How To: Bearish Breakaway w/ Tools, Indicators & StrategyHey everyone, thanks for joining! Below is the Quick Notes for the audio:
What is a Bearish Breakaway?
A Rare Reversal Candlestick Pattern that consists of 5 Candles, broken up into 3 parts:
Pt 1) Large Bullish Candle
Pt 2) 3 Small Bullish Candles
Pt 3) Large Bearish Candle (Confirmation)
What indicators can be used to Confirm?
1) Volume - Dwindles after the first Large Bullish Candle then Increases after the Large Bearish Candle
2) RSI - The reversal is part of a Bullish Divergence then drops below 50 after the pattern is formed
3) MACD - Crossover event with Signal above the MACD moving down towards 0 with Bearish bars developing on the Histogram
Strategy needed to trade the pattern?
Entry - On the Open of the candle after the 5th of Confirmation Candle
SL - Above the High of the Pattern
TP - Next areas of Support ( Conservative & Aggressive options )
Oscillators
Forecast: DAX Revisiting 2009 LevelsI know this is a depressing suggestion — that equities could lose 70% or more of their current value. If you entered the market after the 2008 crisis, you have only known 17 years of growth. I do not blame you if this idea sounds unthinkable and I hope that I am wrong, but I think this setup is technically credible. It matches the mechanics I have seen across different markets and timeframes. For reference, see my similar idea "Later, Bitcoin!", which played out exactly as expected.
Technicals
The overall trend is still bullish, but because the 2020 pullback failed to fully reset the market, it has advanced in what I consider an unsustainable way. That has created a divergence between price and momentum, visible in RSI. From a pitchfork perspective, price tends to gravitate toward the next median line, where it can stall, break through, or reverse. The DAX has already hesitated around the middle line several times, and with the trend barrier now broken, I think a reversal may begin once we bid farewell to the nearby supply zone.
Once the decline starts, I expect price to at least reach the dotted line of the crosswind channel through what I call a nostalgia retracement — a return to old, broken, downsloping structures that often occurs before the trend resumes. In my experience, where horizontal support intersects with downsloping structures often becomes an attraction point for price. On the linear chart, I see the next meaningful support around 3,800.
Macro backdrop
The global fiat system, built on debt expansion and growing liquidity, can support rising asset prices for a long time — but that does not mean bubbles cannot burst. Germany has already been losing momentum, and the country’s 2026 growth forecast was just cut to 0.5% while inflation expectations were revised higher as rising energy costs weigh on the economy. That matters for the DAX because Germany remains highly exposed to industrial and energy-sensitive sectors.
Now add the war involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Major forecasters including the IEA have warned that the conflict has already disrupted oil supply, driven up energy prices, and worsened the global growth outlook. In that kind of environment, stagflation risk rises and both households and investors are forced to prioritize essentials like fuel and food over risk assets.
As for timing, the yield curve adds another warning signal. Historically, inversions have often preceded recessions, and normalization after inversion has frequently happened close to the downturn rather than far ahead of it. I do not treat that as a fixed rule, but in the current backdrop it adds to the view that the macro picture is fragile rather than supportive.
NETFLIX - Buy The Dip: Confluence Support HoldingNFLX - CURRENT PRICE : 91.82
Netflix is showing a constructive pullback into a confluence support zone, where price is retracing toward the EMA 50 while simultaneously testing the gap-up demand area. The retracement is also holding near the Fibonacci 38.2% golden ratio, which typically acts as a healthy correction within a developing rebound structure. This combination suggests selling pressure is fading and buyers are stepping in at higher levels, increasing the probability of a continuation move.
Momentum-wise, RSI has cooled from overbought levels and is stabilizing above midline, indicating pullback rather than trend breakdown. As long as price holds above the support cluster, the structure remains bullish for a move higher.
