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FED, Certain Rate Cut on September 17We recently provided an analysis on the possible courses of action by the Federal Reserve (FED) starting from Wednesday, September 17, and until the end of the year. Three major figures were still due before the September 17 FED meeting: the NFP report, a PPI, and a CPI. The NFP report has been released and its message is unequivocal, making a 0.25% (25 bps) rate cut by the FED on Wednesday, September 17, almost certain. Even better, the probability of a “jumbo FED cut” has risen to 10%, meaning a 50 bps (0.50%) rate cut. How did we get here? 1) Four consecutive disappointing NFP reports and an unemployment rate near the FED’s alert threshold The U.S. jobs report (NFP), published on Friday, September 5, is weak overall: Unemployment rises to 4.3% of the U.S. labor force, while the FED’s macroeconomic alert threshold is 4.4% In absolute terms, the number of unemployed has reached a record since early 2021 Four consecutive months with fewer than 100,000 net job creations, unseen since the 2020 pandemic crisis As for wage growth, it continues its downward trend, which should eventually allow inflation to decline again (once tariffs are factored in) 2) For the FED, the specter of stagflation looms — the worst macroeconomic scenario for a central bank Will Jerome Powell’s FED and the FOMC be able to lower the federal funds rate starting from Wednesday, September 17? The answer is yes. The accelerating deterioration of the U.S. labor market significantly raises the probability of a U.S. recession. The upcoming rate cut by the FED could even be considered too late, since rising unemployment generally signals that the economy has already been slowing sharply for many months. U.S. core inflation remains around 3% due to tariffs, but the state of employment makes a more neutral federal funds rate necessary. Hence, the probability of FED action on September 17 is close to 100%. 3) This week, PPI and CPI inflation are the dominant fundamentals In conclusion, the probability of FED action could still evolve this week with the updates of U.S. inflation via PPI and CPI. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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FRED:FEDFUNDS
by Swissquote
Why Altcoins Are Weak in This Bull Run?The crypto market is in a bull run, but something feels different this time. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are setting new highs, many altcoins are struggling to keep up. In previous cycles, altcoins often outperformed once Bitcoin found stability — but this round looks weaker. Here are a few reasons why altcoins are underperforming: ✅ Bitcoin Dominance Is Rising Capital flows in crypto follow a cycle. Early bull phases usually start with Bitcoin, as institutions and large investors prefer its liquidity and reputation as a "safer" crypto asset. Bitcoin dominance has been climbing, signaling that capital is consolidating into BTC instead of spreading into smaller, riskier altcoins. ✅ Liquidity Is Thinner Across the Market Unlike previous cycles, global liquidity conditions are tighter. With interest rates higher and risk appetite lower, speculative capital isn’t flooding into altcoins at the same pace. Most investors would rather deploy into BTC or ETH than gamble on small-cap tokens with uncertain narratives. ✅ Regulation & Exchange Listings Matter More This cycle is also shaped by increased regulatory scrutiny. Many altcoins face delisting risks or uncertainty around whether they qualify as securities. This discourages both retail and institutional investors from rotating heavily into alts. ✅ Narratives Are Narrower In past cycles, new sectors (DeFi in 2020, Metaverse in 2021) created explosive altcoin rallies. This time, the strongest narratives are Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum staking. Without a fresh, sector-wide altcoin narrative, capital rotation is limited to a few selective themes like AI coins or Real-World Assets (RWA), rather than lifting the entire alt market. ✅ Market Maturity & Survivorship Bias The crypto market has matured. Many speculative altcoins from past cycles have faded or collapsed. Survivors now trade more in line with fundamentals and adoption, meaning the era of every token pumping in unison is over. Conclusion Altcoins are weaker in this bull run because the cycle is more institutional, more selective, and more Bitcoin-focused. That doesn’t mean altcoins won’t have their moment, but traders should be more careful this time. Instead of chasing every low-cap token, focus on strong narratives, liquidity, and projects with real adoption. Altseason may come, but it won’t look like the ones of the past. Cheers Hexa BINANCE:BTCUSDT BINANCE:ETHUSDT CRYPTOCAP:BTC CRYPTOCAP:ETH CRYPTOCAP:XRP CRYPTOCAP:BNB
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3ES
by HexaTrades
