Ozempic — Trading Ideas on TradingView

Novo Nordisk selloff an opportunity if markets slump Markets are stretched. Tech and AI have run hot. If sentiment breaks, investors will pivot fast. Novo Nordisk offers safety, scale, and cashflow. But this isn’t a flawless story. Novo’s stock has pulled back. Some of that is market-driven. But part of it is real. Growth expectations were stretched. Wegovy demand is strong, but competition from Eli Lilly is rising. The obesity drug market is now a battleground. Margins will face pressure. There’s also a deeper issue. Novo’s growth beyond GLP‑1 is uncertain. The pipeline is solid, not spectacular. Expansion into areas like NASH and cardiovascular disease will take time. Execution risk is high. Regulators are watching pricing and access. Political pressure could mount, especially in the US. Still, Novo remains a global leader in metabolic health. The company is profitable, disciplined, and forward-looking. Oral versions of its drugs could open up new markets. And its ability to scale production is unmatched. If we see a broad selloff in growth and tech, money will move. Healthcare offers earnings stability. Within healthcare, Novo trades at a more reasonable multiple than peers, with less patent cliff risk. This isn’t a moonshot. It’s a quality business, temporarily mispriced. Risks exist, but they’re known and manageable. Growth won’t be as smooth as before, but it’s still there. And when the market rotates, Novo will be in demand. For traders, this is about timing. For investors, it’s about conviction. Either way, it deserves a place on the radar. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Novo Nordisk (Revised) | NVO | Long at $47.78 **This is a revised analysis from February 5, 2025: I am still in that position, but added significantly more below $50** Novo Nordisk NYSE:NVO is now trading at valuations before its release of Wegovy and Ozempic... From a technical analysis perspective, it's within my "major crash" simple moving average zone (gray lines). When a company's stock price enters this region (especially large and healthy companies) I always grab shares - either for a temporary future bounce or a long-term hold. While currently trading near $47 a share, I think worst case scenario here in 2025 is near $38-$39. Tariffs may cause a recession in the second half of 2025, so no company would be immune. As mentioned above, I am still a holder at $86.74. However, I went in much heavier within my "major crash" simple moving average band and have a final entry planned near $38-$38 (if it drops there). My current cost average is near $55.00. Why do I still have faith in NYSE:NVO ? Because no one else does right now, yet it generated $42 billion in revenue, $14 billion in profits, and has significant cash flow YoY. The company has a massive pipeline, despite Wegovy and Ozempic competition, and I think the market is undervaluing its position in the pharmaceutical industry. Revised Targets in 2028: $60.00 (+25.6%) $70.00 (+46.5%) $80.00 (+67.4%)

Finally a stock I like...this one is a real deal Finally, an investment idea! (after how much doom and gloom?) — Novo Nordisk. You will all be familiar with Ozempic, the Danish company’s flagship product and the reason so many celebrities, influencers, b listers and regular schmegular Americans are suddenly skinny. I ignored the stock for most of ‘23/24, because it was so expensive. I am still a value investor (for my sins) and I just didn’t see a lot of value there — it was priced in. Imagine my surprise as I was thinking about “megatrends” (vom) for the year ahead — AI, data, 'zempy. Novo stock has fallen 37.80% in the last six months. And you know what that means…that’s a real deal! Why is it a real deal? (Don’t you like booze stocks Eden?) Ozempic is not going away. At this point it is synonymous with weight loss as “Uber” is to ridesharing or Google is to search. Note this data per Barclays, from recently issued rx data in the US — Ozempic script issuance has grown +8.4%, while WeGovy slightly trails it at 7.4% — both owned by Novo. While Eli Lilly also makes a GLP, Novo is still the leader. Strong guidance from management on sales — +16% - 24% — roughly implies revenue of $48bn for ‘25 and $57bn for ‘26…that’s a compounder. America and much of the western world has an obesity problem. There is a clear incentive for governments to underwrite the drug because obesity has a clear social + fiscal cost on society — per UoA, the fiscal cost of obesity in NZ is at least $2bn¹. People have an incentive to use Ozempic, because they are vain. This is a nice hedge against the booze stocks I like so much. Benefit from both sides of the trade — buy booze at low teens multiples; buy Novo and benefit from lower drinking rates as there’s several studies that imply ‘Zempy reduces drinking. I don’t want Ozempic, because I like to live the good life. This does not mean the vast majority of people won’t use Ozempic. At the moment, one in eight Americans have used a GLP. That’s +334mn people. 40% of Americans are obsese. There’s a Lollapalooza effect happening here — a bunch of incentives — vain people, governments wanting less obese people, the various side health benefits of GLPs, etc. I like when a lot of incentives are aligned because you’re relying on psychology rather than projecting numbers on an excel spreadsheet. Novo has sold off recently due to a trial of its CagriSema drug missing expectations. Eyes on the prize, though — current GLPs, which still have plenty of market to saturate. Eli Lilly has traded up in recent times, while Novo has traded down. The two tend to trade in lockstep so the disconnect is an opportunity to buy the world’s leading GLP maker at a good price. Eli Lilly is the closest comp, but it trades at a 38x fwd multiple, while Novo trades at 20x — i.e. an almost 50% multiple discount (see chart). I like that too… Note analyst recs on chart also… This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research—sign up for their Substack to receive the latest market insights straight to your inbox.

Novo Nordisk | NVO | Long at $86.74 The Good: NYSE:NVO expects its GLP-1 drugs Wegovy and Ozempic to soon come off the Food and Drug Administration's official shortage list. Just reported better-than-expected net profit in Q4 2024, amid soaring demand for its obesity drugs. Revenues for the Q4 2024 came in at $11.6 billion, up 30% compared to the same quarter in 2023. From a technical analysis perspective, hovering near my historical simple moving average which may lead to a near-term price increase due to positive earnings The Bad: Slower growth in 2025 (16%-24% for 2025 vs 18%-26% in 2024). Chart has been on a major run since 2020 and may be due for further correction. Personally, the positives outweigh the negatives given the obesity drug demand. Thus, at $86.74, NYSE:NVO is in a personal buy zone. Targets: $96.00 $105.00

LLY Eli Lilly Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t bought the 6.20X call: nor the 4.10X gain: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LLY Eli Lilly prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 860usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2024-7-19, for a premium of approximately $9.20. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.