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Microsoft (MSFT)

QS V3 Weekly Call Opportunity – MSFT Bullish TrendMSFT Weekly Signal | 2025-12-05 MSFT Weekly Call Option Direction: Buy Calls (Long / Bullish) Strike: $482.50 Entry Price: $5.62 – $5.70 Profit Target 1: $8.90 (≈60% gain) Profit Target 2: $11.20 (≈100% gain) Stop Loss: $3.90 (≈30% loss) Expiry: Dec 12, 2025 (7 days) Position Size: 2% of portfolio Confidence: 58% Rationale: Katy AI predicts upward trajectory to ~$497 by Friday; MACD bullish divergence suggests potential multi-day reversal. Risk Notes: High – Friday expiration with gamma effects; low VIX may reduce premium capture. Monitor actively.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by quantsignals
Microsoft: Overvalued but Still Bullish - Watching the 400–450Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT 1. Quick Trade Plan (for those who want levels first) 🎯 Market Bias: Long term bullish, but in a late phase of the cycle. Strategy: Don’t chase highs; buy the correction. 📌 Buy Zones Primary Buy Zone: 400–450 USD Strong support cluster and the preferred accumulation zone. Aggressive Early Entries: 450–470 on sharp dips, but main focus remains 400–450. ⛔ Invalidation Level 345 USD A break below this level invalidates the mid term bullish structure. 🎯 Take Profit Targets TP1: ~600 TP2: 680–720 Potential completion of the final fifth wave. 🧭 For Current Holders Continue holding while above 345. Use a protective stop below 345 if trading shares. Options traders may hedge instead. 🆕 For New Buyers Avoid entering near ATHs. Wait for the 400–450 pullback. Use 345 as your hard-risk level. 2. Fundamental Overview: Great Business, Clearly Overvalued 💼📊 Microsoft has delivered very stable mid-teens growth for years: Revenue growth: 15–17 percent annually EPS growth: also 15–20 percent annually Last 3 quarters: EPS +9–12 percent, revenue in the same range This is a mature mega-cap, not a hyper-growth name. ⚠️ Buybacks Stopped Company regularly bought back shares for six years Stopped in March 2023 and hasn’t resumed This removes a major EPS-boosting engine 📉 Valuation (Peter Lynch style) EPS growth ≈ 15 percent P/E ≈ 30 Stock trades at ~2x its fundamental fair value Conclusion: Amazing business. Predictable. Cash generative. 🔥 But fundamentally overpriced and in the late stage of its growth curve. 3. Technical Picture: Still Bullish, but Late in the Cycle 📐📈 📅 Long Term Channel Since 2010 Price has stayed inside a massive uptrend channel for 14+ years. As long as MSFT remains inside it, the primary trend stays bullish. 📏 200-Day Moving Average MSFT consistently bounces from the 200d MA on the weekly. That keeps the structural bull trend intact. 🌊 Elliott Wave Context Currently in the 5th sub-wave of a larger 3rd wave Upside still possible Potential final wave targets: 600–700 ⏳ What Comes After Once this major wave completes: Expect a multi-year sideways cycle (5–7 years) as the market distributes the massive positions accumulated since 2009. 4. Current Structure: A Correction Is Likely Before New Highs 🔄 We already saw an A–B–C correction, but structure suggests another A–B–C, forming a zigzag, before the final move higher. 🎯 Why 400–450 Is the Key Zone Major liquidity & support cluster Aligns with channel midline and prior consolidation Perfect area for a 5th wave launch If MSFT hits 400–450 and bounces → 600–700 is back on the table. 5. What To Do Based on Your Situation 🧭 ✔️ If You Already Hold MSFT Stay in the trade while above 345 Expect volatility You can hedge or use a stop below 345 🟦 If You Want to Enter Don’t FOMO near the highs ❌ Wait for a pullback into 400–450 Start with partial size, add on confirmation 345 = hard stop ⚡ If You Trade Short Term Shorts are counter-trend Treat every drop as a tactical move, not a macro reversal Unless 345 breaks 6. Final Thoughts ✨ Microsoft is still in a powerful long term uptrend, but: Fundamentally overvalued Technically late stage of its long cycle Likely to give a clean buyable correction Best accumulation zone: 400–450 Invalidation: 345 Upside targets: 600–700 It’s a “buy the dip, not the rip” market for MSFT. Not financial advice — manage risk according to your plan.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by sdk-trading
MSFT PullbackPattern Identified: Bearish Double Top pattern confirmed on Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) with neckline break and clear measured move objectives. Neckline Break Triggers Measured Move to Gap Fill. Key Confluence: First Top: Initial rejection Second Top: Failed breakout, lower high Neckline: Support connecting swing lows between tops Confirmation: Neckline break & retest completed Measured Move Calculation: TP1: Distance from highest top to neckline, projected onto the breakout zone = $430 TP2: Gap fill zone from May 1st, 2025 = $400 SL: Above Neckline at previous confirmation
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by diegochuw
Resurfacing fears of AI overinvestment triggered by MSFT A report claimed that Microsoft (MSFT) had lowered AI product sales growth targets across several divisions by as much as 50% for the current fiscal year, after many sales teams failed to meet targets for the fiscal year ending June 2025. Although MSFT swiftly denied the report, it reignited investor concerns about AI monetization and the risk of overinvestment. Adding to the unease, IBM CEO Krishna warned that even trillions of dollars invested in AI data centers cannot deliver meaningful returns under current cost structures, further fueling market anxiety. MSFT briefly tested the resistance at 493.00 before falling below EMA21. The price remains below bearish EMAs, indicating a potential downtrend continuation. If MSFT fails to close above EMA21, the price could retreat toward the following support at 465.00. Conversely, if MSFT breaches above EMA21 and 493.00, the price may advance toward the next resistance at 510.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by inkicho_exness
Microsoft (NASDAQ: $MSFT) Drops as AI Sales Miss Targets Microsoft (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSFT ) slid more than 2% after a report from The Information claimed that the company had reduced growth targets for its AI products because sales teams failed to meet expectations. The report highlighted that several Azure sales units missed ambitious quotas tied to Foundry—Microsoft’s enterprise AI platform used to build and manage autonomous AI agents. According to the report, less than 20% of salespeople in one U.S. Azure division hit the 50% Foundry growth target, while another team initially faced a quota requiring them to double sales. Microsoft quickly refuted the claims, stating that The Information conflated growth projections with internal quotas. The company emphasized that “aggregate sales quotas for AI products have not been lowered,” reaffirming the strength and ambition of its broader AI roadmap. Despite the clarification, the stock reacted sharply, reflecting heightened sensitivity around AI monetization as enterprise adoption continues to lag expectations. Although AI is transforming workflows and offering automation opportunities, the adoption curve for enterprise-scale AI agents remains slower compared to consumer AI breakthroughs. Competitors including Google, Amazon, Anthropic, Salesforce, and OpenAI all face similar challenges as traditional organizations navigate data integration, reliability issues, and operational risk. Technical Outlook From the chart, MSFT has pulled back sharply from its $555 resistance zone and is now retesting a key support level around $465. This area aligns with previous structure and may act as short-term demand. A breakdown below $465 opens room for a deeper decline toward the $450 level. However, holding this support could trigger a rebound back toward the $555 region. Momentum remains neutral-bearish, with price sitting below the recent swing highs.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by DEXWireNews
Microsoft: Target Zone Hit!Microsoft has reached our green Long Target Zone between $451.84 and $477.87 as anticipated. In the meantime, the stock has successfully completed the magenta wave (4) and has since broken out of the Target Zone to the upside. We now expect further gains as wave (5) unfolds, targeting a move above the resistance at $562.17, where the larger blue wave (I) is expected to conclude. After that, we anticipate a pronounced correction phase. However, there remains a 38% chance that MSFT could break down through the Target Zone and fall below the support at $392.97. In this case, we would reclassify the last significant high at $562.17 as the top of the beige wave alt.III and prepare for a new low in wave alt.IV .
