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BTC vs 116.7k–118k: breakout or FOMC rejection?__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is pinned below the 116.2k–118k supply after rebounding from ~107k, defending the 115.16k pivot. It’s a range-to-break with elevated intraday volumes against a cautious macro backdrop. Momentum: Range with a mild bullish tilt 📈 while 115.16k holds; a clean breakout needs > 116.74k. Key levels: - Resistances (4H/12H/D) : 116.18k–116.74k · 118.0k–118.8k · 124.28k (D). - Supports (2H/4H/W) : 115.16k–115.20k · 114.16k · 111.97k. Volumes: Normal on 1D; very high on 1H/30m/15m — a catalyst for a box breakout from 115.2k–116.2k. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H = Up; 6H/4H/1H = NEUTRAL BUY above 115.16k; 2H = NEUTRAL SELL — a close above 116.74k adds upside conviction; losing 114.16k reopens 111.97k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRE VENTE — a slight risk-off stance that contradicts the tactical bullish momentum; demand confirmations and smaller size. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic context: Higher-timeframe uptrend (12H/1D) but facing a tight 116.2k–118k supply wall — favor staged execution and confirmed breakouts. Global bias: Slight long bias while 115.16k holds; higher-timeframe invalidation on a clean daily close < 111.97k. Opportunities: - Long on breakout: Close/retest held > 116.74k aiming 118k/120k. - Tactical “buy-the-dip”: Reclaim of 115.20k after a sweep, stop below 114.16k. - Tactical short: Rejection at 116.7k–118k OR 30m/1H breakdown < 114.75k targeting 114.16k then 111.97k. Risk zones / invalidations: - Break below 114.16k invalidates intraday longs and opens 111.97k. - Strong reclaim > 116.40k–116.74k invalidates rejection shorts. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - FOMC: 25 bps cut widely expected; dot-plot and presser = volatility triggers; “sell-the-news” risk. - US Retail Sales (pre-Fed): could tilt the box breakout. - Softer China data: growth headwind; keeps risk appetite uneven. Action plan: - Long Plan : Entry 115.30–115.90 (reclaim/breakout) · Stop 114.16 · TP1 116.18 · TP2 116.74 · TP3 118.00 · R/R ≈ 1.5–3.0. - Short Plan : Entry 116.10–116.70 (rejection) or < 114.75 (breakdown) · Stop 116.90–117.00 (rejection) / 115.17 (breakdown) · TP1 115.16 · TP2 114.16 · TP3 111.97 · R/R ≈ 1.5–2.5. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher timeframes lean up, but the supply band at 116.2k–118k caps momentum. 1D/12H: Uptrend, compressing below 116.7k; a daily close > 118k would open 120k. 6H/4H/1H: Active range 115.16k ↔ 116.18/116.74k; buy-the-dip works above 115.16k if volumes confirm; intraday is whip-prone. 2H/30m/15m: 115.16k is the hinge; very high volumes create wicks — wait for clean retests; ISPD/MTFTI favor scalps while 115.16k is defended. Key divergence: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = NEUTRE VENTE vs MTFTI Up — keep size modest and demand follow-through post-break. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ FOMC is the key macro catalyst in a hesitant risk-on regime, while on-chain/flows remain more subdued than euphoric phases. Macro events: 25 bps cut expected; dot-plot and Powell Q&A as triggers; “sell-the-news” possible. US Retail Sales can pre-position flows; softer China data is a growth headwind. Bitcoin analysis: Pressing the upper band (116.4k) and 116.7k–118k supply; a clean close above 118k opens >120k; a decisive loss of 115k reopens 114.16k → 111.97k. On-chain data: ETF flows declining, derivatives more influential; range 110k–116k — sustained holds above 114k attract flows; below 108k raises HTF downside risk. Expected impact: Macro/on-chain mix argues for “confirmation first, size second”; it supports a cautious bias until > 116.74k breaks with volume. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is coiling just below 116.7k–118k into FOMC week. - Trend: Higher-timeframe bullish but capped; slight risk-off background (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = NEUTRE VENTE). - Prime setup: Confirmed breakout > 116.74k (retest held) toward 118k/120k; alternatively, a break < 114.16k puts 111.97k back in play. - Macro: FOMC is well priced — first move can be a head fake. Stay disciplined: seek confirmations and retests, scale in tranches, and let the market show persistence. ⚖️
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
