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THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we wanted to stick to a similar plan from the week prior, looking for price to attempt either the high to short it again, or, for price to attempt to break the lower box and then give us the opportunity to long again. We had to switch to intra-day trading during the week due to the ranging and as usual, the indicators worked well giving us some good trades and we near enough got what we wanted from the KOG report analysis and the red box targets published. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? Potential for this range to continue during the first half of the week with the immediate resistance above at 4006-10 which will need to break in order to target the 4030 level which is what we’re looking for. For this to happen, support 3990 needs to hold us up and if we can push upside it’s that 4030 level we want to keep an eye on. Rejection there can again lead to another swoop of the lower regions but, we need to keep in mind that red box below. That is the key level of defence for the early part of the week and will need to break! The indicators are suggesting lower at the moment but we need more confirmation and we also need to see if they fill the void left over above from Friday. In our opinion, another choppy week ahead, more ranging and whipsawing while we accumulate and await that clear confirmation of direction. Until then, it’s level to level and intra-day Red box trading for us. RED BOXES: BREAK above 4004 for 4010, 4014 and 4030 in extension of the move BREAK below 3990 for 3985, 3979, 3970 and 3965 in extension of the move Many of you have asked what the “Bubbles/circles” are on the chart! These are the hot spots we have been sharing with you that work well as RIPs! We share the monthly results and daily hot spots and I’m sure our traders will agree, they are powerful! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
21
XAUUSD – Weekly Trade Plan(Nov 10 → Nov 14, 2025) Bias: Neutral–Bullish, focusing on reaction zones between key supply and demand levels. 🌐 MARKET CONTEXT Overview: After a strong rally earlier in Q4, Gold is now consolidating around the $4,000 zone, reflecting the tug-of-war between Fed rate-cut expectations and upcoming U.S. inflation data (CPI & PPI). Sentiment: Current sentiment leans slightly risk-off, as U.S. yields remain elevated, but safe-haven demand for Gold persists. Expectations: The market is likely to remain range-bound / corrective until a clear macro catalyst appears. Main Bias: Prioritize selling from supply zones and buying from demand zones, but always wait for structural confirmation (CHoCH / BOS) before entering. 📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (SMC + Liquidity Structure) Structure: The market is moving in a sideways H4 range between 3,930 and 4,130. Liquidity focus: Above 4,130: Cluster of buy-side liquidity — potential for stop-hunt sweeps. Below 3,930: Sell-side liquidity, untested low area. Pattern outlook: The 4,046–4,052 area has been tested twice, forming a potential mini-distribution zone. The 3,928–3,930 demand zone remains untested — a possible liquidity sweep before rebound. SMC Logic: A fake BOS / sweep above 4,130 could trigger a strong short setup. A sweep below 3,930 + CHoCH bullish could confirm a long setup. 🔑 KEY PRICE ZONES Price Zone Type Description 4,130–4,128 🔻 SELL Zone #1 Major D1 supply zone & liquidity cluster above the range 4,046–4,044 🔻 SELL Zone #2 OB + POC + liquidity trap near previous highs 3,930–3,928 🟩 BUY Zone #1 H4 demand zone + SSL sweep potential 3,922 ⚠️ Stop Threshold Below this, short-term bullish bias invalidated 4,052 / 4,136 🧱 Stoploss Levels Corresponding stops for each sell setup ⚙️ TRADE SETUPS ✅ SELL SCENARIO 1 – HIGH SUPPLY (SWEEP ABOVE RANGE) Entry: 4,130 – 4,128 Stoploss: 4,136 TP1: 4,046 TP2: 3,995 TP3: 3,930 Logic: Liquidity sweep above the range high, targeting distribution reaction from major supply. ✅ SELL SCENARIO 2 – RANGE SUPPLY REJECTION Entry: 4,046 – 4,044 Stoploss: 4,052 TP1: 4,000 TP2: 3,930 TP3: 3,928 Logic: OB + VAL + liquidity confluence at top of range; wait for M5 CHoCH confirmation before entering. ✅ BUY SCENARIO – MAIN STRUCTURAL SUPPORT SWEEP Entry: 3,930 – 3,928 Stoploss: 3,922 TP1: 3,995 TP2: 4,044 TP3: 4,128 (trail) Logic: Sweep of SSL below previous low → bullish CHoCH confirmation → ideal Smart Money demand entry. 🧠 NOTES / SESSION PLAN Focus on London session for potential buy setups near 3,930–3,928. Watch New York session for sell setups at 4,046–4,128, especially if price sweeps liquidity first. Avoid entering during major CPI / PPI news releases. Use M5–M15 confirmations (CHoCH, FVG fill) before execution. Avoid overtrading — wait for clear structural confirmation to reduce stop-hunt risk. 🏁 CONCLUSION Gold continues to range between 3,930 ↔ 4,130, showing no clear breakout yet. Primary setups: Sell from 4,046–4,128, with stops at 4,052 / 4,136. Buy from 3,930–3,928, with stop at 3,922. Strategy: Trade both ends of the range with structure confirmation; avoid trading inside equilibrium. For this week, focus on buy-the-dip below 3,930 and sell-the-rally between 4,046–4,130.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Alicee_Trader
