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2026 retirement plan.The broader market structure suggests that 2026 could mark the lowest price level ever observed in natural gas, driven not by weakness, but by extraordinary global demand—particularly the explosive energy requirements of large-scale AI data infrastructures. A double-top formation appears increasingly inevitable, supported by highly precise geometric alignment across multiple resistance and support zones. This is not a trading call, but the result of a multifaceted, rigorously detailed market analysis viewed from several technical and structural angles.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by drkhouri
2
Wild Friday and the Weekly HammerFrom a technical-geometric standpoint, Natural Gas is approaching a high-confidence inflection zone. The weekly hammer forming into Friday’s close (12.12.2025) signals potential exhaustion of the recent downside leg and early signs of demand stepping back in. Descending from 5.33 as expected, the move has unfolded cleanly, and the red candle opening on Monday—exactly in line with the anticipated flow—reinforces the directional bias of the current retracement phase The end-goal for this corrective leg is anchored at 3.90, which stands out as the dominant liquidity objective. The structure shows a high—if not near-certain—probability of a retracement into that zone, consistent with the broader technical roadmap already outlined.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by drkhouri
20
Geometrical Projection 2026: a New Bullish Era Sep.2026By early 2026, we anticipate the emergence of a new six-month green candle. Following this, a downward correction is expected, with the possibility—though not certainty—of forming a second peak in May. Ultimately, the projection points toward a retest of the bottom of the current six-month candle, signaling an exit from the five-year descending channel and defining the lower boundary of a new ascending channel. By September 2026, geometric patterns and buyer alignment suggest the potential onset of a new bullish era.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by drkhouri
Lines dont lie-Sep.2026 we have definitively broken out of the descending channel. Currently, the market is facing two potential upward channels. The breakout from the red triangle will determine which of these channels we will follow. Based on anticipated global economic conditions and the market’s geometric dynamics, channel 2 appears to be the more logical trajectory. Price movement toward the borders of channel 2 has so far respected the integrity of the 6-month candle. September 2026 is projected to mark the point where buyers will fully align, completing the dynamic termination of the first wave and forming a significant second-wave structure.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by drkhouri
Multi-Cycle Alignment Points to Sharp DownturnThe chart presents a sophisticated multi-cycle composite model overlaid on the prevailing Natural Gas trend. Notably, all four cycles will converge during the January–February 2026 window, creating a concentrated alignment that signals the likely emergence of the second major peak. When multiple cycles reach their highs in unison, this synchronicity often delineates a critical market turning point—especially here, where prices are confronting significant resistance and aligning with the prior peak from September 2021. This formation suggests a heightened probability of a strong downward phase, potentially initiating a broader structural market correction.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by drkhouri
the Big Picture, and the next Friday weekly HammerFrom a technical perspective, Natural Gas is nearing a high-conviction inflection point. The weekly hammer that will be formed into Friday’s close (12.12.2025) indicates a potential shift in market structure following the optimal accumulation zone around 4.9. This configuration favors a sharp, impulsive rally over the next 2–3 weeks, with a likely target at the long-term channel resistance near 6.4. The emerging double-top formation suggests a setup for a notable momentum reversal. On the macroeconomic side, the ongoing “Great Reset” is expected to exert downward pressure across major risk assets over the next six months. Volatility is rising, and global markets are entering a corrective phase.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by drkhouri
2
