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XAUUSDGold remains in a strong uptrend. Last Friday, the release of the non-farm payrolls figures, which were lower than expected, and a weaker dollar, pushed gold prices higher, reaching an all-time high of $3,600. Gold Direction: On Monday, as the gold price is currently facing no resistance, it appears to be trading very high. The RSI indicator is in the "overbought" zone, which could lead to short-term selling pressure. Main scenario: At the price zone of 3599$-3613$, if the gold price cannot break above the level of 3613$, there is a possibility of a short-term price drop, consider selling the red zone. (Very Risky Trade) 🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you. >>GooD Luck 😊 ❤️ Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by Serana2324
Gold Daily Chart Analysis –> Triangle BreakoutHello guys! Gold has finally broken out of a large triangle consolidation pattern that has been building for weeks. The price action respected both the top resistance line and the bottom support line multiple times, showing clear compression before the breakout. 🚀 Recently, the price broke above the top line of the triangle, confirming a bullish breakout. This kind of move usually signals the start of a continuation phase with momentum in the direction of the breakout. Based on the measured move from the triangle formation, the projected target sits around 3,591.60 USD. Price is currently trading near 3,476 USD, which still leaves room for further upside. 💡 Typically, after such a breakout, the market may retest the broken resistance line (now turned support) before resuming its move higher. (but the pullback is not certain now) Summary: Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Direction: Bullish Current Price: 3,476 USD Target: 3,591.60 USD As long as Gold holds above the broken triangle resistance, the bias remains bullish toward the projected target. Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by melikatrader94
18
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 08 - Sep 12]This week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD price increased sharply, from 3,436 USD/oz to 3,600 USD/oz and closed the week at 3,586 USD/oz. The reason for the sharp increase in gold price this week is due to the conflict between the Trump administration and the FED increasing when Mr. Trump announced the dismissal of FED Governor Lisa Cook. Previously, Mr. Trump repeatedly attacked FED Chairman Jerome Powell for not reducing interest rates and also threatened to fire Mr. Powell. In addition, the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for August dealt a further blow to the already weak job market, as employers added just 22,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts of 75,000. The dismal figure followed an equally worrying July report of 73,000 new jobs, while revisions reduced the number by 258,000 jobs from the previous two months. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The worsening jobs picture has reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at its meeting on September 16-17. Market participants now see a 0.25% rate cut as a near certainty, with some economists even suggesting the Fed could cut rates by as much as 0.5%. Next week, the US will release two important inflation figures, CPI and PPI. If the monthly core CPI increases by 0.5% or more, it may cause investors to reassess the probability of multiple rate cuts by the FED this year. This will support the USD, which will be detrimental to gold prices next week. On the contrary, if the core CPI increases by only 0.3%, it may cause the USD to fall, supporting gold prices to continue to rise next week. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, if the gold price maintains its uptrend, it will move up to the next resistance level determined at the Fibonacci extension Fibo261.8 level around the threshold of 3,680 USD/oz. In case of a correction, the support level should be noted around the hard resistance level as well as the dynamic resistance level at the area of ​​3,450 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,574 – 3,550USD Resistance: 3,600 – 3,613USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3681 - 3679⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3685 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3449 - 3451⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3445
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
H1 XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – Full Map (Sep 8–12, 2025)Hello traders, gold trades around 3585–3600. The H1 chart now gives us the full structural map: all supply levels stacked above price, and all demand levels layered below. This is the tactical roadmap for the week 👇 🔑 H1 Structural Supply Zones (Upside Resistance) Immediate Supply (3618–3628) H1 OB + bearish FVG Liquidity above Friday’s wick Fib 127% extension Primary Supply (3668–3678) Refined H4 supply Fib 161.8% extension Gap inefficiency Extended Supply (3725–3735) Next liquidity pocket H1 imbalance zone inside rally Target only if CPI fuels expansion Extreme Supply (3790–3805) HTF fib 200% extension Last clean H1 OB before weekly resistance cluster 🔑 H1 Structural Demand Zones (Downside Support) Immediate Demand (3562–3552) H1 OB + EMA21 Fib 61.8% retracement Gap-fill from breakout Primary Demand (3528–3515) OB + EMA50 support Unfilled FVG Fib 78.6% retracement Secondary Demand (3488–3475) Previous accumulation base Micro OB + gap imbalance Aligned with EMA100 Deep Demand (3445–3430) Institutional block Strong HTF liquidity pool Only tested on aggressive USD rally 📌 Scenarios Bullish Path 🟢 Hold Immediate Demand (3562–3552) → retest 3618–3628. Break above this → continuation toward 3668–3678. If macro stays supportive, 3725–3735 may unlock later. Bearish Path 🔴 Rejection at 3618–3628 sends gold back to 3562–3552. Losing this opens 3528–3515, then deeper 3488–3475. Strong CPI/PPI could flush into 3445–3430. ✅ Conclusion & Action Plan The full H1 map frames this week clearly: Supplies stacked: 3618–3628 → 3668–3678 → 3725–3735 → 3790–3805. Demands layered: 3562–3552 → 3528–3515 → 3488–3475 → 3445–3430. Between these zones is the battlefield — trade reactions, not guesses. Let PA confirm (BOS, rejection, slowdown) before execution. ✨ Which zone do you expect to trigger first — the Immediate Supply 3628 or the Immediate Demand 3552? Drop your view 👇,please 🚀🚀🚀and follow GoldFxMinds for precision weekly maps 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
H4 XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – September 8–12, 2025Hello traders, gold ended last week at 3585–3600, breaking into fresh highs. The H4 chart now sets the battlefield for this week: we refine the institutional zones into clear swing areas where liquidity and reactions are most likely. With PPI (Sep 10) and CPI (Sep 11) ahead, these zones will shape the flow 👇 🔸 H4 Structure & Trend Trend: Strong bullish → higher highs and higher lows continue. EMAs (5/21/50/100/200) → perfectly aligned, EMA21 supports short-term structure. RSI: Near 68, showing momentum strength but stretched into premium levels. Bias: Bullish, but with room for correction into lower demand zones. 🔑 H4 Structural Zones Upside Supply / Resistance 3615–3635 → First H4 supply, immediate test zone above 3600. 3665–3685 → Main H4 supply of the week, strong resistance cluster. 3735–3755 → Extended upside supply, only unlocked if CPI/PPI favor gold. Downside Demand / Support 3565–3545 → Nearest H4 demand, aligned with EMA21. 3525–3505 → Secondary demand, key support base if 3550 fails. 3465–3445 → Deeper H4 demand, liquidity zone and EMA100 alignment. 📌 Weekly Scenarios Bullish Path 🟢 If gold holds above 3565–3545, buyers can defend and attack higher levels. Break above 3615–3635 unlocks 3665–3685. Macro momentum (weak CPI/PPI) could drive extension into 3735–3755. Bearish Path 🔴 Rejection at 3615–3635 may drag gold back into 3565–3545. Losing this zone opens 3525–3505. If macro favors USD, deeper test into 3465–3445 becomes possible. ✅ Conclusion & Action Plan The H4 map with wide zones gives clarity for the week: 3565–3545 → key demand lifeline. 3615–3635 → immediate ceiling. 3665–3685 → decisive zone for continuation or reversal. Expect sideways early in the week, then breakout volatility around Wednesday’s PPI and Thursday’s CPI. ✨ Will bulls break 3615–3635 early, or do we dip into 3545–3525 first? Share your thoughts , 🚀🚀🚀and follow GoldFxMinds for weekly precision outlooks 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
Daily XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – September 8–12, 2025Hello traders, after gold closed last week near 3600, we step into a week dominated by U.S. inflation data (PPI on Sep 10, CPI + Unemployment Claims on Sep 11, UoM Sentiment on Sep 12). The daily chart is stretched bullish, but structure shows where buyers and sellers are likely to fight. Let’s break down the map 👇 🔸 Daily Structure & Trend Trend: Strong bullish continuation → daily candles are stacked above EMA5/21, showing institutional control. Momentum: RSI near 70, confirming overbought but still within expansion mode. Price action: Last week printed a powerful bullish engulfing → buyers firmly in control. Bias: Bullish overall, but sensitive to mid-week CPI/PPI. 🔑 Daily Structural Zones for the Week Upside Supply / Resistance 3620–3640 → First resistance area above 3600. Expect rejections or breakouts here. 3665–3700 → Main daily supply zone, aligning with HTF resistance. 3810–3860 → Extended bullish target zone if CPI/PPI data weakens USD. Downside Demand / Support 3550–3530 → Nearest daily support, aligned with EMA5. Bulls need to defend this zone to sustain momentum. 3485–3520 → Stronger daily demand zone, previous breakout base. 3375–3325 → Deep daily demand and structural defense for the bullish trend. 📌 Weekly Scenarios Bullish Path 🟢 If gold holds 3550+, buyers can attempt another push toward 3620–3640. A clean breakout opens the door for 3665–3700 and possibly 3810–3860 by end of week if CPI favors gold. Bearish Path 🔴 If sellers reject 3620–3640, price could correct back into 3550–3530. Losing 3550 exposes 3485–3520 as the deeper retracement zone. Strong USD data (hot CPI/PPI) could pull price even lower into 3375–3325. ✅ Conclusion & Action Plan The daily chart sets a clear battlefield for this week: 3550–3530 = immediate lifeline for bulls. 3620–3640 = first ceiling to break. 3665–3700 = main supply target for a bullish continuation. Failure at these levels opens the way for a corrective dip into 3485–3520. Expect a quiet start Monday–Tuesday, followed by heavy volatility from Wednesday’s PPI and Thursday’s CPI. Trade the reactions, not the guesses. ✨ Do you see gold climbing straight to 3700, or does it need a reset at 3550 first? Drop your thoughts , 🚀🚀🚀and follow GoldFxMinds for more weekly precision maps 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
Weekly XAUUSD Outlook – September 8–12, 2025Hello traders, this week we enter a heavy calendar for the USD with PPI (Sep 10), CPI + Unemployment Claims (Sep 11), and UoM Sentiment (Sep 12). Gold just printed new highs around 3600, breaking out of the summer consolidation, and the macro stage is set for another volatile ride. Let’s map the battlefield 👇 🔸 Macro Context Inflation data dominates the week. PPI/CPI will steer the USD narrative – hotter prints may strengthen USD and trigger corrections in gold, while softer data could fuel further upside. RSI on the weekly is at 70+, showing strong momentum but also an overextended condition that makes retracements likely. Geopolitical tensions + global demand for safe havens remain supportive for gold in the bigger picture. 🔸 Weekly Structure & Trend The weekly chart shows a clear bullish trend, with all EMAs (5, 21, 50, 100, 200) stacked in perfect alignment and price locked above them. Momentum candles are wide and aggressive → signaling institutional push. Bias: Bullish with corrective pullback risk. 🔑 Weekly Structural Zones 🔴Upside (Premium levels / Supply) 3669–3700 → First resistance cluster, near-term profit-taking zone. 3815–3860 → Next major supply block, aligning with Fibo extension from last leg. 3960–4000 → Psychological milestone + HTF supply above. 🟢Downside (Discount levels / Demand) 3525–3480 → First strong demand zone if CPI/PPI triggers retracement. Aligned with EMA5/21 support. 3375–3325 → Mid-range demand, previous breakout base. 3220–3180 → Deep correction zone, strong institutional support if major reversal occurs. 📌 Scenarios Bullish case: If USD data comes in softer, gold could extend above 3669–3700, targeting 3815+. Continuation requires holding 3525+ as support. Bearish case: Hot CPI/PPI + stronger USD could drag gold into a correction. A clean break below 3525 exposes 3375–3325 as the deeper retest zone. ✅ Conclusion & Action Plan This week is a macro-driven battlefield. The 3600 breakout confirms bullish control, but price is extended and reactive to inflation data. Watch 3525–3480 as the key defense line for bulls, and 3669–3700 as the immediate supply ceiling. Beyond that, momentum could unlock the 3815–3860 zone. Trade with confirmation around these institutional levels — this week is not about chasing, but about reacting with precision to data and structure. ✨ What do you think — will CPI unlock the 3700+ rally, or is gold due for a pullback into 3525? Drop your thoughts below 👇 and don’t forget to follow GoldFxMinds for more weekly and daily precision plans 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3593 and a gap below at 3562. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 3593 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3593 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3613 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3613 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3638 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3638 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3658 BEARISH TARGETS 3562 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3562 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3528 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3528 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3492 3470 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3470 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE 3438 3408 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
20
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, This is still a follow up update on our 4chart idea which is still valid and in play with the final gap still in range. Previously we had our Bullish target 3424 and finished off with ema5 cross and lock above this level opening 3499. This gap was filled last week just like we analysed followed with another cross and lock above 3499 opening 3561, which was also hit. We now finished off last week with a cross and lock above 3561 leaving 3615 open. Failure to test this final target will see lower Goldturns tested for support and bounce. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 3424 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3424 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3499 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3499 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3561 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3561 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2615 - BEARISH TARGETS 3347 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3347 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3277 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3277 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3234 3171 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3171 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE 3089 2996 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
2
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAPDaily Chart Update Range Break, Gap Confirmation & Next Target Achieved As anticipated in our previous update, price finally pushed through for a test of 3433, confirming the strength of the upside momentum we discussed. This test produced a candle body close gap open for 3564, which has now been successfully achieved just as projected. The close above 3564 further unlocks 3683 as the next long-term upside target. An EMA5 lock will serve as added confirmation for continuation toward this zone. Meanwhile, both 3564 and 3433 now transition into key support levels for this chart idea. Current Outlook 🔹 3564 Target Reached Our gap target has now been completed with a decisive candle body close above. This confirms bullish continuation and shifts focus to the next zone. 🔹 Next Objective – 3683 The successful 3564 break opens a fresh long-term target at 3683. EMA5 lock confirmation will strengthen the case for this move. Updated Key Levels 📉 Support – 3272 (pivotal floor) 📉 Short Term Supports – 3433 & 3564 📈 Resistance / Next Upside Objective – 3683 Thanks as always for your continued support, Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
4
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPWeekly Chart Update As anticipated, we got the 3482 gap target hit just as projected. Momentum carried further into the final channel top target at 3576, completing the upper channel move. Current Outlook 🔹 Gap Targets Achieved Both 3482 and 3576 have now been met. Price action delivered cleanly into these objectives, validating the prior bullish structure. 🔹 Candle Body Close Above 3576 The weekly body close above the channel top at 3576 has now opened the door to the larger 3659 long-term gap target. EMA5 would provide further confirmation if momentum sustains. 🔹 Channel Top Now Key Test We need to see 3576 - 3482 (channel top) hold as support to confirm the new range zone play. If it holds, the 3659 - 3732 range becomes the next bullish zone. Failure to provide support above 3482 - 3576 will mean the breakout is short-lived, with risk of a swift correction back down. 🔹 Range Support Levels 3576 and 3482 now act as layered support levels to keep the bullish case intact within this range. Updated Levels to Watch 📉 Support – 3482 & 3576 Key supports for this new range. Holding above 3576 strengthens the case for continuation toward 3659. A failure back below 3576 puts 3482 into play as the next defensive level. 📈 Resistance – 3659 The newly opened long-term gap target. This becomes the next upside objective if structure holds above 3576. Plan With 3482 and 3576 achieved, focus shifts to the 3659 gap. The bullish continuation depends on 3576 holding as support. If buyers defend it, the range extends upward into new territory. If not, expect a sharp corrective move back into the prior range. Thanks as always for your support, Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
4
BTC - Bullish continuation in the makingMarket Context BTC has recently broken out of a long-standing descending trendline, marking a significant shift in sentiment. This breakout signals the end of the controlled downtrend and sets the stage for a possible bullish continuation. At the same time, the chart shows a clear sweep of sell-side liquidity at the lows, which often serves as the fuel for a reversal. Trendline Breakout & Liquidity Sweep The bullish breakout of the old upper trendline is an important technical event. Combined with the earlier sell-side liquidity sweep, this suggests that downside liquidity has been cleared and that the path of least resistance could now be higher. Such a combination often marks the start of a new leg in the trend. Market Structure Shift Retest Following the breakout, price has pushed higher and printed a market structure shift (MSS). The current retest of this MSS zone will be key — if it holds, it provides the ideal spot for bulls to reload positions. This retest acts as confirmation that the breakout is valid, not just a short-lived deviation. Next Liquidity Grab & Upside Targets Above the current range sits a clear buy-side liquidity pool. The next logical move would be a grab of that liquidity, which could extend into a more aggressive bullish expansion toward higher levels. The structure suggests a stair-step move higher: liquidity grab, retest, and then continuation toward 115k–117k zones. Final Thoughts The sell-side liquidity sweep, trendline breakout, and market structure shift all point to a bullish shift in momentum. The key lies in how price reacts to the retest — hold it, and the next liquidity levels are likely to be taken. If this breakdown helped clarify the setup, a like is much appreciated — and let me know in the comments: are you playing the retest, or waiting for the liquidity grab above?
Long
by Louigi_24
53
GAMMA SQUEEZE: Why Gold Prices will hit 5 000 + USDBottom line If 1% of Treasuries ($278B) rotates into gold, $5,000/oz is not only plausible—it sits inside the low end of what flow math + today’s market microstructure can deliver. The path (and whether we print $8k+ spikes) hinges on how much of that flow shows up as short-dated calls—because that is what turns steady demand into a self-feeding gamma loop. ________________________________________ Executive summary • A 1% rotation out of U.S. Treasuries is roughly $278B of new gold demand (using SIFMA’s latest estimate that Treasuries outstanding ≈ $27.8T). • At today’s context (gold ~$3.53k/oz on Sep 2–5, 2025), $278B buys ~79.4M oz ≈ 2,471 tonnes; at $5k/oz it buys ~55.6M oz ≈ 1,729 tonnes. For scale, annual mine supply ≈ 3,661 t and total above-ground stocks ≈ 216,265 t (bars/coins+ETFs ≈ 48,634 t). • That flow is huge relative to both quarterly demand value (Q2’25 ≈ $132B) and typical daily trading turnover (~$290B/day across OTC, futures & ETFs). Even spread out, it materially tilts the tape; if concentrated and routed via options, it can produce dealer hedging feedback—i.e., a gamma squeeze. • Price targets (framework, not prophecy): o Conservative flow-only: +40–60% → $4,900–$5,600/oz o Base case (flow + some options reflexivity): +70–110% → $6,000–$7,500/oz o Squeeze/overshoot window (short-dated calls heavy): episodic spikes >$8,000/oz possible, but hard to sustain without continued flow. These bands come from scaling prior ETF-driven episodes (notably ~877 t ETF inflow in 2020 alongside a ~+36% price run) and sizing against current market depth, while layering a realistic options-hedging multiplier (details below). ________________________________________ 1) What a “gamma squeeze” in gold means (and why it can happen) Definition (in one line): When call buying concentrates near-dated, near-the-money strikes, dealers short gamma must buy futures as price rises (and sell if it falls) to keep neutral—this feedback accelerates upside (“gamma squeeze”). Why it’s plausible in gold right now: • The listed derivatives stack is large. As of Fri, Sep 5, 2025, CME’s daily bulletin shows COMEX gold options open interest ~0.80M contracts (calls ~0.49–0.69M; puts ~0.30–0.38M depending on line item), each on 100 oz—i.e., option OI notionally ties to ~2,400–2,800 t of gold. That is the powder keg a call-wave can act on. • Implied vol is moderate (GVZ ~18 for 30-day GLD options), so vega is “affordable,” gamma is punchy in the front end. • CME’s CVOL framework and open-interest tools confirm where strikes/expiries cluster; when OI stacks close to spot and near expiry, market-wide gamma becomes most sensitive. Back-of-envelope hedging math (illustrative): For a 30-day, at-the-money option with σ≈18%, the Black-Scholes gamma is about Γ≈ϕ(0)SσT≈0.399S⋅0.18⋅30/365\Gamma \approx \frac{\phi(0)}{S\sigma\sqrt{T}} \approx \frac{0.399}{S\cdot 0.18 \cdot \sqrt{30/365}}. At S=$3,500/oz, that’s ~0.0022 per $. A +1% move (+$35) bumps delta by ~0.077 per option. If just 150k near-ATM front-tenor calls are held by customers (dealers short gamma), hedge buying ≈ 150,000 × 100 oz × 0.077 ≈ 1.16M oz ≈ 36 t—per 1% price pop. That’s only a slice of total OI; a broader crowding raises this number. Compare with ~2,500 t/day of global turnover and you can see how concentrated dealer hedging can move price intraday. ________________________________________ 2) Sizing a 1% Treasury → gold rotation Treasury base: latest SIFMA comment put U.S. Treasuries outstanding ≈ $27.8T (Q1’25). 1% → $278B. Gold the rotation would buy: • At $3,500/oz: $278B → ~79.4M oz → ~2,471 t • At $5,000/oz: $278B → ~55.6M oz → ~1,729 t For scale: • Annual mine supply (2024): ~3,661 t; total supply (incl. recycling): ~4,974 t. A $278B buy ticket equals 47–67% of a year’s mine output (depending on price), or ~35–50% of total annual supply. • ETF precedent: In 2020, ~877 t net ETF inflow (~$48B) coincided with a ~+36% move from Jan→Aug 2020. Today’s $278B is ~5–6× that dollar size (and ~2–3× the tonnes, depending on price), hinting at large flow-driven upside even before any options reflexivity. • Turnover lens: WGC puts average daily trading across OTC/futures/ETFs at roughly $290B/day recently. A $278B program is ~one day’s global turnover. Pushed quickly (or skewed to options), that’s impactful; stretched over months, the price impact softens but still accumulates. Futures-only lens (capacity check): At $3,500/oz, one COMEX GC contract notionally = $350k (100 oz). $278B equals ~794k GC contracts. Current futures OI is ~0.49M contracts, so this exceeds all COMEX OI—you cannot push that much via futures quickly without major repricing. Even at $5,000/oz (~$500k/contract), it’s ~556k contracts, still comparable to the entire OI. ________________________________________ 3) Price-target framework (with the math that gets you there) Think of the price in layers: (A) base flow impact + (B) options-gamma reflexivity + (C) second-round effects (short-covering, momentum, FX, central banks). A) Flow-only impact (calibrated to 2020) • 2020 anchor: 877 t ETF inflow ↔ ~+36% price. Using a simple proportionality, 1,729–2,471 t (your $278B) maps to ~+71% to +101%. • Apply to spot ≈ $3,532/oz (early Sep 2025): o +71% → ~$6,050/oz o +101% → ~$7,100/oz Caveat: 2020 had unique macro tailwinds, so I treat this as upper-middle of base range. B) Options reflexivity / gamma squeeze overlay If 20–30% of the $278B rotation expresses via short-dated calls (common for levered macro expressions), dealer hedging can amplify flow impact: • From the OI math earlier, a mere 1% up-move can demand ~20–40 t of dealer hedge buying if near-ATM OI is thick. A 3–5% multi-day grind can easily cascade into 100–200 t of incremental buying from hedgers alone. That’s non-trivial vs. mine supply pace, and it pulls forward upside. • Result: add another +10–20% to the flow-only levels during a squeeze while it lasts. C) Second-round effects • Central banks: still persistent net buyers (>1,000 t/yr pace in recent years), tending to fade dips rather than rallies—a structural bid. • FX & rates: the GVZ ~18 regime means bursts of vol aren’t “expensive”; a weakening USD or policy shocks can tilt the target higher. Putting it together—scenario bands Scenario Assumptions Implied move Target Conservative $278B spread over 6–9 months, mostly physical/ETFs; limited options +40–60% $4,900–$5,600 Base case 50–70% to physical/ETFs, 30–50% to futures/options; moderate dealer short-gamma +70–110% $6,000–$7,500 Squeeze / overshoot Short-dated call concentration, dealers persistently short gamma; flow bunches in weeks +120–>150% (episodic) >$8,000 (brief spikes) $5,000 target is well within the conservative band if any meaningful fraction of the $278B pushes through quickly, even without a full-blown gamma loop. ________________________________________ 4) Why the market could mechanically gap higher • Market size vs. flow: Q2’25 total demand value = $132B. Dropping $278B into this ecosystem is a 2× quarterly shock. • Trading capacity: $278B ≈ one full day of global turnover; price impact is convex when the risk-absorption (dealers, miners, recyclers) cannot scale linearly day-by-day. • Derivatives gearing: With ~0.8M options contracts OI outstanding and futures OI ~0.49M, even a partial shift into calls forces hedge-buys on the way up, the hallmark of a squeeze. ________________________________________ 5) Key risks / reality checks • Time profile of the rotation matters. A slow, programmatic shift spreads impact; a front-loaded move can overshoot then mean-revert as gamma decays. • Elasticity is asymmetric. Jewelry/fabrication falls at high prices (demand destruction), recycling rises, both cushioning extremes. That moderates how long >$7k can persist without continued flow. • Volatility regimes change. If GVZ spikes to high-20s/30s, option premia jump, slowing new call demand; conversely, put demand can flip net gamma long for dealers, dampening squeezes. ________________________________________ References (most load-bearing) • Treasury base: SIFMA—Treasuries outstanding $27.8T (Feb 2025). • Gold supply & stocks: WGC—Above-ground stock 216,265 t (end-2024); bars/coins+ETFs 48,634 t; mine supply 2024 ≈ 3,661 t. • Trading turnover: WGC—gold trading ≈ $290B/day. • ETF precedent: WGC—2020 ETF inflows 877 t (~$47.9B) alongside major price rise. • Current price context: Reuters—record highs $3,532/oz set in early Sep 2025. ( • Options/hedging plumbing: CME daily bulletin (Sep 5, 2025) showing gold options OI ~0.8M contracts; CME CVOL/tools; Cboe GVZ ~18 as 30-day IV. ________________________________________
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
39
Bitcoin Maxis - Brace for Impact !!!🚨 Bitcoin Maxis, brace for Impact 🚨 There is clear, recent evidence that Tether is actively diversifying its reserves and investments by both selling some of its Bitcoin holdings and significantly increasing its exposure to gold, including direct investments in gold mining: 1. Selling Bitcoin and Buying Gold Tether has reported substantial profits from both Bitcoin and gold price appreciation. In 2024, the company booked. How does Tether generate its profits beyond Bitcoin and gold investments?" with \5 billion coming from unrealized appreciation of its gold and Bitcoin holdings. However, recent reports indicate Tether has been increasing its gold reserves while adjusting its Bitcoin treasury. For example, Tether disclosed holding $8.7 billion in gold bars in its Q2 2025 attestation report, and its gold-backed stablecoin (XAU₮) is backed by over 7.7 tons of physical gold as of April 2025. 2. Entering Gold Mining Tether is in active discussions to invest in gold mining, aiming to channel its crypto profits into the metals market. CEO Paolo Ardoino has publicly referred to gold as “natural Bitcoin” and expressed a strong affinity for gold as a foundational asset. The company is exploring opportunities across the entire gold supply chain, including mining, refining, and trading. Tether has already invested over $200 million in Elemental Altus Royalties, a Canadian firm that buys future revenue streams from gold mines, giving Tether exposure to multiple mines with less operational risk. 3. Strategic Shift Tether’s move into gold and gold mining is part of a broader diversification strategy, which also includes investments in AI, Bitcoin mining, and other sectors. The company’s leadership has repeatedly emphasized gold’s role as a hedge and a complement to Bitcoin. In summary, Tether is not only selling some Bitcoin and buying gold but is also directly entering the gold mining sector as part of its diversification and profit deployment strategy. Sources: www.zerohedge.com www.coindesk.com www.fxleaders.com bitcoinethereumnews.com BITSTAMP:BTCUSD NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:MSTR TVC:DXY TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER VANTAGE:SP500 FX:EURUSD COINBASE:USDTUSD AMEX:NUGT AMEX:GDX
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by CassianDrake
2
September 5th Gold Trend Analysis and Trading Strategy: Key Focus: US Non-Farm Payroll Data I. Core Fundamental Analysis Bullish Factors: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Market expectations of the Fed starting rate cuts at its mid-month meeting are the core driver of gold's consecutive record highs. The prospect of an accommodative monetary policy reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, providing fundamental support for gold prices. Geopolitical Risk: Ongoing geopolitical tensions have enhanced gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset. Bearish/Risk Factors: Technical Profit-Taking: After gold prices reached a record high for seven consecutive days, they accumulated significant short-term profit-taking. Thursday's (September 4th) pullback of over 1% suggests that bulls are partially closing their positions and locking in profits, which is the primary pressure for the price correction. Bond Market Sell-off: Global bond markets experienced a sell-off, sending interest rates (yields) soaring. This typically signals market concerns about inflation or the economic outlook, potentially attracting some funds from non-interest-bearing gold to interest-bearing assets. This diverges from gold's upward trend and presents a significant risk signal. Non-farm Payroll Data Preview: Today's release of the US August non-farm payroll data is the biggest variable of the day. The data's performance will directly impact expectations of a Fed rate cut: Strong data → Cooling rate cut expectations → Bullish for the US dollar, bearish for gold. Weak data → increased expectations of rate cuts → bad for the dollar, good for gold. II. Key Technical Analysis Current Trend: The long-term uptrend remains intact, but a short-term correction from the highs is indicated. The daily line closed with a long upper shadow, indicating heavy selling pressure from above. Key Resistance Levels: Primary Resistance: $3555-3560/oz (hourly resistance, yesterday's US rebound high, today's bull-bear watershed) Strong Resistance: $3570-3580/oz (historical high) Key Support Levels: Initial Support: $3530-3520/oz (4-hour mid-line congestion zone, yesterday's Asia-Europe consolidation platform) Important Support: $3510-3508/oz (Thursday's correction low, strong support from the 5-day moving average on the daily chart and a psychological barrier) Ultimate Support: $3490-3480/oz (deep correction target) III. Comprehensive Trading Strategy Core Principle: Exercise caution and trade within a range before data releases; follow the trend after data releases. 1. Pre-Data Strategy (Before the Non-Farm Payrolls Data Release): Range-Bound Trading Sell on Rebounds: If gold prices rebound to the $3555-3565 area and show signs of stagflation (such as a bearish close with a long upper shadow on the hourly chart), try a small short position with a stop-loss above $3570, targeting $3540-3530. Buy on Pullbacks: If gold prices pull back to the $3520-3530 support area and show signs of stabilization (such as a hammer candlestick or bullish engulfing candlestick), try a small long position with a stop-loss below $3515, targeting $3545-3555. 2. Post-Data Strategy (After the Non-Farm Payrolls Data Release): Trade on Breakouts Breakout Scenario: If weak data leads to a strong breakout and consolidation of gold prices above $3560, follow up with a long position, targeting $3570-3580. Breakout Scenario: If strong data causes gold prices to effectively break below the $3,510 support level, short positions can be followed, targeting the $3,500-3,490 area. 3. Conservative Strategy: Primarily wait and see, waiting for the release of the non-farm payroll data to clarify the market direction before entering the market. Avoid the risk of sharp fluctuations and spread widening immediately after the data release. IV. Risk Warning and Position Management Major Risk Event: All operations today must prioritize the non-farm payroll data. The data results are unpredictable and could trigger sharp market fluctuations. Strict Stop-Loss: Regardless of the strategy chosen, a stop-loss must be set to prevent significant losses due to data trends that go against expectations. Light position operation: Before the data, all transactions should be kept light, and sufficient funds should be reserved to cope with the trend market after the data. Summary: Gold's medium- to long-term bullish logic remains unchanged, but it faces short-term technical correction pressure. The key to successful trading today lies in its response to the non-farm payroll data. It is recommended to buy low and sell high with a range-bound approach in the Asian and European sessions, and enter and exit quickly.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FX_Gold_Mastermind
XAUUSD: The Correction Phase BeginsHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup. Market Analysis From a broader perspective, the price of Gold has been in a strong uptrend since breaking out of a prior Downward Channel. This entire bullish phase has been developing within the confines of a large broadening wedge, a pattern that indicates expanding volatility as price makes higher highs and higher lows. Currently, the price is at a critical point, testing the Broadening Resistance Line at the very top of this wedge. This test comes after a very strong and steep upward impulse, which often suggests that a trend might be overextended and due for a correction. My Scenario & Strategy My scenario is a tactical short, based on the idea that this strong rally is due for a healthy pullback. Trends rarely move in a straight line forever, and the resistance line of this multi-week wedge is a high-probability area for sellers to step in. I'm looking for the price to make one final, small push higher and then show a clear sign of rejection. The primary target for this corrective fall is 3500 points. As you noted, this is an intermediate target, not the major Support 1, making it a logical first objective for a pullback. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ratner
5
Gold will continue to grow inside upward channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The market context for Gold has been firmly bullish since the price broke out of its prior consolidation range, a move that originated from the deep buyer zone. This breakout shifted the market structure, initiating a new impulsive phase that has since been neatly contained within a well-defined upward channel. The price action for XAU has been respecting the boundaries of this channel, creating a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Currently, after being rejected from the channel's upper resistance line, the asset is undergoing a healthy correction movement. This pull-back is guiding the price back towards a significant confluence of support, where the ascending support line of the channel converges with the horizontal support zone near the 3485 current support level. The primary working hypothesis is a long scenario, based on the expectation that buyers will defend this area and maintain the integrity of the uptrend. A confirmed bounce from this dynamic support would signal the end of the correction and the resumption of the primary bullish trend. Therefore, the TP is logically placed at 3610 points, representing a new structural high and a measured objective for the next impulsive wave. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by LegionQ8
32