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Gold/Silver Ratio AnalysisSince 2007, the Gold/Silver ratio has been moving in certain patterns. Although the ratio generally tends to rise, we can see significant volatile deviations from time to time. These deviations present us with good opportunities. We are currently experiencing one of these opportunities. The overall uptrend in the chart means that gold has generally outperformed silver. The sharp increases in 2008 and 2020 also point to periods when gold significantly outperformed silver. In 2010, the second half of 2020 and the period we are currently experiencing, silver has significantly outperformed gold, causing the chart to fall. But there is a common point in both periods. After every period of extreme volatility, the Gold/Silver ratio tends to converge towards the average. This will likely be no different now. So what does this indicate? As we all know, silver has gained significant momentum, pushing the Gold/Silver ratio up to 60. While there's a possibility the ratio could fall back to 50 in the coming months with continued momentum, a Hodrick Prescott filter shows a significant negative deviation from the normal average. This means that the time for convergence with the average is slowly approaching. So how will this convergence scenario unfold? In two ways: 1. Either silver won't experience a decline, but gold will rise significantly with buying pressure and momentum. 2. Or, while gold remains stable or continues its uptrend slightly, silver will fall significantly. I particularly think the scenario where silver falls due to profit-taking (and it's pretty overbought) more likely. During this period, gold may continue its gradual rise, which could bring the Gold/Silver ratio back into an overall trend free from volatility.
OANDA:XAUXAGLong
by YavuzAkbay
Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (NYSE) — Swing Trade Idea💰 BFH — Swing Trade Idea Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (NYSE) 🏢 Company Snapshot • Consumer finance and payments company (private-label credit cards, BNPL, loyalty solutions) • Matters now due to sustained relative strength in Financials and a clean trend resumption after a controlled pullback from highs 📊 Fundamental Context (Trade-Relevant Only) • Valuation: Discount to broader Financials on P/E, reflecting conservative expectations • Balance Sheet: Deleveraging trend post-spin, liquidity remains adequate • Cash Flow: Stable to improving with normalization in credit conditions • Dividend: Present but secondary to price action Fundamental Read: Fundamentals are not a catalyst but provide downside support while price leads the thesis. 🪙 Industry & Sector Backdrop • Short-Term (1–4 weeks): Financials showing rotation strength vs SPX • Medium-Term (1–6 months): Select consumer finance names outperforming on risk normalization • Macro Influence: Stable rates supportive for credit spreads Sector Bias: Bullish 📐 Technical Structure (Primary Driver) • Trend: Strong uptrend; price above rising 50-SMA and well above 200-SMA • Momentum: RSI(2) recently reset into oversold and is rebounding — classic mean-reversion within trend • Pattern: High-tight advance followed by orderly pullback into prior breakout zone • Volume: No heavy distribution; pullback volume lighter than advance Key Levels • Support: 73.50 – 74.00 (prior breakout + 50-SMA confluence) • Resistance: 78.80 – 79.20 (recent highs / measured continuation) 🎯 Trade Plan (Execution-Focused) • Entry: 73.80 – 74.30 (reaction buy at trend support) • Stop: 71.50 (loss of structure and 50-SMA invalidates) • Target: 79.10 (prior high / continuation objective) • Risk-to-Reward: ~2.6R Alternate Scenario: If price loses 74 on closing basis, stand aside and reassess near 70.50–71.00 (next demand + rising structure). 🧠 Swing Trader’s Bias Price remains in a controlled uptrend with RSI(2) resetting into support. I’m looking for a clean reaction off the 50-SMA to target prior highs for a ≥2R continuation swing. A decisive close below 71.50 invalidates the setup.
