NASDAQ Faces Downside Risk Amid Tariff and Shutdown UncertaintyUSNAS100 – Technical Outlook Aligned with Fundamentals
The Nasdaq 100 fell sharply on Friday, losing nearly 1,200 points within six hours as it retreated from its all-time high.
The drop came amid renewed U.S.–China tariff tensions and growing uncertainty from the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed key economic data releases and weighed on sentiment ahead of third-quarter earnings season.
Technically, the index is showing clear bearish pressure, and sellers will likely maintain control while the price remains below 23,930.
A short-term corrective rebound toward 24,160 – 24,350 is possible before renewed downside momentum.
If the price closes a 1H or 4H candle below 23,930, it would confirm a continuation of the bearish trend, opening the way toward 23,700 → 23,500 → 23,350.
Conversely, as long as the index trades above 23,930, limited corrections may occur, but overall bias remains weak under current macro headwinds.
Pivot Line: 23,930
Support Levels: 23,700 / 23,500 / 23,350
Resistance Levels: 24,160 / 24,340 / 24,480
Summary:
Fundamental headwinds — from tariff threats to the shutdown’s data vacuum — are fueling pressure on tech stocks.
Technically, bias stays bearish below 23,930, with a potential correction toward 24,350 before continuation to the downside.
Nasdaq
The NQ dumped to a 4 hour order block created Sept 14th 11pm ESTThe NQ dumped to a 4 hour order block that was created Sunday Sept 14th 11pm EST
Could be coincidence and would make sense to reverse (if it does Monday), but this chart looks TOO Perfect .
Insider Trading at the highest level?
Just looks to perfect to be organic.
I will have my longs in at open, see you at open! : )
$MSTR Swing Trade Setup: Layered Short Entries on Breakout📉 MSTR "STRATEGY INC" STOCK – Bearish Thief Plan (Swing/Scalp Setup)
⚡ Trade Setup (Bearish Pending Order Plan)
Asset: NASDAQ:MSTR (MicroStrategy Inc.)
Plan: Bearish (waiting for support breakout confirmation).
Entry Zone:
Pending breakout entry @ 320.00 ⚡
Layered “Thief” Strategy (scaling entries):
Sell Limit Layers: 340.00 / 330.00 / 320.00
You may add or adjust layers based on your own risk tolerance.
🔔 Set TradingView alerts at breakout levels to track price action.
Stop Loss (Thief Style):
Protective SL @ 360.00 (after breakout confirmation).
Adjust per your strategy & risk management.
Target Zone (Exit):
Police barricade support @ 290.00
Note: Take profit is discretionary — escape with profits at your own chosen level 🚪💰.
🔑 Why This Plan? (Thief Strategy Context)
The Thief Plan = using multiple layered limit entries after a breakout for better risk/reward.
Scaling entries gives flexibility while reducing FOMO and chasing.
Exit early at support barricades or oversold traps.
📊 MicroStrategy (MSTR) Market Data Report
As of September 7, 2025
1. Retail & Institutional Sentiment 🤝
Retail: Mixed / cautious (crypto exposure volatility).
Institutional: Neutral → slightly bearish (Bitcoin correlation + regulatory risk).
Estimated Sentiment: 55% Neutral / 30% Bearish / 15% Bullish.
2. Fear & Greed Index 😨😋
Current level: Neutral ~50/100
Suggests balanced emotions → no extreme greed or fear.
3. Fundamental & Macro Scores 📈📉
Fundamental ~60/100: MSTR tied to Bitcoin trends, highly volatile.
Macro ~55/100: Pressures include crypto regulation, tech volatility, interest rates.
Bitcoin remains the key driver.
4. Market Outlook 🐂🐻
Bull Case: BTC rally → MSTR boost, institutional adoption helps.
Bear Case: Regulatory clampdowns, BTC volatility → downside pressure.
Overall: Neutral → Slightly Bearish (short-term caution).
🚀 Key Takeaways
NASDAQ:MSTR moves in sync with Bitcoin → monitor BTC charts closely.
Sentiment is not strongly bullish → short setups have edge here.
Thief layering strategy aligns with volatility.
Always respect SL & manage risk 🔐.
🔗 Related Pairs to Watch
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
NASDAQ:COIN (Coinbase)
NASDAQ:RIOT (Riot Platforms)
NASDAQ:MARA (Marathon Digital)
SP:SPX / NASDAQ:NDX (macro impact on tech/crypto plays)
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#MSTR #MicroStrategy #Stocks #SwingTrade #Scalping #BearishSetup #CryptoStocks #LayeredStrategy #ThiefPlan #BitcoinCorrelation #TradingViewIdea
Exxon Mobil Stock Outlook: Fundamentals + Technicals Aligned📌 Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) — Bullish Master Plan (Swing / Scalping Trade)
🛠️ Plan Setup (Thief Strategy)
Bias: Bullish — Triangular Moving Average Pullback 📈
Entry: Multiple layered limit orders at 🔹 $110.00 🔹 $111.00 🔹 $112.00 (You can adjust layers based on your own strategy).
Stop Loss (Protective Layer): $108.00 (adjust to your own risk preference).
Target Zone: Around $118.00 (key resistance area).
⚠️ Note: These levels are not financial advice. Manage risk carefully and adjust according to your own strategy.
❓ Why This Plan?
