Get started

Metals

Continue to short on rebound, expect a big drop#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD The daily line closed with a long upper shadow bullish candlestick, the price deviated significantly from the moving average, and the need for technical adjustment was obvious; the four-hour chart simultaneously released a callback signal, the probability of bulls "resting" in the short term increased greatly, and a wave of adjustments was ready to go! Investors should be wary of this potential pullback risk. For the bears to trigger a significant decline, the key support level of 3735 must be broken; otherwise, gold is likely to rebound.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trading-Magician_G
Gold’s Secret Driver Flashes Red – What That Means at 3,745 Sup.Gold’s rally just slammed into resistance at 3,780 - and now the market is deciding: does support at 3,745 hold for another leg up, or do rising USD and real yields flip the script? This is the most important zone of the week for gold traders. Gold (XAUUSD) is pausing just below the 3,780 resistance zone after a strong run. The bigger trend remains bullish, but intraday momentum has cooled as the USD and yields firm up. Daily Chart View (Big Picture) • Trend intact: higher lows, structure still bullish. • Support: 3,745 → 3,726. • Resistance: 3,780 → 3,810 → 3,850. • GLD ETF flows remain supportive on daily closes. 4H Chart View (Execution) • Consolidation just under 3,780. • Micro support: 3,745–3,750. • Nominal yields (US10Y ~4.11%) and real yields (DFII10 ~1.78) are ticking higher → headwind. • DXY firm at ~97.7. • GLD 4H candles consolidating, not pushing higher. Scenarios 1. Breakout Buy: • 4H close >3,780 with DXY <97.5 & US10Y <4.10 and real yields easing. • Target 3,810 → 3,850. Stop below 3,745. 2. Pullback Buy (Base Case): • Dip into 3,745–3,750 holds, with GLD stabilizing. • Target 3,780, then 3,810. Stop 3,726. 3. Bearish Flip (Lower Probability): • 4H close <3,745 while DXY/real yields extend higher. • Opens 3,726 → 3,700. Invalidation >3,780. The daily trend is still bullish, but the 4H says momentum is cooling. Best risk/reward is to let gold test 3,745–3,750 for a dip-buy setup, or wait for a confirmed breakout >3,780 with the macro drivers aligned. Are you buying the 3,745 dip, or waiting for a clean breakout at 3,780? Drop your view below ⬇️
AMEX:GLD
by Wisdom_in_Chaos
XAU/USD – Gold Pushes Higher From $3778 | Next Target $3810?Gold (XAU/USD) is gaining momentum after bouncing from the $3778 zone. If buyers hold above $3778, the next upside target could be around $3810–$3815. A strong break above that area may open the path toward $3830. On the downside, support is seen near $3763. This rally shows bulls are still in control, but we need confirmation from upcoming sessions. 👉 Do you think Gold can reach $3810 this week, or will it pull back first?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LUCIFER_EARNING_CLUB
2
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for September 24thGold Technical Analysis Daily resistance is at 3800, support at 3632 Four-hour resistance is at 3800, support at 3716 One-hour resistance is at 3780, support at 3750 From a technical perspective, spot gold fell intraday in the previous trading day and has begun to fluctuate and consolidate to build upward momentum, which may provide support for a resumption of the upward trend. Meanwhile, the price is trying to ease the clear overbought conditions in the RSI. The uptrend appears to have lost momentum near the key resistance level of $3780. Yesterday, the price surged to around 3790 before falling sharply, which, along with the bearish divergence on the RSI, confirms the exhaustion of the upward trend. The four-hour chart shows signs of upward fatigue, and a sharp correction may be in the offing. The NY market is focusing on the upward pressure of the 3780-3800 price range, while the downward support of the 3736-3712 range is under consideration. The short-term bull-bear dividing line is around 3750. My personal recommendation: For intraday trading, sell on rallies. SELL: Near 3780 BUY: Near 3740
