SILVER: Move Down Expected! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 46.512 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 46.139.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
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Metals
SILVER Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for SILVER.
Time Frame: 15m
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 4,652.6.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 4,606.3 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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GOLD | Bearish Bias Holds Below $3,944 Amid Trade OptimismGOLD – MARKET OVERVIEW | Trades Below $4,000 as Risk Appetite Rises
Gold continues to slide, as optimism over a potential U.S.–China trade deal and improving global outlook weakens demand for safe-haven assets.
The metal is now down nearly 10% from its all-time high of $4,377 (Oct 20), with the recent rally losing steam as traders take profits amid signs of progress in trade negotiations between the world’s two largest economies.
Technical Overview
Gold dropped nearly $150, exactly as projected in our previous outlook.
The price remains under bearish pressure while below 3,944, targeting 3,893, and a break below that could extend the decline toward 3,855 → 3,818.
However, a 1H close above 3,944 would indicate a potential reversal, opening the way for a retest of 3,970 → 4,011.
Key Technical Levels
Pivot Zone: 3,932 – 3,944
Support: 3,893 · 3,855 · 3,819
Resistance: 3,970 · 4,011 · 4,053
Outlook:
Gold stays bearish below 3,944, with downside potential toward 3,855 if trade optimism persists.
Only a confirmed 1H close above 3,944 would shift bias back to short-term bullish toward 4,011.
XAGUSDXAGUSD price is in a correction phase, there is a possibility that the price will test the support level of 44$. If the price can hold above the level of 43.90, it is expected that the price will have a chance to rebound.
** Very Risky Trade
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Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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Gold (XAUUSD): Please wait for the correction to completeGold (XAUUSD): Please wait for the correction to complete. Market in HTF is bullish. Any sell opportunity is risky, although I missed a good one yesterday. Wait for the correction to complete. A good reaction to the highlighted area a good sign that gold will turn to bullish in MTF and LTF soon. Be patient.
Cheers
SILVER LONG FROM SUPPORT
SILVER SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 4,629.4
Target Level: 4,962.5
Stop Loss: 4,404.9
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 3h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking at two levels as potential for the long trades and target for the short trades. We ideally wanted price to push upside and complete the long target before turning and then completing the short target. During the early part of the week, we activated short and gave caution on longs only to see the aggressive decline which hit our short target and completed our bias level and red box targets for the week.
All in all, a decent week in Camelot with Excalibur guiding and the EA hitting another full house of completed targets on Gold.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
We're pondering on this bearish move and it’s giving us hints of a swing low so for that reason we’ve given the red box bias level at 4095 which will need to break for us to see a continuation of the move. Above there, we have immediate support at 4104 which if held can give us another bounce in the early sessions giving us a move upside into the 4140-50 regions initially.
Above that level there is a level sticking out sitting at 4173 with the extension level 4192 which if targeted is the level to keep an eye on for us. A break above there and it’s likely we will attempt to swing high from a lot higher up which we will need to navigate level to level. But a RIP there would be ideal if it happens with a clean reversal.
On the flip, we do want to see lower pricing on gold as we feel it’s not only needed, but it will give buyers better opportunities to get in for better positioning to carry trades upside into the higher target levels we have active. As we approach the end of the month, it's going to be another whipsaw and we would hope to complete the move, or, we'll most likely see some sideways accumulation leading into the next week.
KOG’s bias for the week:
Bullish above 4095 with the ideal target 4274
Bearish below 4095 with the ideal target 4025
RED BOX TARGETS:
Break above 4115 for 4123, 4125 and 4140 in extension of the move
Break below 4095 for 4080, 4065 and 4050 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
GOLD: Long Signal with Entry/SL/TP
GOLD
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long GOLD
Entry Point - 3901.6
Stop Loss - 3884.4
Take Profit - 3938.6
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Gold at a Critical Crossroad: Bounce or Breakdown Ahead?Hi!
The gold price is currently trading around $4,042, sitting just above a critical support area near $3,953.80. This gray zone is a key decision point for the next major move.
Trend Structure:
The broader trend remains bullish, moving within a well-defined ascending channel.
Double Top Formation:
A short-term double top has formed near recent highs, triggering a corrective move down into the channel’s midline and the gray support area.
Critical Support Zone ($3,953.80):
This level aligns with previous structure support and the channel’s bottom, making it a high-probability reaction zone.
