Get started

Metals

Gold Market Trend Analysis Report for August 29: I. Core Views After a strong breakout above the key psychological level of $3,400, gold maintains a bullish short-term technical outlook. However, today coincides with a critical time window, and the market is focused on the US PCE inflation data, so we need to be vigilant about the risk of a market reversal at a high level. We recommend primarily buying on pullbacks, with caution when chasing higher prices. II. News Analysis The continued weakening of the US dollar provides key momentum: The US dollar index has fallen for three consecutive trading days, dropping to 97.85. The weakening dollar has significantly increased the appeal of dollar-denominated gold, particularly stimulating demand from international buyers, becoming the most direct driver of gold's price increases. Multiple factors contribute: Potential market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence and an influx of safe-haven funds have formed the macroeconomic backdrop for this round of gold price increases, contributing to a positive market sentiment. Silver also strengthened: Silver prices climbed to a high of more than one month, confirming the overall strong atmosphere of the precious metals sector and enhancing the reliability of gold's rise. Today's Focus: US PCE Data: The upcoming release of the US Core PCE Price Index for July is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. Its results will significantly impact market expectations of the Fed's monetary policy path, potentially triggering significant market volatility. This represents the greatest uncertainty and risk event today. III. Technical Analysis Daily Chart Level: Strong Pattern: The daily chart closed with a large bullish candlestick, breaking through the 3,400 level and reaching a five-week high, indicating strong bullish momentum. Potential Risks: Today marks the eighth trading day since the recent rise from the low of $3,311, representing a significant turning point. Be wary of the possibility of a price correction or reversal at high levels. Operational thinking: The most ideal opportunity to go long is not to chase high prices, but to wait for prices to retrace and correct before buying in order to control risks. Hourly Chart Level: Bullish Pattern: The 1-hour moving average system remains in a bullish formation with a golden cross, indicating a short-term bullish trend. Key Support and Resistance: Near-term support: $3,405 (the intraday bull-bear watershed). Strong support: $3,400. As long as the price holds above this level, the short-term strong trend will persist. Upward resistance: Near $3,430, with further resistance expected towards the $3,440 area. IV. Trading Strategy Recommendations Overall strategy: Focus on buying on pullbacks, supplemented by shorting on rebounds. Long strategy: If gold prices stabilize in the $3,405-3,395 support area, consider placing long positions in batches, with a stop-loss below $3,385 and a target of $3,430-3,440. Short strategy: If gold prices first touch the $3,430-3,440 resistance area and show clear signs of resistance (such as a long upper shadow and a bearish candlestick pattern), try shorting with a small position, entering and exiting quickly. Risk Warning: Focus on the European trading session: If gold prices maintain their strength during the European trading session, there is still upward momentum in the US market. Pay close attention to the impact of PCE data: market volatility will intensify before and after the data is released. Investors should manage their positions or temporarily exit the market and wait and see to avoid uncertainty risks.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FX_Gold_Mastermind
SILVER Set To Fall! SELL! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on SILVER and concluded the following: The market is trading on 39.719 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 39.114 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TRADENATION:XAGUSDShort
by AnabelSignals
10