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ActuaryJ
Gold can Complete its Topping Pattern and FallHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The market has been developing a complex consolidation structure after its initial uptrend failed to sustain momentum. After breaking out of a first range, the bullish impulse failed, leading to a breakdown below the major ascending mirror line and establishing the current, higher second range. The price action for XAU has since been contained within this new consolidation, repeatedly testing the upper resistance and lower support boundaries. Currently, the asset is again testing the upper boundary of this range, an area that has consistently attracted sellers. In my mind, this price action is forming a complex topping pattern. I expect that the price will be rejected from the top of the current range, perhaps after a brief interaction with the nearby mirror line, and then fail at the highs one more time. I think this final failure will trigger a significant decline with enough momentum to break the mirror line support decisively. Therefore, I have placed my TP at the 3630 current support level, targeting the bottom of this second range. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by LegionQ8
24
Gold Bull Markets Long Term Overview and 2025 Market UpdateGold Bull Markets Long Term Overview and 2025 Market Update ________________________________________ • This cycle is different: record central-bank buying + renewed ETF inflows + lower real rates = powerful tailwind. • Price: Gold notched fresh ATHs this month (up to $3,790.82). 2025 is shaping up as the strongest year since the late 1970s. • Relative: Gold is crushing equities YTD (≈+40% vs S&P 500 ≈+13% total return). • Setup: A 13-year “cup-and-handle” breakout in 2024 kick-started the move. • Outlook: Base case from the Street: $3,700 by end-’25 and ~$4,000 by mid-’26; upside to $4,500 if flows accelerate. ________________________________________ 🏆 Historic Gold Bull Markets — Timeline & Stats 1) 1968–1980 “Super Bull” • Start/End: ~$35 → $850 (Jan 1980) • Gain: ~2,330% • Drivers: End of Bretton Woods, oil shocks, double-digit inflation, geopolitical stress. • Drawdown: ~–45% (1974–1976) before the final blow-off run. 2) 1999–2011/12 • Start/Peak: ~$252 (1999) → ~$1,920 (2011–12) • Gain: ~650% • Drivers: Commodities supercycle, EM demand, USD weakness, GFC safe-haven bid. 3) 2016/2018–Present (The “CB-Led” Cycle) • Start Zone: $1,050–$1,200 → New ATH $3,790 (Sep 2025) • Gain: ~215–260% (depending on 2016 vs 2018 anchor) • Drivers: Record central-bank accumulation, sticky inflation/low real rates, geopolitics; 2024 13-yr base breakout. ________________________________________ 📊 At-A-Glance Comparison (Updated 2025) Metric 1968–80 Super Bull 1999–2012 2016/18–2025 Current 🚀 Total Gain ~2,330% ~650% ~215–260% (so far) ⏲️ Duration 12 yrs 13 yrs 7–9 yrs (ongoing) 💔 Max Drawdown ~–45% (’74–’76) ~–30% (’08) ~–20% (2022) 🏦 Main Buyer Retail/Europe Funds/EM Central Banks (dominant) 🏛️ Pattern Secular parabolic Cyclical ramps 13-yr base → breakout (’24) Notes: current cycle characteristics validated by WGC demand trends & technical breakout in Mar 2024. ________________________________________ 📈 Top 10 Stats of the Current Bull (2025) 1. Price & ATHs: Spot $3,75–$3,79k; fresh ATH $3,790.82 on Sep 23, 2025. 2. 2025 YTD: Roughly +40–43% YTD (best since the late ’70s). 3. Central Banks: 1,045 t added in 2024 (3rd straight 1k+ year). H1’25 ≈ 415 t (still elevated). 4. ETF Flows: Strongest half-year inflows since 2020, aiding the surge. 5. Gold vs Equities: Gold ≈+40% vs S&P 500 ≈+13% total return YTD. 6. Jewelry Demand: Price strength is crimping tonnage (2024 down ~11%; Q2’25 –14% y/y), even as value hits records. 7. Gold–Silver Ratio: Now around ~85–88 (silver catching up as it pushes $43–$44). 8. Macro Link: Strong safe-haven bid + rate-cut hopes supporting new highs. 9. Technical: Confirmed cup-and-handle breakout (Mar ’24) underpinning trend. 