GOLD gaining strength.GOLD has been climbing back UP since market open. Once it BreaksOut of the RESISTANCE, we could possibly reach new highs this week or coming week.
Metals
NZD/USD (1H timeframe) .. NZD/USD (1H timeframe) — here’s the target analysis:
Current Price: ≈ 0.5647
Breakout Zone: Price has broken above the descending trendline and entered above the Ichimoku cloud — signaling a potential bullish reversal.
From my marked “Target Points” on the chart:
1. First Target (TP1): Around 0.5730
2. Second Target (TP2): Around 0.5780
✅ Summary:
Entry Zone: 0.5640 – 0.5650 (confirmed breakout zone)
TP1: 0.5730
TP2: 0.5780
Stop Loss (SL suggestion): Below 0.5610 (below breakout zone / Kumo support)
This setup aligns with a short-term bullish move after trendline and cloud breakout.
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Higher for Now — Keep an Eye on SupportWe have a volatile week ahead as the U.S. government shutdown situation continues to unfold. The first vote has passed, but there is still uncertainty around final approval and timing.
Gold has pushed higher during the Asian session, breaking above the 4027 resistance and is now trading around 4076, sitting just above the 4074 level. A confirmed break and hold above 4074 would likely open the door for further upside toward 4115, with 4153 as the next major resistance target.
However, if price fails to sustain above 4074, we could see a pullback toward 4027 for a retest. If selling pressure increases from there, price may rotate back into the First Reaction Zone, where buyers previously stepped in.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
4074
4115
4153
Support:
4027
3984
3955
3921
3884
🔎 Fundamental Focus
All eyes remain on the U.S. government shutdown situation, with votes and negotiations around reopening in focus. The longer the shutdown continues, the more it disrupts key economic data releases and increases uncertainty — which can keep gold reactive and sensitive to headlines.
GOLD A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the GOLD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 4078.3
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 4050.7
My Stop Loss - 4094.1
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
XAUUSD Intraday Outlook - 10 Nov 2025XAUUSD Intraday Outlook - 10 Nov 2025
Gold Spot trades at 4,082 (12:00 PM UTC+4) with bullish bias into NY session.
📌 Market Context: Wyckoff phase D re-accumulation; Dow trend up; Gann 45° support at 4,050.
Daily (1D): Inside bullish pennant above Ichimoku cloud; RSI 62; harmonic bat PRZ 4,120 cap.
4H: Rising wedge testing 4,095; EMA50>EMA200; watch for bull trap if RSI diverges near 70.
1H: Cup-handle breakout at 4,086; VWAP reclaimed; Bollinger mid-band = launchpad.
30M: Sym triangle coiling; hidden bull divergence on RSI; volume contracting before move.
15M: Bull flag above 4,072; Tenkan/Kijun bull cross; anchored VWAP holding.
5M: Falling wedge breakout retest 4,078; candlestick hammer confirms demand.
Primary Long Setup: Buy 4,076-4,082 on VWAP hold; SL 4,066; TP1 4,094, TP2 4,108, TP3 4,120.
Momentum Add: Scale above 4,095 if volume >20% avg and RSI>65; trail stop 4,088.
Counter Short: Fade 4,118-4,124 only on bearish engulfing + RSI>75; SL 4,132; TP 4,098.
Breakout Confirmations: 30M close above 4,095 + volume spike + Ichimoku span green.
Key Supports: 4,072 (flag base), 4,060 (4H Kijun), 4,045 (Gann square level).
Key Resistances: 4,095, 4,108, 4,120 harmonic PRZ.
Indicators Dashboard: BB squeeze (30M), RSI rising, VWAP slope up, EMA stack bullish.
Pattern Alerts: Monitor head-and-shoulders failure if 4,060 breaks; possible bear trap.
Volatility: ATR(14) 5M = 6 pts; adjust size; expect expansion around COMEX open.
News Risk: Watch US CPI Nov 12; reduce exposure 30 minutes prior.
Risk Rules: Risk ≤1.25% per idea; lock gains after TP1; move stop to BE +2.
Trade Management: If price stalls 4,094 with declining volume, partial exit.
Sentiment: COT shows commercials short but covering; supports short-term squeeze.
Volume Profile: HVN at 4,080 acts magnet; LVN 4,092 could accelerate breakout.
Ichimoku Checklist: Price>Cloud, Tenkan>Kijun, Chikou above price = bullish alignment.
Gann Time: 90° cycle hits 16:00 UTC; expect impulse wave.
Harmonics: AB=CD targets 4,108; crab extension warns above 4,124.
Psych Levels: 4,100 round number likely liquidity sweep—wait for confirmation.
Educational outlook only; follow your plan and manage risk.
XAUUSD Long: Bullish Rebound Targeting $4,050 LevelHello traders! Gold (XAUUSD) is trading within a constructive bullish structure after rebounding from the $3,930–$3,960 Demand Zone, which aligns with the lower boundary of the Ascending Channel. This zone has acted as a strong accumulation area where buyers stepped in multiple times, confirming active defense and sustained demand. Earlier, price moved through a corrective phase shaped by the Fibonacci Arc, which guided the downside retracement before buyers regained control. Several Pivot Points formed along the channel, marking clear areas where momentum shifted back in favor of buyers. Additionally, a recent fake breakout below the channel support further emphasizes that sellers are failing to break structure, while liquidity sweeps continue to fuel bullish re-entry opportunities.
