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XAUUSD | Gold Holds Firm as Buyers Dominate the MarketGold continues to demonstrate a strong and orderly bullish structure, with momentum sustained by a combination of market confidence and macroeconomic positioning. The metal’s consistent upward drive reflects ongoing demand for safety amid lingering inflationary concerns and uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery. Institutional accumulation remains visible, suggesting that investors are positioning ahead of potential policy adjustments and currency fluctuations. The recent moderation phase appears to be a controlled pause rather than weakness, indicating that buyers are maintaining control while the market digests prior gains. Should current stability in yields persist and geopolitical tensions remain elevated, gold could extend its advance in the medium term, reaffirming its role as a key hedge within diversified portfolios.
TVC:GOLDLong
by XAU_EMPIRE
SILVER: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long! My dear friends, Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 52.802 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 53.558.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by FreeXauusdSignals
GOLD Set To Fall! SELL! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the GOLD next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 4196.3 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 4171.1 My Stop Loss - 4210.0 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by AnabelSignals
2
Markets Brace for U.S. Retail Sales & Fed VolatilityXAUUSD – Intraday Trading Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader 📈 Market Context Gold prices hover near $4,190 after an early-week rally as traders brace for U.S. Retail Sales data and a new round of Federal Reserve speeches later today. Recent gains were fueled by softer inflation readings, yet the dollar remains resilient amid hawkish undertones from Fed officials. Markets are now balancing between expectations of slower growth and persistent rate-cut caution. A stronger-than-expected Retail Sales print could pressure gold temporarily, but any dovish signal from Fed speakers may quickly restore bullish momentum. Expect liquidity hunts on both sides before a confirmed direction forms. 🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Style) • Structure remains bullish after multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) and a recent Change of Character (ChoCH) confirmation. • Price is approaching the Premium Zone (4211–4209) — a potential liquidity sweep area where short-term sellers may react. • Below, the H1 FVG Buy Zone (4145–4149) offers a discount entry aligned with recent BOS support and previous mitigation points. • Maintaining a bullish bias while awaiting clean reaction within the FVG zone is key for continuation toward new highs. 🔴 Sell Setup: 4211 – 4209 SL: 4218 TP targets: 4190 → 4175 → 4155 🟢 Buy Setup: 4145 – 4147 SL: 4138 TP targets: 4170 → 4190 → 4220+ ⚠️ Risk Management Tips • Wait for M15 ChoCH/BOS confirmation before entry to avoid false breaks. • Expect high volatility around Retail Sales and Fed remarks — spread widening is likely. • Partial take-profits near intra-day liquidity points are recommended. ✅ Summary XAUUSD remains bullish on structure but faces a potential liquidity grab around 4211–4209 before retracing into the H1 FVG buy zone (4145–4149). Smart money may seek to accumulate long positions after a controlled pullback, especially if Fed commentary echoes a slower policy tightening path. Intraday bias leans Buy the Dip, with caution around macro-driven volatility spikes.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
10
Gold can be Rejected from Channel ResistanceHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. The market context for Gold has been strongly bullish since the price action broke out of a prolonged consolidation range that was based in the 3325 buyer zone. This structural shift initiated a new uptrend, with the price action for XAU having been guided higher within a well-defined upward channel. The asset has shown significant strength, breaking through multiple levels, including the current support level at 3845. Currently, after completing a strong impulsive wave, the price is trading very close to the resistance line of this upward channel, consolidating near the highs. In my mind, this is a logical area for the bullish momentum to pause and for a correction to begin. I expect the price to soon be rejected from this channel's upper boundary and initiate a new corrective swing to the downside. I think a confirmed reversal from this area would validate the short scenario. Therefore, I have placed my TP at the 3845 level, targeting the recent breakout area, which should now act as the first major support. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by LegionQ8
14