________________
Scenario 1: Bullish Reaction (Primary Scenario)
If gold holds above the gray critical area and bounces within the ascending channel, we could see a renewed bullish wave.
Confirmation: A strong bullish reaction or higher low around $3,953–$3,980.
Target: The green target zone around $4,619.57, corresponding to the upper channel boundary and a potential measured move from the recent correction.
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown
If the gray area fails to hold, it could signal deeper downside momentum.
Trigger: A clean break and 4H close below $3,953.80.
Target: The pink support zone near $3,656.01, which aligns with prior accumulation and the lower channel boundary.
________________
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
XAUUSD: Bullish Reversal Setup From Triangle SupportHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup.
Market Analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) continues to trade within a larger bullish market structure, maintaining higher lows above its key ascending Trend Line. After a strong impulsive rally that pushed the price above the 4,200 resistance, the market faced rejection near the top of the Range and entered a corrective phase. This correction evolved into a triangle pattern, with price now testing the Triangle Support Line, aligning closely with the horizontal Support area around 4,020 – 4,000 — a historically important demand zone.
Currently, the price is consolidating near the lower boundary of this structure, showing early signs of stabilization. This region also coincides with the previous breakout point, adding further confluence for potential buyer interest.
My Scenario & Strategy
I expect the price to hold above the Triangle Support Line and form a bullish reversal structure, signaling that buyers are once again defending this level. A confirmed breakout above the Triangle Resistance Line would indicate renewed bullish momentum and a potential continuation of the overall uptrend.
My primary target zone lies around 4,215, where previous resistance and the upper range boundary converge. However, if the support near 4,000 fails to hold, it could trigger a deeper correction toward 3,950, where the next demand zone is located. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity for traders anticipating a rebound from a major technical confluence zone.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Update Two 4-Hour Gold Analysis
Hello Traders
So far, yesterday's analysis target has been touched, but the seller is still present in the market, and today the 4-hour seller entered the market, and the long-term 4-hour analysis that we had last week gained more strength, the 4-hour sellers target was defined as 3773, which was explained in the relevant post about the entry of sellers. So, every pullback will still have more sellers in the market. For the sell, all the yellow lines of the TPs settled by the candlestick failure act as current resistance and are considered the pullback zone.
Good luck.
Links to the two analyses:
XAUUSD - Will Gold Continue to Fall?!Gold is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 30-minute timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. The reduction in its downward momentum in the demand range will provide us with a better risk-reward buying position. A move towards the supply range above the channel will be our next short trade!
Gold prices fell below $4,000 per ounce for the first time since October 10, following a sharp $125 decline.
According to a Reuters survey, the average gold price in 2026 is expected to reach $4,275 per ounce, while silver prices are projected to average $50 per ounce in the same year.
For 2025, the survey anticipates an average gold price of $3,400, up from $3,220 in the previous poll, while the average silver price is forecasted to rise to $38.45 from $34.52 previously.
Analysts at Nomura stated that U.S.–China relations have entered a repetitive cycle of tension, escalation, and temporary détente, likely forming a “new normal” in the long term.
Lu Ting, Nomura’s chief China economist, noted that the world’s two largest economies appear to be settling into a predictable pattern of “strain–escalation–pause”, which may define the framework of their relationship in the foreseeable future.
Recent trade talks in Kuala Lumpur hinted at a temporary easing of friction, with both sides reportedly considering limited concessions, such as extending tariff suspensions and resuming soybean imports from the U.S.
However, deep-seated disputes remain unresolved — including export restrictions on rare earth elements, compliance with trade commitments, and broader geopolitical disagreements — all of which cloud the outlook for bilateral relations.
Lu cautioned that while short-term cooperation may continue due to mutual economic dependence, long-term strategic competition between Washington and Beijing is expected to intensify.
Nomura believes this recurrent cycle of conflict and reconciliation will likely become the enduring pattern of U.S.–China relations.
Such a backdrop implies persistent volatility in global markets, particularly in commodities and technology sectors, which are highly sensitive to trade developments between the two nations.
Investors should prepare for alternating periods of optimism and renewed tension.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs against Canada may turn into a major self-inflicted setback, as the move faces both a legal challenge before the U.S. Supreme Court and bipartisan opposition.
Next week, the Supreme Court is set to hear a case focusing on Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify these tariffs. Trump initially invoked an emergency declaration related to fentanyl to impose them — despite the fact that such powers are typically reserved for sanctions against U.S. adversaries.
The case represents not only a test of the tariffs’ legality, but also a measure of Trump’s and MAGA’s influence over the Court.
Notably, Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, joined over 200 Democrats in sending a letter to the justices urging them to strike down the tariffs.
The oral arguments are scheduled for November 5, and the final ruling, which could serve as a major market mover, is expected sometime next year.
Currently, prediction markets estimate a 38% probability that the tariffs will be overturned.
At the same time, Morgan Stanley reported that U.S. dollar positioning has turned positive for the first time in several months, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the U.S. economic outlook.
This shift comes amid rising political instability in Japan and France, which has diminished the appeal of non-dollar assets and strengthened capital flows toward the greenback.
Strategists at the bank added that demand for downside protection against the dollar has declined, indicating that investors perceive a low risk of a sharp correction in the near term.
Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley warned that this uptrend might not be sustainable — if U.S. economic data, particularly employment figures, fail to show significant improvement, the dollar could again face renewed downward pressure, and rate-cut expectations from the Federal Reserve could rise.
Finally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bassent confirmed that five candidates have been shortlisted to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair:
Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder.
Bassent stated that one more round of interviews will take place, and he plans to submit the final shortlist to President Trump after Thanksgiving, with a final decision expected before year-end.
DXY Long-Term big surprise revealed by Gold! Hi Guys,
I've been doing some research on the DXY and Gold charts and I've been reading news headlines
For the past 20 years and trying to link it with both DXY and Gold charts and I've found out
Some interesting facts that literally flipped the market upside down.
So I pointed each even with the corresponding candle and I would love to know what do you guys
Think about this so feel free to comment and share your opinion on what's really going on behind
The scenes.
Gold Market Update: Correction Mode 3750/3500 USD possible🟡 Where We Are Right now
After ripping to fresh records, gold snapped hard — WSJ logged the steepest one-day loss in years last week and a follow-through weekly drop as longs unwound.
Analysts across Kitco and others frame this as a technical/positioning correction after a parabolic run, with a fight around the $4k handle and scope to probe $3,750 → $3,500 if selling persists.
Sentiment/flows flipped: GLD and other gold ETFs saw notable outflows into the selloff after heavy YTD inflows. That flow reversal is consistent with a near-term correction phase.
🔻 Why the Market Is Correcting Now
1️⃣ Positioning & Froth Unwinds
The rally attracted outsized speculative length; once momentum cracked, forced de-risking kicked in. WSJ called out “long unwind” dynamics; Kitco says the correction could persist for months as near-term drivers fade.
2️⃣ $4k Failed on First Retest; Technical Break Triggered Stops
Kitco flagged a “fight for $4k” with downside risk if that shelf gives. Once sub-4k prints hit, systematic sellers likely accelerated.
3️⃣ Flow Flip in ETFs
After massive 2025 inflows, GLD posted a sharp daily outflow during the drop — classic late-cycle reversal behavior for a momentum move.
4️⃣ Macro Balance Less Supportive at the Margin
Even with long-term tailwinds (deficits/geopolitics), the recent leg higher ran ahead of fundamentals. Kitco and others note easing physical tightness and cooling central-bank buying pace compared with earlier in the year, removing a key prop for spot.
⚙️ Near-Term Levels That Matter (Tactical)
$4,000 → Battle zone. Regaining and holding above turns near-term tone neutral.
$3,750 → First meaningful downside target; aligns with multiple analysts’ “healthy pullback” zone.
$3,500 → Deeper correction magnet if flows/positioning continue to bleed; widely discussed as a plausible washout level.
🔮 4–8 Week Catalyst Map (What Can Push Price)
🏛️ Macro / Policy
Treasury Quarterly Refunding (Nov 5): Mix/size guidance can sway the long-end, USD, and real yields — key for gold. A heavier bill tilt (and steady coupons) is less threatening than a surprise coupon ramp.
Fed Communication Cadence: With the Oct 28–29 FOMC just occurred, watch minutes (Nov 19) + any guidance shifts. A less-dovish tone or firmer real yields = near-term headwind; growth scares or easing bias = support.
US Data Prints: CPI/PCE, NFP, ISM — anything that re-prices the path of real rates. (Direction of real yields remains the single most important macro input.)
💰 Flows & Positioning
ETF Flows (GLD/IAU): Continued outflows would confirm distribution; a turn back to net inflows often leads price inflections.
COT Positioning: If spec length compresses materially, downside fuel diminishes — setting up a cleaner base. (Track weekly CFTC updates.)
🪙 Physical / Seasonal
India Demand (festive/wedding season) and China retail demand can stabilize spot if discounts narrow and premiums re-emerge, but Kitco notes near-term tightness has eased versus the squeeze earlier in the rally.
📈 Base Case Outlook (Next 4–8 Weeks)
Trend: We’re in a bull-market correction — momentum currently with sellers — inside a bigger, intact secular uptrend. WSJ + Kitco both frame it as a technical consolidation after a near-vertical ascent.
Range Expectation: $3,500–$4,100 with whipsaws around $4k. The market likely tests $3,750 and could overshoot to $3,500 on negative macro surprises or persistent outflows before attempting a higher-low base.
Bull Re-acceleration Triggers:
(a) USD/real-yield rollover post-Refunding/Fed minutes
(b) A visible reversal in ETF flows
(c) Stabilization in Asia physical premiums
(d) Fresh geopolitical shocks
Bear Extension Risks:
(a) Firmer real yields / stronger USD
(b) Deeper ETF outflows and CTA/systematic supply
(c) Evidence of slower central-bank demand than H1
(d) Soft physical uptake into dips
⚔️ Trade / Hedge Tactics
If Underweight/Flat:
Stagger bids $3,760 → $3,520, scale size smaller into weakness; insist on confirmation (stops above prior day’s high) before adding.
If Long From Higher:
Respect $3,750 — below it, tighten or partially hedge (short miners, long USD vs. FX beta, or buy short-dated puts) targeting $3,500 as a potential flush.
If Momentum Trader:
Let $4,000 decide regime. Sustained reclaims with rising on-balance volume/ETF creations = green light for a bounce to $4,080–$4,150; failure = fade rallies into $3,950–$3,980.
🧭 What I’m Watching Day-to-Day
1️⃣ Treasury refunding headlines (Nov 5) and term-premium reaction.
2️⃣ Fed minutes (Nov 19) and any shift in balance-of-risks language.
3️⃣ GLD/IAU flow tape (creations/redemptions).
4️⃣ Kitco/WSJ desk color on physical tightness and dealer inventories.
Gold next week Key S/R Levels and Outlook for Traders🔥 GOLD WEEKLY SNAPSHOT — BY PROJECTSYNDICATE
🏆 High/Close: $4,380 → ~$4,112 — lower close within range; momentum cooled but holding the $4,000 handle.
📈 Trend: Uptrend intact > $4,000; oversold into $4.1k—setup favors reflex bounce.
🛡 Supports: $4,120–$4,080 → $4,020–$3,988 (bullish liquidity) → $4,000/3,980 must hold.
🚧 Resistances: $4,200 / $4,250 (bearish liquidity) / $4,300 → stretch $4,350–$4,380.
🧭 Bias next week: Buy-the-dip $4,020–$3,988; momentum regain above $4,200 targets $4,250 → $4,300–$4,350. Invalidation < $3,980 risks a deeper flush to $3,950.
🌍 Macro tailwinds:
• Policy: Easing real yields supportive on dips.
• FX: Softer USD tone = constructive backdrop.
• Flows: Central-bank buying + tactical ETF interest underpin $4k.
• Geopolitics: Trade/tariff & regional tensions keep safety bids alive.
🎯 Street view: Select houses still float $5,000/oz by 2026 on policy easing & reserve-diversification narratives.
________________________________________
🔝 Key Resistance Zones
• $4,200–$4,230 immediate supply from the weekly close
• $4,250 bearish liquidity / primary target
• $4,300–$4,350 extension band
• $4,380 prior spike high / stretch
🛡 Support Zones
• $4,120–$4,080 first retest band below close
• $4,020–$3,988 buy zone (bullish liquidity)
• $4,000 / $3,980 must-hold shelf
________________________________________
⚖️ Base Case Scenario
Expect pullbacks into $4,120–$4,080 and $4,020–$3,988 to attract buyers, rotating price back toward $4,200 then $4,250. Acceptance above $4,250 invites a drive into $4,300–$4,350.
🚀 Breakout Trigger
A sustained push/acceptance > ~$4,250 unlocks $4,300 → $4,350, with room toward $4,380 if momentum persists.
💡 Market Drivers
• Real-yield drift lower (supportive carry backdrop)
• USD softness aiding metals
• Ongoing CB accumulation; ETF flows stabilizing on dips
• Headline risk (trade/geopolitics) sustaining safe-haven demand
🔓 Bull / Bear Trigger Lines
• Bullish above: $4,020–$4,100 (buyers defend pullbacks)
• Bearish below: $3,980 (risk expands; threatens $3,950)
🧭 Strategy
Buy low from bullish liquidity (~$3,988) with a target at $4,250; oversold conditions favor a strong bounce. Add on strength above $4,200 toward $4,300–$4,350. Keep risk tight below $3,980–$4,000 to invalidate.
DeGRAM | GOLD is declining in the channel📊 Technical Analysis
● XAU/USD remains confined within a descending channel, forming consistent lower highs and lows, reinforcing bearish control.
● Price recently rejected the 4,140 resistance and is targeting the 3,950 support zone, confirming short-term continuation within the channel structure.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Gold faces pressure from a stronger USD and rising Treasury yields, as traders scale back expectations of early Fed rate cuts.
✨ Summary
● Short bias below 4,140; targets 4,000–3,950. Technical rejection and macro strength in USD sustain bearish momentum.
-------------------
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Gold Preparing to Continue Its Bullish Move After ConsolidationHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. Gold has maintained a strong bullish structure over the recent period, forming a clear ascending channel that has been respected multiple times. Each correction has been followed by strong bullish impulses, confirming that buyers remain in control of the long-term direction. After reaching the 4,368 Resistance Level — which coincides with the upper boundary of the channel — the market entered a range phase, signaling consolidation after an extended rally. The current price action has formed a secondary support zone near 4,050 – 4,080, also aligned with the ascending support line of the broader channel. Currently, the price is moving inside a range structure (Buyer Zone to Seller Zone), consolidating just above the main ascending support line. In my opinion, this area represents a critical accumulation zone, where buyers are likely preparing for another upward push. I expect that after testing the Buyer Zone, the price will find strong support and initiate a new bullish wave toward the Seller Zone and the Resistance Level at 4,368. A confirmed breakout above the resistance line of the local descending structure would validate this bullish continuation scenario. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Gold Price Analysis (XAU/USD) – October 28, 2025Gold continues its bearish momentum, forming a clear lower-high structure after multiple failed attempts to break the resistance area around $4,075–4,085. The market has been respecting a descending trendline, signaling sustained selling pressure from institutional traders.
At the moment, price is retesting the $3,930–3,935 zone — a key short-term support level that coincides with previous liquidity grabs. A decisive break below $3,922 could open the door toward the next demand zone near $3,830–3,805, where buyers may attempt a technical rebound.
Technical Highlights:
Trend: Bearish bias remains intact below $3,970.
Resistance levels: $3,970 / $4,025 / $4,085
Support levels: $3,922 / $3,880 / $3,830
Indicators: Price remains below EMA20 and EMA50 on H1, while RSI hovers near oversold — suggesting a potential short-term pullback before further decline.
Trading Strategy:
Traders could look for short opportunities on minor pullbacks toward the $3,950–3,960 area, maintaining a stop above $3,970 and targeting the $3,830–3,805 zone.
Conservative traders may wait for a confirmed close below $3,922 before joining the bearish leg.
Overall, the structure still favors the downside unless price breaks and sustains above $3,970.
- Stay alert to macro catalysts — especially upcoming U.S. data releases that could influence the dollar and bond yields.
Gold Elliott Wave Analysis – Potential Wave (4) Completion ZoneGold (XAU/USD) on the daily chart appears to be completing a classic Elliott Wave 5-wave impulse structure. After a strong rally into the wave (3) high, price is currently retracing toward the projected wave (4) correction zone.
The highlighted support area aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels:
0.5 retracement: around $3,845
0.618 retracement: around $3,718
This region also coincides with the lower boundary of the ascending channel, adding confluence for potential bullish reversal.
If wave (4) finds support within this zone and maintains structure, a new impulsive rally toward wave (5) could begin — targeting the upper trendline resistance near $4,500–$4,600.






