10. Street Forecasts: DB lifts 2026 to $4,000; GS baseline $4,000 by mid-’26, upside $4,500 with bigger private-investor rotation. ________________________________________ 🔄 What Makes This Bull Different (2025 Edition) • 🏦 Central-Bank Dominance — Official sector is the anchor buyer (3rd straight 1k+ tonne year in 2024; 2025 tracking strong despite Q2 deceleration). • ⚡ Faster Recoveries — Pullbacks have been shallower and shorter vs the 1970s analog. • 📈 Coexisting With Risk Assets — Rare combo: gold ATHs with equities up YTD suggests a macro hedge bid alongside optimism in select risk assets. • 📐 Structural Breakout — The 13-year base cleared in 2024 set multi-year targets. ________________________________________ 🎯 Strategy Ideas (2025 & Beyond) Core • Buy/Hold on Dips: Stagger entries (DCA) into physical (allocated), ETFs (e.g., GLD/IAU), and quality miners/royalties. • Prefer Physical/Allocated where counterparty risk matters; use ETFs for liquidity. Satellite/Leverage • Silver & GSR Mean-Reversion: With the GSR ~85–88, silver historically offers torque in up-legs. Pair with high-quality silver miners. • Factor Tilt in Miners: Focus on low AISC, strong balance sheets, growing reserves, and jurisdictions with rule-of-law. Risk-Management • Define max drawdown tolerance per sleeve; pre-plan trims near parabolic extensions or if macro invalidates (e.g., real-yield spike). ________________________________________ 🧪 Reality Check: What Could Invalidate the Bull? • Real yields + USD rip higher (sustained), dampening non-yielding assets. • Sharp halt in official-sector buying (e.g., policy shifts). • Rapid growth re-acceleration reducing safe-haven & rate-cut expectations. ________________________________________ 🧭 Quick Reference Tables 🧾 Summary: Historic vs Current Feature 1968–80 1999–2012 2016/18–2025 Total Gain ~2,330% ~650% ~215–260% Duration 12 yrs 13 yrs 7–9 yrs (ongoing) Correction ~–45% ~–30% ~–20% (’22) Main Buyer Retail/Europe Funds/EM Central Banks Pattern Parabolic Cyclical Cup & Handle → Secular 🧩 “If-This-Then-That” Playbook • If real yields fall & CB buying persists → Ride trend / add on consolidations. • If USD + real yields jump → Trim beta, keep core hedge. • If GSR stays >80 with silver momentum → Overweight silver sleeve for torque. ________________________________________ 🧠 Outside-the-Box Adds 💼 Role in a Portfolio (example frameworks) • Resilience sleeve (5–10%): Physical + broad ETF. • Offense sleeve (2–5%): Quality miners/royalties; optional silver tilt. • Tactical (0–3%): Trend-following overlay (breakouts/consolidations). 🧭 Decision Checkpoints (quarterly) • Central-bank net purchases (WGC). • ETF flows (Western markets). • Real yields (10y TIPS), USD trend, and GSR. ________________________________________ 🔚 Key Takeaways (Updated) • Relentless official-sector demand + technical breakout are the twin pillars of this cycle. • Macro mix (policy easing expectations, geopolitics, diversification from USD reserves) supports an extended run. • Base case: Street sees $3.7k by end-’25 and ~$4k by mid-’26, with upside to $4.5k if private capital rotation accelerates. Manage risk; embrace volatility.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
79
Gold (XAU/USD) Cycle & Trend OutlookXAU/USD Update On the low time frame, Gold is testing the 3,776 resistance zone after a strong rally. Key levels: 3,776 → local resistance. A breakout and hold above this level would confirm continuation toward higher targets (3,800+). 3,762 – 3,657 → key support range. Holding this zone keeps the main uptrend intact. Upside scenario: If price breaks and confirms above 3,776, bullish momentum continues, extending the rally. Downside risk: Failure to hold 3,762 could trigger a pullback toward 3,657. A deeper breakdown below 3,657 would shift momentum bearish, targeting 3,314. Cycle support: 3,314 is the major cycle trend level that Gold must protect to maintain its broader bullish structure. 📌 Summary Above 3,776 → bullish continuation with potential new highs. Hold above 3,762 – 3,657 → main uptrend remains safe. Below 3,657 → correction risk toward 3,314 cycle level.