Is This the Start of the Next Natural Gas Upswing?💨 Natural Gas (XNG/USD) — “Profit Pathway Setup” 🎯 Swing / Day Trade Edition 📊 Market Overview: The Energies Market is heating up — and Natural Gas is showing its next potential boom move! After a confirmed Moving Average Breakout, bulls are sneaking back in. 🕵️‍♂️ This setup blends discipline + creativity, using the Thief-Trader layered entry method — designed to catch price action efficiently while minimizing emotional errors. ⚙️ ⚔️ Trade Plan (Bullish Setup): Entry Zones (Layered Buys): 🟩 3.500 🟩 3.600 🟩 3.700 (You can expand your buy layers depending on your own comfort and risk plan.) Stop-Loss (Thief SL): 🧯 3.350 — just below the nearest lower-low candle wick. 💬 Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s) — this SL is a personal style choice, not a fixed rule. Manage your risk your way. Target (Profit Escape Zone): 🎯 4.100 — a strong resistance + overbought + trap + distribution zone. 💬 Reminder: I’m not forcing my TP; you’re the boss of your own bag — make your profits, then take them! 💰 📈 Why This Setup Works: 🧠 Technical Confirmation: MA breakout = bullish continuation in progress. 🎯 Layering Strategy: Multiple limit orders reduce average cost + improve flexibility. 🏗️ Structural Setup: Clear accumulation → breakout → markup pattern emerging. 🧩 Exit Logic: Resistance + trap-zone = high-probability exit zone for profit capture. 🌍 Related Assets to Watch (Correlation Check): 💹 NYMEX:NG1! — Natural Gas futures benchmark, strong global mirror. AMEX:UNG — U.S. NatGas ETF; sentiment confirmation. 🛢️ BLACKBULL:WTI / BLACKBULL:BRENT — closely tied to energy flow; when oil strengthens, gas often follows. ⚡ TVC:DXY — dollar strength can inversely impact commodity demand. 💵 FX:EURUSD — macro correlation to risk appetite across energy & FX. Keep eyes on these pairs — their momentum helps confirm or contradict your NatGas bias. 👀 📌 Key Takeaways: ✅ Trend Bias: Bullish 💪 Setup Type: Swing / Day Trade hybrid 🧮 Risk : Reward: Favorable above 1 : 3 ⏳ Holding Window: Short-term → Mid-term (2 – 5 days typical) 🧭 Trade Management: Stick to your plan — don’t chase, layer smart. ⚠️ Pro Tip: If price breaks below 3.350, it’s a signal to step aside — no hero moves. 🛑 Price structure > emotions. Stay patient, and let the plan do the heavy lifting. 🧘‍♂️ ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #NaturalGas #XNGUSD #EnergyTrading #SwingTrading #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #BreakoutStrategy #CommodityTrading #ForexTrading #TradingIdeas #RiskManagement #MarketAnalysis #EnergyMarkets #TradingView #ChartAnalysis
EIGHTCAP:XNGUSDLong
by The-Thief
Natural Gas Attempts to Return to the Year’s Highest LevelsSince October 17, natural gas has maintained a steady bullish bias, posting an appreciation of nearly 43%, which has fueled sustained buying pressure on prices. This upward movement has been supported by increasing inventory levels in countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea, which have ramped up purchases ahead of the winter season and diversified suppliers amid potential sanctions involving Russia. If this pace of consistent buying continues in the coming weeks, the current bullish pressure could become even more significant in natural gas price movements over the next few sessions. Strong Uptrend In recent weeks, buying momentum has remained persistent, with the average upward impulses in natural gas prices forming a solid uptrend, bringing the market closer to the yearly highs near $4.9. So far, the short-term pullbacks have not been strong enough to break this aggressive bullish trendline. As long as there is no consistent selling pressure, the current uptrend is likely to remain dominant in the short term. RSI The RSI line remains above the 50 level, indicating that buying momentum continues to drive price movements. However, the indicator is now approaching the 70 level, suggesting a potential overbought signal. This may imply that, given the speed of the recent rally, the market could experience short-term pullbacks as this imbalance in buying pressure persists. TRIX Overall, the TRIX indicator remains above the neutral level, showing a consistent upward slope. This confirms that the long-term trend remains bullish, suggesting that buying pressure may continue to dominate natural gas price action in the coming sessions. Key Levels to Watch: $4.80 – Resistance: Represents the recent high zone. A breakout above this level could trigger a more aggressive uptrend in the following sessions. $4.46 – Intermediate Support: Marks the most recent retracement area, which could serve as a temporary barrier against short-term downward corrections. $3.84 – Key Support: This is the most relevant retracement level of recent weeks. If prices drop to this zone, it could signal an emerging bearish bias, putting the current bullish trendlines at risk. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:NATURALGAS
by FOREX.com
1
