Next Volatility Period: Around May 2nd ~ Around May 8th
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This volatility period is expected to continue until April 23rd.
We need to see if the price can rise above the downtrend line (3) and maintain its position after the volatility period ends.
If the price fails to rise and falls,
1st: 74342.27
2nd: 67720.67 ~ 69978.65
You must check if it receives support near the 1st and 2nd levels above.
If it falls below the upward trend line (1), it will effectively fall below the long-term trend line, so you must prepare for further decline.
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A full-scale uptrend is highly likely to begin when the price maintains a level above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
Therefore, the time when the price maintains a level above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart can be considered the final buying opportunity.
Since it has converged into the HA-Low ~ HA-High zone of 67720.67 ~ 74342.27, a trend may develop if it receives support near this zone.
A trend may have already started, but caution is required when trading as the price is still positioned below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
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The next period of volatility is expected around May 8th, but since ETH's volatility period begins around May 2nd, the period between May 2nd and 8th is expected to be the primary volatility period.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
-
-
This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
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On Balance Volume (OBV)
What a clean breakout setup looks likeOn the 1-hour timeframe, BULL is showing a textbook transition from compression into expansion, supported by alignment across structure, momentum, and participation.
Structure (EMA Alignment):
Price is now trading above the 10 / 20 / 50 EMAs, all stacked above the 200 EMA
This reflects short-term trend control with higher timeframe support building underneath
Prior consolidation phase created a tight base → now resolving higher
Momentum (RSI):
RSI holding in the upper range (~80+)
Indicates sustained momentum rather than a single spike
No major bearish divergence present → momentum remains intact
Participation (OBV):
OBV continues trending higher
Confirms buyers are actively supporting the move, not just price drifting upward
Expansion (ATR):
ATR is beginning to rise after a period of contraction
Signals volatility expansion → trend continuation environment
🔍 What This Setup Represents
This is a classic structure sequence:
Compression → Breakout → Momentum Hold → Expansion
When all four phases align:
Structure leads
Momentum confirms
Participation validates
Volatility expands
That’s when moves tend to sustain rather than fade quickly
⚠️ Context Note
At current levels, price is extended short-term, so this becomes more about:
Monitoring pullback structure
Watching if EMAs continue to act as support
Observing whether momentum stays elevated or begins to fade
⭐️ Final Clarity Note ⭐️:
This isn’t about predicting the next move —
it’s about recognizing when market structure, momentum, and participation are all aligned.
That alignment is what turns simple breakouts into sustained trends.
Need to verify if a new high is forming
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The key indicators are as follows:
1. To sustain the uptrend in the medium to long term, the price must maintain a level above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
At this point, if the M-Signal on the 1D chart aligns in the order of M-Signal on the 1W chart > M-Signal on the 1M chart, it is highly likely that a full-fledged uptrend will begin.
2. The indicators marking the low points are the DOM(-60) indicator and the HA-Low indicator.
Therefore, if support is found near the DOM(-60) and HA-Low indicators, it is highly likely that an uptrend will begin.
3. The indicators marking the high points are the DOM(60) indicator and the HA-High indicator.
Therefore, if resistance is encountered near the DOM(60) and HA-High indicators, it is highly likely that a downtrend will begin.
However, if the price falls from the DOM(-60) and HA-Low indicators, there is a possibility of a stepwise downtrend, and if it rises from the DOM(60) and HA-High indicators, there is a possibility of a stepwise uptrend.
Therefore, you must verify whether it receives support in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and resistance in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
If it receives support in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range and rises, there is a possibility of a stepwise uptrend, so you could buy at that point; however, as mentioned earlier, since you bought in a zone corresponding to the peak, you must respond quickly.
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Furthermore, if the HA-Low ~ HA-High range converges, the likelihood of forming a trend in the near future increases.
Therefore, if the HA-High indicator forms at the 74342.27 point this time, whether it receives support in the 67720.67 ~ 74342.27 range becomes a critical factor.
Since the next volatility period is around April 22 (April 21–23), we need to observe whether the HA-High indicator indicates the first volatility after it is generated.
The main volatility period is around May 2–8, so the movements during this time are important.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
-------------------------------------------------
(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
-
- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
------------------------------------------------------
Confirming support around 69978.65
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As the price rises, the HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart is showing signs of forming at the 69978.65 point.
Accordingly, the key question is whether it can find support and rise in the range of 69978.65 to 71058.26.
However, since the StochRSI indicator is in the overbought zone and the OBV indicator is located near the EMA 3 line, there is a possibility that the upward movement will be constrained.
Therefore, we must verify whether it can find support around the 67720.67 to 71058.26 range.
The next period of volatility is around April 22nd.
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Looking at the 15-minute chart, the channel formed by the OBV indicator's Low Line to High Line is in a contracted state, so it is highly likely that volatility will occur soon.
At that time, we need to observe which direction it moves relative to the 69978.65 to 71058.26 range.
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For prices to rise, at the very least, there must be no outflow of funds from the cryptocurrency market.
Currently, USDT is consolidating, while USDC is showing a gap-up.
Accordingly, this indicates that funds are flowing in through USDC.
