$MSTR Falling Below the 50WMA in 2021 Bull Market Here's a look at last cycle where NASDAQ:MSTR trading under the 50WMA for several weeks led to the CRYPTOCAP:BTC bear market.
The reason why this was so significant last cycle is because they were responsible for such a large share of BTC buy pressure.
This cycle we have lots of other treasury companies, with many more to come, as well as ETFs of course, so I'm not as concerned with this PA.
MSTR
$MSTR Must Close This Week Above the 50WMA Or Else...The MicroStrategy chart is the only top signal that is somewhat cause for concern at the current moment.
You can see NASDAQ:MSTR has closed the past several weeks below the 50WMA, which signaled the start of the bear market last cycle.
Having said that, it has had a bullish rally this week and is trading above the 50WMA once again.
MSTR must close the week above this level, otherwise the stock could be in for a much deeper correction, which could negatively affect CRYPTOCAP:BTC in October.
Where have you heard that October prediction before?
Coincidence? 🥸
MSTU, Microstrategy 2x leverage etfThis ETF is a great way to get degenerately long on Bitcoin. If Microstrategy doesn't wet your beak, this one might. We have some gaps in the chart that I didn't see before. They are not visible on the higher time frames. I have been long on call options for a few days and was considering taking profit but because they are long dated leaps I am holding tight for now. Not financial advice, DYOR.
Is $MSTR only game in town? Charts seem to disagree. NASDAQ:MSTR was the first CRYPTOCAP:BTC treasury company in Wall Street. It provided the leverage required on the price by CRYPTOCAP:BTC by borrowing against its balance sheet and buying $BTC. This has worked well for Strategy as it was the only game in the town. But not anymore. With new Crypto treasury company coming to the public every single day and CRYPTOCAP:BTC treasury companies in abundance the attractiveness of NASDAQ:MSTR is decreasing.
In the chart below we check NASDAQ:MSTR stock price vs BITSTAMP:BTCUSD and see that it peaked in Nov 2024. Since then, it is a series of lower highs and lower lows. The downward sloping channel also makes things complicated for the stock in the mid-term. Just on the weekly there is some support in the chart between 0.0026 and 0.0021. This also happens to be between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fib retracement levels.
My assessment is we can see some support at 0.618 Fib levels but make no mistake if Crypto bear market comes in 2026 – 2027 then the ratio chart can visit the all-time lows of 0.0007.
Verdict: NASDAQ:MSTR / $ BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is in clear downturn. It can find support at 0.618 Fib retracement level. Ratio can visit the cycle lows of 0.0007.
MSTX – Bulls Preparing a Reversal Move!MSTX has been overall bearish 📉, trading inside a well-defined descending channel.
Recently, price approached the $23 – $24 support area, where buyers started showing signs of activity. This zone could act as a potential turning point if momentum continues.
🟢 Support at $23 – $24: A critical level where bulls may step in.
📈 Upside targets: If buyers take over, the first resistance sits around $33, followed by $36 and higher toward $47 – $50.
As long as $23 support holds, bulls 🐂 could drive a short-term reversal that turns into a bigger recovery move.
Patience ⏳ is key — waiting for confirmation before entering can provide a higher-probability setup.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
a megaphone over 500A good signal right on time was Powell saying he would change his monetary policy (he said he would adjust it). Then Bitcoin and all the equities hurt by the recent drops resumed the solid uptrend we’ve been seeing. They came back to consolidate technical levels and give us new highs. In the case of MSTR, we can see the formation of a megaphone pattern that could take us above 500 USD.
Is Crypto About To Explode: New Highs? The total crypto market cap is retesting $4 trillion.
We are now looking much more bullish on a technical basis across Ethereum & Bitcoin.
We may have had a failed breakdown in the Total Crypto market cap, which could provide the additional liquidity for another surge.
Recapturing Key Daily 7 & 20 MA's is a very positive sign.
Although still being net short BTC & ETH - I now have breakeven stop losses in place.
Ethereum chart is looking very explosive like it could have a move to $5500
ETH recently has defended a massive volume shelf which is a very bullish sign.
Keep on your radar: BMNR / SBET / MSTR / COIN / MARA
Bitcoin Income: STRK vs IBIT – Dividends, Covered Calls *UpdateJoin me as I dive into my investment journey comparing MSTR, STRK (with dividend offerings), and IBIT (with covered calls) since January 31, 2025! Initially, STRK was outperforming IBIT with covered calls, but as of September 13, 2025, IBIT with CC has taken the lead. Check out the detailed breakdown:
STRK: Bought at $81.00, now at $95.65, with a 24.5% gain and 6.47% yield.
MSTR: Bought at $334.79, now at $331.44, with a 0.0% yield and -1.0% loss.
IBIT: Bought at $58, now at $66, with a 27% gain and a 12.79% yield.
BTC: Bought at $102K, now at $115K, with a 13.2% gain.
QQQ: Bought at $522.00, now at $596.66, with a 12.7% gain and 0.36% yield.
From Jan 31st to now, IBIT with covered calls has outperformed STRK, flipping the early trend. Learn how these strategies played out, my takeaways, and what this means for my portfolio. Drop your thoughts in the comments—would you adjust your strategy based on this?
$MSTR trade to the upside? $375-395?NASDAQ:MSTR looks to be turning bullish here on small timeframes. We've broken out of the down trend line and look to be turning up for a move towards the resistances above.
I think we can potentially make it all the way up to $395 on this move to retest the area it broke down from.
However, that $375 area is also an area that can provide strong resistance.
Let's see how it plays out.
MSTR Long Setup at $320 Support — Targets Up to $455MicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR is trading at a critical support zone between $320 – $325. This area has historically attracted buyers, and with price consolidating at the lows, we’re eyeing a potential spot long entry if support holds.
📌 Trade Setup:
• Entry Zone: $320 – $325
• Take Profit Targets:
🥇 $360 – $390
🥈 $420 – $455
• Stop Loss: Just below $315
#MSTR #MicroStrategy #Stocks #TradingSetup #TechnicalAnalysis
#SupportZone #StockWatchlist #PriceAction
#SwingTrade #LongSetup #MarketAnalysis
$MSTR undervalued in terms of $IBITThis is a ratio of NASDAQ:MSTR / NASDAQ:IBIT and the idea here is that NASDAQ:MSTR MicroStrategy is growing undervalued in terms of Bitcoin / NASDAQ:IBIT , and the ratio is about to take out an important low.
This seems like an ideal time to consider a buy on NASDAQ:MSTR if you believe the Bitcoin bull market is not yet over, as it has been in a trend of underperformance, and could quickly shift back to outperformance if the Bitcoin bull market gets back underway.
How you choose to trade this could take many forms, I mostly just wanted to raise awareness of the setup.
COIN 1D Time frameMarket Snapshot
Current Price: ~$318.78
Daily Change: +5.5% (strong upward move)
🔎 Technical Indicators
RSI (14-day): ~71 → Overbought zone, signals caution.
MACD: Positive and rising → Strong bullish momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator: High → Overbought conditions, risk of short-term pullback.
ADX: ~16 → Weak trend strength despite recent move.
📈 Moving Averages
5-day MA: ~$315 → Bullish
50-day MA: ~$305 → Bullish
200-day MA: ~$314 → Bullish
All three show buy signals, confirming trend strength.
🔧 Support & Resistance
Support Levels: ~$315, ~$313, ~$311
Resistance Levels: ~$319, ~$321, ~$330
📅 Outlook
Bullish Case: If COIN sustains above ~$319, it could push toward $330 or higher.
Bearish Case: With RSI in overbought territory, a pullback toward ~$315–311 is possible.
Overall Bias: Moderately bullish, but vulnerable to short-term profit-taking.
MSTR Options Flow Screams Bullish — Can $345C Print This Week?
# ⚡ MSTR Weekly Trade Setup (2025-09-07)
**Bias:** 🎯 Mixed → speculative bullish bounce
**Conviction:** ⭐⭐⭐ (60%)
---
### 📊 Key Takeaways
* ✅ **Options flow:** Strongly bullish (C/P = 2.21)
* ❌ **Trend:** Still bearish (-16.45% monthly, RSI weak)
* ⚠️ **Volume:** Flat (1.0x avg) → no institutional conviction
* 🌐 **Volatility:** Low (VIX \~15) → cheap calls
* 🧱 **OI Walls:** \$340C & \$345C = resistance / gamma levels
---
### 🎯 Trade Plan (Speculative Play)
* **Instrument:** \ NASDAQ:MSTR
* **Direction:** CALL (naked)
* **Strike:** \$345.00
* **Expiry:** 2025-09-12 (weekly)
* **Entry Price:** \$8.60 (ask)
* **Profit Target:** \$12.90 (≈1.5×)
* **Stop Loss:** \$5.59 (\~35% risk)
* **Size:** 1 contract (small, punt-sized)
* **Entry Timing:** Open (prefer limit near ask)
---
### 🧠 Rationale
* Flow is unambiguously bullish, but **price trend & RSI weak** → treat as a bounce, not reversal.
* \$345C offers liquidity (OI 14,439) + better risk balance than \$340C.
* 5 DTE = **theta risk**, so trade is **binary/speculative**.
---
### ⚠️ Key Risks
* 📉 Trend is down → bounce may fail quickly.
* ⏳ Time decay fast with only 5 DTE.
* 🧱 Gamma/OI walls may cap upside near \$345.
* 📰 Macro/news can swamp bullish flow.
---
## 📌 TRADE DETAILS (JSON)
```json
{
"instrument": "MSTR",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 345.0,
"expiry": "2025-09-12",
"confidence": 0.60,
"profit_target": 12.90,
"stop_loss": 5.59,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 8.60,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-09-07 07:45:34 EDT"
}
```
---
🔥 **Summary:**
This is a **flow-driven speculative call punt** — risk small, size small, exit fast.
If flow + price action confirm, \ NASDAQ:MSTR \$345C has upside.
If not → cut quick.
Microstrategy: Further DeclineAfter a brief consolidation, MSTR continued its decline since our last update, further developing turquoise wave 2, where we still see price positioned. We continue to anticipate the low of this wave above the support at $153.49. In the meantime, we have revised the magenta substructure of wave 2 to a - - formation, with the final (wave- ) leg currently unfolding. Once turquoise wave 2 completes, we expect a strong rally above resistance at $674.18, which should significantly advance the broader upward impulse. However, under our new alternative scenario, a different wave count could prevail: price may currently be forming magenta wave alt. to the upside, developing a blue three-part substructure in the process. In this 25% likely scenario, the next move would be for blue wave alt. (b) to finish within the nearby blue alternative Target Zone between $306.60 and $252.67, before wave alt. (c) pushes up toward the top of magenta wave alt. near $674.18. Within this alternative, the blue zone could offer long entry opportunities, though heightened caution is warranted: since this remains only an alternative scenario, risk is elevated, and we consider strict risk management—such as setting a stop 1% below the lower edge of the zone—absolutely essential.
$MSTR – Bear Flag Breakdown SetupNASDAQ:MSTR – Bear Flag Triggering Despite Crypto Strength
MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has been drifting lower even as crypto has ripped the last few months — a clear sign of relative weakness. Every rally attempt has been faded, and now the chart is setting up a clean bear flag breakdown.
🔹 The Setup:
Price is pressing the $326 trigger level on a bear flag structure.
A breakdown here opens the door to $300 for the first cover zone.
Weak price action despite a strong sector = bearish divergence.
🔹 Market Context:
The NASDAQ:QQQ is flashing distribution signals — failed breakouts in momentum names and heavy selling under the surface.
If indexes continue to weaken, NASDAQ:MSTR could accelerate to the downside as speculative money comes out.
🔹 My Trade Plan:
1️⃣ Entry: Short on breakdown through $326.
2️⃣ Target: First covers into $300.
3️⃣ Stop: Above the flag highs — no need to fight if it reverses.
Why I Like This Setup:
Relative weakness vs. crypto = red flag for bulls.
