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GOLD (XAUUSD): Important Supports to Watch As Gold continues an extended correction, here are significant supports to watch. Horizontal Structures Support 1: 4040 - 4060 area Support 2: 3942 - 3959 area Support 3: 3870 - 3897 area Support 4: 3766 - 3831 area Support 5: 3691 - 3735 area Vertical Structures Vertical Support 1: Rising trend line A trend line and horizontal Support 1 compose a demand zone. That will be the first potentially significant zone for a pullback. In case of its breakout, the price will reach at least Support 2 then. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by VasilyTrader
1
Gold’s Pullback: The Dip Everyone’s Afraid to Buy🏆 Gold’s Pullback: The Dip Everyone’s Afraid to Buy 🏆 Gold just gave us the pullback we’ve been waiting for. After an incredible vertical run to $4,400, price has tapped right back into long-term trend support — exactly where past rallies have launched from. Zoom out on the weekly channel and it’s clear: Momentum spikes look scary, but historically they’ve reset just before the next leg up. Volume confirms conviction — this isn’t a fade; it’s a reload. On the 4H chart, buyers are already defending the trendline like clockwork. On the 15M, we’re seeing the first signs of stabilization. 💡 My take: This isn’t the time to panic — it’s the time to position. “Buy fear, sell greed” wasn’t written for stocks; it was written for gold. 🎯 Watch zone: $4,000–$4,050 — that’s my reload range. Next resistance: $4,400 → $4,800 if the structure holds. 📈 I’m buying the dip. Are you brave enough to? #Gold #GC1 #Comex #Futures #BuyTheDip #Macro #Commodities #TrendFollowing #TechnicalAnalysis
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JoshuaDanford
What do you think 4085 gold buys or sellsBased on recent trading ideas for Gold on TradingView, the price level around 4085 is often cited as a key technical level: Support/Buy Zone: Many analyses view the area around $4085 - $4090 as a critical support level or a demand zone. If the price drops to this level and shows signs of reversing (like a bullish candlestick pattern), it's often seen as a good opportunity to BUY (go long), expecting the price to rebound. Invalidation/Sell Trigger: Conversely, if the price breaks clearly and holds below $4085 (or the nearby support zone), it is often considered an invalidation point for the bullish view. This breakout below support would typically signal a shift to a bearish bias, leading traders to consider SELL (go short) positions with targets at lower levels. Decision Zone: In some cases, $4085 is part of a larger "Decision Zone" (e.g., $4085–$4125), where the market's reaction dictates the next short-term trend. In summary, a "4085 gold buys or sells" TradingView idea is likely suggesting: BUY (Long) if the price holds above or bounces from $4085. SELL (Short) if the price breaks and closes convincingly below $4085.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by TradingHub_FX_crypto
GBP/JPY 2-hour chart...GBP/JPY 2-hour chart, here’s what’s clear: The pair has broken out of a falling-wedge / descending-channel pattern, which usually signals a bullish reversal. Price is trading around 202.15–202.65, currently testing above the wedge resistance and sitting near the Ichimoku cloud top, confirming early bullish structure. My marked a measured move projection (blue arrow) — that projection aligns well with a typical wedge breakout target. 📈 Target Analysis Breakout confirmation zone: Above 202.50–202.80. Target Point: Around 205.50–206.00 (the level drawn on my chart). This zone matches both the top of the previous swing and the measured-move objective of the wedge. 📊 Summary Type Price Level Notes Entry Zone 202.50–202.80 On bullish breakout confirmation Main Target 205.50 – 206.00 Projected wedge target Stop-Loss (for buy) 201.00 – 200.80 Below cloud & wedge retest Support to watch 201.20 Should hold to maintain bullish bias ✅ Final Target: 205.50 – 206.00 JPY
Long
by RSI_Trading_point
5
XAU/USD (Gold 4H timeframe)... XAU/USD (Gold 4H timeframe) — here’s what’s visible and how it breaks down technically: Price: Around 4065 USD currently. Trendline: A major uptrend line has been broken clearly. Ichimoku Cloud: Price has fallen below the Kumo, confirming bearish momentum. Support Zone: Between 4120–4160 USD, already broken and retested. Measured Move (Target Projection): my chart’s extension line points toward a target around 3840–3860 USD. 📉 Target Breakdown: Immediate support: 4000 USD (psychological round number). Main target: 3840 USD (as marked on My chart — aligns with previous structure support). Extended bearish target: If momentum continues, 3740–3760 USD zone may come next. ⚠ Notes: If gold reclaims above 4160–4180, bearish bias weakens. Below 4060 = bears in full control. Below 4000 = confirmation toward your target zone (≈3840 USD). ✅ Final Target: $3,840 – $3,860 USD Would you like me to give you stop-loss and re-entry zones too (for sell setup)?
