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Labor Market vs. Inflation Risks: What Traders Should WatchCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:MES1! CBOT_MINI:YM1! CBOT:ZN1! CBOT:ZB1! ECONOMICS:USNFP The stock market is currently holding near all-time highs. Today, the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) report, which includes the NFP (non-farm payrolls), will be released at 7:30 am CT. Market participants are closely watching the non-farm payrolls, with the forecast at 75K, as well as any prior revisions to earlier NFP numbers. The unemployment rate is expected at 4.3%, a slight increase of 0.1%. Looking ahead, upcoming key events include inflation data and the September FOMC rate decision: • Aug PPI (Sep 10): A gauge of upstream price pressures. Hot numbers would signal renewed inflation risks. • Aug CPI & Core CPI (Sep 11): Critical headline data. A softer print would support the dovish case. • Fed Decision (Sep 17): This meeting comes after the Aug NFP data release (Sep 5). While there is broad optimism and euphoria in the market, we remain cautious based on our analysis of major futures indexes. Traders should be mindful of signals that could point to a pullback. Our reasoning: Markets are currently pricing in two 25 bps cuts for the September and October FOMC meetings, which would bring the target rate down to 3.75%–4.00%. Additionally, markets are now pricing in four 25 bps cuts in 2026. Prior to the Jackson Hole meeting and recent Fed-related developments, expectations were for three cuts in 2025 and two cuts in 2026. Does this imply that the effective tariff rate is benign? Is inflation expected to fall, or does this suggest that the Fed is willing to tolerate average inflation in the 2.5%–3.0% range? The upcoming Fed meeting is likely to emphasize risks to the labor market, while downplaying inflation risks, highlighting the tradeoff within the Fed’s dual mandate. Other considerations: Seasonal and cyclical flows also suggest that equity indexes tend to underperform in September and October on average. Risk-Monitoring Framework: Signs of a Pullback Given the deteriorating macro backdrop, further steepening of the yield curve, persistently high long-end yields, and the heavy concentration of stock market capitalization in the Mag 9 stocks, it is critical to monitor: 1. Rates & Yield Curve • 2s10s & 5s30s steepening: Excess steepening with long-end yields above 4.5% would tighten financial conditions. • SOFR futures spreads: Divergence vs. FOMC guidance can signal rate-path misalignment. 2. Labor Market Signals • NFP revisions: Downward revisions of >50K would reinforce labor weakness. • Unemployment rate: Sustained above 4.3% could mark a turning point for the Fed’s labor mandate. 3. Inflation Data • PPI upside surprises: A risk that supply-side shocks re-ignite inflationary pressures. • CPI/Core CPI stickiness: Core >3.1% YoY would challenge the market’s dovish pricing. 4. Equity Market Internals • Mag 9 leadership: Watch for relative weakness in NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META, TSLA, GOOG, AVGO, and BRK.A. • Breadth indicators: Advance/decline line and % of S&P 500 above 200-day MA. Narrowing breadth = fragility. • Volatility (VIX): A spike above 20 would indicate stress returning to equity risk sentiment. 5. Cross-Asset Indicators • Credit spreads (IG & HY): Widening signals stress in funding markets. • USD & Commodities: Rising USD and higher energy prices would tighten global liquidity. Conclusion While optimism remains strong, we caution that macro deterioration, yield curve dynamics, and concentrated equity leadership create fragility. Pullback risks rise if: • NFP disappoints sharply, • inflation re-accelerates, or • outperformance in the Mag 9 begins to roll over. Traders should monitor these risk indicators closely, as they often precede market drawdowns in September–October.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by EdgeClear
GOLD → ATH retest before NFP. High risk level...FX:XAUUSD remains in a bullish trend, but short-term dynamics depend on NFP. A break above $3578 will open the way to new highs, but profit-taking at record levels could increase volatility. Gold remains strong ahead of US NFP data, which may confirm the Fed's policy easing. Weak data (forecast: +75K new jobs) will reinforce expectations of a rate cut and support gold. However, the risk of a correction is quite high, and any nuances could trigger liquidation. Weak employment data, namely rising unemployment and low ADP figures, are strengthening bets on a Fed rate cut, which overall only increases interest in the metal. Resistance levels: 3564.5, 3578.5 Support levels: 3545.9, 3526, 3508 NFP data will determine the short-term trend. A weak report will lead to growth to $3600+, while a strong report will lead to a correction to 3450-3400. Technically, I expect a correction after the local bullish structure breaks down. It is not worth trading on the news; it is better to wait 20-40 minutes after the release to make decisions based on fundamental data. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
10
Fed cut odds hit 97% ahead of Friday’s jobs report Markets are waiting for Friday’s U.S. NFP jobs report, which could heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. Traders want a result that supports the case for rate cuts but doesn’t raise fears of a weakening economy. The ADP private payrolls report showed 54,000 new jobs in August. Stocks moved higher on the news, as wall street saw the number as weak enough for the Fed to cut rates in September, but not so weak that it signals a recession. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is now a 97% chance the Fed will lower rates when it meets in two weeks.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by BlackBull Markets