Is This the Start of a Fresh Bull Run in Natural Gas (XNG/USD)?🎯 XNG/USD Natural Gas: The Great Energy Heist! 💰⛽ 📊 Market Overview Natural Gas is setting up for a classic "Ocean's Eleven" style breakout! The 382 Triangular Moving Average has been breached by the bulls, and the trend confirmation is IN. Time to plan our strategic entry into this energy market opportunity! 🔥 The Master Plan: BULLISH Setup Strategy Type: Swing/Day Trade - Cash Flow Management Confirmation Signal: 382 Triangular Moving Average breached to the upside ✅ Entry Method: Buy the dip when TMA confirms the bullish trend 💎 Layered Entry Strategy (Scale In Like a Pro!) ⚠️ IMPORTANT: You can enter at ANY price level after the breakout confirmation! Set alerts on your trading platform to catch the breakout easily. Recommended Entry Layers: 🎯 Layer 1: $3.100 🎯 Layer 2: $3.150 🎯 Layer 3: $3.200 🎯 Layer 4: $3.250 🎯 Layer 5: $3.300 This layering approach helps average your entry and reduces risk! 🛡️ Risk Management Zone Stop Loss: $3.000 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is MY stop loss level based on my risk tolerance. YOU should determine your own stop loss based on YOUR risk management rules and account size. Trade at your own risk! 🎪 Target Zone: The Great Escape! Primary Target: $3.600 🚀 Why $3.600? This level acts as: 🚧 Strong resistance (Police barricade zone!) 📉 Oversold bounce area Potential bull trap zone Exit Strategy: Lock in profits BEFORE reaching the target zone. Secure your gains and don't get greedy! ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is MY target based on my analysis. YOU should take profits at levels that match YOUR trading plan and risk tolerance. Always trade at your own risk! 🔗 Correlated Assets to Watch Keep an eye on these related markets for confirmation: AMEX:UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) - Direct correlation AMEX:BOIL (2x Leveraged Natural Gas ETF) - Amplified moves AMEX:KOLD (Inverse Natural Gas ETF) - Opposite direction AMEX:XLE (Energy Sector SPDR) - Broad energy sector correlation NYMEX:CL1! (Crude Oil) - Energy sector correlation COMEX:HG1! (Copper) - Industrial demand indicator Key Correlation Point: Natural Gas often moves with broader energy sentiment. Watch crude oil and energy sector strength for confirmation of bullish momentum. 📝 Key Technical Points ✅ 382 Triangular Moving Average breakout = Trend confirmation ✅ Layered entries reduce average cost and risk ✅ Multiple timeframe confluence at target zone ✅ Energy sector showing relative strength ✅ Risk-reward ratio favors bulls above $3.000 ⚡ Trading Notes This setup combines technical precision with proper risk management. The TMA breach is a strong momentum indicator, and the layered entry approach allows for strategic position building. Remember to manage your position size according to your account and always have a plan before entering! 🎭 The "Thief Style" Disclaimer 🎪 FOR ENTERTAINMENT & EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY! This "thief style" trading strategy is presented with a fun, heist-themed twist to make technical analysis more engaging. This is NOT financial advice. I'm not a licensed financial advisor, and you should NOT blindly follow any trading setup. Always do your own research, consult with licensed professionals, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Trading is risky, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. This is my personal analysis shared for educational purposes only! 🎭 ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! #NaturalGas #XNG #XNGUSD #EnergyTrading #SwingTrading #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #TriangularMovingAverage #TMA #Breakout #BullishSetup #TradingStrategy #RiskManagement #LayeredEntry #CashFlowManagement #EnergyCommodities #NatGas #CommodityTrading #TrendTrading #PriceAction
EIGHTCAP:XNGUSDLong
by The-Thief
XNGUSD, Accumulation to Expansion? Weekly Long Into Winter RiskI’ve initiated a long on Natural Gas from weekly structure. Price has rotated inside this area since ’23 and is now reacting at a confluence of trendline support + prior demand. The plan is to hold into Q4, when seasonality (heating demand + potential hurricane/LNG disruptions) often provides upside tailwinds. Risk is defined on the weekly chart; I’ll manage around swings and let the position work. Technicals (Weekly) • Range base reclaimed: Price is bouncing from the same 2023–2024 accumulation zone (roughly 2.5–3.0). • Multi-touch trendline support: Current candle is reacting at the rising base trendline; wicks show responsive buying. • Structure targets: First objective is a move back into mid-range supply; extension aims toward the upper band shown on the chart. Fundamentals Supporting Long Bias • Seasonality: Q4 typically brings rising Heating Degree Days across the Northern Hemisphere; winter risk premia often get priced ahead of the draw season. • LNG pull: Ongoing ramp in global LNG demand + incremental U.S. export capacity tends to tighten the domestic balance on cold forecasts or unplanned outages