Short-term Bear Case for CRCLHello Traders!
As part of my weekly equity trade analysis, I will be uploading my recordings of what I am seeing and intending to trade for the week. A quick summary of what's in the video is as follows:
- CRCL is a high beta stock that seems to not be moving in tandem with its peers as of late
- I am expecting volatility due to market data and monthly options expiration
- CRCL has formed a new bearish order block below another bearish order block and is wedged with a weekly bearish setup. We are anticipating expansion out of this range to the downside
- I am waiting for a re-test of $199-$205 for a full move to $155-$145
Cheers,
DTD
Orderblocks
GBPUSD - Also continued downside continuationLooking at GU. This is a little bit ahead of its time in comparison to EU.
And what i mean by that is EU is a lot further away from its 4H demand zone compared to GBP so it will be super interesting to see how we react at the level we are fast approaching on GU.
I am in a short position as of Friday. I will be posting a video tomorrow showing exactly how and why i got short on GU so stay tuned for that one.
As always if there is anything else i can be of assistance with give me a message and i will be happy to answer any questions you may have
EURUSD - Still Orderflow remains bearishLooking at EU. The 1H Orderflow is still maintaining that bearish intent. My area is set now for where i want to take a potential sell to the downside seeing as everything else is pretty much mitigated.
The only issue with this potential sell of is that we never really had a sweep of liquidity before we rolled over and moved to the downside.
We do have a level of inducement before our POI but i think in an ideal world i would love to see us build up a bit more liquidity before the POI just to induce the early sellers before making that move to the downside.
For now. On the lower TF's i will be looking to take short term long positions back up to our POI before looking for the longer terms short. to our 4H POI in which i will be looking to get long once again.
Any questions feel free to give me a message
GBPUSD - 2 Selling opportunitiesLooking at GBPUSD
We have 2 opportunities to get short. Both have a build of liquidity before the areas of supply before them. This means we are looking for the early seller to get into the market before we get in so that all the early seller get stopped out.
As we can see the order flow on this is still bearish. So until the market shows me it want to go higher then we will remain bearish
Keep a close eye on this for tomorrow
Gold - Sell inboundGold is looking very promising for another sell off. we are already showing signs that price has intent to move lower with some lower timeframe break of structure.
Just waiting for a manipulation now of the most recent highs put in before price moves lower.
Let's see if we get an entry tonight.
Gold - Sell before longer term buyLooking at gold we are a matter of a few pips away from entry. looking to play gold down till our larger 4H area of demand seeing as we have had a CHoCH to the upside.
There for i will be looking to take my sell position down to 3283.5 at a bare minimum as it was the previous structure level in which we turned around.
Lets see if we get tagged in. If not i will jump down to the lower TF and see if we can get a confirmation that price is going to turn from here.
GBPUSD - 2 potential selling opportunitiesLooking at GBPUSD
We have 2 potential selling POI's.
The first one being a point in which we will need to sit on our hands for a little bit to see what price does at there is no inducement in the push down in the impulse leg. With that being the case we will need to see some sort of inducement built before we enter that POI
IF we clear the first POI I think I will take a more aggressive entry on the secondary POI that sits a little bit higher. This is due to us having already put in some sort of liquidity in and around that POI before pushing lower.
Will wait and see what happens.
Tomorrow could be a very good trading day
EURUSD - Potential sell at LDN or NY openLooking for sell from the POI highlighted
We have raided buy side liquidity so now its time to look at the origin of the move and see if we can further capitalise on a similar set up I took yesterday in order to bank a lovely 8.5% profit on this single trade.
Will post the trade below
XAUUSD Short term Long ideaGold is in bearish market structure currently for long term but we might have a very good chance taking long trades valid for this week only.
The 4H structure shows IFVG formed Monday which is a strong bullish signal to reach the liquidity above, Once we reach the liquidity I will be shifting my trades to bearish.
USDCHF - Potential downside incominglooking at UCHF we have just swept a level of liquidity.
We have had a Change of Character on the 15min to the downside and left a nice inducement / liquidity level alongside a nice FVG that has left a nice bearish orderblock
Once the spreads calm down I will set my pending order on this level and hope to be tagged into this position.
Due to the time it will be a reduced risk entry as I won't be able to manage the trade during the night.
GOLD - POTENTIALLooking at gold. Its still in a bit of limbo after the NFP reaction on Friday. However it is looking like the draw on liquidity is higher. Therefore my bias on gold for the start of the week is bullish so will be looking to get the most optimal entry to take some buys to the upside.
If we can manage to find a decent enough move price really could rally upwards.