2
Ending US G. shutdown could bring GOLD to daily support?US government shutdown has slowed longer term trend on XAUUSD with 2 weeks of bearish move finally formed an weekly inside bar which is the lowest volatity in the last 12 weeks! however, as there is bearish rejection, with potential ending of shut down could lead GOLD to drop again to the daily support to 3885.00 or lower? as 3 weeks price action is showing a continued bearish move, any break from the weekly high, price may bring the price back below the weekly low which potentailly create a lowertimeframe bearish trend. Therefore, weekly high is to watch for possible rejection, once price rejects, once down trend coinfirms, we will be looking for sell set up to daily support level.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ForexWizard01
1980 Redux? SILVER set to Outshine the NYSE Composite.Has Silver set the stage to approach its all time high's versus the "Big Index" that was last seen close to 50 years ago.? Why this chart is spectacular: Silver has moved sharply higher this year, breaching it's historic $50 threshold, a feat last seen in 1980 and 2011. Notable the Silver/US Equities ratio (using the TVC:NYA as a broad proxy) is forming a multi year bottom structure. Suggesting we are in the process of a powerful repricing from equities to commodities. This is not a crash call on Stocks. Simply put Metals and commodities are just likely be faster horses and receive higher capital allocations. We've seen the Big short during the GFC. We've seen Saylor's Big long trade on #BTC is Silver the Big Reversal?
TVC:SILVER
by BallaJi
GOLD (XAUUSD): Support & Resistance Analysis for Next Week Here is my structure analysis for Gold for next week. Support 1: 3868 - 3927 area Support 2: 3766 - 3830 area Support 3: 3690 - 3736 area Resistance 1: 4023 - 4109 area Resistance 2: 4187 - 4245 area Resistance 3: 4357 - 4383 area As we discussed earlier, the price is stuck within a range now and we see a consolidation. With the absence of high impact fundamentals, a sideways price action will likely continue. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by VasilyTrader
11
XAUUSD: Buyers Target $4,080 Resistance ZoneHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup. Market Analysis Gold (XAUUSD) has recently formed a constructive bullish structure after rebounding from the 3,930–3,960 Buyer Zone, which aligns with the lower boundary of the Upward Channel. This demand zone has consistently acted as a strong accumulation area, indicating that buyers are actively defending it. Prior to this rebound, price moved within a Downward Channel, where several fake breakouts occurred — showing that sellers were gradually losing momentum and failing to maintain downside pressure. Currently, a breakout from the Downward Channel shifted the market tone, and since then, XAUUSD has started forming higher lows, signaling an early trend reversal. The price is now trading back inside a new Upward Channel, and the structure suggests buyers are preparing for a continuation move. At the moment, XAUUSD is approaching the mid-range of the channel, while the next major resistance sits near 4,130, which previously acted as a supply level and point of distribution. My Scenario & Strategy The current setup suggests that as long as price remains above the 3,930–3,960 demand region, the bullish setup remains intact. I expect Gold to continue moving gradually toward the 4,080–4,130 resistance zone in the short term. A confirmed breakout above 4,130 would likely signal strong bullish continuation, opening the way for a larger upward move toward 4,200 and beyond. However, if XAUUSD breaks back below 3,930, the bullish structure would be invalidated, and price could revisit deeper support levels before attempting another upward leg. For now, I prefer to look for long entries on pullbacks within the channel, targeting a continuation toward the resistance levels mentioned above. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ratner
10
A Hunter Waits Patiently, Then Strikes Like a Lion - US100 - 1HMy dear friends, greetings, My friends, I have set the buy levels for US100 at 24,872 and 24,677. I will never enter a trade or put myself at unnecessary risk before these levels are reached. My friends, in order to consistently win in this market and to become a successful trader, patience is essential. If you act with patience and strategy, you will always be a winning trader, just like me. I would also like you to know that my target is set at the 26,168 level. My friends, every single like from you is my greatest motivation to share these analyses. I sincerely thank everyone who supports me with their appreciation. With my respect and love.
