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Microsoft (MSFT)

20% to 40% Dip Coming for Microsoft?DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational & entertainment purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to be involved with this market. Trading involves significant risk, do your own due diligence. A concerning sign for Microsoft bulls triggered a few weeks ago. We saw the DPO divergence confirmed. Price targets to the downside of this confirmation imply a 20% to 40% dip is coming for Microsoft. Do you think Microsoft is heading for a dump? I do. See you down there.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Tradius_Trades
Microsoft seem to have made intermittent top. Look for reversalNASDAQ:MSFT has fallen in 5 waved from the top made in July and in process of retracing that down-move in ABC. The fall from top could be either a larger degree wave 1 or wave A. In both cases, soon wave 3 or C down should start since the wave 2/B has completed 61.8% retracement which is at 436.73. Stock closed below that level yesterday which makes me wonder if the down-move in wave 3/C has begun already. Assuming down-move has started, we should head towards 364 as per wave equality (3=1 or A=C), though if economic macros stay recessionary then the move could stretch to 1.6 or 2.6 times the size of wave 1/A (in log).
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by YetAnotherTA
Microsoft Announces $60 Billion Buyback and Dividend HikeMicrosoft Corp. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSFT ) recently announced two major moves designed to bolster shareholder value and solidify its position as a leading tech giant. The company unveiled a $60 billion stock buyback program along with a 10% increase in its quarterly dividend. This announcement has sent positive waves through the market, and investors are keeping a close eye on what this means for Microsoft's long-term outlook, especially amid its aggressive investments in artificial intelligence (AI). The $60 Billion Buyback: Strategic Capital Allocation On Monday, Microsoft revealed plans to repurchase up to $60 billion of its stock. While this figure may seem colossal, it represents less than 2% of the company's market cap, which currently stands at a staggering $3.2 trillion. Buybacks are a strategic way for companies like Microsoft to return capital to shareholders, reduce the number of shares outstanding, and increase earnings per share (EPS). The buyback plan can be canceled at any time, signaling flexibility in Microsoft's strategy to navigate market conditions. The announcement comes at a critical time when investors are pressuring the company to show returns on its heavy spending in AI development, particularly through its flagship product, the Copilot AI assistant, and other AI-driven tools. ### Dividend Hike: Rewarding Loyal Shareholders In addition to the stock buyback, Microsoft also announced a 10% hike in its quarterly dividend, raising it by 8 cents to 83 cents per share. This marks the 20th consecutive year the tech behemoth has increased its dividend, a testament to its commitment to rewarding long-term investors. The higher dividend will be payable on Dec. 12, 2024, to shareholders of record as of Nov. 21. The steady rise in dividend payments is indicative of Microsoft’s robust financial health. As it continues to post consistent earnings, the dividend increase signals confidence in sustained cash flow generation, even as the company allocates substantial capital toward AI infrastructure. A Focus on AI Investments The timing of the buyback and dividend announcement coincides with Microsoft's unveiling of several new AI features. During its recent "Wave 2" event, Microsoft introduced updates to its Copilot AI, including enhancements in Excel, OneDrive, and Outlook. These AI-driven tools are part of the company’s broader push to integrate advanced machine learning and AI capabilities into its suite of products, driving future growth. Jefferies analysts have described Microsoft as a "top AI beneficiary," citing strong adoption rates of its Copilot features and improvements in user experience. This aligns with the company’s focus on using AI as a growth driver, especially as demand for AI outpaces the company’s capacity to deliver. Stock Performance and Technical Outlook Microsoft stock has been on an upward trajectory, rising 15% year-to-date, and showing consistent strength over the past year. On Tuesday, NASDAQ:MSFT surged 1.66%, buoyed by the announcement, and continues to hold investor confidence. Technically, Microsoft’s stock sits at an RSI of 66, indicating bullish momentum. This level is approaching overbought territory but still suggests room for continued growth, especially as Jerome Powell’s much-anticipated speech on rate cuts approaches. The stock’s resilience is evident as it has managed to retake all its moving averages and break past a 426.79 short-term high, a level seen as critical resistance. Moreover, Microsoft has been in a steady upward trend since September 2023, maintaining consistent gains month-over-month. This