Currently, XAUUSD is moving steadily toward the channel midline, with the next key objective located at $4,050, which represents short-term resistance and a known reaction level. A confirmed breakout above $4,050 would open the door for a broader continuation toward the $4,130 Supply Zone, a region where a previous distributive phase occurred. As long as Gold holds above the $3,930–$3,960 Demand Zone, the bullish outlook remains intact.
I expect price to gradually continue higher within the ascending channel. At this stage, the market structure continues to favor buyers, and dips remain attractive opportunities to participate in the upward move. Manage your risk!
Gold Eyes 3,980 Support as Bulls Prepare for the Next Leg HigherHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around 3,980 zone Gold is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 3,980 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Gold: Holds $4K amid uncertaintyThe ongoing U.S. Government shutdown added to safe-haven demand for gold during the previous period. During this week the gold prices rose as the U.S. dollar weakened, driven by soft private-sector job data which increased bets that the federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Markets now estimate about a 67% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, which is a bit higher from previous weeks 60% odds.
The price of gold was holding around $4K during the previous week and was traded in a range between $3.929 and $4.025. The RSI dropped to the level of 45 but is reverting back above the level of 50 as of the end of the week. Moving averages of 50 and 200 days are without change, moving as two parallel lines with an uptrend.
Although the first part of a week was in a short corrective mode, still gold managed to end the week by testing once again the $4K resistance. With all uncertainties related to the US Government shutdown and high AI valuations, it seems that the demand for gold still holds on the market. Some higher corrections of the price of gold are certainly not expected during this period of time. As per current charts, there is still an open path for higher grounds. In this sense, charts are pointing toward the $4.065, eventually $4,1K for the week ahead. In case of a short reversal, the level of $3.930 might be shortly tested again.
The bulls are back, and going long remains the main theme.#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Although the beginning of the week didn't offer a pullback entry opportunity, gold rallied immediately after the open, breaking through 4030 as expected and continuing its upward trend, officially signaling the return of the bulls to the market.
From the hourly chart, gold broke through the resistance of the upward channel at 4055 and continued to fluctuate upwards, indicating that the bullish momentum remains strong in the short term. However, attention should be paid to the resistance at 4080-4100 from the weekly MA5 moving average and the daily middle line, and be wary of a possible pullback after a surge. Therefore, in the short term, avoid blindly chasing the rally, patiently waiting for a pullback to buy remains our main trading strategy. The first support level to watch is the 4055-4045 level, a previous resistance turning point, followed by the important support at 4030-4020.
Therefore, if gold prices fall back after encountering resistance during the European session, we can consider going long on gold in batches based on the strength of the pullback.
GOLD → Gold within the trading range...FX:XAUUSD is consolidating amid a pullback in the dollar and in anticipation of stronger key data as a driver for movement. Focus on the current trading range
On Friday, before the close of the session, the market formed a short squeeze, a strange volatility without news. It is important to monitor the Asian and European sessions and price behavior within the current trading range.
Earlier, we saw the dollar rise along with gold, indicating the strength of the metal and interest from the bulls. Let's assume that this situation has not yet run its course. In that case, after Friday's short squeeze, I expect MM to test liquidity in the 3985-3964 zone before a possible attempt to grow. Support from the upward channel may also affect the price. I still consider 4030 to be an important resistance level. If the bulls manage to break this barrier and keep the price above this level, gold will be able to end its correction and move into a growth phase. Otherwise, the market will tend to break out of the current consolidation downwards...
Resistance levels: 4020, 4030 - 4050
Support levels: 3985, 3963, 3931
Technically, while the price is within the trading range, it is worth considering trading relative to its boundaries. The fundamental background during the weekend is difficult to assess, so we will need to watch the situation during the European session...
Best regards, R. Linda!
Hellena | GOLD (1H): SHORT to support area 3925.Colleagues, I believe that at the moment we see a rather complicated situation - the correction is not over yet and we may see a complicated correction. In most probability I see the completion of wave “B”, and the continuation of the downward movement to the support area of 3925.
The “ABC” correction may be completed this week. In any case, I expect the decline to continue.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
XAUUSD Holds Buyer Zone — Potential Recovery Toward $4,030Hello traders, I’d like to share my view on Gold (XAUUSD). The market has been holding a constructive bullish structure, developing higher lows along the rising Support Line. Each time price approached this trendline, buyers reacted strongly, confirming persistent demand. Meanwhile, the $3,960–$3,980 Buyer Zone has acted as a key accumulation area, where several fake breakouts occurred, but price quickly returned back above support — indicating seller failure and liquidity sweeps before bullish continuation. On the upper side, we have a clear Resistance Level and Seller Zone near $4,020–$4,040, where the market previously consolidated inside a range. Multiple rejections were seen in this zone, suggesting that sellers are active here and this remains the next significant reaction area for price. Recently, Gold has been gradually moving upward from the buyer zone, forming a steady corrective climb inside the current structure. At this stage, the trend remains bullish while price stays above the ascending Support Line and Buyer Zone. The immediate objective for buyers is a retest of the $4,020–$4,030 Resistance Level, where price may react again based on previous market behavior. A confirmed breakout above this zone would open the way for further continuation, while rejection could lead to another pullback into the support structure. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Gold’s Inverse Head and Shoulders PatternThe price has been dropping steadily and consistently so far. Check out my previous analysis:
Or click on the attached idea on my chart.