FX:NAS100
by TraderTilki
37
Gold Analysis H4 - Bullish orderflowAfter gold broke below the 3944.48 level, the market initially showed signs of further downside movement, potentially aiming to sweep more liquidity resting beneath that zone. However, the nature of the breakout suggests that it could itself be a liquidity grab rather than the start of a genuine bearish continuation. The candle that broke this level was quickly rejected, indicating that selling pressure may have been absorbed by strong buy orders. This kind of price reaction often signals the presence of institutional accumulation or smart money activity. As a result, the order flow now appears to be shifting, potentially preparing for a bullish move. If momentum continues to build, price may aim to sweep the liquidity resting above the trendline before deciding on the next directional move.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Mr_Liquidity1
Gold Analysis Daily Time Frame Hello Traders Gold is within its daily range (4024 - 3929) and for Monday it will be important whether it can close above or below the marked candle. I expect a similar move for gold this week, the condition for this move is that the daily candle does not close above 4019, if the Monday candle moves towards 4035 and immediately stabilizes below 4019, this path can be expected to continue until liquidity levels are low. The three levels of 4062, 4075 and 4090 are still important resistance points, and the market has not yet pulled back to these levels, so the price may be slightly higher than these areas to continue the path. Good luck
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by kinshinreza
Gold next week: Key S/R Levels and Outlook for Traders🔥 GOLD WEEKLY SNAPSHOT — BY PROJECTSYNDICATE 🏆 High/Close: $4,024.9 → ~$4,003 — sellers faded upticks; weekly close soft but back above the round $4k. 📈 Trend: Neutral / mild correction inside range; not expecting immediate new highs while <$4,080–4,120. 🛡 Supports: $3,950 → $3,900 → $3,850 — pivotal shelves for bears’ take-profit and control. 🚧 Resistances: $4,040 / $4,080 / $4,120 — repeated supply zones; first taps favored for fades. 🧭 Bias next week: Short sells into $4,040–$4,120; TP $3,950 then $3,850 (your plan). Invalidation on sustained reclaim > $4,120–$4,175; loss of $3,850 risks extension lower. 🌍 Macro tailwinds/headwinds (this week’s tape): • Narrative tone: Kitco flagged “razor’s edge” near $4,000 with mixed views (bubble vs. consolidation), while another Kitco piece framed the stall as a “healthy pause.” • WSJ flow: Headlines oscillated between “slips below $4,000” and modest up-days; net read is consolidation around $4k with quick two-way trade. • Levels: Spot finished the week essentially on $4k; intrawEEK high couldn’t clear early-week $4.02–4.03k cap. 🎯 Street view: After last month’s print above $4,000 (first ever), WSJ tone shifted to digestion; rallies still attract supply until a decisive reclaim of upper resistance. ________________________________________ 🔝 Key Resistance Zones • $4,040 — immediate ceiling; weekly high proximity, likely to cap first tests. • $4,080 — secondary supply ledge from recent failures. • $4,120 — upper band; acceptance above here starts to neutralize the correction. 🛡 Support Zones • $3,950 — first defense / first TP. • $3,900 — round-number shelf; loss invites momentum probes. • $3,850 — critical structural base and second TP; break risks downside acceleration. ________________________________________ ⚖️ Base Case Scenario Compression within a rising-wedge-like structure, ranging $3,850–$4,120. First pushes into $4,040–$4,120 are sellable for rotations toward $3,950 → $3,850 while the market respects weekly lower highs. 🚀 Breakout / Breakdown Triggers • Bull trigger: Sustained acceptance > ~$4,120–$4,175 turns the tone constructive again and reopens $4,200+. • Bear trigger: Daily close < $3,900 increases odds of full $3,850 test; failure of $3,850 risks momentum spill. 💡 Market Drivers to watch • Fed path / real yields (rate-cut odds vs. sticky inflation narrative in WSJ copy). • USD swings (no broad USD weakness → upside attempts stall). • ETF/CB flows (Kitco interviews highlight split sentiment; dip-buyers active, momentum players cautious). • Event risk (headline sensitivity remains high; quick squeezes into resistance possible). 🔓 Bull / Bear Trigger Lines • Bullish above: $4,120–$4,175 (sustained). • Bearish below: $3,900 → $3,850 (risk expands under $3,850). 🧭 Strategy for this week Short from resistance: Scale in around $4,040 → $4,080 → $4,120; TP #1: $3,950; TP #2: $3,850; Risk: Hard stop on a daily close above $4,120 (or intraday breach that holds on retest). Consider trimming if a news-driven squeeze tags $4,175 and fails.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
60
Market Psychology: Gold vs Bitcoin - Where We Really Are🧠 The Psychology Test That Changes Everything Here's a simple test that will tell you everything about where TVC:GOLD and IG:BITCOIN is in its cycle: Look at these two charts. Which one screams "bull market euphoria"? ──────────────────────────────────── Chart One 🥇 TVC:GOLD : A Textbook Bull Market Current Price: $4,000.92 Peak Price: $4,390 (Recently hit) RSI: 69.15 Phase: EUPHORIA → COMPLACENCY (Post-peak pullback) What the Psychology Chart Shows: Looking at FOREXCOM:XAUUSD price action overlaid with the Wall Street Cheat Sheet: ✅ Clean parabolic structure - No ambiguity ✅ Multiple phases completed - Hope → Optimism → Belief → Thrill → Euphoria ✅ Peak already hit at $4,390 - The pink Euphoria circle was touched ✅ Now pulling back from peak - Classic post-euphoria behavior ✅ RSI cooling from overbought - Down from 85+ to 69.15 ✅ Volume still elevated as reality sets in This is what a COMPLETED bull market looks like. When you see this chart, you don't second-guess. You don't wonder "is this a bull market?" You KNOW it is. ──────────────────────────────────── Chart Two ₿ IG:BITCOIN : Still in Early Stages Current Price: $101,802.2 RSI: 44.61 Phase: OPTIMISM (not even Belief yet) What the Psychology Chart Shows: Looking at INDEX:BTCUSD price action overlaid with the Wall Street Cheat Sheet: ⚠️ "We are here" marker - Sitting in the OPTIMISM phase ⚠️ Haven't reached Belief yet - The green zone is still ahead ⚠️ Thrill phase - Blue circle far above current price ⚠️ Euphoria phase - Pink circle even further away ⚠️ RSI at 44.61 - Not even close to overbought ⚠️ Fourth Halving marker - April 22, 2024 clearly noted This is what mid-cycle consolidation looks like. ──────────────────────────────────── 🔍 The Critical Difference Let me use an analogy: Think of market cycles like a marathon. FOREXCOM:GOLD (Chart 1): Mile 26 - Just crossed finish line - Race is over, starting to cool down Runners are slowing down after sprint (Post-euphoria) Crowd peaked, now dispersing (Volume still high but declining) Everyone saw the finish (Peak at $4,390) Now wondering if they should have sprinted harder CRYPTOCAP:BTC (Chart 2): Mile 8 of 26 - Still early in the race Runners are fresh and steady (Optimism) Crowd is watching but not cheering wildly yet Most people aren't even at the venue yet Many spectators think the race might be cancelled ──────────────────────────────────── 📊 Side-by-Side Psychology Comparison ──────────────────────────────────── 🎯 What This Tells Us About IG:BITCOIN If COINBASE:BTCUSD were truly at a cycle top, it would look like CAPITALCOM:GOLD : ❌ Parabolic vertical moves ❌ RSI pinned above 75 for weeks ❌ Volume exploding ❌ Everyone saying "Bitcoin to $500K" ❌ Taxi drivers asking about crypto ❌ Magazine covers everywhere ❌ No doubt whatsoever about the trend But OANDA:BTCUSD looks nothing like that: ✅ Choppy consolidation ✅ RSI in neutral zone (44.61) ✅ Volume moderate ✅ Everyone asking "Is the bull market over?" ✅ Retail despair and fear ✅ Zero mainstream coverage ✅ Maximum doubt about the trend ──────────────────────────────────── 💡 The Psychology Principle Here's the key insight from behavioral finance: **"If you have to ask whether you're in a bubble, you're not in a bubble."** TVC:GOLD : No one is asking if TVC:GOLD is in a bull market. It's obvious. IG:BITCOIN : Everyone is asking if IG:BITCOIN is in a bull market. That's your answer. ──────────────────────────────────── 🧩 Where Each Asset Really Is TVC:GOLD - Post-Peak Bear Market Transition: Completed Phases: ✅ Hope (Oct '23 - May '24) ✅ Optimism (May '24 - Dec '24) ✅ Belief (Dec '24 - May '25) ✅ Thrill (May '25 - Sep '25) ✅ EUPHORIA - PEAKED at $4,390 (Oct '2025) Current Phase: 🔶 COMPLACENCY - "It'll come back to $4,390" Price: $4,000.92 (down ~9% from peak) Classic post-euphoria denial behavior What's Next: Anxiety → Denial → Panic → Capitulation (2026+) Time Remaining: Bull market is OVER - bear phase beginning ──────────────────────────────────── KRAKEN:BTCUSD - Early-Mid Bull Market: Completed Phases: ✅ Hope (2023 - Post-FTX recovery) 🟡 OPTIMISM (Current - 2024-2025) Phases Still Ahead: ⬜ Belief ⬜ Thrill ⬜ Euphoria What's Next: Break into Belief phase → Thrill → Euphoria Time Remaining: Given CRYPTOCAP:BTC high volatile nature - 2-6 months of upside potential ──────────────────────────────────── 🎨 The Visual Test (Do This Right Now) Step 1: Look at the TVC:GOLD chart Does it look like a bull market? YES Could you be wrong? NO Is there any doubt? ZERO Step 2: Look at the IG:BITCOIN chart Does it look like a bull market? MAYBE? Could you be wrong? POSSIBLY Is there any doubt? TONS Step 3: Ask yourself **"Would a cycle TOP have this much doubt and fear?"