Technical Levels
Buy on weakness / near current zone
Target 1: 99 USD (EMA 200 test) 🎯
Target 2: 108 USD (next resistance zone) 🚀
Support / Invalidation: 86 USD
Risk-Reward: Attractive, with limited downside to 86 vs upside toward 99–108
Overall, the pullback into EMA50 + gap support + 38.2% Fibonacci creates a high-probability technical buy setup, favoring a rebound toward the EMA200 first, followed by a continuation to 108 if momentum builds.
SPX – 7000 Resistance: Pullback or Reversal?SPX has rallied impulsively back into the 7,000–7,050 resistance zone on the 4H chart, the same level that acted as support throughout late 2025 before the breakdown. Price flipped this zone into resistance, and now we're testing it again from below.
Why this level matters
7,000 is not just a technical level, it's a major psychological barrier. Round numbers attract institutional orders, and this one has proven itself multiple times. The rejection is already visible on the current candle.
RSI is screaming overbought
RSI(14) is sitting at 77, the highest reading in months. The last time RSI was this extended was before the March sell-off. Momentum divergence at resistance is a high-probability warning sign.
Two scenarios from here
A wide pullback toward 6,600–6,700 is the base case, a healthy retracement before any potential continuation higher. A full reversal targeting the 6,300–6,400 range is the bear case, especially if macro conditions deteriorate further or this level fails to hold on a retest.
Bottom line
Chasing longs at 7,000 with RSI at 77 is a low risk/reward setup. Wait for a reaction. Either a clean breakout and retest of 7,000 as support, or short entries on confirmed rejection.
Not financial advice. Trade your own plan.
Rebound from oversold.Well, then.
I repeat for the tenth time that everything is very slow. But.
The reliability of the confirmation is very high.
Alts have been trudging through this oversold zone for 2.5 months.
There has never been so much. In addition, the bottom is fixed.
Correlation gap of the stock market and the crypto market in its
behavior may nevertheless show a new reality.
Which has been talked about so much over the years.
Considering what just happened to the SP500.
Soybean Oil Looks Ready to Rip if 70 Cents Gives WayOur soybean contract continues to coil within an ascending triangle structure, consolidating upon the sharp rally seen since the beginning of the year. Having bounced from beneath 66 cents earlier this week, the price has surged higher over the past two sessions, breaking above minor resistance at 68.7 cents to sit just beneath key resistance at 70 cents.
The bullish price action likely reflects soybean oil’s growing linkage to energy markets through biodiesel demand. With the Iran war keeping supply disruption risks elevated and crude prices supported, sentiment has likely been underpinned. Combined with an already strong uptrend, it helps explain why dips continue to attract buyers.
Considering the last swing high and low delivered textbook reversal patterns, it suggests the price action is not only being driven by fundamentals linked to the energy crisis, but also technicals, meaning price action at 70 cents, if it gets there, may be instructive on directional risks.
If we see a sustained breakout above 70 cents, convention suggests it could lead to an extension of the prevailing bullish move towards the November 2022 swing high of 77.3 cents. Longs could be set on the breakout with a tight stop beneath for protection, targeting 77.3 cents.
However, the April 7 high around 70.6 cents and July 2023 high of 71.04 cents are levels of note in between, making price action around both important when assessing whether the trade target can be achieved.
While the prevailing structure points to the risk of an eventual bullish breakout, you also can't ignore that the price has been rejected twice already at 70 cents. If the same is seen again, it would allow for shorts to be set with a tight stop above, targeting 68.7 cents initially and the March uptrend around 66 cents today after that.
Upside strength has been easing from extreme levels earlier this year, although both RSI (14) and MACD continue to favour a bullish bias. As such, long setups are preferred at this juncture.
Good luck!
DS
BTC Structure Update (daily)Bitcoin is starting to show signs of short-term strength as structure continues to improve.
Price has now reclaimed the 10, 20, and 50 EMAs, with the 10/20 crossing back above the 50. This shift signals building momentum in the near term and a transition away from the prior downside pressure phase.
