🎯 TP: 3975 – 3950 – 3925
🧭 Trend Analysis
With the current upward force and stable technical structure, the $4000 target is entirely feasible in the short term.
The preferred strategy is to BUY with the trend, waiting for pullbacks to optimize entry, avoiding FOMO at the peak.
Corrections to the support zone 3890–3900 will be a beautiful opportunity to open buy positions.
💡 I will continue to update detailed reaction zones & new plans in each session.
Follow me for the earliest updates on daily gold scenarios!
USOIL Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 61.469.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 57.974 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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USDCAD Is Bearish! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for USDCAD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 1.395.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.385 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
USDCAD – Testing a Major Resistance ZoneUSDCAD remains overall bullish, trading within a rising channel.
However, price is now approaching a key intersection between the upper trendline and a major resistance zone around 1.4000.
As price nears this confluence area, we’ll be looking for potential short opportunities, anticipating a possible rejection before any continuation higher.
The next support zone sits near 1.3750, where buyers might step back in if a pullback occurs.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
AUDUSD Is Very Bearish! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 0.660.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 0.658 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
XAUUSD Delivered Excellent profits [ 600 pips]Thanks to those traders who followed us and made profits 📈🙏 keep grinding 💪.
I booked profits on buying orders during Friday session, entering around 3857-3855 and exiting near 3930, while my shorter-term longs hit the 3910 target on today’s Tokyo session hike.
Going forward, I’ll continue buying dips from my key entry zones as long as Gold holds above the bullish trend till 4000
AUDJPY — Buy the Retest?AUDJPY remains overall bullish inside a rising channel. Price is hovering above a 96.0–96.5 support zone, which previously acted as resistance and now aligns with the channel’s lower boundary, a solid confluence area.
🔑 Key levels
Support: 96.0–96.5 (zone to watch for bullish rejection)
Resistance: 98.5 then 100.0 (round number / channel upper band)
📊 Scenarios
Bullish 📈 If price retests 96.0–96.5 and prints confirmation (higher low / bullish candle), I’ll look for longs toward 98.5 → 100.0.
Bearish 📉 A daily close below 96.0 would invalidate the setup and open room toward the next liquidity pocket near the channel low.
What’s your plan here => wait for the retest into 96s, or trade the continuation if momentum kicks in first? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Gold Technical Analysis – Is a Pullback Coming?XAUUSD is currently moving within a well-defined ascending channel, and the price is testing the upper boundary. This area acts as a dynamic resistance, and if the price gets rejected here, we could see a mild pullback back toward the support zone around 3,900.
If buyers manage to defend this support, the bullish structure remains intact and gold could attempt to push higher again. On the other hand, if support breaks, a deeper correction toward the lower boundary of the channel is possible, creating potential short opportunities for traders waiting for the right setup.
To identify an optimal entry point, watch for confirming signals such as a bullish engulfing pattern, long rejection wicks at support, or a sudden surge in buying volume. Risk management should always be your top priority. Make sure signals are clearly confirmed and apply a solid risk management strategy before entering a position.
What’s your take on this? Share your thoughts and strategies in the comments! And don’t forget, discussions in the TradingView community are a great way to sharpen your trading skills and grow together as traders.
XAUUSD: Stepping Up Within the Rising ChannelHello everyone, Kilian here!
Gold (XAUUSD) is currently in a strong upward trend, moving within a rising price channel. Recently, the price pulled back from the top of the channel and touched the lower boundary, where it faced significant resistance. This suggests that buyers are stepping back into the market, pushing the price higher once again.
If the bullish momentum continues, we could see the price break through the top of the channel, signaling a further upward move. Given the current market conditions, this scenario looks quite likely.
However, if the price closes below the lower boundary of the channel, the bullish trend could be invalidated, and we may see a shift toward a downtrend. At that point, we’ll need to be cautious and watch for any potential short-term pullbacks as the market adjusts.
USDJPY Will Go Up! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 146.741.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 149.744 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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