NASDAQ:MSFT
by HKCM_Global
PERFECT MSFT SHORTWe have a really strong timeframe alignment on NASDAQ:MSFT , presenting us with a great shorting opportunity. Weekly If we start top down from the weekly, MSFT had a strong and fast rally but has faced strong rejection on the upper side of its long term upward channel. Price may now look to retrace to its previous long-term swing high after this rejection. We also see volatility constriction through Bollinger Bands, indicating potential for large price moves and volume to occur soon. Daily On the daily chart we see a strong rejection of the daily 50 ema and resistive levels after a downside breakout. Hourly For the entry on the 1hr timeframe we are looking at a large head and shoulder formation, with a trend rejection and a strong rejection of the 1hr 100ema. I am targeting the previous long-term swing high at 470 as my singular TP. Goodluck-nfa.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Euan7rTrader
MSFT — Bullish Structure Intact Above 373.22, Targeting 739.88.Microsoft remains in a well-defined long-term bullish structure despite the current pullback from the 0.40–0.50 Fibonacci resistance cluster. The recent decline appears corrective in nature and does not signal any structural weakness as long as the stock preserves its main support foundation. Key Support (Primary Structural Level): 373.22 The level at 373.22 represents the most critical demand zone on the chart. It marks: The origin of the previous bullish impulse, A zone of strong institutional accumulation, The base that continues to anchor the long-term trend. As long as price stays above 373.22, the broader upward cycle remains intact. Fibonacci Expansion Targets (Long-Term Investor Levels) The current impulsive leg projects the following upside targets: 483.97 (0.333) 509.67 (0.40) 548.04 (0.50) 593.32 (0.618) 643.96 (0.75) 701.51 (0.90) 739.88 (1.00 — primary long-term extension) These levels correspond to strategic zones where institutional models anticipate consolidation or profit-taking. Market Structure & Investor Outlook The long-term trend remains strongly bullish. The current pullback is normal retracement behavior. Secondary demand pockets sit at 446.75 and 413.75 if the pullback deepens. Macro structure remains fully intact above 373.22. Bullish Continuation Scenario (Base Case) If MSFT holds above 483.97 and regains momentum, the price can progress through: 509 → 548 → 593 → 643 → 701 → 739.88 This represents the natural continuation path of the current expansion. Bearish Scenario (Limited & Non-Structural) The only valid bearish scenario for now is a return to retest the key support at 373.22. This move would represent: A technical retest, A liquidity sweep, A refresh of institutional demand, not a trend reversal As long as price holds 373.22, the long-term bullish structure remains unchanged. Conclusion Microsoft continues to demonstrate strong long-term structural integrity. The only bearish possibility is a corrective move back toward the 373.22 support, after which the broader trend is expected to resume toward the long-term targets: 509, 548, 593, 643, 701, and 739.88.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by adham2022
Why is Microsoft Stock $MSFT dropping hard?Microsoft just did what every impatient trader hates… after a massive rally, the candles are shrinking, emotions are rising, and here comes the correction everyone said ‘couldn’t happen.’ Today I’ll show you—using pure supply and demand—why MSFT is being magnetically pulled back into the monthly demand imbalance like a toddler to a candy shop. No fundamentals, no drama… just price action, imbalances, and patience. Let’s dive in. Microsoft Monthly Supply & Demand Analysis After Apple’s strong monthly correction setup, Microsoft (MSFT) is showing the exact same pattern — but even cleaner. This is what I love when I teach traders to learn to trade stocks using pure price action and supply and demand imbalances. You don’t need news, earnings, or any guru opinion — everything is already priced in at the higher timeframes. Just like I explained in the Supply and Demand Free Course , the bigger timeframes tell you what the professionals already did months ago. Let’s break it down. Candles Shrinking = Momentum Weakening Fast-forward to mid/late 2025: - The wide-bodied candles disappeared - Small-bodied candles appeared - Then came the big bearish candle This is classic momentum decay. This is exactly when most traders start acting emotionally: - They zoom into 5-minute charts - Their IQ drops by 50 points - They forget the trend - They forget the imbalance - They become chart zombies But price action never lies — we’re simply seeing exhaustion after a massive markup.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by AlfonsoMoreno
MSFT Selling Pressure Activated — Time to Short!🔥 MSFT Bearish Profit Playbook — Thief-Style Layer Attack Activated! 🔥 Asset: MSFT — Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ) Style: Swing / Day-Trade Playbook 📉💼 📉 Plan: Bearish Pressure Play — Smart Sell-Side Thief Approach Microsoft is showing potential exhaustion on the upside, and this setup focuses on a structured bearish move using a layered sell-limit strategy (Thief Layer Method) 😎🕵️‍♂️. 🎯 Entry Strategy (Thief Layer Method) Using the thief-style multi-layer approach, we stack multiple sell-limit orders at different levels to catch premium liquidity: Sell Limit Layers: $500, $490, $480 (You can increase or adjust layers based on your own risk tolerance.) This method aims to fade upward pushes, catching price exhaustion during liquidity grabs. 🛑 Stop Loss (Risk Control) This is the Thief SL @ $510 🛑 Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I’m not recommending that you use only my stop-loss. It’s your money — your rules. Manage your risk like a pro. 💼⚠️ 🎯 Target (Exit Zones) We are aiming toward strong support zones + potential oversold zones where bearish momentum may slow. Main Target: $450 Trap may form — escape with profits before the market police catch us 🚓💨 Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I’m not recommending using only my target. Exit where you feel safe and profitable. 🏦✨ 📊 Market Summary (Clean, TV-Safe Explanation) Bearish attempt based on overextended zones Layered entries help clip premium during upside wicks Targeting liquidity pockets near support SL above structural invalidation Setup respects TradingView House Rules: No financial advice, no promises, no signals, educational thief-style humor only ✔️ 🔗 Related Pairs to Watch (Correlation Insights) Because MSFT is a heavyweight in tech + NASDAQ index weighting: 1️⃣ NASDAQ:QQQ (NASDAQ 100 ETF) Strongly correlated If QQQ rejects from local resistance → MSFT bearish play strengthened QQQ weakness = tech sector weakness 2️⃣ AMEX:SPY (S&P500 ETF) Broader market risk sentiment SPY pullback often pressures mega-caps like MSFT 3️⃣ NASDAQ:AAPL (Apple Inc.) Moves similarly during liquidity rotations Apple weakness = added pressure to mega-cap tech basket 4️⃣ NASDAQ:NVDA (Nvidia Corp.) High-beta tech name When NVDA loses momentum, MSFT downside probability increases through sector rotation 5️⃣ NASDAQ:GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.) If large-cap tech corrects collectively, MSFT rarely moves opposite Perfect correlation watch ⚡ Watching these pairs helps confirm bearish bias through sector-wide confirmation, not isolated signals. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a thief-style trading strategy just for fun. Educational only — not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. 😄🕵️‍♂️
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by The-Thief
MSFT WARNING!Here is a closer view of the chart I posted back on Oct 5, 2024, for a nice profitable -25% drawdown. This time will be far more profitable. Here is a breakdown of the chart. - Up against a 38-year trendline. - A rare 5-wave rising wedge. - A H & S with a head test - Big Ass Gap Below - Double top M pattern that CRACKED! - Rising Bearish Wedge. This is just getting started! Bulls, if you didn't make your money in MSFT yet and are trying to squeeze a little bit more profits bc you are too damn greedy. Then you deserve what you get next. THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥 Let’s keep climbing. If you enjoy the work: 👉 Boost 👉 Follow 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by RealMacro
1
MSFT: Final Dip Before the Next LeapPrevious Idea: Microsoft (MSFT) shows the stock is enduring a significant correction, which is the final pullback before a massive rally. This phase, labeled wave (4), is expected to find its bottom within a key support area. Traders are looking for this downswing to complete anywhere between the $452 and $492 zones. Hitting this target range would conclude the current multi-month drop and clear the path for the next major advance. Once the correction successfully bottoms out in that crucial support range, the market expects a powerful final bullish surge, known as wave (5), to begin. This next wave is projected to drive the stock significantly higher, easily surpassing the previous all-time high of $555.45 . This bullish scenario will remain valid as long as the stock respects the identified support zone and begins its ascent from that area.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Money_Dictators
1
Microsoft: Stuck in Sideways PatternMicrosoft shares have continued to show weakness recently, although the stock has shifted into more of a sideways pattern. In the near term, we anticipate another downward move, which should establish the low for wave (4) in magenta within our green Target Zone between $477.87 and $451.84. From our perspective, this range remains attractive for long entries, as we expect a new upward impulse to follow as part of magenta wave (5). This move should push the stock above resistance at $562.17 and complete the larger blue wave (I). Alternatively, there is a scenario in which the high at $562.17 marks the end of beige wave alt.III (probability: 36%). In that case, we would expect a substantial decline below support at $392.97, where the low of wave alt.IV would be found.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by HKCM_Global
Lucky FOREX Analysis (November 17th-21st 2025)In this week i talked bout EUR/USD AUD/NZD BTC AUD/USD S&P500 AMZN MSFT Welcome to our weekly market breakdown — get ready for actionable forex insights to guide you through the week ahead. In this episode we cover: 🔍 Major currency pairs and key support/resistance levels 🧲 Trend analysis: where the momentum is shifting and what may be driving it 📆 Economic events to watch (interest rate decisions, inflation releases, central-bank commentary) 🛠️ Trade setups: potential entries, stop-loss zones & profit targets 🎯 Risk management tips: how to approach the week with discipline Whether you’re a day trader, swing trader or simply keen to stay ahead of the curve, you’ll find value in this edition. 🔔 Remember: Markets move fast. Use this analysis as one part of your trading decision process—not the whole. Always perform your own due diligence and manage your risk carefully.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by MartketsTitan
S&P At The End Of The Trend?Seems like on the weekly and monthly charts, the S&P has completed a 5 wave Elliott which started in fall 2022, exactly 3 years ago. The indicators also seem getting weaker on both time frames. Probably there is a distribution going on. Everybody you see is talking about a recession in 2026, mostly towards the middle of the year and we will have a Christmas rally this year. Well, by now we have learned that if everybody is expecting something to happen, either it doesn’t happen or it happens earlier . We’ll see because nobody knows the future. Though, as I see, most people now are in the mood that every fall is a buying opportunity and “this time it’s different” with ai. So many cocky opinions flying around. Maybe this time it’s different but for now, I am thinking that we will have a 3 wave Elliott downwards. Actually, I didn’t like the sentiment that is going around. We’ll see if we will wear our shorts in winter.
TVC:SPXShort
by erdem_bilgin
3