NYSE:BFHLong
by SwingTraderKev
1
TVTX - Breaks a 10-Year High – A New Chapter BeginsTVTX - CURRENT PRICE : 38.21 TVTX has made a major technical breakout by moving above its 10-year high at $37.04, a level last seen in August 2015. This move places the stock firmly into price discovery, meaning there is no nearby historical resistance overhead. Importantly, the breakout is holding, with the previous resistance now acting as strong support, a key sign of a healthy and sustainable uptrend. Looking back, the 24 December breakout can be viewed as an ascending triangle breakout, where price consistently made higher lows before finally pushing above resistance. This pattern often signals strong accumulation and continuation rather than a short-term spike. Trend indicators remain supportive, with price trading above the EMA 50 and above the Ichimoku Cloud, both pointing to a well-established bullish trend. From a price action perspective, the latest candlestick structure has formed a Bullish Harami based on Japanese candlestick analysis , suggesting selling pressure is fading and buyers may be preparing for the next move higher. As long as TVTX continues to hold above the former resistance zone and the EMA 50 on a daily closing basis, pullbacks are considered buy-on-dip opportunities. The next upside targets are $42 followed by $45, while a daily close below the EMA 50 would invalidate the bullish setup and serves as a cut-loss level. ENTRY PRICE : 38.21 FIRST TARGET : 42.00 SECOND TARGET : 45.00 SUPPORT : EMA 50 (Cutloss if price closed below EMA 50)
NASDAQ:TVTXLong
by IMRAN_96
Silver on the EdgeShort-Term Technical Analysis (Hours to Days) On the 1-hour timeframe, XAGUSD has entered a corrective consolidation phase after a strong bullish move. The current structure resembles a descending triangle / corrective wedge, with price holding above a key horizontal support around $70–71. The moving average (orange line) still acts as dynamic support, though its flattening slope indicates reduced short-term momentum. Bullish Short-Term Scenario: A confirmed breakout above $71.80–$72 and a break of the descending trendline could trigger a new bullish leg. Bearish Short-Term Scenario: A clean break and close below $70 would turn the consolidation into a bearish breakdown. Short-Term Target: $76–$78 Short-Term Stop-Loss: Close below $69.80 Long-Term Technical Analysis (Weeks to Months) From a broader perspective, silver remains in a strong bullish trend. The current pullback appears to be a healthy correction after a sharp rally. As long as price holds above the $68–69 support zone, the bullish structure remains intact. Bullish Long-Term Scenario: Holding key support and breaking recent highs could accelerate the bullish move. Bearish Long-Term Scenario: A breakdown below $68 would signal structural weakness and a deeper correction. Long-Term Target: $82–$85 Long-Term Stop-Loss: Below $66 Fundamental Analysis (Brief) Silver combines safe-haven characteristics with strong industrial demand: • High usage in solar energy, electronics, and EV industries • Positive correlation with inflation and loose monetary policy • High sensitivity to interest rates and USD strength Rate cuts or USD weakness often act as strong bullish catalysts for silver. Final Takeaway XAGUSD is at a critical inflection point: • Trendline breakout → bullish continuation • Support breakdown → deeper correction Waiting for confirmation is key at this level.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by isahebdadi
Is Vishnu Chemicals gearing for a breakout of its 15Y channel?TL;DR: The Double Breakout Alignment Vishnu Chemicals is currently exhibiting a rare confluence of multiple timeframes. We are seeing a) Macro : a 3.5Y pre-breakout channel buildup at the boundary of a massive 15-year ascending channel b) Medium term : within the aforementioned 3.5Y channel, we see a 6-month horizontal pre-breakout buildup occurring inside a 1.5-year horizontal range. When these "gears" align at a major resistance, the potential for a structural transition is at its peak. THE ANALYSIS We use a three-step top-down filter to determine if a stock has the necessary macro tailwinds before zooming into the technical "readiness" of the setup. Step 1: The "Forest to the Trees" Filter (Are there tailwinds) The Forest (Nifty 50): The broad market remains structurally robust, coiling near record highs and positioned for a potential Stage 1 (basing/accumulation) to Stage 2 (uptrend) breakout. The Trees (Chemical Sector): Selective chemicals are showing high relative strength as they transition out of multi-year bases. Conclusion: Market conditions are ripe to look for strong setups in quality chemical stocks Step 2: Big Picture Placement (Weinstein Stage Analysis) We use the Monthly chart to identify the stock's dominant long-term structures. The 15-Year Super-Channel: VISHNU has been operating within a dominant ascending channel stretching back to 2008. This macro structure acts as our primary roadmap. The 3.5-Year Coiling: Since 2022, the stock has been coiling in a secondary 3.5-year ascending channel. Crucially, this absorption has been occurring at the boundary of the 15-year macro range. This looks like a "prebreakout buildup" before price decisively leaves the macro channel behind. In stage analysis terms - it looks like a stock ready to break from a continuation pattern into strong uptrend (Stage 2) Step 3: Near-Term Structure & Signal (pre-breakout PA analysis) We zoom in on the price action of the last few years to gauge the "readiness" of the breakout. The 1.5-Year Range: Price has spent ~546 days in a horizontal range The 6-Month Pre-Breakout Buildup (PBO): A critical signal is the PA of the last 6 months - we see a tight buildup right at the ceiling of the 1.5-year range, and importantly, above an upsloping 20-month EMA. The 2-Month Squeeze: The last 2 months (Nov & Dec 2025) especially are very interesting - tight bodied "doji" candles & extremely low volumes. These 3 elements : a clearly defined range + prebreakout buildup + tightening squeeze - all make this a prime candidate for a potential breakout. Step 4: Key Fundamental Drivers Niche Monopoly: India’s largest and a top 4 global manufacturer of Chromium chemicals (~60% domestic market share). High entry barriers due to complex chemistry and environmental regulations. The "Jan 2026" Trigger: Completion of the South African Chrome Mine acquisition (scheduled for Jan 2026). This is a massive backward integration move that secures 30 years of raw material and insulates margins from volatile global ore prices. De-leveraging Success: A masterclass in debt management; Debt-to-Equity has plummeted from over 1.5 to ~0.25 in recent years. Earnings Momentum: Q2 FY2025-26 saw a 44% YoY surge in Net Profit, significantly outpacing revenue growth (~18%), proving that operational leverage is kicking in. The Gist: We are witnessing a 6-month squeeze inside a 1.5-year range, which is part of a 3.5-year coiling phase—all occurring at the boundary of a 15-year macro channel. When these "gears" align at a major resistance, the resulting resolution is typically powerful and structural. Timeframe: Monthly. Patience is key as this macro resolution unfolds. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market investments are subject to risk; please consult a SEBI-registered advisor and perform your own due diligence before making any decisions.
BSE:VISHNULong
by traderoogway
Gold (XAUUSD) Scalp: Rejection at the 0.618 Golden PocketOANDA:XAUUSD Since it is the end of 2025 and Gold has just come off its all-time highs near 4,550, this pullback to the 4,327 level is a major technical event. Here is a more aggressive, Scalping-focused TradingView post with a high Risk-to-Reward ratio: ⚡️ Gold (XAUUSD) Scalp: Rejection at the 0.618 Golden Pocket Current Market Context: Gold is ending 2025 with significant volatility. After hitting record highs, we are seeing a sharp corrective phase. The 4H chart shows price action stalling at the 4,330 - 4,350 zone, which perfectly aligns with the Fibonacci 0.618 "Golden Pocket" retracement. 🎯 The Setup (High Risk/Reward) * Strategy: Bearish Rejection Scalp * Timeframe: 4H (Confirmation on 15m/30m) * Entry Price: 4,327.00 - 4,332.00 * Stop Loss (SL): 4,355.00 (Tight SL just above the 0.618 Fib line) * Take Profit (TP): 4,240.00 (Major support target) * Risk-to-Reward Ratio: ~1:3.5 🔬 Technical Catalyst: * Fibonacci Resistance: The price failed to sustain above the 0.705 (4,365) level and is now breaking below the 0.5 (4,339) level. * Bearish Momentum: Looking at the bottom oscillator, the momentum is shifting negative (-33.33 value shown), indicating that sellers are regaining control for the New Year session. * Liquidity Gap: There is a clear "void" below 4,316. A break here could lead to a rapid flush towards the 4,280 psychological level. 🚦 Execution Plan: * Conservative: Wait for a 4H candle to close below 4,320 before entering. * Aggressive: Enter at current levels (4,327) with a stop at the recent swing high (4,355). Final Note for 2025: As we approach the market close, liquidity might be thin. Expect "wicky" price action. Manage your risk accordingly! #GoldScalp #XAUUSD #TradingStrategy #PriceAction #FibonacciTrading #2026Outlook
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LonaGoldHunter
BNB at a CrossroadsShort-Term Technical Analysis (Few days to 3 weeks) On the daily timeframe, BNB price is approaching a key resistance zone around $870–$880, where a descending moving average meets horizontal resistance. This area represents a critical decision point for price action. Bullish Short-Term Scenario: A daily close above $880 would signal strength and open the path toward higher resistance levels. Bearish Short-Term Scenario: Failure to break above $880 could trigger another pullback toward the ascending trendline and lower support zones. Short-Term Target: $950–$980 Short-Term Stop-Loss: Daily close below $840 Long-Term Technical Analysis (1–6 months) From a broader perspective, BNB is still trading within a range with a bullish bias. The ascending black trendline acts as a major dynamic support. As long as price stays above it, the long-term bullish structure remains valid. Bullish Long-Term Scenario: A confirmed breakout above $900 could start a new impulsive rally toward previous highs. Bearish Long-Term Scenario: A clean break below the ascending trendline would invalidate the bullish structure and signal deeper correction. Long-Term Target: $1050–$1100 Long-Term Stop-Loss: Below $800 Fundamental Analysis (Brief) BNB benefits from strong fundamentals: • Core utility within the Binance ecosystem • Regular BNB token burns reducing circulating supply • Expanding DeFi and Web3 adoption on BNB Chain However, regulatory pressure on Binance and overall crypto market conditions remain key risk factors. Final Takeaway BNB is sitting at a critical inflection zone. • Holding above resistance confirms bullish continuation • Rejection leads to another corrective phase Patience and confirmation are essential at this level.