MARKETS week ahead: September 8 – 14Last week in the news The previous week was marked with surprisingly low August Non-farm payrolls of only 22K new jobs in the U.S. Figures increased market expectations that the Fed will cut rates at the FOMC meeting in September. Market reaction at Friday's trading session was strong. The S&P 500 reached another all time highest level and then tumbled back toward the 6.481, within the same day. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark dropped down from 4,2% to 4,0%. Although the US Dollar remained relatively flat during the week, the price of gold reached a new all time highest level, ending the week at $3.586. This week the crypto market was left aside, with BTC closing the week by testing the $110K. U.S. labour market data took centre stage in the markets last week. On Wednesday, the JOLTs Job Openings report showed 7.181 million positions for July, falling short of the expected 7.3 million. Friday delivered another surprise, with August Non-Farm Payrolls revealing just 22K new jobs, which was well below the 75K anticipated by the market. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% in August, marking a 3.7% y/y increase. A significant drop in the US jobs data increased market expectations that the Fed will now certainly have a good grounds to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at September FOMC meeting. Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz cautions that bond markets haven’t fully accounted for the weakening U.S. fiscal outlook, particularly the temporary boost from tariff revenues that won't last as businesses readjust supply chains. He suggests that the current projections are overly optimistic and that the true financial position of the U.S. may be significantly worse. Stiglitz’s remarks signal that investors should brace for deeper fiscal and inflationary risks than markets currently anticipate There has been a lot of media coverage related to the announced split of shares of Kraft Hainz, aimed to unlock brand value. Shares of the company were losing value during the year, with a stock loss of around 21% over the period of the past year. Famous investor Warren Buffett commented on the split, expressing disappointment, noting that breaking up will not resolve the deeper challenges the company is facing. The proposed spin-off will create two distinct, independently traded entities, one centered on sauces and spreads, the other on grocery staples, a strategy aimed at unlocking shareholder value after years of sluggish performance. The European Commission has levied a €2.95 B (US $3.45 B) antitrust fine against Google for abusing its dominance in the adtech market by favouring its own services, marking the company’s fourth major EU penalty. Regulators have given Google 60 days to propose remedies to end these self-preferencing practices, warning that failure to comply could lead to divestitures. Google has announced plans to appeal the decision, calling it unjustified and warning it could harm numerous European businesses. Meanwhile, the U.S. President has criticized the penalty and threatened retaliatory trade measures, escalating tensions between the U.S. and the EU. CRYPTO MARKET The crypto market remained relatively calm during the previous week. Investors were more concerned with surprisingly weak US jobs data, increasing expectations that the Fed might make a move in rate cuts at their September FOMC meeting. They were positioning accordingly, in which sense US equities, bond and gold markets were affected. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by modest 1% during the week, adding $28B to its total market cap. Daily trading volumes dropped to the level of $222B on a daily basis, from last week's $311B. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +16%, with a total funds inflow of $513B. For the week, crypto coins showed mixed performance, with a blend of gains and losses across major and altcoins. BTC had steady movements, with a weekly gain of 1,4% and an inflow of $30,5B. This week, ETH was a modest losing side of -1,4% (-7,5B). Major altcoins on the market finished the week relatively flat. Market favorites Solana, ADA, XRP, BNB all finished the week almost without a change from the end of the previous week. Avalanche managed to add 3,3% to its market value. At the same time, Maker had an excellent week with a gain of 13,1%. Monero was traded higher by 4,4% and Filecoin was up by 2,7%. Another coin with a significant weekly gain was ZCash, with a surge of 11,3%. Although the value of coins remained relatively flat, there has been increased activity with circulating coins. This week Stellar managed to add 1,1% new coins to the market. Miota`s number of coins closed the week higher by 0,8%. This week Filecoins added 0,2% to its total circulating coins. XRP should be also mentioned, as this coin continues to increase its number on the market, this week by 0,2%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market showed some divergence from BTC and ETH price movements, following developments on the spot market. Bitcoin futures experienced consistent gains across all maturities, with w/w increases ranging around 2,7%. Futures with maturity in December this year closed the week at $114.205, and those maturing a year later were last traded at $121.000. In contrast, ETH futures saw moderate declines across the board, with w/w changes around 0,4%. For the moment, the market is showing subdued expectations for ETH in the near to mid-term. However, ETH futures continue to hold strongly above the $4K mark. December 2025 finished the week at $4.435, while December 2026 was last traded at $4.780.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
