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Nasdaq100

NAS100 At Major Resistance - Breakout or Reversal?NAS100 Technical Analysis: 🚀 At Major Resistance - Breakout or Reversal? 📉 Asset: NAS100 (NASDAQ 100 CFD) Analysis Date: September 5, 2025 Current Closing Price: 23,639.8 (as of 12:59 AM UTC+4) Timeframes Analyzed: 1H, 4H, D, W Executive Summary & Market Outlook 🧐 The NAS100 is at a critical technical juncture, testing a formidable resistance zone between 23,600 and 23,800. 📊 The index is in a clear long-term bullish trend but shows signs of short-term exhaustion after a powerful rally. This is a classic "make-or-break" level. A decisive breakout above 23,800 could ignite a new leg up towards 24,500, while a rejection here may trigger a significant corrective pullback towards 22,800. This analysis provides a roadmap for both intraday traders 🎯 and swing traders 📈. Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis 🔍 1. Trend Analysis (Daily & 4-Hour Chart): Primary Trend: 🟢 Bullish. Price is above all major Daily Moving Averages (200, 100, 50 EMA), which are aligned bullishly. Short-Term Trend: 🟡 Bullish but Overextended. The rally has been near-vertical, suggesting the market is ripe for a pause or pullback. 2. Key Chart Patterns & Theories: Resistance Confluence Zone 🧱: The current price is battling a massive resistance cluster. This zone includes: A prior major swing high (Price Action Resistance). The 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels from the last significant correction. A potential Bullish Cypher pattern's Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). Elliott Wave Theory 🌊: The rally from the last major low is best counted as a powerful Impulse Wave. We are likely in the final stages of Wave 5 or a complex Wave 3 extension. This implies that while the trend is up, a larger Wave (4) correction is increasingly probable. Typical retracement targets for a Wave 4 are the 38.2% Fib level near 22,800. Ichimoku Cloud (H4/D1) ☁️: Price is trading high above the Cloud on daily charts, confirming the strong bullish trend. The Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is also well above price, indicating sustained buying pressure. However, such extreme extensions often precede consolidation. Gann Theory ⏳: The 23,600-23,800 area represents a key mathematical resistance zone. A daily close above this could open the path to the next Gann angle target. 3. Critical Support & Resistance Levels: Resistance (R1): 23,800 - 24,000 (Key Psychological & Technical Ceiling) 🚨 Resistance (R2): 24,500 (Projected Target) Current Closing Price: ~23,640 Support (S1): 23,200 - 23,400 (Immediate Support & 21-period EMA) ✅ Support (S2): 22,800 - 23,000 (Major Support - 38.2% Fib & Prior Breakout Zone) 🛡️ Support (S3): 22,200 (200-Day EMA & 50% Fib) 4. Indicator Consensus: RSI (14-period on 4H/D): Reading is above 70 on both timeframes, signaling severely overbought conditions. 📛 This is a warning against chasing longs at these highs. A bearish divergence is forming on the 4H chart, hinting at weakening momentum. Bollinger Bands (4H) 📏: Price is consistently riding the upper band, a sign of a strong trend. However, a move back towards the middle band (20-period SMA) is a common next step after such extensions. Moving Averages: The bullish alignment (EMA8 > EMA21 > EMA50) is intact. The EMA 21 on the 4H chart (~23,400) is critical immediate support. Volume & VWAP: Volume has been declining on the most recent push higher, a potential bearish divergence 📉 suggesting a lack of conviction at these highs. Trading Strategy & Forecast 🎯 A. Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 1H Charts): Bearish Scenario (Rejection Play) ⬇️: This is the preferred setup given overbought conditions. Look for bearish reversal candlestick patterns (e.g., Bearish Engulfing, Evening Star 🌟) at or near the 23,800 resistance. Entry: On confirmation of rejection. Stop Loss: Tight, above 23,850. Target: 23,400 (TP1), 23,200 (TP2). Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play) ⬆️: If buyers overpower and we get a strong 1H close above 23,850, a momentum long could be viable. Entry: On a small pullback to ~23,780 (re-test as support) or on the breakout. Stop Loss: Below 23,650. Target: 24,200 (TP1), 24,500 (TP2). B. Swing Trading Strategy (4H - D Charts): Strategy: WAIT FOR A PULLBACK. The risk/reward for new long entries at this resistance is poor. 🚫 The optimal strategy is to wait for a healthy correction to key support zones to add long positions. Ideal Long Zones: 23,200 (shallow pullback) or 22,800 (deeper correction). ✅ Bearish Risk: A daily close below 22,800 would signal a much deeper correction is likely underway, potentially targeting 22,200. Risk Management & Conclusion ⚠️ Key Risk Events: High-impact US economic data (e.g., NFP, CPI) and Fed policy announcements are paramount. 🔥 Any hawkish surprises could be the catalyst for a sharp tech-led selloff. Position Sizing: The potential for increased volatility demands conservative risk management. Never risk more than 1-2% of your account on a single trade. Conclusion: The NAS100 is bullish but exhausted. 🥴 The current resistance zone is a high-risk area for new longs and a high-probability area for a pullback. 🎯 Swing traders should be patient for a better entry. Intraday traders can play the range between 23,200 and 23,800 until a decisive break occurs. The overall trend remains up, but a period of consolidation or correction is the most probable outcome in the near term. Overall Bias: 🟢 Bullish above 22,800 | 🟡 Neutral/Bearish below 23,200 For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by sunya
Nasdaq - Preparing for another correction!🚔Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is starting to look weak: 🔎Analysis summary: Over the course of the past couple of months, we witnessed an incredible rally on the Nasdaq. Following this previous price action, it is quite likely that we will soon see another correction. This could start with the current retest of the channel resistance trendline. 📝Levels to watch: $23.000 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
TVC:NDQShort
by SwingTraderPhilTV
18
Fed cut odds hit 97% ahead of Friday’s jobs report Markets are waiting for Friday’s U.S. NFP jobs report, which could heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. Traders want a result that supports the case for rate cuts but doesn’t raise fears of a weakening economy. The ADP private payrolls report showed 54,000 new jobs in August. Stocks moved higher on the news, as wall street saw the number as weak enough for the Fed to cut rates in September, but not so weak that it signals a recession. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is now a 97% chance the Fed will lower rates when it meets in two weeks.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by BlackBull_Markets
Interesting price action out of the Nasdaq 100Following the Nasdaq 100's rebound from the 50-day SMA at 23,143 on Tuesday, this has delivered two potential bullish scenarios worthy of being added to the watchlist. First is a potential double-bottom pattern at 22,958, with a neckline calling for attention at 23,741. A breakout north of the neckline sheds light on the Stock Index potentially refreshing all-time highs beyond the current record of 23,969 (13 August). Second is a possible morning star bullish candlestick pattern formed from the mentioned 50-day SMA. As a note, traders tend to attack this pattern’s structure by placing buy-stop orders above the pattern’s high (third candle in the formation) and positioning protective stop-loss orders beneath the pattern’s low. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