** The answer is NO. ──────────────────────────────────── 📈 What the RSI Divergence Tells Us TVC:GOLD RSI Pattern: Peaked above 85 during euphoria Currently cooling at 69.15 Rolling over from overbought Classic post-peak behavior This is bear market transition IG:BITCOIN RSI Pattern: Sitting at 44.61 Plenty of room to run Not even approaching overbought Recent "Bear" signals flushing out This is early-cycle behavior Think of it like a gas tank: TVC:GOLD : Hit redline at $4,390, now coasting down on fumes IG:BITCOIN : 45% full, tons of room to run ──────────────────────────────────── 🔥 The Contrarian Insight What the majority thinks: " TVC:GOLD is in a bubble, IG:BITCOIN topped" What the charts actually show: TVC:GOLD is in a mature bull market (near end) IG:BITCOIN is in early-mid bull market (tons of runway) The irony: Everyone trusts TVC:GOLD rally (late stage) Everyone doubts IG:BITCOIN rally (early stage) This is exactly backwards. ──────────────────────────────────── 🎭 The Emotional State Comparison TVC:GOLD Holders Right Now: 😰 Starting to feel anxious (down from $4,390) 🤔 "It'll bounce back, right?" 📉 Checking price hoping for recovery 🙃 "I should have sold at $4,390" 😬 "This is just a healthy correction" This is COMPLACENCY - the denial phase after euphoria. IG:BITCOIN Holders Right Now: 😰 Anxious and doubtful 🤐 Not talking about their positions 😔 Wondering if they should sell 📉 Feeling defeated 💀 "Maybe the cycle is over" Which emotional state typically marks: Post-cycle tops? → TVC:GOLD current state (Complacency/Denial after Euphoria peak) Cycle middles? → IG:BITCOIN current state (Doubt during Optimism) ──────────────────────────────────── 💎 The Bottom Line Using the Wall Street Cheat Sheet as our guide: TVC:GOLD : Phase: Thrill → Euphoria Completion: ~95% through cycle Risk/Reward: High risk, limited reward Action: Take profits soon IG:BITCOIN : Phase: Optimism (just finished Hope) Completion: ~30% through cycle Risk/Reward: Moderate risk, massive reward Action: Accumulate aggressively ──────────────────────────────────── 🧠 The Psychology Lesson The market is designed to make you feel wrong at exactly the wrong time: When TVC:GOLD peaked at $4,390 (Euphoria) → You felt confident, " TVC:GOLD to $5K!" Now TVC:GOLD is pulling back (Complacency) → You feel like "it's just a correction" When IG:BITCOIN is cheap and poised (Optimism) → You feel scared to buy This is why most people: Miss selling tops (felt too good at $4,390) Hold through corrections (denial and complacency) Sell bottoms during fear (Optimism feels scary) To win, you must: Trust the structure over the sentiment Buy when it feels uncomfortable (Optimism/Belief) Sell when it feels amazing (Euphoria/Peak) ──────────────────────────────────── 📍 Where We Actually Are HOPE → OPTIMISM( IG:BITCOIN ) → BELIEF → THRILL → EUPHORIA ( TVC:GOLD $4390 Peak) → COMPLACENCY → ( TVC:GOLD Current) IG:BITCOIN is 3-4 phases behind TVC:GOLD . TVC:GOLD already peaked. IG:BITCOIN hasn't even started its parabolic phase yet. ──────────────────────────────────── 🎯 What This Means for Your Portfolio If you're holding TVC:GOLD at $4,000: You missed the peak at $4,390 You're in post-euphoria complacency "It'll bounce back" is denial Risk/reward is terrible now Exit strategy needed YESTERDAY If you're doubting IG:BITCOIN at $102K: You're sitting in Optimism You're early to the party Peak is 3-4 phases away Risk/reward is excellent Accumulation strategy needed NOW ──────────────────────────────────── 🔚 Final Thought The next time someone tells you " IG:BITCOIN topped," show them these two charts side by side. Ask them: "Which one actually topped?" The answer is clear: TVC:GOLD peaked at $4,390 and is now in complacency denial. IG:BITCOIN is still in optimism. TVC:GOLD finished its race. IG:BITCOIN is just finishing Act 1. The Golden Bull Run isn't over—it's barely begun. ──────────────────────────────────── This is educational content comparing market psychology across asset classes. Not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately. ────────────────────────────────────
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSD
by niclaxfx
Gold’s Tight Range = Big Opportunity! Watch These Key Levels.COMEX:GC1! COMEX:GC1! (Gold Futures) | Market Analysis & 2025 Outlook After hundreds of requests since my last ideas, I’ve decided to share another detailed breakdown — this time for Gold Futures COMEX:GC1! . Let’s dive in. COMEX: COMEX:GC1! Breakdown Fundamental Analysis → NEUTRAL to BULLISH Gold remains range-bound as markets await clearer direction from global inflation data and U.S. rate expectations. Safe-haven demand continues to support the metal, but a strong dollar has kept price capped. Technical Analysis → RANGING (Neutral Bias) Currently consolidating within a 4H range since October 25th, with price bouncing between resistance near 4045 and support around 