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Since the current BTC price has fallen by approximately -50%,
I believe that BTC dominance should rise and USDT dominance should fall.
Therefore, from a chart analysis perspective, I believe it needs to show a strong upward breakout of the 69,000 ~ 73,499.86 range.
Since a full-scale uptrend is highly likely to begin when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, you should monitor the movement when the M-Signal indicator falls to the 69,000–73,499.86 range.
Because the DOM (-60) or HA-Low indicators, which signal a bottom, are not appearing despite the price decline, you should anticipate a possibility of further drops and prepare a response strategy.
Therefore, based on the current price position, the maximum decline is expected to occur around the 57,694.27–61,299.80 range.
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Looking at the StochRSI indicators on each chart,
the 1M chart is located in the oversold zone, while the 1W and 1D charts are located in the overbought zone.
Therefore, in the event of a price decline, the key factor is expected to be whether support is maintained around the DOM (-60) indicator range of 64,058.15 to 65,776.47.
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Since the current period is a buying time, caution is required when selling.
As mentioned below, a full-scale uptrend is highly likely to begin in July, so a trading strategy must be developed accordingly.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
-
- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
------------------------------------------------------
SPY Daily — Structure Holding StrongPrice continues to trade above the 10, 20, 50, and 200 EMAs, with short-term momentum building.
The 10 EMA and 20 EMA are both trending upward, showing continued short-term strength, while the 50 EMA remains flat but stable—acting as a base of support beneath price.
RSI is holding steady around 60, indicating controlled momentum without entering overbought conditions.
On the volume side, OBV has been trending higher since March 30th, suggesting underlying accumulation remains intact.
Overall, structure remains healthy with alignment across trend, momentum, and volume.
⭐️ Final Clarity Note ⭐️:
When price holds above key moving averages with steady RSI and rising OBV, it reflects participation—not just movement. Structure > Emotion.
Checking for support in the 234.11 ~ 241.05 range
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(AMZN 12M Chart)
The important point is the one marked with a circle.
The trend may be determined by whether support is found near this important point, so you need to watch it carefully.
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(1M Chart)
Looking more closely, the key zones are:
1. 206.16 ~ 239.30,
2. Around 165.73,
3. 70.43 ~ 84.00.
To continue the stair-step upward trend, the price must rise above the 206.16 ~ 239.30 range and maintain the level.
If the price falls around 165.73, there is a possibility of a sharp decline, so you should prepare a response plan for this.
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(1W Chart)
Looking more closely,
the important zones are
1. 188.99 ~ 239.30,
2. Around 165.73,
3. 70.43 ~ 84.0.
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(1D Chart)
Since the current price is located in the first important zone, let's examine the 188.99 ~ 239.30 range.
Looking at the 1D chart,
High zone: 234.11 ~ 241.05
Low zone: 198.79 ~ 204.86
To continue the uptrend, the price must maintain a level above around 219.39.
Therefore, if it fails to rise above the peak level this time, we need to check if it finds support around 219.39.
Since the StochRSI indicator has currently entered the overbought zone, there is a possibility that the upward movement will be constrained.
Therefore, the key is whether it can break above the peak level and maintain the price.
As the OBV indicator has risen above the High Line, I believe it is highly likely to show an upward trend or consolidate until it falls back below the High Line.
Although the OBV indicator has risen above the High Line and is showing strong buying pressure, the fact that the StochRSI indicator is in the overbought zone restricts the rise; therefore, this should be interpreted as a possibility of rapid fatigue accumulating.
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What we need to monitor currently is:
1. Confirm whether support is found around the 234.11 ~ 241.05 range.
2. Check if the StochRSI indicator shows an upward trend after falling from the overbought zone. 3. Verify whether the channel formed by the Low Line to High Line of the OBV indicator transitions into an ascending channel.
By confirming the above conditions, you can ultimately proceed with a buy order when the price breaks upward through the 234.11–241.05 range.
If the above conditions are not met and the price falls below 219.39, there is a possibility of a sharp decline.
In this case, the key is to confirm whether support is found near the low point.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you a successful trade.
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Need to confirm support in the 1964.96 ~ 2111.42 range
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(ETHUSDT 1D Chart)
This period of volatility is expected to continue until April 3rd.
After that, the direction in which it moves is expected to be a critical factor.
The next period of volatility is expected to begin around May 2nd.
However, since BTC's volatility is expected to occur around April 22nd (April 21st–23rd), we need to monitor its movements during this period.
As the main period of volatility is expected to coincide around May 8th, when the volatility periods of ETH and BTC overlap, it seems necessary to formulate a response strategy accordingly.
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To maintain an uptrend in the mid-to-long term, the price must hold above the 1597.76–1879.61 range.
Currently, the HA-Low indicator on the 1D and 1W charts is formed at the 1964.96 and 2111.42 points; therefore, if the price rises within this range, it is highly likely to show an uptrend.
However, since the DOM (-60) indicators on the 1W and 1D charts are formed at 1597.76 and 1857.94, the maximum point of decline is expected to be around 1597.76.
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Therefore, the key factor is whether it can find support in the range of 1597.76 to 2111.42 and rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
If it fails to rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, the likelihood of a continued downtrend increases, so countermeasures for this should be prepared.