NASDAQ on the Edge: Head & Shoulders + Bearish SeptemberOn the daily chart, a clear Head & Shoulders formation has developed: left shoulder in mid-July, head in early August, and right shoulder completed at the end of August. The neckline has been broken with volatility, and price is now retesting the supply zone at 23,600–23,800. This pullback aligns with a weekly area of strong supply, suggesting a potential rejection. The projected target of the pattern points toward 22,800–22,600, an area overlapping with a key structural support. RSI shows bearish divergence and remains below the midline, reinforcing the short bias. COT Report (August 26, 2025) Non-Commercials (funds/speculators): +1,875 longs, -362 shorts → small long increase, but without strong conviction. Commercials (hedgers): -5,832 longs, -1,579 shorts → clear reduction in long exposure, less bullish protection. Net change: -5,275 longs → overall unwinding of long positioning, signaling underlying weakness. Interpretation: Speculators remain net long, but commercials significantly cut exposure, suggesting caution on further upside. Seasonality (September) Historically, September has been a negative month for NASDAQ: 10-year average: -148 pts 5-year average: -313 pts 2-year average: -804 pts The seasonal pattern supports a bearish bias, with weakness usually concentrated in the first half of the month. Synthesis & Trade Bias Technical: Bearish Head & Shoulders → target 22,800–22,600. COT: Net long reduction by commercials → bearish pressure. Seasonality: September statistically weak. ➡️ Bias: Short on NASDAQ (NQ).
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
This week’s main event: Non-Farm Payrolls – Friday at 15:30!This Friday, September 5, 2025 at 15:30 EET , the U.S. Department of Labor will release one of the most anticipated macroeconomic reports — the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) . This release could confirm whether hopes for a near-term Fed policy shift are justified — the very hopes that helped U.S. equities climb to historic highs in late August. Markets see this report as a checkpoint for both the ongoing rally and rate expectations. NFP and the markets: 3 possible scenarios Strong report: If job creation exceeds expectations, unemployment falls, and wages accelerate — markets may believe the Fed will stay cautious on cutting rates. Typically, this boosts the dollar and bond yields, while growth stocks and tech underperform. More traditional sectors like banking, industry, and energy tend to hold up better. Gold and crypto often dip under pressure from a stronger USD and rising yields. Weak report: If job gains disappoint, unemployment rises, and wage growth slows — this strengthens the case for a faster Fed pivot. In this case, the dollar usually softens, yields fall, and growth stocks, gold, and major crypto (BTC/ETH) gain on expectations of lower rates. Neutral report: If numbers align closely with forecasts and there’s no big surprise, markets may remain range-bound. Initial reactions fade quickly, and focus shifts to the details — such as wage data and revisions to past reports. Price action often becomes choppy and short-lived until the next key catalyst. The September 5 NFP release is a crossroads moment before the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting. Volatility is almost guaranteed, and the market’s reaction will depend on the combination of headline jobs number, unemployment rate, wage growth, and revisions. According to FreshForex , this setup offers tactical trade setups across forex, metals, and crypto pairs.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Swiss CPI declines, will SNB revert to negative rates?The Swiss franc has edged lower on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8052, down 0.13% on the day. Swiss inflation declined in August for the first time since January. CPI slipped 0.1%, following the July reading of zero and the market estimate of zero. Yearly, CPI rose 0.2%, unchanged from July and in line with the market estimate. The soft inflation report could support the case for the Swiss National Bank to return to negative interest rates. The SNB had a negative rate policy in effect for eight consecutive years until 2022, when high inflation forced the bank to sharply tighten policy. The markets widely expect the SNB to hold rates at this month's meeting, but if inflation continues to sag, there will be pressure on the central bank to lower rates. SNB President Martin Schlegel has stressed in the past that the central bank could revert back to negative rates if necessary but would try to avoid doing so since it causes difficulties for businesses and consumers. The SNB is also keeping a close eye on the value of the Swiss franc. The Swiss currency has soared against the US dollar, gaining 11.3% since the start of the year. In June, USD/CHF fell below the psychologically significant 0.80 level for the first time 2011. The central bank does not want the franc to continue appreciating, since it means that Swiss exports are more expensive and thus less competitive. US tariffs have dealt a blow to the export-reliant Swiss economy. Switzerland has had to absorb US tariffs of 39% on most goods, which has put the country at a serious disadvantage against the neighboring European Union, which faces tariffs of only 15% on most goods. The USUSD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.8045. Next, there is resistance at 0.8054 and 0.8064. 0.8035 and 0.8026 are providing support
by OANDA
US job numbers this week. Keeping an eye on USD and US indicesWe are keeping a close eye on the US job numbers this week, as those fall into the Fed's spotlight. The expectations are low, so it would be interesting to see if the numbers can get even lower. Let's take a look. MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX FX_IDC:EURUSD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
