Trading with the Trend, $NYXNyx Gaming Group has just had a 46% price increase in the past two weeks up until its peak. Price is now very overbought and as stated on the chart there are several bearish indications of why this is a good short sale. Also as you can see on the chart, price recently bouced back from the top lin reg line as it did a couple months ago. Price target is middle lin reg line.
On Balance Volume (OBV)
CS is being accumulatedAfter a downtrend $CS reached multi-decade lows.
It appears that here Credit Suisse Group stock was, and still is, being accumulated.
Currently it looks to be completing phase C to enter phase D.
Trading with the Trend, $EDRAs you can see by looking at this chart, price action has been following the upwards linear regression channel. It has just bounced from trading at the bottom lin reg line and is showing several bullish indications as stated on the chart. My price target is around the upper lin reg line (green rectangle).
Trade valid until price closes below bottom lin reg line.
Trading with the Trend, $APH$APH, Aphria Inc. has been uptrending for months now. Using the lin reg lines you can see that it has bounced off of the top and has recovered using the mid line as a support. As stated on the chart there are several bullish indications and Im looking for a price target somewhere along the top lin reg line (green rectangle on chart).
Trade valid until price closes below mid lin reg line.
GOM Looking Very BullishGolden Dawn Minerals is showing a lot of bullish signs that it is ready for a potential new high. Support has been found at the 50MA as it has before, and the StochRSI is showing an oversold signal with the MACD about to cross to a bullish signal. Also I like this trade because volume has been continuing to increase and it is showing strength with a large bullish candle.
JCP Bullish TriangleBullish triangle on the JCP chart, watch for a breakout if the price clearly passes and closes above resistance. Chart also has clear indicators of a stong trend with the DMI showing an uptrend and the Aroon showing new uptrend. Would like to see an increase on the OBV along with the others for clarification of a strong trend though.
Horizontal Horizontal movement this stock looks good for swing and position trades. Or as an option trade straddles and strangles. However one interesting aspect is that the OBV is in a trend upward, precluding an long run trend.
Contrast Weekly vs Daily Timeframe OBV and RSI indicate a possible bounce to the upside. Keep eye on intraday for continuation downward or break to the upside. If you wanna play both sides a straddle or strangle option strategy two or three months out might be ideal. For a one sided trade check OTM (out-the-money) contracts and the Vol in the options contracts relative to the strike price before purchase - 220 and 125 or 200 and 140 strike price might be ideal. Also don't wait to long to purchases options contract, because as directional price movement becomes more apparent and as Implied Volatility creeps up the more expensive the options become.
(1D) XAUUSD v US30 - gold rush. There seems to be an inverse correlation between XAUUSD and US30. Interestingly Gold began taking off before the recent mini-crash. OBV on Gold was steadily rising whilst OBV on US30 was falling (even while price was recovering). BREXIT has caused deep uncertainty in a number of markets. GOLD has always been a major safe haven. We saw this at every major world financial crisis. They can't just print the stuff or do quantitative easing on GOLD - can they? LOL. I'm short on US30 and I've been happily long on Gold. My stop losses are in the right places relative to my account size. Cool.
Disclaimer: no liabilities accepted for losses arising by relying on this post.
(1D) US30 - WALL STREET - possible crash comingI'm no expert at Elliott waves, so my waves may be wrongly counted or drawn on this. But I'm watching a number of other things adding up. I see trend strength weakening. I see OBV probably heading down in a struggling bullish market. There is a similar wavy pattern emerging, similar to that around Nov 2015 to Jan 2016.
I'd be delighted if others who know more about Elliot Waves can help out. But do share any other ideas.
This idea is not a prediction .
Day of reckoning has come for oilThis last bullrun on oil prices wasn't really supported by volume and we can see that reflected on the OBV which increased only a fraction of what it fell when prices went from 34 top to 26 bottom. That is, volume was way lower on this 15 USD rally than it was on a drop of only half that amount !
This fake out, is confirmed by the money flow index, now coming back from oversold levels and breaking the wedge. This indicator has been rarely oversold and last time it did, price was around 100.
I believe we will re test 0,23 and maybe 0,5 both of them at signifcant levels from past peaks.
Bearish or accumulationWe have been on a long period with no clear trend, but looking at the weekly indicators, it shows that we just broke a large triangle and it is even shaping a head and shoulders pattern. All the indicators shown are really bearish on this time interval.
The best scenario would be an accumulation period that would take longer to define to the upside. I wouldn't bet on that unless we break 400 and stay there for several days.
The big shortIf you use the weekly time interval and chart price back to the 1200 peak, you will find an interesting thing about OBV: we are at the same point, and we seem to have done a double peak. On the other hand, indicators like the RSI seem to be completing a H&S pattern which would be the beginning of a huge bear cycle. If this is the case, we could go back on the 300's or lower. I hope it's not, but it should be considered anyway.
Short ATT? With Pleasure!AT&T is a terrible, clandestine company and they deserve to fail. This is not the reason I am shorting them, however.
Since the downgrade on 10/09 the stock seems to have trouble achieving and maintaining new levels. Furthermore, the Ichimoku cloud indicates some resistance from above at 35.63 or so, there is a lot of room to spare before we reach that level. The OBV indicator tells us that there is decreased buying pressure, and the MACD has recently crossed over. Finally the RSI confirms that this is a 'sweet spot' to make a trade.
For intermediary profit targets consider the two levels drawn from the lows going back to early October at 33.18 and 33.00, but note that after that, its smooth sailing through the vacuum area to the high of 10/02 at around 32.61. Stop losses may be set analogously using the relative high at 33.73, the Ichimoku cloud at 33.63, or if it crosses over the line segment forming the upper bound of the wedge.
On Balance Volume Explains what to Expect from SPY !SPY Has to break down one of these supports along with a Break down of OBV Horizontal support ( Red ) , OR SPY should make higher highs with OBV breaking out of the Descending Triangle Pattern , to sustain New Highs. !
Worsening macro and technical divergence sreams for a short(THIS IS THE RIGHT ONE - THE OTHER ONE DOESN'T HAVE OBV OR SPY TARGETS. SORRY!)
Sticking with the bearish case for US Equities I've made for most of 2015, I'm currently selling short a pretty significant position in SPY versus a long basket of Equities and bonds from the rest of the world. My rationale:
1. US Equities are still rich versus rest-of-world stocks in P/E ratios, even after the steep outperformance of DAX and NKY (among others) over SPX.
2. Real Money keeps adding big time to European and Asian mutual funds whilst withdrawing from US on the margin. The trend so far is evident on the divergence in stock prices and I expect it to continue.
3. Macro data in US keeps surprising on the downside over and over again... it made sense to 'buy the bad data' as a Fed put (specially on support zones), but aside from the macro impact, there's a significant impact of worsening economic conditions on corporate earnings that hasn't been priced into this market, IMHO.
4. Big divergences in RSI and On Balance Volume have been developing since late 2014; the market keeps climbing higher with diminishing momentum and buying volume.
4. Signs of strong resistance above 211 on SPY / 2110 on ES/SPX; since early March, the market hasn't closed decisively over this area.
Initial targets of 207.50 and 206.60 as signals of money supporting the market. If broken, next targets will be 205 (lower Boll-band on the daily frame); 202.32 (200-day MA); and whatever price SPY will be trading at when it hits 30 on the daily RSI. Will use trailing stops accordingly if the position moves in my favour.
Good luck trading.
Bearish divergence at key resistance levelVolume and OBV are both not supporting the bullishness of this wave (III)
We are likely to continue forming the wedge (in 5 waves ideally) on lower volume and break down right after.
Sell here and buy at the level of green support trend line.
For further analysis check out my other published charts that I linked bellow.
Cheers : ]
BTCUSD setting up bullish, waiting for price to confirm.The key word of the last week has been whipsaw. This term is applied in trading circles when the price head’s in one direction, and then is quickly followed by a movement in the opposite direction. The price of bitcoin has entered a period of high volatility and is whipsawing all over the place. A few simple words here: traders beware. It is time to be vigilant and wait for the price to resolve it itself one way or the other and form a trend before putting money to work. The chart below shows how hard it has been to predict the price movement as we have moved from bearish to bullish back to bearish and are now back in the cloud. Right now price is bumping up against the top of resistance and a break through would be a bullish signal. The Lagging Line which is the slowest of the Lines has yet to pierce into the cloud and confirm a bullish move, if it does, that should mean we are seeing a bullish transition forming.
Based on recent trading it would be prudent to look at other indicators to confirm the move. The chart below shows some indicators we will use to get confirmations in the event that price breaks resistance. The RSI is in bullish zone despite the recent downturn and is has plenty of room to run if the price confirms to the upside. Money Flow has been very bullish and continues to be so, as money has continued to come into bitcoin despite all the volatility in price. MACD is close to crossing over which would trigger a buy signal. What’s even more significant is that MACD is now in positive territory when making the cross over, so this is another potential bullish signal. On Balance Volume (OBV) is trending at a low level, an upside move in price should be confirmed with a rising OBV. Using other indicators to confirm is essential when analyzing charts particularly when we are a period of uncertainty and waiting for signals to trade.
Conclusion
We don’t have any definite trading signals as price has created a false breakout followed by a false breakdown. Price is now back in the cloud and rubbing against resistance. The weight of the evidence leans bullish and if price confirms a buy signal will be triggered. In the meantime, there is no need to rush into a trade. Price will tell us what we need to know soon enough.
Now that BearWhale (Draper?) has exited — are we est new supportThe accumulation is actually up, which hopefully means people are buying at this level, establishing a new support.
I'm not jazzed about a $330-350 support level, but it's better than not knowing where the floor is at.
Still, my miners are shut down, until it's cool enough to use them for heating, or BTC goes above $400 again.
No more support, where does it land. I don't care, personally. I'm out. We pierced the only support that mattered.
Watch out for sharks... the whales have left the building.
And once again, they say, thank you for your buy support as they sold off their bags of holding.
Here that noise? It's the sound of an overinflated, no-intrinsic-value ponzi, deflating.
It's even dropping as I'm writing this {"amount":"333.18","currency":"USD"}
Priceline.Com -PCLN-Daily: On Balance Volume Saying Goodbye...Very strong selling is going on under the surface of PCLN. Although the price appears to be healthy and range-bound, it appears as if long term holders have liquidated their positions and now are waiting for prices to fall dramatically.
I know it looks like I'm kicking PCLN when it's down, but it is still just "rolling over" on the long term chart. The uptrend has been thousands of percent and this is only less than 20% off the highest highs.
Airline stocks rolled over and are very weak, so that bodes ill for all the stocks involved in the travel industry for the near term.
The ATR is 23 points. If you use 1 ATR as a measuring stick, your stop can be about 3 ATR's away and your target might be about the same. The probability of hitting 3 ATR's profit versus the 3 ATR stop is the key in the long run: I'd presume about 75% chance of a win from this setup. That makes a good system in the long run if you can find enough trades to take.
1:24PM EST Wednesday, October 1, 2014
DAL Long - Bull Flag ConsolidationThe idea here isn't very difficult to understand. DAL has made a run up from $35.51 on August 8th, where we saw a bounce off the 150EMA, a personal favorite area to get long for me, especially looking at the weekly chart for this. Anyways, from the top down:
1) Bullish RSI Holding 60 Support
2) Established Uptrend - Long Term
3) Bounce off 150 EMA
4) Long $4.46 move straight up through all EMA(8/21/50), through resistance, and consolidating above.
5) Broken Downtrend
6)Weekly Uptrend Is Beautiful - Right At EMAs (8/21)
(My Screen Is Too Small To Pull Up Both Simultaneously)
Cons:
1) MACD Is Positive
2) Momentum Tapering As We Consolidate
I like the chart, and like what I see. I'm getting long here. Possibly with a covered call, but maybe something else. Not sure what other plays are available with such low volatility, but the verticals and diagonals are getting old.