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Looking at the StochRSI indicators on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, the price is in an oversold zone in the long term, but it appears overheated in the medium and short term. Therefore, I believe the price should consolidate further within the current price range.
To determine whether this consolidation becomes an upward or downward consolidation, we must examine whether the channel formed by the Low Line to High Line of the OBV indicator forms an upward or downward channel.
While an upward channel is currently forming, we need to observe whether it is maintained through this period of volatility.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
-
- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
------------------------------------------------------
Next Volatility Period: Around April 22
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If you "follow" me, you can always get new information quickly.
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(BTCUSDT 1D Chart)
From a chart analysis perspective, the important range is between 69000.0 and 73909.36.
This is because if it falls below this level, there is a high probability that it will show a downtrend in the mid-to-long term.
Therefore, from a chart analysis perspective, I believe it is appropriate to explain countermeasures for a mid-to-long-term downtrend.
However, from a trading perspective, the most critical range is the 57,694.27 to 61,299.80 range.
This is because a drop below this level would mean falling below the previous high point; thus, this is a zone that must be supported to sustain an uptrend in the mid-to-long term.
Currently, the HA-Low indicator point on the 1W chart is formed at 71,058.26, and the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart is formed at 67,720.67.
The formation of the HA-Low indicator signifies that a low point zone has been established.
Therefore, if it shows signs of being supported near the HA-Low indicator, it is a buying opportunity.
If this fails and the price falls, there is a possibility of a stepwise decline, so you must consider countermeasures.
Since the end of a stepwise decline is an uptrend, you must ultimately consider how to proceed with buying.
- (1W Chart)
Looking at the 1W chart, you can understand why the creation of the HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart is important.
While there is no guarantee that past movements will appear similarly in the present, this is because if the price maintains the range of 57,694.27 to 61,299.80 mentioned in the 1D chart, or above that level, it is expected to show an upward trend.
- (1M Chart)
You can identify the previous high point by looking at the 1M chart.
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Therefore,
from a mid-to-long-term perspective, the buying timing corresponds to the area between 57,694.27 and 61,299.80,
and from a short-to-medium-term perspective, the buying timing corresponds to the area between 67,620.39 and 71,058.26.
Thus, you can proceed with the position currently in the buying phase.
However, since the price is located below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, position sizing adjustments are necessary.
This is because a full-scale uptrend is highly likely to begin when the price maintains a level above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
Looking at the current price position at 75,719.90, this corresponds to the StochRSI 20 indicator point on the 1M chart.
Therefore, the likelihood of an upward trend is increasing as the price breaks above the 75,719.90 point.
Therefore, if the price rises when the StochRSI 20 indicator on the 1M chart maintains the 75,719.90 level and the M-Signal indicator passes near this point, that can be considered the final buying opportunity.
After passing through the volatility period around March 23, the price appears to be feigning an upward trend before falling.
The next volatility period is around April 22, but looking at the ETHUSDT chart, a volatility period exists around April 2.
Therefore, you should consider a response strategy assuming there is a possibility that a trend will form after April 2.
To sustain an uptrend after breaking out of a key point or zone, the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators must show an upward trend.
In particular,
1. It is preferable that the StochRSI indicator has not entered the overbought zone. 2. It is advisable for the BSSC indicator to remain above the 0 point.
3. It is advisable for the OBV indicator to remain above the High Line.
When the price breaks upward from any point or zone, you must verify whether the above conditions are satisfied and formulate a trading strategy accordingly.
- Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
-------------------------------------------------
(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
-
- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
------------------------------------------------------
Checking if the HA-Low indicator is generated at 71058.26
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If you "follow" me, you can always get new information quickly.
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(BTCUSDT 1M Chart)
Looking at the current price level, you can see that it corresponds to the previous high zone.
Therefore, it is evident that the current price level, specifically the range of 57,694.27 to 71,280.01, is a critical zone.
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(1W Chart)
Currently, the HA-Low indicator appears to be forming at the 71,058.26 point.
Accordingly, the key question is whether it can find support and rise within the range of 57,694.27 to 71,280.01.
If the HA-Low indicator forms at the 71058.26 point, the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low zone is formed between 65776.47 and 71058.26; therefore, if the price finds support in this zone, it constitutes a buying opportunity.
This is because the DOM(-60) and HA-Low indicators mark the low points.
One thing to note here is that the price is located below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
Therefore, it is advisable to proceed with day trading.
This is because a drop below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart implies a high probability of entering a full-scale downtrend.
You can see that a significant uptrend was observed as the Low Line ~ High Line zone of the OBV indicator expanded (forming an ascending channel).
Therefore, we need to observe whether it will form an ascending channel and show an uptrend this time as well.
To do so, we must verify whether it is showing a sideways movement from its current price position.
In this sense, it is the same as what was mentioned in the idea below, "The uptrend in the coin market is expected to start in July."
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(1D Chart)
Looking at the chart's movement, the basic flow is that if it finds support in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low zone and rises, it encounters resistance upon reaching the HA-High ~ DOM(60) zone.