D
by Marketscom
BULLISH Tone for EURUSDEURUSD attempts to sell are still met with a rejection from buyers and at the same time buy attempts are slowed by sellers. Despite Powell changing his Hawkish stance, the dollar is held back by good GDP and traders already anticipate NFP growth which means Hawkish for the dollar. So this week if THE 1.17200 resistance zone holds the pair will likely retest deeper. Therefore, any better than expected NFP will be bad for Powell dovish remarks. ISM is expected to be out tomorrow and I am looking forward to more buy positions if it comes out lower than expected. Buys momentum seem to still be there. If NFP confirms buy we are likely to reach 1.18900 zone.
Long
by WisdomArnold
1
NAS100 - Stock Market, in the Work Week!The index is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour time frame and is in its short-term descending channel. If this channel is maintained and the specified range is reached, a close sale can be made with a suitable reward. Economists anticipate that customs tariffs will push consumer prices higher while slowing economic growth in the coming months. Inflation is expected to accelerate, though not to the extreme levels of the 1970s when the term “stagflation” was coined to describe the combination of high inflation and economic stagnation. Unlike a recession—where the economy contracts and prices fall—stagflation features rising prices despite economic weakness. The U.S. economy could be heading toward a 1970s-style stagflationary environment, though analysts believe this time it will be far less severe. Many experts argue that the U.S. is on the verge of a period of sluggish growth paired with accelerating inflation. The root cause lies in President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which simultaneously raise consumer costs and weigh on the labor market. However, economists expect this inflationary wave to be much milder than the double-digit annual increases that strained household budgets in the 1970s. On the corporate front, Nvidia released its second-quarter earnings last week. Revenue reached $46.7 billion, exceeding analysts’ expectations of $46.23 billion. The company’s data center unit—the main growth driver—generated $41.1 billion, slightly below the $41.29 billion forecast. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.05, while the adjusted gross margin stood at 72.7%. Looking ahead, Nvidia projected third-quarter revenue of around $54 billion, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2%. Its board also approved an additional $60 billion share repurchase program. Regarding China, the company reported zero sales of H20 chips to Chinese clients during Q2 and stated that no shipments are planned for that market in the near future. In the earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that the Chinese market could present a $50 billion opportunity for Nvidia this year. He estimated annual growth in China at nearly 50%, noting that the country is the world’s second-largest computing market and home to half of global AI researchers. Huang stressed that maintaining a presence in China is vital for the company’s long-term future, even amid ongoing political and trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. On the monetary policy side, UBS warned that weakening the independence of the Federal Reserve—especially following Trump’s threat to remove Fed board member Lisa Cook—could have significant economic consequences. In its analysis of Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, UBS described it as “classic Powell”: hinting at the possibility of a September rate cut to offset tariff effects but lacking a broader long-term framework for the evolving economy. UBS emphasized that failure to strongly defend Fed independence could heighten political risks and destabilize markets.The bank warned that if the central bank comes under political influence, potential outcomes include the reemergence of inflationary instability, a one-percentage-point increase in real borrowing costs, and negative effects on fiscal policy, corporate investment, housing affordability, household savings, and speculative activity. This week begins with one fewer trading day due to the Labor Day holiday, yet the economic calendar remains packed, with the labor market at the center of attention. On Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August will be released, followed by the JOLTS job openings report on Wednesday. Thursday will be particularly important, bringing the August ADP private payrolls report, weekly jobless claims, and the ISM Services Index—all at once. These data points are especially significant given the recent large revisions to the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which have renewed focus on the degree of convergence or divergence between ADP and NFP figures. Historically, ADP and NFP reports have often diverged, leaving traders mispositioned when relying too heavily on ADP data. A recent example occurred in July, when ADP reported a decline of 33,000 jobs, while NFP the following day showed a gain of 147,000—well above expectations of 110,000. However, after NFP revisions, the actual trend proved more consistent with ADP’s numbers. The most important event of the week will take place on Friday: the release of the August U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. Investors will be monitoring it closely, as any signs of labor market weakness could reinforce expectations for a Fed rate cut in mid-September. Despite growing stagflation risks and heightened market volatility, Bank of America (BofA) suggested that autumn could be an attractive entry point for bullish investors. The bank cautioned that while volatility may exert short-term downward pressure, potential pullbacks could serve as buying opportunities. The VIX volatility index fell to its lowest level of the year following Powell’s dovish remarks at Jackson Hole. Still, concerns about stretched stock valuations, a potential AI-driven bubble, and political risks tied to Fed independence suggest that this calm may not last.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
