Wild Week Ahead For Nifty on the verge of cup and handle BO.Till Thursday the situation was like 11 overs 100 to win with 8 wickets in hand. Bears pulled one tight over and took a wicket on Friday. Now If someone tells you the team chasing needs 95 runs in 10 overs with 7 wickets in hand with one well set batsmen at the crease and a 'Cricketing Goat' coming in to bat along with well set batsman. Would you like to watch this T-20 match? Obviously you we will say,"Bring it on!" Very exciting match ahead. Right! Well we have a similar match going on between bulls and bears.
Nifty is on the verge of a cup and handle Breakout. In the last throw of dice Bears tried to marinate some negativity on Friday where Nifty closed at 25327 after making a high of 25448 during the week. The correction from high was also due to few technical reasons like high RSI and overbought market zones on daily and hourly charts.
The other reason was that current round of Trade talks between US and Europe are also not yielding some concrete results and Pakistan is going all out with strategic defense deal with KSA. Such deals have more or less no 'locus standi' either in reality or on the market but certainly they 'on paper' seem to be supporting our enemy state. The new GST rates will come into effect from next week which can be a great news for some sectors at the same time some sectors can come out as on the wrong side of the stick.
What to expect? Lot of volatility and sectoral changes. Mutual Funds / HNIs / FII and other DII will try to readjust their portfolio. Such situation can throw wild swings. Intraday trading and short term positional trading will be very risky. F&O traders should be very careful with their positions. They can make or terribly break your banks. Long term retail investors should go with the flow and steer their ship with minute adjustment to their sail or make calculated adjustments if required. Avoid knee-jerk reactions in any case.
If the cup and handle Breakout happens on Nifty we can swifty reach the previous ATH (All Time High or make a New high within this quarter. If the Cup and Handle / Trend-line Break out fails Nifty will be again send back to search for supports. This week Nifty did try to get a trend line breakout but it did not succeed still the form and momentum looks good. on Friday FII and DII both were on the buying side. This means there are chances that positive momentum can continue making shadow of the candle green.
Supports for Nifty currently remain at: 25139, 24792, 24432 and finally Mother line support of 50 Weeks EMA at 24191.
Resistances for Nifty remain at: Zone between 25403 and 25668 strong resistance zone which includes major Trend line resistance and highs of the year 2025. Above this zone the next resistance can be seen in the chart at 26007 and 26277 (All Time High of Nifty).
As described in the first paragraph the game is in balance right now with possibilities of Breakout and Breakdown remaining almost equal with Bulls currently having a slight edge. Volatile month end awaits with a chance of big red or green candles to be seen in the next 2 to 3 weeks. Very interesting time ahead lets see how the cookie crumbles.
So it is like a team chasing in a T-20 needs 95 runs in 10 overs with 7 wickets in hand with Two well set batsmen at the crease. Bring it on!
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Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