BTC 112.5k Gate: Breakout or Fade the Range?__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is coiling around 111–112k, trapped between 112.0–112.5k supply and 110.1k/107.3k supports. The setup is mixed: HTF still up, MT corrective, LTF rebounding cautiously. Momentum: 📉 Slightly bearish in intraday/MT, with defended lows but lower highs below 112.5k. Key levels: - Resistances (12H–1W): 112.0–112.5k (local supply), 115.9k (720/12H PH), 119.7k (W PH). - Supports (4H–1W): 110.1k (4H PL), 107.3k (D PL), 98.3k (W PL). Volumes: Overall normal; moderate spikes on 15m during failed breakouts. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/1W Up, 4H–12H Down, 15m–2H Up → range confirmed; 112.5k remains the pivot to unlock 113.5k/115.9k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: VENTE (risk-off) — it confirms caution and caps rebounds below 112.5k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: HTF trend intact but MT corrective — stay tactical, trade the range until 112.5k breaks. Global bias: “NEUTRAL SELL” below 112.5k; cautious bias invalidated on a 1H/2H close > 112.5k. Opportunities: - Momentum buy: confirmed breakout above 112.5k → target 113.5k then 115.9k. - Range sell: fade clean rejections at 112.0–112.5k while 4H–6H remain Down. - Defensive buy: wick + reclaim at 110.1k (or 107.3k) with tight risk. Risk zones / invalidations: - Below 110.1k: opens 107.3k, then 98.3k. - Above 112.5k: risk of squeeze toward 115.9k (invalidates shorts). Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Weak US jobs → higher odds of a Fed cut (risk-on if FOMC guidance cooperates). - OPEC+/WTI easing → less inflation pressure, supports dovish narrative. - JPY/JGB risk and US office CMBS stress → volatility noise and “hard asset” bid. Action plan: - Plan A (bullish breakout): Entry > 112.6k (1H/2H close) / Stop < 111.6k / TP1 113.5k, TP2 115.9k, TP3 119.7k (R/R ~1:2–1:3). - Plan B (range short): Entry 112.0–112.5k on rejection / Stop > 112.8k / TP1 111.0k, TP2 110.1k, TP3 107.3k (R/R ~1:1.5–1:2.5). __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTFs hold the uptrend structure while MTs correct; LTFs attempt cautious recoveries below 112.5k. 1D/1W: Uptrend intact above 104k; 115.9k–119.7k is the directional cap, need strong closes to open 124.3k later. 4H/6H/12H: Corrective with lower highs; concentrated supply at 112.0–112.5k — break required to free 115.9k. 15m/30m/1H/2H: Tech rebound off ~110k; attempts to reclaim 111.8–112.2k but volume confirmation is still tentative. Key divergence: LTF bullish vs MT bearish → prioritize tactical setups (confirmed breakout or mean reversion at the edges). __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro leans dovish, while on-chain/flows are neutral to mildly supportive. Macro events: Soft US labor boosts cut odds; WTI easing on OPEC+ supply signals lowers inflation pressure; watch JPY/JGB for FX/vol shocks. Bitcoin analysis: Consolidation 104k–116k; potential supply overhang from Movie2K wallets (~45k BTC); spot ETF inflows slowing curb external momentum. On-chain data: Cooling funding, rising stablecoin supply (constructive mid-term), STH sensitive around 114k–116k. Expected impact: Dovish FOMC would ease a reclaim above 112.5k → 115.9k; hawkish tone likely sends price back to 110.1k then 107.3k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is in a “decision range” 110.1k–112.5k inside the broader 104k–116k channel. - Trend: HTF bullish, MT bearish, LTF rebounding → cautious bias below 112.5k. - Key setup: Break & hold > 112.5k to target 113.5k/115.9k; otherwise fade 112.0–112.5k. - Macro: Rising odds of a Fed cut + softer WTI favor a squeeze if the technical trigger appears. Stay disciplined: trade confirmation, not anticipation — 112.5k is the key. 🔑
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin // Week #30 // Consolidation continues (for now)Hello, Let's start with a macro view. Beginning with the 4wk chart, we can see that a doji star has formed. On the 2wk chart, we are nearing the end of a hanging man. Here, the Money Flow Index is overbought and heading down. The MACD is also showing signs of weakening. Zooming in closer, on the weekly chart, we can see a bull flag formation. The bottom of the bull flag is showing us buying interest. Near these levels is where I am buying. The MFI broke below the 80 mark about 3 weeks ago and is now hovering around 56. It should be noted that during the bull run of 2017, the weekly MFI didn't break below 50 and we shouldn't expect to break below it during this run. Also, I placed a possible wick zone from $8500-$7500. Anything is possible with Bitcoin and we should always be prepared. On the daily, we are currently printing a Breakaway candle formation. The MFI here is nearly below 40 & the MACD is also heading down. On a micro level, we can see on the 12hr chart (also on the 4hr - not pictured) that a rising wedge has been validated. Here, I have a couple of support/buying opportunities. Based on my macro & micro TA, it is my view that we are going to continue consolidating, while finding great day trading opportunities. Most importantly, long term buying opportunities should also be taken here. Technically and fundamentally we are in a bull market. Market action discounts everything: My current buying zones on the dips are within $10220 - $10000 Breaking below that we can find great buying opportunities near the bull flag support range of mid-low $9700 - low $9000 If we wick down below the bull flag, $8500 - $7500 is possible. Please comment and like. May the force be with you. - B
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by B_version256
1
Research! Research! Research! I smell blood.I don't disagree with the notion that right now we are set up almost identical to the market in 2014. I don't disagree that we probably have a while longer before we see a bull run. But I am pretty confident we aren't going to see 2+ years of bear market and I don't think we will see a 2+ years of bull market after. I think what we are experiencing is the final days of true manipulation, the beginning days of true adoption, and a culmination of some really strong forces. The noise will continue, but the rise will be more steady. Let me explain... Maybe we haven't hit rock bottom but with the bulls crying their eyes out and people shorting so sure of themselves, I would say that it's a pretty good time for some or all to get wrekt. Think about it. There is a moment when you can make both animals cry. The minute of reversal where it's obvious that a massive gain is coming, but hasn't yet so the shorts get liquidated because of the lack of coverage. And then there are the bulls that so badly want something to moon, but in reality it's going to be a slow steady climb. Going back to the rate of adoption, think of the bell-curve that happens. No where in that curve is there a break. Adoption and price accelerate through about 1/3 of the total life cycle. There is however sometimes a chasm, much like the described perilous valley in the accepting of humanoid robots, that causes confusion before all of the early adopters get on board. The only thing there is to determine is how long the life of a cycle will be. In my last post I messed around with GDPs of five countries. I found at just one percent of their GDP in crypto-currency, the number is actually a little more than what the current market cap was listed at that day of 299B. In a perfect world right now we would see enough growth through adoption that we could take profits and new money coming in would offset the profit taking. But instead let's see what a macro story can tell us. Right now there just aren't enough retail stores taking crypto to make a difference but what happens when that threshold is crossed. 1. Some one buys something with crypto. 2. Price of crypto goes up due to fiat entering a market. 3. Amount of fiat in cirrculation goes down 4. No reason to sell crypto for fiat because enough retail to sustain oneself. 5. You get paid in crypto from work. 6. You buy more stuff gradually shifting more GDP to crypto. 6. Cycle repeats. This is what we should be striving for but due to where we are in this adoption cycle right now we are still ironing out wrinkles and people don't see a bigger picture. So Research, Research, Research! Prop up your own currency and figure out how you can make actual differences. Lastly, sniff around for the blood. Look at opposing views and see who is either scared or overly-confident. Just like bulls think the market will go up even in the short term, bears tend to think they will continue going down in the long term. Refer to my Buddhist approach to investing for inner peace if you seek the middle ground. ;-)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by whiprush3
3
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: JNJ HOLDS LONG TERM TREND, SHORT TERM RISKJNJ micro picture currently contradicts macro one. On long term basis, JNJ has held the test of 10-year trend by falling below and then bouncing back up above the 10-year uptrend border (marked by 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean, now at 91) On short term basis, however, price has fallen below 1st standard deviations from quarterly (66-day) and 1-year (264-day) means, signaling continued downside probability. The downside risk remains until the price trades back up above short term risk border, marked by lower 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean (at 97 now)
NYSE:JNJ
by Killy_Mel
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: EXXON IS ON RISK OF FURTHER DECLINEExxon is in a complex situation - but overall risk is still to the downside at the moment. On long term basis, XOM fell out of 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean (at 76 now), but is still holding within 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean (although, below the mean itself) Thus XOM is on risk of decline there at least to 65 - which is the lower 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean, if price continues to trade below 76 On short term basis the risk (of decline into 65) is confirmed - price is trading below 1st standard deviations from both 1-year and quarterly mean (thus is in downtrend in relation to both short term means) The micro levels are alligned with macro levels at the moment, as can be seen on the chart
NYSE:XOMShort
by Killy_Mel
FX CHART OF THE DAY (2): GBPUSD IS ON BREAKDOWN RISKGBPUSD is on risk of a macro breakdown (see related chart) On short term basis the situation is now tradable - Pound is breaking below 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-h) mean, amid expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 st deviations from the weekly mean) Traders can pick shorts at the 1st standard deviation (1.5300) and stops at the weekly (1.5375) mean Traders also should be aware of volatile events, expected tomorrow!
Short
by Killy_Mel