EUR/USD range and USD/CHF breakdown risk into payrollsIn a shortened US week, August jobs data will be the key event. Nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, wage growth, the ADP report, the JOLTS, and Challenger job cuts will all reveal whether the labour market continues the sharp slowdown seen in prior releases. For Europe, attention will be on inflation prints from both the Eurozone and Switzerland, providing fresh direction for EUR- and CHF-linked pairs. On the 4H chart, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1680, caught in a choppy sideways range. Price has repeatedly tested both support near 1.1640 and resistance. Strong jobs data could weigh on the pair and push it back below 1.1640, while weaker labour data may allow a breakout toward 1.1740–1.1780. USD/CHF shows a rounding top pattern on the 4H timeframe, with price pressing the neckline near 0.8000. Sellers have steadily pushed lower highs since mid-August, and this pattern could hint at further downside momentum.
by BlackBull Markets
EURUSD: NFP and JOLTsThe most important macro data for the US economy posted during the previous week was related to GDP growth rate. As posted under the second estimate, the GDP Growth rate stands at 3,3% on a quarterly basis, which was higher from market expectations of 3,0%. The second important indicator was the PCE Index posted on Friday, which is Fed's favorite inflation gauge. As per posted data, the PCE was increased by 0,2% in July, bringing it to the level of 2,6% on a yearly basis. Both figures were in line with market forecasts. The Core PCE was standing at 0,3% in July. The Personal Income in July was increased by 0,4% on a monthly basis, while personal spending was higher by 0,5%. As for other data posted for the US economy, the New Home Sales in July dropped by -0,6% for the month, which was lower from forecasted -1,1%. The Durable Goods Orders in July dropped by -2,8% compared to previous month, slightly lower from forecasted -2,5%. On the other hand, the Durable goods orders excluding transportation were higher by 1,1% in July, beating forecasted -0,4%. The CB Consumer Confidence was standing at 97,4 in August, a bit higher from market estimate of 96. The Pending home sales in July dropped by -0,4% for the month, above market estimate of -0,2%. Friday brought final figures for University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which closed the month at 58,2. The inflation expectation stands at 4,8%, and 3,5% for the period of next five years. Both figures were lower from market forecasts. The Ifo Business Climate in Germany reached 89,0 in August, modestly above estimated 88,6. The GfK Consumer Confidence for September in Germany is standing at -23,6, slightly higher from market expectations of -21,3. The final Consumer Confidence for the Euro Zone ended August at -15,5, which was in line with the forecast. Retail Sales in Germany in July dropped by -1,5% on a monthly basis, which was significantly higher from forecasted -0,3%. Retail sales are still holding in a positive territory of 1,9% when compared to the previous year. The Unemployment rate in Germany in August was 6,3%, unchanged from the previous month. The inflation rate in Germany preliminary for August reached 0,1% for the month and 2,2% on a yearly basis. Monday started with a strong correction of the eurusd currency pair from the level of 1,1720 down to 1,16 support. This level managed to sustain selling pressure, so the market reverted back toward the 1,1686, where the currency pair is closing the week. The RSI continues to oscillate around the level of 50 indicating that the market is still not ready to clearly decide on a trading side. At the same time, the MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without any indication of a potential slowdown in the coming period. For one more time since the start of August, the support level of 1,16 managed to resist the selling pressure. This is indication that currently, this level holds strong grounds. The reversal to the upside during the second half of the previous week indicates a high potential that the resistance at 1,17 might be tested at the start of the week ahead. At this moment on charts, there is no clear indication that 1,17 could be clearly breached toward the upside. It should be considered that two currently important macro indicators for the US economy, the NFP and JOLTs, will be posted in a week ahead. Any deviation of these figures from market expectations, might trigger the breach of the 1,17 level and the move toward the 1,18 as the next short term resistance. However, in case that there are no surprises, then there is equal probability that the market might revert for one more time back toward the 1,16 support. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in July, Inflation rate flash for August in the Euro Zone, Retail Sales in the Euro Zone in July, USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI in August, JOLTs Job Openings in July, ISM Services PMI in August, Non-farm Payrolls in August, Unemployment rate in August
by XBTFX
2