steady performance is a signal of both investor confidence and the company’s ability to deliver, even amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Conclusion: Microsoft’s latest financial moves—both the $60 billion buyback and the dividend hike—demonstrate its ability to reward investors while continuing to focus on long-term growth. As it positions itself as a leader in AI, Microsoft’s ongoing investments are expected to pay off significantly in the years ahead. With a solid balance sheet, growing dividends, and continued stock buybacks, Microsoft’s outlook remains strong. While some volatility may lie ahead due to macroeconomic factors, the combination of smart capital allocation and a focus on next-gen technology like AI puts Microsoft in a prime position to continue its upward trajectory in both stock price and market influence. Investors looking for long-term stability combined with growth potential should keep Microsoft on their radar as it navigates the evolving tech landscape.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by DEXWireNews
Microsoft - Correction Is Not Over Yet!Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) can still drop a little lower: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 It seems like the correction on Microsoft is not over yet and following previous price action and market structure, a move back to the previous triangle breakout level seems to be quite likely. However Microsoft still remains in an overall bullish market so looking for long setups is best. Levels to watch: $350 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
MSFT has room to the daily 50 SMA.NASDAQ:MSFT daily chart shows consolidation just below the daily 50 and 65 EMAs. If MSFT can confirm this daily supply to the upside, there is significant space on the chart up to the daily 50 SMA, which gives this trade a large measured potential. Many NASDAQ:QQQ names have reclaimed their daily 50 SMAs, and as long as the index continues to build above its daily 50 SMA, MSFT is likely to catch up. As MSFT is a thinner name, this trade will be more likely to work during the morning trading session when liquidity is higher.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by DMT_Doctor
$MSFT Head and Shoulders Pattern in Formation?NASDAQ:MSFT Technical Analysis of MSFT: Head and Shoulders Pattern in Formation Currently, the support established around $390 might be forming the neckline of a potential head and shoulders pattern. To complete this pattern, the right shoulder still needs to form. Key point to watch: if the right shoulder develops below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, projected at $436, it could signal a bearish move. A confirmed break of the $390 support would then be expected to trigger a downward move towards the potential target of $310. Summary: Current Support/Neckline Level: $390 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level: $436 Watch for Right Shoulder Formation Below $436 Potential Downward Target: $310 Monitor for the formation of the right shoulder and a potential break of support to validate the bearish outlook.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Andre_Cardoso
MICROSOFT Targeting $500 before the end of the year.Microsoft (MSFT) has made a new long-term bottom and recovered almost all of August's losses. That bottom is technically the Higher Low of the 20-month Channel Up that started in January 2023. The price is currently consolidating below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and if broken, it will confirm the new Bullish Leg. In the previous (2) Bullish Legs of this Channel Up, the price tends to re-test the 1D MA50/100 cluster to confirm it as the new long-term Support after the break-out, so expect that to take place at some point. Having though formed a new 1D MACD Bullish Cross, we can assume that this is already a safe level to buy for the long-term, as every Bullish Cross below 0.0 has technically been a confirmed buy level. Our Target for the end of the year is $500, which is still technically a 'modest' one as it is considerably below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which priced the March Higher High. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by TradingShot
4
Microsoft Recovers 10% From Market Correction!Berkshire Hathaway has significantly cut its Apple investment, selling 505 million shares—a 55.8% reduction. This move reflects a major shift in its investment strategy, despite an 800% gain in its Apple shares since 2016. The decision is influenced by multiple market factors, including a slowdown in Apple's revenue growth and a significant drop in smartphone demand, particularly impacted by shrinking markets in China and ongoing legal challenges, such as a U.S. Department of Justice antitrust lawsuit. Despite these hurdles, Apple is pushing innovation, venturing into artificial intelligence and satellite connectivity, which could strengthen its market position and open new revenue streams. Meanwhile, Apple's stock, after peaking at $237 in July and dropping to $200, has begun to recover, rising 10% since a post-earnings dip in early August, with a 12% year-to-date increase. This volatility underscores the need for investor patience, given Apple's trend of prolonged growth phases interspersed with flat periods.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by Sublime_Trading