However, if it rises from the HA-High ~ DOM(60) zone, there is a possibility of a stepwise uptrend, and if it falls from the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low zone, there is a possibility of a stepwise downtrend.
Therefore, we must carefully observe whether trading is possible when the price is located near DOM(-60), HA-Low, HA-High, and DOM(60). As mentioned earlier, if the price is located below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it is advisable to proceed with day trading.
Accordingly, a full-scale uptrend is highly likely to begin upon breaking upwards from the 78595.86 ~ 89294.25 range.
-
Looking at it in more detail,
- 65776.47 ~ 69000.0,
- 69000.0 ~ 71280.01,
- 71280.01 ~ 73499.86
The price can be examined by dividing it into the above ranges.
Since the HA-Low indicator is currently formed at the 67720.67 and 71058.26 points, you should focus on finding trading opportunities within the 67720.67 ~ 71058.26 range. However, as mentioned earlier, the price is currently located below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, and since there is a possibility of sideways movement until July, position sizing is necessary.
- Since the StochRSI indicator appears to have entered the overbought zone, there is a possibility that the upward movement will be constrained.
Therefore, we need to confirm whether support is found around the 67720.67 ~ 71058.26 range.
To sustain the uptrend, the OBV, BSSC, and StochRSI indicators must show an upward trend.
To achieve this:
1. It is desirable for the StochRSI indicator not to have entered the overbought zone.
2. It is desirable for the BSSC indicator to remain above the 0 point.
3. It is desirable for the OBV indicator to remain above the High Line.
Therefore, we must also verify whether the above conditions are satisfied when the price rises after receiving support in the 67720.67 ~ 71058.26 range. We need to examine whether conditions for an uptrend can be created as the next period of volatility passes around March 23 (March 22–24).
- Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
- - This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
------------------------------------------------------
Support Zone: 1964.96 ~ 2111.42
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(ETHUSDT 1W Chart)
With this rise, the HA-Low indicator is expected to form at the 2111.42 point.
Accordingly, the key factor is whether it can find support around 2111.42.
If it finds support in the range of 1597.76 to 2111.42, it is a buying opportunity.
However, since it is currently located below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it is advisable to proceed with trading from a day trading perspective.
To break out of the descending channel formed by this decline, it is expected to either rise to the 2419.83 to 2706.15 range to maintain the price, or consolidate in the 1597.76 to 2111.42 range and break out only after the week including May 4th.
-
(1D Chart)
We need to examine whether it can rise along the short-term high upward trend line (1).
Currently, the short-term low trend line (2) has not yet been formed.
Therefore, if the price fails to rise along the short-term high upward trend line (1) and instead falls, it is expected to form a new short-term trend line.
Accordingly, the key factor during the next volatility period is whether the price rises along the short-term high upward trend line (1) as it passes around March 23 (March 22–24).
As mentioned earlier, since the price is currently located below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, you should formulate a trading strategy assuming there is a high probability that the downtrend will continue.
Therefore, I believe it is advisable to conduct trading from a day trading perspective.
If the price is supported around 2111.42 and rises, you should observe whether it breaks above the 2419.83–2706.15 range and rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
If the price maintains its position above the downtrend line (3) while rising, it is expected to lead to an attempt to rise to the area around 3321.30–3438.16.
-
If the price falls below 1597.94 to 1879.61, there is a high probability of a long-term downtrend, so you should prepare a response plan for this.
-
If the price shows signs of support in the 1964.96 to 2111.42 range, we should focus on finding the right trading timing.
If the price falls below 1851.94 and shows signs of resistance, it is advisable to cut your losses and observe the situation.
If the price fails to rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart or fails to break above the 2419.83 to 2706.15 range, it is recommended to sell in installments and monitor the situation.
This trading strategy is an example intended to demonstrate how to utilize chart analysis to trade.
Creating a trading strategy requires investing more time than chart analysis.
A macroscopic trading strategy must be established before you begin trading. Otherwise, there is a high probability that you will fail in your trades due to an inability to withstand price volatility.
The most important factors to observe in chart analysis are support and resistance points.
A trading strategy involves designing how to continue trading during your chosen investment period, responding based on whether support is maintained at these points.
You should avoid day trading where you simply hold onto a position after the price drops immediately upon purchase, as this can cause you to miss better opportunities.
Therefore, it is necessary to clearly determine your investment period before you begin trading.
This is because doing so allows you to formulate a trading strategy tailored to that period and decide on a method for realizing profits.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
Check if it can rise above 216.60
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The key is whether the price can hold above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and rise above 216.60.
If it doesn't and falls, it could enter mid- to long-term investment territory, so caution is advised when trading.
To initiate an uptrend, the price must rise above the previous high of 221.46 to 262.40 and remain there.
-
The short-term low is formed in the 220.27 to 237.86 range, so the key is to maintain the price above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and then rise above the 220.27 to 237.86 range.
The previous low is formed at 338.72, so to initiate an uptrend, the price must rise above 338.72 and remain there.
Therefore, we are likely to see a buying opportunity when the price finds support in the 216.60 to 262.40 range.
-
To achieve this, the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
We'll have to see if BTC continues its upward trend as it moves through the upcoming volatility period.
If it fails to rise, we'll need to check for support near the first and second levels above:
1st: 115.72,
2nd: 66.51.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
See if it can rise above 1.4033 ~ 1.4698
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-------------------------------------
The price is declining from important support and resistance levels, and the DOM (-60) indicator is showing signs of forming.
Therefore, the key question is whether the price can sustain above 1.2455 and rise above key support and resistance levels.
Since it has fallen below key support and resistance levels, it has entered a medium- to long-term investment zone, so caution is advised when trading.
-
Currently, the key question is whether it can rise above the 1.4033 to 1.4698 range.
If it fails to rise, the downward trend is expected to continue, and support around 0.9300 is crucial.
Since it has fallen below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it can be interpreted as a medium- to long-term downtrend.
Therefore, we need to see if the price can rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, breaking through the important support and resistance levels of 1.5 to 1.9669 after finding support in the 1.4033 to 1.4698 range.
To sustain a short-term, stepwise uptrend, the price must rise above 2.1172 to 2.3042 and remain stable. Therefore, even if the price rises, rather than simply trading on the basis of price, it's not too late to identify the conditions for an uptrend and develop a trading strategy based on the support pattern.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
We wish you successful trading.
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Divergence with confirmation signals on UAE marketsThis is for educational purposes only.
Recently, I've been asked to share my strategy that making most of my wins in UAE markets. 7 out of 10 the winning rates (no proofs)
First and foremost:
- I prefer a swing trade, and usually that may goes between 2 weeks up to 6 months.
- Daily timeframe for observation.
- 4H timeframe for confirming the strategy.
- 1H timeframe for Enter or Exit.
Be aware:
Supply and demand zones are very important.
Risk management - critical.
Price actions - for additional confirmation.
Not work always ----- be aware
Indicators:
True Strength indicator "TSI" (my prefer).
On Balance Volume "OBV" (with 10 Moving Average)
Note: you may add any momentum indicators like RSI, MACD as replacement of TSI or use for more confirmation. it's up to you!!!
Strategy Setup :
TSI indicator "SHOULD" provide clear divergence, on the trendy market (uptrend or downtrend).
OBV indicator "MUST" provide a strong breakout of 10 OBV (moving average), on direction of trend market.
Note:Enter & Exit work that same.
The main volatility period is expected to occur around March 23
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-------------------------------------
With this rally, the HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart is showing signs of forming at the 74057.90 level.
Accordingly, the key question is whether support will be available around 74057.90.
-
The OBV indicator is showing signs of rising above the High Line, suggesting a forced upward movement.
At this point, the key question is whether the price can rise above EMA 3.
If the OBV indicator rises above EMA 3 and 75719.90 and the price maintains its upward momentum, a reversal is likely.
However, the StochRSI indicator is in an overbought zone, suggesting a potential limit to the upward movement. Therefore, a support test is expected.
Therefore, we should monitor the current volatility period, which will last until around March 9 (March 8-10), to determine where support will be tested.
The main volatility period is expected to occur around March 23, so we should monitor whether conditions are in place for a sustained upward trend before then.
-
For the uptrend to continue, the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
If possible,
1. The StochRSI indicator should not have entered the overbought zone.
2. The BSSC indicator should remain above zero.
3. The OBV indicator should remain above the High Line.
If the above conditions are met and the price rises above 75719.90, the uptrend is expected to continue.
This uptrend is expected to retest support when it meets the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
The long-term uptrend is likely to continue when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and maintains its strength.
Therefore, the final buying opportunity is when support is found near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
-
The HA-Low indicator, which indicates a low, is designed for trading on the Heikin-Ashi chart.
Therefore, if support is found near the HA-Low indicator, it's a good time to buy.
If the HA-Low indicator declines, a stepwise downward trend is likely, with a new low.
However, since this stepwise downward trend ends in an upward trend, it's time to trade and increase your coin (token) holdings.
Therefore, don't be afraid of stepwise downward trends. Actively engage in trading, practicing trading techniques you haven't attempted before.
Therefore, instead of taking profits in cash, sell the original purchase price to keep the coins (tokens) corresponding to the profits, thereby increasing your holdings.
Since trading isn't something you'll stop after a day or two, consistently trading your current holdings to increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profits will ultimately lead to significant profits.
To achieve this, it's best to trade based on the purchase price.
-
Therefore, if the upward trend continues, the resistance level is:
- 75719.90
- M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart
We need to watch for an upward breakout of the two resistance levels above.
-
Thank you for reading.
We wish you successful trading.
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(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
-
- This is an explanation of the big picture. (3-Year Bull Market, 1-Year Bear Market Pattern)
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The key is whether it can rise above 87.68 ~ 92.50
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To continue the uptrend, the price must remain above 81.28.
Therefore, the key is whether it can find support in the 81.28 ~ 91.78 range and rise.
If the upward movement fails, a decline to the 27.15-36.84 level is likely, so a response plan should be considered.
Accordingly, the 66.26 level is the stop-loss point.
If the price finds support in the 81.28-91.78 range and rises, it is expected to attempt an upward move toward the Fibonacci level of 1.618 (156.85).