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by RSI_Trading_point
11
Silver (XAG/USD) 2-hour chart Pattern...Silver (XAG/USD) 2-hour chart, here’s a complete target analysts --- 📊 Chart Overview Instrument: Silver (XAG/USD) Timeframe: 2-hour Current Price: Around $50.85 Trend: Bearish — price has broken below both the ascending trendline and the Ichimoku Cloud, confirming downward momentum. Indicators Used: Ichimoku Cloud, Trendline, Price Action --- 🎯 Target Levels 1. 🎯 Target Point 1 (Short-Term Target): Price Zone: $49.00 – $49.20 This matches my first “Target Point” on the chart. It’s the next significant support level after the trendline break. Expect partial take-profit or price pause here before further continuation. 2. 🎯 Target Point 2 (Extended / Major Target): Price Zone: $46.50 – $46.70 This matches my second (lower) “Target Point” marked on the chart. If bearish pressure continues and price stays below $50.50 resistance, this is the next strong downside target. --- 🧭 Summary Table Target Type Price Level Notes 🎯 TP1 $49.00 – $49.20 First support zone / short-term profit area 🎯 TP2 $46.50 – $46.70 Extended bearish target / swing completion 🛑 Resistance / Stop Area $51.90 – $52.10 Above cloud — invalidation for short setups
TVC:SILVERShort
by RSI_Trading_point
6
(XAU/USD – Gold Spot, 1-hour timeframe)...(XAU/USD – Gold Spot, 1-hour timeframe), here’s the breakdown: Current price: Around $4,337 First target (near-term): Around $4,284 Second (main) target: Around $4,205 These target levels are marked on my chart with blue arrows labeled “Target Point.” 📉 Interpretation: The chart suggests a bearish (downward) move — likely following a correction from the peak labeled “2.” The Ichimoku cloud and marked arrows indicate a short-term pullback, with a stronger support zone near $4,205–4,210.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by RSI_Trading_point
11
DeGRAM | GOLD broke an ascending structure📊 Technical Analysis ● XAU/USD is trading within a descending channel but recently bounced off its lower boundary near 4,070, showing early signs of bullish correction. ● A breakout above 4,149 could trigger momentum toward 4,192 and 4,236, supported by a double rejection at the channel’s lower trendline. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Gold is gaining mild strength as lower U.S. Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions boost demand for safe-haven assets. ✨ Summary ● Long bias above 4,070; targets 4,149–4,236. Technical recovery and safe-haven demand support short-term bullish momentum. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by DeGRAM
1
Gold Price Analysis (XAU/USD) – October 22, 2025Double Bottom Reversal Pattern in Play Gold continues to show signs of a potential technical rebound after the sharp correction from the 4,370 zone. The market has found temporary support around 4,050–4,070, an area that previously acted as a strong demand base during the early October rally. On the H1 timeframe, price action is forming a potential double bottom structure, suggesting a possible bullish reversal if the neckline around 4,370 is retested. This level aligns with the previous swing high and could act as a key resistance for short-term traders. Key Technical Levels: Immediate support: 4,050 – 4,070 Next support: 3,970 – 3,950 Immediate resistance: 4,210 – 4,240 Major resistance (neckline target): 4,370 Trading Outlook: The short-term bias remains neutral-to-bullish as long as gold holds above 4,050. A successful defense of this level could lead to a gradual recovery toward 4,210 and 4,370. However, a clear breakdown below 4,050 would invalidate this bullish structure and expose the market to deeper correction toward 3,950. Trading Strategy Ideas: Buy setup: Look for confirmation candles or bullish structure around 4,060 – 4,080 with targets at 4,210 and 4,370. Stop loss below 4,030. Sell setup: Wait for rejection signals near 4,370 resistance to short back toward 4,210 or 4,100. This pattern resembles an accumulation phase after a steep selloff, where smart money could be building long positions. The reaction in the next few candles will be critical for determining whether gold resumes its uptrend or continues consolidating. If you find this analysis useful, make sure to follow for daily gold trading strategies and market insights.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
