ChrisPulver

14:26

ChrisPulver

FED cut 50 bps today (as CME FED Watch Tool predicted), but it was one of the closer toss-up probabilities at 55% to 45% odds. Today's 50 bps leaves room for more to come and the market is anticipating 10 cuts in 11 FOMC meetings out through 2025. The market's resilience has been impressive, but until the market is satisfied with more "good news" on employment,...

21:42

ChrisPulver

All major indexes and broad market advancing today with the US CPI/PPI combo causing some big recoveries since the post Labor Day selloff. Momentum goes to the bulls for now until price proves otherwise. FED likely to cut 25 bps next week with more to come by end of year. It's amazing how quickly sentiment can shift like it did with Aug 1-5 and after, and again...

30:43

ChrisPulver

The "September Effect" is in full bloom as the markets are down 4-5% from September's first trading week. 10 year average for September is -.9% 70 year average for September is -.7% We may see high volatility all over again with Aug 5 lows being threatened, or we may see the risk off tone has been front loaded and next week is all about inflation with US CPI/PPI...

10:25

ChrisPulver

Tuesday - Bear Candle breaking support Wednesday - weak re-test of the support (now becoming resistance) Bearish pressure remains firm with key levels lower on the major indexes. Near-term bearish until price proves otherwise. Taking stops, protecting profits and managing hedges. JPY "unwinding" is also back on the radar. I'll be watching the JPY strength and...

16:46

ChrisPulver

Summer trading is officially done and the market will be news sensitive leading up to the big bad FOMC Rate Decision on September 18. August's monthly candle is a wild one with a massive wick to the south and the bulls pushed the SPY within a whisker of all-time highs, Dow to several all-time highs, Nasdaq into a nice bullish recovery posture, and Russell the...

20:38

ChrisPulver

A nice alignment comparing SPX, NDX, RUT with the Fed Funds Rate showing when the FED raises rates and cuts rates and how it impacts the indexes. 1995 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher 1998 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher 2001 Cut Cycle - S&P Lower 2007 Cut Cycle - S&P Lower 2019 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher (but after 30-40% COVID Crash) Nobody knows how this cycle will impact current...

27:04

ChrisPulver

Thanks for checking out the video today. It was a reasonably nice selloff today, led mostly by the Mag 7 stocks. All US Indexes were in red, Nasdaq taking the worst of it around -1.60% lower. Powell on tap for Friday with Day 2 at Jackson Hole. The market is oh so curious if the FED will cut 25 or 50 bps in September and we have plenty of news to digest prior to...

19:00

ChrisPulver

I reviewed an interesting study Tuesday about V bottoms. Over 20 years of data showing the average "V Bottom" takes nearly 1 year to come back and get into positive territory. The fact that all US Indexes and many stocks have done this in 10-15 trading trades is pretty remarkable. Will we more path of least resistance at all-time highs or will we see resistance...

22:03

ChrisPulver

It's as if the markets couldn't wait to open on Monday and continue what they've been doing for 9 of 11 trading days - push higher. S&P +.96% Nasdaq +1.31% Dow +.58% Russell 1.22% For a Monday, it was a pretty directional day. Wed-Fri is when the US news hits (FOMC Minutes, PMI, Jackson Hole, Powell Speech) so let's see if the party bus continues to rock until...

16:08

ChrisPulver

S&P pulled back 78% of the fall Nasdaq pulled back 61% of the fall Dow pulled back 78% of the fall IWM pulled back 50% of the fall Impressive rips for 2 weeks of trading for the "buy the dip" community. This week's direction was steady in futures, and gaps higher in indexes from opening to closing bell. I'm keeping the charts as clean and simple as possible....

23:36

ChrisPulver

Monday - UP Tuesday - UP Wednesday - UP Thursday - UP SPY has put together 2 weeks with 20+ points from low to high eclipsing the averaging 14/15 point average true range for the week - it really is wild stuff!!! I try to make some sense of everything today with an inverse cup & handle pattern on the SPY/SPX/ES levels. I dive into September/October seasonality...

19:39

ChrisPulver

3 straight weeks of setting from mid-July crescendos with a crash August 2. But the "crash" was met with a vicious buying spree that now places the major index 50% of so from the large high to low swing. In this video, I breakdown the technicals and scenarios trying to make some sense of where we could be heading. We are mostly through Q2 earnings. PPI and CPI...

29:47

ChrisPulver

Many traders were looking for answers this week. What just happened? The quick summary is the JPY carry trade was quickly unwinding and as the Nikkei 225 was dumping with the largest 2 day move (EVER) the JPY volatility increased. On top of that, the FED didn't cut rates in July (as expected) and elected to punt to September (with likely 25 bps cut forecasted)....

22:44

ChrisPulver

During Monday's open, I said this is going to be a day for the history books. Volatility expanded nearly 200% on the day (over 300% in a 3 day period), the Nikkei 225 crashed over 12% in a single day and had the largest 2 day decline ever. It leaked into the US markets with a nasty bearish futures run and massive gaps lower. Fortunately Monday's trading didn't...

10:44

ChrisPulver

A quick video to summarize the hours and hours of live sessions I run each and every week. Everybody is scared and nervous when the market is falling because bull market geniuses love to see ATH's every single day :) I see simple wave structure on S&P and Nasdaq. 5th wave completion and a likely ABC or 123 correction. S&P 7-12% correction area, Nasdaq 10-15%...

ChrisPulver

EURAUD has been sliding lower and is testing a major support level at 1.4500. If there is a close below 1.4450, after nearly 12 months of a range, that could open up movement to 1.4000. If support holds, there is a clean trendline break and movement to a recent monthly pivot around 1.5000. Either way, 300-500 pips of movement isn't a bad thing. Let's see how this...

ChrisPulver

EURCAD has been directionless for months. But now it is wedged to the max and we're looking for a breakout. 4 hr or Daily Candles above or below the wedge will confirm direction. Entries will be small on initial breakout and looking to add on re-test of the wedge. 200+ pips in either direction protecting along the way. To see more charts and analysis, visit ...

ChrisPulver

GBPUSD and GBPCHF are setting up very similar inverse H&S Patterns. I am looking for a neckline break and confirmation to BUY. I will protect profits near the July Monthly Pivot at 1.3820 area and again near 1.4000 (psychological support/resistance). Just looking for a little love for the GBP basket and these are great setups. For more charts and analysis like...