Gold will start to decline and then exit from wedgeHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The market dynamic for XAUUSD has seen a significant evolution, transitioning from a corrective falling wedge into a new bullish phase after a powerful breakout from the lows. This upward trend has since matured and taken the shape of a large upward wedge, a pattern that has been guiding the price higher through a series of rebounds and corrections. This formation, while bullish in the short term, often signals potential trend exhaustion as it approaches its apex. Currently, the price action for XAU is at a critical juncture, pushing up against the upper resistance line of this wedge. The primary working hypothesis is a short scenario, which is predicated on the common bearish resolution of a rising wedge pattern. It is anticipated that the asset will be rejected from this resistance line, signalling that buying momentum is waning. A confirmed failure at this peak would likely trigger a sharp reversal, with enough selling pressure to cause a breakdown below the wedge's ascending support line and the current support level of 3390. This structural failure would validate the bearish thesis and initiate a new downward leg. Therefore, the TP is logically set at 3370 points, representing a prudent first objective for the price to achieve following the anticipated breakdown of the wedge structure. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by LegionQ8
13
XAU/USD Technical Outlook – Short-Term Dip, Bigger Upside AheadHello guys. It is what I see: We can see that Gold is currently trading around $3,404, consolidating after a strong bullish move inside a rising wedge formation. The wedge has now broken out to the upside, and price action is showing a potential head and shoulders pattern near the top. Head and Shoulders: The left shoulder, head, and right shoulder are clearly visible, and the neckline is sitting around the $3,399–$3,400 zone. If price dips and retests this neckline, we could see a short-term bearish move toward the target of the head and shoulders around $3,399. This is a healthy pullback after the recent rally. Bigger Picture (Wedge): Even though we might see a short-term correction, the larger wedge breakout suggests continuation to the upside. The measured target of the wedge points toward $3,430, which lines up as the next resistance level.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by melikatrader94
9
GOLD 29/08: Monthly Candle Closing. DON'T BUY FOMOGold is at a decisive point: will the market continue its bullish run, or is it setting up a deeper correction? Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Elliott Wave Theory, we can map out clear scenarios without falling into FOMO traps. 🔎 Market Structure (SMC + Elliott) Elliott Wave: The structure has completed waves III – IV – V, with wave V tapping into the higher trendline (D1). This suggests a potential exhaustion phase. SMC: Multiple BMS (Break of Market Structure) signals → liquidity manipulation by institutions. EQH (Equal Highs) and EQL (Equal Lows) → liquidity pools ready to be swept. Key Demand Zones identified: 3398 – 3396 (EQH + BMS support) 3372 – 3370 (deep liquidity sweep / EQL) The D1 trendline remains the main dynamic resistance. 📌 Trading Plan Scenario 1 – Short-term Sell (Counter-trend): Sell Zone: 3319 – 3321 Stop Loss: 3327 Target: Demand Zone 3398 – 3396 Scenario 2 – Buy at Demand Zone 1 (Main Setup): Buy Zone: 3398 – 3396 Stop Loss: 3390 Target: 3410 – 3415 (D1 trendline retest) Scenario 3 – Buy at Demand Zone 2 (Deeper Sweep): Buy Zone: 3372 – 3370 Stop Loss: 3365 Target: 3400 – 3410 ✅ Best Risk-Reward setup, aligned with liquidity grab + Elliott retracement. ✅ Conclusion The bigger picture still supports a bullish bias, but liquidity sweeps may occur before continuation. Avoid chasing the market. Wait for confirmation at demand zones for optimal entries. Main focus: Buy from 3398–3396 or 3372–3370, instead of entering impulsively at highs.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Linda_OneShotTrader
GOLD → Retest 3400 before the news. Will there be a rally?FX:XAUUSD is pulling back slightly after hitting a new high of 3423. The trend is bullish, and on the D1 chart we see a breakout of a symmetrical triangle, which generally hints at bullish potential. Gold is correcting after rising to $3423 in anticipation of US PCE inflation data. Key factors: Doubts about the Fed's independence are limiting the USD's strengthening. Soft Fed rhetoric: Board member Waller supported a rate cut in September and further easing. The probability of a September rate cut is estimated at 87%. Today's news: Core PCE inflation data (forecast: 2.6% y/y). If below forecast → increased expectations for policy easing → support for gold If above forecast → dollar strength → gold correction Short-term gold dynamics depend on inflation data and its impact on Fed rate expectations Support levels: 3405, 3394, 3386.5 Resistance levels: 3415, 3423, 3433 As part of the correction, the price may test liquidity zones and enter a consolidation phase ahead of the news. However, the market is one step away from distribution (exit from a symmetrical triangle). If the bulls keep the price above 3400 as part of the correction, we will have a good chance to catch the rally... Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
20
OPEN WEEK WILL DUMP TO 3410 OR PUMP TO 3500 ?The chart shows that gold is currently in a strong bullish trend. Price has broken above a significant supply zone, which now acts as a demand zone. The recent "BOS" (Break of Structure) confirms this bullish momentum. Trading Strategy 1. Bullish Scenario (Primary): Entry: Look for a pullback to the key demand zone around the 3,410–3,425 level. This is a high-probability area for a bounce. Target: The main target for this bullish move is the new week high at 3,500 and potentially extending to 3,520. Stop Loss: Place your stop loss below the low of the demand zone to protect your capital. 2. Bearish Scenario (Secondary): Confirmation: A break below the demand zone at 3,410 would invalidate the primary bullish plan. Target: If this happens, price could retrace back to the D1 Trendline around the 3,350 level. 3. Key Levels to Watch: Support: 3,410 - 3,425: Major demand zone. 3,380: A minor support level. 3,350: The D1 Trendline. Resistance: 3,447: Current high. 3,500: Key psychological and structural resistance level. 3,520: Final target. Important Notes Risk Management: Always use a proper stop loss and never risk more than 1-2% of your capital on a single trade. Confirmation: Wait for bullish price action signals like an engulfing candle, pin bar, or double bottom on a lower timeframe before entering a long position. Market News: Be aware of any high-impact news events that could affect the price of gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Linda_OneShotTrader
XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis: Weekly Forecast# XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis: Advanced Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy & Weekly Forecast Current Price: $3,448.12 (As of August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) Asset Class: XAUUSD / Gold Spot Analysis Date: August 30, 2025 --- Executive Summary Gold (XAUUSD) continues its extraordinary bull market trajectory, currently trading at $3,448.12 per ounce, representing a phenomenal 37.77% year-over-year gain. Recent market data confirms gold rose to $3,448.50 on August 29, 2025, posting a daily gain of 0.91% and a substantial 5.31% monthly advance. Our comprehensive technical analysis reveals the precious metal is positioned within a critical resistance zone near $3,390-3,400, forming a pennant/ascending triangle pattern with declining volume suggesting near-term indecision. Analytical forecasts project potential targets of $3,597.89 by end-2025, supported by ongoing monetary accommodation and geopolitical uncertainties. --- Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Analysis Gold's price action demonstrates a complex five-wave impulse structure within a Grand Super Cycle: Primary Count: Currently in Wave 5 of (5) of - final extension phase Wave Structure: Completing terminal impulse toward $3,800-4,000 zone Corrective Potential: Wave 4 completion suggests limited downside to $3,200-3,150 Extended Projection: Long-term targets reach $4,200-4,500 by 2026-2027 Invalidation Level: Break below $3,150 would negate primary bullish count Fibonacci Relationships: Current wave exhibits 1.618 extension characteristics Wyckoff Market Structure Analysis Gold exhibits Wyckoff Distribution Phase characteristics at current elevated levels: Phase: Early Distribution with testing of supply levels Volume Analysis: Declining volume on recent advances indicates weakening demand Price Action: Narrowing ranges with repeated tests of $3,400 resistance Composite Operator Activity: Institutional profit-taking evident above $3,350 Market Character: Building selling pressure against strong underlying demand Accumulation Zones: $3,150-3,250 represents potential future re-accumulation W.D. Gann Comprehensive Analysis Square of 9 Analysis: - Current price $3,448.12 positioned at critical 180-degree Gann resistance - Next major Gann square: $3,721 (360-degree completion from cycle low) - Time and price convergence: September 18-25, 2025 (Autumn Equinox influence) - Cardinal Gann levels: $3,481, $3,600, $3,721 (geometric progressions) Angle Theory Application: - 1x1 Rising Angle Support: $3,250-3,300 (primary trend support) - 2x1 Accelerated Angle: $3,500-3,550 (next resistance cluster) - 1x2 Support Angle: $3,000-3,100 (major correction boundary) - 1x4 Long-term Support: $2,800-2,900 (secular bull