TVC:GOLDLong
by SatochiTrader
DeGRAM | GOLD will correct from the $3800📊 Technical Analysis ● XAU/USD surged from the 3715 support, reaching the 3780–3800 resistance zone within a steep rising channel. ● Price is now overextended, with rejection likely near 3800, suggesting a short-term correction back toward 3750–3760. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Gold’s recent rally was fueled by safe-haven demand as Fed officials signaled caution on further rate hikes, but stronger U.S. yields still limit upside momentum. ✨ Summary Gold faces resistance near 3800, with short-term downside risk toward 3750–3760 if rejection confirms. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by DeGRAM
3
GOLD → Intermediate bottom. Consolidation before growth FX:XAUUSD is being sold off and declining amid profit-taking following speeches by Powell and Trump. However, the market is quite aggressive amid falling interest rates. After forming an interim bottom, the market quickly bought back the decline. Gold is correcting after record growth, awaiting new signals from Fed representatives and PCE inflation data on Friday. The price remains close to historic highs, but the upward momentum has temporarily slowed, with consolidation forming at 3752-3791. Key factors : Powell gave no clear hints about future rate cuts, noting the risks of rising inflation and a weakening labor market. The probability of a rate cut in October has risen to 92%, but the Fed's sentiment index is fluctuating somewhat... The risk of a US government shutdown on October 1 and mixed PMI data are holding back the USD's strengthening. Technically, gold remains in a bullish trend, but consolidation is possible in the short term. PCE data will be the deciding factor — weak figures will support the metal, while strong figures will trigger a correction. Resistance levels: 3776.9, 3791, 3800 Support levels: 3767, 3752, 3738 The price is consolidating. Before reaching 3791-3800, there may be a retest of local support. Similarly, a retest of the ATH may also trigger a small pullback of 1/2 of the impulse before a breakout and growth to the specified targets. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
9
Gold 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Reversal Entry Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout 🩸Bullish Reversal - 3750 ➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority ➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected. The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size. Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation. 🔥 Tactical Note: We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention. The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Path_Of_Hanzo
8
Gold 1H – Should We Hold or Fade Liquidity at 3800?Gold on the 1H timeframe is trading near 3,776 within a corrective channel, with premium liquidity stacked above 3,800–3,798 and discount demand waiting at 3,725–3,727. Recent BOS structures confirm bullish intent, but engineered sweeps into premium zones remain likely before retracements to discount levels. Today’s headlines on the Federal Reserve’s cautious tone and Middle East geopolitical tensions are reinforcing safe-haven demand, though intraday moves may produce liquidity grabs before directional clarity emerges. ________________________________________ 📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H): • 🔴 SELL GOLD LIQUIDITY 3,800–3,798 (SL 3,807): Premium resistance where sweeps may trigger rejection toward 3,770 → 3,760 → 3,755. • 🟢 BUY ZONE 3,725–3,727 (SL 3,720): Discount demand aligned with BOS, offering upside targets at 3,740 → 3,760 → 3,775. ________________________________________ 📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based): 🔻 Sell Setup – Liquidity Run (3,800–3,798) • Entry: 3,800–3,798 • Stop Loss: 3,807 • Take Profits:  TP1: 3,770  TP2: 3,760  TP3: 3,755 🔺 Buy Setup – Discount Demand (3,725–3,727) • Entry: 3,725–3,727 • Stop Loss: 3,720 • Take Profits:  TP1: 3,740  TP2: 3,760  TP3: 3,775+ ________________________________________ 🔑 Strategy Note With Fed caution and geopolitical risks keeping gold supported, the broader structure favors buy-the-dip setups while fading engineered sweeps into premium liquidity. Expect volatility around 3,800 liquidity runs before retracements to well-defined discount zones.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ryan_TitanTrader