The Death Cross That Could Ignite Altcoins !Hello Traders 🐺 As you might already remember, I’ve been talking about the Altcoin Season 2025 since the last Black Monday when ETH was around $1400! I’ve constantly said that we’re about to see a major pump in the altcoin section. But what are my price targets now? Do I still believe we’re heading higher for ETH and other altcoins, or are we at the beginning of the end? Let’s break it down 👇 When I pulled up the BTC.D chart, I realized something mind-blowing. On the weekly chart, after breaking the ascending channel that lasted for at least 4 consecutive years (yes, 4 years!), this is — in my humble opinion — a crazy move for BTC.D and especially altcoins. Still, many think this is just “normal” market movement… but let’s be honest with ourselves. If you look back at the last Altcoin Season, you’ll see that when price reached the descending resistance and broke below a major support (just like now), we also had a Death Cross — a massive warning sign for anyone bearish on altcoins. Now we have the exact same setup: BTC.D broke below the channel support. A death cross is forming. The Fed is about to shift monetary policy — most likely with a rate cut this month since the risk of recession is now much higher than inflation risk. Jobless claims are surging like never before since 2021 — which, by accident, was the exact time when the Fed started cutting rates before the previous Altcoin Season. 📉 Targets: If you zoom in on the chart, you’ll see BTC.D needs to break below the previous low — and then it can drop even further toward the 49% area, a major support zone. This could be the trigger for the real altcoin season of 2025. I hope you enjoy this idea, and as always, remember our golden rule: 🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable 🐺 🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by Kiu_Coin
XAUUSD – Weekly Plan: Bullish Bias with Key Levels Ahead MMFLOW TRADING PLAN XAUUSD Market View: Gold (XAUUSD) is moving exactly as projected in our weekly plan. After Nonfarm pushed price close to $3600/oz ATH, gold has been consolidating around the 357x–358x zone while holding the ascending trendline. Both the Daily and Weekly charts remain strongly bullish, showing no signs of profit-taking. This confirms that buyers are still in control, and the upside bias remains intact. 👉 However, with key US data (Core PPI, CPI, Jobless Claims, UoM Sentiment) coming up this week, short-term volatility is expected. Traders should watch closely how gold reacts around critical support and resistance zones. Technical Outlook (H1 Chart): Price is consolidating sideways, respecting the bullish structure. Holding above 3574–3550 keeps the bullish momentum alive, targeting higher liquidity zones at 3620–3640+. A break below 3530 could trigger a deeper pullback before buyers step back in. Trading Plan: 🔵 BUY ZONE: 3552 – 3550 SL: 3544 TP: 3556 → 3560 → 3565 → 3570 → 3575 → 3580 → ???? 🔵 BUY SCALP: 3573 – 3571 SL: 3567 TP: 3578 → 3582 → 3586 → 3590 → ???? 🔴 SELL SCALP: 3598 – 3600 SL: 3604 TP: 3595 → 3590 → 3585 → 3580 → 3570 → 3560 → ???? 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3631 – 3633 SL: 3638 TP: 3626 → 3622 → 3618 → 3614 → 3610 → 3600 → ???? Summary: ✅ Gold is respecting the bullish outlook from our weekly plan. 👉 Key levels to watch: 3592 (bullish trigger) and 3575 (bearish trigger). As long as price holds above 3550, the bias remains to the upside. Follow MMFLOW TRADING for daily updates and execution setups.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
GOLD hits $3,600 target, market focuses on CPIOANDA:XAUUSD continued to surge, hitting a record high of $3,600/ounce on Friday, following unusually weak U.S. non-farm payrolls data. The market now believes there is a 10% chance the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, leaving investors wary of the risk of a significant rate cut at this meeting. The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September According to the CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 0, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 88.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 11.7% (the probability was 0 before the release of non-farm payrolls data). OANDA:XAUUSD is currently hitting new highs as bulls see a significant slowdown in employment as a sign of more rate cuts. The outlook for gold remains bullish as employment concerns continue to outweigh inflation in the short to medium term. OANDA:XAUUSD is up 37% this year, driven largely by a weaker dollar, central bank buying, dovish monetary policy and rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Gold itself does not generate interest, but it does well in low- or high-uncertainty environments, making it a safe haven for investors’ money. The outlook for gold is positive as the Federal Reserve’s independence is under threat following Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Tim Cook, weakening the dollar and boosting investor appetite for the precious metal. Gold traders are focused on next week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. If inflation continues to decline, that would strengthen the case for a rate cut at the September 16-17 meeting. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD First, gold has achieved the $3,600 price target and a new all-time high. Currently, the technical conditions and technical positions are all bullish, with a short-term directional bullish channel and major support from the EMA21. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not provided any signals of a possible correction in momentum, even though it has been operating in the overbought zone (80 to 100) for some time. In the short term, gold may retest the all-time high, then target around $3,613 in the short term, which is the price point of the 0.382% Fibonacci extension. And the nearest support is noted at $3,574, which is the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci extension. As long as gold remains above $3,550, it is not in a position to correct lower, and any dips due to profit-taking should be considered as a short-term move rather than a trend. Finally, the overall trend of gold is bullish, and the notable points will also be listed as follows. Support: $3,574 – $3,550 Resistance: $3,600 – $3,613 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3607 - 3605⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3611 →Take Profit 1 3599 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3593 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3548 - 3550⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3544 →Take Profit 1 3556 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3562
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
XAU/USD Trading ChartA screenshot of a TradingView chart displaying the XAU/USD (Gold vs. U.S. Dollar) trading pair on a 15-minute timeframe. The chart shows recent price movements with candlestick patterns, including a highlighted support level around 3,670.00 and resistance levels around 3,680.00. The timestamp indicates the data is from 09:46 on Tuesday, September 08, 2025, with the last update at 16:11:09 UTC. Additional details include trading indicators and a note about a potential ideal entry or resistance breakdown.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Gold_wall_streets
XAUUSDGold remains in a strong uptrend. Last Friday, the release of the non-farm payrolls figures, which were lower than expected, and a weaker dollar, pushed gold prices higher, reaching an all-time high of $3,600. Gold Direction: On Monday, as the gold price is currently facing no resistance, it appears to be trading very high. The RSI indicator is in the "overbought" zone, which could lead to short-term selling pressure. Main scenario: At the price zone of 3599$-3613$, if the gold price cannot break above the level of 3613$, there is a possibility of a short-term price drop, consider selling the red zone. (Very Risky Trade) 🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you. >>GooD Luck 😊 ❤️ Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by Serana2324
ETHUSD BUYS TODAY GOOD PROFITS ✅ ETHUSD Buy Recap – Profitable Moves Today - Entry Zone: 4280–4300 - Current Price: ~4320+ - Profit Potential: +20 to +40 points depending on exit - Momentum Drivers: - MACD and RSI showing bullish continuation - Volume spike confirming buyer strength - Price holding above key moving averages (MA10, MA50, MA100) 📊 Technical Summary: - Moving Averages: Strong Buy - Indicators: Mostly Buy with some overbought signals - Trend: Short-term bullish, with potential resistance near 4345–4360 If you caught the buy near 4287 or 4300, you’re riding a clean wave.
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by TradingHub_FX_crypto
Gold price analysis on September 8✍️ Gold Analysis Gold price is currently reacting around the 3600 round mark. The main strategy is still to wait for corrections to the support zone to find BUY opportunities. Up to now, there is no signal from the daily candle showing that the selling force wants to take profits strongly, so the priority trend is still to buy when the price holds above important levels. In particular, breaking the support of 3514 will be a signal to further strengthen the uptrend. 📌 Important price zones BUY: when the price reacts at the support zone of 3575–3560. Upward target: 3600 in the immediate future, 3650 further. SELL: when the price breaks the trendline and support of 3360. Downward target: 3514.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader