Natural gas starts week higher on demand outlookNatural gas starts week higher on demand outlook
U.S. natural gas climbed to $3.2, supported by forecasts for above-normal temperatures later this month and steady LNG feedgas flows. Demand is expected to stay light for the next six days but rise in mid-September as heat returns.
Prices also gained on supply concerns amid Kinder Morgan pipeline repairs and the anticipated full restart of Freeport LNG. Forecasts for warmer weather across the eastern and southern U.S. added further support.
Despite strong production near record highs, storage remains 2.2% below last year but 5.6% above the five-year average.
Naturalgasanalysis
U.S. Natural Gas holds near 4-week highU.S. Natural Gas holds near 4-week high as storage builds match forecasts
U.S. natural gas stayed near a four-week high Thursday after EIA data showed inventories rose by 55 Bcf to 3,272 Bcf for the week ending Aug. 29, in line with expectations. Stocks remain 2.2% below last year but 5.6% above the five-year average, signaling ample supply despite record LNG exports and strong demand.
Higher production, with dry gas output at 107.1 Bcf/day, continues to pressure prices, while weather forecasts calling for warmer temperatures in mid-September may support short-term demand. LNG flows hit 15 Bcf/day, near record highs, as U.S. exports remain strong amid European and Asian demand.
XNGUSD, Accumulation to Expansion? Weekly Long Into Winter RiskI’ve initiated a long on Natural Gas from weekly structure. Price has rotated inside this area since ’23 and is now reacting at a confluence of trendline support + prior demand. The plan is to hold into Q4, when seasonality (heating demand + potential hurricane/LNG disruptions) often provides upside tailwinds. Risk is defined on the weekly chart; I’ll manage around swings and let the position work.
Technicals (Weekly)
• Range base reclaimed: Price is bouncing from the same 2023–2024 accumulation zone (roughly 2.5–3.0).
• Multi-touch trendline support: Current candle is reacting at the rising base trendline; wicks show responsive buying.
• Structure targets: First objective is a move back into mid-range supply; extension aims toward the upper band shown on the chart.
Fundamentals Supporting Long Bias
• Seasonality: Q4 typically brings rising Heating Degree Days across the Northern Hemisphere; winter risk premia often get priced ahead of the draw season.
• LNG pull: Ongoing ramp in global LNG demand + incremental U.S. export capacity tends to tighten the domestic balance on cold forecasts or unplanned outages elsewhere.
• Supply discipline: Gas rig counts have lagged after the 2024 price slump; that slower supply response can tighten later-year balances if weather cooperates.
• Weather & Gulf risk: Peak hurricane season can interrupt Gulf production and processing, periodically supporting price.
• Europe draw season: As EU storage transitions from injection to draws, import needs rise, keeping a bid under seaborne gas.
Trade Plan:
• Entry: From weekly support (see chart).
• Management: Trail below fresh higher lows on the daily; take partials at fib/structure levels; let a runner target the upper band if momentum broadens.
What Breaks the Thesis
• A persistently warm Q4, outsized storage overhang into winter, major LNG outages/delays, or a renewed surge in production that swamps demand.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
U.S. Natural Gas Face Supply Pressures Amid Global ShiftsU.S. Natural Gas Face Supply Pressures Amid Global Shifts
U.S. natural gas futures climbed above $3 per MMBtu in early September, rebounding from a nine-month low of $2.73 on August 20 as expectations of lower domestic supply gained traction.
Fresh data revealed that Russian LNG exports fell over 6% year-over-year through August, boosting the U.S. share in global LNG trade as Europe and Asia sought alternative sources. This shift has intensified bidding competition for limited U.S. gas supplies, adding upward price pressure.
Storage levels remain tight, with EIA data showing a 3.4% annual decline. On the demand side, ExxonMobil projects global natural gas consumption to increase over 20% in the next 25 years, driven by the transition away from coal.
However, after the Labor Day weekend, U.S. futures slipped 3.5% to $2.893/MMBtu, retreating from Friday’s $3 test. Analysts note that the market is entering the low-demand shoulder season, but a sustained dip in supply could revive bullish momentum, potentially pushing prices above $3.00 later this month.
U.S. Natural Gas Hits 10-Month Low on Cool Weather OutlookU.S. Natural Gas Hits 10-Month Low on Cool Weather Outlook
U.S. natural gas futures slipped to $2.70/MMBtu, the lowest since November 2024, as cooler weather and weaker late-summer demand eased storage concerns. September NG1! fell 0.1%.
Analysts say strong power demand and limited injections expected earlier won’t materialize. Forecasts show below-normal temperatures for the next two weeks, while LNG exports rose to 15.9 bcfd in August. Lower-48 gas output hit 108.5 bcfd, near record highs.
Despite a smaller-than-expected storage build last week (+13 bcf), ample supply and higher production keep pressure on prices. U.S. LNG exports are projected to grow 10% annually through 2030, even as oil output plateaus.
European gas futures also slipped 1% to €33.5/MWh as Norway’s maintenance impact eased and storage builds continue ahead of winter.
2 Month Descending ChannelSeptember natural gas futures plunged to a nine-month low on August 22, dropping 4.5% amid near-record output, ample storage, and cooler weather reducing demand. Despite a rebound in LNG exports, prices have fallen for five straight weeks, down 24% overall.
Record U.S. production in August averages 108.4 bcfd, while storage remains 6% above normal. Demand, including exports, is expected to ease in coming weeks, with LNG feedgas rising to 16.2 bcfd as plants recover from outages. Hurricane activity in the Atlantic poses no immediate threat to U.S. supply. Analysts expect U.S. LNG exports to grow about 10% annually through 2030.
Natural Gas consolidates nearby support level of 3.0000Natural Gas consolidates nearby support level of 3.0000
U.S. Natural Gas has been declining since mid-June, forming the bullish wedge. Since the end of July 4-h RSI shows us bullish divergence, the price consolidates nearby the 3.0000 support level. The price is expected to rise towards 3.4000 level as a first target with 3.6000 as a final target. Additionally, according to seasonals, since the second half of the august, natural gas prices go bullish due to the beginning of the shoulder season, which may be an extra support factor for the asset.
Natural Gas XNG: Trend Reversal or Just a Retracement?Natural Gas (XNG) has been trending bearish 🔻, but we’re now witnessing a bullish market structure shift ⚡— particularly visible on the 4H timeframe ⏱️. At present, price is overextended and pressing into a key resistance zone 📈🧱. I’m watching closely for a retracement back into equilibrium 🔄 within the previous price swing. This could offer a short-term scalp or day trade short setup 🎯.
Should price hold firm at support after the pullback 🛑, we could then begin building a bullish bias and look for long opportunities 📊— depending on how price action develops from there. 🚨 This is not financial advice.
U.S. Hot temperature boosted natural gas prices. For how long?U.S. Hot temperature boosted natural gas prices. For how long?
U.S. natural gas futures rose ~2% August 6 due to near-record LNG export flows and forecasts of hotter-than-normal weather through late August, boosting air conditioning demand and gas use by power plants (over 40% of U.S. electricity). Despite a hot summer, record production has kept gas stockpiles ~6% above normal, with storage likely to grow further.
Technically, price seems to form bullish wedge since mid - August. Price successfully tested the level of 3.0000, still can go on a retest of this level soon once again before some mid-term bullish momentum occurs. Additionally, according to seasonals, since the second half of the august, natural gas prices go bullish due to the beginning of the shoulder season.
Natural Gas Prices Fall to Yearly LowNatural Gas Prices Fall to Yearly Low
Analysing the chart on 22 July, we constructed a descending channel and assumed that natural gas prices would continue to form a bearish market structure of lower highs and lower lows. Since then, the market has declined by almost 10%.
As the XNG/USD chart shows today, natural gas prices are hovering around the psychological level of $3.000/MMBtu. Earlier this week, gas was trading around $2.940/MMBtu — the lowest level of 2025.
According to media reports, the price decline is driven by both high production levels and favourable weather forecasts for August, the hottest month of the year. What might happen next?
Technical Analysis of the XNG/USD Chart
We have updated the descending channel, taking into account the recent fluctuations in natural gas prices.
The chart shows that bearish momentum remains intact — the rise from point B to C appears to be a corrective rebound within the prevailing downward trend, with the following developments:
→ point C formed in the 0.5–0.618 area, which corresponds to classic Fibonacci retracement levels following the A→B impulse;
→ the former support at 0.365 has now become resistance.
Bulls may hope that the current sentiment could shift following tomorrow’s natural gas storage report (scheduled for 17:30 GMT+3). A drop in inventories could potentially trigger a bullish impulse on the XNG/USD chart.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Natural Gas Price Drops by 7%Natural Gas Price Drops by 7%
As the XNG/USD chart shows today, natural gas is trading around $3.333/MMBtu, although yesterday morning the price was approximately 7% higher.
According to Reuters, the decline in gas prices is driven by:
→ Record-high production levels. LSEG reported that average gas output in the Lower 48 rose to 107.2 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, surpassing the previous monthly record of 106.4 billion cubic feet per day set in June.
→ Favourable weather forecasts. Although the peak of summer heat is still anticipated, forecasts indicate that temperatures over the next two weeks may be lower than previously expected.
As a result, today’s XNG/USD chart appears bearish.
Technical Analysis of the XNG/USD Chart
The chart indicates that since mid-May, natural gas prices have been fluctuating within a descending channel (marked in red), with July’s peak (E) highlighting the upper boundary of the pattern.
A key resistance area is now represented by a bearish gap, formed between:
→ the former support level at $3.525;
→ the $3.470 level – which, as the arrow suggests, is already showing signs of acting as resistance.
Under these conditions, it is reasonable to assume that the price may continue forming a downward market structure A-B-C-D-E, consisting of lower highs and lows, potentially moving towards the channel’s median – which approximately corresponds to July’s low (around the $3.200 level).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
U.S. NATURAL GAS - BEARISH WEDGE WORKED OUT. WHAT'S NEXT?U.S. NATURAL GAS - BEARISH WEDGE WORKED OUT. WHAT'S NEXT?
Today, the market opened 2.66% below its closing price on Friday. The current price has already fallen on 4.8% since the closing on Friday, and it is now above the 3.400 support level. I expect further decline, however, with a possible rebound from the current level and pullback towards the SMA50, with a final target of 3.000.
LNG Bull Market: How Geopolitics and Demand Are Fueling XNG🔥 The Natural Gas market presents a compelling risk/reward opportunity with strong fundamental support from ⚖️ supply/demand imbalances and 🌍 geopolitical factors. The technical chart shows a healthy 📊 consolidation after the explosive 🚀 February–March rally, with the potential for another leg higher.
📌 Key Investment Thesis:
• 📈 Structural bull market driven by demand growth outpacing supply
• 🌐 Geopolitical premium supporting price floor
• 🌦️ Weather-driven volatility creating trading opportunities
• 🛳️ LNG export growth providing long-term demand foundation
🧭 Recommended Approach:
• 💰 Accumulate positions on weakness near $3.00–$3.40 levels
• 🎯 Target initial resistance at $4.00, with extended targets at $5.00+
• ⚠️ Maintain disciplined risk management with stops below $2.60
• 👀 Monitor weather patterns and geopolitical developments closely
📊 Risk Rating: MODERATE TO HIGH (due to volatility)
💵 Return Potential: HIGH (⏫ 50–100% upside potential over 12–18 months)
❗ This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.
⚠️ Natural gas trading involves significant risk and volatility.
📚 Always consult with a qualified financial advisor and conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
Natural Gas Prices on the RiseNatural Gas Prices on the Rise
As shown on the XNG/USD chart today, natural gas prices are trading around $3.960 per MMBtu — the highest level in over a month. This week’s series of bullish candles confirms strong demand.
Natural gas is becoming more expensive due to concerns over the military conflict between Iran and Israel. According to media reports:
→ Israel has attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field, and Donald Trump has called for the evacuation of Tehran.
→ Market participants fear that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt oil and natural gas supply chains.
In addition, forecasts of extreme heat in the US and increased demand for gas-powered air conditioning are also pushing prices higher.
Technical Analysis of the XNG/USD Chart
The chart shows that since mid-May, natural gas price movements have formed a narrowing triangle, suggesting a temporary balance between supply and demand.
However, the triangle has been broken to the upside — a sign of demand strength — with the price:
→ breaking through resistance at $3.800 per MMBtu;
→ forming the outlines of an ascending channel (shown in blue).
The following factors could act as resistance to the current upward move in natural gas prices:
→ the upper boundary of the channel;
→ the psychological level of $4.000 per MMBtu, near the May peak.
However, given that the hottest months of summer lie ahead and the situation in the Middle East remains highly volatile, it is reasonable to assume that the upward trend may continue.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Naturalgas long tradeNaturalgas is resisting downside movement as witnessed on chart.
If you see the downward movement of Naturalgas, it is with relatively high volume but it is not coming down as expected from sellers and bouncing back up again as seen 3 times.
Now naturalgas has reached short term resistance zone of 307-310 from which it took support on 9th June, broke it on 10th June, took resistance on 11th and 12th June.
This might be a Change of Character zone for Naturalgas.
And now that Naturalgas is resisting downward movement, we might see breakout of this zone and probable upside movement.
Lastly it is also forming Ascending triangle which is still premature but just for reader's consideration.
Let's watch it on coming days.
NATGAS is Bearish: A Consolidation Phase Could be AheadFenzoFx—NATGAS dipped below $3.43 support on April 14, trading at approximately $3.22. The Stochastic Oscillator exited oversold territory, signaling possible consolidation before a downtrend resumes.
Bearish trends persist below $3.66, with potential price dips toward $3.08.
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Natural Gas Naturally coming down to $2.5 insane drop if soNot only is the world markets showing downside to come, but so are many different commodities.
With so many investors flocking out of natural gas, stocks and even crypto they are most likely trying to find the safer havens to invest in these times.
Right now it looks like Natural Gas wants to come down a whole lot more due to.
🔻 Demand's lower 'cause winter's over and heating needs dropped.
📦 Storage levels are high, so no one's rushing to buy.
💨 Production's still strong, especially in the U.S. — too much supply!
🇨🇳 China's using less energy, so global demand dipped.
💸 Traders taking profits after recent spikes — classic pullback move
And the Technicals also confirm it.
Inverse Cup and Handle
Downtrend Strong
Price>20
Target $2.593
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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NATGAS Found Support at $3.43: Next Target Could be $3.084FenzoFx—NATGAS failed to stabilize below the $3.43 support, resulted in the prices to bounce. As of this writing, Natural Gas trades slighlty above the support.
From a technical perspective. The recent bounce in the price couldn't form a new higher high. Therefore, it is expected for the prices to fall. But, bears must close and stabilize below the $3.43 support for the downtrend to resume.
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NATGAS is Bearish amid Oversold SignalsFenzoFx—NATGAS is in a downtrend, broke below the $3.66 support. The primary trend is bearish, but a consolidation phase is expected.
In this scenario, Natural Gas may test the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.866 before the downtrend resumes. Watch this level for bearish signals, like candlestick patterns.
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XNG/USD Analysis: Natural Gas Price Drops to March LowXNG/USD Analysis: Natural Gas Price Drops to March Low
On 27 January, our analysis of the natural gas chart highlighted the formation of an ascending channel. Later, on 10 March, we noted that the sharp price increase had created technical conditions for a correction.
Since then, as indicated by the arrow on the XNG/USD chart, natural gas prices have declined by approximately 19%.
Why Is the Price of Natural Gas Falling?
- Unseasonably Warm Weather: Atmospheric G2 reported on Wednesday that forecasts now indicate significant warming across the eastern half of the U.S. from 31 March to 4 April. This could reduce demand for natural gas used in heating.
- Rising Inventories: According to the EIA’s forecast, weekly natural gas storage levels are expected to increase by +33 billion cubic feet over the past week.
Technical Analysis of XNG/USD Chart
Looking at the broader trend since the start of the year, the ascending channel (marked in blue) remains relevant. However, bears have pushed the price below its median line, shifting movement into a short-term downward channel (marked in red).
Currently, natural gas is trading near the $3.780/MMBtu level, a key price point that has previously acted as both support and resistance. Whether a bearish breakdown or a bullish rebound occurs largely depends on the upcoming EIA report, scheduled for release at 17:30 GMT+3.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.