Is MSFT Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?MSFT is one of the few tech stocks which trades close to all-time highs, seemingly oblivious to the brutal valuation reset that swept through the sector In the most recent quarter, MSFT delivered strong results when factoring in the tough macro environment. MSFT grew revenues by 7% (10% constant currency) and earnings per share by 10% (14% constant currency) - two achievements not necessarily typically seen under difficult economic circumstances. MSFT generated $8.64 billion of that operating income from its productivity and business processes segment, which houses its Office 365 product suite among others. As to be expected, LinkedIn revenue growth came in light at just 8%, a reflection of lower hiring demand. MSFT generated another $9.4 billion in operating income from its intelligent cloud segment. Azure grew at a 27% clip, far surpassing the 16% growth seen at competitor Amazon Web Services Investors have been cautious on the ever-valuable cloud business ever since the cloud titans all revealed cloud optimization efforts undertaken by its customers. On the conference call, management implied that they may see easing headwinds as they pass the anniversary of those optimization efforts, stating that “at some point, workloads just can't be optimized much further.” It is possible that MSFT’s partnership with ChatGPT’s creator OpenAI has something to do with that, as management noted that while they do not consolidate any operating losses due to them holding a minority equity interest, they do indeed recognize revenues generated from OpenAI using their cloud services. The other cloud titans did not offer the same bullish commentary surrounding the end of cloud optimization. MSFT continued to see headwinds from its more personal computing segment, which saw revenues decline by 9% though still managed to generate $4.24 billion in operating income. At some point the comps should become easier here, but that may still be a couple of quarters away. MSFT ended the quarter with $104.5 billion in cash versus $48.2 billion in debt. I note that the company also has another $9.4 billion in equity investments (the announced $10 billion investment in OpenAI is set to take place in parts throughout the year). The company continues to pay a growing dividend and conducted $5.5 billion in share repurchases in the quarter. It is not too often that one can get long term innovation and have the majority of free cash flow returned to shareholders as well. Looking ahead, management has noted that overall growth may struggle due to the prior year’s quarter being a tough comp, with that being their “largest commercial bookings quarter ever with a material volume of large multiyear commitments.” Management did, however, guide for up to 27% in Azure growth, which seems to imply that the bottom for that segment may be very near if not already passed. Investors may be worried about how ongoing tech layoffs may impact Office 365 growth, but management appeared unfazed by this risk, citing that they continue to see strong demand for their product suites. MSFT continues to show why it is a favorite tech stock in growth allocations, as it has shown resilient growth in the face of tough macro. The strong fundamentals have helped the stock sustain a premium valuation multiple, as the stock recently traded hands at just under 35x earnings. Valuation remains the most obvious risk with that stock trading something between 50% and 100% higher than GOOGL depending on how many adjustments applied to the latter. With the stock trading so richly on present earnings, the stock could go nowhere for 7-10 years and still be trading at around 15x earnings at that time. Unless MSFT manages to sustain double-digit earnings longer than consensus, the stock will likely need to sustain a rich multiple in order to beat the market index. I note that this risk does not appear as large at the aforementioned mega-cap peers due to not just lower valuations but also due to MSFT appearing to already be operationally efficient with operating margins in excess of 40%. Another risk is that of potential disruption to its enterprise tech business. Wall Street appears to view the stock as being the strongest operator in any of its competing markets, but I do not share such views. In particular, I view competition from the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD),and GOOGL’s productivity suite as being underestimated risks. It is possible that MSFT is about to face long- term disruption just as its growth story is decelerating - which would have a catastrophic impact on multiples. Due to the near term upside from OpenAI, MSFT hit ATH and now its in pullback mode, I took huge profit and waiting for more confirmation
NASDAQ:MSFT
by moonypto
2