BTC 4H Analysis – Key Triggers Ahead | Day 27💀 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you ! ⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 4-hour timeframe timeframe . 👀 In the 4-hour timeframe of Bitcoin, we can see that Bitcoin is moving inside a descending channel where each time it touches the top or bottom of the channel, it shows a reaction to these levels and then leaves a reversal move. Currently, Bitcoin has an important support at the 107,400 area, and if this level breaks, it can move towards its lower supports. On the other hand, there is a resistance at the 109,700$ area, and breaking this resistance could give us a long position. ⚙️ Our key RSI zone is at the 30 level, and the fluctuation is ranging above this level in a close environment. With an increase in volatility and selling pressure, if RSI passes below 30, it could be a confirmation for a deeper correction. 🎮 With a Fibonacci tool, we are going to identify Bitcoin’s key levels. The Fibonacci is drawn from the 117,000$ breakout area down to the 107,300$ support area. The price behavior at the 0 and 0.236 levels can help us for taking trades. 📊 In the 4-hour timeframe of Tether dominance, we can see that similar to Bitcoin but with an ascending difference, it is moving inside a channel. The 4.52% area is very important, as the midline of the channel is located here. In the previous leg of movement, it also reacted to this area and got rejected. Breaking this area could bring more selling pressure into the market and also on Bitcoin. 🕯 The size and volume of the red candles at the breakout zones are getting bigger, each time accompanied by higher selling volume. The presence of maker buyers is seen between the two highlighted zones. With an increase in Bitcoin’s volume, it can start its main trend. Keep in mind that we are in the holiday season. 🔔 The zones considered as alarm zones are the 107,400$ area and the 109,600$ area. The price action in these zones can help us with our trades. With an increase in Bitcoin’s volume, it could break one of these levels and move either up or down. Keep in mind that August has ended, and in the new month we have 3 important news events from the Federal Reserve, which could either bring strong inflows into the market or pull money out of it. ❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
by CryptosWinter
NFPUSDT Forming Bullish PennantNFPNUSDT is showing a promising technical setup with the formation of a bullish pennant pattern, a classic continuation signal that often leads to strong upward momentum. After a strong upward leg, the price has entered a brief consolidation phase, creating a pennant structure that is now hinting at the possibility of a breakout. The market volume is supportive, which strengthens the bullish outlook and suggests that traders and investors are closely watching this move. The expected gain for NFPNUSDT is projected between 40% to 50%+, which aligns with the measured move from the pennant formation. This makes the setup attractive for short to mid-term traders aiming to capitalize on breakout opportunities. If the breakout sustains with strong volume, the next resistance levels could be tested quickly, providing momentum-driven gains. Investor interest in this project continues to grow, which could serve as a catalyst for further upside. With the combination of strong technical structure, solid volume, and increasing market participation, NFPNUSDT has the potential to see significant price appreciation in the coming sessions. Monitoring the breakout level will be key for traders looking to enter at optimal points. ✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and ✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is You opinion about this Coin) Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
Long
by Alpha-GoldFX
NFP/USDT — Descending Triangle, Watch for Breakout or Breakdown?The pair NFP/USDT is currently at a critical juncture. The chart shows a clear Descending Triangle pattern: a series of lower highs (seller pressure) aligned with a falling trendline, while a strong horizontal support zone around 0.047 – 0.062 continues to hold as buyers defend it. Typically, this formation suggests a bearish continuation, but as the price approaches the triangle’s apex, the probability of a bullish breakout also rises if supported by strong volume. In other words, NFP is now in a “do or die” position — preparing for its next major move. --- 🔎 Technical Structure & Key Levels Main Pattern: Descending Triangle → generally bearish bias, but breakout upside is possible. Current Price: ~ 0.0697, very close to the apex, signaling an upcoming strong move. Strong Support Zone: 0.047 – 0.062 (demand area repeatedly tested). Key Resistance near trendline: 0.077 – 0.087 (bullish breakout confirmation zone). Next Resistances: 0.1105, 0.1414, 0.1696, then 0.2726 – 0.3231, and 0.4421 (major historical resistance). --- 📈 Bullish Scenario — Breakout Potential If NFP breaks above the descending trendline and closes a daily candle above 0.077 – 0.087 with strong volume, a medium-term reversal could be underway. 🎯 Short-term target: 0.1105 🎯 Next targets: 0.1414 – 0.1696 🎯 Extended targets: 0.2726 – 0.3231, up to 0.4421 if momentum sustains 🔑 Additional confirmation: successful retest of the breakout zone, proving buyer strength. --- 📉 Bearish Scenario — Breakdown Continuation If price breaks below the strong support 0.0472, the descending triangle confirms as a bearish continuation pattern. 🎯 First target: 0.036 – 0.030 (next historical support zone). 🎯 Deeper targets possible if selling pressure accelerates. 🔑 Additional confirmation: failed retest of the broken support, turning into resistance. --- ⚖️ Key Takeaways NFP/USDT is at a decision point. The descending triangle is tightening and a big move is near. Bias: Slightly bearish due to the pattern, but bullish reversal remains possible with a breakout above 0.087 and strong volume. Conservative traders: Wait for confirmation before entry. False breakouts/breakdowns are common without volume. Risk management is crucial: set stop-loss below the support zone for longs, or above breakout levels for shorts. --- As price approaches the apex of the triangle, volatility usually spikes. That means a decisive move is coming soon — either a breakout rally or a bearish continuation. For now, NFP/USDT is a must-watch: will buyers flip the script, or will sellers win the battle? #NFP #NFPUSDT #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #DescendingTriangle #SupportResistance #Breakout #BearishOrBullish #CryptoTrading