But here’s the thing, momentum is starting to shift.
If you look closely, you'll see that we’re forming an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. We have the first low, the left shoulder. Then, a deeper low, the head. And finally, a slightly higher low, the right shoulder.
Right now, price is sitting just above that downward-sloping neckline, which is a clear sign that momentum is beginning to change, and there are few obstacles in its way.
My expectation is for a pullback to retest the neckline, filtering out any fake moves, before potentially pushing upward toward 4,085. If the bullish momentum continues with strong volume, I’ll lock into the trend and plan my entry accordingly.
I might even take a buy position here for a more proactive setup. The risk is slightly higher, but with the market structure confirming it, I’m ready to enter because sometimes, the best trades come when you trust your setup.
Just sharing my thoughts on the chart, not financial advice. Always confirm your setup and manage your risk wisely.
XAUUSD – Liquidity taken, structure shifting bullishAfter sweeping the short-term liquidity around 4,088, price has started to show signs of a bullish structure shift. This movement suggests that Smart Money is accumulating below previous equal highs before driving price into the next imbalance zone above.
The main area of interest lies within the FVG Zone (4,157–4,218), where price may react as it taps into a Bearish Imbalance Supply. This zone holds unmitigated inefficiency from the previous sell-off, and it’s likely where institutional orders may start to take partial profits or initiate short re-entries.
Below current price, the Bullish Order Block around 3,862 remains the key mitigation area, refined on M15. It aligns perfectly with a clean displacement leg and offers an ideal level for a potential continuation if the market decides to rebalance after reaching the FVG.
The HTF Bullish OB near 3,766 stands as the final defense zone – a deeper liquidity pocket that would invalidate the short-term bullish bias if broken.
My main focus for today:
Watch how price reacts inside the 4,157–4,218 FVG Zone.
Look for sweep → BOS down → FVG fill to confirm short setups, or
Wait for a pullback into 3,862 OB for a potential re-entry long if the structure remains intact.
Bias remains bullish to neutral as long as price holds above 3,862. A clean close below this OB would shift attention toward 3,766 HTF demand for reaccumulation.
Patience is key — let liquidity and confirmation align before any entry. ✨
This is my personal view based on SMC principles – not financial advice. Like & Follow for daily London updates.
XAUUSD | Breakout Above Supply Zone – Targeting 4140–4150 NextGold has successfully broken above the supply zone (4020–4060), confirming a bullish structure shift after multiple rejections in the past week. The clean breakout now opens the path for a liquidity grab toward 4140–4150, aligning with higher timeframe inefficiencies.
Trade Plan:
Entry Zone: Retest of 4040–4060 (previous supply turned demand)
Bias: Bullish continuation
Target 1: 4129 (intra-day liquidity level)
Target 2: 4153 (major HTF resistance)
Invalidation: Below 4020
Gold 1H – Is This Pump Temporary or the Start of a Bigger Move?🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader
📈 Market Context
Gold extended its bullish leg overnight, driven by a sharp upside displacement following a clean ChoCH on the H1 structure.
However, the impulsive rally is now pushing deep into premium territory, where higher-timeframe supply begins to re-enter the picture.
Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of U.S. consumer confidence data and upcoming comments from several Fed officials.
• A hawkish tone could strengthen the dollar intraday, making the current rally vulnerable to a pullback.
• A neutral or dovish signal may allow gold to sweep higher liquidity before forming its next decisive move.
Price is currently tapping into resting buy-side liquidity above 4060–4070, with the next pool sitting just beneath the 4090 supply zone, making this an ideal location for short-term reversals.
🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Style)
• Structure: H1 bias remains bullish after the major ChoCH, but price is now entering an exhaustion phase as it reaches unmitigated supply.
• Premium Zone: 4090–4088 aligns with the freshest H1 supply, formed right before the displacement — a prime location for a short-term reversal.
• Liquidity Sweep: The candles show aggressive wicks into higher liquidity, suggesting the market may engineer one final sweep into 4090 before rotating downward.
• Discount Zone: 3974–3976 lines up with unmitigated demand and sits directly below the previous accumulation range — an ideal discount level for continuation buys if price retraces.