market support) Time Cycle Analysis: - 120-day cycle completion due: Mid-September 2025 - Seasonal Gann Pattern: September-October historically strong for gold - Major time window: October 12-22, 2025 (critical turning point) - Lunar cycles: New moon September 15 coincides with technical resistance Price Forecasting & Squaring of Price and Time: - Immediate resistance: $3,480-3,520 - Primary target: $3,650-3,750 - Extended projection: $3,850-4,000 - Time harmony suggests breakthrough after October equinox Ranges in Harmony: - Current range: $3,350-3,480 (compression phase) - Next expansion: $3,200-3,800 (major trading range) - Long-term channel: $2,500-4,500 (multi-year projection) --- Japanese Candlestick & Harmonic Pattern Analysis Recent Candlestick Formations (Daily Chart) Doji Patterns: August 28-30 showing indecision at resistance Long Upper Shadows: Repeated rejection at $3,450-3,480 levels Bullish Marubozu: August 26 confirming strong buying interest Volume Divergence: Declining volume on recent rally attempts Evening Star Formation: Potential three-candle reversal pattern developing Harmonic Pattern Recognition Potential Bat Pattern: Completion zone $3,380-3,420 (current area) ABCD Pattern: Active correction targeting $3,200-3,250 Gartley Formation: Long-term bullish pattern projecting $4,200+ Fibonacci Confluence: Multiple retracement levels converging at $3,250 Advanced Harmonic Analysis Three Drives Pattern: Completing third drive toward $3,500-3,600 Butterfly Pattern: Extreme extension suggesting $3,150-3,200 correction Cypher Pattern: Potential reversal zone at $3,600-3,700 Deep Crab Setup: Long-term bullish projection to $4,500-5,000 Bull Trap vs Bear Trap Analysis Current Setup Assessment: Bull Trap Probability: 65% - False breakout above $3,450 likely Bear Trap Potential: 35% - Shallow correction creating buying opportunity Key Levels: Break above $3,520 negates trap scenario Volume Confirmation: Required for sustainable breakout above resistance --- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Current Cloud Structure (Daily Chart) Price Position: Above Kumo cloud but approaching resistance Tenkan-sen (9-period): $3,421 (short-term dynamic resistance) Kijun-sen (26-period): $3,367 (medium-term trend support) Senkou Span A: $3,394 (leading span A - immediate support) Senkou Span B: $3,289 (leading span B - key cloud support) Chikou Span: Approaching resistance at historical price levels Future Kumo Analysis (26 periods ahead): - Thinning cloud structure indicating potential volatility increase - Future resistance zone: $3,500-3,600 (forward-looking cloud top) - Kumo twist anticipated: Late September 2025 Ichimoku Trading Signals TK Cross: Tenkan above Kijun but flattening (weakening signal) Price vs Cloud: Above cloud with momentum slowing Chikou Span: Potential resistance at $3,450 historical level Cloud Breakout: Consolidating above cloud with mixed signals --- Technical Indicators Deep Dive RSI (Relative Strength Index) Multi-Timeframe Daily RSI: 58.4 (neutral zone, down from recent highs) Weekly RSI: 67.8 (approaching overbought but not extreme) 4H RSI: 52.1 (reset from overbought levels) RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence forming on daily timeframe RSI Support: 50 level crucial for maintaining bullish momentum Bollinger Bands Analysis Current Position: Price at upper band ($3,450 level) Band Width: Contracting after recent expansion (consolidation) %B Indicator: 0.89 (near upper extreme but not at 1.0) Squeeze Formation: Bollinger Band squeeze developing for next move VWAP Analysis (Volume Weighted Average Price) Daily VWAP: $3,398 (key support level) Weekly VWAP: $3,324 (intermediate support zone) Monthly VWAP: $3,187 (major trend support) Volume Profile: Highest volume acceptance at $3,250-3,350 zone Moving Average Structure 10 EMA: $3,412 (immediate dynamic support) 20 EMA: $3,384 (short-term trend support) 50 SMA: $3,298 (intermediate support) 100 SMA: $3,156 (key trend support) 200 SMA: $2,934 (major secular support) Moving Average Signals: - Perfect bullish alignment maintained across all timeframes - Golden Cross pattern firmly established - Price trading above all major moving averages --- Support & Resistance Analysis Primary Resistance Levels 1. R1: $3,480-3,520 (immediate Gann and technical resistance) 2. R2: $3,600-3,650 (major harmonic completion zone) 3. R3: $3,750-3,800 (Elliott Wave 5 target area) 4. R4: $3,900-4,000 (psychological and long-term projection) 5. R5: $4,200-4,500 (Extended Elliott Wave and Gann targets) Primary Support Levels 1. S1: $3,367 (Kijun-sen and recent swing support) 2. S2: $3,250-3,300 (major accumulation and VWAP zone) 3. S3: $3,150-3,200 (Elliott Wave 4 and harmonic support) 4. S4: $3,000-3,100 (psychological and 1x2 Gann angle) 5. S5: $2,800-2,900 (major secular bull market support) Volume-Based Support/Resistance High Volume Node: $3,250-3,350 (institutional accumulation) Low Volume Gap: $3,450-3,550 (potential rapid movement zone) Volume Resistance: $3,600+ (historical distribution levels) POC (Point of Control): $3,285 (maximum volume acceptance) --- Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Framework Scalping Strategy (5M & 15M Charts) 5-Minute Timeframe Methodology: Entry Signals: Pullbacks to 20 EMA with RSI <30 in uptrend Profit Targets: $8-15 per ounce per scalping trade Stop Loss: $5-8 maximum risk per position Volume Filter: Above-average volume required for entries Time Windows: Asian session 1:00-5:00 AM, NY session 8:00-11:00 AM EST 15-Minute Scalping Framework: Range Trading: Current range $3,420-3,470 Breakout Strategy: Volume confirmation above $3,470 for continuation Mean Reversion: Fade moves beyond 2.5 standard deviations from VWAP Risk Management: Maximum 4 positions per session, 1:2 R:R minimum Intraday Trading Strategies (30M, 1H, 4H) 30-Minute Chart Approach: Trend Following: Long above EMA cluster ($3,400-3,410) Pattern Trading: Triangle and flag formations near resistance Target Methodology: Initial $3,480, extended $3,520-3,550 Risk Parameters: $15-25 stops, 2:1 reward-to-risk minimum 1-Hour Chart Strategy: Momentum Trading: MACD bullish crossovers with histogram expansion Support Bounces: Long entries from $3,350-3,400 zone Resistance Fading: Short opportunities above $3,470 without volume Session Management: Focus on London AM and NY session overlap 4-Hour Swing Framework: Cloud Strategy: Long on successful Ichimoku cloud support tests Elliott Wave: Prepare for Wave 5 completion and subsequent correction Fibonacci Trading: Use 38.2% and 50% retracements for entries Hold Duration: 3-10 days for swing positions Swing Trading Strategy (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) Daily Chart Methodology: Breakout Strategy: Long on sustained breaks above $3,520 with volume Correction Trading: Accumulate on pullbacks to $3,250-3,350 Target Progression: $3,650 → $3,800 → $4,000 sequential targets Position Management: Scale in on multiple timeframe confirmations Weekly Chart Analysis: Primary Trend: Strongly bullish above $3,000 weekly support Swing Targets: $3,800-4,000 zone for major profit-taking Risk Management: Weekly closes below $3,150 signal trend change Monthly Chart Perspective: Secular Trend: Multi-decade bull market acceleration phase Long-term Targets: $5,000-6,000 by 2027-2030 Major Support: $2,500-2,800 (unlikely to test in current cycle) --- Day-by-Day Trading Plan: September 2-6, 2025 Monday, September 2, 2025 (Labor Day - Reduced Liquidity) Market Conditions: Thin trading expected, potential for gap moves Technical Setup: Resistance: $3,470, $3,500, $3,530 Support: $3,400, $3,350, $3,300 Expected Range: $3,380-3,480 Trading Strategy: Reduced Position Sizes: Holiday conditions warrant caution Gap Trading: Monitor overnight developments for gap opportunities Range Strategy: Buy support, sell resistance until breakout Risk Management: Tighter stops due to thin liquidity Tuesday, September 3, 2025 Market Outlook: Full participation returns, volatility potential increases Key Events & Strategy: Economic Calendar: US manufacturing data and job openings Technical Focus: $3,450-3,470 resistance cluster test Fed Watch: Monitor Federal Reserve officials' speeches Entry Strategy: Long $3,380-3,420 targeting $3,500+ Risk Considerations: - Dollar strength potential from strong economic data - Geopolitical developments affecting safe-haven demand - Interest rate expectations impact on gold Wednesday, September 4, 2025 Market Outlook: Mid-week momentum with focus on Fed policy signals Strategic Framework: Pattern Recognition: Triangle/pennant completion monitoring Volume Analysis: Institutional participation crucial for breakout Support Defense: $3,350-3,400 zone strength critical Breakout Preparation: Position for move above $3,480 Trading Approach: Momentum Strategy: Follow confirmed breakouts with volume Contrarian Setup: Fade false breakouts without participation News Trading: ADP employment data potential market mover Thursday, September 5, 2025 Market Outlook: Pre-NFP positioning and weekly close dynamics Key Considerations: NFP Preparation: Traders positioning ahead of Friday's data Technical Levels: $3,500-3,550 next major resistance zone Jobless Claims: Weekly data could influence gold sentiment Fed Policy: Continued monitoring of rate cut expectations Execution Strategy: Trend Continuation: Above $3,450 favors $3,550 target Profit Scaling: Take profits at $3,500, $3,550, $3,600 levels Risk Adjustment: Prepare for NFP volatility Friday, September 6, 2025 Market Outlook: NFP release and weekly close significance Critical Session Strategy: NFP Impact: Non-farm payrolls major market catalyst Weekly Close: Above $3,420 maintains bullish structure Profit Protection: Secure gains from successful trades Weekend Risk: Geopolitical and news flow considerations Trading Framework: Pre-NFP: Light positioning due to event risk Post-NFP: React to data with appropriate position sizing Weekly Levels: Close above $3,450 very bullish, below $3,350 concerning --- Macroeconomic & Policy Analysis Federal Reserve Policy Impact The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance remains crucial for gold's trajectory. Current fed funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% with markets anticipating rate cuts later in 2025 provides a supportive backdrop for gold. Recent Fed meetings show officials holding rates steady while markets expect 2-3 potential cuts before year-end, representing a shift from earlier expectations. Interest Rate Environment Gold has demonstrated remarkable resilience despite restrictive monetary policy, with COMEX gold futures open interest rising 8% following recent Fed meetings. Low gold lease rates at 0.33% indicate weak lending demand, supporting underlying physical demand for the precious metal. Inflation Dynamics & Currency Debasement The relationship between Federal Reserve policies and gold prices has intensified, with the precious metal serving as an inflation hedge and currency debasement protection. Rising real yields remain a headwind, but ongoing monetary accommodation expectations support higher gold prices. Geopolitical Risk Factors 1. Trade Policy Uncertainty: Ongoing tensions affecting global growth 2. Currency Wars: Competitive devaluations supporting gold demand 3. Debt Ceiling Issues: US fiscal concerns driving safe-haven flows 4. Middle East Tensions: Regional conflicts supporting risk premiums 5. China-US Relations: Trade disputes affecting global stability --- Central Bank Gold Demand & ETF Flows Central Bank Activity Net Purchases: Continued central bank accumulation, particularly from emerging markets Diversification Drive: Move away from dollar-denominated reserves Strategic Reserves: Gold viewed as portfolio diversification tool Policy Support: Central bank demand providing price floor ETF Flow Analysis GLD Holdings: Monitoring largest gold ETF for institutional sentiment Retail Demand: Continued interest in gold-backed securities Flow Patterns: Consistent inflows supporting underlying demand Market Structure: ETF demand creating physical market tightness --- Bull Trap vs Bear Trap Assessment Current Market Structure Analysis Bull Trap Scenario (65% Probability): Characteristics: False breakout above $3,470-3,500 resistance Volume Profile: Declining volume on advance indicating weak breakout Technical Setup: RSI divergence and overextended conditions Price Target: Correction to $3,200-3,250 support zone Time Frame: 2-4 weeks for trap completion Bear Trap Scenario (35% Probability): Characteristics: Shallow decline to $3,350-3,300 creating buying opportunity Volume Confirmation: High volume on support test indicating accumulation Technical Reversal: Hammer or doji formation at key support levels Breakout Target: $3,600-3,800 following trap completion Catalyst Required: Fed dovish pivot or geopolitical escalation Trap Identification Signals Bull Trap Confirmation: - Break above $3,480 on low volume - Immediate reversal within 24-48 hours - High volume selling on decline - RSI failure at resistance level Bear Trap Confirmation: - Sharp decline to $3,300-3,350 on moderate volume - Quick reversal with volume expansion - Gap up following support test - Institutional buying evidence --- Risk Management Comprehensive Framework Position Sizing Methodology Scalping Trades: 0.5-1% account risk per trade Intraday Positions: 1-2% maximum account risk Swing Positions: 2-3% account risk per established position Maximum Exposure: 6-8% total gold-related risk allocation Stop-Loss Implementation Scalping: $5-10 per ounce maximum Intraday: $15-30 per ounce based on volatility Swing Trading: Below key support levels ($3,250 for current longs) Technical Stops: Elliott Wave and pattern invalidation levels Profit-Taking Strategy Scaling Approach: 25% at first target, 50% at second, hold 25% Trailing Stops: Implement after 2:1 favorable movement Time-Based Exits: Close before major Fed announcements Pattern-Based: Honor harmonic and Elliott Wave completion zones --- Weekly Outlook Probability Matrix Bullish Scenario (Probability: 45%) Primary Catalysts: - Federal Reserve dovish policy signals - Geopolitical tensions escalation - Technical breakout above $3,520 with volume - Weaker US economic data supporting rate cut expectations Price Objectives: - Initial: $3,550-3,650 - Extended: $3,750-3,800 - Optimistic: $4,000+ Neutral/Consolidation Scenario (Probability: 35%) Characteristics: - Range-bound trading $3,300-3,500 - Mixed economic signals and Fed uncertainty - Technical indecision at resistance levels - Declining volatility and volume Bearish Scenario (Probability: 20%) Risk Factors: - Fed hawkish surprise or strong economic data - Technical breakdown below $3,300 support - Dollar strength and rising real yields - Profit-taking from institutional players Downside Targets: - Initial: $3,200-3,250 - Extended: $3,100-3,150 - Stress: $3,000-3,050 --- Long-Term Strategic Outlook Secular Bull Market Analysis Gold's secular bull market remains intact with multiple supportive factors: Monetary Debasement: Ongoing currency printing cycles Debt Sustainability: Growing government debt burdens globally Demographic Shifts: Aging populations requiring safe assets Technology Disruption: Digital currencies highlighting gold's role Multi-Year Price Projections 2025 Year-End: $3,597-3,800 (analytical forecast range) 2026 Target: $4,200-4,500 (Elliott Wave completion) 2027-2030: $5,000-6,000 (secular bull market continuation) Crisis Scenario: $7,000+ (major monetary system disruption) --- Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations Gold (XAUUSD) stands at a critical juncture near $3,448, exhibiting technical characteristics of a mature bull market phase with potential for both continuation and correction. The confluence of multiple analytical methodologies suggests elevated probability for a near-term consolidation or correction before the next major advance toward $4,000+. Key Success Factors: 1. Federal Reserve Policy Support: Dovish pivot crucial for next leg higher 2. Technical Breakout Confirmation: Sustained move above $3,520 with volume 3. Geopolitical Catalyst: Safe-haven demand supporting higher prices 4. Dollar Weakness: USD decline necessary for gold strength Critical Monitoring Points: 1. September 18 FOMC Meeting: Next Fed policy decision impact 2. Technical Level Behavior: Response at $3,450-3,520 resistance 3. Volume Patterns: Institutional participation in breakout attempts 4. Global Risk Sentiment: Correlation changes with risk assets Strategic Recommendation: Maintain cautiously optimistic stance with tactical flexibility. Current setup favors a Bull Trap scenario with 65% probability, suggesting opportunity to accumulate on pullbacks to $3,250-3,350 zone. Risk management remains paramount given elevated volatility potential and technical setup maturity. The October time window (12-22) represents a critical juncture for intermediate-term direction, with potential for either final impulse toward $4,000+ or corrective phase toward $3,150-3,200. --- *This comprehensive analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. Gold trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always implement appropriate risk management and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.* --- For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by sunya
XAUUSD Weekly outlook 25-29 Aug, 2025XAUUSD Weekly Outlook (Swing Trading Perspective) Gold has broken out of the descending channel after Powell hinted at potential rate cuts on Friday, which has shifted market sentiment bullish. Currently, price is hovering at 3371 above a key demand zone around 3349 – 3355, which also aligns with the channel breakout & retest. A pullback into this zone would provide a high-probability swing entry, supported by demand structure and market fundamentals. Trading Plan (Swing Buy Setup): Entry Zone: 3349 – 3355 (retest of channel line + demand area) Stop Loss: Below 3325 (invalidates demand structure) Target: 3430 (major supply zone / weekly resistance) Risk/Reward: ~2.3 Price has confirmed a bullish breakout of the falling channel. The retest + demand area aligns with structure support and liquidity grab. As long as price holds above 3350 zone, bias remains bullish. First upside objective is 3390–3400, followed by a weekly swing target of 3430. Bias: Bullish Confirmation Needed: Clean retest and rejection from 3350 demand area before continuation.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by QuinnReed_Charts
Gold Analysis – 15-Minute Timeframe (August 30, 2025)Considering the RSI is in overbought territory and a clear bearish divergence is present, it seems inevitable for gold to react to the highlighted resistance zone (red area). ✅ While the suggested take-profit (TP) target might be slightly ambitious—and geopolitical developments could prevent price from reaching the blue order block—technically, it's not unlikely for price to resume its bullish movement from that zone. 📌 If a valid setup forms, I’ll definitely enter a short (Sell) position. Good luck and happy trading! 🌟
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ApollonFinance
Strong Bullish Momentum, Eyeing a Break Above $3,420Hello everyone, Gold is currently maintaining a clear bullish structure as the Cup and Handle pattern nears completion, signalling the potential for a breakout should the $3,420 resistance be breached. The Fair Value Gap (FVG) zones at $3,375 – $3,400 have repeatedly acted as solid support for the ongoing uptrend, while trading volumes during upward sessions highlight that buying pressure remains dominant. Should the price break above $3,420, the next target could extend to $3,440, or even higher, as the bullish momentum strengthens further. Do you think gold has the strength to push through $3,420 this time? Share your thoughts in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by EmmaChartist
7
XAGUSD Final TP Hit BeautifullySILVER Hit our TAKE PROFIT PRICE LEVEL which doesnt surprise us " SOMFX TRADING TEAM " because this was what we were eagerly waiting for weeks. The structure of the market was clear to every one who understands the dynamics of the market move. if you go back to the original post of silver at 29/July/2025 you will clearly see that i have predicted the first move, the second move and also i have clerly pointed that the sellers will try to come back to the market at 39.00 and they will be doomed by point a horizontal line saying " So many willing sellers will be doomed here " and that is clearly what happened. GUYS HAPPY TARDING.
OANDA:XAGUSD
by Somfx_Trading
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey everyone, We closed the week on a strong note with the final target of 3439 being achieved. The move was confirmed by the EMA5 cross and lock above 3416 just like we analysed, providing clear validation of the bullish momentum. BULLISH TARGET 3390 – ✅ DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3390 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3416 - ✅ DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3416 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3439 - ✅ DONE BEARISH TARGETS 3365 – ✅ DONE We will now come back Sunday with a full multi timeframe analysis to prepare for next week’s setups, including updated views on the higher timeframes, EMA5 alignments, and structure expectations going forward. Thanks again for all your likes, comments, and follows. Wishing you all a fantastic weekend!! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
9
From Rally to Reversal: Gold Near PRZ, Bears Prepare!As I expected in the previous idea , Gold started to rise with the help of Powell's words and reached my targets(Full Target) . Gold is currently entering the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and is also moving near the Resistance zone($3,451-$3,406) and Resistance line . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , Gold appears to be completing microwave 5 of the main wave C . The wave structure is a Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) . I expect Gold to drop to at least $3,363 after entering the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . Second Target: $3,351 Third Target: Support lines Note: Stop Loss (SL) = $3,416(Worst) Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 2-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by pejman_zwin
25
Current Price Action All MarketsWanted to share a picture of the daily TF price action of the major markets. 1) August has been a very slow market for forex. Nothing but chop... Especially over the last 3 weeks., 2)Stocks and gold have seen a slow grinding uptrend., Each market is unique in its own right and benefits not only different types of traders, but also different setups perform better during specific market conditions. It's essential to trade various types of market conditions to suit your style, as well as when you perform at your best and worst.
TVC:DXY
by MoneyballAustin