elsewhere. • Supply discipline: Gas rig counts have lagged after the 2024 price slump; that slower supply response can tighten later-year balances if weather cooperates. • Weather & Gulf risk: Peak hurricane season can interrupt Gulf production and processing, periodically supporting price. • Europe draw season: As EU storage transitions from injection to draws, import needs rise, keeping a bid under seaborne gas. Trade Plan: • Entry: From weekly support (see chart). • Management: Trail below fresh higher lows on the daily; take partials at fib/structure levels; let a runner target the upper band if momentum broadens. What Breaks the Thesis • A persistently warm Q4, outsized storage overhang into winter, major LNG outages/delays, or a renewed surge in production that swamps demand. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by AR33_
U.S. Natural Gas — mild weather weighs, trend stays bearishU.S. Natural Gas — mild weather weighs, trend stays bearish U.S. natural gas fell for a third straight session as the latest EIA report showed an 80 Bcf build, leaving inventories 4.3% above the 5-year average. Analysts cite mild weather and an oversupplied market as key drivers. Production remains near record highs at 107 Bcf/day (+3.8% YoY), while demand has dropped 6% YoY. Despite a slightly smaller-than-expected storage build, fundamentals stay weak. Technically, prices broke below local support at $3.40, confirming short-term bearish momentum. On October 17, natural gas prices bounced back, retracing part of Thursday’s losses. Temporary support emerged near $3.36–$3.35, but the recovery looks like a dead-cat bounce. Scenarios: 🔻 Bearish (primary): Below $3.40–$3.42, downside targets remain $3.30–$3.25. 🔺 Bullish (alternative): Above $3.42, a rebound toward $3.50–$3.53 is possible, though momentum favors sellers. In Europe, gas prices stay steady near €32/MWh with 83% storage capacity, while Russian attacks cutting Ukrainian output by ~60% add supply risks heading into winter.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by ProfessorSingapore
Natural Gas — Pressure persists, but a rebound setup buildNatural Gas (Nov)— Pressure persists, but a rebound setup build Natural gas futures extended losses to a 3-week low, weighed down by forecasts for warmer-than-normal U.S. weather through late October. Atmospheric G2 expects above-average temperatures across most of the country between October 20–29, limiting heating demand and capping price recovery attempts. 📉 Fundamentals: - U.S. (Lower 48) dry gas production: 108.5 bcf/day (+5.8% YoY) - Demand: 71.3 bcf/day (-4.8% YoY) - Storage levels: +4.5% above 5-year average, with inventories expected to rise +83 bcf this week (EIA consensus) Active gas rigs: 120 (+2 w/w) 🔥 Geopolitical Context: European gas futures climbed ~2% after Russian strikes on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure cut ~60% of national output, forcing shutdowns at DTEK and Naftogaz sites. The disruption raised supply concerns at the start of the heating season, with EU storage now at 83% capacity versus 93.2% last year. 📊 Technical Outlook: Price is consolidating within the $3.40–$3.53 range, forming a short-term sideways channel. RSI is neutral near 44, and momentum remains weak. A break below $3.40 could trigger a slide toward $3.30, while a close above $3.53 may open the way to $3.60–$3.65. Scenario Outlook 🔻 Bearish scenario (main): A confirmed breakdown below $3.40 would expose $3.32–$3.30 as the next target zone. Momentum indicators support potential continuation lower. 🔺 Bullish scenario (alternative): If buyers reclaim $3.53, we could see a short-covering rally toward $3.60–$3.65, but resistance above remains heavy due to the 200 SMA ceiling. Summary Natural Gas remains range-bound but weak, with sentiment tilted bearish due to macro fundamentals (warm weather + ample storage). Traders should watch for a decisive break of the $3.40–$3.53 zone to define the next directional move.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by ProfessorSingapore
Natural Gas (NG1) Make-or-Break Zone AheadEveryone’s watching Natural Gas right now and for good reason. We’re sitting right at the edge of a big move. Here’s the simple breakdown 👇 ⚡ Hold above $3.00 → Price could chop around (consolidate) a bit. 🚀 Break above $3.56 → That opens the door to $4.10, and if momentum holds, even $5.40. ⚠️ Drop below $3.00 → Then we’re likely heading toward $2.43, and worst case, $2.16. So basically: 👉 Above $3.56 = bullish path 👉 Below $3.00 = more downside ahead This is one of those setups where patience pays; the next breakout could decide the trend for weeks. If you’re tracking NG1 and want help spotting the next move (without all the complicated jargon), DM me; happy to share how I’m mapping my entries and risk zones in real time. Mindbloome Exchange
NYMEX:NG1!
by Mindbloome-Trading
2
Gas prices surge on cold forecastsGas prices surge on cold forecasts On Oct 7 european natural gas jumped to a six-week high, extending a sharp rally as colder weather forecasts and weaker renewable output boosted heating demand expectations. Temperatures in France and Germany are set to fall about 2°C below seasonal norms from mid-October. The market also reacted to Russia’s largest missile strikes on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure since the war began, heightening concerns over potential supply disruptions. Despite the risks, EU storage remains robust at 82.8% of capacity, with Italy at 93%, France at 92%, and Germany at 76.3%. In the UK, gas futures climbed also as the Met Office warned of a sharp temperature drop ahead, likely lifting heating demand. Analysts noted that if damage to Ukrainian facilities proves significant, Europe may need to increase pipeline and LNG imports to stabilize supply.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by ProfessorSingapore
1
Natural Gas Price Hits 2.5-Month HighNatural Gas Price Hits 2.5-Month High As the XNG/USD chart shows today, natural gas prices have risen above $3.600/MMBtu for the first time since mid-July. According to media reports, the rise in gas prices has been driven by: → Weather models forecasting colder conditions, suggesting the heating season may begin earlier than expected; → An EBW Analytics Group note highlighting short-covering activity in the market, which has accelerated the rally (a short squeeze effect). At the same time, chart analysis suggests that the upside potential may be limited. Technical Analysis of the XNG/USD Chart Three factors might restrict further price growth: → The RSI indicator signals extreme overbought conditions. → Price has moved above the upper boundary of the channel (which has been in place since August), indicating that natural gas may be overvalued. → If we view September’s moves as a 3.065–3.315 range, then the target following the breakout on 29 September should be calculated based on the range height — pointing to 3.645. This target has already been reached. Thus, we could assume that the market is vulnerable to a pullback (for example, towards the median of the blue channel). At the same time, the steep upward trajectory (highlighted in orange) remains intact. Therefore, we may see an attempt at a bullish breakout of the July high near the 3.65 level — although, given the factors mentioned above, such a breakout could well prove to be a false one. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XNGUSD
by FXOpen
1
U.S. Gas prices recoverU.S. Gas prices recover On September 29, natural gas finished higher, reversing earlier losses. Prices had initially been pressured by forecasts of warmer-than-normal weather in the coming weeks, but later gained support from other factors — including data showing stronger export demand for U.S. natural gas. According to EBW Analytics, the above-average warmth is expected to limit natural gas demand through the first half of October. Citing DTN’s temperature forecasts, EBW noted that U.S. storage is projected to grow by about 270 bcf between September 26 and October 16. This means that whenever colder weather eventually arrives, markets will be well supplied, which should help cushion any price spikes. Now natural gas (XNGUSD) are trading at $3.39. In Europe storage facilities across the EU have reached 82.5% capacity ahead of winter, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). On September 28, EU countries injected 206 million cubic meters of gas into storage, while withdrawals declined to 28 million cubic meters. Total storage now stands at 90.9 billion cubic meters — the seventh-highest September level in the historical record. Despite this progress, storage levels remain 6.9 percentage points below the five-year seasonal average and well under last year’s 94.2% mark for the same date. Under European Commission rules, member states must fill storage sites to at least 90% between October 1 and December 1 each year, though up to 10% flexibility is permitted under difficult conditions. These requirements are contributing to upward pressure on European gas prices.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by ProfessorSingapore
U.S. Natural Gas holds near 10-week highsU.S. Natural Gas holds near 10-week highs U.S. natural gas futures hovered around $3.20/MMBtu, a ten-week high, supported by lower output. Production in the Lower 48 slipped to 107.4 bcfd in early September from a record 108.3 bcfd in August. The earlier supply surge fueled large storage injections, leaving inventories 6% above the five-year average and 1% higher year-over-year. On the demand side, forecasts call for above-normal warmth into early October, while LNG feedgas flows averaged 15.7 bcfd—slightly below August levels. Longer-term risks remain. Global LNG capacity is projected to expand 60% by 2030, with half of the new supply coming from the U.S. This raises the threat of oversupply, potentially pressuring prices in Asia and Europe. Still, strong domestic demand—driven by slower renewable deployment and rising AI-related power needs—may lend support to U.S. prices. In Europe, gas inventories stand at 82.3% capacity, with France and Italy above 90% and Germany at 76.6%. Softer Asian demand due to milder cooling needs has freed up cargoes for Europe, helping push prices lower. Geopolitical risks remain in focus. NATO–Russia tensions and potential sanctions on Russian energy—including Europe’s ban on seaborne imports by 2027—could disrupt supply and limit downside.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by ProfessorSingapore
U.S. Natural Gas rises, but outlook mixedU.S. Natural Gas rises, but outlook mixed U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% to an eight-week high on August 17, supported by lower daily output and stronger demand forecasts for the next two weeks. However, October contracts retreated from a one-week high on Wednesday, settling slightly lower as traders anticipated a larger-than-average build in EIA inventories. Prices initially spiked midweek on forecasts for late-summer heat across much of the U.S., which is expected to drive up power-sector demand for air conditioning and slow inventory accumulation ahead of the winter heating season. Atmospheric G2 projected above-normal temperatures for September 22–26, with warmer conditions extending into the north-central U.S. from September 27–October 1. On the supply side, higher U.S. production remains a headwind. The EIA last week raised its 2025 output forecast by 0.2% to 106.63 bcf/day, near record highs, with active natural gas rigs recently hitting a two-year peak.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by ProfessorSingapore
Natural gas starts week higher on demand outlookNatural gas starts week higher on demand outlook U.S. natural gas climbed to $3.2, supported by forecasts for above-normal temperatures later this month and steady LNG feedgas flows. Demand is expected to stay light for the next six days but rise in mid-September as heat returns. Prices also gained on supply concerns amid Kinder Morgan pipeline repairs and the anticipated full restart of Freeport LNG. Forecasts for warmer weather across the eastern and southern U.S. added further support. Despite strong production near record highs, storage remains 2.2% below last year but 5.6% above the five-year average.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by ProfessorSingapore
U.S. Natural Gas holds near 4-week highU.S. Natural Gas holds near 4-week high as storage builds match forecasts U.S. natural gas stayed near a four-week high Thursday after EIA data showed inventories rose by 55 Bcf to 3,272 Bcf for the week ending Aug. 29, in line with expectations. Stocks remain 2.2% below last year but 5.6% above the five-year average, signaling ample supply despite record LNG exports and strong demand. Higher production, with dry gas output at 107.1 Bcf/day, continues to pressure prices, while weather forecasts calling for warmer temperatures in mid-September may support short-term demand. LNG flows hit 15 Bcf/day, near record highs, as U.S. exports remain strong amid European and Asian demand.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by ProfessorSingapore
U.S. Natural Gas Face Supply Pressures Amid Global ShiftsU.S. Natural Gas Face Supply Pressures Amid Global Shifts U.S. natural gas futures climbed above $3 per MMBtu in early September, rebounding from a nine-month low of $2.73 on August 20 as expectations of lower domestic supply gained traction. Fresh data revealed that Russian LNG exports fell over 6% year-over-year through August, boosting the U.S. share in global LNG trade as Europe and Asia sought alternative sources. This shift has intensified bidding competition for limited U.S. gas supplies, adding upward price pressure. Storage levels remain tight, with EIA data showing a 3.4% annual decline. On the demand side, ExxonMobil projects global natural gas consumption to increase over 20% in the next 25 years, driven by the transition away from coal. However, after the Labor Day weekend, U.S. futures slipped 3.5% to $2.893/MMBtu, retreating from Friday’s $3 test. Analysts note that the market is entering the low-demand shoulder season, but a sustained dip in supply could revive bullish momentum, potentially pushing prices above $3.00 later this month.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by ProfessorSingapore
U.S. Natural Gas Hits 10-Month Low on Cool Weather OutlookU.S. Natural Gas Hits 10-Month Low on Cool Weather Outlook U.S. natural gas futures slipped to $2.70/MMBtu, the lowest since November 2024, as cooler weather and weaker late-summer demand eased storage concerns. September NG1! fell 0.1%. Analysts say strong power demand and limited injections expected earlier won’t materialize. Forecasts show below-normal temperatures for the next two weeks, while LNG exports rose to 15.9 bcfd in August. Lower-48 gas output hit 108.5 bcfd, near record highs. Despite a smaller-than-expected storage build last week (+13 bcf), ample supply and higher production keep pressure on prices. U.S. LNG exports are projected to grow 10% annually through 2030, even as oil output plateaus. European gas futures also slipped 1% to €33.5/MWh as Norway’s maintenance impact eased and storage builds continue ahead of winter.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by ProfessorSingapore