-
To continue the uptrend by breaking above key levels or milestones, the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
If possible,
1. The StochRSI indicator should not have entered the overbought zone.
2. The BSSC indicator should remain above the 0 level.
3. The OBV indicator should remain above the High Line.
Check to see if the above conditions are met.
-
A short-term high has formed in the 87.68 ~ 92.50 range.
Therefore, the key question is whether the price can rise above this range and maintain its upward momentum.
If the price declines, support in the 81.28 ~ 83.73 range is crucial.
This is because the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart is passing.
If the upward trend begins, it is expected to lead to an attempt to rise above the 112.86 ~ 115.90 range.
Therefore, the key question is whether the price can find support in the 87.68 ~ 92.50 range and continue upward.
-
Thank you for reading.
We wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
Next Volatility Period: Around March 23rd
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With this rise, the HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart is showing signs of forming at the 2255.23 level.
Therefore, if the HA-Low indicator forms at the 2255.23 level, it will be important to determine whether support is found near this level.
The current low on the 1D chart is between 1581.94 and 1964.96.
Therefore, if the price declines, we should check for support near the 1581.94 and 1964.96 level.
If the HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart forms at the 2255.23 level, the low on the 1W chart will be between 1597.76 and 2255.23.
Therefore, we should buy when the price shows support in the 1597.76 ~ 2255.23 range.
If the price falls below the 1597.76 ~ 1879.61 range, a medium- to long-term downtrend is likely, so it's best to observe an uptrend in this range if possible.
A full-blown uptrend is likely to begin when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart. Therefore, we should watch for an upward breakout above the 2419.83 ~ 2706.15 range and a rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
If the price fails to rise, it could fall again to the 1597.76 ~ 1879.61 range, so we should consider a countermeasure.
-
The advantage of the coin market is that trading can be done in decimal units.
By trading in decimal units like this, you can quickly increase your coin (token) holdings, unlike in the traditional stock market.
I believe that achieving significant profits in the coin market ultimately depends on how you can increase your coin (token) holdings with limited investment capital.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
Next Volatility Period: Around March 10th
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A short-term low has formed between 397.21 and 418.18.
Therefore, as we move through the next volatility period, around March 10th, we need to monitor the direction in which the price deviates from the short-term lows.
If it rises, it could rise to around 480.91.
If it falls, it could touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
-
The key is whether the price can continue its upward trend along the rising channel formed on the 1M chart.
If it falls from the rising channel, it could fall to around 299.29, so we need to consider a response plan for this.
-
Thank you for reading.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July
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The coin market appears to be following the larger pattern: a three-year uptrend followed by a one-year downtrend.
For the coin market to continue its upward trend, at least through USDT and USDC, there needs to be no outflow from the market.
However, I believe we are currently seeing an outflow of funds from the coin market.
The current price level appears to be maintained by the re-inflow of funds into USDC.
Looking at the USDT chart above, it began to decline in May 2022 and began to rise again after seven months.
If this pattern continues, the coin market is expected to show an upward trend only in July 2026.
Since the current price level appears to be maintained by funds flowing into USDC, it is necessary to monitor whether this inflow remains above 72.04B.
If it falls below 72.04B, the coin market is expected to decline again from the current price.
-
If we've confirmed the overall fund flow in the coin market with USDT and USDC, we can determine the fund flow to some extent by looking at BTC dominance and USDT dominance.
For the coin market to show a major uptrend, both BTC and USDT dominance must decline.
BTC dominance must fall below 55.01 and either remain stable or show a downward trend, while USDT dominance must fall below 4.915 and either remain stable or show a downward trend.
A declining BTC dominance indicates that funds are being concentrated in altcoins.
Currently, BTC dominance is moving sideways.
The movement of USDT dominance when BTC dominance breaks out of the 55.01 to 61.73 range is important.
A rising USDT dominance indicates a high probability of a bearish market.
Therefore, we need to determine if the conditions for a decline in USDT dominance are met.
The conditions for a continued downtrend include:
1. The BSSC indicator must remain below zero,
2. The OBV indicator must remain below the Low Line or show a downward trend,
3. The StochRSI indicator must show a downward trend.
-
In this situation, one option is to increase the number of coins (tokens) held.
One way to increase the number of coins (tokens) held is to retain the coins (tokens) corresponding to profits generated from day trading or short-term trading.
In other words, the concept is to increase the number of coins (tokens) held by retaining the coins (tokens) instead of receiving the profits in cash.
Since these increased coins (tokens) are coins (tokens) with an average purchase price of 0, you can keep your investment in cash while increasing the number of coins (tokens) held.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
- Here's an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
------------------------------------------------------
Check if support can be found around 1861.57 ~ 2063.38
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(ETHUSDT 1D chart)
The BSSC indicator is holding above the 0 level.
However, it appears to be showing weak buying momentum.
For ETH to begin an uptrend, the On-By-Value (OBV) indicator must rise above the High Line.
Therefore, the channel formed by the Low Line and High Line must contract.
This could lead to a prolonged sideways movement.
The next volatility period for ETH is expected to occur around March 2nd (March 1st - 3rd), while BTC's next volatility period is expected to occur around March 7th, so we need to closely monitor movements until around March 7th.