TVC:NDQLong
by FPMarkets
US100 Trading Plan ¦ Layering Strategy + Macro Sentiment Drivers🚀 NASDAQ100 / US100 Index – Thief Money Heist Plan 🎭 📌 Plan: Bullish Swing / Scalping Setup Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), here’s the heist-style breakdown for US100 🔑: 🏴‍☠️ Entry Style (Thief Layering Strategy) Using layered limit orders for flexibility & precision: • 23200.0 • 23250.0 • 23300.0 • 23350.0 (You may increase limit layers based on your strategy & risk appetite) 📉 Moving Average Pullback Entry Plan • Buy entries on pullbacks to the Fibo level 382 Triangular Moving average zone. • Look for bullish candles confirming the bounce from these MAs. • This offers better risk-to-reward by catching momentum on retracements instead of chasing highs. ❓ Why This Works? • Moving averages often act as dynamic support/resistance in trending markets. • Institutional traders & algos track them heavily, making them high-probability zones. • Combining with layering entries = higher flexibility + reduced risk of mistimed single entry. 🛡️ Stop Loss (Protect the Vault) • Thief SL: @23000.0 • Reminder: Adjust your SL based on your own strategy & risk tolerance. 🎯 Target (Escape Zone) • Overbought + Trap Zone ahead! • Escape target: @23750.0 • Note: Don’t rely only on my TP — secure profits at your own pace and risk. 📊 US100 Index CFD Real-Time Data Sep 03 📈 Daily Change: +133.47 (+0.57%) 📅 Monthly Performance: +0.76% 📆 Yearly Performance: +23.48% 😰😊 Fear & Greed Index 📊 Current Reading: 53/100 (Neutral) 🧐 Interpretation: Market sentiment is balanced, showing neither extreme fear nor greed. Investors are cautious but not panicked. 🧠 Retail vs. Institutional Sentiment 👥 Retail Traders: Moderately bullish (55% Long, 45% Short) 🏦 Institutional Traders: Slightly cautious (50% Long, 50% Short) 🔑 Key Drivers: Mixed signals from manufacturing data and upcoming labor market reports. 📉📈 Fundamental & Macro Score 📊 Macro Score: 6/10 Manufacturing PMI (48.7) still in contraction but improving. Labor market data (JOLTS) awaited for clarity. ⚡ Volatility Score: 5/10 (Moderate) VIX near average levels, indicating stable expectations. 💧 Liquidity Score: 7/10 Strong volume and breadth in large-cap tech stocks. 🐂🐻 Overall Market Outlook ✅ Bullish (Long): 60% Supported by strong yearly gains and resilience in big tech. ⚠️ Bearish (Short): 40% Concerns over manufacturing contraction and inflation pressures. 💡 Key Takeaways 📈 US100 is trending mildly positive today (+0.57%). 😐 Sentiment is neutral—no extreme fear or greed. 📊 Macro data hints at cautious optimism but watch for upcoming labor reports. 🐂 Overall bias leans slightly bullish for long-term holders. 📊 Related Pairs to Watch FOREXCOM:SPX500 TVC:DJI TVC:VIX NASDAQ:NDX FX:USDOLLAR ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #NASDAQ100 #US100 #NDX #SPX500 #DJI #TradingView #SwingTrade #ScalpTrading #LayeringStrategy #MarketAnalysis
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by The-Thief
Nasdaq Computer sector & Nasdaq nearing pullback areaNasdaq Computer (IXCO) Is nearing pullback territory (23,717 resistance). IXCO being the largest sector in Nasdaq (IXIC) means the composite index, now that it's over previous resistance, is also looking for a pullback into support (20,160). It's possible IXCO will break resistance next year and if that happens whatever gains are made will be lost on an eventual drop back into support. If you have call options on NVDA or other tech companies closing them when IXCO hits 23,717 is highly advisable. If it hits there around this January it could be 2 years before IXCO resumes the uptrend past 23,717. Calls will likely get destroyed during this time. Another note is lots of tech IPOs are occurring this year with lofty valuations. When this IXCO pullback comes they are likely to get hit hard. It's a great opportunity to short or wait to buy up the ones you like when the pullback is over. As always good luck and try your best to avoid getting into new tech related trades as this year ends. It's going to be a great idea to have cash ready next year.
NASDAQ:IXCOShort
by bwy
NASDAQ (NAS 100): Short Term Sells to the Weekly +FVG!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 1 - 5th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: NASDAQ (NQ1!) NAS100 The NASDAQ failed to make a new ATH last week, indicating some weakness in the market. Frequently, Swing failures precede reversals, and this seems to be the case on the Daily TF. Look for price to confirm bearish intent, as the sell side liquidity targets draw price down to the +FVG at 22.582. A bullish BOS at current levels would invalidate this trade idea. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by RT_Money
2
Breaking the Vault: SOFI Bullish Heist Plan Unlocked!🚨💼 SOFI Technologies Stock Heist Plan (Swing Trade) 💼🚨 Dear Robbers, Hustlers & Thief OG’s 🏴‍☠️💰 This time the target vault is none other than SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) 📈. We’re planning a BULLISH STOCK HEIST with a layered entry strategy – the Thief’s signature move. 🕵️ Entry Plan The heist doors open at ANY price level 🚪💥. But remember… a real Thief never enters with one strike – we layer in with multiple limit orders (DCA style). 💎 Buy limit layers: 24.00 – 23.50 – 23.00 (you can increase your own layers if greedy 😈). 🛑 Thief Stop Loss (SL) This is the escape hatch 🚨 – SL @ 22.00. ⚠️ Adjust your SL depending on your risk appetite, capital, and strategy. (Every Thief OG has their own exit route 🏃💨). 🎯 Target – The Loot! 💥 Heavy resistance (electric fence ⚡) is spotted around 28.00. So we aim to secure our stolen profits and escape clean at 27.50. Don’t be greedy – once the vault is cracked, take the bag and RUN 🤑💼. 📢 Final Words from the Thief Trading is a heist – not every move is safe, but every plan has an escape. Stick to the layers, respect the SL, and collect the loot at target 🎯. 💖 Smash that BOOST if you’re part of the Thief gang 🔥💼 Let’s rob Wall Street together, one trade at a time 🚀🏴‍☠️
NASDAQ:SOFILong
by The-Thief
XYZ Bullish Setup: Pending Entry & Target Strategy!📌 Asset & Plan XYZ (Block, Inc.) NYSE | Swing/Day Trade Plan: Bullish 💹 (Pending Order Setup) Breakout Entry: Near $83.00 ⚡ (Set alerts to catch the breakout!) 🧩 Thief-Style Layer Strategy Multiple limit layer entries after breakout: $82.00 / $80.00 / $78.00 Scale your positions according to your risk appetite and strategy 📈 Stop Loss: $74.00 (adjust as per your risk) ⚠️ Target: $92.00 🏁 📊 Real-Time Market Snapshot (Sep 1, 2025) Current Price: $79.64 52-Week Range: $46.53 - $98.92 🧠 Investor Sentiment Retail: Moderately Bullish (60% Greed) 🟢 Institutional: Cautiously Optimistic (55% Greed) 🟡 Fear & Greed Index: Neutral → Greed (58/100) 📊 💹 Fundamental & Macro Highlights Fundamentals (6.5/10) ✅ Undervalued by ~29% (Intrinsic Value: $111.64) EPS Growth (2026 Est.): +39.49% YoY Revenue Growth (2025 Est.): +2.92% YoY Strong solvency & healthy gross margins Macro Environment (6/10) 🌍 Market Volatility: Low Safe Haven Demand: Moderate Interest Rates: Stable (Fed rate cuts expected late 2025) 🐂 Overall Market Outlook Bullish Score: 65% 🟢 (S&P 500 inclusion & strong analyst targets) Bearish Risks: 35% 🔴 (slowing revenue growth & competition pressures) 💡 Bottom Line XYZ is undervalued with moderate bullish sentiment. Use layered entries to optimize risk/reward, set alerts for breakout, and monitor macro factors. 🚀 #NYSE #StockTrading #SwingTrade #DayTrade #BullishSetup #BreakoutAlert #LayerStrategy #XYZStock #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketInsights #TradingIdeas