However, zooming out, all key short-term EMAs are still positioned below the 200 EMA. That keeps the broader structure in a recovery phase rather than a fully confirmed long-term uptrend.
Momentum indicators are aligning with this shift:
• RSI is holding steady around 62 → strong participation without being overextended
• ROC is stabilizing with a slight upward tilt → early signs of momentum rebuilding
Overall, the market is showing constructive behavior. Strength is returning, but it hasn’t fully transitioned into a long-term bullish structure just yet.
Summary :
Short-term momentum is improving and structure is strengthening, but the 200 EMA remains the key level. Reclaiming that would signal a more complete shift in trend.
Grounds for support.I haven't looked at Bitcoin for a long time, but it has started to fall,
breaking through the weekly Ichimoku cloud, which took many weeks to form.
It is now more important to say where its reliable support zone is.
Reverse RSI gave it a red bearish flag, which is not very good, but it is normal
considering how much it had grown before that.
I note the coincidence of the EMA 200 zone and the oversold Revers RSI
at around 68,000.
But in addition, we will need to see a new bullish RSI (green candles), which will
change the structure of the process. We will be able to talk about this no earlier
than after the retest. Will it be single, double, or with sideways movement?
It is impossible to say anything about this now.
I expect Bitcoin to find support there.
TESLA - THIS BREAKOUT LOOKS FAMILIAR… HISTORY REPEATING?TSLA - CURRENT PRICE : 380.00 - 382.00
TESLA (TSLA) — TECHNICAL BUY CALL
Tesla is showing a repeatable breakout structure, where price has broken out from a descending channel, signaling a potential end to the downtrend phase. This is similar to the previous setup (refer to the green vertical line), where a breakout was followed by a sustained upward move. The key confirmation here is momentum—RSI has pushed back above the 50 level, indicating a shift from bearish to bullish momentum and supporting the validity of the breakout.
This combination of structure break (price) + momentum confirmation (RSI > 50) suggests buyers are regaining control and a new upward leg may be developing. As long as price holds above the breakout zone, this setup favors continuation to the upside, making it an early entry opportunity before stronger momentum kicks in.
ENTRY PRICE : 380.00 - 382.00
FIRST TARGET : 423.00
SECOND TARGET : 450.00
SUPPORT : 337.25 (the low of 9 April 2026)
CHF/JPY surges back to highs as breakout pressure buildsAfter threatening to break the strong bullish trend in place since February 2025 in the early stages of the Iran war late last month, CHF/JPY has resumed its bullish trajectory over the past fortnight, bouncing strongly from beneath the 100-day moving average and springboarding back towards the record high of 204.00 set earlier this year, taking out the 50-day moving average along with resistance at 200.30 and 202.64 along the way.
With RSI (14) trending higher above 50 while MACD has flipped positive after crossing the signal line from below last week, the message from the oscillators is increasingly bullish, with strengthening upside momentum improving the prospects of a breakout sticking.
However, the bears have form at 204, having already repelled two bullish moves in the recent past. A doji printed on the daily chart on Tuesday, completing the second leg of a three-candle evening star pattern, putting emphasis on the price action on Wednesday. A close beneath 202.64 would strengthen the bearish reversal signal, especially given it would follow a strong bullish move beforehand.
A close beneath 202.64 would also see the price settle more than halfway down Monday’s bullish candle, completing the evening star. That would put the 50-day moving average, the February 2025 uptrend and 200.30 support on the radar for potential downside targets. A clean break of the latter two would signal a possible trend change, opening the door to further downside should that scenario eventuate.
If the bullish price action and momentum picture delivers a breakout, which is currently the preferred setup, longs may be considered above 204.00 with a tight stop beneath for protection. A close above 204 would strengthen conviction, with the preference to wait for subsequent topping patterns to assess whether to hold, cut or reverse rather than nominating a specific extension target.
Good luck!
DS
EURUSD- Get Ready For a Higher Degree Wave 5On the higher timeframe, Wave 4 appears completed with a depth that fits well within the overall structure, shifting focus toward a potential Wave 5 to the upside.
On the lower timeframe, the correction unfolded as a WXY structure. We are now seeing early 1–2 formations, suggesting a transition into impulsive price action.
Additional confluence comes from momentum, with bullish MACD divergence on the 2H–4H and bullish crosses forming on higher timeframes.
Entry: 1.15705
Stop Loss: 1.14457
This setup is based on structural alignment and confirmation, not prediction. We let price develop and react accordingly.
Greenback May Have Space to the DownsideThe U.S. Dollar Index jumped last month, but some traders may think it has space to the downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the drop last Wednesday after President Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran.
Second, the 200-day simple moving average was falling before the dip. That could reflect a longer-term downtrend.
Third, the slightly higher highs since August 1 may be viewed as a topping pattern.
Next, MACD is falling.
Finally, DXY hit a four-year low around 95.55 in January. Could traders expect a retest?
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Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Oracle: Divergence and Double Bottom?Oracle has been the poster child for software weakness for months, but some traders may think it’s ready to bounce.
The first pattern on today’s chart is February 5’s low of $135.25. ORCL held that level on Friday, which could be viewed as a potential double-bottom reversal pattern.
Second, Wilder’s RSI has made lower highs since the initial low. Is that bullish divergence?
Third, prices closed above the 50-day simple moving average for the first time since late October.
Finally, ORCL rallied after its last earnings report on March 10. That may reflect improving fundamentals.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. Learn more here about TradingView’s Broker of the Year!
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Bitcoin Bullish Signals Grow but Price Still Needs to DeliverBTC/USD is testing the top of the key $73,500–$74,500 resistance range after breaking the October 2025 downtrend running from the record highs on Monday, putting traders on alert for a potential trend shift. However, with one failed break already above the zone, echoing the price action seen in March when a similar bullish attempt quickly fizzled, and with the 100-day moving average looming overhead, this screens more as a market to watch rather than chase.
Should the price break and hold above the 100-day moving average and $76,000, where the price peaked in March, longs could be considered with stops placed within or just beneath the former resistance zone for protection, initially targeting the November 21 low of $80,550.
With RSI (14) and MACD turning higher, alongside a 50-day moving average that is beginning to slope higher, it tilts the near-term bias towards long setups over shorts, improving the odds of a bullish breakout holding if it eventuates.
Good luck!
DS
SPY Daily — Structure Holding StrongPrice continues to trade above the 10, 20, 50, and 200 EMAs, with short-term momentum building.
The 10 EMA and 20 EMA are both trending upward, showing continued short-term strength, while the 50 EMA remains flat but stable—acting as a base of support beneath price.
RSI is holding steady around 60, indicating controlled momentum without entering overbought conditions.
On the volume side, OBV has been trending higher since March 30th, suggesting underlying accumulation remains intact.
Overall, structure remains healthy with alignment across trend, momentum, and volume.
⭐️ Final Clarity Note ⭐️:
When price holds above key moving averages with steady RSI and rising OBV, it reflects participation—not just movement. Structure > Emotion.
ETH – RSI Just Flipped Bullish… Déjà Vu?Looking at ETH on the higher timeframe, one thing stands out clearly:
Every time RSI prints a bullish crossover, price follows with a strong rally.
We’ve seen it multiple times before… and now it’s happening again.
RSI has just made a fresh bullish crossover from lower levels.
The question is simple:
Will history repeat itself?
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Bitcoin USD (Daily) — Structure UpdateStructure hasn’t flipped — but it’s no longer deteriorating.
Price remains below the 200 EMA, with the 10, 20, and 50 EMAs still positioned underneath it, keeping the higher timeframe trend unconfirmed.
Within that, behavior is beginning to shift.