Long
by CryptoNuclear
How Potentially Manipulated NFP Data Could Affect BTC's PricBitcoin rallied last Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's prepped the market for an interest rate cut in September. However, these gains have faded, with Bitcoin back to where it started last Friday; around $112,000. The market's focus is now shifting to the upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, scheduled for release next week, which could greatly influence interest rates expectations. Strong job data may reduce the likelihood of a September rate cut. And with an Orwellian portrait of Trump now hanging from the Department of Labor Building, and his administration potentially pressuring the Bureau of Labor Statistics to inflate job numbers, this scenario is becoming a real possibility. If this happens, we could expect price action to test the lower Fibonacci retracement levels, such as the 141.4% at around $109,900 or further at $108,700.
BLACKBULL:BTCUSD
by BlackBull Markets
USDJPY Rebound Faces 148.300 Resistance, Eyes on 146.900 Target!Hey Traders, In today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around 148.300 zone. USDJPY has been moving lower overall, with price currently correcting toward the 148.300 area. Structure: The broader bias has been bearish, but recent price action is showing a short-term pullback. Key level in focus: 148.300 — previously acted as support/resistance. Next move: Rejecting this zone could resume the bearish move, with 146.900 as a potential target since it aligns with the partial trend and a key support area. A break above 148.300, however, would question the downside bias. Monitoring how price reacts around 148.300 to see whether sellers regain control or if the correction deepens. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
26
Will The Soft NFP Data Resume the Strength of Dow Jones?Macro approach: - The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced this week, rebounding strongly as risk appetite improved following last week’s pullback, supported by a soft jobs report and easing global tariff concerns.  - Sentiment was aided by the Fed’s increased hopes of a near-term rate cut after Non-farm Payrolls missed expectations, prompting a 1.3% surge on Monday. Broader market sectors responded favorably to resilient earnings and softer economic prints.  - The index may remain sensitive to upcoming US inflation data, US service sector data and Fed communications, with labor market softness and further trade headlines poised to influence direction this and next week. Technical approach: - US30 significantly rebounded yesterday, erasing half of the losses from the last 5-losing streak last week. The price is hovering around EMA21, indicating a short-term sideways momentum and await for an apparent breakout to determine the trend. - If US30 breaks above key resistance at 45000, the price may surge further to test the Fibo Extension confluencing area around 46800. - On the contrary, failing to hold above the support at 43325, confluence with EMA78, may prompt a deeper correction to the following support at 41750. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by DatTong
Australia inflation gauge hits 20-month high, Aussie gains grounThe Australian dollar has extended its gains on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6483 up 0.22% on the day. The US dollar made inroads last week against all the major currencies except the yen and gained 1.5% against the Australian dollar. Australia's Melbourne Institute inflation guage soared 0.9% m/m in July, up sharply from 0.1% in June and marking the highest rise since Dec. 2023. The MI gauge, which provides a monthly guide to consumer inflation (official CPI is published quarterly), will no doubt raise concerns at the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has been cautious about cutting rates due to inflation worries. Last week, CPI for the second quarter eased to 1.9%, down from 2.2% in Q1 and just below the central bank's target of 2%-3%. This cements a rate cut at the Aug. 12 meeting, after the RBA shocked the markets last month when it held rates. The markets had widely priced in a rate cut but the RBA defended its non-move, saying it wanted to see additional inflation data. The week ended with a softer-than-expected US employment report. Nonfarm payrolls for July rose by only 73 thousand, missing the market estimate of 110 thousand. Adding to the bad news, the June and May reports were both revised sharply lower, down by a combined 258 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2%, up from 4.1%. The weak July reading and the downward revisions indicate that the labor market may be cooling more quickly than initially anticipated. The weak numbers support the case for the Fed to lower interest rates at the next rate meeting in September. The likelihood of a cut has climbed to 75%, compared to 63% on Thursday. The soft jobs report should serve as a wake-up call regarding the effect of US tariffs on the economy, as the employment picture is worse than previously thought.
by OANDA
XAUUSD - Will Gold Continue to Rise?!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its medium-term ascending channel. A correction towards the demand zone would provide us with a better risk-reward buying position, and if it rises, we could consider selling it in the supply zone. After a relatively quiet summer, the release of disappointing U.S. employment data brought a sharp shift in the gold market’s momentum, sparking a wave of optimism among Wall Street analysts. Gold ended the trading week near the short-term resistance level of $3,350—an area that, according to Kitco’s weekly survey, reflects a surge in bullish sentiment among market analysts. This market turnaround happened rapidly. At the start of the week, gold came under selling pressure as economic data revealed that U.S. GDP grew by 3% in the second quarter. However, many economists questioned the reliability of this growth, noting its heavy dependence on volatile trade balance figures, which makes it a poor indicator of sustainable economic strength. Midweek, another headwind emerged for gold. The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, and in a press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that no decision had been made yet regarding the September meeting. His cautious tone was captured in the statement: “We haven’t made any decisions about September.” However, these remarks quickly lost weight. Just two days later, U.S. employment data significantly missed expectations, dramatically reshaping the outlook for monetary policy. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy added only 73,000 jobs in July—a number far below forecasts. Moreover, previous job gains for May and June were sharply revised downward, with a total of 258,000 jobs removed from earlier estimates. The updated figures showed only 14,000 jobs added in June and 19,000 in May. This disappointing data alone was enough to reignite expectations of a rate cut at the September meeting—an outcome that immediately boosted gold demand. David Morrison, adopting a cautious stance, emphasized that although the jobs data favored gold, the market remains stuck in a narrow trading range, with limited evidence of a sustained short-term rally. He explained, “Despite the significant gains last week, gold is still consolidating within a defined range. To break above $3,400 again—and more importantly, to hold it during any retracements—we’ll likely need a period of corrective volatility and price consolidation.” Morrison also pointed out that the recent gold price rally was driven more by a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar than by internal factors within the gold market. “This sudden spike was largely a result of the unexpected downturn in the dollar following the release of the weak non-farm payroll report (NFP),” he said. He further warned against over-interpreting a single data point: “Yes, the report has increased the odds of a rate cut in September, but we’re dealing with highly volatile data. It’s just one number—alongside a negative revision—and it can’t alone dictate the course of monetary policy.” Meanwhile, investment bank Citi has raised its three-month gold price forecast from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce. The expected trading range has also shifted—from $3,100–$3,500 to $3,300–$3,600. According to Citi, this upward revision is driven by weak U.S. economic growth, heightened concerns about inflation linked to tariffs, and a weakening U.S. dollar. The bank also cited poor labor market data in Q2 and growing doubts about the credibility of the Federal Reserve and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. At the same time, investment demand for gold remains strong, with steady central bank purchases helping to sustain the metal’s favorable market position.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
EURUSD – Retest in Play After NFP Reversal?EURUSD started last week with a heavy bearish tone, dropping 200 pips on Monday alone — which is quite a move for such a typically stable pair. After a brief consolidation around the neckline support of the recent double top, sellers came back in, pushing the pair down to 1.1400 by Friday — a level I highlighted in my previous analysis. But then came NFP... The weak jobs data triggered a sharp bullish reversal, and the euro took off like a rocket. By the weekly close, the pair had rallied all the way back to the neckline zone, now acting as potential resistance. ________________________________________ 🔍 Technical Outlook: This area around 1.1550–1.1590 could now serve as a retest of the broken structure. • 🔽 A rejection here, followed by a break back below 1.1500, would confirm the bearish scenario and open the door for a move toward 1.1200, the next major support. • 📌 On the flip side, a sustained move above the neckline would invalidate the double top — and put bulls back in control. ________________________________________ Conclusion: Watching for sell signals around the neckline makes technical sense — but confirmation is key. The reaction early this week will likely set the tone for the next major swing. Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
8
GOLD Weekly Recap & Outlook (Week 31 | July 28 – Aug 01)Note: Some elements may shift depending on your screen size. View the full snapshot in perfect layout: 📈 CAPITALCOM:GOLD Timeframe: 30m | MJTrading View ⸻ 🔹 Weekly Performance • Open: 3,320.06 • High: 3,363.63 • Low: 3,268.05 • Close: 3,363.05 Gold delivered a classic Smart Money move this week: liquidity sweep, structural shift, and bullish expansion. ⸻ 🔹 Price Action Breakdown 1️⃣ Early Week: Bearish Continuation • Price opened around 3,320 with a gap and extended last week’s bearish leg. • Formed lower lows (LL) and a bearish flag, signaling continuation. 2️⃣Midweek: Liquidity Grab, Reversal Point and • Last Bearish leg marks the exhaustion gap and stop run. • Market printed a liquidity sweep below 3,310 then 3,280 (weekly low), trapping late sellers. • Smart Money likely absorbed sell-side liquidity before initiating the reversal leg. • This aligns perfectly with SMC principles: sweep → accumulation → expansion. 3️⃣ Late Week Rally • Following NFP & Unemployment Rate news, price broke 3,333 and rallied strongly to 3,363.63 confirming a Bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS). • Resistance turned into support, validating the accumulation phase. • Price rallied strongly to 3,363.63,. • The weekly candle flipped bullish, closing near the high, with Smart Money leaving a clear footprint of accumulation and expansion. ⸻ 🎯 Key Levels & Outlook • Support: 3,355 → 3,333 - 3,340 • Resistance: 3,377 → 3,380+ • Bias: Bullish above 3,333. • Watch for liquidity sweeps of intraday lows to catch new long entries, targeting 3420-3440. ⸻ 💡 MJTrading View: A structural shift and weekly strong close confirms bullish intent into next week. As long as 3,333 holds, dips are buying opportunities. ⸻ Please share your opinions... #MJTrading #GoldAnalysis #SmartMoney #LiquiditySweep #PriceAction #MarketStructure #Forex #TradingView #ChartDesigner #BullishMarket Fortnight Overview: Psychology Always Matters:
CMCMARKETS:GOLDLong
by MJElahifx
1
What to trade if you can't trust jobs data? U.S. President Donald Trump has dismissed the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reportedly in response to jobs figures he disagreed with. This raises concerns about the integrity of government-reported economic data, especially ahead of the next key Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release on September 5. This upcoming report also includes the BLS’s annual revision, adjusting past job growth figures from April 2024 through March 2025. Goldman Sachs “estimate a downward revision on the order of 550,000 to 950,000 jobs—or a reduction of 45,000 to 80,000 jobs per month over the April 2024 to March 2025 period.” Given macro uncertainty and signs of distrust in U.S. economic data, the bid for gold may persist. Gold has rebounded sharply in recent sessions, breaking a short-term downtrend and climbing back above the 3,360 level. Price has now retraced more than 50.0% of the July 24–31 selloff. The pair may be Short-term bullish, if price holds above 3,310.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull Markets
4
THE KOG REPORT - NFPTHE KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. Following on from the FOMC KOG Report which worked quite well, we’ll stick with the same chart and for today suggest caution. It’s the first day of the month and the last day of the weekly candle. The close here for gold is important and will give us further clues to the next few months. We’ve shared the red boxes and the red box targets are below. There is a key level above 3306-10 which will need to be breached to correct the move back up to the 3330-34 region for the weekly close. However, we now have an undercut low which is potential if there is more aggressive downside to come and that level is sitting around the 3240-50 region which for us may represent an opportunity for a swing low. We’re a bit low and stretched here to short and as we’ve already hit our target for the day so we’ll wait for the extreme levels and if hit and our indicators line up, we may take some scalps. Otherwise, as usual on these events, the ideal trade will come next week. RED BOXES: Break above 3290 for 3295, 3306, 3310 and 3320 in extension of the move Break below 3275 for 3267, 3260, 3255 and 3250 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
19