GER40 (DE40) SHORT - Double top 15minPotential short on GER40 with a double top on the 15min.
There is negative rsi divergence which is one of the indicators I use to look for double tops.
Still waiting on further confirmation before I take the trade.
Risk/reward = 3.2
Entry price = 23 905
Stop loss price = 23 965
Take profit level 1 (50%) = 23745
Take profit level 2 (50%) = 23684
What do you guys and girls think the GER40 is going to do from here?
Oscillators
NASDAQ (CASH100) SHORT - head and shoulders 15minPotential short on nas100 (cash100) with head and shoulders on the 15min.
Still waiting for confirmation on some of my variables before I enter.
Risk/reward = 3.3
Entry price = 23 262
Stop loss price = 23 287.3
Take profit level 1 (50%) = 23 184
Take profit level 2 (50%) = 23 153
What do you guys and girls think the nasdaq is going to do?
China A50 bullish setupChina A50 remains in an uptrend, marked by higher lows since April and repeated bounces from the 50-day moving average. With both 50 and 200-day averages pointing higher, the bias favours playing from the long side.
A break and hold above 13812 would generate a bullish setup, opening the door for longs with stop beneath for protection. 13900 is the first hurdle, followed by 14000, with 14185 as a potential target. A clean break there would put 14409 in play. If the index can’t hold 13812, the focus flips back to the 50-day moving average as near-term support.
Good luck!
DS
Crypto consolidating ahead of rally towards All Time HighsWith US equity markets closed for Juneteenth, I'm checking in on an equal weight basket of cryptos. Recently I said crypto looked to be heating up for a run at new highs.
As I look today, prices appear range bound on the daily chart. There's a bearish double-top formation, beside declining momentum. The bottom of the range resting at the 200 Day Moving Average, and a test of it seems likely.
Should there be a bounce off the 200 Day SMA, and a break through the top end of the range we might get a shot at those new All Time Highs.
Small Caps: Rebound or rollover at 200DMA?Near-term price action in U.S. small-cap stocks may be instructive for assessing longer-term directional risks, with the contract trading near the key 200-day simple moving average.
Despite breaking uptrend support and extending the bearish move late last week, buying dips remains the preferred strategy unless there’s clear evidence the U.S. economy is sliding into recession—an outcome unlikely to be resolved near-term with only second-tier economic data on the calendar this week. That also means market pricing for just under 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts by mid-2026 is unlikely to shift dramatically, helping to support risk appetite.
If the contract can reclaim the 200DMA and hold there, longs could be initiated with a stop beneath the level for protection against reversal. 2192 is an early hurdle for bulls with a break of that level opening the door for a run towards 2240 or even 2278.
Alternatively, if the contract remains capped beneath the 200DMA, the setup could be flipped with shorts established below the level and a stop above. Friday’s low and 2133 are obvious near-term targets, with support at 2075 the next downside level after that.
Momentum indicators remain mixed despite rolling over in late July, placing more weight on price action rather than any firm directional bias.
Good luck!
DS
$TOTAL2ES/BTC Weekly Close AlertA bit concerning seeing CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 get rejected at the 50WMA and close below it for the 3rd consecutive week against CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Also flirting below the neckline breakout.
PA is still above the EMA9, which needs to hold to keep momentum.
Saving grace is the bullish divergence on the RSI.
$BTC One Last Flush Before the Next Leg Up!Technical Analysis really is a beautiful thing.
As mentioned, price heading down to ~$111k.
Had a small bounce off the 50DMA at $112k.
Hopefully PA doesn’t range for too long in the previous ATH POI. That will really take steam out of the bull’s engine.
I’m expecting one last flush to push the RSI a bit lower before we can continue the trend back up.
As always in a bull market, BTFD!
80% drop into the abyss for Solana? - July 2025** The months ahead **
Examination of the 3-week chart for SOLANA reveals several compelling technical signals that suggest a potential bearish trend reversal. This analysis highlights crucial patterns traders and investors of Solana should consider.
1. Formation of a 3-Week Death Cross:
A notable bearish signal prints on the chart: a ‘3-week death cross’. This follows a ‘2-week death cross’ that preceded a significant downward movement, just as in early 2022. The death cross, where a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term one, is a strong indicator of a shift towards a bearish trend, especially on higher timeframes like this 3-week chart.
2. Broken Market Structure:
The chart clearly indicates a “broken market structure.” This typically occurs when the price fails to create higher highs and higher lows during an uptrend, or in this case, breaks below a significant support level that had previously held. It is absolutely possible price action backtests past support for a resistance confirmation, however on looking left, such a test never occurred on the last death cross.
3. Resistance from Previous Peaks (Head and Shoulders Pattern):
Price action leading up to the recent highs resembles a potential ‘Head and Shoulders’ pattern. The three distinct peaks, with the middle peak being the highest, suggest a classic reversal pattern. A subsequent break below the ‘neckline’ (implied support level below the peaks) would confirm the bearish outlook.
4. RSI Oscillator (bottom of chart) resistance
The lower panel of the chart displays an RSI oscillator indicator, which shows a clear pattern of "resistance." following a period of support since 2023. The RSI has clearly confirmed resistance from almost 3 years of support.
5. Solana vs Bitcoin
All the bearish observations made on the SOL-USD trading pair can be observed on the same 3 week time frame for the SOLANA - BITCOIN trading pair:
6. Potential for Significant Downside Target:
Based on the measured move from the previous death cross and breakdown and Fibonacci extension, the chart illustrates a potential downside target of approximately -70% from current levels toward the $30-40 area. While this is a projected target and not guaranteed, the historical precedent following similar bearish signals provides a context for the potential severity of the downturn if the bearish momentum continues.
Conclusion:
Considering the confluence of a 3-week death cross, broken market structure, resistance from previous peaks (suggesting a potential Head and Shoulders pattern), and the confirmation of RSI resistance, the outlook for SOLANA on the 3-week timeframe appears distinctly bearish.
Is it possible price action continues upwards after a 3200% rally? Sure.
Is it probable? No
Ww
JD last correction is overSince fiscal stimulus announced by China, JD started to print an expanding diagonal which I labeled in black as 1-2-3-4-5. Currently, wave 4 is over (or will be over within a few days) and wave 5, the longest in such a type of diagonal, is set to unfold.
Which supportive evidence I found:
wave 4 is formed as a double three as (w)-(x)-(y) and (y) contains and ending diagonal - see green impulsive wave down. The diagonal's wave 5 reached the lower edge.
wave 4 retraced 61.8% of wave 3
wave can be seen as a bullish flag - it nicely fits into the channel (I showed in green)
both RSI and MACD show bullish divergence with price on daily
I believe JD will revert with strong impulse up in the coming days.
See divergences:
KIMLUN - DMI and RSI shows BULLISH SIGNAL KIMLUN - CURRENT PRICE : RM1.31
KIMLUN is in an uptrend for medium term as the price is making higher high and higher low. Supported by positive readings in technical oscillators such as DMI (+DI is above -DI) and RSI (above 50), it increases the bullish scenario. At current price trading near SMA 20, there is possibility for price reach upper band in bollinger bands indicator. Nearest support will be RM1.24 (-5.34%) and 1st target will be RM1.41 (+7.63%).
ENTRY PRICE : RM1.30 - RM1.31
TARGET : RM1.41 and RM1.47
SUPPORT : RM1.24
Notes : On the fundamental side, KIMLUN shows a strong recovery in earnings. For FY2022, company was loss RM7.2 million. Then the company rebounded with a profit of RM7.1 million in FY2023. For FY2024, company registered strong performance of profit RM50.3 million.
$BTC CME Gap + Bad Bart = Easiest Short EverCME Gap + Bad Bart is like taking candy from a baby 👨🏻🍼
Look at that textbook bounce off the .382 Fib 🤓
Pain ain’t over folks.
RSI still shows room on the downside 📉
Global Liquidity drain on the 4th.
Looking like the 50% Gann Level is next ~$111k
Get those bids in 😎
And never forget the BullTards who were telling you about the “Bollinger Band Squeeze” and UpOnly season 🫠
$PEPE: the big picture, 1W analysis.August 1st, 2025 – A tough day for altcoins, hit once again by tariff concerns.
But let’s talk about CRYPTOCAP:PEPE , one of my favorite altcoins to track. Why? No VC backing, the entire supply is community-held, and volume is consistently strong—making it a reliable market sentiment indicator.
Weekly Outlook:
CRYPTOCAP:PEPE remains in a macro uptrend, riding above the 100 EMA.
- My Momentum indicator has triggered two buy signals: at 0.00000634 and 0.00001040
- RSI is rising but still mid-range—there’s plenty of room to move higher.
- MACD is gradually ramping up.
- Stochastic RSI is cooling off, but given the strength of the other signals, further downside looks limited.
Technically, we’re seeing a bullish flag pattern. Price is currently testing support at the lower range—likely setting the stage for a decisive move in the coming weeks.
Conclusion:
Based on the current indicators and structure, the odds favor a bullish breakout and continuation of the uptrend—though, as always, DYOR.
Gold: final pullback or bull trap?On the 1H chart, gold (GOLD) is forming a bullish flag after a sharp decline, which may just be a corrective move within a broader downtrend. The price is now approaching the key resistance zone around $3313–$3317 - this area holds the POC, broken trendline, and the 0.705–0.79 Fibonacci retracement from the last drop. This is the decision-making zone.
If bulls fail to push above it, we expect a move down toward $3268 - the next strong support and potential buy zone, also confirmed by Fibonacci and local demand. Stochastic divergence and slowing volume suggest a possible rebound from that level. However, if the price breaks and holds above $3317, this would indicate a local trend reversal, with targets at $3333 and $3374.
Watch the $3317 zone closely - bulls have yet to prove this is more than just a bounce.
Deep Dive Into Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)🗓 The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is one of the most popular momentum indicators in technical analysis. Whether you're a beginner or an experienced trader, understanding how the MACD works can significantly enhance your trading decisions.
📚 Introduction: What Is MACD and Why It Matters
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is one of the most powerful and widely used momentum indicators in technical analysis. It was developed by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s and has since become a staple in the toolkit of traders and investors across markets — from stocks and forex to cryptocurrencies.
At its core, MACD helps traders understand the relationship between two moving averages of an asset’s price, providing insight into both trend direction and momentum strength. By analyzing how these averages converge and diverge, the indicator offers valuable signals for entries, exits, and trend reversals.
What makes MACD especially popular is its versatility — it works well in trending markets, can be used across all timeframes, and combines both leading and lagging components. Whether you're a day trader or a long-term investor, understanding how MACD works gives you an edge in making timely and informed trading decisions.
📚 How the MACD Is Calculated: The Components Explained
The MACD is built from three core components: MACD line, Signal line and MACD histogram.
🔹 Calculating the MACD Line:
The MACD line is the difference between two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), typically 12-period EMA (fast) and 26-period EMA (slow). The formula is:
MACD Line = EMA(12) − EMA(26)
This line captures momentum by tracking how the shorter-term average diverges from the longer-term average. When the MACD line rises, the short-term momentum is increasing faster than the longer-term trend — a sign of bullish acceleration. The reverse implies bearish momentum.
🔹 Calculating the Signal Line:
To reduce noise and provide clearer signals, a 9-period EMA of the MACD line is plotted on top. This is the Signal Line, and it acts as a trigger:
When the MACD line crosses above the signal line → bullish signal (buy)
When the MACD line crosses below the signal line → bearish signal (sell)
Signal Line = EMA(9)(MACD Line)
🔹 Calculating the MACD Histogram:
The Histogram shows the difference between the MACD Line and the Signal Line:
Histogram = MACD Line − Signal Line
It provides a visual representation of momentum strength. The histogram bars expand when momentum strengthens and contract as it fades. It helps you spot shifts in momentum earlier than a basic crossover.
📚 How to Use MACD in Trading Strategies
⚡️MACD Signal Line Crossover
Buy Signal:
MACD Line crosses above the Signal Line from below (bullish crossover)
Preferably when both lines are below the zero line (early in the trend)
Price closes above the long-term trend approximation, in our case we use 200-period EMA
Sell Signal:
MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line from above (bearish crossover)
Preferably when both lines are above the zero line (early in the trend)
Price closes below the long-term trend approximation, in our case we use 200-period EMA
📈Long Trading Strategy Example
1. Wait until MACD line crosses over the Signal line from down to up. In our example we use 1D time frame for BITMART:BTCUSDT.P . Open long trade if point 2 will be completed.
2. Price candle shall be closed above the 200-period EMA. This is long-term trend filter to increase the probability that trades will be open only in the direction of the main trend.
3. Close the long trade when the MACD line crosses under the Signal line. This is an approximation that short-term impulse is over and correction is about to start.
In our case we have +20% return on this long trade, but, please, notice that we have not used initial stop-loss in this strategy. Trade was closed according to the technical condition, this approach can violate the risk management rules, but also can be applicable if you trade the amount ready to lose using this strategy. We will talk about stop-loss later.
📉Short trading strategy example
1. Wait until MACD line crosses under the Signal line from up to down. In our example we use 1D time frame for BITMART:ETHUSDT . Open short trade if point 2 will be completed.
2. Price candle shall be closed below the 200-period EMA. This is long-term trend filter to increase the probability that trades will be open only in the direction of the main trend.
3. Close the short trade when the MACD line crosses over the Signal line. This is an approximation that short-term impulse is over and correction is about to start.
In this case we have +15% return on the short trade. Again, strategy used the technical condition to close the trade and now let's cover how to place the stop-loss. There is no right answer how to use stop-losses. The first and the most obvious way to place stop-loss is using recent swing low/high, but the problem is that all traders are seeing them and do the same. Price tends to reach such levels to collect liquidity.
Another one way to place stop-loss is using the signal candle's high/low. This is so-called 1 candle stop-loss. Usually it's very tight and can allow to have the fantastic risk to reward ratio, but we are now recommend to use it if you are not a professional trader because win rate of such strategy decreases.
Third approach in placing stop-loss which we often use in our algorithmic strategies is the Average True Range (ATR). ATR is the volatility measurement, it allows to take into account the current volatility. Sometimes it helps to avoid the stop-loss hit when trade finally goes in your direction. You can just simply subtract (in case of long trade) or add (in case of short trade) ATR value to the entry price and obtain the dynamic stop loss based on current market condition. Also multiplier can be used for ATR. You shall choose the approach which is more comfortable for you, backtest all these approached to make your choice.
🧪Important: we used the long signals only below the zero-line and short signals above it in the attempt to catch the beginning of a trend and have large potential move. On the picture below you can see the same BITMART:BTCUSDT.P , but what will happen if we open long on the lines crossover above zero line? This trade will not be profitable because of restricted potential.
⚡️MACD Zero Line Crossover
Buy Signal:
MACD Histogram crosses above the zero line (momentum shifts from bearish to bullish)
Price closes above the long-term trend approximation, in our case we use 200-period EMA
Sell Signal:
MACD Histogram crosses below the zero line (momentum shifts from bullish to bearish)
Price closes below the long-term trend approximation, in our case we use 200-period EMA
📈Long Trading Strategy Example
1. Wait until MACD Histogram crosses over zero line. Open long trade if point 2 will be completed.
2. Price candle shall be closed above 200-period EMA. This is long-term trend filter to increase the probability that trades will be open only in the direction of the main trend.
3. Take profit when price reaches 3:1 risk to reward ratio according to the stop-loss from point 4.
4. Stop-loss shall be placed below recent swing low. This point can be discussed, you can use any stop-loss technique described earlier in this article. We demonstrate the simplest one, the key here is using at least 3:1 RR.
📉Short trading strategy example
1. Wait until MACD Histogram crosses under zero line. Open short trade if point 2 will be completed.
2. Price candle shall be closed below 200-period EMA. This is long-term trend filter to increase the probability that trades will be open only in the direction of the main trend.
3. Take profit when price reaches 3:1 risk to reward ratio according to the stop-loss from point 4.
4. Stop-loss shall be placed above recent swing high. This point can be discussed, you can use any stop-loss technique described earlier in this article. We demonstrate the simplest one, the key here is using at least 3:1 RR.
⚡️MACD Divergence Strategy
MACD Divergence is a strategy that helps traders identify potential reversals in market direction before they become obvious on the price chart. This makes it a favorite tool among swing traders and crypto enthusiasts looking to catch major moves early.
But what exactly is a divergence? In simple terms, divergence occurs when price and momentum (MACD) are moving in opposite directions — signaling that the current trend may be losing strength and preparing for a reversal. There are two main types of divergence.
🐂 Bullish Divergence
Price makes a lower low
MACD Histogram makes a higher low
This suggests that while price is still falling, downward momentum is weakening. The bears are losing control, and a bullish reversal may be near. Trading signal is very simple, when bullish divergence happens wait for the first increasing column on MACD histogram and open long trade. Place stop-loss under recent swing low and take profit at 3:1 RR.
🐻Bearish Divergence
Price makes a higher high
MACD makes a lower high
This suggests that while price is still falling, downward momentum is weakening. The bears are losing control, and a bullish reversal may be near. Trading signal is very simple, when bearish divergence happens wait for the first decreasing column on MACD histogram and open short trade. Place stop-loss above recent swing high and take profit at 3:1 RR.
🧪 Important hint: MACD histogram shall cross the zero line between two lows/high to create the most reliable divergence signals. We are not recommend to use it without zero-line crossover to decrease number of false signals.