Risks and opportunities exist at the same time, continue to buyGold Technical Analysis Daily Resistance: 4200, Support: 3945 4-Hour Resistance: 4220, Support: 4090 1-Hour Resistance: 4220, Support: 4180 Gold prices have already broken through the 4200 mark today, effectively erasing any bearish concerns. Yesterday, I was hoping for a pullback to 4060, offering a better entry point, but the rally was too strong, and the pullback stalled around 4100. From the current structure, gold has found support at 4180 and 4150. If it stalls there today, you can still buy in. The only caveat is not to set a stop-loss that's too small, but don't cancel it either. Doing so can easily lead to false breakouts, as has been the case with recent large and rapid movements. Although gold remains in a bull market, as prices continue to rise, sudden and rapid intraday declines like Tuesday's will only become more frequent and more severe. All we can do is continue to follow the upward trend while remaining vigilant and prepared to react to any potential corrections. Trading today, we continue to prioritize buying on dips, focusing on support levels around 4180-4150. BUY: near 4180 BUY: near 4150
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ActuaryJ
“I Am Become Meme, Destroyer of Short-Sellers”: Gold at $4,200Remember those days where you could short gold and turn a profit? They’re gone. The precious metal is relentlessly pushing higher, breaking every short-seller’s dreams and portfolio. It’s official — gold has gone full meme. The shiny metal that your grandparents swore by is now trending on Reddit threads, popping in Discord chats, and somehow getting the same hype energy as Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA in 2023 and Dogecoin COINBASE:DOGEUSD in 2021. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD just crossed $4,200 per ounce early Wednesday, notching a 60% gain year-to-date — its best run in modern history and enough to make short-sellers lose sleep and tons of cash. Its market cap now sits near $30 trillion, which means there’s more money parked in gold than the nominal GDP of every country not named the United States. Let’s unpack what’s fueling this blistering rally and why traders just can’t stop buying. 🪙 Gold as the Trade of 2025? Not too long ago, gold was a boring asset that just sat there like a pet rock. Not anymore. The OG store of value is finding new meaning as the “asset for uncertain times.” That is, even amid an ongoing earnings season . What’s driving it? Pretty much everything that usually rattles markets. • Rate cut expectations: The Fed’s recent pivot toward easing has taken real yields lower — and gold loves that. Non-yielding assets look a lot more appealing when Treasuries don’t pay much. • Geopolitical jitters: The Trump-Xi trade tension reboot has everyone looking for a hedge that doesn’t involve a risk disclaimer the size of a novel. • ETF inflows: Gold-backed ETFs are hoovering up bullion at record pace as everyone seeks exposure to the precious metal. Add in central bank hoarding — especially from China, India, and Turkey — and you’ve got a near-perfect cocktail for demand. 💰 Meme Metal or Market Masterclass? Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets is now flooded with gold posts, some featuring rocket emojis other saying it’s one big bubble. Regardless, the retail crowd is buzzing with memes, showing that the age-old asset has reached its youngest audience. Individual traders are clearly in on the move, and the narrative is simple enough to spread like wildfire — gold is going up, it’s at record highs, and there’s a clean number to chase: $5,000 . Is it rational? Maybe not entirely. If 2021 taught markets anything, it’s that “meme energy” can be a legitimate technical indicator. But it will take more than undergrads buying on their iPads to move this $30 trillion behemoth. ⚖️ The Case for (Even) Higher Prices The $5,000 target — just 20% away — doesn’t sound crazy to gold bulls. Here’s why: • Fed momentum: With the labor market showing signs of cracking, two more rate cuts are priced in for this year. • Central bank accumulation: Global reserves are quietly diversifying away from the dollar. It’s a structural de-dollarization move and (likely) not a phase. • Broader liquidity wave: Investors are flush with cash, even amid the AI boom, and some of that money inevitably spills into gold. 😬 The Other Side of the Coin But before you run to your local pawn shop with diamond hands, it’s worth noting: no rally goes vertical forever. Gold’s RSI has hovered above 70 for weeks — deep in overbought territory. Historically, every time the metal’s gone this far this fast, there’s been a pullback of 10-15% to shake out the latecomers. Add in profit-taking, potential surprise Fed commentary, and a stronger dollar bounce, and you could see a retest of support near $3,850–$3,900. And don’t forget the opportunity cost. When rates eventually bottom, stocks and crypto could start reclaiming their allure. Gold doesn’t pay yield, doesn’t innovate, and doesn’t post memes — it just sits there, shiny and smug. 🥈 The Silver Lining If gold’s story sounds wild, silver’s chart looks even wilder. Silver OANDA:XAGUSD topped $53.60 earlier this week — up 83% year-to-date — riding on both industrial demand and good old FOMO. ETFs tracking silver have seen some of their largest inflows ever, with some day traders even rotating profits from gold to silver in hopes of juicing returns. When both metals rally together, it usually signals broad market uncertainty — and a collective “we don’t trust anything else right now” mood. Off to you : How are you navigating the gold rush? Are you in already, looking to get in, or calling tops and lower from here? Share your views in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradingView
19
GOLD Will Move Higher! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD. Time Frame: 8h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 4,069.35. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 4,202.88 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by SignalProvider
1
XAUUSD GOLD 15/10: Breakout Analysis and Scalping Plan📈 Overall Analysis (XAUUSD - H1/H4) Gold Price (XAUUSD) had a positive trading day, confirming a short-term uptrend with clear technical signals: Breakout Confirmation: The price has successfully broken above the key local Resistance level (around $4,179 - $4,180) and is maintaining its upward momentum. This indicates that buying pressure is dominant. Trend Line: The price is moving within an established ascending channel, suggesting a continuation to conquer higher peaks. Fibonacci Target: The current movement is believed to align with the extended Fibonacci sequence, aiming for higher targets, especially the 4.618 zone (according to extended analysis). 🔑 Key Price Levels Main Resistance: 4200 - 4240 - 4250 - 4350 Main Support: 4185 - 4180 - 4170 - 4165 🎯 Scalping Trading Plan (15/10) We will employ a flexible scalping strategy, applied at key Support and Resistance zones. 🟢 BUY Scenario - Wait for Pullback to Breakout Zone This scenario waits for the price to pull back to retest the recently broken resistance zone (Liquidity Trendline) to continue the upward momentum. Entry Zone: GOLD 4153 - 4150 Stop Loss (SL): 4144 Take Profit (TP): TP1: 4165 TP2: 4180 TP3: 4200 TP4: 4220 TP Open: 4240 🔴 SELL Scenario - Scalping at Resistance This is a scalping scenario when the price reaches the strong upper Resistance zone (according to extended Fibonacci analysis), expecting a short-term correction. Entry Zone: GOLD 4297 - 4300 Stop Loss (SL): 4306 Take Profit (TP): TP1: 4290 TP2: 4280 TP3: 4270 TP4: 4260 TP Open: 4230 ⚠️ Important Notes Risk Management: Always Full TP, SL (set complete Take Profit and Stop Loss) to preserve capital and win the market. Flexibility: Scalping strategy requires high flexibility. Monitor price action at Support/Resistance zones to find accurate entry signals. News: Always follow the economic calendar to avoid unexpected strong volatility.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Linda_OneShotTrader
How High Will Gold Go? It Depends on the DollarThe inverse relationship between gold and the dollar is evident. Interestingly, we observe that when the dollar falls, gold rises—but the magnitude of gold’s increase is often greater than the dollar’s decline. As we can see when dollar declines, gold went up. From 2001 to 2011, when dollar was down, gold went up. From 2017 to 2020, when dollar was down, gold went up. And from 2022 to current, when dollar is down, gold is up. With de-dollarization, this also means gold may have more upside potential. Conversely, when the dollar increases, gold declines by almost the same magnitude. Apart from de-dollarization, what are the other reasons dollar will face more headwinds? There are three elements • Existing debt, • more money printing and • tariffs, All these 3 elements are not going to go away anytime soon, as long as the debt continue to rise, more money to be printed and more tariffs impose, dollar downtrend is likely to continue. When dollar is down, gold is up. And these trends did not happen recently. It is taking shape over the past decades with a lower dollar, we can see how nicely the trends have seated on its historical troughs and peaks forming the channel for the dollar, and also in the gold over the decades. This tutorial video version: Mirco Gold Futures and Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