CRYPTO:BNBUSDLong
by isahebdadi
Swing Trading (D1 / H4) – Trend Following + Mean Rever📈 Swing Trading Strategy (D1 / H4) XETR:MBG Trend Following with Controlled Pullback Entries 🧠 Core Concept This strategy is designed to trade in alignment with the dominant uptrend, entering positions after a healthy pullback toward fair value. The goal is to capture the next impulsive leg of the trend while keeping risk strictly predefined and asymmetric. ⏱ Timeframes Primary: Daily (D1) Confirmation / Timing: H4 🔧 Indicators Used EMA 20 / EMA 50 / EMA 200 – trend structure and dynamic support Weekly VWAP – fair value / institutional reference RSI (14) – trend strength and momentum filter Stochastic RSI (14,14,3,3) – entry timing OBV – volume confirmation (accumulation vs distribution) 🟢 Trend Filter (Mandatory) Only LONG positions are considered when all conditions are met: Price is above EMA 200 EMA 20 is above EMA 50 Market structure shows higher lows RSI (14) holds below 50 ➡️ If any of these conditions fail, no trade is taken. 🎯 Entry Conditions (BUY) A long position is considered after a pullback when: Price retraces toward EMA 20 / EMA 50 or Weekly VWAP Stochastic RSI resets from overbought and turns upward RSI (14) remains below 50 (trend intact) OBV does not make new lows, indicating no distribution ➡️ Entries are taken after bullish reaction, not blindly at levels. 🛑 Stop Loss (Risk Management – Important Note) Primary SL is placed below the local pullback low Structurally, SL remains below EMA 200 or key support 🎯 Take Profit Logic TP1: Previous local high / resistance TP2: Trend continuation target (approx. 1.5–2R) If price fails to move as expected within two weeks, the position is manually closed 📐 Position Management No averaging down No re-entry without a new pullback structure Trades are taken only when R:R ≥ 2:1 🚫 What This Strategy Avoids Choppy ranges and low-volatility consolidation Counter-trend trades Buying below EMA 200 Indicator-only decisions without structure 🧩 Strategy Profile Swing trading (several days up to ~2 weeks) Low trade frequency High selectivity
XETR:MBGLong
by dkusion2022
1
Zcash Poised for Next Move: Rally or Correction Ahead?Short-term Analysis (1–3 weeks): • Current Situation: Price stabilized around $530 after testing the 50-day MA. Key short-term support. • Bullish Scenario: Stabilization above $540 could push towards historical resistance at $700. • Bearish Scenario: Breaking support at $500 may trigger a drop to $420–450. Short-term Target: $700 Short-term Stop-loss: $500 Long-term Analysis (1–6 months): • Current Situation: Uptrend intact but with high volatility. Staying above 50-day MA supports long-term bullish trend. • Bullish Scenario: Break above $700 could lead to $900. • Bearish Scenario: Losing monthly MA support may push price to $350–370. Long-term Target: $900 Long-term Stop-loss: $350 Fundamental Summary: • Zcash is a privacy-focused cryptocurrency with growing adoption in wallets and institutions. • Tech adoption and network developments can drive bullish momentum. • Regulatory pressures and crypto market risks may cause high volatility. Summary : • Key Support: $500 (short-term), $350 (long-term) • Key Resistance: $700 (short-term), $900 (long-term) • Stabilization above $540 favors bullish continuation; otherwise, a corrective move is likely.
CRYPTO:ZECUSDLong
by isahebdadi
GE Aerospace – Daily ChartMarket Structure After a strong bullish trend, the stock experienced a V-shaped correction and rebounded back toward a key resistance zone. Price remains above the rising moving average, confirming that the primary trend is still bullish, but the current area is critical. Short-Term Outlook • Primary scenario: The 316–318 zone is a major resistance. Price reaction here will define the next move. • Key support: 300–295 zone, aligned with the moving average • Bullish short-term targets (on breakout): • 330 • 340 • Short-term stop loss: Daily close below 295 • Bearish alternative: Rejection from resistance may lead to a pullback toward 285–280 Mid / Long-Term Outlook • Trend: Bullish structure remains intact • Price logic: Recent move resembles a healthy pullback within a broader uptrend • Long-term targets: • First target: 350 • Extended target: 370 – 380 • Long-term invalidation: Weekly close below 280 Fundamental Summary • Strong exposure to aerospace and defense contracts • Benefiting from global defense spending growth • Long-term order backlog supports revenue stability • Cyclical sensitivity, but solid structural growth outlook
NYSE:GELong
by isahebdadi
Daily GOLD ChartGold remains in a strong bullish trend, currently consolidating inside an ascending channel. This phase represents a healthy correction, not a trend reversal. Price is still trading above the moving average, confirming bullish control. Short-Term Outlook • Primary scenario: Price is oscillating in the upper half of the channel. Pullbacks toward channel support are potential buy zones. • Key support zone: Channel support around 4,180 – 4,220 • Short-term target: Upper channel resistance at 4,550 – 4,600 • Short-term stop loss: Daily close below 4,120 • Bearish alternative: Breakdown of channel may trigger a deeper correction toward 4,000 – 4,050 Mid / Long-Term Outlook • Trend: Strong bullish structure (Higher Highs & Higher Lows) • Pattern logic: The current channel acts as a bullish continuation pattern • Long-term targets (on breakout): • First target: 4,700 • Extended target: 4,900 – 5,000 • Long-term invalidation / stop: Weekly close below 3,950 Fundamental Summary • Expectations of future interest rate cuts • Persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainty • Ongoing central bank gold accumulation • Periodic weakness in the US dollar Fundamentals remain strongly supportive for gold in the medium to long term.
TVC:GOLDLong
by isahebdadi
Prebreakout Buildup at a 4-Year Resistance: IPCA LaboratoriesTL;DR: The High-Conviction "Pre-Breakout Buildup & Squeeze" Setup IPCA Labs is currently edging towards the apex of a year-long pennant consolidation at a major 4-year resistance level. With both NIFTY and NIFTY Pharma indices looking bullishly poised, the odds favor bullish breakout in IPCA soon. Step 1: The "Forest to the Trees" Filter (Tailwinds) The Forest (Nifty 50): The broad market is structurally robust, coiling near record highs and positioned for a possible continuation breakout. The Trees (Nifty Pharma Index): The NIFTY Pharma index also looks good, positioned for a possible bullish breakout. Conclusion: Macro and sector tailwinds are firmly in place to support individual pharma breakouts. Step 2: Big Picture (Stan Weinstein Stage Analysis) The 4-Year Ceiling: The stock has been capped by a major horizontal resistance at ₹1380 since 2021. The Buildup Phase: An initial breakout attempt in late 2024 failed to sustain, leading to a year-long pennant-shaped continuation pattern. This oscillation has allowed the stock to absorb the multi-year overhead supply. The Stage: Having spent significant time basing and now coiling at range highs, IPCA is primed for a transition into a decisive Stage 2 Advance. Step 3: Execution Structure (Prebreakout PA Analysis) The Buildup: The last 12 months show a tightening "pennant" structure right at the key ₹1380 level - a classic sign of institutional absorption. Momentum Signal: November 2025 saw a strong bullish monthly bar breaking above the 20-Month EMA and the resistance level on high volume. The Prebreakout Squeeze: December 2025 is closing as a tight doji above the breakout level. This narrow-spread candle above the EMA/resistance is a "squeeze" that creates tension - and could resolve in an explosive move if bulls can push beyond the year-long pattern's boundary. Step 4: Fundamental Engine (The Notebook) Operational Turnaround: Q2 FY2026 saw robust profit growth of 23.13% YoY (₹282.57 Cr) and record quarterly revenue. Margin Expansion: Standalone EBITDA margins surged to 25.46%, a 257 bps improvement reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. API Surge: The API business is a major growth driver, with sales increasing 28% to ₹408 Cr in the most recent quarter. Valuation Gap: Currently trading at a P/B of ~4.9x. While higher than some peers, its ROA of ~7.3% and ROE of ~12.8% are trending upward as operational leverage kicks in. Financial Health: Maintains a very low debt-to-equity ratio of ~0.19 with an interest coverage ratio of 34.9x. Possible Entries: Aggressive: Within the current "squeeze" zone (₹1380–₹1470), as close to the 20-Month, or 20-Week EMA as possible. Important note for this entry - check how the monthly closes (in 2 days from now). If it closes somewhat like it looks now (a tight doji), then this entry would have decent odds. Conservative: On a decisive weekly close above the pennant's upper boundary. Invalidation of the setup: Bearish break & close below the pennant, or below the 20-month EMA (or 20-week EMA if following on weekly) Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market investments are subject to risk; please consult a SEBI-registered advisor before trading.
NSE:IPCALABLong
by traderoogway
Bitcoin 2 day death cross doom - December 2025At the end of each 4 year cycle (October 2025 being the last around $120k), price action is followed by a 2 day death cross. “But Ww the 4 year cycle is broken!! It does not apply anymore.” “This time is different Ww” Hold that thought… The previous 2 day death crosses are shown below (in addition to the December 2025 print above), after completion of the 4 year cycle. The same conditions repeat time after time: 1. A rise to market structure. 2. A confirmation of resistance, and following deep correction over the next two years. Here are the facts that followed each previous death cross: 1. Price action would see a further 60% correction after the cross and resistance confirmation. $30k it is then, should history repeat. 2. The length of each bear market increases roughly by a factor of 1.23, see 2 week chart below. 3. 938 days x 1.23 = 1153 days for the next bear market resistance breakout, should the death cross confirm. Downtrend does not reverse until February 2029! 2 week big picture chart - the increased length of each bear market You think this time is different? That’s cute. The next bear market is going to be beyond exhausting. Influencers you’ll notice are all talk of 2026 and the “money printer” nonsense. Each black vertical line on the 2 week chart below is a 2 day death cross print. Really, look left, tell me this time is different with a straight face. This big picture is more than just another death cross. A confirmation of this idea is also a confirmation of this idea: “ Bitcoin in multi year collapse back to $1k - December 2025 ” In the old days Ponzi schemes were often referred to as “pyramid schemes”, with new members of the scheme (or scam) recruiting new money. That’s all Bitcoin has ever done in its life, recruited new sources of money. The Boomer money via ETFs and Small to Medium sized businesses added 1% or so of their cash was never adoption, it was a punt, pure and simple. 5 month chart Previous 2 day death crosses: February 2022 July 2018 September 2014 Conclusions So here we are again, the 2 day death cross turns up right on cue. The little rally everyone calls "strength" because it helps them sleep at night. Think circa $100-102k ish if price decides to do the traditional "don't worry lads, I'm fine" routine. Then reality turn up. structure gets tested, resistance gets confirmed and suddenly the market remembers it's not a Disney film. "Deep correction becomes the main event" History says after confirmation the market tends to do the unthinkable... repeatedly.. for ages. If that pattern repeats, $30k isn't crazy, it's basically the punchline. Bear markets don't just hurt, they drag. If the bear length expands (need to view higher time frames to understand the 1.23 expansion better), then the next downtrend isn't a quick dip; it's a long, grey, joyless slog. The sort of thing that makes you nostalgic for inflation. And if this cross confirms, it's not just bearish.. . it's existential. Because it doesn't merely support "cycle top then unwind"... it also strengthens the broader "multi year collapse" narrative. The one people laugh at right up until they stop laughing. Everyone shouts "THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT", of course it is.. because hope is free and accountability is expensive. Influencers will keep promising 2026 will be glorious, the "money printer" will save us as the chart does what it always does: Humiliate certainty. So the take is simple: If resistance confirms after this cross, the probability shifts toward a long, grinding bear phase, the kind that makes even true believers quietly change the subject at the family dinner. If resistance does not a confirm, we then see a "short squeeze" event. But that's not growth or adoption, it's just a short squeeze of retail traders liquidating themselves as they have done throughout 2025. Either way the death cross has a high probability of playing out. Ww Disclaimer ========================================================== This is not financial advice. It’s market commentary with a side of sarcasm. I’m not your adviser. I’m not even your mate who “knows charts.” Technical analysis is pattern recognition, not prophecy. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it’s astrology for people who like spreadsheets. The sample size here is tiny. Three-ish comparable events is not a law of nature, it’s a vibe with a ruler. Crypto is volatile. You can lose some, most, or all of your money, and then still have to watch influencers call it a “healthy correction.” If you trade this, do your own research, manage risk, size positions like an adult, and accept responsibility for your decisions. In short: treat this as a theory, not a guarantee. And if your entire financial plan depends on “it has to go up because I want it to”… congratulations, you’re not investing, you’re praying.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by without_worries