This Thief Plan Strategy uses layered limit orders for flexible entries. It combines technical pullback signals with fundamental, macro, sentiment, and fear/greed insights to build a confluence-based trade idea.
📊 Stock Price Overview
Daily Change: -0.20% (from $112.50 previous close)
1-Month Trend: +5.66% (from $106.27 on Aug 12)
1-Year Trend: -4.21% (from $117.22 in Sep 2024)
Year-to-Date: +2.26% (from $109.57 in 2024)
😊 Investor Sentiment
Retail Investors: 50.76% bullish 😄
Institutional Investors: 47.25% bearish 😕
Overall Mood: Mixed ⚖️
😨 Fear & Greed Index
Current Level: 39 (Fear)
Interpretation: Cautious tone, may signal undervaluation.
📈 Fundamental Score (7.55/10) ✅
Strong revenue: $340.57B in 2024 (+1.16% YoY) 💰
Stable dividend: $0.99/share quarterly 🎉
Weaknesses: Net profit -6.47% in 2024, higher operating costs 📉
🌍 Macro Score (6.8/10) 🌎
Oil demand projected to rise 20% by 2050 🛢️
Geopolitical risks support oil prices 🔥
OPEC+ output hike could moderate momentum 📉
🐂🐻 Market Outlook
Consensus: Neutral → Mildly Bullish ⚖️
Analyst Ratings: Moderate Buy (12 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell)
Key Drivers: Stable fundamentals + oil price volatility = balanced setup.
🔑 Takeaway
Exxon Mobil (XOM) offers a layered-entry bullish opportunity with mixed sentiment but strong long-term fundamentals.
Fear-dominated mood may provide contrarian opportunities.
Keep an eye on oil prices & geopolitics for momentum triggers.
Layering strategy provides flexibility across multiple levels. 🚀
🔗 Related Pairs to Watch (in USD)
Chevron Corporation (CVX): Another oil major with similar exposure to crude prices. 🛢️
United States Oil Fund (USO): Tracks WTI crude oil prices, a key driver for XOM. 📈
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE): Broad energy sector ETF for context. 💡
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#XOM #ExxonMobil #EnergyStocks #SwingTrade #Scalping #StockMarket #Oil #Fundamentals #TechnicalAnalysis #Macro #FearGreedIndex #TradingStrategy #LayeredEntry #StockIdeas
QQQ Resistance - Big pullback or breakout comingAs you can see from the trend lines, we are about to touch resistance. The last two times this happened we got a sizable pullback. During COVID, it was a breakout. QQQ just keeps pushing higher on the AI trade as the bubble just continues to grow. The AI trade is still strong. Right now companies are making massive "deals" (okay, promises) and stocks just keep exploding. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the next few weeks.
NAS100 Decision Point at All-Time HighsNAS100 Decision Point at All-Time Highs
Asset: NAS100 (NASDAQ 100) 11th Oct 2025 UTC+4
Closing Price: 24,026.1 | Bias: Neutral, awaiting breakout confirmation.
1. Multi-Timeframe Market Structure
Daily Chart Context: The index is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, trading near all-time highs. The recent consolidation suggests a pause within the broader bullish structure.
Critical Resistance: 24,200 - 24,300. A confluence of the recent swing high and a psychological barrier. A decisive daily close above 24,300 is the key bullish trigger.
Key Support Levels:
Immediate: 23,900 (Recent swing low & 4H consolidation base).
Primary: 23,650 - 23,750 (Previous resistance, now key support & 50 EMA area).
Major: 23,400 (Would signal a deeper correction).
2. Chart Pattern & Wyckoff/Elliott Wave Context
Pattern: The price action from the September low exhibits characteristics of a Wyckoff Accumulation phase, followed by a strong markup. The current pause could be a re-accumulation before the next leg up, or a distribution.
Elliott Wave Count: The rally from the ~23,400 low is impulsive. We are likely in a Wave 4 (corrective) consolidation. A break above 24,200 would confirm the start of Wave 5 towards new highs. A break below 23,650 would invalidate this count.
3. Indicator Confluence & Momentum
Ichimoku Cloud (Daily): Price is well above the Senkou Span (Cloud), confirming the strong bullish trend. The cloud itself is thick and rising, providing strong dynamic support.
RSI (14): On the daily, RSI is neutral (~60), not yet overbought, leaving room for further upside.
Bollinger Bands (4H): Price is hugging the upper band, indicating strength. A move to the middle band (~23,950) would be a healthy pullback.
Moving Averages: The 50 EMA (23,850) and 200 EMA (23,500) are bullishly aligned, acting as dynamic support layers.
Actionable Trading Plan
Intraday Trading (Based on 1H/15M Charts)
Bullish Breakout Setup:
Trigger: Sustained price action above 24,150 with rising volume.
Buy Entry: On a pullback to 24,100-24,130, or a break of 24,200.
Stop Loss: Below 24,000.
Targets: 24,300 (TP1), 24,450 (TP2).
Bearish Rejection Setup:
Trigger: Bearish reversal candle (e.g., Shooting Star, Bearish Engulfing) at 24,150-24,200.
Sell Entry: On the confirmation of the rejection.
Stop Loss: Above 24,250.
Targets: 23,950 (TP1), 23,850 (TP2).
Swing Trading (Based on 4H/Daily Charts)
Long Swing Entry:
Condition: Wait for a daily close above 24,300.