XAUUSD GOLD RESISTANCE 3775-3788 READ CAPTIONHi traders'. what do you think about gold Gold is currently trading near a strong resistance zone (3775 – 3788). Price has shown bearish rejection from this area, indicating selling pressure. If buyers fail to push above 3795 (risk level), sellers are likely to dominate. Downside targets align with support at 3751 and the demand zone at 3736. Stop loss above 3795 keeps the setup safe and controlled 🔹 Resistance Zone: 3775 – 3788 🔹 Risk Level (Stop Loss): Above 3795 TP1 3751 (support zone) 3736 (demand zone) ⚡ For educational purpose only, not financial advice 👉 Follow for more safe setups & daily analysis! ✅
TVC:GOLDShort
by haleh120
Gold (XAU/USD) - H1 technical analysis1. Overall Trend Gold is in a strong bullish trend after breaking out from the consolidation zone between 3,620–3,700 USD. The recent pullback is a healthy retracement, offering a potential low-risk buying opportunity before continuation toward the next resistance. 2. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Level 3,819–3,820;Resistance;Key swing high, potential take-profit zone Level 3,768–3,770;Immediate resistance;Recent high, minor supply area Level 3,745–3,750;Support;Previous breakout level, EMA alignment confirms short-term support Level 3,719–3,720;Strong support;EMA 200 H1 and previous consolidation base, crucial for trend continuation 3. Technical Indicators EMA H1 (9/21/50/200): All EMAs aligned bullishly, confirming strong upward momentum. Volume: Significant increase during the breakout from consolidation, showing strong buying pressure. Price Action: Current pullback may allow for a favorable long entry if bullish candlestick confirmation appears. 4. Trading Strategy Main Scenario – Trend Continuation (Bullish) Buy Entry: Around 3,765–3,770, preferably after confirming support with bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., pin bar, engulfing). Stop Loss: Below 3,745–3,750, aligned with breakout support and EMA cluster. Take Profit: First target at 3,819–3,820, next leg could extend higher if momentum continues. Alternative Scenario – Pullback Failure If price breaks below 3,745 and closes H1, wait for retest of support before considering any long positions. Conservative traders may scale out or tighten stops to protect capital. 5. Conclusion XAU/USD remains in a strong bullish trend on H1. The recent pullback around 3,765–3,770 provides a potential low-risk entry for trend continuation trades. Always trade with the trend, manage risk with proper stop losses, and scale profits at key resistance levels.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
5 target reached in my 2025 roadmap for goldWe set our target for gold on January 25th, and since then gold has reached our five target. We’re proud that we could forecast and observe the price moving away from the year’s lowest level. We also identified two additional levels for this year, around 4000 and 4200, which could act as resistance and potentially halt the current trend. Let’s examine the fundamentals and consider where global risks might be headed going forward.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by farzadzeraatkar
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1: Adjustment structure formed, awaiting confirmation below 3685 After a surge to 375x, gold is entering a correction phase, aligning with the structural pattern. On H1, the price is clinging to the upper edge of the rising wedge, with RSI cooling off from overbought territory, indicating a growing supply pressure. Today's plan focuses on the adjustment structure, prioritizing selling upon confirmation signals. Key price zones (refer to the attached chart) Sell strong resistance 3775–3785: confluence of channel peak + 2.618 extension. Look for weakening reactions to enter short/medium-term sell orders. Buy zone volume 3726–3720: a thin support area providing momentum for a rebound. Holding this zone could push prices to retest 3750–3775; conversely, losing 3720 may lead to a deeper decline. Resistance + FVG 3715–3698: as prices drop, this area turns into supply; a failed retest here is an early signal for further decline. Confirm sell 3688–3685: closing H1 below this zone confirms a short-term downtrend, targeting a lower buy zone. BuyZone 3652–3646: confluence of channel bottom + old liquidity, expecting