18
JPM — Bullish Channel at Decision PointTechnical Overview • Price is moving inside a well-defined ascending channel • Currently testing the upper channel resistance • Trend remains bullish as long as price holds above the channel midline & SMA Bullish Scenario • Confirmation: Strong daily close above the channel top (~330) • Targets: • 345 • 360 • Stop-loss: 318 (back inside channel) Bearish / Pullback Scenario • Rejection from resistance may trigger a healthy correction • Downside zones: • 305 • 295 (lower channel support) • Invalidation of trend: Daily close below 295 Trend Bias • Short-term: Neutral → Bullish (breakout-dependent) • Mid / Long-term: Bullish while inside the ascending channel Fundamental Snapshot (Brief) • JPM remains the strongest U.S. bank fundamentally • Benefits from: • High interest rates • Strong balance sheet • Market leadership in investment & commercial banking • Fundamentally aligned with long-term bullish technical structure
NYSE:JPMLong
by isahebdadi
15
NIFTY: Reading the 10-week Silence Under ResistanceWhat I'm seeing: Tight, 'boring' consolidation under key resistance For the past 10 weeks, NIFTY price action has been "boring" on the surface. Week after week, price has been heading nowhere. Weekly candle ranges are tight without much action. But if we look at the structure a bit more carefully—it's actually quite interesting. What story is this silence in the price action telling? Let's try to read the story that NIFTY has been telling for the past few months: The Level: The last major high of around 26.4k was put in back in Sep '24. Since then, price has remained below this key level. The Approach: Price finally returned to this resistance in late Oct '25. The Reaction: One might have expected a strong sell-off given the history of this level. Instead, NIFTY is meandering in a tight range (25.5k - 26.5k) for 10 weeks and counting. This is a massive clue that supply is being absorbed. Pre-breakout structures: This is a classic example of a "pre-breakout structure." This is the pattern I like to see most on higher timeframes. Key Characteristics: Defined Resistance: The 26.3k–26.4k area is a clear ceiling. Higher Lows: We see a sequence of rising support—Aug '25, Sep '25, and early Nov '25. The Buildup: A tight "squeeze" near resistance and above the 20-week EMA. This coiling action often precedes an explosive move. What’s next? The way price action is shaping up, the odds for a bullish breakout are good within the next 1–3 months. Every tight weekly candle adds to the "squeeze." Note: Bulls must defend the 20W EMA. We may see one more "test" of this average before the breakout attempt begins in earnest. The Tradeable Setup: The PreBreakout Entry: Building a position within the buildup, as close to the 20W EMA as possible. The Breakout Entry: Waiting for a push above 26.4k (trigger), ensuring the entry isn't too far extended from the level. Invalidation Points: Aggressive: Prior swing low from early Nov at 25.4k. Conservative: Swing low from late Sep at 24.6k. Broader Market Context: The "North Star" Effect While this analysis is focused on NIFTY Index Futures, its implications are much wider. The NIFTY 50 acts as the "North Star" for the Indian stock market. The Tide Lifts All Boats: Bullish posturing in the NIFTY—and a successful breakout if/when it happens—provides the necessary "risk-on" environment for individual stocks to break out of their own bases. A Bullish Filter: When the index is coiling like this, it’s often the best time to build a "watchlist of strength." If the NIFTY resolves this consolidation to the upside, the stocks that have been holding up best will likely be the first to fly. Use the NIFTY's price action as your broad-market filter. A breakout here isn't just a trade for futures players; it’s a green light for the entire Indian equity space. Disclaimer This post is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading in the stock market involves significant risk. Please perform your own due diligence or consult with a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any trading decisions.
NSE:NIFTY1!Long
by traderoogway