NYSE:XYZLong
by The-Thief
INTEL Heist Playbook: Buy the Dips, Escape Before the Sirens🔓💻 INTEL CORPORATION "Chip Heist" Stock Raid 💻🔓 🎯 Plan: Bullish Robbery | Targeting $30.00 | Stop Loss: $21.00 💰 Layered Limit Entries | Silicon Valley Loot | Calculated Takedown 🚨⚠️ Attention TRADERS, Tech Pirates & Market Mercenaries! ⚠️🚨 The INTC data vault is cracked, and the Thief Trader squad is executing a multi-layer LIMIT ENTRY HEIST – stacking shares like we're loading the getaway van. 🚐💾⚡ 👀 We ain't chasing price – we're ambushing it with precision. Every discount? A planned acquisition. 💥 ENTRY: Any Price Level is a Gift 💥 "Bullish on Silicon" – we're collecting shares on any dip into value town! Deploy buy limits at key psychological support layers: $25.00, $24.00, $23.00 (Add more layers based on your own capital). Thief-style: We don't buy the hype; we steal the undervalued chips. 🛑 STOP LOSS: This is a Thief SL @ $21.00 🔐 Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's), this is set at the breakdown panic zone – where the weak hands get shaken out. Adjust your final SL based on your own risk appetite and strategy. Size wisely. 🎯 TARGET: $30.00 💸 The police barricade is there, so kindly escape with your stolen money before arrival. We're targeting the next major resistance vault. Take profits and live to trade another day. 🧠 Swing Traders? Load the boat. Day Traders? Snatch the quick flips. Investors? Stack and hold. 💵☕ Use a trailing stop loss to protect your capital as the trend accelerates. 🕵️‍♂️ THIEF TRADER INSIGHTS: 📊 Backed by tech sector momentum, oversold bounces, and order block analysis. 🗞️ Earnings? Chip news? = increased volatility = adjust your layers accordingly. ⚠️ HEIST PROTOCOL: ✅ Avoid over-leveraging – this is a layering strategy, not a casino bet. 📉 ✅ Use risk-adjusted position sizing on every limit order. ✅ Discipline is key. The market will deliver the discounts; you just need to be patient. ❤️‍🔥 Hit that 💥 LIKE & FOLLOW 💥 if you're riding with the Thief Squad! Support the strategy. Respect the plan. Stack your gains like a true Market Outlaw. 🔔 Follow for the next HEIST. Big bags only. 💼🚀📈 “The market is a river of money—flowing from the impatient to the patient.” – Thief Trader #INTC #Intel #StocksToWatch #TradingPlan #SwingTrading #StockMarket #Investing #LayeredEntries #ThiefTrader #ChipHeist
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by The-Thief
1
NAS100 Technical Analysis Report - NASDAQ & US Market# NAS100 Technical Analysis: NASDAQ Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Executive Summary Current Price: 23,415.0 (August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) Market Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish with Rate Cut Optimism Primary Trend: Uptrend with consolidation characteristics Key Catalyst: Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech signaling potential September rate cut The NASDAQ-100 continues to demonstrate resilience following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish signals at Jackson Hole, with markets pricing in high probability of September rate cuts. The index benefits from renewed optimism in technology sectors and artificial intelligence themes, though elevated valuations warrant selective positioning. Market Context & Fundamental Backdrop Federal Reserve Policy Outlook Following Powell's Jackson Hole speech, markets have significantly increased bets on a September rate cut. The Fed Chair indicated that "conditions may warrant" interest rate cuts, with the balance of risks to employment and inflation shifting. Current federal funds rate remains at 4.25%-4.50%, but CME FedWatch Tool shows high probability of cuts beginning in September 2025. Economic Environment The US economy has shown resilience despite policy uncertainties, with the dual mandate of the Fed becoming more balanced. Labor market data shows some "unusual" behavior that could become concerning, supporting the case for monetary policy adjustment. Technology Sector Dynamics The artificial intelligence boom remains robust, providing fundamental support for NASDAQ constituents. However, chipmaker volatility has created intermittent pressure on the index, requiring careful sector rotation analysis. Market Performance Context Recent trading sessions have shown volatility, with the NASDAQ experiencing both significant gains and pullbacks. The index closed at 21,449.29 in late August trading sessions, demonstrating the current consolidation phase around elevated levels. Technical Analysis Framework Japanese Candlestick Analysis Weekly Pattern: Long-legged doji formation indicating indecision at current levels Daily Pattern: Inside bar sequences suggesting consolidation before next major move Intraday Patterns: Morning star and evening star formations frequent in 4H timeframe Volume Analysis: Average volume during recent consolidation phase Elliott Wave Analysis Primary Wave Structure: Major Degree: Wave 5 of secular bull market potentially in final stages Intermediate Degree: Subwave 5 of major Wave 5 showing extension characteristics Minor Degree: Currently in subwave 4 correction within intermediate Wave 5 Wave Count Analysis: Impulse Wave: Completed from 2020 lows to recent highs Corrective Phase: Current consolidation representing Wave 4 of larger structure Target Projection: Wave 5 completion targeting 25,000-26,000 zone Critical Levels: Wave 4 support at 22,800-23,200 maintains bullish count Harmonic Pattern Recognition Active Harmonic Structures: Bullish Cypher Pattern: Potential completion at 22,900-23,100 zone ABCD Extension: Current formation targeting 24,200-24,500 Potential Bearish Gartley: Formation risk above 24,800 indicating reversal Fibonacci Confluence Analysis: - 61.8% retracement of major swing: 23,150 - 50% retracement level: 23,400 (current area of interest) - 38.2% retracement: 23,650 - 1.618 extension target: 24,300-24,500 Wyckoff Method Analysis Phase Assessment: Accumulation Phase D - Testing resistance Market Structure: - Sign of Strength (SOS) evident on rate cut optimism - Last Point of Support (LPS) established around 23,000 - Backup to Edge of Creek (BUE) tests showing institutional accumulation - Spring action potentially completed in August lows Composite Operator Activity: Evidence of large player accumulation during recent weakness W.D. Gann Technical Analysis # Square of 9 Application Current Position: 23,415.0 = 152.98° on the Gann wheel Critical Resistance Levels: - 23,409 (153°) - immediate geometric resistance - 23,716 (154°) - intermediate resistance zone - 24,025 (155°) - major resistance confluence Key Support Levels: - 23,104 (152°) - immediate geometric support - 22,801 (151°) - strong support zone - 22,500 (150°) - major psychological and geometric support # Time Theory Application Critical Time Cycles: - September 3-6: 90-degree time angle from recent high - September 21: Autumn equinox - natural market turning point - October 12-15: 144-degree time cycle completion - November 2-8: 180-degree cycle from major low # Price and Time Squaring Analysis Square Root of Price: √23,415.0 = 152.98 Next Significant Square Levels: - 154² = 23,716 (key resistance zone) - 155² = 24,025 (intermediate target) - 156² = 24,336 (extended resistance) - 160² = 25,600 (long-term target) Support