Based on the current price position, an uptrend is likely to begin only if the StochRSI indicator rises above the 20 level, as indicated by the arrow.
Even if an uptrend begins, it will require an upward breakout of the critical 2419.83 - 2706.15 range, making it difficult to maintain the uptrend.
To sustain a long-term uptrend, the price must remain above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart. Therefore, if the price breaks above the critical 2419.83 to 2706.15 range and the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart rises above it, I believe the uptrend is likely to continue.
To achieve this, it seems necessary to move sideways from the current price level and wait for the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart to fall below or below this critical range.
If the price falls below the 1597.76 to 1879.61 range, there's a possibility of entering a prolonged downturn, so we should consider countermeasures accordingly.
-
Thank you for reading.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
Checking for support near 65760.59
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Looking at the On-By-Volume (OBV) indicator on the 1D chart, we can see that the High Line has fallen, forming a converging Low Line ~ High Line channel.
Therefore, volatility is expected to occur soon.
The expected volatility period is around March 9th (March 8th - 10th).
-
However,
If BTC dominance and USDT dominance show a simultaneous decline,
Volatility is likely to occur after ETHUSDT's volatility period, which is around March 2nd (March 1st - 3rd).
-
What we need to check is whether support can be found around the left Fibonacci level of 0.618 (65760.59) and an upward trend can occur.
To do this, we need to see if the BSSC indicator rises above the 0 level and remains above it.
If not, it could decline again to around 65058.15, the DOM (-60) indicator point created recently.
At this point, the key question is whether there is support at 65058.15.
-
For support and resistance points to be established and function properly, support must be confirmed for at least 1 to 3 days.
I've included some useful indicators to help confirm support.
If all of these indicators are trending upward, such as the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators, the price is likely trending upward.
However, the current indicators do not yet indicate an upward trend, so caution is advised when trading.
Since the OBV indicator's Low Line and High Line channels are converging, it's crucial to determine whether buying pressure will enter and push the price above the High Line.
If the BSSC indicator rises above 0 and remains above this level, it's expected to create a more favorable situation.
The BSSC indicator is a comprehensive evaluation of the AD Line, MFI, and Williams %R indicators.
This indicator interprets a rise above the zero point as a buying trend, while a decline indicates a selling trend.
-
Currently, the HA-Low indicator is at 68477.26, so the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range is 64058.15 ~ 68477.26.
Therefore, if support is found in this range, it's a buying opportunity.
The M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart is currently falling near the 68477.26 level. When assessing support in the 64058.15 ~ 68477.26 range, we should examine whether the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart and sustains the price.
-
The last time to buy BTC is when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and holds.
If the price fails to rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it will eventually fall again.
Therefore, the current trading strategy should be day trading.
The first time to buy is when support is found in the 64058.15 to 68477.26 range. However, since the key range is formed in the 69000 to 73499.86 range, the best time to buy for short-term trading will be in the 69000 to 73499.86 range.
-
As mentioned in the previous idea, the potential for an uptrend to begin appears to be at least from July. Until then, we need to focus on increasing the number of coins (tokens) that can be used for profit.
-
Thank you for reading to the end. Wishing you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
Next Volatility Period: Around March 9th
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The M-Signal indicator on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts is useful for monitoring the overall chart movement.
A major uptrend occurs when the M-Signal on the 1D chart > M-Signal on the 1W chart > M-Signal on the 1M chart.
Conversely, if the M-Signal on the 1M chart > M-Signal on the 1W chart > M-Signal on the 1D chart, a major downtrend is indicated.
-
The HA-Low and HA-High indicators are used for trading.
Therefore, the basic trading strategy is to buy in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and sell in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
A rise in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range is likely to lead to a stepwise uptrend, while a decline in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range is likely to lead to a stepwise downtrend.
Therefore, trading should be done in segmented trading formats.
The HA-Low indicator is currently trending downward, which can be interpreted as a stepwise downward trend.
Since a stepwise downward trend ends in an uptrend, and a stepwise upward trend ends in a downtrend, we should monitor the current trend while preparing for an uptrend.
-
The price is declining in the HA-Low ~ DOM (-60) range (68,687.84 ~ 70,580.26).
Therefore, the key question is whether the price can rise to the 68,687.84 ~ 70,580.26 range.
However,
1. The StochRSI indicator is showing signs of declining from the overbought zone,
2. The BSSC indicator is below zero,
3. The OBV indicator has fallen below the Low Line. Therefore, we should consider a downward trend and consider countermeasures.
We've added the OBV High and OBV Low indicators, which correspond to the High and Low lines of the OBV indicator, to help you intuitively check the current status.
In other words, for an uptrend to continue, the price must remain above the OBV High.
Since the price is currently above the OBV High indicator, we can interpret this as indicating a potential uptrend.
However, since the OBV Low indicator is above it, the price must rise above and remain above the OBV Low indicator to demonstrate an uptrend.
If the price falls below the OBV High indicator, further declines are likely.
Therefore, summarizing the above,
1. To buy, the price must find support in the 68687.84 to 70580.26 range.
2. If not, a step-down trend is likely, and you should consider countermeasures.
3. The start of a step-down trend is likely to begin with a decline below the OBV High indicator.
-
This volatility period is expected to last until February 18th, so movement during this period is crucial.
While it could find support at the OBV High indicator and rise dramatically, this is unlikely.
The next volatility period is around March 9th.
Therefore, we should watch for support and an upward trend around the 57694.27 to 61299.80 range before the next volatility period.
For an uptrend to begin, the StochRSI 20 indicator (75719.90) should provide support.
However, the key to trading is whether the price can buy when it finds support around the critical 69000 to 73499.86 range.
While it's good to buy at a lower price and see the price rise, it's difficult to buy when the actual price touches the 57694.27 to 61299.80 range.
Therefore, it's more likely to buy when the price finds support around 69000 to 73499.86, which meets the conditions for an uptrend.
The next most common buying point is when the price rises above the 75719.90 level, the StochRSI 20 indicator.
This is a psychological phenomenon, so regardless of where you buy, you should develop a trading strategy that suits your investment style.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
Support Zone: 0.2750 ~ 0.2809
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(TRXUSDT 1M Chart)
It looks like there's been a significant drop, but it's still in an uptrend.
To initiate a downtrend, the price must fall below and remain below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
Therefore, from the current price level, it must fall below 0.2548.
-
Support is crucial around the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range (0.2851 ~ 0.3410).
If the price continues to decline, it is likely to fall until it meets the HA-Low or DOM(-60) indicators.
For the uptrend to continue, the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
1. The BSSC indicator should remain above zero,
2. The OBV indicator should remain above the High Line,
3. The StochRSI indicator should not enter the overbought zone.
Therefore, if support is found around 0.2851, the uptrend is expected to continue.
-
(1D Chart)
As mentioned previously on the 1M chart, the StochRSI indicator must turn upward to meet the conditions for a sustained uptrend.
To achieve this, the price must find support near the 0.2750 to 0.2809 level (DOM(-60) to HA-Low range on the 1D chart) and rise above 0.2851.
If the StochRSI indicator is trending upward when it rises above 0.2851, further upside is highly likely.
The HA-High to DOM(60) range on the 1D chart is formed between 0.3110 and 0.3178, so a break above this level is necessary to initiate a stepwise uptrend.
Based on the current price level, the StochRSI 20 indicator is forming at 0.2984, so a rise above 0.2984 is considered a breakout from the low range.
Therefore, our trading points are:
1st: 0.2750 ~ 0.2809
2nd: 0.2984
If support is found near the 1st and 2nd levels above, it's a good time to buy.
If the 1st and 2nd levels above rise, the resistance levels are likely to be:
1st: 0.3110 ~ 0.3178
2nd: 0.3379 ~ 0.3614
1st and 2nd levels above.
In any case, if the price remains above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, the uptrend is likely to continue, so it's a good idea to consider a response plan for the uptrend.
-
Thank you for reading to the end. We wish you a successful transaction.
--------------------------------------------------
The key is whether it can rise above 0.11747 ~ 0.13127
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When interpreting charts, the key is the movement of the 1D chart.
However, the 1D chart has many volatile sections, which can make it difficult to interpret.
In such cases, looking at the 1W chart can help you more easily observe the movement.
-
Looking at the 1W chart, you can see that the price has risen sharply, rising above the Fibonacci level of 0.5 (0.15983).
Therefore, we can see that the Fibonacci level between 0.382 (0.13462) and 0.5 (0.15983) represents a support and resistance zone.
-
Therefore, while the price is currently rising by breaking above the HA-Low ~ DOM (-60) range of 0.09538 ~ 0.09848 on the 1D chart, it's difficult to say that this rise represents the start of an uptrend.
Since the previous DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range was formed around the Fibonacci ratio of 0.382 (0.13462), we can expect an uptrend to begin only if the price rises above the 0.11747 ~ 0.13127 range and holds.
-
In the short term, an uptrend can be interpreted as the start of a price rally when the price stays above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart. However, the full-scale uptrend is more likely to begin when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
From this perspective, the area around the Fibonacci ratio of 0.382 (0.13462) ~ 0.5 (0.15983) mentioned earlier represents both a support and resistance zone.
-
From a trading perspective, the basic trading strategy is to buy in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and sell in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
However, if the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range rises, a stepwise upward trend is likely, while if the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range falls, a stepwise downward trend is likely.
Since a stepwise upward trend ends in a decline and a stepwise downward trend ends in a rise, we should not be afraid and should boldly initiate trades when support is found in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range.
-
Since the coin market trades in decimals, it's easy to increase the number of coins (tokens) you hold.
Therefore, if the price fails to rise after a purchase and instead begins to fall, it's recommended to sell boldly and then, when the price declines, buy back the same amount as the sale to increase your holdings.
However, selling 100% means you're no longer trading, so if possible, you should sell less than 50%.
When the price is rising, it may be more advantageous to hold on to your holdings.
However, if you continuously increase the number of coins (tokens) you hold through trading, which represent profits, you'll be able to reduce the impact and always be in a profitable position even if the price falls.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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