Gold suffers biggest crash since 2013: What’s next for metal?Gold just experienced its worst single-day crash since 2013, plunging over 8% from record highs after forming a double top. What’s behind this dramatic move, and what’s next for gold? After a strong rally driven by fiscal and trade uncertainty and delayed US economic data, gold suddenly tumbled to the $4,000s. This sharp drop comes amid technical overextension and ahead of a crucial US CPI report due Friday, with the government shutdown still adding to market uncertainty. Overextended : Gold was heavily overbought on multiple timeframes (4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly), with a double top and weakening RSI signalling a correction was due. Profit-taking ahead of CPI : Many traders secured profits before Friday’s CPI report, with consensus expecting inflation to tick up, potentially impacting Fed rate expectations and the US dollar. Trade developments : De-escalation between the US and China, with Trump and Xi set to meet at APEC, reduced some risk premium that had supported gold. Support and scenarios : Strong support levels remain, with a possible further downside to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (~$3,945), but a deeper drop to $3,735 is seen as unlikely unless catalysts turn more bearish. Volatility is back in the gold market! Will this correction turn into a longer consolidation, or is it just a pause before new highs? Watch the key levels and upcoming CPI data, and remember—trade smart, respect your risk, and cash out when needed! This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
2
XAUUSD: Price can Drop to Support Zone and Break Trend LineHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup. Market Analysis Gold has been in a very strong uptrend, which accelerated after breaking out of a prior Upward Channel. This led to a new, steeper rally along a major Trend Line, culminating in a new All-Time High around the 4380 mark. Currently, after reaching that peak, the price has completed a healthy correction back down to the main Trend Line, which also aligns with the Support zone at the 4250 level. The price has bounced from this area and is now attempting to rally again. My Scenario & Strategy My scenario is a bearish one, built on the idea that this second attempt to rally will fail to make a new high. I'm looking for this current rally to lose momentum as it approaches the prior ATH of 4380. The key signal for me would be a strong and clear rejection from that area, showing that buyers no longer have the strength to continue pushing the price higher. Therefore, the strategy is to watch for this failure at the highs. A confirmed reversal would validate the short scenario and should lead to a decline that breaks the major ascending Trend Line. The primary target for this corrective move is 4205, which is inside the major Support zone. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ratner
8
XAUUSD: Correction Within Uptrend – Demand Zone in FocusHello, traders! The gold market (XAUUSD) continues to demonstrate strong bullish momentum within a clearly defined uptrend structure that has been developing for several weeks. The movement is characterized by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, supported by a well-respected ascending trend line. Throughout this upward phase, we’ve observed multiple breakouts from short-term consolidation zones and corrections — each confirming the dominance of buyers. These breakouts, marked on the chart, acted as continuation signals that pushed price toward new local highs. Currently, after reaching the 4,360.00 area, gold entered a corrective phase, forming a short-term retracement. This pullback brought the price back to the previously broken trend line and into the Demand Zone 2 (4,200–4,250) — an area that has repeatedly served as strong support for the market. My scenario for the development, if sellers manage to push the price below the 4,200.00 level, the structure will temporarily weaken, and we may see a deeper correction toward the next Demand Zone 2 (4,100–3,950). This zone would then act as a potential re-accumulation area before buyers could regain control. At the same time, Demand Zone 1, located higher, continues to confirm the overall bullish context — showing that gold maintains its medium-term uptrend despite the current short-term correction. Manage your risk!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by heniitrading
8