2026 Precious Metals ETF Playbook: GDX SIL PPLT Parabolic Rally🚀 2026 Precious Metals Playbook: Why GDX, SIL & PPLT Could Go Parabolic ________________________________________ 🏁 Gold’s 2025 melt-up has flipped the script: spot blew through records and major banks now float targets near $3,800 by late-2025 and ~$3,900 by mid-2026. With expected Fed cuts, a softer USD, and persistent central-bank buying, the macro setup could keep miners turbocharged into 2026. 🧲 At the same time, robust demand (ETF inflows + central banks) even with real yields elevated shows that “fear and fiscal” have joined real rates as primary drivers. That’s the kind of buyer base that can underpin a blow-off leg higher in gold. 🔥 The gamma-squeeze setup is real in commodities too: heavy call buying can force dealers to chase deltas in futures, adding fuel to upside. If momentum reignites, gold’s second leg could shock even the bulls. ⚡️Silver is riding a different (but rhyming) story: persistent structural deficits and 14-year-high prices, with industry demand led by solar PV, electronics, EVs—and increasingly high-end compute/AI infrastructure where silver-bearing solders, contacts, and power electronics are critical. ☀️Macro tailwinds for silver’s industrial side look alive into 2026: PV installations, grid storage rollouts, and electrification keep factory demand stout—even with ongoing thrifting. Sheer volume growth can still outmuscle intensity declines. 🛠️Platinum’s bull case hinges on multi-year market deficits, entrenched autocatalyst substitution from palladium, and optionality from the early hydrogen economy. Supply hiccups in South Africa, paired with steady auto/industrial draws, can squeeze inventories quickly. ________________________________________ 🎯 Aggressive 2026 Scenarios & Targets 🧭 Premise: a “second-leg” melt-up where gold futures extend from ~$3,500 toward ~$7,000 (+100%) via treasury-to-hard-assets rotation and options-driven squeezes; silver plays catch-up with an industrial/safe-haven crescendo; platinum rides persistent deficits and auto/hydrogen demand. GDX — VanEck Gold Miners ETF Aggressive 2026 price target: $150–$220 (vs. ~$70 now). Why it could happen: • 💹 Margin math: with AISCs roughly anchored, every +$1000/oz in gold drops largely to miner margins, historically producing 2–3× sensitivity in equities vs. the metal. • 🔁 Flow catalysts: ETF inflows, central-bank buying, CTA trend signals, and options gamma dynamics can stack. • 🏦 Treasury rotation: if real yields slide and fiscal angst lingers, the allocation shift into gold miners can snowball. SIL — Global X Silver Miners ETF Aggressive 2026 price target: $95–$130 (vs. ~$66 now). Why it could happen: • 🏭 Industrial drumbeat: PV growth into 2026 + electrification keeps factory demand strong—even with thrifting. • 🧮 Deficit persistence: multiple years of market deficits tighten balances and prime upside tails. • 🧠 AI halo effect: data-center buildouts and advanced packaging sustain electronics demand where silver’s conductivity wins, adding narrative firepower to price action. PPLT — abrdn Physical Platinum Shares Aggressive 2026 price target: $250–$375 (vs. ~$128 now). Why it could happen: • ⛏️Deficits, again: without a step-change in mine supply, persistent market shortfalls can spark violent repricing. • 🚗 Sticky substitution: platinum that replaced palladium in gasoline autocats is embedded in designs—demand that doesn’t easily reverse. • 🔋 Optionality: PEM electrolyzers/fuel cells (hydrogen) magnify the upside if policy or energy security tightens timelines. ________________________________________ 🧭 2026 Primary Drivers to Track 🏛️Monetary & macro: Fed path, USD, and real yields remain core—if they trend down, gold’s opportunity cost falls and risk-hedging bids rise. 🏦 Official sector: Central-bank purchases have become a structural pillar—watch for continuity (or pauses) in monthly updates. 📈 Flows & positioning: ETF creations, futures options open interest, and CTA signals can amplify moves far beyond fundamentals (gamma-squeeze dynamics). Industrial pulse (silver): PV installations, EV production, grid/storage rollouts, and semiconductor packaging demand. Even with thrifting, sheer volume growth can drive sustained demand. 🔌 ________________________________________ 🔍 Other High-Octane Catalysts To Watch 🧩 Policy whiplash: tariffs, clean-energy incentives, and regional manufacturing policies can shift where PV growth lands, but global additions remain robust into 2026. 🌍 Geopolitical risk: commodity sanctions, shipping disruptions, and elections tend to feed gold’s safe-haven bid and can intermittently kink PGM supply chains. ⚙️South Africa power stability: any setbacks could crimp platinum supply; under-investment keeps the system fragile even with recent improvements. ________________________________________ 🧱 Positioning Blueprint (conceptual, not advice) 🧮 In a $7k gold blue-sky, miners should outrun the metal (margin + duration), silver miners should over-beta gold if the PV/AI/EV demand boom continues, and platinum offers clean metal-beta through PPLT. Platinum miners could add torque but also carry South Africa–specific risks. ⚠️Risks: inflation re-acceleration forcing hikes, a USD surge, ETF liquidation waves, PV-demand disappointments, or supply snap-backs could maul these targets; miners also carry idiosyncratic risks (cost inflation, permitting, geopolitics). ________________________________________ 🎯 Targets (2026 “go-for-it” bull case) • 🎢 GDX: $150–$220 on 2–3× torque to a gold melt-up, plus multiple expansion. • 🧪 SIL: $95–$130 if silver sprints on deficits + PV/AI/EV demand, with miners over-beta. • 🧰 PPLT: $250–$375 with sustained platinum deficits and sticky auto substitution.
AMEX:GDXLong
by ProjectSyndicate
46
GAMMA SQUEEZE: Why Gold Prices will hit 5 000 + USDBottom line If 1% of Treasuries ($278B) rotates into gold, $5,000/oz is not only plausible—it sits inside the low end of what flow math + today’s market microstructure can deliver. The path (and whether we print $8k+ spikes) hinges on how much of that flow shows up as short-dated calls—because that is what turns steady demand into a self-feeding gamma loop. ________________________________________ Executive summary • A 1% rotation out of U.S. Treasuries is roughly $278B of new gold demand (using SIFMA’s latest estimate that Treasuries outstanding ≈ $27.8T). • At today’s context (gold ~$3.53k/oz on Sep 2–5, 2025), $278B buys ~79.4M oz ≈ 2,471 tonnes; at $5k/oz it buys ~55.6M oz ≈ 1,729 tonnes. For scale, annual mine supply ≈ 3,661 t and total above-ground stocks ≈ 216,265 t (bars/coins+ETFs ≈ 48,634 t). • That flow is huge relative to both quarterly demand value (Q2’25 ≈ $132B) and typical daily trading turnover (~$290B/day across OTC, futures & ETFs). Even spread out, it materially tilts the tape; if concentrated and routed via options, it can produce dealer hedging feedback—i.e., a gamma squeeze. • Price targets (framework, not prophecy): o Conservative flow-only: +40–60% → $4,900–$5,600/oz o Base case (flow + some options reflexivity): +70–110% → $6,000–$7,500/oz o Squeeze/overshoot window (short-dated calls heavy): episodic spikes >$8,000/oz possible, but hard to sustain without continued flow. These bands come from scaling prior ETF-driven episodes (notably ~877 t ETF inflow in 2020 alongside a ~+36% price run) and sizing against current market depth, while layering a realistic options-hedging multiplier (details below). ________________________________________ 1) What a “gamma squeeze” in gold means (and why it can happen) Definition (in one line): When call buying concentrates near-dated, near-the-money strikes, dealers short gamma must buy futures as price rises (and sell if it falls) to keep neutral—this feedback accelerates upside (“gamma squeeze”). Why it’s plausible in gold right now: • The listed derivatives stack is large. As of Fri, Sep 5, 2025, CME’s daily bulletin shows COMEX gold options open interest ~0.80M contracts (calls ~0.49–0.69M; puts ~0.30–0.38M depending on line item), each on 100 oz—i.e., option OI notionally ties to ~2,400–2,800 t of gold. That is the powder keg a call-wave can act on. • Implied vol is moderate (GVZ ~18 for 30-day GLD options), so vega is “affordable,” gamma is punchy in the front end. • CME’s CVOL framework and open-interest tools confirm where strikes/expiries cluster; when OI stacks close to spot and near expiry, market-wide gamma becomes most sensitive. Back-of-envelope hedging math (illustrative): For a 30-day, at-the-money option with σ≈18%, the Black-Scholes gamma is about Γ≈ϕ(0)SσT≈0.399S⋅0.18⋅30/365\Gamma \approx \frac{\phi(0)}{S\sigma\sqrt{T}} \approx \frac{0.399}{S\cdot 0.18 \cdot \sqrt{30/365}}. At S=$3,500/oz, that’s ~0.0022 per $. A +1% move (+$35) bumps delta by ~0.077 per option. If just 150k near-ATM front-tenor calls are held by customers (dealers short gamma), hedge buying ≈ 150,000 × 100 oz × 0.077 ≈ 1.16M oz ≈ 36 t—per 1% price pop. That’s only a slice of total OI; a broader crowding raises this number. Compare with ~2,500 t/day of global turnover and you can see how concentrated dealer hedging can move price intraday. ________________________________________ 2) Sizing a 1% Treasury → gold rotation Treasury base: latest SIFMA comment put U.S. Treasuries outstanding ≈ $27.8T (Q1’25). 1% → $278B. Gold the rotation would buy: • At $3,500/oz: $278B → ~79.4M oz → ~2,471 t • At $5,000/oz: $278B → ~55.6M oz → ~1,729 t For scale: • Annual mine supply (2024): ~3,661 t; total supply (incl. recycling): ~4,974 t. A $278B buy ticket equals 47–67% of a year’s mine output (depending on price), or ~35–50% of total annual supply. • ETF precedent: In 2020, ~877 t net ETF inflow (~$48B) coincided with a ~+36% move from Jan→Aug 2020. Today’s $278B is ~5–6× that dollar size (and ~2–3× the tonnes, depending on price), hinting at large flow-driven upside even before any options reflexivity. • Turnover lens: WGC puts average daily trading across OTC/futures/ETFs at roughly $290B/day recently. A $278B program is ~one day’s global turnover. Pushed quickly (or skewed to options), that’s impactful; stretched over months, the price impact softens but still accumulates. Futures-only lens (capacity check): At $3,500/oz, one COMEX GC contract notionally = $350k (100 oz). $278B equals ~794k GC contracts. Current futures OI is ~0.49M contracts, so this exceeds all COMEX OI—you cannot push that much via futures quickly without major repricing. Even at $5,000/oz (~$500k/contract), it’s ~556k contracts, still comparable to the entire OI. ________________________________________ 3) Price-target framework (with the math that gets you there) Think of the price in layers: (A) base flow impact + (B) options-gamma reflexivity + (C) second-round effects (short-covering, momentum, FX, central banks). A) Flow-only impact (calibrated to 2020) • 2020 anchor: 877 t ETF inflow ↔ ~+36% price. Using a simple proportionality, 1,729–2,471 t (your $278B) maps to ~+71% to +101%. • Apply to spot ≈ $3,532/oz (early Sep 2025): o +71% → ~$6,050/oz o +101% → ~$7,100/oz Caveat: 2020 had unique macro tailwinds, so I treat this as upper-middle of base range. B) Options reflexivity / gamma squeeze overlay If 20–30% of the $278B rotation expresses via short-dated calls (common for levered macro expressions), dealer hedging can amplify flow impact: • From the OI math earlier, a mere 1% up-move can demand ~20–40 t of dealer hedge buying if near-ATM OI is thick. A 3–5% multi-day grind can easily cascade into 100–200 t of incremental buying from hedgers alone. That’s non-trivial vs. mine supply pace, and it pulls forward upside. • Result: add another +10–20% to the flow-only levels during a squeeze while it lasts. C) Second-round effects • Central banks: still persistent net buyers (>1,000 t/yr pace in recent years), tending to fade dips rather than rallies—a structural bid. • FX & rates: the GVZ ~18 regime means bursts of vol aren’t “expensive”; a weakening USD or policy shocks can tilt the target higher. Putting it together—scenario bands Scenario Assumptions Implied move Target Conservative $278B spread over 6–9 months, mostly physical/ETFs; limited options +40–60% $4,900–$5,600 Base case 50–70% to physical/ETFs, 30–50% to futures/options; moderate dealer short-gamma +70–110% $6,000–$7,500 Squeeze / overshoot Short-dated call concentration, dealers persistently short gamma; flow bunches in weeks +120–>150% (episodic) >$8,000 (brief spikes) $5,000 target is well within the conservative band if any meaningful fraction of the $278B pushes through quickly, even without a full-blown gamma loop. ________________________________________ 4) Why the market could mechanically gap higher • Market size vs. flow: Q2’25 total demand value = $132B. Dropping $278B into this ecosystem is a 2× quarterly shock. • Trading capacity: $278B ≈ one full day of global turnover; price impact is convex when the risk-absorption (dealers, miners, recyclers) cannot scale linearly day-by-day. • Derivatives gearing: With ~0.8M options contracts OI outstanding and futures OI ~0.49M, even a partial shift into calls forces hedge-buys on the way up, the hallmark of a squeeze. ________________________________________ 5) Key risks / reality checks • Time profile of the rotation matters. A slow, programmatic shift spreads impact; a front-loaded move can overshoot then mean-revert as gamma decays. • Elasticity is asymmetric. Jewelry/fabrication falls at high prices (demand destruction), recycling rises, both cushioning extremes. That moderates how long >$7k can persist without continued flow. • Volatility regimes change. If GVZ spikes to high-20s/30s, option premia jump, slowing new call demand; conversely, put demand can flip net gamma long for dealers, dampening squeezes. ________________________________________ References (most load-bearing) • Treasury base: SIFMA—Treasuries outstanding $27.8T (Feb 2025). • Gold supply & stocks: WGC—Above-ground stock 216,265 t (end-2024); bars/coins+ETFs 48,634 t; mine supply 2024 ≈ 3,661 t. • Trading turnover: WGC—gold trading ≈ $290B/day. • ETF precedent: WGC—2020 ETF inflows 877 t (~$47.9B) alongside major price rise. • Current price context: Reuters—record highs $3,532/oz set in early Sep 2025. ( • Options/hedging plumbing: CME daily bulletin (Sep 5, 2025) showing gold options OI ~0.8M contracts; CME CVOL/tools; Cboe GVZ ~18 as 30-day IV. ________________________________________
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
41
DeGRAM | GOLD reached the resistance line📊 Technical Analysis ● XAU/USD reached the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 4,168, where a bearish takeover pattern formed, signaling potential exhaustion. ● A breakdown below 4,092 could confirm the start of a correction toward 4,034 and possibly 3,950 as price retests prior support within the channel. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Gold faces pressure as U.S. Treasury yields stabilize and the dollar strengthens amid hawkish Fed outlooks. ✨ Summary ● Short bias below 4,168; targets 4,034–3,950. Technical rejection and dollar strength favor short-term downside correction. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by DeGRAM
1
Setting new highs, it is right to go long on the pullbackI reminded everyone yesterday that once the W-shaped formation is confirmed and structural support is provided for the bulls, the upward trend will continue. The final result is in line with our expectations again. Gold is still fluctuating upward. If this trend continues, it is expected to reach 4210-4230. As the price of gold continues to rise and returns to a unilateral upward trend, the short-term highs and support are also moving up. From the perspective of the big cycle trend, the current daily MA5 moving average and the 4H middle track have also come to around 4088-4090, which is also the position that short-term bulls need to focus on defending. Before failing to effectively fall below this position, we can still maintain the bullish trend unchanged, and any decline can be regarded as an opportunity for bulls to enter the market. Judging from the hourly chart, the current gold price has reached the 42,000 integer mark. The continuous upward fluctuation has caused the current technical indicators to enter the overbought risk zone. Do not blindly chase the rise in the short term and be alert to the market's potential correction demand. The short-term support can be seen at 4180-4165. If gold subsequently falls back to this short-term support, we can consider continuing to go long on gold. OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Perfect_Allen
Silver - Expecting Bullish Continuation In The Short TermH4 - Strong bullish momentum. No opposite signs. Until the two Fibonacci support zones hold I expect the price to move higher further. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EIGHTCAP:XAGUSDLong
by VladimirRibakov