3940. A close below 3940 opens the door for lows near 3823. A close above 4045 could trigger a move toward the fair value gap around 4235. If price sustains above 4235, the next major target would be a breakout beyond the all-time high at 4398. This sideways structure suggests accumulation before a decisive move — traders should stay patient for a confirmed breakout before committing heavy capital. Sentimental Analysis → Market in Waiting Mode Gold traders are showing hesitation — institutions and retail alike are waiting for key macro catalysts. The current equilibrium reflects indecision rather than reversal. My Suggestion: While the bias remains neutral, a smart strategy is to wait for confirmation from the range extremes. Trade Plan: BUY Setup: If we see a strong 4H or daily close above 4045, aim for 4235, then 4398. SELL Setup: If price closes below 3940, look for continuation to 3823 before considering long re-entries. Use proper risk management — risk small until direction confirms. Conclusion Gold’s current range offers both opportunity and caution. Be patient and let the breakout guide your next move. Remember — the market rewards discipline more than prediction. If you enjoyed this breakdown, drop a LIKE, COMMENT, and FOLLOW for more updates and technical setups. See you soon on the next trade idea! ✨📊
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by FxEarnings
Copper(XCU/USD) Ready to Explode | Wave 3 to $10, Wave 5 to $100🧠 COPPER — The Sleeping Giant Ready for a Supercycle 🌍⚡ Copper, the “metal of electrification,” is setting up for one of the biggest macro-bull markets we’ve ever seen. From EVs to renewable grids to AI data-center power demand, copper is literally the blood of the new industrial era . Let’s break it down step-by-step 👇 🔮 Wave Theory Confluence (Elliott + Fibonacci Extensions) Zooming out to the monthly timeframe , we can clearly see Copper finishing its Wave 3 within a long-term 5-wave impulsive supercycle. ✅ Wave 1 (2001-2008) fueled by China’s infrastructure boom. ✅ Wave 2 (2008-2016) a deep corrective phase, classic ABC zigzag. ⚡ Wave 3 (2016-2026) now unfolding with a 2.618 Fibonacci extension , targeting around $10–11 levels per pound by the late 2020s. 📉 After that, expect a macro Wave 4 correction —likely a complex ABCDE structure —before the final parabolic Wave 5 projection toward $100+ in the 2040s according to long-term fib confluence (4.618x extension). This aligns perfectly with historical commodity supercycles—massive runs followed by decades of consolidation before exponential growth again. 🧩 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) – Liquidity & Institutional Order Flow Smart Money has been quietly accumulating since 2016 👀 Liquidity grab below the 2020 lows cleaned out retail longs, allowing institutions to build heavy long positions. The current structure shows higher highs (HHs) and higher lows (HLs) — the signature of a bullish market structure shift. Premium/Discount zones show Copper still trading in the discount range of the macro leg (below the 50% equilibrium), suggesting Smart Money accumulation continues. Expect Wyckoff-style reaccumulation as price coils between $4–$6 before the breakout into the next expansion leg 🚀 🧭 Price Action & Market Structure Monthly BOS (Break of Structure) confirmed above $5, flipping long-term market structure bullish. Demand zones at $4.0–$4.5 act as strong re-entry levels. Liquidity pools above the $6 level (previous highs) likely to be taken out as price seeks expansion to the Wave 3 target zone. Look for a final shakeout into Wave 4 later in the decade before the next true parabolic move. This PA structure mirrors textbook “smart accumulation > markup > distribution > reaccumulation” phases seen in previous copper supercycles. 💹 Fundamentals: The Perfect Storm ⚙️ Electrification Boom – Copper is the backbone of EVs, renewable grids, AI data centers, and defense manufacturing. 🔋 Supply Constraints – Global mine production growth slowing while demand from green tech surges. 🌎 Geopolitical Tensions – Supply concentration in Chile, Peru, and DRC adds a geopolitical risk premium. 💰 Inflation Hedge – Commodities entering a reflation cycle as central banks pivot back to stimulus. All fundamentals point to structural deficits by 2026-2030, aligning perfectly with Wave 3’s macro push. 🧮 Fibonacci Confluence & Cycle Timing Wave 3 projection: 2.618 × Wave 1 = ~$10.7 Wave 4 retracement: likely 0.382 fib (~$6–$7 zone) Wave 5 extension: 4.618 × Wave 1 = $100+ The time cycle between major waves (≈10–12 years) also aligns with commodity supercycles, putting Wave 5’s blow-off top around 2045-2050. 🔔 Conclusion: The Long Game Copper isn’t just a trade — it’s a multi-decade macro opportunity . While short-term volatility (Wave 4) will shake weak hands, the structural setup screams “supercycle incoming.” 🟢 Bias: Long-term bullish 🕰 Accumulation Zone: $4–$5 🎯 Targets: Mid-term (2026-2028): $10–11 Long-term (2040s): $100+ ⚡ “Commodities move slow… until they don’t.” The smart money has already positioned. The rest will chase the breakout. Don’t be the last one in. #Copper #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcepts #Commodities #MacroCycle #PriceAction #Fibonacci #TradingView #Investing #Metals