EURUSD - Where next?Looking at EURUSD
I still feel like we are due some sort of deeper retracement to the downside considering how bullish the 4H and Daily time frame have been in recent times.
Although the market does not care how I feel in all honesty haha. I will play the short term short until the 15min orderflow switches bullish once again.
The expansion that is currently happing right now is very interesting and makes a good watch to see what we will do come market open as we are engineering liquidity for both a buy and sell with both POI's looking primed for entries.
Will be keeping a close and keen eye on EURUSD when the market opens
Any questions feel free to give me a message
ABCD PatternGHNI Analysis
Closed at 738.08 (04-07-2025)
Monthly Closing above 648 would be
a positive sign.
784 - 785 is the Resistance for now.
It has the potential to touch 1000 - 1100
if it Crosses & Sustains 785 with Good Volumes.
On the flip side, 680 - 682 & then 657 - 660 may
act as a Support.
GOLD SHORT TRADE IDEA ! Gold Looking For Sell On Order Block Zone 3331/3334 Target Will Be 3300
Gold Sell Second Zone Bearish Engulfing + Fresh Supply Target Will Be 3275
Gold Sell First Zone OB H1 (3331/3335
Stoploss - 3345
Tp Levels - 3325,3320,3310,3300
Gold Sell Second Zone Bearish EG + Fresh Supply (3338/3344)
Stoploss - 3350
TP levels : 3330; 3322; 3314; 3330, 3290
BTCUSDT in a sell zone Let's keep it simple.
The IOF is bearish on the H4 timeframe.
Price has retraced to a premium zone.
Technically, once we see a lower timeframe confirmation from these zones, we take a sell.
While I'm eyeing the liquidity at 109050, any break below 106415 will usher us into a sell towards 99000.
Use your proper entry confirmation and risk management.
Market Re-Cap and Outlook for NEXT WEEKHere I am giving you a little insight as to what trades I am currently in, taken & looking to take for the week just gone and the week coming.
1 Winning trade on EU
1 Current open position on EU
EURGPB - Breakdown
AUDUSD - Breakdown
NZDUSD - Breakdown
Gold - Breakdown
If there are any pairs you would like me to share my feedback on give me a message and I will be happy to try and do so.
Thanks
Happy Hunting
EURUSD - Potential buying opportunityLooking at EURUSD
We are still very bullish with no sign of it slowing.
I am aware of a potential weekly liquidity point to the left, however, until EURUSD shows its hand it's important that we still remain bullish.
We have set up a lovely liquidity point before a lovely demand area.
So I will be setting a pending order at the demand area after the New York close and the Asian session begins.
USDCAD - Long triggered We have entered into the discount area of the most recent swing point on USDCAD. With doing this we have taken out all the areas of liquidity within the trading range so it was time to look for potential long moves.
Now at current price we have had a great example of AMD where by we
Accumulate
Manipulate
and then the hope is that we begin to distribute higher.
There was also a nice fair value gap that was left behind on the 5min
So all that was left to do was execute.
Let us see how it plays out.
Win or lose great entry super happy with the trade. Lets see how it goes
BTC Loses Key Level — Will 100K Hold or Fold?Bitcoin has been locked in a range for the past 45 days, clinging above the critical psychological support at $100K. But cracks are starting to show…
Every bounce from the key level at $102,430 has been weakening — and now, for the first time, we’re breaking cleanly below it. Things are starting to tilt bearish.
So the question is…
⛏️ Will 100K be tested next?
🔍 Key Support Zone: $97.7K–$96.9K
Using the Fibonacci retracement from the swing low at $74.5K to the recent ATH, the 0.382 retracement lands at $97,655 — just below the $100K mark.
But there’s more…
Here’s why the zone between $97.7K and $96.9K is crucial:
0.382 Fibonacci retracement: A common pullback level in strong uptrends.
Anchored VWAP from $74.5K: Currently sitting around $96.9K, tracking cumulative volume-weighted average price — a key level.
Daily Order Block: Sits right at $96,887, aligning with the VWAP and reinforcing the area as demand-rich.
1.272 Fibonacci extension: From the previous move — providing another layer of confluence.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): The imbalance lies right in this zone. Price often fills these before continuing trend.
All of this stacks up to a high-probability long setup.
🕵️♂️ What to Do Now?
Set alerts at $100K and watch for a reaction. If price slices through, shift focus to the 0.382 Fib — monitor price action closely for signs of a reversal.
The first clean test of this zone could present a solid long — but as usual don’t trade blindly. Wait for confirmation.
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