Entry: On the next pullback towards 24,200 (new support).
Stop Loss: Below 23,900.
Target: 24,600 - 24,800.
Short Swing Entry (Counter-Trend):
Condition: A clear break and close below 23,900.
Entry: On a retest of 23,900 as resistance.
Stop Loss: Above 24,100.
Target: 23,750, then 23,650.
Risk & Trade Management Note
The current setup is a high-probability bull trap if price fails at the 24,200 resistance. Conversely, a breakout opens significant upside. Do not chase price in the middle of the range. Patience for a confirmed trigger is key. Always use a stop-loss and manage position size accordingly.
Netflix (NFLX) - Descriptive Analysis by FIBCOS📘 NFLX 2009–2029 Descriptive Analysis
This is a detailed Elliott Wave Theory -based outlook for Netflix (NFLX) stock from around 2009 to the projected future of 2029, and it incorporates Fibonacci retracement & extensions, Smart Money Concepts (SMC) , and Price Action structure within a channel.
Let’s break this down chronologically and structurally:
🌀 Wave Theory Confluence (Elliott Wave Structure)
The long-term structure of Netflix (NFLX) from 2009 to the projected 2029 period follows a classic Elliott Wave cycle, now realigned with the cycle top in mid-2018 and the macro correction ending in mid-2022.
1. Cycle Wave i (2009–2018):
NFLX entered a powerful multi-year rally, forming five sub-waves within this first major impulse. This long rally ended in mid-2018 , marking the top of Cycle Wave i .
2. Cycle Wave ii – ABC Correction (2018–2022):
From the 2018 top, the price entered a prolonged and complex 4-year correction, unfolding as a classic A-B-C corrective structure.
Wave A began the decline with a sharp markdown.
Wave B was a fake recovery, leading to Wave C, a deeper liquidation into mid-2022 , completing the correction.
This phase aligns with a major redistribution cycle where smart money exited positions, and retail investors were caught in hope rallies.
3. Cycle Wave iii (2022–2025):
After finding a bottom in mid-2022, the stock launched a new impulsive rally , forming five sub-waves (1–5) of a powerful Wave iii
Momentum accelerated in wave 3 of iii (typical in Elliott Wave), and the structure is now peaking as of late 2025, around $1,576.42.
This marks the expected completion of Wave iii, with signals pointing toward a correction.
4. Cycle Wave iv (Expected 2025–2027):
A corrective wave iv is expected to unfold, possibly returning toward the lower bound of the long-term ascending channel.
According to the principle of alternation , since wave ii was deep and complex, wave iv may be shallower or more sideways.
5. Cycle Wave v (Expected 2027–2029):
After the wave iv correction, a final impulsive leg — Wave v — is expected to push the price higher, targeting around $2,280.37 , with a potential extended move to $3,008.41 .
This will complete the macro 5-wave cycle that began in 2009.
📐 Fibonacci Confluence
The Fibonacci structure supports these wave formations:
The 2.618 extension of the previous impulse wave (measured from the 2022 bottom) projects a price target near $2,280.37 , aligning with historical extension zones.
The extended target at $3,008.41 aligns with the upper boundary of the long-term channel — often reached during euphoric final waves.
Prior retracements during wave ii and the anticipated retracement in wave iv fall into common Fibonacci pullback zones (0.382–0.618).
Fibonacci tools confirm that price has behaved symmetrically within the wave cycles, and provide high-probability zones for both correction and expansion.
🧠 Smart Money Concept (SMC)
From a Smart Money perspective, the chart reflects a complete institutional cycle:
Distribution Zone (2017–2018):
Smart money exited during the late stages of Cycle Wave i. This aligns with the cycle top in mid-2018 , often accompanied by overvaluation and high optimism.
Re-Accumulation Phase (2018–2022):
The 4-year correction allowed institutional players to accumulate at discounted prices during wave C. Retail was largely shaken out, and liquidity was swept multiple times.
Expansion Phase (2022–2025):
From the 2022 bottom, price moved sharply upward in a clean impulse (Wave iii), confirming institutional interest. Gaps, strong breakouts, and efficient trends reflected low-resistance expansion driven by smart money.
Future Distribution (2029?):
Around the projected $2,280–$3,008 range (Wave v), expect distribution signs —including deviation from trend, order block mitigation, and liquidity grabs. These are typical before a larger market reset.
Smart Money Concepts help explain the why behind each wave: fear and euphoria don’t happen randomly — they are often orchestrated phases of value transfer.
📊 Price Action Structure
The long-term price action of NFLX reinforces the wave count and market psychology:
2009–2018 (Wave i):
Price action showed a steady trend of higher highs and higher lows , with smooth breakouts and momentum-driven runs.
2018–2022 (Wave ii correction):
A breakdown in structure occurred. Lower highs and a wide, overlapping correction defined this multi-year distribution. Key support levels were breached and retested as resistance — a classic bearish shift in structure.
2022–2025 (Wave iii):
Clean, impulsive movement resumed. Breakouts, bullish flags, and retests marked key continuation zones. Market structure flipped back bullish with efficient rallies.
2025–2027 (Wave iv expected):
A retracement is likely toward previous demand zones , possibly aligning with wave 4 of the lower-degree impulse, respecting Elliott’s guideline of wave 4 often retracing to the territory of wave 4 of the previous degree.
2027–2029 (Wave v projection):
Anticipate price pushing into new highs, with potential overextension . However, bearish divergence and slowing momentum could foreshadow the macro top.
This structure shows how technical behavior mirrors emotional and fundamental phases — from greed to fear, and back again.
📆 Timeline Summary (2009–2029)
2009–2018:
Powerful multi-year impulse forms Cycle Wave i , ending in mid-2018.
2018–2022:
A deep, multi-legged ABC correction forms Cycle Wave ii , ending in mid-2022.
2022–2025:
Explosive impulsive rally forms Cycle Wave iii , currently completing around $1,576.42.
2025–2027 (Expected):
A corrective pullback forms Cycle Wave iv , likely more sideways or shallow in structure.
2027–2029 (Expected):
Final rally completes Cycle Wave v , with price targets between $2,280.37 and $3,008.41 , ending the macro Elliott structure.
🔚 Conclusion
With the cycle top revised to mid-2018 and the correction ending mid-2022 , the chart structure becomes even more aligned with classic Elliott Wave theory and Smart Money behavior.
Netflix’s long-term chart is a perfect confluence of:
Elliott Wave structure (impulse → correction → impulse),
Fibonacci precision,
Institutional manipulation (SMC), and
Clear price action behavior.
The roadmap to 2029 shows exciting bullish potential, but also highlights the need for caution near projected macro top zones — where institutional distribution may quietly unfold again.
📘 DISCLAIMER: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management.
#Netflix, #NFLX, #Nasdaq #WaveTheory, #Fibonacci, #SmartMoney, #PriceAction
Bitcoin vs. NASDAQNASDAQ still has some steam left until it tops. That may take Bitcoin a but further from the current than $126K but not by a lot. From here on, Bitcoin will probably correct a lot and then make a comeback once NASDAQ picks up. It will probably top at around ~$130K at the end of Q42025 / Q12026.
BTC BREAKING NEWS OR BREAKING CHARTS?📰 BREAKING NEWS OR BREAKING CHARTS?
TRUMP IMPOSES TARIFFS, CAUSING A BITCOIN BLOODBATH — $20,000 DRAWDOWN IN 2 HOURS!
Bitcoin was sitting comfortably at $121,000, before a sudden macro shock — triggered by newly imposed U.S. tariffs — sent prices spiraling down to $100,000 in a matter of hours.
Bulls were liquidated. Bears rejoiced.
Now, the market stands at a crossroads: will this become a major dump continuation, or the foundation for a secret pump?
Chart Overview & Structure
On the high timeframe, BTC continues to trade within a rising wedge formation, with price now showing a significant wick rejection from the upper boundary. This move suggests a potential shift in market structure — a moment that’s likely to shake inexperienced traders. The chart reveals a clear supply and demand structure:
Supply Zone: $123,452 – $130,000
D emand Zone: $98,826 – $101,400
These zones define the battlefield between bulls and bears. In addition, eight psychological levels dominate the chart — $100K, $105K, $110K, $115K, $120K, $125K, and $130K — each representing potential liquidity clusters and reaction points.
Adding to the complexity, we can see a golden pocket (0.618–0.65 retracement) forming around $106,000, perfectly aligning with prior swing lows and the midpoint of a large Fair Value Gap (FVG) overhead. This zone could serve as a reversal or continuation point depending on whether price can reclaim and hold above the major support trendline.
Technical Insights
The market has now tapped the rising wedge resistance three times, with the last tap forming a wick above $125K, triggering liquidity before the sharp collapse. This aligns with the classical exhaustion behavior of wedges. Moreover, a potential Head and Shoulders structure is beginning to emerge, with the right shoulder aligning near $115K — a confluence area that may attract strong bearish attention.
For now, price is testing the lower support trendline — a crucial pivot area for determining whether BTC continues to break down toward demand or consolidates for recovery. This structure creates a make-or-break zone that will define the next macro leg.
Bullish Scenario
Despite the panic, this could be a classic liquidity flush — a “flush candle” event designed to wipe out leveraged long positions before a larger move upward. If BTC can maintain structure above the major support line and close above $106K–$110K, it opens the door for a relief rally.
A reclaim of $115K would confirm buyer strength.
Sustained momentum could push BTC back into the $120K–$125K range to retest the broken supply zone.
Breaking through $125K would invalidate the bearish wedge, potentially igniting a run toward $130K+ and even new highs in “Pump-tober.”
In this scenario, the deep liquidation event becomes fuel for a massive short squeeze, driving momentum and reigniting bullish sentiment across crypto markets.
Bearish Scenario
On the flip side, if BTC fails to hold above $106K or decisively breaks below the demand zone at $98K, it would confirm a rising wedge breakdown.
Below $100K, momentum could accelerate toward $95K–$92K — the next liquidity pools and volume gaps.
The Head and Shoulders completion would confirm the bearish reversal structure, further strengthening the downside case.
Macro sentiment, fueled by geopolitical and policy fears, could add weight to the bearish outlook.
A rejection from $115K without sustained reclaim would also reinforce the bearish continuation pattern, with every psychological level above turning into resistance.
Summary
Bitcoin is at an inflection point — the $100K–$115K range will define the next macro move.
The recent wick and structure breakdown hint at weakness, but the flush candle and liquidity sweep also suggest that a bullish rebound could be on the horizon.
In short:
Above $115K → Bullish continuation possible.
Below $100K → Bearish expansion likely.
With volatility at its peak, traders should expect massive liquidity hunts, fakeouts, and emotional traps on both sides.
Whether this becomes the start of a macro correction or a secret accumulation phase before a major pump — the next few daily closes will tell the story.
$Solana $250+ or DOWN 216?In our recent post, we perfectly predicted the touch of 250 and 190.
Price has now reversed off the supply zone and is making its way back up, lets see what the potential out come for the next two weeks are!
Solana (SOL/USDT) 1H Chart Analysis
Current Price: ~$232
Trend : Price is was inside a clear ascending channel, respecting support and resistance lines - however has now breached resistance.
Key Levels
Support Zones:
$225 → Psychological support + 4H FVG.
$216 → Deeper 4H FVG and strong volume node. ( + 4 Hour Fib GP )
$200 → Major psychological level + prior supply zone flip.
Resistance Zones:
$250 → Psychological resistance + demand zone.
$275 → Next major resistance if $250 breaks.
Bullish Scenario
If SOL holds above $225 and consolidates within the trend channel, price could retest $250.
Break and close above $250 may extend rally toward $275.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold $225 could drag SOL to the $216 FVG or even $208.
A breakdown of $208 increases risk of revisiting $200.
Summary
Market structure remains bullish as long as price respects the rising trendline.
$225 is the key short-term pivot: holding above favors $250+, losing it opens downside risk toward $216–200.
Let me know what you think!
$BTC Daily chart $130K! or $115k DUMPBTC/USDT – Bearish Harmonic Formation | Key Levels & Scenarios
Technical Overview:
Price is currently forming a bearish harmonic pattern, approaching a key decision zone. The next few daily candles will determine whether BTC continues its bullish trend or initiates a corrective phase.
Key Zones
Demand: 122.2K – 124.7K
Supply: 105.1K – 108.9K
Psychological Levels: 130K · 125K · 120K · 115K
Golden Pocket: Around 115K (0.618–0.65 retracement)
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs):
115K–118K
110K (secondary FVG)
Swing Points:
Previous Swing Low: 108K
Previous Swing High: 126K
High Volume Nodes: 118K and 115K
Market Structure
BTC is respecting a consistent bullish leg with limited pullbacks. Price recently swept the 125K psychological level, aligning with harmonic completion and demand resistance.
Scenario Outlook
🔼 Bullish Continuation:
A daily close above the 124.7K demand zone could invalidate the bearish harmonic and signal continuation toward 130K+ targets.
🔽 Bearish Reversal:
A close below the previous day’s candle low may confirm the start of a bearish correction, targeting 118K → 115K, and potentially 110K.
Bearish Confluences
Bearish Harmonic Pattern completion near key resistance.
Golden Pocket + FVG + Psychological + Volume confluence at 115K.
Extended bullish leg with no significant retracement, followed by 125K liquidity sweep.
LET me know your thoughts below!
$ETH Market Assessment Incoming FAKEOUT? ETH/USD Perpetual – Market Assessment
Key Zones
Demand: 4737 – 4895
Supply: 3818 – 3994
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs): 4433, 4326
Anchored Volume Node: 4300 (significant liquidity cluster)
Psychological Levels : 4000, 4500, 5000
Recent Swing Points: High 4753, Low 3821
Technical Structure
High-Time Frame (HTF) Analysis:
Pattern: Bullish flag
Interpretation: Indicates potential continuation to the upside if price breaks above the flag resistance.
Daily-Time Frame (DTF) Analysis:
Pattern: Bearish channel
Interpretation: Suggests a slightly bearish pressure on the daily trend; caution required for long positions.
Volume and Liquidity:
Anchored volume node at 4300 aligns closely with FVGs at 4326 and 4433 – this area may act as strong support on pullbacks.
Scenario Planning
Bullish Scenario:
Price holds above demand zone (4737–4895).
Break above recent swing high at 4753 confirms bullish momentum.
Potential targets: 4895, 5000 psychological resistance.
Pullbacks likely to find support at FVGs (4433, 4326) or volume node (4300).
Bearish Scenario:
Price fails to hold demand zone and breaks below recent swing low 3821.
Next support: supply zone 3818–3994, then psychological level at 4000.
FVGs and volume node may temporarily slow the downside movement.
Summary / Notes
HTF indicates bullish continuation potential; daily trend shows bearish pressure.
Demand and supply zones, FVGs, and volume nodes are key levels for trade planning.
Monitor price reactions at swing points, psychological levels, and liquidity clusters to confirm trade setups.
Trade management should consider both bullish and bearish contingencies, with SLs placed near key FVGs or volume nodes.
BTC - Distribution after ATH sweepMarket Context
Bitcoin has completed a clear liquidity sweep at the all-time high (ATH) and is now transitioning into a corrective phase. After taking all the liquidity above the prior high, price aggressively rejected and shifted structure to the downside, signaling that smart money may now be engineering a retracement. The move lower has found a temporary pause within a lower accumulation zone where liquidity is rebuilding.
Fair Value Gaps & Manipulation
Following the ATH sweep, price manipulated back into a fair value gap (FVG) chain, where it met resistance. This area acted as a precise reaction point, rejecting further bullish attempts and confirming the FVG as an active supply zone. Each touch into this chain has resulted in lower highs, supporting the idea that distribution is underway. The fair value gaps below are likely to be targeted next as price seeks efficiency.
Liquidity Dynamics
Liquidity above has already been collected — the current draw now lies beneath. The accumulation zone below current price holds resting sell-side liquidity, and the market could aim to fill those inefficiencies before finding new demand. A retracement into these lower levels would act as a healthy correction to the prior bullish impulse, maintaining structural balance.
Final Thoughts
The market has shifted from an aggressive expansion phase to a potential distribution stage. With liquidity taken at the highs and FVGs now providing resistance, the bias leans toward a corrective move lower before any renewed bullish continuation. A break below the local accumulation floor would confirm deeper targets.
If this breakdown helped clarify the current BTC structure, a like is always appreciated — and let me know: are you positioning for the correction, or waiting for the next bullish leg to form?
US100 Will Keep Growing!
HI,Traders !
#US100 is trading in an
Uptrend and broke
The key horizontal level
Of 25033.5 and the breakout
Is confirmed so after a potential
Retest of the support cluster
Of the rising and horizontal
Support lines below we will
Be expecting a bullish continuation !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
USNAS100 – Range Consolidation Before Breakout, Key Zone: 25,175USNAS100 – Overview | Range-Bound Ahead of Key Market Events
The NASDAQ 100 rebounded from the support zone highlighted earlier, though market sentiment remains cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. data releases and the prolonged government shutdown.
Price action shows consolidation near the upper range, with short-term traders watching for a breakout to define direction.
Technical Outlook
The index is currently capped below the 25,175 – 25,225 zone.
As long as price trades beneath this resistance band, momentum favors a bearish correction toward 25,070 → 25,015, and a sustained move below 25015 could extend losses to 24900.
Conversely, a 1-hour close above 25,220 would confirm a bullish breakout and open the path toward 25,300 → 25,390, with further upside potential if buyers remain in control.
Pivot Line: 25 175
Resistance: 25 300 · 25 390 · 25 450
Support: 25 070 · 25 015 · 24 900
Summary:
USNAS100 remains range-bound, trading between 25,070 and 25,225.
A breakout on either side of this range will define the next intraday move—above 25,220 favors continuation toward 25,390, while below 25,015 signals deeper correction toward 24,900.
$NKE Inverse Head and Shoulder $117 to gap fillThe chart is currently forming a classic Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which is a bullish reversal setup. The left shoulder and head have already been established, and the right shoulder is in development, suggesting a potential breakout to the upside. The neckline resistance appears to be around the $73-$85 range. A confirmed breakout above this level could trigger a measured move toward the $117 gap fill, which aligns with a previous price gap and serves as a logical target for bullish momentum.
Key technical highlights:
Target Price: ~$117 (gap fill zone)
If volume confirms the breakout above the neckline, this setup could offer a strong risk/reward opportunity for traders. Keep an eye on RSI and MACD for confirmation of bullish momentum.
Why traders are losing money? Position Size PurposeWhy traders are losing money
Most traders do not lose because the market is hostile or because entries are bad. They lose because the size of each position is out of sync with account size, with volatility, and with a realistic pain threshold. They also stack correlated exposure until a normal downswing becomes a career ending drawdown. The fix is a repeatable sizing process that keeps losses small, keeps risk per trade constant across regimes, and caps total open risk across the book.
Root causes of loss clustering
Risk per trade that is too large for the real account balance that is available for trading
Stops that ignore volatility so a quiet week and a fast week carry the same unit count while loss size swings wildly
Portfolio heat that compounds across correlated positions in the same theme or factor
Inconsistent exits so a written stop is moved or ignored after the position is open
Scaling rules that add size before the trade earns the right to carry more risk
A review loop that tracks money rather than R so results are not comparable across instruments
One principle to anchor the lesson
Risk lives in the distance between entry and stop. Size lives in how much money you are willing to risk on that distance. Everything else is detail. When you fix these two elements the account stops bleeding from one mistake and the equity curve starts to respect your personal pain limits.
The unit formula in plain words
Units equals Account times Risk percent divided by Stop distance
Stop distance equals Entry minus Stop in price units
For futures or forex convert the distance to money with tick or pip value before you divide
Round the result to the venue step size
Percent risk formula and worked example
Set a realistic risk percent
Pick a range between zero point two five and one point zero percent of account per trade
If you are new stay closer to zero point two five
If you are experienced and you follow rules under pressure stay near zero point five to one point zero
Use only capital that is truly available for trading
Define the stop with intent
You can define a stop by price structure or by volatility. Structure is a level that invalidates the setup. Volatility is a multiple of the average true range. Both work if you keep the rule stable. The aim is not to predict a perfect level. The aim is to measure distance so you can compute size with precision and keep loss per trade constant in money terms.
Volatility aware sizing
When the average true range doubles you must expect larger swings. If you keep the same unit count the same entry to stop distance will cost twice as much. A simple way to neutralise this effect is to tie the stop to a multiple of the average true range and then let the unit count float. When volatility rises the unit count shrinks. When volatility calms the unit count grows. Risk per trade stays constant.
Practice example
Risk money equals one hundred
Stop distance equals three point zero in a calm regime
Units equals one hundred divided by three which is thirty three units rounded
If volatility doubles and the stop distance becomes six point zero the new unit count becomes sixteen units rounded
Loss per trade stays near one hundred in both regimes
Portfolio heat in clear numbers
Portfolio heat is the sum of risk money across all open trades as a percent of account. If you allow the sum to balloon during correlated trends you are betting the entire account on one theme. A simple cap keeps you in business.
Set a heat cap between four and eight percent of account
Count correlated positions as one theme for heat
If a new trade would push heat above the cap you must reduce size or defer the trade
Keep a cash buffer for slippage and gap risk
Heat includes correlated risk. Keep combined open risk under your limit
R multiple as the common unit
R is the unit that equals your risk per trade. If you risk one hundred then one R is one hundred. A two R gain is two hundred. A one R loss is one hundred. Because R normalises money across instruments and timeframes you can compare strategies without confusion. When you review your trades in R the mind stops obsessing about price and starts focusing on process.
Expectancy in words and numbers
Expectancy is the average R result per trade. It depends on win rate and payoff ratio. You do not need equations to grasp it. You can compute it with simple mental math.
Practice example A
Win rate equals forty five percent
Average win equals two point two R
Average loss equals one point zero R
For every ten trades wins contribute nine point nine R and losses subtract five point five R
Expectancy equals four point four R per ten trades or zero point four four R per trade before fees
Practice example B
Win rate equals thirty five percent
Average win equals three point zero R
Average loss equals one point zero R
For every ten trades wins contribute ten point five R and losses subtract six point five R
Expectancy equals four point zero R per ten trades or zero point four R per trade before fees
The shape of expectancy changes when volatility changes. If you keep risk per trade constant and let the unit count respond to stop distance expectancy measured in R will be more stable across regimes. That stability translates into better position control and calmer decision making.
Why money management fails in practice
Traders set a risk percent but do not compute units from entry and stop before the order
They move the stop after position entry and invalidate the size calculation
They add to losers because the entry feels almost right and average down risk with no plan
They never reduce size after a loss streak so the book enters a feedback loop where a normal downswing becomes a spiral
They treat wins as proof of skill and losses as anomalies rather than counting both in R and accepting variance
A position sizing workflow you can follow every time
Write the setup and the trigger in one line
Define the stop with a structure rule or with a multiple of the average true range
Measure the stop distance in price units
Select the risk percent that fits your current equity and your mental state
Convert the stop distance to money if the instrument uses ticks or pips
Compute units as Account times Risk percent divided by Stop distance
Round to the venue step size and check that the notional fits practical constraints
Place the order only after the number of units is in the ticket and the stop is written
Scaling with intent
Scaling is not a trick to force a trade to work. Scaling is a way to stage risk through time. The rule is simple. Add size only after the trade earns the right to carry more risk. Reduce risk when momentum fades or when volatility rises.
One simple scale plan
Enter half size when volatility is rising or when the theme is crowded
Add the second half only after the trade moves one R in your favour
Move the stop to reduce open risk when the second half is added
Do not exceed the heat cap across the book after the add
Compute size. Check heat. Execute only if rules align
Comparator versus buy and hold
Buy and hold does not respect a personal pain limit. It lets drawdown float with price. A sized trade fixes the maximum loss in money terms at the start. The difference is not ideology. The difference is the choice to survive.
Practice scenario
Price falls ten percent after entry in a fast regime
A buy and hold position shows a ten percent account drawdown if one position equals the entire account
A sized trade with one percent risk shows a one percent account drawdown by design
The sized trade can take many attempts because capital is preserved for the next signal
Kelly fraction and optimal f cautions
Kelly and optimal f are powerful in theory. They aim to maximise growth for a known edge. Real trading edges drift and sample sizes are small. Full Kelly creates deep drawdowns and can trigger a behavioural spiral. If you decide to use these methods treat the fraction as a ceiling rather than a target and remain near half Kelly or less. Always measure drawdown in R and reduce size after a loss streak.
Loss streak protocol
Loss streaks are part of variance. A simple protocol keeps them from damaging your decision cycle.
After four consecutive losses reduce risk per trade by half
Freeze adds and focus on clean entries only
Review the last ten trades in R and tag any rule violations
Return to the base risk percent only after a new equity high or after a full week of clean execution
Heat management across themes
The book is a living system. A theme can be a sector a factor a style or a macro driver. If four positions express the same theme treat them as one for heat. The market does not care that the tickers differ. Correlation in stress is the rule. The heat cap is your defence against that correlation.
Fees and slippage discipline
Small edges die from friction. If your average win is near one R and your average loss is near one R you must protect that edge by keeping fees and slippage small. Choose venues with adequate liquidity. Avoid market orders during news bursts. Use limit orders to control entry and exit where practical. Assume a realistic round trip fee in your backtests so that live results match expectations.
Journaling that actually helps
Your journal should capture rules and numbers rather than emotions alone. Use a compact template.
Setup name and trigger
Entry price and stop price
Risk money and unit count
Reason for the stop placement
Exit reason and realized R
Any deviation from the plan
Practice drills to build fluency
Speed matters during live markets. These drills train your sizing reflexes.
Drill one. Percent risk to units
Account equals twenty thousand
Risk equals one percent which is two hundred
Stop distance equals zero point eight
Units equals two hundred divided by zero point eight which is two hundred fifty units
Drill two. Volatility step change
Risk equals one hundred fifty
Stop at two average true range equals three point two which gives forty six units rounded
If the average true range rises by fifty percent the stop becomes four point eight and units become thirty one rounded
Loss per trade remains near one hundred fifty
Drill three. Futures or forex conversion
Risk equals three hundred
Stop equals twenty ticks
Tick value equals twelve point five
Stop distance in money equals two hundred fifty
Contracts equals three hundred divided by two hundred fifty which is one contract with a small buffer for slippage
Drill four. Heat check
Four open trades at one percent risk each looks like four percent heat
If three of them are the same theme treat them as one for heat
Effective heat is closer to three percent and a new trade in that theme should be deferred
Checklist before every order
Is the setup valid according to the written rule
Is the stop defined by structure or by a multiple of the average true range
Have you measured the stop distance correctly
Is the risk percent chosen and written on the ticket
Are units computed from Account times Risk percent divided by Stop distance
Does the book stay under the heat cap after this order
Are you in a loss streak that requires reduced size
Common myths to retire
Myth. Bigger size proves conviction. Reality. Bigger size proves you have abandoned process
Myth. A tight stop is always better. Reality. A stop that ignores volatility will be hit by noise
Myth. Averaging down improves price. Reality. Averaging down expands risk without proof that the idea is valid
Myth. A few big winners will save the month. Reality. A few big losers can end the year
How to adapt across timeframes
The rules above are timeframe agnostic. Shorter timeframes require tighter execution and more attention to fees. Longer timeframes require more patience and a wider cash buffer for gaps. In both cases the math does not change. You measure distance. You set risk money. You compute units. You respect the heat cap. You review in R.
Edge drift and regime change
Edges do not vanish overnight. They drift when the crowd learns the pattern or when macro drivers shift. Your sizing process makes you resilient to drift. Because risk per trade is fixed a flat or negative edge bleeds slowly and gives you time to notice and step back. If you see expectancy in R slide over a thirty or fifty trade sample reduce size and review the rule set before you push the gas again.
Putting it all together
A trader who sizes by feel can enjoy a series of quick gains and then give it back in one week. A trader who sizes by rule can be wrong half the time and still grow steadily. The difference is not superior prediction. The difference is the choice to define loss before entry to respect volatility and to cap heat so a cluster of normal losers does not become a personal crisis.
A compact template you can copy
Setup name and timeframe
Entry trigger in one sentence
Stop rule. Structure or two average true range or another clearly written rule
Account and risk percent
Stop distance in price units and in money
Units computed and rounded to step size
Heat check across the book and across the theme
Planned targets in R and exit rules
Bottom line
Risk per trade must be small and stable
Stops must respect volatility
Portfolio heat must remain inside a hard cap
Review results in R and adjust size after loss streaks
Let the unit count float with volatility so risk money per trade remains constant
Education
Education and analytics only. Not investment advice. Test every rule with historical data before risking capital. The lesson below is theory with practice drills you can apply to any liquid instrument and any timeframe.
Kingsoft Cloud (KC) – Turning into an AI Powerhouse🔍 Overview
Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited NASDAQ:KC is rapidly evolving into a major player in China’s AI infrastructure space. With strong foundations in cloud computing and a sharp pivot toward high-performance AI services, KC is riding the wave of digital transformation in China's economy.
🚀 AI Cloud Growth
In Q1 2025, AI Cloud billings soared +228% YoY to RMB 525M.
Now makes up 39% of public cloud segment, up from a much smaller base.
This growth highlights KC's strategic shift from generic cloud to AI-driven infrastructure solutions.
🤝 Strategic Partnerships
Key ecosystem ties with Xiaomi and Kingsoft Corporation.
These integrations create network effects, boosting stickiness, cross-sell potential, and long-term revenue growth.
📊 Financial Turnaround
Q2 2025 revenue: +20.3% YoY, first profitable quarter in company history.
Q1 revenue: +10.9% YoY to RMB 1.97B.
Reflects tight cost control + margin expansion from AI services.
📈 Technical Outlook
Bullish bias above $12.75–$13.00
Upside target: $21.00–$22.00
Watching for consolidation or breakout from recent base.
💡 KC is emerging as a high-growth AI infrastructure play, aligned with national and enterprise trends in China’s digital economy.
USNAS100 Extends Gains on AI Strength & Fed Cut Hopes?USNAS100 – Overview
Wall Street futures rose on Monday, extending last week’s rally as AI-related optimism and softer labor market data boosted expectations for a Fed rate cut later this year. The upbeat sentiment continues to support risk assets, though volatility remains sensitive to policy headlines.
Technical Outlook
The index has stabilized in a bullish zone, maintaining upward pressure above 24,900, with potential to extend toward 25,175, especially if it breaks 25,040.
To confirm a bearish reversal, the price must close a 4H candle below 24,810, which would expose downside targets near 24,580.
Pivot: 25,040
Resistance: 25,175 – 25,390
Support: 24,810 – 24,590 – 24,450
Can NASDAQ Hold 24,600 and Push to New Highs?Hey Traders, in tomorrow’s trading session we are monitoring NAS100 for a potential buying opportunity around the 24,600 zone. NASDAQ remains in an uptrend and is currently in a correction phase, with price approaching a key support/resistance level at 24,600.
Structure: The broader trend is bullish, with price moving within an ascending channel.
Key level in focus: 24,600 — a critical support area aligning with the lower boundary of the channel.
Next move: Holding above this level could set the stage for a rebound toward 25,100, which represents the channel’s upper resistance and potential higher high formation.
Trade safe,
Joe.






