🔴 Sell Setup (High-Probability Reversal)
• Entry: 4090 – 4088
• Stop-Loss: 4100
• Take-Profit Targets: → 4040 (first liquidity pocket) → 4005 (return to structure) → 3976 (discount zone & demand confluence)
🟢 Buy Setup (Demand Reaction Setup)
• Entry: 3974 – 3976
• Stop-Loss: 3967
• Take-Profit Targets: → 4005 → 4040 → 4080
(Only valid if price performs a liquidity sweep into 3976 and prints a clean M15 ChoCH.)
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
• Avoid entering early inside the premium zone — wait for bearish confirmation (M5–M15 BOS).
• The demand at 3974–3976 is strong but only valid once liquidity beneath the range has been fully taken.
• Do not chase buys near current levels; price is overextended and has no discount alignment.
• Partial profits should be secured at each liquidity point, with stops trailed using structural highs/lows.
• Intraday bias remains bullish-to-neutral, but current price is at an extreme, making shorts more favorable short-term.
✅ Summary
Gold is reaching into a major premium zone near 4090, where a short-term reversal becomes highly probable.
The 4090–4088 supply provides a clean, high-quality SMC continuation-short setup, while the 3974–3976 demand zone remains the strongest location for reactive long positions.
Stay patient — today’s movement will likely determine whether the recent pump is temporary or the beginning of a broader structural shift.
FOLLOW RYAN_TITANTRADER for daily SMC setups ⚡
GOLD BULLISHd of october which resulted into a drainer in the october'smonthly candle and a minor bulish candle in the first week of november which acted as a very good support, we see gold flying in the open of this week's candle and the sentiment is a strong bullish momentum which has been the overall sentiment of the Gold market
Just as the analysis shows, we see a bulllish trend build up, and we're not even up to the 50% of the trend channel which implies theres still room for more pump in the market...
..........Further insights would be given as the market unfolds
Gold Breaks Out from Accumulation, Eyes Wave 3 Expansion🔍 Market Context
Gold kicked off the new week with strong upside momentum, perfectly aligning with MMFLOW’s previous outlook — calling for a Wave 3 impulse from the accumulation base around 3,940$ – 3,970$.
The market’s reaction in early Asia confirmed a bullish structural shift, as gold continues to gain traction amid stable yields and cautious sentiment around the US Dollar.
Macro catalysts remain balanced, but liquidity behavior suggests smart money is loading into the breakout phase, positioning early for a potential run toward the 4,100$ handle this week.
If momentum sustains, this move could mark the official mid-term reversal that MMFLOW anticipated — setting up a broader recovery phase into year-end.
📊 Technical Outlook (H4 Structure)
Gold continues to follow its Elliott Wave recovery path, now developing Wave (3) within the medium-term bullish cycle.
Key Technical Zones:
• 💎 Support: 3,942$ – 3,982$ (accumulation base & breakout retest)
• 🎯 Target 1: 4,072$ – 4,133$ (Wave 3 completion zone)
• ⚙️ Target 2 / Extended: 4,189$ – 4,201$ (Fibo 1.618 extension)
• ⚠️ Invalidation: Below 3,940$ → loss of short-term momentum, return to neutral structure.
The breakout above 4,000$ reinforces bullish sentiment, while higher highs and sustained volume through 4,072$ would confirm a new impulsive phase with room to expand further.
🎯 MMFLOW TRADING View
This breakout isn’t random — it’s a smart-money-led accumulation exit after weeks of liquidity sweeps.
The narrative remains consistent: “Buy the dips inside strength.”
As long as gold stays above 3,970$, the probability of retesting 4,100$+ remains high, and a move toward 4,200$ before year-end cannot be ruled out.
⚜️ MMFLOW Insight:
“When the crowd hesitates, liquidity has already chosen direction.”
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 10 - Nov 14]This week, international OANDA:XAUUSD prices continued to move sideways around the $4,000/oz mark and closed the week at $4,001/oz.
As the U.S. government remains partially shut down and economic data are incomplete, investors find it increasingly difficult to assess the state of the U.S. economy and its impact on the gold market. As a result, many are seeking opportunities in other markets, including stocks and the U.S. dollar. This explains why gold prices have been trading sideways.
Gold’s stability around the $4,000 level reflects an ongoing tug-of-war between fundamental factors — notably strong central bank buying, safe-haven demand, technical profit-taking pressure, and the rebound of the U.S. dollar.
Although gold prices may continue to move sideways next week, analysts believe the metal has greater upside potential than downside risk in the medium to long term.
📌From a technical perspective, the current resistance level is around 4,150, while support lies near 3,890. If the price breaks above 4,045, it could recover toward 4,150, and a further breakout could push it up to the 4,250 zone. Conversely, if the price falls below 3,900, it could trigger a sell-off, driving gold down toward the 3,750 area.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,750 – 3,900 USD
Resistance: 4,045 – 4,150 – 4,250 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4151 - 4149⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4155
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3955 - 3957⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3851
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook and Trade Plan for TodayGold continues to move inside a well-defined range after rejecting the 4048 resistance zone. The price action has completed a corrective “M-pattern” structure, hinting at potential downward pressure if buyers fail to hold above the 4030–4040 area.
Technical Breakdown
Key Resistance: 4048 – 4055 (previous swing high and Fibonacci retracement 0.786)
Immediate Support: 4000 – 3985 (mid-range liquidity zone)
Major Support Zone: 3920 – 3900 (target from projected harmonic leg)
EMA(9): Currently at 4033, acting as short-term dynamic support
Market Context
The recent bullish impulse appears exhausted as momentum slows near the upper boundary of the range. The RSI (H1) shows early signs of bearish divergence, confirming that buyers are losing strength. If the price closes below 4020, it could trigger a new wave of selling toward the 3950–3920 area.
Trading Strategy
Scenario 1 – Bearish Setup:
Sell below 4020 with targets at 3985 and 3920. Stop-loss above 4055.
Scenario 2 – Bullish Breakout:
A confirmed breakout and retest above 4055 could extend to 4088–4100.
Bias: Short-term bearish while below 4055.
Conclusion
Gold remains inside a corrective phase after testing upper resistance. Unless bulls defend 4030 strongly, bears may take control and drive price back to the lower boundary around 3920.
Keep this analysis saved and follow for more daily trading strategies and Fibonacci trendline setups to stay ahead of market moves.
Gold (XAUUSD): High R/R risky sellGold (XAUUSD): High R/R risky sell. Let's see if this setup works. go with low volume so you don't lose anything.
Cheers
We recommend buying gold on dips.Gold maintained a wide trading range, with a slight increase on Friday's daily chart. The price found support above the 5-day moving average, with the 10-day and 7-day moving averages around 3980. The RSI indicator is running above the midline. On the shorter-term 4-hour and hourly charts, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upwards, with the price trading near the upper band. Gold is currently near the upper edge of the trading range at 4050!
Looking at the 1-hour chart, the previous upward trend in gold has been broken. A strong rally to 4050 occurred during the Asian session, but the overall support level for gold is at 3965. Therefore, the upside potential for gold is likely to continue, but attention should be paid to key support levels. Buying on dips is recommended. In terms of trading volume, Friday's volume was relatively balanced, so we need to pay attention to whether there will be a further increase in volume. This would indicate a potential turning point in the gold market, with a possible larger short-term rise.
Key Levels:
First Support: 4030, Second Support: 3992, Third Support: 3975
First Resistance: 4046, Second Resistance: 4075, Third Resistance: 4140
Gold Trading Strategy:
Buy: 3975-3980, SL: 3965, TP: 4000-4010;
Sell: 4075-4080, SL: 4090, TP: 4060-4050;
More Analysis →
A Detailed Report on the Gold Market Until the End of December A Detailed Report on the Gold Market Until the End of December 2025
Fundamental Analysis (Fundamental Analysis)
Gold witnessed a record surge during 2025 that made it one of the best-performing assets, with its price exceeding $4,000 per ounce and delivering roughly 50% annual gains through October. This jump is attributed to a mix of economic and political factors that strengthened the appeal of the precious metal as a safe haven. Below are the most prominent fundamental factors affecting the gold market in the current period (November – December 2025):
Federal Reserve policy and rate decisions :
After a long tightening cycle during 2022–2024, the Federal Reserve reached peak interest rates and began shifting toward easing in late 2025. Investors expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming December meeting, following a similar cut in late October. Although the Fed cut rates in October, Jerome Powell’s tone was hawkish, which limited the positive effects of the cut and gave the dollar a temporary boost. In general, falling interest rates (and a lower real yield) support gold since it is a non-yielding asset, while higher rates weigh on it. For this reason, expectations for the start of a rate-cut cycle pushed gold higher this year, whereas any hawkish signals or rate hikes could weaken the metal’s bullish momentum.
Economic data (inflation, growth, unemployment) :
U.S. inflation slowed to about 3% in the fall of 2025—slightly above the Fed’s 2% target. Although it has moderated compared with the 2022 peak, inflation remains above target, keeping the focus on interest-rate policy. The labor market shows unemployment near 4% with a slight uptick during 2025, indicating moderate economic activity. Economic growth faced pressures due to prior monetary tightening and geopolitical uncertainty, prompting analysts to talk about mild stagflation risks. The latest inflation and employment data will play an important role in guiding Fed expectations, and thus gold’s movement through the remainder of the year.