Gold 1H – Bearish Reaction After Consecutive Gains🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Trading Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader 📈 Market Context After several sessions of steady gains, gold is showing signs of exhaustion as U.S. Treasury yields stabilize and traders reassess the Federal Reserve’s next move. The market’s focus today is on U.S. housing data and Fed officials’ remarks, which could shape expectations for the December policy outlook. • A hawkish tone from policymakers may strengthen the dollar and pressure gold lower. • Conversely, softer remarks could briefly trigger buying around key discount zones, but the overall tone remains corrective after the recent rally. Market liquidity is concentrated near the $4,230 area — where price may tap into unmitigated supply before continuing its bearish leg. 🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Style) • Structure: The overall bias has shifted bearish following consecutive ChoCH and BOS formations. • Premium Zone: The 4,230–4,228 area aligns with an H1 order block and previous liquidity pool — a prime zone for short re-entry. • Liquidity Sweep: The recent upside push toward 4,230 may sweep late buyers before the next bearish leg unfolds. • Discount Zone: Short-term liquidity may rest around 4,080–4,100, which aligns with previous sell-side imbalance (SSI) and acts as an intraday reaction zone. 🔴 Sell Setup • Entry: 4,230 – 4,228 • Stop-Loss: 4,240 • Take-Profit Targets: 4,100 → 4,080 → 4,050+ 🟢 Buy Scalp Setup (Short-Term Countermove) • Entry: 4,081 – 4,083 • Stop-Loss: 4,074 • Take-Profit Targets: 4,100 → 4,115 (Only valid if liquidity sweep confirms reaction within discount zone) ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • Confirm M15 BOS/ChoCH before entry — avoid blind orders during news. • Reduce position size for scalp entries; primary directional bias remains bearish. • Lock partial profits near first liquidity targets and trail stops as structure confirms continuation. ✅ Summary Gold faces near-term correction pressure after multiple bullish sessions. The 4,230–4,228 zone offers a clean premium OB entry for continuation shorts, while reactive buyers may scalp intraday from 4,081 if liquidity sweeps occur. Stay adaptive — today’s sentiment is short-term bearish within a larger range-bound structure. FOLLOW RYAN_TITANTRADER for daily SMC setups ⚡
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ryan_TitanTrader
22
Gold Update 22OCT2025: Wave 4 Correction is in Progress Sooner or later, both overbought conditions and bearish divergence tend to play out — and we’re seeing that now. Gold just experienced a massive and surprising sell-off, with many stop-losses triggered. The price dropped $300 in a single day, compared to its usual $50 range. This likely marks the start of wave 4, as expected. Price briefly touched the bottom of the uptrend channel and bounced off quickly. However, wave 4 is rarely straightforward. It can take many corrective forms, such as a triangle or sideways consolidation. It also tends to be larger than wave 2 and should become clearly visible on the chart. The target range for wave 4 remains $3,750–$4,000. While $4,000 has already been touched, the corrective structure isn’t fully formed yet. We should wait for wave 4 to fully develop before setting any expectations for wave 5.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by aibek
2
Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to support area of 4040.Gold is actively rising and I believe that before the impulse ends we should see the correction that many are expecting. As of today, I see the completion of the higher order wave “3” and the approaching start of the correction in wave “4”. It makes no sense to put any distant plans in the correction and I think that the support area of 4040 looks quite attractive. Fundamental context Gold continues its rally and recently broke new highs, fueled by expectations of U.S. rate cuts, global uncertainty, and safe-haven demand. Central banks are still actively increasing their gold reserves — this structural demand adds support even if price pullbacks occur. Supply growth is modest — mining output is constrained, and recycling of gold is not enough, which limits the downward pressure on prices. Given this backdrop, the chance of a correction rises as momentum stretches — but the underlying fundamentals remain favorable for further upside once the correction completes. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Hellena_Trade
21
Stop!Loss|Market View: SILVER🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for SILVER ☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 46.91212 💰TP: 41.26205 ⛔️SL: 50.07903 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: Metals have fixed intraday decline records early this week. For now, the likelihood of continued declines is higher, and a reversal is more likely. A strong factor for continued declines in silver would be the formation of an accumulation between levels 47 and 48. In this case, a drop to level 38 could be expected. The declines in metals are explained with profit-taking, thereby strengthening the USD. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅ ❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by StopLoss222
Stop!Loss|Market View: GOLD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for GOLD ☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 4330.320 💰TP: 4023.981 ⛔️SL: 4544.296 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: Gold has been showing signs of a possible "double top," but an update of the high may happen. While gold is testing its all-time high once more, silver and platinum have not yet recovered from their decline at the end of last week. Given that the USD index has been rising alongside gold since mid-September, it can be assumed that gold's current rally is a culmination of retail buying. The likelihood of a downward reversal has increased. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅ ❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by StopLoss222
GBPUSD 1H Analysis: Bearish Pressure Builds After Break 📊 GBPUSD – 1 Hour Analysis (SELL) Technical Outlook: Bullish momentum is fading, and selling pressure is building after the recent break. My trade plan is on the SELL side; target level: 1.33564 📉 Fundamental Analysis: On the U.S. side, the strong dollar narrative and the Fed’s data‑driven stance continue to support USD strength. Meanwhile, uncertainty around the U.K.’s growth/inflation balance and tighter financial conditions are weighing on GBP. Together, these factors reinforce the downside bias in the pair. 🙏 Every like is my biggest motivation to keep sharing these analyses.
Short
by TraderTilki
42
Market Seasonality: Finding Statistical Edges in Price Patterns🟢 Overview Market seasonality refers to recurring, quantifiable patterns in asset price movements that appear consistently across different time periods. Rather than mystical predictions, these patterns reflect systematic behavioral trends, institutional flows, and market structures that have persisted across years, and in some cases, centuries, of trading history. 🟢 How Seasonality Works Seasonality analysis examines historical price data to identify months or periods when specific assets have historically shown strength or weakness. The approach replaces emotion-driven decision-making with probabilistic insights based on historical performance across complete market cycles, including bull markets, bear markets, and periods of consolidation. By quantifying these patterns, traders and investors can identify potential statistical edges in their execution timing. 🟢 Evidence Across Asset Classes 1. Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD Since the development of futures markets and institutional participation, Bitcoin has demonstrated notable seasonal patterns with measurable statistical significance. September has averaged -1.92% returns, establishing it as the weakest month. In contrast, October has emerged as the strongest performer with average returns of +21.59% and a 90% positive occurrence. This level of consistency suggests a robust statistical edge rather than random variation. Day-of-week patterns in modern Bitcoin are relatively tight, with differences ranging from 0.07% to 0.50%. Monday edges out as the optimal day for selling positions. However, these daily patterns offer considerably less statistical significance than the monthly seasonality effects, as the weekly variations have smoothed out compared to Bitcoin's earlier history. 2. Ethereum INDEX:ETHUSD Ethereum displays even more pronounced seasonal variations with stronger directional bias. September has been particularly challenging, averaging -10.04% returns and showing negative performance in eight out of ten years, representing an 80% probability of decline. June also demonstrates weakness at -7.20% average returns. Conversely, May stands out as the strongest month with average returns of +34.97%, positive 70% of the time across the dataset. May has delivered positive returns in seven out of ten years, providing a statistically meaningful edge. Day-of-week analysis reveals differences of 0.2% to 0.6%, with Wednesday edging out slightly for selling and Tuesday showing marginally better performance for buying. However, these daily variations lack statistical significance when compared to the dramatic monthly patterns, representing more noise than actionable alpha for systematic strategies. 3. S&P 500 SP:SPX With over 50 years of data dating back to 1971, the S&P 500 demonstrates the famous "September Effect." September averages -0.90% returns and has been negative with notable consistency, establishing statistical significance through sheer sample size. November, capturing typical year-end institutional positioning, averages +1.73% with positive performance 70% of the time. April comes in second at +1.44% average returns. The persistence of these patterns across five decades provides robust evidence of systematic seasonal effects even in highly efficient markets. Day-of-week effects in the S&P 500 are minimal, ranging from just 0.01% to 0.07%. Monday shows a slight negative drift at -0.01%, while Wednesday edges up 0.07%. These intraday variations fall well within normal variance and lack statistical significance for execution timing. For this index, monthly patterns provide the primary source of seasonal alpha. 4. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD Perhaps most compelling is gold's seasonal data spanning nearly 200 years since 1832, offering an extraordinarily large sample size for statistical validation. January shows the strongest average returns at +0.99% and has been positive 80% of the time, representing a highly reliable statistical edge. June represents the weakest period at -0.18% average returns, with October also serving as a potential entry point at just 0.05% average returns. July comes in as the second-best month at +0.79%. The consistency of these patterns across multiple centuries, world events, and monetary system changes indicates deeply embedded structural inefficiencies in market dynamics. Day-of-week patterns in gold are similarly minimal. Thursday edges out at 0.09% for optimal selling, while Sunday shows 0.01% for buying opportunities. Like the S&P 500, gold trades predominantly on monthly patterns rather than daily variations, with intraweek effects lacking statistical significance. 🟢 TL;DR 1. Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD : Accumulate during September weakness (-1.92%), sell into October strength (+21.59%). October has been positive 9 out of 10 years since 2015, representing a 90% positive occurrence. Day of week: Sunday dips for buying, Monday for selling. 2. Ethereum INDEX:ETHUSD : Summer pain is real. September (-10.04%) and June (-7.20%) are buying opportunities. May (+34.97%) is the monster month historically, positive 7 out of 10 years (70% positive frequency). Day of week: Tuesday buying, Wednesday selling, but minimal statistical significance. 3. S&P 500 SP:SPX : The September Effect demonstrates statistical significance (-0.90% average over 50+ years). November (+1.73%) captures the year-end rally with 70% positive occurrence. Day of week effects are negligible (0.01-0.07%) and lack statistical significance. 4. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD : January strength (+0.99%, 80% positive frequency) after June weakness (-0.18%). Nearly 200 years of data backing these patterns provides exceptional statistical validation. Day of week: Sunday buying, Thursday selling, but minimal differences. 🟢 Final thoughts Ultimately, seasonality analysis does not guarantee future results, but it provides a framework for probabilistic decision-making with quantifiable statistical edges. Rather than attempting to time markets based on sentiment or short-term price movements, systematic traders and investors can align decisions with periods that have historically shown consistent strength or weakness with statistical significance. This approach is particularly valuable for planning entry and exit points, portfolio rebalancing, and managing position sizing within a rules-based framework. Notably, while day-of-week patterns exist in some assets, monthly seasonality tends to provide more significant and statistically reliable edges across most markets. The data suggests that seasonal patterns persist even in highly efficient markets, driven by recurring institutional behaviors, tax considerations, and structural market dynamics that create exploitable inefficiencies. Market seasonality should be viewed as one analytical tool within a comprehensive quantitative framework, not a guarantee of performance, but a method to incorporate historical probabilities and statistical edges into systematic investment decisions. This isn't about perfect timing either. It's about leveraging statistical edges based on historical probabilities instead of emotion. You'll still be wrong sometimes, but less often when operating with decades of data and quantifiable patterns rather than sentiment alone. 👉 Try the Seasonality Heatmap indicator yourself on TradingView to explore these patterns across different assets and timeframes. *This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by QuantAlgo
GOLD fell nearly $300, the biggest one-day drop since 2021The precious metals market witnessed a sharp decline in the trading session on Tuesday (October 21), when the spot gold price fell more than 5%, marking the sharpest decline in 4 years. This correction came after many consecutive weeks of increase, when gold continuously set new peaks and reached overbought levels on technical indicators. As of the time of recording, the spot gold price decreased by 5.21% to 4,129.05 USD/ounce, after falling below the 4,100 USD/ounce mark at one point, meaning a loss of nearly 300 USD compared to the highest level of the day. Previously, on Monday, gold had peaked at about 4,381.52 USD/ounce, before turning down nearly 3.8%. Strong Dollar Slows Gains The stronger US Dollar has made dollar-denominated gold more expensive, weighing on demand. Weakening safe-haven sentiment has also contributed to the sell-off. Expectations of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next week to ease trade tensions have dampened demand for the precious metal. In addition, the peak gold buying season in India, one of the world’s largest consumer markets, has ended, dampening physical demand. Markets lose position data, volatility soars The partial U.S. government shutdown has left traders without access to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly speculative positioning report, data used to measure hedge fund participation in gold and silver contracts. The lack of positioning data makes the market more sensitive, especially when speculative buying increases during volatile times. The volatility has pushed short-term volatility in the precious metal to its highest level in months. Options trading volume on the world’s largest gold ETF exceeded 2 million contracts for two consecutive sessions, a new record, suggesting investors are rushing to hedge or take advantage of volatility to seek profits. Experts warn of the risk of a deeper correction According to Bloomberg Intelligence strategists, gold ETF holdings are still below historic highs, suggesting there is still room for a bull run. However, they warn that “every rally has its limits,” and that excessive speculative buying often turns into selling pressure when economic data improves. “If upcoming economic reports show a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy, a deeper correction in gold is entirely possible,” the report said. Silver also under pressure after a strong run Silver, the metal, has risen nearly 80% since the start of the year thanks to tight supplies and rising investment demand that has followed gold’s slide. The widening price gap between London and New York has prompted traders to move the metal to the UK to ease supply and demand pressures. According to exchange data, treasuries linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded the largest silver withdrawals since February, while inventories in New York continued to fall, reflecting a restructuring of global supply amid the market correction. In short, after a long rally and high expectations, the gold market is entering a “necessary cooling” phase. While the long-term trend is still supported by geopolitical risks and loose monetary policy, short-term volatility is likely to remain high as the market reassesses yield expectations, inflation and the health of the US economy. Technical Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD The daily chart of gold shows that after a strong increase to the peak around 4,380 - 4,400 USD/ounce, the price has entered a rather deep technical correction phase, touching the Fibonacci support zone of 0.618 around 4,110 USD/ounce corresponding to the EMA21 line. The strong bearish candle has been partially absorbed, indicating that the selling pressure is weakening and the downward momentum is showing signs of slowing down. The RSI indicator has escaped the overbought zone and is approaching the neutral level (50), reflecting the state of re-accumulation after the correction. As long as the price remains above the 4,036 - 4,110 USD/ounce zone, the medium-term bullish structure has not been broken. Overall, gold is in a "breathing" phase after a steep increase, and if it holds support at $4,110/ounce, the prospect of returning to the main uptrend in the coming weeks is very positive. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4231 - 4229⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4235 →Take Profit 1 4223 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4217 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3949 - 3951⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3945 →Take Profit 1 3957 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3963
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading