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BTC margin long volume vs price on BitfinexAfter calling the recent drop from 12k to 7.9k , I got the sense that BTC hasn't bottomed yet despite many calling the bottom. So I started looking for other indicators and pieces of data that may corroborate this hunch. Initially I started looking at the long (BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS) and short (BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS) positions on Bitfinex as a way to gauge when to exit my margin positions. However, as I went back over the data we had (which admittedly isn't a great deal as Bitfinex only started providing the data on the 20th of August 2017), I started to notice that we topped out at around 32k of BTC longs. This coincided with a couple of major selloffs, including the last drop from 12k, and the prior one from 20k. Im not sure if this is a glass ceiling, or a hard cap, however it seems pretty clear to me that we are seeing divergence of BTC price vs number of long positions. ie. price is going down despite an increase in longs. I feel this provides some evidence towards the idea that we will push considerably lower due to a "long squeeze". I also mentioned a few days back in my prior post that if we close the week below the weekly 20EMA, we will head lower to the 50MA for support. A few days back Now I believe we are going down to between ~6k (+/- 500).
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGSShort
by crimsonronin
9
Short term BTC long playI have been in USDT during this downtrend. Looking at the 4 hour we seem to have corrected. If you look back on the BTC chart during corrections. It loves the pattern known as Adam Eve. You can read about it here. thepatternsite.com It is a useful pattern to learn. Once you learn it you are able to spot it and make long plays. They dont always come off, but are a good indicator of a trend change. My target is shown on the chart and will re-evaluate whether to stay in BTC or change back to USDT at this point.
Long
by sykes
Steller short opportunity.I have been watching Steller for a while now, trying to learn stuff. See the linked idea of what i think its a triangle playing out that can go either way. I am going to play a short here. I always lose on shorts so I will watch this and if it goes against me I'll close it. They can get out of hand and cost you money if you wait for them to turn around. Going to enter on a short timeframe close to 4600 if I can. Stoploss of 4750. Target of 36/3300. And if it goes down from the triangle, add to the short.
SShort
by sykes
3
ETC - To the Moon in the first quarter.This is for the HAI charting comp. I am personally playing this one for the next couple of weeks / months. I think we have started a new cycle with Ethereum Classic. Barring anything crazy happening and using smart stoplosses we can double or triple our BTC / Money with this coin. This is not a for people looking for quick profits. I think it is a good place to sit coins that are doing nothing for you. (I changed BTG for this) Want to get an entry in from 20k to 24k. I will be comfortable with a stoploss of 16k (bought under 20k so 4kish SL) Buy close to the trend. 20-24k - get a buy on the hour or 2 hour chart. TP1 - 30K TP2 - 40K TP3 - 60K SL - 3-4k from entry Shorterm target is 28-32k Main target is for 100% profit in the 40-45k region. You can also take profit in that region and buy again on the retraces around the first target of 30k for wave 5. Wave 5 I think will go past 60k,before a retrace. By that time we will have made 200% so, take profits and keep a few for some months and they could be worth $100's.
Long
by sykes
1
The fake trades on BTCCNYLooking for bottom truth in the recent volumes drop on btc, i made a volume compare tool. The reasoning is that if volume on btccny really disappeared due to the forbidden margin trading, there should be a big difference in the ratio since a few days ago. Blue and green lines are a ratio against the same base volume. the red line is a 5 day average of the 2 ratios. The idea is that while volume goes away in the china exchanges due to the margin trading evaporating, it should remain the same in western exchanges, so the ratio shows a big drop. BUT: 1 - the avg of volume ratios is so irregular, no clear correlation shows up 2 - the last days (from the "margin prohibition") have a little dip then spike, but appear well in the bounds the general fluctuation so, the recent volume drop was both in china and the west, and "fake margin" trades didn't impact market after all? comments welcome...
B
by deimosaffair
Lack of enthusiasm, Deutsche Bank and Margin DebtA divergence between the volume and the value of the index indicates a lack of enthusiasm with this new top. This ocurrs just before August, which is a typically bearish month, and under the systemic risk posed by Deutsche Bank. Moreover, NYSE Margin Debt chart reached a peak some months ago (see www.advisorperspectives.com). In my opinion, there is no substantial reason to expect a consolidation of the index above 2150, so be careful, because maybe we are listening to the swan song of the global financial market.
FX:SPX500
by JuanAugusto
1