📈Long Trading Strategy Example
1. MACD Histogram shall create higher low.
2. Price shall create lower low.
3. MACD Histogram shall cross the zero line between lows.
4. MACD Histogram shall show the first increasing column.
5. Put stop-loss under the recent swing low.
6. Put take profit at 3:1.
🧪 You can enhance the long signal with the MACD Line divergence. In our case we have both divergences: with MACD Histogram and MACD Line.
📉Short trading strategy example
1. MACD Histogram shall create lower high.
2. Price shall create higher high.
3. MACD Histogram shall cross the zero line between lows.
4. MACD Histogram shall show the first decreasing column.
5. Put stop-loss above the recent swing high.
6. Put take profit at 3:1.
🧪Divergence is extremely strong signal, but when price continue it's move in the direction of a trend and it's not reversing it can also be the signal for the trend continuation. This situation is called "Baskerville Hound" signal, this name was given by famous trader Alexander Elder. We don't recommend to use it for novice traders, but it's useful to know about it.
📚 Conclusion
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is more than just a crossover tool — it's a powerful momentum indicator that offers deep insight into the strength, direction, and timing of market trends. By understanding how the MACD line, Signal line, and Histogram interact, traders can uncover early trend shifts, spot momentum divergences, and time entries and exits with greater confidence.
Whether you're a short-term trader using fast crossovers for scalping or a long-term investor watching for weekly divergences, MACD can adapt to your style when used thoughtfully. Like all indicators, it works best when combined with price action, support/resistance levels, and other indicators — not in isolation.
Ultimately, mastering MACD is not about memorizing patterns, but about learning to read the story of momentum that unfolds beneath the surface of price. With disciplined application and practice, MACD can become a reliable compass in your trading strategy.
Gold (XAUUSD) – H1 Wave 5 in Progress | Bearish Setup Building📉 Gold (XAUUSD) – H1 Wave 5 in Progress | Bearish Setup Building
🕐 Timeframe: H1
🔍 Strategy: Elliott Wave + Support/Resistance + AO Divergence
The market has likely initiated Wave 5 on the H1 timeframe following a clean 5-wave structure. We’re now watching for the internal corrective Wave 4 of Wave 5 to complete.
📌 Key Zone to Watch:
Fibonacci Level 2.618 lines up with a previous support-turned-resistance zone — a high-probability reversal area.
Awesome Oscillator (AO) shows convergence, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
🔧 Execution Plan:
Waiting for M15 break of structure to confirm the end of the corrective sub-wave.
Will look to enter sell on confirmation of bearish continuation.
🎯 Target Zone:
The shaded green area below marks a strong support zone — potential TP area for Wave 5 completion.
Bearish Setup on Nike ($NKE): Divergence + Supply Rejection📉 I'm watching a high-probability bearish setup on NYSE:NKE , with price rejecting a key 1D supply zone ($77–80) on bearish RSI divergence and fading momentum. A downside gap below adds further confluence.
📊 Technical Context:
Clear 1D supply rejection with divergence
Lower RSI highs vs higher price highs = Bearish divergence
Volume weakening near resistance
Open gap ($65–$68.67) below = magnetic target
Previous BOS indicates potential for continuation move lower
🎯 Strategy Ideas:
Bear Call Spread 80/85 (credit spread with resistance overhead)
Put Debit Spread 75/65 (targeting full gap fill)
⏳ Expiry: Sep 20 – well-timed before IV builds
📌 Setup offers attractive R/R with clearly defined invalidation above $81
🔔 Key Alerts:
$81: "Invalidation – bias flips if breakout confirmed"
$68.67: "Gap close in progress – partial target zone"
➡️ Follow for structured trade setups combining price action, divergence, and options strategies.
Intel: Still Not Cheap Enough?Intel has been falling for years, but some traders may think it’s still not cheap enough.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of higher lows since April, combined with lower highs since February. That converging range is a potential consolidation pattern.
Second, the chipmaker broke that range by gapping lower on Friday following a weak quarterly report.
Third, traders may eye $17.67 as the next important level. That April low was also the lowest price since August 2010.
Fourth, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) inched toward the 200-day SMA this month but failed to cross above it. Is a longer-term bearish trend in effect?
Next, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA and MACD is falling. Both of those signals may be consistent with bearishness in the short term.
Finally, INTC is an active underlier in the options market. (Its average daily volume of about 350,000 contacts ranks 10th the S&P 500, according to TradeStation Data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts.
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