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by fibcos
3
YALLA XAUMO — GOLD (XAUUSD) | Weekly Institutional 📘 EDUCATIONAL ONLY — NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE All times Africa/Cairo (UTC+2). Report time: Sat, 08 Nov 2025 — 10:09 🟡 YALLA XAUMO — GOLD (XAUUSD) | Weekly Institutional — COMPREHENSIVE (Approved Protocol) Spot ref: 4,000.18 • GC1 (front): 4,009.8 • GC2 (next): 4,043.3 → Term spread (XCM): +0.84% → Contango — GC futures curve explainer — • Contango → GC2 > GC1 (normal upward curve; storage/carry is priced in; not bearish by itself). • Backwardation → GC2 < GC1 (near-term demand/supply stress; often bullish spot impulse). • Term spread (%) → (GC2 − GC1) / GC1 × 100 → shows curve slope/steepness. ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 1) SNAPSHOT & MAP (W1 focus, using your attached GC1/GC2 & XAUMO boards) • State: Balanced / Sideways around 4,000 handle (POC ≈ 4,000–4,001). • Boxed range (cash): 3,976–4,027 (VA Low ≈ 3,988–3,990; VA High ≈ 4,010–4,012). • Immediate inflection: 4,010 (accept above → 4,027/4,034), 3,996 (accept below → 3,983/3,976). • Weekly VWAP bias: flat-to-slightly up; value building near 4,000. 2) XGM GATE MAP (where the week tends to open) • Above 4,010 gate → bullish distribution to 4,027 → 4,034/4,043. • Below 3,996 gate → bearish rotation to 3,983 → 3,976 → 3,965. • Inside 3,996–4,010 → fade the extremes back to POC (4,000 ±). 3) GC FUTURES STRUCTURE (Daily) • GC1 ~4,009.8, GC2 ~4,043.3 → mild contango (+0.84%) consistent with carry; no squeeze signal by structure alone. • Basis vs spot ~ +0.24% (spot 4,000.18) → curve not pressuring immediate spot dislocation. 4) FIB-KICKER / VOLUME MATRIX (from your boards) • Pullback magnets: 61.8% ≈ 4,004; 88.6% ≈ 4,010. • Extension magnets: 118% ≈ 4,031–4,034; 138–150% ≈ 4,056–4,075 (stretch if RVOL expands). • Volume note: rotation pockets inside 3,996–4,010; outside requires RVOL > 1.1 to sustain. 5) ICHIMOKU REGIME TABLE (directional read) • 4H: Bullish continuation, “retracement in progress.” • 1H: Mixed / tactical bearish on dips; flips bullish only above 4,012–4,016 acceptance. • 15m/5m: Buy-the-pullback bias into 4,010 when momentum > EMA(9/21). 6) VALUE MAP (POC/VAL/VAH/VWAP) • POC ~ 4,000–4,001 • VAL ~ 3,988–3,990 • VAH ~ 4,010–4,012 • WVWAP ~ flat ≈ 4,001 • Interpretation: Acceptance above VAH unlocks 4,027/4,034; failure at VAH reverts to POC then VAL. 7) XAUMO TREND MAP (confidence %) • Weekly: Sideways-up (58%) • 4H: Gentle up (55%) • 1H: Neutral→up only above 4,012 (48% below / 56% above) • 15m: Up on RVOL>1 / EMA9>EMA21 (60%) 8) KICKER PROJECTIONS (what good looks like) • Bull path: Probe 4,004 → reclaim 4,010 → build above → 4,027 → 4,034/4,043. • Bear path: Lose 3,996 → 3,988 → 3,983/3,976 → stretch 3,965 if RVOL>1.2. 9) SESSION BIAS TABLE (London/NY execution tips) • London Open (LO): Fade early sweep toward 3,996/3,988, target mean (4,000) or VAH (4,010) if momentum confirms. • pre-NY: If VAH holds support, squeeze to 4,027; if VAH rejects, short back to 4,000 → 3,996. • NY Main: Break-and-hold above 4,012 tends to run stops to 4,027/4,034; miss = chop back to 4,000. 10) CROSS-ASSET HEATMAP (from your watchlist snapshot) • VIX ~19 (calm-ish but reactive) • US30 +0.09% • NASDAQ −0.35% • XAU/EUR +0.44% • Read: Mild equity softness + steady VIX = supportive on dips if DXY doesn’t spike. 11) LIQUIDITY MAP (where stops likely sit) • Tops: 4,012–4,016 (acceptance flip), 4,027, 4,034/4,043. • Bottoms: 3,996, 3,988, 3,983, 3,976, 3,965. 12) ECON-AWARE NOTES (weekly posture) • With curve in mild contango and cash boxed at 4,000, news shocks likely decide who wins 3,996 vs 4,010. • Plan: Execute technicals; expand size only when RVOL > 1.1 and ADX (LTF) rises. 13) EXECUTION CHECKLIST HTF bias aligned? (Weekly/4H not fighting your 15m idea) Above/below gate (4,010 / 3,996) decided? RVOL > 1.1 and 9>21 EMA on entry TF? SL1 = structure + ATR(15m)×0.6; SL2 (tailgate) trails behind EMA21/VWAP band Partial at TP1; move SL1 to BE once +0.75R; trail SL2 14) TRADE SCENARIOS (examples; educational only) A) Swing (weekly box breakout) • Long 4,012–4,016 acceptance, SL1 4,004, SL2 trail 21-EMA(15m) • TP1 4,027, TP2 4,034 (runner 4,043) • Probability: 62% if RVOL > 1.1 and 1H flips up • Alt (reversal): Short 3,996 break & hold, SL1 4,004, TP1 3,988, TP2 3,976 (prob 55%) B) Edge-Fade (inside the box) • Short 4,010–4,012 rejection (bear wick / delta stall), SL1 4,016, TP1 4,000, TP2 3,996 • Long 3,988–3,996 absorption, SL1 3,983, TP1 4,000, TP2 4,010 • Probability: 58% while range persists; stand down when RVOL expands >1.2 C) Scalping (5m→15m calibrated) • Long on pullback to 4,001–4,004 with EMA9>21 & RVOL line up, SL1 3,997, TP1 4,008, TP2 4,012 • Short on fail back under 3,999 with EMA9<21, SL1 4,003, TP1 3,994, TP2 3,990 • Use SL2 tailgate once +0.6R; max hold 3–5 bars D) Continuation (momentum burst) • Above 4,027 with footprint expansion → quick run 4,034 then 4,043 • Below 3,983 with RVOL>1.3 → 3,976 then test 3,965 • Manage with SL2 trailing behind micro-swings 15) RISK MANAGEMENT (XAUMO style) • Position tiering: ½ size inside 3,996–4,010; full size only after acceptance outside the box with RVOL>1.1. • SL1 = structure+ATR buffer; SL2 = tailgate trail. If TP1 hit → lock BE, trail for TP2. • No add-ons if ADX(15m) falling and RVOL<1.0. ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ARABIC QUICK SUMMARY (ملخص عربي) • السوق متوازن حوالين 4000. البوابة لفوق 4010–4012، وتحت 3996. • سيناريو الشراء: تثبيت فوق 4012 → 4027 ثم 4034/4043. • سيناريو البيع: كسر 3996 → 3988 ثم 3976. • إدارة المخاطرة: SL1 هيكل + ATR، و SL2 تريل ورا EMA/VWAP. خُد جزء عند TP1 وحرك الباقي BE. FRENCH QUICK SUMMARY (Résumé) • Marché neutre autour de 4000. Portes: 4010–4012 (haussier) / 3996 (baissier). • Achat: acceptance > 4012 → 4027 puis 4034/4043. • Vente: rupture < 3996 → 3988 puis 3976. • Risque: SL1 structure + ATR, SL2 suiveur; prendre TP1 puis basculer BE. 🏆 Winners trade with XAUMO
FX:XAUUSD
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Gold 4H – Key Liquidity Zones Ahead of US PMI & Fed Commentary🥇 XAUUSD – Weekly Smart Money Outlook | by Ryan_TitanTrader 📈 Market Context Gold continues to consolidate within a tight 4H range as traders prepare for a week influenced by U.S. PMI releases, Fed speeches, and shifting rate-cut expectations. Mixed economic signals — including softer labor data but resilient manufacturing prints — have kept gold trapped between supply overhead and stacked demand levels below. Institutional flows remain cautious, with markets waiting for clarity on the Fed’s stance. This uncertainty often fuels liquidity-driven sweeps, making this week especially favorable for SMC-style setups. Short-term volatility is expected as price interacts with major liquidity pools on both ends of the range. 🔎 Technical Analysis (4H / SMC View) • Price is moving within a well-defined range structure, with repeated liquidity grabs on both sides indicating accumulation by larger players. • The latest 4H ChoCH signals continued hesitation from buyers near the mid-range, hinting that the market may engineer another sweep before committing to a directional leg. • A significant Premium Supply Zone at 4154–4152 sits just above recent equal highs — an attractive area for liquidity hunts followed by potential short-term distribution. • Conversely, the Discount Demand Zone at 3907–3909 aligns with previous structural reaction levels and sits below a liquidity shelf, making it an ideal zone for re-accumulation. • Expect engineered stop-hunts around mid-range liquidity (4000–4016) before a stronger move develops. 🟢 Buy Zone: 3907–3909 SL: 3900 TP targets: 3978 → 4003 → 4016 → 4125 Rationale: • Discount zone within the current 4H range • Liquidity resting below the structure lows • Potential accumulation before the next bullish impulse 🔴 Sell Zone: 4154–4152 SL: 4161 TP targets: 4080 → 4016 → 3978 → 3920 Rationale: • Premium supply positioned above equal-high liquidity • Likely area for a sweep before corrective downside • Confluence with previous 4H structure rejection ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • Wait for M15 ChoCH or BOS confirmation inside each zone before entering. • Expect liquidity manipulation around 4000–4016, especially during US session opens. • Avoid entries 10–15 minutes before major Fed or PMI releases to limit spread expansion. • Scale partial profits at each structural target to lock in gains while letting runners play out. ✅ Summary Gold remains in a controlled 4H range with clear institutional footprints above and below the current price. Smart Money is likely to engineer a move into either the 4150 supply or the 3900 demand before choosing its next major direction. Both setups offer high-probability opportunities when combined with intraday confirmations. Stay patient, wait for liquidity sweeps, and respect structure. Premium sells remain valid at 4154–4152, while discounted buys are favored at 3907–3909. 🔔 FOLLOW RYAN_TITANTRADER for daily SMC setups ⚡
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ryan_TitanTrader
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