Bear flag structure + clear trigger + defined target.
Broader market weakness adds conviction.
$MSTR better not cross $315 or less....While many don't agree with the direction that MSTR is heading, the technicals seem to tell a very clear story. Looking at support and resistance levels, we can see a strong resistance levels - which is miles away from where it is today! - and seems to be encroaching to support levels of around $315. If NASDAQ:MSTR breaks $315, CBOE:MSTZ could be a VERY NICE play.....
Have a hunch that we'll see an UltraShort signal soon, and then show will begin!
MSTR Short Alert | Lean Short Bias at $335
# ⚡ MSTR Short Alert | Lean Short Bias (Sep 2, 2025) 🪙📉
📊 **Market Summary:**
* Daily/Intraday: Bearish (Price < daily EMAs, RSI \~35, MACD negative) 🔻
* Weekly: Weakening but not decisively broken (near/above 50-week EMA) 📈
* Volume: Light — low participation on recent declines ⚖️
* Headlines: Neutral; watch BTC correlation & macro events 📰
**Net Bias:** Lean short on daily timeframe; small position recommended 🐻
---
## ✅ Trade Plan
* 🎯 **Instrument:** MSTR
* 🔀 **Direction:** SHORT
* 💵 **Entry Price:** \~335.0 (acceptable 333–336)
* 🛑 **Stop Loss:** 341.13 (daily resistance / pivot)
* 🎯 **Take Profit:** 320.00 (scale 60%), trail remaining 40% to 310.00
* 📊 **Position Size:** 1.5% of portfolio
* 📈 **Confidence:** 60%
* ⏰ **Entry Timing:** Market Open
---
## ⚠️ Key Risks
* Low volume → false break / short-squeeze risk ⚡
* MSTR-BTC correlation or S\&P rumors could gap price higher 🪙
* Weekly support \~322–325 may limit downside 🛑
---
## 💡 Trade Rationale
* Daily + 30m confluence: short-term bounce attempts stalling under intraday resistances (336–339)
* Weekly momentum weakening → controlled small-size short
* Stop above 341.13 → disciplined risk management
---
\#️⃣ **Tags / Hashtags:**
\#MSTR #ShortTrade #StockTrading #SwingTrade #CryptoCorrelation #DailyRSI #TradingSignal #RiskManagement 🐻🔥
MSTR Bottoming Soon?NASDAQ:MSTR continues to range while weekly RSI heads into oversold without a significant pullback, a good sign for a bullish long term outlook.
My downside target for this move remains the High Volume Node, weekly pivot and golden ratio Fibonacci retracement at $290.
The R3 weekly pivot is a solid terminal target at $1039 but could overextend in an irrational environment.
Analysis is invalidated below wave (IV)
Safe trading
SBET vs DFDV: Which Crypto Treasury Horse Will Run Fastest?SharpLink Gaming (SBET) and DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) are prime examples of the MicroStrategy model applied to different digital assets, Ethereum and Solana, respectively.
SharpLink Gaming, formerly an online gaming company, has made a dramatic and public pivot to become one of the world's largest corporate holders of Ether (ETH). Its strategy is to act as a direct and transparent vehicle for investors to gain exposure to the Ethereum ecosystem. The company actively raises significant capital through equity offerings, such as its recent multi-billion dollar ATM program, to fund its ETH acquisitions. It also generates yield by staking its ETH, which is a key part of its business model. The company's stock price and market narrative are now almost exclusively tied to the performance of its growing ETH treasury, making it a high-beta proxy for Ethereum.
DeFi Development Corp. has a similar, dedicated focus on Solana (SOL). The company's business is centered on accumulating, compounding, and providing exposure to SOL. DFDV's core strategy is to grow its "SOL per share" metric, which is its equivalent to MicroStrategy's Bitcoin per share. To achieve this, DFDV also engages in aggressive capital raises. Like SharpLink, it also generates revenue by actively participating in the ecosystem through staking, operating its own validator nodes, and exploring other on-chain opportunities.
In essence, both companies have fundamentally transformed their business models to serve as publicly-traded, regulated treasury vehicles for their respective assets. They both use financial engineering, like capital raises, to grow their holdings and create a leveraged play for investors. The primary difference is the underlying asset—ETH for SBET and SOL for DFDV—and the specific ecosystem activities they engage in to generate additional value beyond simple price appreciation.
Market Cap
Comparing the market capitalization of Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) is crucial for understanding the capital flows needed for one to outperform the other. As of late August 2025, ETH's market cap is approximately $429 billion, while SOL's is about $87 billion, meaning ETH is nearly 5 times larger.
For SOL to outperform ETH, it must grow at a much faster rate. Due to its smaller size, SOL requires a proportionally smaller amount of new capital to achieve a significant price increase. For example, to close the market cap gap by 10%, SOL would need an additional $43 billion in inflows, which would cause its price to more than double. In contrast, for ETH to achieve the same proportional gain (e.g., a 10% increase), it would need over $40 billion in new capital inflows.
Essentially, SOL has a higher beta and a lower monetary hurdle to achieve significant percentage gains. A steady inflow of tens of billions of dollars would have a much more dramatic impact on SOL's price than on ETH's. However, with ETH's sheer size and institutional backing, particularly with the recent launch of spot ETFs, it can absorb and channel much larger capital flows, which is a key reason its price is less volatile. Therefore, SOL's smaller size makes it more sensitive to inflows, making it easier for it to outperform ETH on a percentage basis, especially during a retail-driven bull market.
Impact of Spot ETFs
A significant number of spot Ethereum ETFs have already been approved and are trading in the United States. Following the approval of the initial 19b-4 filings in May 2024, the SEC subsequently declared several S-1 registration statements effective in July 2024, allowing the ETFs to begin trading. There are currently nine SEC-approved spot ETH ETFs from major issuers like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale. There are currently no approved SOL spot ETFs in the United States. However, several applications are under active consideration by the SEC. Filings from major issuers such as Bitwise and 21Shares have been submitted, but the SEC has consistently delayed its decision on them. There is a general expectation that if the SEC continues to follow the precedent set by Bitcoin and Ethereum, a Solana ETF could be the next in line for approval. In summary, a clear distinction exists: ETH spot ETFs are a reality, with multiple products already trading, while SOL spot ETFs are still in the application and review phase, awaiting a decision from the SEC.
Summary
While ETH has had relative outperformance in August 2025 against Bitcoin and most large-cap alts, the approval of Solana spot ETFs will provide a significant tailwind for SOL and SOL treasury companies like DFDV. While Ethereum is the strongest horse among the alts, has experienced no downtime, and gas fee transactions on the main chain have become much cheaper than they were the last cycle, hot money will quickly allocate capital towards the highest-beta alts and crypto treasury companies as ETFs are approved; possibly on a rolling basis if underlying assets are approved at different times in Q4. However, expect ETH and SBET to do exceptional through 2026 as ETH hits mainstream adoption through ERC-20 based tokenized stocks, prediction markets, etc. and as spot ETF inflows accelerate.
MSTR still bullish. MSTR bullishness is still intact but it should close above the upper yellow line for the bullishness confirmation intact. If that happens then there's a big possibility that we will see a big sharp last parabolic run to new ATH. Of course this is not financial advised.
If this failed then the last hope is on the Red Line.
MSTR Ponzi is paying for my yearly steak & lobster subscriptionWe can see that from the white Centerline, MSTR has only been heading south. In contrast, Bitcoin has held up quite a bit better so far.
If you go back through my posts, you’ll see that I’ve been warning for a long time that MSTR is basically feeding itself. That simply can’t end well!
Either way – we gratefully take our profit and wait until we reach the lower centerline. Because we know there’s about an 80% chance that the price will fall back into temporary equilibrium, the Centerline
And if you’re not too greedy, well then you take 70%–80% of the profits now and let the rest run.
Anyone who was able to learn something from this trade or even make profits is welcome to boost and comment. §8-)
YT video will be available tomorrow.
...and on we go.






