Geopolitical tensions and global conflicts :
Rising geopolitical tensions were a key driver pushing gold prices higher. The ongoing war in Ukraine and instability in parts of the Middle East reinforced safe-haven demand. But the most notable development came on the U.S.–China front: U.S. President Donald Trump reignited the trade war in October by announcing 100% tariffs on China, sparking a wave of concern that propelled gold above $4,000 for the first time. This escalation drove investors strongly into gold and accelerated its climb. Later, in late October, there was a surprising breakthrough with the announcement of a trade truce between Washington and Beijing, including a one-year deal on rare earths, a reduction in some tariffs, and increased purchases of U.S. soybeans. This de-escalation trimmed geopolitical/trade fears and softened safe-haven demand for gold toward the end of the month. Additionally, other political factors—such as the U.S. government shutdown that occurred in early October—affected markets; as the shutdown entered its seventh day, economic uncertainty increased, adding another factor that sped up gold’s rise. On the other hand, Europe saw political tensions such as a government crisis in France, which contributed slightly to higher gold demand. In short, any renewed escalation—whether war, trade disputes, or political crises—would support gold, while any de-escalation or diplomatic solutions could ease the bullish momentum.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) :
Gold typically moves inversely to the dollar. In 2025, the dollar came under pressure and fell by about 10% against major currencies, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies and boosting demand. For example, when Trump warned of escalating the trade war in October, the dollar fell by about 0.5% immediately, supporting gold’s climb to new highs. But late in the month, with signs of a trade agreement and the Fed’s hawkish tone, the dollar rebounded, weighing on gold. The dollar’s recent strength—though temporary—drove gold to correct below $4,000 for a time. Overall, a weaker dollar lifts gold and the opposite is true; therefore the DXY’s path in the coming weeks—whether it continues to decline or rebounds supported by monetary policy—will be a decisive factor for gold’s movement.
Equity and bond markets :
Gold’s relationships with stocks and bonds in 2025 were shaped by economic uncertainty. During risk-off periods and equity market declines (such as on days of trade escalation), gold rose as investors rotated into safe havens. Conversely, with positive news and a return of risk appetite, we saw Wall Street rally and safe-haven demand for gold ease. For example, news of the trade truce and positive earnings from tech firms pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher in late October, coinciding with gold falling about 8% from its peak. U.S. bond yields had a dual effect: rising yields (from hawkish Fed expectations or higher inflation) increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and pressure its price. This occurred partly during the recent correction as Treasury yields reached relatively high levels, making bonds more attractive versus gold. By contrast, falling yields on expectations of rate cuts support gold—and we saw this for most of 2025 as the Fed kept rates elevated and then hinted at cuts, which lowered real yields and sent gold sharply higher. In short, any disruption in stocks or a drop in yields will be positive for gold, while persistent gains in stocks or yields may cap its upside temporarily.
Demand from central banks and institutions :
Global central banks have been buying gold at historic levels from 2022 through 2025 as part of a strategy to diversify reserves away from the dollar. They have been purchasing more than 1,000 tons of gold annually—double the previous decade’s average—to hedge against sanctions and inflation and reduce reliance on dollar assets. In 2025, this strong pace continued, providing structural support for the gold market (especially with record purchases from countries such as China, Kazakhstan, and Poland). Gold-backed ETFs likewise saw massive inflows from Western investors this year, with inflows exceeding $64 billion through Q3 2025—a record above the pandemic peak. This institutional investment demand reinforced the uptrend and helped gold break past prior price forecasts. Analysts, however, warn that a resolution of major conflicts (such as a final settlement to the war in Ukraine or in the Middle East) could reduce the hedging motives of central banks and investors. For now, official and investment demand remains a structural support for the market in the medium term.
Other factors :
U.S. public debt has risen to unprecedented levels ($36 trillion), raising concerns about fiscal sustainability, weakening long-term confidence in the dollar, and pushing some investors toward gold as a hedge. We also saw debates over the Fed’s independence and political pressures on it—especially under a new administration—which added to the motivations to hold gold as a hedge against any unconventional monetary policies. These structural factors (huge debts, erosion of confidence in the dollar, political risks) strengthened the notion of a re-evaluation of gold in the global financial system and made the yellow metal a focal point of financial debate in 2025 after decades of relative neglect.
Financial institutions’ forecasts for gold prices (November – December 2025)
Despite gold reaching historic levels this year, most houses remain cautiously optimistic about its performance for the rest of 2025. The current consensus points to gold trading between $3,800 and $4,000 on average during November and December. Forecasts also see the possibility of temporary rallies above $4,100 if the pace of U.S. rate cuts accelerates or if geopolitical conditions worsen again. Conversely, any political calm and continued monetary hawkishness may keep gold below $4,000 and perhaps push it toward the key $3,800 support. The main bank and institutional forecasts are as follows:
Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs remains the most bullish bank on gold. It raised its medium-term price forecast and expects gold to reach around $4,900 by December 2026. In the near term, Goldman sees scenarios in which gold could reach $5,000 if the Fed’s independence comes under pressure and investors shift just 1% of the U.S. bond market ($57 trillion) into gold. For the short term (end-2025), Goldman and other analysts estimate a range between the high $3,000s and low $4,000s, with potential upside if economic or political conditions deteriorate unexpectedly.
J.P. Morgan: J.P. Morgan adopted a strongly positive view of gold in 2025, considering it a high-conviction investment this year. It expects the uptrend to continue, supported by the onset of a U.S. rate-cut cycle. In its latest reports (October 2025), it maintained a long-term bullish view, expecting gold to average about $5,055 by Q4 2026. This aligns with its view that the move above $4,000 resulted from an economic cycle that will last for years. In the nearer term, the average of banks’ forecasts at the start of the year for 2025 quarters was about $3,400–$3,700, which gold has already exceeded. J.P. Morgan did not issue a specific number for end-2025 in its latest report, but it emphasized ongoing supportive factors (investor and central-bank demand) and favored further upside as the Fed begins easing policy.
Citi and HSBC: Banks such as HSBC and Citigroup took a more cautious approach after the recent jump. HSBC raised its average 2025 gold price forecast by only about $100 to $3,455 per ounce, implying prices remain near current levels on average (this figure is well below the current spot price above $4,000 because it’s an annual average). HSBC also sees the possibility of gold reaching $5,000 in 2026 if supportive factors persist. Citigroup, for its part, indicated that it trimmed its short-term forecasts slightly after gold rose above $4,300 and then declined, viewing part of the rally as exaggerated and temporary amid geopolitical panic. Overall, these institutions described the recent pullback below $4,000 as a healthy correction after a rapid rise, advising investors to act cautiously (lighten positions to lock in profits or hedge) while being ready to buy again at lower levels.
Other banks: Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,000 (from $3,700 previously) in light of strong official demand and tight recycled supply. Standard Chartered expects the average price to be $4,488 in 2026 with momentum continuing, supported structurally. Bank of America and UBS, among others, became more positive than they were at the start of 2025, with medium-term forecasts clustered between $4,200–$4,300 by 2026. Overall, the broad consensus is that gold will hold strong levels for the rest of this year, with a likely trading range between $3,800–$4,300—unless exceptional events push it outside this range. Out-of-consensus scenarios include negative inflation surprises or major geopolitical crises that could drive it toward testing $4,500 soon, or, conversely, strong growth data or major conflict resolutions that could pull it down toward $3,600–$3,700. But most analysts lean toward gold being relatively stable around current levels with a slight upward bias through the end of 2025.
Technical Analysis (Technical Analysis)
On the technical front, gold’s movement has been strongly bullish in recent months, interspersed with short, sharp corrections. Below we review price action and trend across several time frames—from the long frame (6 months) down to 5 minutes—with key support and resistance levels for each, along with near-term and year-end scenarios.
6-Month frame (semiannual): The semiannual chart (last 6 months) shows a strong, sustained uptrend for gold. During this period, price advanced about +21% (from ~$3,300 to >$4,000), posting a new all-time high around $4,381 per ounce in mid-October. This time frame indicates that gold has been forming successive higher lows and higher highs since mid-2025, confirming a long-term uptrend. Indicators on this horizon (such as long-term moving averages) support the continuation of the broader uptrend, with price still above most major averages. The most important supports on the semiannual frame are around $3,800–$3,830 (the latest main correction band), then $3,600 in case of a deeper decline. These levels are potential rebound zones as prior peaks turned into support. The clear resistance on this frame is the recent ATH at $4,381; a break above it would suggest the uptrend is continuing toward new targets, possibly psychological handles like $4,500 and above. Overall, the semiannual trend remains bullish unless price breaks below the $3,600–$3,800 support, which could signal a shift in the bullish structure.
3-Month frame (quarterly): Over the last 3 months, gold continued higher but at a slower pace as volatility increased. It opened near $3,860 three months ago, climbed to the $4,381 high, then pulled back to close near $4,000 at the start of November. This suggests the net quarterly gain was limited (~3.7%) due to the recent correction that erased part of the advance. On this frame, gold entered a corrective/sideways phase after its peak, forming a range between roughly $3,820 (quarterly support) and $4,100 (nearby quarterly resistance) in recent weeks. The nearest support on the quarterly chart is $3,820–$3,830 (roughly the October low), followed by $3,700–$3,750 if the correction deepens. On the other hand, immediate resistance sits around $4,070–$4,100 (a level that saw a bounce during the latest decline). A clear break above $4,100 could open the way to re-test the ATH at $4,380. The trend on this frame is broadly bullish but with weakened momentum lately.
1-Month frame (monthly): Looking at the monthly chart (monthly candles), we can see more detail for October and early November 2025. October’s candle was striking: it opened around $3,500–$3,600, then surged to the $4,380 high before closing near $4,000. This monthly candle formed a pattern akin to a “Shooting Star” with a long upper shadow, reflecting selling pressure in the second half of the month. Key monthly support lies around $3,800, then $3,600 as a lower support. Monthly resistance is naturally the $4,380 high.
1-Week frame (weekly): The weekly chart highlights movement in recent weeks. After a series of consecutive weekly gains, we saw a weekly reversal starting from the third week of October. Gold posted losses for two consecutive weeks by the end of October. The bearish candles indicate that price entered a short-term correction. The nearest important weekly support is $3,880 (last week’s low), followed by $3,800 as a strong support to watch, while weekly resistance is currently around $4,100–$4,110.
Summary of short-term technicals:
Daily (1D): The daily chart reveals recent moves in detail. After hitting the $4,381 peak, gold entered a short-term downtrend and bottomed near $3,997. Currently, price is trying to hold above the $4,000 level. The nearest daily support is $3,960–$3,980, then the stronger support around $3,900. Daily resistance is at $4,050–$4,070. The short-term trend is sideways with a slight bullish tilt.
4-Hour (4H): Price has formed a small double bottom around the $3,950–$3,980 area. Gold is currently moving in a tight sideways range between that support and the $4,050–$4,080 near-term resistance. The 4H trend is consolidation with a bullish bias.