The 10 EMA is starting to curl upward, signaling early short-term momentum. BTC has now logged two consecutive daily closes above the 50 EMA, marking a move from weakness into early stabilization.
Momentum aligns with the shift:
• RSI is holding in the high-50s with upward curvature
• ROC is positive (~5.20), slightly cooling but remaining stable
This reflects improving momentum while structure continues to rebuild beneath the 200 EMA.
The key level to monitor is the 50 EMA — holding above it supports continued stabilization, while losing it would signal the structure remains under pressure.
Summary: Structure is stabilizing, not confirmed. Momentum is improving, but the higher timeframe trend has not yet shifted.
4/9/26 - PHAT: new BUY mechanical trading signal4/9/26 - PHAT: new BUY signal chosen by a rules based, mechanical trading system.
PHAT - BUY
Stop Loss @ 10.00
Entry BUY @ 12.64
Target Profit @ 16.85
Analysis:
Higher timeframe: Prices have stayed above the lower channel line of the ATR (Average True Range) Keltner Channel and reversed.
Higher timeframe: Victor Sperandeo's (Trader Vic) classic 1-2-3/2B BUY pattern...where the current lowest bottom breakout price is greater or only slightly peaking lower than the preceding bottom price
DGKCAfter a prolonged downtrend of LLs & LHs, DGKC has finally shown a market structure shift:
✅ Broke previous Lower High (LH)
✅ Strong candle close above resistance
✅ First Higher High (HH) printed
✅ Bullish divergence supporting upside
This signals a potential trend reversal / bullish continuation phase
🎯 Trade Plan
Entry Options:
Ideal: On break of LH (already triggered)
Alternative: Buy at CMP (Current Market Price)
Add positions on pullbacks / retracements
Stop Loss (SL):
Below last Lower Low (LL)
Targets:
🎯 TP1 → 1:1 RR (safe target)
🎯 TP2 → 1:2 RR (extended move)
⚠️ Important Note
This setup is news-sensitive.
If geopolitical stability continues → momentum likely sustained
If tensions rise again → setup can invalidate quickly but stoploss will save you.
Kaspa KAS/USD have now flipped bullish on 4hrly.Kaspa KAS/USD have now flipped bullish on 4hrly, and is now sitting above the red 21 EMA, with a bullish cross of the red 21 EMA now back above the green 50 SMA line; after it had turned bearish on the 23rd March.
The FG histogram had also turned green and has flipped positive as well on the 4hrly.
However for Kaspa to confirm a longer term bullish trend, it will need to break out above the orange 200 SMA line as well; which it had got rejected on the 8thApr.
Euro Edges Higher as Oil Risk LingersEUR/USD rose slightly by midday Thursday amid a pullback in Treasury yields and a stabilization in broader risk sentiment. While the Iran-driven oil shock continues to cast a shadow over global markets, today’s price action reflected a pause in dollar strength rather than a fundamental shift in the macro narrative. For the eurozone, elevated energy prices remain a key concern, given the region’s reliance on imported fuel and the direct pass-through to inflation and growth. With the U.S. maintaining a relatively resilient economic profile but yields easing at the margin, EUR/USD’s move higher reflects a modest rebalancing in rate expectations rather than a decisive shift in policy divergence.
In the above chart, EUR/USD rates have finally cleared the critical inflection point near 1.1600, not just the January 2026 swing low and the uptrend from the August and November 2025 swing lows, but also where the 20- and 50-day EMAs (exponential moving average) have resided for the past month. It’s been previously noted that a move above 1.1600 puts into play a potential short-term bottom (inverse head and shoulders) that could pave the path for a move towards 1.1900. With Slow Stochastics moving into overbought territory and MACD trending higher through its signal line, momentum is now on the bulls’ side. Fundamental risks remain two-sided, and any unwind in risk sentiment could reverse the euro’s gains.






