GOLD ANALYSIS TODAY | BULLISH TREND | XAUUSD OCT 15.2025 ☄️ Gold Market Outlook 10/ 15 (Based on SMC) ☄️ 📊 Over Trend 🔤The market remains bullish, confirmed by a continuous sequence of BOS to the upside. 🔤Minor CHoCHs only indicate short-term retracements, not trend reversals. 🔤The main demand area is located between 4110–4130, where Smart Money previously accumulated. 🏆 Trading Plan 🔼 Scenario 1 — Continuation Buy 🔤 Reason: Price broke structure above 4170, confirming bullish momentum. FVG zone 4140–4155 is likely to attract institutional re-entries. 🔤 Conditions: Wait for price to retrace into 4140–4155 and form a bullish CHoCH confirmation. 🔤 Entry: 4145-4150 🔼 Scenario 2 — Deep Pullback then Rally 🔤 Reason: If short-term profit-taking occurs, price may revisit the stronger demand + FVG zone at 4110–4130. This aligns with a clean Order Block on H1 timeframe. 🔤 Conditions: Watch for a CHoCH → BOS bullish confirmation within 4110–4130. 🔤 Entry: 4110-4120 🔽 Scenario 3 — Structural Break (Bearish Correction) 🔤 Reason: If price closes below 4100, the bullish structure will be invalidated. This could trigger a deeper correction toward the 4040–4060 FVG zone. 🔤 Conditions: Wait for a confirmed break below 4100 and a failed retest of 4105–4110 before selling.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Michael_Gold_Insider
Is Gold XAUUSD due for a Retrace? VWAP & Volume Profile Plan🏆 Gold (XAUUSD) Market Update 🏆 Gold (XAUUSD) has rallied strongly and is now pushing into new highs 📈. In my view, price looks overextended — when applying the VWAP indicator, we can clearly see that price has stretched three deviations away from VWAP ⚖️. I’m also analyzing the Volume Profile to identify value areas that could serve as key support zones on any retracement 🔍. While my overall bias remains bullish, I’d like to see price return to equilibrium — roughly the 50% retrace of the recent price swing (on the 4-hour timeframe, measured from the order block low) 📊. Additionally, I’m observing a potential Three-Drive Pattern forming, which could hint at a short-term correction before any continuation higher 🔄. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by fxtraderanthony
Gold Near $4,100 PRZ – Time for a Reversal?Just like we discussed last week, Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) moved exactly as expected and hit its targets . Now, as we start the new week, Gold is continuing to form a New All-Time High(ATH) and is currently near a Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and the $4,100 round number . From an Elliott Wave perspective , it looks like Gold is completing wave 5, which could top out in this PRZ. We’re also seeing a Regular Divergence(RD-) between the two consecutive peaks , which suggests that Gold might start a correction soon. I expect Gold to begin a correction and at least drop down to the lower line of the ascending channel after breaking the Support zone($4,061 – $4,041) . Note: If Gold breaks the lower line of that ascending channel, we can expect further downside. Note: Also, keep in mind that Powell speaks tomorrow, which could influence Gold’s movement. As I mentioned, a bullish DXY outlook could also help push Gold lower. Second Target: $3,963 Stop Loss(SL): $4,153(Worst) Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by pejman_zwin
27
XRPUSDT (1H) chart, here’s a full technical read:XRPUSDT (1H) chart, here’s a full technical read: --- 🔍 Chart Observations Current price: around $2.50 The price is trading above an ascending trendline, showing bullish structure. It’s sitting on top of the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting ongoing bullish momentum. Two target zones are already drawn on my chart: The first target around $2.65 The second (main) target near $2.85 The support zone (red box below) is around $2.42–2.45 --- 🎯 Target Levels Based on my chart and price action: 1. Target 1: $2.65 → previous resistance area (first TP / partial take-profit zone) 2. Target 2: $2.83–2.85 → main target, aligns with strong resistance from earlier breakdown level --- 🛑 Stop-Loss Suggestion Below the rising trendline or the Ichimoku cloud: around $2.42 (A clean break below that invalidates the bullish setup.) --- ⚖ Trade Plan Summary Type Entry Stop Target 1 Target 2 Risk:Reward Long $2.50–2.52 $2.42 $2.65 $2.85 ~1:2.5–1:3 --- 📈 Summary: Trend = Bullish (supported by Kumo + trendline) Entry = $2.50–2.52 Target 1 = $2.65 Target 2 = $2.85 Stop = $2.42
Long
by RSI_Trading_point
4