Square Levels: - 152² = 23,104 (immediate support) - 151² = 22,801 (strong support) - 150² = 22,500 (major support) # Gann Angle Analysis Primary Angles from Major Low: - 1x1 Angle: Providing dynamic support around 23,200 - 2x1 Angle: Resistance trend line near 23,800 - 1x2 Angle: Long-term support at 22,600 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Cloud Configuration: Tenkan-sen (9): 23,425 - Price slightly below, neutral bias Kijun-sen (26): 23,380 - Price above, mild bullish confirmation Senkou Span A: 23,402 (cloud top) Senkou Span B: 23,150 (cloud bottom) Chikou Span: Above price action 26 periods ago (bullish) Assessment: Price trading at cloud top resistance with mixed signals requiring breakout confirmation for directional clarity. Multi-Timeframe Technical Indicator Analysis 5-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus) RSI(14): 51.3 - Neutral territory with slight bullish bias VWAP: 23,408 - Price oscillating around VWAP equilibrium Bollinger Bands: Middle band at 23,410, bands contracting (low volatility environment) Stochastic: 48.2 in neutral zone Volume: Below average, typical for consolidation phase Key Scalping Levels: Micro Resistance: 23,435, 23,460, 23,485 Micro Support: 23,390, 23,365, 23,340 15-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus) MACD: Histogram near zero line, momentum neutral Williams %R: -52% indicating no extreme conditions Moving Averages: EMA(20) converging with SMA(20) around 23,400 Volume Profile: High volume node at 23,380-23,430 Scalping Strategy Levels: Long Bias Zone: 23,385-23,405 Short Bias Zone: 23,445-23,465 Breakout Alerts: Above 23,480 (bullish) / Below 23,360 (bearish) 1-Hour Chart (Day Trading) RSI(14): 54.7 - Slight bullish momentum without overbought conditions VWAP: 23,395 providing dynamic support ADX(14): 28.3 indicating moderate trend strength Parabolic SAR: Below price at 23,350 (bullish signal) Day Trading Framework: Primary Resistance: 23,500-23,550 Secondary Resistance: 23,650-23,700 Primary Support: 23,250-23,300 Secondary Support: 23,100-23,150 4-Hour Chart (Swing Trading) RSI(14): 58.9 in bullish territory but not overbought MACD: Positive momentum with slight bullish divergence forming Bollinger Bands: Price near upper band, expansion needed for continuation Ichimoku: Price at cloud resistance requiring break for bullish confirmation Swing Trading Levels: Key Resistance Zone: 23,700-23,800 Breakout Target: 24,000-24,200 on sustained break Support Structure: 23,200-23,300 Stop Loss Consideration: Below 23,100 invalidates bullish structure Daily Chart (Position Trading) RSI(14): 61.4 showing healthy bullish momentum MACD: Positive with momentum building Volume: Consolidation pattern with average participation Moving Averages: All major MAs (20, 50, 100, 200) aligned bullishly Position Trading Analysis: Triangle Pattern: Ascending triangle formation approaching apex Breakout Targets: 24,500-25,000 on upside resolution Support Defense: 23,000-23,200 critical for trend continuation Time Factor: Resolution expected within 2-3 weeks Weekly Chart (Long-term Analysis) RSI(14): 65.8 approaching overbought but sustainable MACD: Strong positive momentum with room for extension Long-term Trend: Powerful uptrend since 2020 lows intact Major Resistance: 25,000-25,500 psychological zone Monthly Chart (Strategic View) RSI(14): 71.2 significantly overbought (caution warranted) Long-term Structure: Multi-year cup and handle completion Secular Target: 28,000-30,000 based on pattern measurement Major Support: 20,000-21,000 long-term trend support Comprehensive Support and Resistance Analysis Primary Support Structure 1. 23,380-23,420: Kijun-sen and VWAP confluence (immediate) 2. 23,300-23,350: Previous consolidation zone with volume 3. 23,200-23,250: Triangle support and trend line confluence 4. 23,100-23,150: Cloud bottom and Fibonacci support 5. 23,000-23,050: Major psychological level and institutional interest 6. 22,800-22,900: Elliott Wave 4 support and harmonic completion 7. 22,500-22,600: Extended support and Gann square level Primary Resistance Structure 1. 23,450-23,480: Immediate intraday resistance 2. 23,550-23,600: Short-term resistance and previous reaction high 3. 23,700-23,750: Triangle resistance and Gann confluence 4. 23,900-24,000: Intermediate resistance and psychological level 5. 24,200-24,300: Major resistance zone and measured targets 6. 24,500-24,700: Extended targets and harmonic projections 7. 25,000-25,200: Major psychological resistance and long-term targets Weekly Trading Strategy (September 2-6, 2025) Monday, September 2, 2025 (Labor Day - US Markets Closed) Market Environment: Limited trading due to US holiday Strategy Focus: Pre-positioning for Tuesday's resumed activity International Markets: Monitor for any overnight developments Pre-Market Analysis: Gap Scenarios: Assess any gap formation from Friday's close Global Sentiment: Monitor Asian and European markets for cues News Flow: Fed speakers or economic data releases Tuesday, September 3, 2025 Market Environment: Resumption of full trading after holiday Primary Strategy: Range trading with breakout preparation Volatility Expectation: Above average due to holiday catch-up Intraday Trading Strategy: Opening Range: 23,350-23,480 expected Long Setup: 23,380-23,400 - Stop Loss: 23,350 - Target 1: 23,450 (1:2 R/R) - Target 2: 23,500 (1:3.5 R/R) Short Setup: 23,460-23,480 - Stop Loss: 23,510 - Target 1: 23,400 (1:1.2 R/R) - Target 2: 23,350 (1:2.2 R/R) Key Levels to Watch: Breakout Above: 23,500 targets 23,600-23,650 Breakdown Below: 23,320 targets 23,250-23,200 Wednesday, September 4, 2025 Market Environment: Mid-week momentum potential Primary Strategy: Trend following with momentum confirmation Focus: Economic data and Fed speakers impact Trading Approach: Bullish Scenario: Break above 23,500 with volume - Entry: 23,510-23,530 - Stop: 23,450 - Targets: 23,600, 23,700, 23,800 Bearish Scenario: Break below 23,300 with momentum - Entry: 23,290-23,270 - Stop: 23,330 - Targets: 23,200, 23,100, 23,000 Risk Management: Reduce position sizes by 30% if range-bound continues Thursday, September 5, 2025 Market Environment: Potential high-volatility day Primary Strategy: Breakout trading with volume confirmation Critical Factor: Triangle pattern resolution expected Triangle Breakout Strategy: Upside Breakout: Above 23,650 - Volume Requirement: 150% of 20-day average - Initial Target: 23,800-23,850 - Extended Target: 24,000-24,200 - Stop Loss: 23,550 Downside Breakdown: Below 23,200 - Volume Requirement: 130% of 20-day average - Initial Target: 23,000-22,950 - Extended Target: 22,800-22,700 - Stop Loss: 23,280 Position Management: - Scale into positions on confirmed breakouts - Trail stops aggressively after first target achieved - Monitor sector rotation for continuation signals Friday, September 6, 2025 Market Environment: Week-end positioning and profit-taking Primary Strategy: Consolidation trading and weekly close analysis Focus: Jobs data potential and weekly settlement End-of-Week Strategy: Weekly Close Bullish: Above 23,500 sets up next week advance Weekly Close Neutral: 23,300-23,500 maintains current pattern Weekly Close Bearish: Below 23,300 suggests pattern failure Day Trading Approach: Morning Session: Follow Thursday's breakout direction Midday: Range trading within established boundaries Final Hour: Position adjustments for weekend risk Non-Farm Payrolls Impact: Strong Data: Could delay Fed cuts, potential market negative Weak Data: Supports Fed cut narrative, likely market positive In-Line Data: Maintains current rate cut expectations Advanced Risk Management Framework Position Sizing Matrix Risk Allocation by Timeframe: 5M Scalping: 0.25-0.5% of capital per trade 15M Scalping: 0.5-0.75% of capital per trade 1H Day Trading: 1-1.5% of capital per trade 4H Swing Trading: 1.5-2.5% of capital per trade Daily Position Trading: 2.5-3.5% of capital per trade Dynamic Stop Loss Framework Volatility-Adjusted Stops: Low Volatility (<1% ATR): Stops at 0.75% of entry Medium Volatility (1-2% ATR): Stops at 1.25% of entry High Volatility (>2% ATR): Stops at 2% of entry Timeframe-Specific Stops: 5-Minute Charts: 40-60 points maximum 15-Minute Charts: 80-120 points maximum 1-Hour Charts: 150-250 points maximum 4-Hour Charts: 300-450 points maximum Daily Charts: 600-900 points maximum Profit-Taking Methodology Systematic Profit Realization: First Target (40%): 1:1.5 Risk/Reward ratio Second Target (35%): 1:2.5 Risk/Reward ratio Third Target (25%): 1:4+ Risk/Reward ratio Trailing Implementation: After second target achievement Maximum Exposure Limits Daily Risk Limits: Total Portfolio: Maximum 5% risk across all positions Single Strategy: Maximum 3% risk concentration Sector Concentration: Maximum 40% in tech-related trades Emergency Stop: -2% daily account drawdown triggers cessation Geopolitical and Economic Risk Assessment Federal Reserve Policy Impact September FOMC Meeting: High probability of 25bp rate cut based on recent communications Policy Path: Markets pricing 2-3 cuts through end of 2025 Communication Risk: Any hawkish surprises could trigger sharp correction Independence Concerns: Political pressure on Fed policy creates uncertainty Economic Data Dependencies Labor Market: "Unusual" behavior noted by Powell requires monitoring Inflation Trends: Sticky services inflation remains concern GDP Growth: Resilience continues but tariff impacts uncertain Consumer Spending: Holiday season performance critical for Q4 Geopolitical Considerations Trade Policy: Tariff implementation timeline and magnitude China Relations: Technology sector exposure to policy changes Energy Security: Minimal direct impact on NASDAQ constituents Dollar Dynamics: Strength/weakness affecting multinational earnings Technology Sector Risks AI Regulation: Potential oversight affecting major constituents Semiconductor Cycle: Global chip demand and supply chain risks Cybersecurity: Increasing threat landscape affecting valuations Competition: Antitrust scrutiny on major tech platforms Sectoral Analysis and Rotation Themes NASDAQ 100 Sector Breakdown Technology (45%): Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Meta driving performance Communication Services (15%): Google, Netflix, streaming platforms Consumer Discretionary (12%): Amazon, Tesla leading components Healthcare (8%): Biotech and medical device innovation Other Sectors (20%): Diversified exposure across growth themes Current Outperformers 1. Artificial Intelligence: NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google benefiting from AI boom 2. Cloud Computing: Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure expansion 3. Digital Advertising: Meta, Google capturing online spending shift 4. Electric Vehicles: Tesla maintaining technological leadership Underperforming Areas 1. Traditional Software: Legacy platforms facing cloud migration pressure 2. Hardware Manufacturers: Margin pressure from supply chain costs 3. Streaming Services: Subscriber growth saturation concerns 4. Biotech: Regulatory approval timelines creating uncertainty Rotation Indicators Growth vs Value: Quality growth at reasonable prices favored Large Cap vs Small Cap: Mega-cap technology leadership maintained Secular vs Cyclical: Long-term secular themes outperforming cycles Advanced Pattern Recognition and Trading Setups Ichimoku-Based Strategies Cloud Breakout Setup: Bullish Signal: Price above cloud with Tenkan above Kijun Entry: Break above 23,450 with volume confirmation Stop: Below cloud at 23,150 Target: Measured move to 24,200-24,500 Kijun-sen Bounce: Setup: Price return to Kijun-sen (23,380) with support Entry: Bounce confirmation above 23,400 Stop: Below 23,350 Target: Previous high resistance at 23,650 Gann-Based Trading Approaches Square of 9 Methodology: Long Trades: Buy at 152° (23,104) targeting 154° (23,716) Short Trades: Sell at 154° (23,716) targeting 152° (23,104) Breakout Trades: Above 154° targets 155° (24,025) Time Cycle Trading: Major Turns: September 21 equinox reversal window Minor Cycles: 90-degree angles creating intraweek pivots Momentum Confirmation: Volume spikes during cycle completions Wyckoff Accumulation/Distribution Phase D Characteristics: Testing Supply: Price probing resistance without heavy volume Institutional Activity: Large lot accumulation on weakness Markup Preparation: Successful tests lead to significant advances Distribution Warning Signs: Climactic Volume: Heavy selling on any approach to 25,000 Weakness Signs: Unable to hold gains on good news Phase A Risk: Sharp reversal from resistance levels Market Microstructure and Execution Considerations High-Frequency Trading Impact Algorithm Activity Zones: 23,000 Level: Heavy HFT support algorithm activity 23,500 Level: Resistance algorithm concentration 24,000 Level: Major psychological algorithm participation Optimal Execution Windows: 9:30-10:00 EST: Maximum volatility and opportunity 11:00-11:30 EST: Mid-morning momentum continuation 14:30-15:00 EST: European close overlap activity 15:30-16:00 EST: Final hour positioning Liquidity Considerations High Liquidity Zones: 23,300-23,500 range with tight spreads Reduced Liquidity: Above 24,000 and below 23,000 requiring careful sizing After-Hours Trading: Limited liquidity requiring smaller position sizes Order Flow Analysis Institutional Patterns: Accumulation: Evidence of large block buying 23,200-23,400 Distribution Zones: Monitor for heavy selling above 23,700 Momentum Algorithms: Active participation on breakout moves Technology Integration and Trading Tools Essential Trading Platforms 1. TradingView: Comprehensive charting with advanced indicators 2. Think or Swim: Professional-grade execution and analysis 3. Interactive Brokers: Direct market access and low commissions 4. Bloomberg Terminal: Institutional-grade data and news flow Critical Alert Systems Price-Based Alerts: - Triangle breakout: 23,650 (bullish) / 23,200 (bearish) - Psychological levels: 23,500, 24,000, 24,500 - Gann squares: 23,104, 23,716, 24,025 Volume-Based Alerts: - Unusual volume spikes (>200% of 20-day average) - Block trade notifications (>$10M trades) - Dark pool activity indicators News and Event Alerts: - Fed speaker comments and policy communications - Economic data releases (employment, inflation, GDP) - Earnings announcements from major NASDAQ constituents - Geopolitical developments affecting technology sector Advanced Analysis Tools Options Flow: Monitor unusual options activity for directional clues Futures Positioning: Track institutional positioning in NQ futures Sector Rotation: Monitor NASDAQ sector ETF performance relative to index International Correlation: Track correlation with technology indices globally Seasonal and Calendar Considerations September Seasonality Historical data shows September as traditionally weak month for equities, though technology sectors often show resilience. Current rate cut optimism may override seasonal weakness. Federal Reserve Calendar September 17-18: FOMC Meeting (high probability of rate cut) October 29-30: Next FOMC Meeting December 17-18: Final 2025 FOMC Meeting Earnings Season Timeline Q3 2025 Reporting: October-November period critical for NASDAQ constituents Key Companies: Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Google, Amazon reporting impact Guidance Focus: AI spending, cloud growth, consumer demand trends Holiday Impact Calendar Labor Day (Sep 2): US markets closed Columbus Day (Oct 14): Bond markets closed, equities open Thanksgiving (Nov 27-28): Shortened trading sessions Christmas/New Year: Year-end positioning effects Conclusion and Strategic Outlook The NASDAQ-100 stands at a critical inflection point, benefiting from Fed Chair Powell's dovish pivot while facing elevated valuation concerns and seasonal headwinds. The technical picture presents a compelling consolidation pattern with multiple breakout scenarios, requiring careful risk management and tactical positioning. Key Investment Themes for September: 1. Fed Policy Pivot: Rate cut cycle beginning supports risk assets and growth stocks 2. AI Revolution Continuation: Technology leadership themes remain intact 3. Triangle Resolution: Current consolidation pattern approaching decision point 4. Seasonal Navigation: September weakness vs. Fed optimism dynamic Tactical Trading Priorities: Range Trading: Capitalize on 23,300-23,650 range until breakout Breakout Preparation: Position for triangle resolution with volume confirmation Risk Management: Elevated levels require disciplined position sizing Sector Selection: Focus on AI beneficiaries and Fed-sensitive growth names Medium-Term Outlook (1-3 Months): The combination of Fed policy accommodation, robust AI/technology themes, and strong corporate fundamentals provides a constructive backdrop for NASDAQ advancement. Technical analysis suggests potential for significant upside toward 24,500-25,000 on successful breakout, though any hawkish Fed surprise or geopolitical shock could trigger sharp corrections. Risk Scenario Analysis: Bull Case: Fed cuts + AI momentum = targets 25,000-26,000 Base Case: Consolidation 23,000-24,000 through October Bear Case: Fed disappointment + valuation concerns = correction to 21,500-22,000 Strategic Positioning Recommendations: 1. Maintain tactical long bias with disciplined risk management 2. Focus on high-quality technology leaders with AI exposure 3. Prepare for increased volatility around Fed meetings and earnings 4. Monitor triangle pattern resolution for significant directional moves The multi-timeframe technical analysis framework presented provides robust tools for navigating the current market environment. Success will depend on maintaining discipline around the identified support/resistance levels while adapting to the evolving Fed policy landscape and technology sector dynamics. Traders should remain flexible and prepared for both continuation and reversal scenarios, with particular attention to volume confirmation on any major breakout attempts. The convergence of technical patterns, fundamental catalysts, and seasonal factors creates a complex but opportunity-rich environment for skilled practitioners. --- *This comprehensive analysis integrates multiple technical methodologies with current market fundamentals. All trading recommendations should be implemented within individual risk tolerance parameters and adapted to evolving market conditions. The technology-focused nature of the NASDAQ requires particular attention to sector-specific developments and regulatory considerations.* --- For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade --- Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by sunya
NASDAQ NAS100 at a Crossroads: Riding Nvidias Surge with CautionThe immediate reaction to Nvidia's stellar earnings has been decidedly bullish, propelling the NASDAQ higher. We saw a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" event where the "news" was so powerful it triggered a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) rally with a healthy correction on Friday. In the next one to two weeks, the near-term bias is bullish, but with extreme caution. The market has received the fundamental "all-clear" it was waiting for from its most important company. However, the index is now technically overextended and sentiment is euphoric, making it vulnerable to a short-term pullback or consolidation. The primary trend, however, remains bullish IMO. 1. The Catalyst: Nvidia Earnings Nvidia didn't just beat expectations; it shattered them and raised future guidance, validating the entire AI investment thesis. Revenue & EPS: Significant beats on both the top and bottom lines. Guidance: Q2 revenue guidance of ~$28B was vastly higher than analyst estimates of ~$26.6B, demonstrating unprecedented demand for its Blackwell and Hopper architecture chips. Data Center: Revenue of $22.6B, up 427% year-over-year, is the core of the story. This shows that AI infrastructure spending is not slowing; it's accelerating. Stock Split: The announcement of a 10-for-1 stock split adds a psychological boost for retail investors, improving accessibility and reinforcing bullish sentiment. Analyst Interpretation: This wasn't just a quarterly report; it was a fundamental confirmation that the AI revolution has tangible, massive earnings power. It alleviated fears that the AI trade was a bubble. For the NASDAQ, which is market-cap weighted and heavily influenced by NVDA, this was rocket fuel. 2. Technical Analysis (One-Day Timeframe Post-Earnings) Price Action: The NASDAQ gapped up powerfully at the open, breaking cleanly above its previous consolidation range. This was a strong bullish signal. Volume: The rally was accompanied by massive volume, confirming broad institutional participation. This wasn't a low-volume grind; it was a conviction move. 3. Macro & Fundamental Backdrop Interest Rates: The market is currently pricing in a higher-for-longer stance from the Fed. However, recent economic data (PMIs, jobless claims) has shown slight signs of softening, which keeps hopes alive for a potential rate cut later in the year. A stable, non-accelerating rate environment is acceptable for tech stocks, especially those like Nvidia with explosive earnings growth that outweighs rate concerns. Geopolitics: While always a risk (U.S.-China tensions, elections), the market has largely shrugged off these concerns for now, choosing to focus on the stellar corporate fundamentals. Market Breadth: A key watch-out. The rally has been narrow, led primarily by the "Magnificent 7" (now perhaps the "Fab 1" - Nvidia). For the rally to be sustainable, we need to see broader participation from other sectors and smaller-cap stocks within the NASDAQ. 4. Likely Outcome for the Next 1-2 Weeks: Bullish with a Caveat Bullish Scenario (60% Probability): The momentum from Nvidia is likely to carry the NASDAQ higher in the very near term. We could see a continued "melt-up" towards 17,400-17,500 as underinvested funds are forced to chase performance and add equity exposure. Any dip will likely be shallow and bought aggressively, with the 17,000 level holding firm. Consolidation/Pullback Scenario (35% Probability): This is the most likely healthy outcome. After such a massive, emotion-driven surge, the market is likely to need a period of digestion. We could see the NASDAQ chop sideways for a week or two to work off the overbought conditions. This would reset the momentum indicators and allow the market to build a new base for the next leg higher. This is not a bearish signal; it is a strengthening signal. Bearish Reversal Scenario (5% Probability): A sharp reversal below the 17,000 support level and a fill of the earnings gap (~16,900) would be a significant warning. This would likely require a new, negative macro catalyst (e.g., unexpectedly hot inflation data, a major geopolitical escalation) that forcefully changes the interest rate narrative. Trading & Investment Implication For Bulls / Existing Longs: Hold positions. Consider taking partial profits on extreme strength, but avoid selling your entire position. The trend is your friend. Use any pullback to the 17,000 support as a potential buying opportunity. For New Entrants: Chasing the green spike is high-risk. Be patient. Wait for the inevitable pullback or period of consolidation to establish a position. The risk/reward is poor on the day after a massive gap up. For Bears: Fighting this tape is exceptionally dangerous. The fundamental news from NVDA is a game-changer for the index. Shorting based solely on overbought conditions is a quick path to losses. Final Analyst Call: The next week is likely bullish with high volatility, potentially extending gains. However, the following week is highly susceptible to a consolidation or pullback as the initial euphoria settles. The overall trajectory for the next two weeks is cautiously bullish, with the understanding that a 2-4% pullback is a normal and healthy part of a strong uptrend. The burden of proof is now on the bears to prove they can wrestle control back from a market that just received the best possible news from its most important constituent. Not financial advice, this is just my opinion.
FX:NAS100Long
by fxtraderanthony
Nasdaq Pulls Back from Recent HighsToward the end of the week, the Nasdaq index began to retreat, posting a decline of at least 1.5% in the short term, as a new bearish bias has started to emerge strongly, preventing the index from reaching the historical highs again. For now, the momentum driven by expectations of lower interest rates has begun to fade in recent sessions, while corrections in stocks such as Nvidia—which represent a significant share of the index’s market capitalization—have limited buying pressure heading into the week’s close. Given this backdrop, as the market awaits key economic data, such as the upcoming U.S. employment report on Friday, uncertainty and sideways movements may continue to dominate trading sessions in the near term. Short-Term Sideways Range The lack of clear direction in recent movements has led to the formation of a sideways range in the Nasdaq, currently defined by resistance at 23,800 points and support at 22,800 points. As long as price action remains within these levels, neutrality will likely remain the prevailing scenario in the short term. Technical Indicators RSI: the RSI line is oscillating near the neutral 50 level, reflecting a consistent balance between buying and selling pressure over the past 14 sessions. This suggests that the neutral bias has begun to dominate short-term movements in the index. MACD: the MACD histogram also hovers close to the 0 line, showing that short-term moving averages maintain a neutral bias. As long as this condition holds, the current sideways range is likely to remain relevant in upcoming sessions. Key Levels to Watch: 23,800 points – Main Resistance: corresponds to recent highs in the Nasdaq. A sustained breakout above this level could open the door to a more consistent bullish trend in the short term. 22,800 points – Near-Term Support: aligns with the Ichimoku cloud and stands as the most important barrier for containing short-term downward corrections. 22,200 points – Critical Support: coincides with neutral price areas observed on the chart in February of this year and is also converging with the 200-period moving average. If this level comes under consistent pressure, it could pave the way for a more dominant bearish bias. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by FOREXcom
A Crucial Test Lies Ahead for the Nasdaq 100The Nasdaq 100 faces a major test over the remainder of this week, with Nvidia reporting results after the close on 27 August and the US PCE report due on the morning of 29 August. The index has struggled to regain its losses after peaking on 13 August, facing stiff resistance just below the 61.8% retracement level at 23,670. In addition, the 10- and 20-day moving averages have proved to be sticking points, with the index unable to break away from either. Momentum, as measured by the relative strength index, has also turned lower, forming a series of lower highs. Furthermore, a bearish divergence has emerged, with the RSI making lower highs while the Nasdaq 100 registered higher highs from the end of July through to mid-August. Looking more closely, we see that the Nasdaq 100 had a straight-line rally on 22 August, and such rallies can sometimes be treated in a similar fashion to gaps. As a result, it is entirely possible that the index could give back its recent gains and fall back to 23,210, especially if it continues to struggle to surpass resistance at 23,620. A breakout above 23,620 would be a bullish development despite a number of bearish signals. It would suggest the potential for the index to rise to 23,800 and possibly back to the previous highs. Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management. Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
IG:NASDAQ
by cmcmarkets
Classic tug-of-war NASDAQBias: Still broadly bullish on the daily—no true downside displacement, and price hasn’t closed below the last impulse up. But… we failed to close above recent 2-month highs and are sitting right at weekly equilibrium. Where we are: Price is coiling around the 4H BISI low ≈ 23,790.50, which also aligns with ~50% of the weekly range. Nested inside is a 1H BISI with a bullish 1H OB just beneath. Classic tug-of-war spot. Areas of Interest: Above: 23,929 → PDH 23,962.75 → 24,000 BRN → 24,040–24,080 (upper imbalance). Below: 23,713.50 (50% of 1H OB) → 23,596 → 23,501 → swing magnet 22,684.75 (D1 SIBI high). Tell: The last “new low” on 1H needed two candles to actually close below and did so weakly. That shows sell-side lacks displacement unless we break structure decisively. What flips the switch (clear invalidation logic) Bullish reclaim: 15–60m close back above 23,790–23,804 (ETH close 23,796.5 / RTH close 23,804) and hold on a retest → long side favored. Bearish break: Clean 1H close below 23,713 (and acceptance under it) → short side favored; you’re below the 1H OB and the nested BISI. Two actionable trade plans (Use your 5m/1m execution: wait for displacement through the trigger, then take the FVG or OB retrace inside the HTF level.) A) Reclaim-and-go LONG (higher-probability if we hold above weekly EQ) Trigger: 15–60m close above 23,790–23,804, then a controlled retest that holds (wick below, body close back above). Entry zone: 23,790–23,804 (retest of 4H BISI low / prior close cluster). Invalidation (stop): Below 23,713 (under the 1H OB mid) or tighter under the swing that forms your 5m/1m FVG entry (your call on risk). Conservative SL: 23,690–23,705 (below the OB body). Profit targets: T1: 23,929 (first buy-side pools / inefficiency fill) T2: 23,962.75 (PDH) T3: 24,000 (round-number magnet) T4 (runner): 24,040–24,080 (upper imbalance) Trade management: Partial at T1, move stop to BE after M5 market structure shift in your favor or after T1 prints. Keep a runner if displacement expands. B) Breakdown-and-acceptance SHORT Trigger: Clean 1H close below 23,713 and a retest rejection (can use a 5m FVG inside 23,713–23,730). Entry zone: 23,713–23,730 (failed reclaim of 1H OB mid / underside of the 1H BISI). Invalidation (stop): Above 23,790–23,804 (back inside/above the 4H BISI low and prior closes). Tighter intraday SL can sit above the 5m swing that breaks down. Profit targets: T1: 23,596 T2: 23,501 T3 (optional intraday): 23,440–23,460 (prior 1H demand base, if visible on your feed) T4 (swing only): 22,684.75 (D1 SIBI high) Trade management: Take partial at T1, trail above last M5 LHs. If New York lunch compresses, be quick to pay yourself. Why these are the right spots 23,790–23,804 is a decision box: 4H BISI low + ETH/RTH prior close cluster + weekly EQ. Acceptance above = trend continuation likely; rejection = continuation of the rotation lower. 23,713.50 is the line in the sand intraday: it’s the 50% of your 1H OB and sits just beneath the 1H BISI. Lose it and you’ve removed the nearby bullish sponsor, opening the path to 23,596/23,501. The lack of downside displacement on the last “new low” keeps a bullish continuation on the table—until we get that decisive 1H break/acceptance below 23,713. Execution tips Time-of-day: favor NY AM session for your displacement signal; Monday often ranges → reduce size until one side wins (as you noted). Trigger discipline: do not anticipate the reclaim/break. Wait for the 15–60m close, then execute on 5m/1m FVG back into the level. Risk: if trading the same idea across multiple accounts, stagger entries (one at level, one at 50% of the M5 FVG). Quick reference (levels) Bullish above: 23,804 → 23,929 → 23,962.75 → 24,000 → 24,040–24,080 Neutral box: 23,790.5 (4H BISI low / weekly EQ) ± a few ticks Bearish below: 23,713.5 → 23,596 → 23,501 → 22,684.75
CME_MINI:NQU2025Long
by JP_Tru
Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Tech Stocks Face Sell-OffsNasdaq 100 Analysis: Tech Stocks Face Sell-Offs As the chart shows, the Nasdaq 100 index fell by approximately 1.6% yesterday. According to media reports, bearish sentiment has been fuelled by the approach of key events: → the release of the FOMC meeting minutes (today at 21:00 GMT+3); → Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Market participants are preparing for remarks from the Fed Chair on the trajectory of interest rates. Notably, the S&P 500 declined less significantly, while the Dow Jones remained virtually unchanged. This suggests that: → tech stocks are heavily overvalued due to AI-driven hype; → capital shifted yesterday from risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) into so-called safe havens. Could tech stocks continue to decline? Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Analysing the Nasdaq 100 index chart on 5 August, we plotted the main upward channel (shown in blue). It remains valid, as since then the price has: 1→ reached the upper boundary, which (as often happens) acted as resistance; 2→ retreated to the median line, where volatility decreased (a sign of balance between supply and demand), but only briefly. Yesterday’s low coincided with the lower boundary of the channel. From a bullish perspective, buyers might rely on: → a resumption of the uptrend from the lower boundary (as was the case in early August); → support at the 50% retracement level after the A→B impulse (located around the current price area); → a rebound from the oversold zone indicated by the RSI; → support at the 7 August low of 23,250 (a false bearish breakout remains possible). On the other hand: the price has confidently broken through the channel median and then accelerated downwards (a sign of imbalance in favour of sellers). This imbalance zone (which, under the Smart Money Concept methodology, is considered a bearish Fair Value Gap) could act as resistance going forward. Given the pace of yesterday’s decline, we could assume that sellers currently hold the initiative. Should we see weak rebounds (in the style of a dead cat bounce) from the channel’s lower boundary, the likelihood of a bearish breakout could increase. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:NDQM
by FXOpen
1
NAS100 dropped on 1.32% on August 19NAS100 dropped on 1.32% on August 19 as market participants are waiting for Powell's key rate comments The Nasdaq and S&P 500 dipped on August 19, led by tech stocks, as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on interest rates at the Jackson Hole symposium (Aug. 21-23). Analysts, including James Cox of Harris Financial Group, suggest markets are bracing for a possibly hawkish stance from Powell. Interest rate futures indicate two 25 bps cuts this year, starting in September. Concerns also rose over AI stocks after OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman called them a bubble in a recent "The Verge" interview. The price continued to drop during Asian and early European trading hours and reached the SMA200 on 4-h chart. This moving average is a traditionally strong support. The further rebound towards 23,500.00 level is expected with a final target of 23,700.00.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Long
by ProfessorSingapore
1
NASDAQ: 10:1 R/R Setup - One More High Before Major CorrectionSharing my current outlook on NASDAQ with a high-probability setup offering exceptional risk-reward. 📊 **🎯 The Setup:** I'm expecting one more push to new all-time highs from the yellow line around 23,000. This would offer a **10:1 risk-to-reward ratio** with the stop loss just below the recent low. 🚀 **📍 Yellow Line Logic:** This level represents my experience-based zone just shy of the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. I've observed that when price reaches the 0.786 level, it tends to result in a complete reversal more often than not. This yellow line sits in that "sweet spot" where buyers typically step in. 🎯 **📈 Chart Structure Support:** The overall chart pattern suggests a higher probability of making new highs rather than a complete reversal from current levels. The structure is bullish despite the recent pullback. ✅ **🔄 Bigger Picture Scenario:** After the anticipated new high, I expect a significant retracement back toward the previous high (red line area). However, this would likely be just a healthy correction before the bull run resumes for the remainder of the year. 📉➡️📈 **🧠 Key Insight:** Sometimes the best trades come when the market gives you that "one more push" setup. The risk is small relative to the potential reward, making this a compelling opportunity if the setup materializes. 💡 📈 **This trade setup offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 10:1.** Without including fees, the breakeven win rate for this trade would be approximately 9.09%. Knowing these figures in advance helps me avoid emotional trading. 🧠 💡 **Pro Tip**: If you often find yourself trading based on emotions, I recommend doing this type of pre-planning and quantifying your setups before execution — it can be a simple yet highly effective improvement. ✅ --- **Trading is simple.** You don't need multiple indicators or dozens of lines on your chart. A clean and simple chart often works best — it keeps your decisions consistent and reduces uncertainty. Sure, it might not look flashy, and my analysis may seem a bit "plain" compared to others… but that's how I like it. If you find this analysis useful, feel free to follow me for more updates. --- *Disclaimer: This post is for general informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or a service targeting specific investors, and should not be considered illegal or restricted information in any jurisdiction.*
IG:NASDAQLong
by Hiroyuki-Suzuki