1-Hour (1H): The hourly chart shows a series of minor rising highs and lows, indicating gradual recovery. Very close support is $4,000, then $3,980. Hourly resistance is $4,060, then $4,100. The current move is a slight corrective uptrend (minor uptrend), but relatively weak.
Short frames (30, 15, 5 minutes): On these intervals, gold is oscillating in a defined, narrow range, often between $4,000 and $4,050, awaiting a catalyst to break the current choppiness. The trend on these frames is broadly neutral.
Summary table – support/resistance levels and trend by time frame
/*
Summary table — support/resistance levels and trend by time frame
+------------------------+--------------------------------------+-----------------------------------------------+----------------------------------------------+
| Time Frame | Current Trend | Nearest Support | Nearest Resistance |
+------------------------+--------------------------------------+-----------------------------------------------+----------------------------------------------+
| 6 months (semiannual) | Strong uptrend (long-term trend) | $3,800-$3,830 (major) / $3,600 (next) | $4,380 (ATH) / $4,500 (psych.) |
| 3 months (quarterly) | Broadly bullish; slowing momentum | $3,820 (correction low) / $3,700 (lower) | $4,070-$4,100 (immediate) / $4,380 (ATH) |
| 1 month (monthly) | Bullish; signs of exhaustion | $3,800 (strong) / $3,600 (lower) | $4,380 (Oct high) / $4,500 (target if break) |
| 1 week (weekly) | Up overall; corrective now | $3,880 (last weekly low) / $3,800 (pivot) | $4,100 (weekly) / $4,380 (major/ATH) |
| 1 day (daily) | Choppy; slight bullish bias | $3,960 (daily) / $3,900 (strong) | $4,070 (daily) / $4,150 (higher) |
| 4 hours (4H) | Sideways; bullish tilt | $3,950 (intraday) / $3,900 (secondary) | $4,050 (immediate) / $4,120 (next) |
+------------------------+--------------------------------------+-----------------------------------------------+----------------------------------------------+
*/
Expected weekly trend and end-2025 scenario
Weekly scenario (first week of November):
Gold will likely see steady performance with a chance of a slight rise. After its recent decline, the yellow metal appears to be in a phase of regrouping strength. The most likely outcome is that gold will fluctuate within a defined range, perhaps between $3,900 as support and $4,100 as resistance, with attempts to break higher. The nearer scenario is range-bound trade with a bullish tilt.
End-2025 scenario:
As we approach the end of December 2025, expectations vary. The most likely scenario is that gold remains within a relatively wide range of about $3,800 to $4,400 through the end of December, with an overall bias toward moderate gains. We may see gold attempt to re-test its all-time high at $4,380 during November or December if strong catalysts emerge. A slide below $3,800 would mean the market is entering a deeper correction. Therefore, it is more likely that gold stays above $3,800. A realistic end-2025 outcome could be a price near $4,100–$4,200 per ounce. In sum, the overall trend through the end of 2025 leans toward moderate upside with the possibility of a record annual gain for gold, but within a volatile trading framework.
Relationship with other markets and channels of mutual influence
There are important correlations between gold and several other markets (currencies, interest rates, equities) that play a role in its price action. Details follow:
Gold’s relationship with the U.S. dollar (USD & DXY): Historically, gold is inversely correlated with the strength of the U.S. dollar. In 2025, this correlation was clear; the roughly 10% weakening of the dollar over the year was one of the reasons for gold’s strong rise. Any significant dollar rally could cap gold’s advance, while continued dollar weakness or further declines would create a favorable environment for gold to resume rising.
Gold’s relationship with U.S. interest rates and bond yields: The level of real interest rates is among the most important determinants of gold’s price. When Treasury yields rise, holding gold becomes less attractive. Conversely, rate cuts and falling yields strongly support gold. Gold’s direction in the coming months will be inversely linked to the path of interest rates.
Gold’s relationship with equities (S&P 500 and Nasdaq): Gold is inversely related to equities in a risk-appetite context. During market turmoil and falling stocks, demand for gold as a hedge increases, pushing its price higher. This pattern appeared several times in 2025. Through the end of 2025, if equities remain strong, gold may struggle to surpass its recent highs, while any pullback in stocks (even a moderate one) will support gold.
Conclusion
The gold market in the final months of 2025 remains in investors’ sights given its large gains and the surrounding uncertainties. The fundamental analysis points to a mix of supportive drivers (monetary easing, political risks, investment demand) and opposing ones (profit-taking, potential dollar strength). Technical analysis confirms that the broader trend is up, but the market is currently in a phase of correction and consolidation. A breakout from the current range is likely to be decided by upcoming Fed decisions and developments in trade and geopolitics. Investors are advised to monitor these factors closely and remain flexible, as gold continues to be a strategic hedge in an unstable global environment.
Sources
Official news and reports (Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA) in addition to analyses from financial agencies such as Bloomberg, Reuters, Investing, Forex Factory, and others were relied upon to ensure the accuracy of the information and forecasts above.
