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Neo Wave

MSTR Headed to Balance Sheet Insolvency?If my wave forecast is correct and BTC trades down toward $23K (ie. 80% log retracement level of the 2023-2025 bull run), MicroStrategy (Strategy) becomes balance sheet insolvent: liabilities (convertible debt + preferreds like STRK/STRF/STRD/STRC) would exceed assets. That doesn’t mean automatic bankruptcy. Their convertibles only cost ~$35M/yr in interest, and even with ~$550–$680M/yr on ~$6.43B at 8–10% in preferred dividends layered on top, they can still cover fixed obligations short-term by liquidating BTC or issuing more equity. That keeps them out of Chapter 11 in the near term. But the trade-off is ugly: Massive dilution from issuing stock at distressed prices, or Selling BTC at $23K just to stay afloat. The real problem is the refinancing wall starting late 2027. With equity wiped on paper and ~$1.1B coming due by early 2028, any refinancing deal will be extremely punitive, handing creditors cheap equity or forcing fire-sale BTC disposals. Market pricing implication: Equity = option value only. Common stock would likely collapse into deeply distressed single digits (<$10), well below NAV, because shareholders sit behind $8.2B in converts and $6.4B+ in high-yield preferreds. So even if BTC really does retrace all the way to $23k, MSTR doesn’t go to $0 right away, but the stock trades like a distressed, over-leveraged call option on Bitcoin, with survival depending entirely on a rebound before maturities hit. BTC Forecast:
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Intuit
USDT DOMINANCE Update (12H)First of all, pay attention to the timeframe | it’s the 12-hour chart, which is a relatively large timeframe. It seems that a bearish structure has completed, which was a diametric pattern. This structure was for wave B. After the completion of this pattern, we expect a wave C of the same degree as waves A and B to form. Be cautious with your buy/long positions, especially in altcoins, since after a short period of confirming the completion of the bearish pattern, the candles might move sharply to the upside. If the candles can hold and consolidate above the flip zone, this growth will continue. Let’s wait and see what happens. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by behdark
4
DOGECOIN Looks Bearish (1D)It seems that Dogecoin is preparing for another decline. A bearish trendline has formed, and the candles are moving below this trendline. Based on the ABC structure, it appears that Dogecoin is pulling back into the red zone to gather more sell orders for a deeper drop. It is expected that upon touching the red box, the price will move toward lower levels. The targets are marked on the chart. A daily candle close above the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
1
New Highs Ahead ? - BTCUSD Elliott Wave AnalysisHello Friends, Welcome to RK_Chaarts, Today we are having Elliott wave theory counts on BTCUSD Bitcoin Chart Analysis The weekly timeframe of the BTCUSD bitcoin chart reveals that we are unfolding Super Cycle Degree Wave (III) in Blue. This wave's sub-divisions, which should total five for a Cycle Degree, are visible. We've completed Waves I & II and begun unfolding Wave III in red. Within Wave III, we are unfolding the 1st wave ((1)) of one lower degree as Primary (Black). This wave will unfold in five sub-divisions of one more lower degree as Intermediate degree in (Blue). Daily Outlook: On the daily outlook, we are currently unfolding wave (4) of Intermediate degree (Blue), a subdivision of wave ((1)) of Primary degree (Black). As wave (4) nears completion, a reversal is expected soon, driving prices toward new highs to complete wave (5) of ((1)). Additional Support Confirmation: Further reinforcing the analysis, the Anchored VWAP's Average is also showing support near 104,000. This confluence of support levels increases the likelihood of a reversal, making it an important level to watch for traders. Key Takeaways: - We're unfolding Cycle Degree Wave III on the weekly timeframe. - Wave (4) of Intermediate degree is nearing completion on the daily outlook. - A reversal is expected soon, driving prices toward new highs. - Anchored VWAP also showing Support nearby current price. Important Wave Theory Considerations: As per wave theory, wave (4) shouldn't overlap wave (1), except in the case of diagonals and triangles. In this scenario, we are unfolding a diagonal, allowing wave (4) to enter into wave (1). However, it's crucial to note that wave (4) should not go beyond the low of wave (2) under any circumstances. If it does, our wave counts would be invalidated. A Word of Caution: Elliott Wave Theory and possible wave counts suggest that the price will make new highs on the chart soon. However, the market is inherently unpredictable and always ready to surprise. Therefore, it's essential to consider "what-if" scenarios in your trading journey. Are we ready for new highs ? As we navigate the complexities of the market, it's vital to remain adaptable and prepared for any eventuality. By acknowledging the potential for surprises and maintaining a flexible mindset, traders can better navigate the markets and make informed decisions. Conclusion: The BTCUSD bitcoin chart is poised for a reversal, driven by the completion of wave (4) and the subsequent unfolding of wave (5). While the analysis suggests new highs are on the horizon, it's essential to remain cautious and consider the unpredictability of the market. Are you prepared for the possibilities that lie ahead ? I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Chaarts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Chaarts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by RK_Chaarts
Why BITCOIN Looks Bearish ? (1D)Let’s break down why Bitcoin looks bearish: 1. A key support line has been lost. 2. Price is sitting on a key level. If this level breaks, bears will take control, and there won’t be any strong support until the green “flip zone” below. Once this key level is lost, it will flip into resistance. 3. The flip zone is still untested. When there’s an untested flip level, the market usually gravitates toward it after creating triggers in multi-timeframes. 4. From the point where we placed the green arrow on the chart, a bullish phase started. That bullish phase (WXY structure) has now completed. 5. The best area for a trend reversal and opening sell/short positions is the red zone. On the way down, set intermediate targets for yourself, secure profits, and trail your stop-loss to lower levels. This outlook will only be invalidated if a daily candle closes above the invalidation level. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
1
PUMP Analysis (4H)From the point where we placed the red arrow on the chart, it seems that the correction of the PUMP has begun. It looks like we are inside a larger-degree ABC, where wave B was a symmetrical correction that has just completed, and we are now in wave C. In the red-marked zone, we are looking for sell/short positions. Targets are indicated on the chart. A daily candle closing above the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis. invalidation level : 0.003910$ For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
1
Bitcoin Is Still Bearish (4H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section As we mentioned in the previous analysis, Bitcoin remains bearish, and our view has not changed. We had considered two scenarios for Bitcoin, and both were bearish Nothing has changed now either | from the current price or slightly higher, Bitcoin may see a serious correction. If the 103k zone is broken to the downside, Bitcoin’s price could correct down to the 93k area or even 86k. Remember: when good news is released but the price cannot rally and make higher highs, the trend is bearish. It means market giants are selling to buy back at lower levels. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by behdark
Bitcoin Looks Bearish (4H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section We identified an **ABCDE structure** in the previous analysis. Currently, the structure remains the same, with only wave **E** appearing to be completed. The price moved close to the **first target** from the previous analysis but was rejected. This rejection seems to mark the beginning of a new bearish wave. Now, it is expected that either from this point or after a slight upward pullback, the price will enter a correction for **wave D** or another bearish wave. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
1
Possible Neutral Triangle Breakout – Key Level at 11.07The chart appears to show a completed neutral triangle (a–b–c–d–e), with a breakout emerging above the upper boundary at 11.07. Wave a looks like a complex structure (possibly elongated flat or flat + zigzag). The rest of the legs are mostly zigzag forms, consistent with triangle rules. False breakdown below wave e followed by a strong reversal. MACD is confirming momentum during the breakout attempt. As long as price stays above 11.07, this breakout may be sustained. If confirmed, the next target zone could align with the height of the triangle projected upward.
NASDAQ:APLDLong
by MagicCrow
US Crude oil Spotits neo wave alternative count for wave 1 of wave C in lower degree and it wave C of Wave 2 or Wave A let see. Earlier posted little different wave 1 count and wave 2 count for wave C let see which one fit as in progress . In both case near $67 is invalidation point. Also bearish gartley and other harmonic pattern developed which I shown in charts in previous post. I am not SEBI registered analyst and its not buy , sell and hold recommendation and having position in it in mcx.
CFI:WTI
by ManishDamani663ab2f2a8cf4dde