a strong upward reaction if revisited. Trading scenarios for reference (adhere to risk management) Sell reaction at peak: 3778–3783, SL 3792, TP 3755 → 3738 → 3722. Sell upon confirmation: wait for H1 to close below 3685, enter sell 3684–3682, SL 3696, TP 3673 → 3656 → 3648. Buy scalp based on volume: 3726–3720, SL 3715, TP 3738 → 3750 (only short-term if the larger structure remains corrective). Buy swing at strong zone: 3652–3646, SL 3639, TP 3673 → 3698 → 3712 → 3740. Operational notes Prioritize waiting for rejection/closing signals at the mentioned zones; avoid chasing orders in between. Order volume should be allocated based on confirmation levels (confirmation zone < breakdown < failed retest). Avoid excessive leverage; adjust SL according to structure when in profit. This is a personal perspective, not investment advice. If you want the fastest updates on the next XAUUSD scenarios, follow me and join my community for discussions.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LiamTradingFX
XAUUSD Hits New Highs 👋Hello everyone, what do you think about OANDA:XAUUSD ? Yesterday, gold recorded a strong rally, surging to 3759 USD, an impressive gain of over 65 USD compared to the previous session, reaching our expected target. In the new trading session, gold has reached a new record high, driven by growing expectations of further Fed rate cuts and increasing demand for safe-haven assets amid political instability. Safe-haven flows are also being reinforced by prolonged geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, concerns over the economic impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and strong gold purchases by central banks. From a technical perspective, gold remains well above both the EMA 34 and EMA 89. Although the sharp increase has prompted some investors to take profits, I personally believe the uptrend is not over, as gold continues to be the top choice for preserving wealth. My target is 3800 USD in the near future. And you, what do you think about the trend of XAUUSD?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kevinn_Nguyen
29
XAUUSD 09/24 – Scenario after the Fed's Key SpeechXAUUSD 09/24 – Scenario after the Fed's Key Speech Hello everyone, Gold continues its consecutive upward momentum in recent sessions. Yesterday, the price touched the 1.618 Fibonacci level on the H4 chart and then pulled back, indicating a slight rejection right after the PMI news. Technical Perspective The Wolfe Waves structure remains intact, not yet broken. If the price returns inside the trendline, the signal confirming the Wolfe pattern will become clearer. Current key resistance zone: 3790 – 3825, coinciding with the 361.8 Fibonacci. Noteworthy short-term support zone: 3650 – 3647. Fundamental Perspective In yesterday's speech, Chairman Powell emphasized: “If monetary policy is loosened too quickly, efforts to curb inflation will fail.” This indicates that the Fed continues to prioritize price stability over the market's expectations for rate cuts. This is a factor to consider when trading gold in the current phase. Today's Trading Scenario Sell Setup Entry: 3825 – 3827 SL: 3833 TP: 3810 – 3790 – 3768 – 3755 Buy Setup Entry: 3650 – 3647 SL: 3642 TP: 3672 – 3688 – 3695 – 3710 – 3750 Summary In the short term, gold is in a correction phase after hitting resistance. Prioritize observing signals around 3790 – 3825 to find Sell opportunities, while the 3650 zone is a notable buying point for a recovery scenario. This is today's XAUUSD trading scenario according to the Wolfe Waves pattern. You can refer and adjust according to your personal strategy. Follow me for the latest analysis updates as the market changes. Wishing you successful trading!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
GOLD has all-round support, Fed, geopoliticsOn September 23, the OANDA:XAUUSD market experienced a “roller coaster”: initially soaring to a record $3,791/ounce in the European session, then cooling significantly when the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke. However, gold still closed higher than at the beginning of the day, showing that the big uptrend has not been shaken. As of the time of writing, gold has adjusted down slightly to $3,754/oz, equivalent to a decrease of 0.25% and about $10 on the day. What keeps gold “shining”? • Fed monetary policy: Powell stressed that the Fed must balance high inflation with a weakening job market. The Fed cut interest rates last week and the FedWatch tool shows a nearly 90% chance of further cuts in October. Lower interest rates make gold more attractive than bonds or savings. • Fed view: While Powell has been cautious, other officials such as Bowman have warned that the Fed may be “slowing down” and need to cut interest rates faster if the economy worsens. This further reinforces expectations that gold will benefit. • Hot geopolitics: NATO accused Russia of repeatedly violating the airspace of member countries, while Russia-Ukraine tensions were further complicated by the latest statement from former President Donald Trump. After meeting with President Zelensky, Trump unexpectedly strongly supported the possibility of Ukraine regaining all of its territory. This escalation of tensions has caused a sharp increase in safe-haven demand for gold. • Market demand: Commerzbank pointed out that in addition to interest rates, factors such as ETF capital flows, doubts about the independence of the Fed and global political risks are simultaneously pushing up gold prices. Fundamental Outlook: Investors are focusing on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, due later this week. If inflation continues to run hot, the Fed may be more cautious, but the pressure of US public debt and international instability remains a “golden support” for the price of this precious metal. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased by nearly 40%, the strongest pace since the late 1970s. With low interest rates, political risks and increased demand for shelter, the general trend still favors gold to maintain its “halo”. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD • Main trend: Gold price is still in the uptrend channel, each correction to the lower edge bounces up → buyers are in control. • MA line: Price is firmly above the EMA21 line, and the EMA21 is still pointing up → confirming the uptrend. The EMA plays a quite effective dynamic support role. • Important support: o Nearby: 3,720 – 3,738 USD (Fibo 0.236 zone + lower channel edge). o Stronger support: around 3,628 USD (Fibo 0 bottom). • Resistance – target above: o Nearby: 3,779 – 3,791 USD (Fibo 0.382 + previous candle high). o Next target: 3,825 USD (Fibo 0.5) → 3,872 USD (Fibo 0.618). If the breakout is successful, the possibility of advancing to the 3,939 USD zone is still open. • RSI & momentum: RSI is high, but has not yet fallen into extreme overbought. Momentum shows that there is still momentum, but there may be a pause (small pullback) before continuing to increase. • Candlestick structure: Recent candles have small bodies, narrow fluctuations → signs of market accumulation around the top. If the breakout is accompanied by liquidity, the possibility of further increase is very high. The current gold trend is still inclined to increase. As long as the price stays above the support zone of 3,720 - 3,738 USD, the prospect of conquering the 3,779 - 3,825 - 3,872 USD marks is completely feasible. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3826 - 3824⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3830 →Take Profit 1 3818 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3812 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3728 - 3730⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3724 →Take Profit 1 3736 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3742
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Gold Potential Reversal Ahead - Gold Sell OpportunityGold is currently trading around 3647 after making a strong bullish move. Price has reached near a weak high zone and is showing signs of exhaustion, which indicates a possible retracement. The immediate resistance at 3659 has created a weak high. If Gold fails to sustain above this level, sellers are likely to step in, pushing price down toward the levels at 3620 – 3604. A confirmed rejection candle around the sell zone will act as the sell trigger, with 3578 as a deeper bearish target if momentum increases. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch: - Resistance: 3687 – 3712 - Support: 3,628 - 3600 📌 Sell Zone & Sell Trigger: - Sell Zone: 3670 – 3685 area - Sell Trigger: A rejection candle or confirmation of failure to break above 3670 – 3685 zone. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh