Community ideas
USOIL — More Upside AheadLocally, the market is in Wave 4 , and we are expecting Wave 5 and further upside movement.
The red line at the 54 price level is located within the 50–60% retracement range of the larger move.
Theoretically, this could mark the beginning of a larger Wave B , a corrective move to the upside.
However, there is still limited confirmation for this scenario.
Key targets:
69
71
The potential move from the current level is 12–16%.
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GBPJPY SELL WITH LIMIT ORDER!!GBPJPY made a bearish pattern on a min time frame for a sell trend continuation am looking for a pull back into VAH which will be my sell zone then sell and hold till 208.930 target is completed....
NQ ShortsNQ Shorts on the table, Decent start to the week - although I do believe this was a relief from lasts weeks bear move.
Previous days high taken from last week, Asia high swept, price showing weakness to the downside. Would not be taken longs after this retracement will need to see how price plays out - Loads of major news this week so will be cautious of any choppy play.
Trade Safe!
AUDUSD (Buy)The buy opportunity is more set not price should start going up after new trading day, patience makes the difference if you know the direction you can still be unprofitable without patience and having the right timing it requires discipline which is more valuable than temporary profit.
$GME Cycle Swap BULLISHPrice previously made strong impulsive moves off long-term support and is now consolidating without breaking structure. If this resolves upward, the first reaction area is around 27.50, followed by 32 and then 40 based on prior resistance, with a higher-risk extension toward 55 if momentum expands. There’s no set timeline, but any move would likely develop over the coming weeks and is fully dependent on price holding current support. This is not financial advice.
I like the stock. Ryan likes the stock. Burry likes the stock. Directors like the stock. Kitty's brother likes the stock. Twitter likes the stock. I like the stock. I hope all of you like the stock :).
Symbol: GME
Average Price: $23.09
Mark / Last: $22.96
Quantity: 333.929348
Market Value: $7,667.02 I am but a simple man. I do not have a lot of money. But that's why we are all here for future growth. I will keep adding to the stock. Good stock if you ask me. Near the bottom is a great place to add. NFA
Wait for the Setup !The market going up and down is the market’s duty.
Our duty is to wait for the market to come to our strategy.
If it comes, we take the trade.
If not, we stay calm, observe, and refine our knowledge.
GOLD RALLY OR TRAP?This Bounce Looks Like Distribution, Not a Reversal
Gold is bouncing — but context matters.
After a strong selloff, price is now retracing into a key resistance zone, not breaking structure. This is where many traders get trapped chasing a “bottom” while smart money distributes.
Market Structure
Clear downtrend: Lower Highs & Lower Lows remain intact
Current move = retracement, not impulsive bullish continuation
Price is reacting below the descending trendline
Key Technical Zone
FVG / Supply zone around 5,26x → high-probability reaction area
This zone aligns with retracement levels and prior imbalance
If–Then Scenarios
If price rejects 5,26x:
→ Downtrend continuation toward 4,63x → 4,51x → 4,40x
If price breaks and holds above 5,26x (H1 close):
→ Bearish bias weakens, wait for new structure before trading
Trading Mindset
This is distribution after a selloff, not accumulation.
Don’t confuse a bounce with a trend change.
📌 Strong trends don’t reverse quietly — they test patience first.
XRP time for a recovery rally?4hr looks like this local bottom is in. Would like to see this channel broken to the upside.
Rest in piecesUnfortunately, I was recently banned by tradingview for posting bearish minds, they told me to stop spreading FUD...so this might be my last call. Enjoy.
Looks like we are headed down there, once we test that MA I expect very strong bounce. Very. This will play out over the next week. The wick is getting filled.
Originally I expected us to make a fake out over 2.10$ first but the bulls can't get it up. Bitcoin is looking at 70k.
Wave guy, where is your wave 5 to 2.80? You can only count to 4 huh? Well this is it for me, I am probably getting banned permanently for this post, there is also a group of people who is reporting every post I make so...
Just remember, we are in the bear market right now. So when we pump hard, do not start dreaming, stick to the fibs, confluences and resistances. Pay attention to moving averages and have patience. Good luck!
XAUUSD Calm Before the Storm High-Probability Buy SetupPEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
Strong Impulsive Move (Trend Confirmation)
Gold first made a sharp bullish impulse (strong green candles).
This shows institutional buying strength, not retail noise.
When price moves fast like this, market usually does not reverse immediately.
2️⃣ Bullish Flag Formation (Continuation Pattern)
After the impulse, price moved into a small downward/sideways channel → this is a bullish flag.
A bullish flag means:
Sellers are weak
Buyers are absorbing sell orders
This is a pause, not a reversal.
3️⃣ Breakout + Retest = High Probability Entry
Price broke out of the flag/channel.
Trader waits for pullback into the flag zone (Entry 4922–4918).
This is called a break–retest–continue setup → very high probability.
4️⃣ Stop Loss Placement (Smart Risk Control)
Stop Loss: 4900
SL is below:
Flag structure
Recent higher low
If price breaks this level, setup is invalid, so exit is logical.
5️⃣ Target Logic (Measured Move)
Target 1: 4945
Extended Target: 4965
Targets are based on:
Height of the previous impulse
Liquidity resting above highs
Markets often expand after consolidation, not before.
🧠 Trader’s Bias Summary
Bias: Bullish
Reason: Strong impulse → bullish flag → breakout confirmation
Entry: 4922–4918
Stop Loss: 4900
Target: 4945 → 4965
Bitcoin Is Not Bouncing — It’s Sliding Inside a Bearish ChannelBitcoin remains firmly trapped inside a well-defined descending channel, and the structure is doing exactly what a controlled bearish market is supposed to do: lower highs, lower lows, and weak corrective bounces.
From a price structure standpoint, the recent sell-off was impulsive, breaking multiple short-term supports and accelerating price into the lower half of the channel. The bounce we are seeing now is purely corrective, capped below the descending channel resistance and the dynamic EMA, which is acting as active supply, not support.
The orange projection highlights the most probable path:
- A weak relief rally toward channel mid / EMA resistance
- Followed by continuation lower, targeting the next liquidity pocket
The highlighted horizontal zone around 74,500–75,000 is not strong demand, it is a reaction zone, already tested and partially consumed. Once price revisits this area again, the probability favors acceptance below, opening the door toward the next major liquidity magnet near 71,900.
Trend & Momentum Context:
Trend bias: Bearish (lower timeframe)
Market behavior: Controlled distribution, not capitulation
No structural sign of accumulation (no base, no absorption, no higher low)
Macro & Liquidity Logic:
Risk assets are currently repricing under tighter financial conditions and reduced speculative appetite. Until Bitcoin reclaims the upper boundary of the descending channel with acceptance, any bounce should be treated as sell-side liquidity, not trend reversal.
Key Takeaway:
This is not a dip to buy blindly. As long as Bitcoin remains inside this descending channel, rallies are reactions, and continuation risk points lower. The market is leaking liquidity patiently, structurally, and without panic.
SPY CONSTRUCTIVE BEAR THESIS | FEB 2026SPY CONSTRUCTIVE BEAR THESIS | FEB 2026
STRUCTURE:
Price tagged 1.0 Fib extension (697.84) — full retracement of the 2024-2025 impulse. CHoCH signals clustering at highs within Premium zone per SMC framework. Classic distribution characteristics forming.
TARGET ZONE: 627-631 (0.702 Fib / Equilibrium)
This represents ~9.5% drawdown from current levels — in line with historical mean-reversion when price reaches full extension at macro exhaustion.
MACRO CONFLUENCE:
- Equity risk premium at 0.02% — investors accept equity vol with zero compensation
- CAPE ratio 40.74 (2nd highest on record)
- Fed on indefinite hold (3.5-3.75%) with tariff-driven inflation still sticky at 2.7%
- Fed chair transition May 2026 creates policy vacuum
- Supreme Court IEEPA ruling could invalidate 61% of tariff revenue legally
INVALIDATION: Daily close above 705 with volume expansion.
TRADE THESIS: Premium zone exhaustion + macro headwinds = asymmetric R/R favoring mean reversion to equilibrium. Not calling a crash — calling a healthy correction to reset valuations before any sustainable continuation.
Risk management: This is a pullback thesis, not a regime change call. Scale in, don't size heavy.
#SPY #SmartMoneyConcepts #TechnicalAnalysis #MacroView
GBP/AUD Market Analysis: Macro + Structure [MaB]1. The Macro Context (The "Why") 🌍
Hi traders! Before looking at the candles, let's look at the money.
My fundamental scoring table speaks clearly: there is a -4 differential, indicating a Bearish (Moderate) bias that we cannot ignore.
Key Factor Analysis:
🏦 Current Rates: Explanation: BoE at 3.75% offers an attractive carry level, while RBA at 3.6% remains the second highest in the G7. Score GBP: +1 Score AUD: +1
🌍 Economic Regime: Explanation: GBP is in a Goldilocks expansion phase; AUD is facing reflation with accelerating inflation. Score GBP: +1 Score AUD: +2
📊 Rate Expectations: Explanation: BoE is dovish with an easing trend (25bp cut in Dec); RBA remains neutral with a stable holding trend. Score GBP: -1 Score AUD: 0
🎈 Inflation: Explanation: Both currencies face high inflation above target, maintaining hawkish pressure on their respective central banks. Score GBP: +1 Score AUD: +1
📈 Growth/GDP: Explanation: Both economies show growth (GBP 1.3%, AUD 2.3%) that appears unsustainable given high inflation levels. Score GBP: 0 Score AUD: 0
⚖️ Risk Sentiment: Explanation: Market sentiment is currently in a neutral regime with no specific bias for either currency. Score GBP: 0 Score AUD: 0
🏛️ COT Score: Explanation: Commitment of Traders shows a bearish build-up for GBP, while AUD sees strong longs and accelerating purchases. Score GBP: -1 Score AUD: +2
🗞️ News Bonus: Explanation: GBP saw a strong acceleration in the services sector (PMI +2.9 to 54.3); no significant surprises for AUD. Score GBP: +1 Score AUD: 0
Currency Score Summary: Total Score GBP: +2 (Neutral/Bullish) Total Score AUD: +6 (Strong Bullish)
Synthesis: GBP (Weak, Score +2): High rates but dovish BoE in an easing cycle with heavy speculative selling. AUD (Strong, Score +6): Solid growth and very strong speculative accumulation in progress.
Conclusion: With this scenario, we are only looking for Short setups. Going against this bias would be statistical suicide.
2. The Technical Setup (The "Where") 📉
Timeframe: 1h | Pair: GBP/AUD
The SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator gave us the confirmation we needed for our statistical edge. Here is where the indicator makes the difference. Look at the dashboard on the right, numbers don't lie:
🚀 Continuation Rate (64.7%): We are well above the 60% threshold. This tells us the market is in a healthy, directional trend. Statistically, betting on continuation pays off more than looking for a reversal.
🔥 Streak (1) & Streak Pct (2%): We are at the 1st consecutive impulse. It's a fresh trend, so we have plenty of room for the move to develop before it becomes overextended.
🔄 Retest (84.5%): The indicator tells us that statistically, when price creates a new Break of Structure (BOS), it retraces into the previous zone 84.5% of the time. This gives us high confidence in our entry zone.
💥 BOS/Ret Rate (59.8%): This parameter tells us that once price retraces inside the previous zone, it has a high probability of reacting and creating a new BOS.
🎯 Extension Rate (1.65x): The algorithm projects an ambitious target. We expect this move to extend 1.65 times the current pullback leg. That's where we'll take profit.
3. Execution Plan on Chart
Moving to the chart, the SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator supports us in pinpointing liquidity to define entry and stop loss:
Entry and Stop Loss: We place a limit entry in the Supply Zone 1h (Red Band) and the stop loss a few pips above the zone.
Take Profit: We leverage the asset's statistical analysis offered by the Extension Rate and place the target by measuring with Fibonacci at 1.65x relative to the pullback leg.
Trade Parameters:
Entry Price: 1.96654 Stop Loss: 1.97083 Take Profit: 1.93428
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a proprietary algorithm and is shared exclusively for educational and didactic purposes. It does not constitute financial advice or investment solicitation in any way. Trading involves significant risk.
NAS100 (US100) | Short Idea at Key Resistance📉 Bias: Bearish (conditional)
Timeframe: Daily
Instrument: NAS100 / US100 CFD
🧠 Market Structure Overview
The NAS100 has been in a strong uptrend since 2024, rallying from ~18,000 to above 25,000. However, price is now stalling at the top of a rising wedge, a pattern that often signals loss of momentum.
- Price is currently trading near 25,200, a level that has already rejected price twice:
- First rejection: Nov–Dec 2025
- Second rejection: Jan–Feb 2026 (current)
This creates a potential double top at resistance.
📊 What the Chart Is Showing
- Rising wedge near the highs → momentum is slowing
- Price rejected twice at 25,200 → sellers defending this area
- Low volume above 25,200 → little demand if price breaks lower
- Price stretched far above key averages → vulnerable to a pullback
Volume profile shows the largest accumulation zone around 24,000, meaning price is currently trading at a premium.
🎯 Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
- 25,200 – 25,400 → major rejection zone
Support:
- 24,700 → wedge support (key trigger level)
- 24,000 → major volume area / dynamic support
- 23,850 → volume shelf
- 22,400 → major higher-timeframe support (potential correction target)
📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary Idea)
Thesis:
- If price fails to break and hold above 25,200, a breakdown from the rising wedge becomes likely.
Confirmation:
- Daily close below 24,700
- Momentum indicators rolling over
- Increased selling volume
Targets:
- 24,000 (first support / partial profit)
- 23,850
- 22,400 (larger correction zone)
This would represent roughly a 10–11% pullback, which is normal after extended rallies.
📈 Bullish Invalidation
This short idea is invalid if:
- Price breaks and holds above 25,200 with strong volume
- Momentum expands upward instead of rolling over
In that case, continuation toward 26,500–27,000 becomes likely.
🌍 Macro Context (Why This Matters)
Beyond the chart, the macro backdrop is starting to lean less supportive for growth-heavy indices like the NAS100:
- Economic momentum is slowing: Recent manufacturing data remains below 50, signaling contraction rather than expansion.
Liquidity expectations are fading:
- The market is adjusting to a scenario where central banks are not rushing to cut rates, reducing the liquidity tailwind that tech stocks typically rely on.
US dollar stabilizing:
- A firmer USD acts as a headwind for large-cap tech earnings and global risk appetite.
Risk appetite showing cracks:
- Volatility is creeping higher and leadership is narrowing, often seen before broader pullbacks.
Rotation signals:
- Capital has been favoring defensives and real assets at the margin, while high-beta growth is losing relative strength.
📌 Summary
The NAS100 is trading near the top of a rising wedge after a strong multi-month rally, with price repeatedly failing around the 25,200 resistance zone. This area has now rejected price twice, suggesting buyers may be losing momentum.
From a broader perspective, macro conditions are becoming less supportive for high-growth tech. Economic data points to slowing momentum, expectations for rapid rate cuts are fading, and the US dollar is stabilizing, all of which reduce the liquidity tailwind that previously pushed tech higher.
With price sitting in a low-volume premium area and momentum flattening, the risk/reward increasingly favors a pullback or deeper correction rather than chasing upside. A break below wedge support would likely trigger rotation out of risk and open the door toward lower, high-volume support zones.
Bullish continuation remains possible, but would require a clean breakout above resistance with strong volume and improving macro sentiment. Until then, this area looks more like distribution than accumulation.
Detailed analysis for GOLD & SILVER : 2nd Feb 2026All the levels for buy/sell strategy has been clearly explained in this video so watch it till the end.
Silver: Still not on the bullish front. Careful with resistance levels.
Gold: It has been taking 2025 high as support. Other levels are also mentioned.
TSLA – Key Levels Matter More Than Bias (Feb 2)1H Timeframe – Bigger Picture
On the 1H chart, TSLA is no longer trending cleanly. Price pushed hard, then stalled and started rolling over. The structure shifted from impulse to distribution, and now it’s compressing between clear supply above and demand below.
The upper zone around 435–440 is still heavy. Every push into that area has been rejected quickly, which tells me sellers are active and not letting price expand higher. Below, 417–420 remains the most important support. That level has absorbed selling pressure multiple times and is the line that separates “pullback” from “trend failure.”
As long as TSLA stays between these two zones, it’s range behavior, not a trend.
15m Timeframe – Execution View
On the 15m, momentum faded after the last bounce. Price is holding just under VWAP/EMA and struggling to reclaim them with volume. That usually means buyers are defensive, not aggressive.
Short-term structure shows lower highs forming beneath resistance. If TSLA can’t reclaim 430–432 with acceptance, upside is limited and pops are likely to fade. On the downside, a clean loss of 417 opens the door for acceleration toward 410–405, where stronger demand should show up again.
This is not a “chase” environment. It’s a react-to-levels environment.
GEX Context – Why Levels Matter
GEX is doing a lot of the explaining here.
There’s a clear call wall around 435–440, which lines up perfectly with the rejection zone on price. That area acts like a ceiling unless dealers are forced to unwind.
Below price, put support sits around 415–417. That explains why dips are slowing down instead of flushing immediately. Until one of those zones breaks, TSLA is magnetized between them.
This supports a range-to-breakout setup, not a directional bet.
Trade Ideas (Simple and Practical)
Bullish idea:
If TSLA holds above 417 and reclaims 430+ with volume, that opens a push back toward 435–440. Calls only make sense after acceptance above VWAP/EMA, not before.
Bearish idea:
If TSLA fails again near 430–432 or loses 417 cleanly, downside continuation toward 410–405 becomes likely. Puts work better on rejection or breakdown, not mid-range.
If price stays stuck between 420–430, best trade is patience.
Bottom Line
TSLA is not trending right now. It’s boxed between strong GEX levels. Let price come to you. React at the edges, not the middle.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage risk and make your own trading decisions.
Silver on Sight BUYthis is a rough slop after the big squeez of the market , for the next coulple of months we will see a moderate bull market , after the irational run over richness we can consider a high value of commodities , we will try to play it safe afterxards n silver is showing momentum
Bitcoin's relief rally vs weekly —Bear market bottom July 2026?Bitcoin is about to close the weekly timeframe. A close below $80,600, the mid-November 2025 low, would be extremely bearish and signal additional bearish action. The close is happening today in just 12 hours.
The current relief rally lasted 56 days, 8 bars. The previous relief rally in 2022 lasted 63 days, 9 bars.
If we were to count the current relief rally ending last week, then we have exactly 63 days on both rallies.
Just as Bitcoin had support from a June 2021 low in 2022, it also has support now from a low in April 2025. Regardless of support, it moved straight down.
If Bitcoin were to move straight down, the bear market bottom can easily come up in July rather than October 2026. This would be a desirable development.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
BTCUSD – 1H Technical, Supply–Demand & Market LogicBitcoin is still trading inside a clean, well respected descending channel, and nothing in the current price action suggests trend exhaustion. What looks like a bounce is structurally a corrective pullback into supply, not the start of a new bullish leg.
Technical Structure
- Trend: Clearly bearish consistent lower highs and lower lows
- Channel: Price is reacting perfectly to the upper and lower boundaries of the descending channel
- EMA (dynamic resistance): Every rally into the EMA has been rejected, confirming sellers remain in control
The recent move from the demand zone near 74,800–75,200 is a technical reaction, not accumulation. That demand has already been tested and partially consumed. Price is now pushing back into a supply zone around 78,500–79,500, aligned with:
- Channel resistance
- EMA resistance
- Prior breakdown structure
This confluence makes the area high-probability sell-side liquidity.
Supply–Demand & Liquidity
- The green demand zone below has weak hands, not strong absorption
- The current upside move is best interpreted as stop-hunting and short-term relief
- The dotted projection shows the classic bearish path:
bounce → rejection → continuation lower
If price fails to reclaim and hold above the supply zone, the next move favors a breakdown through the demand zone, opening the path toward the major liquidity target near 71,900.
Macro Context
Risk assets remain under pressure as:
- Financial conditions stay tight
- Volatility picks up
- Speculative positioning continues to unwind
In this environment, Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset in distribution, not a safe haven.
Key Takeaway
As long as BTC remains inside this descending channel, every rally should be treated as a selling opportunity, not a breakout. A real trend shift requires acceptance above channel resistance until then, downside continuation remains the dominant scenario.
This is not panic selling / This is controlled markdown.
SILVER at Resistance — Liquidity Trap or Breakout to 97.79?
Silver is approaching a key resistance zone after a steady bullish climb, but price is now entering a decision area where reactions matter more than predictions.
🔍 Market Structure:
• Rising move into resistance = potential liquidity sweep
• Trendline liquidity building below price
• Market sitting between breakout continuation and rejection
📉 Primary Scenario (Rejection):
If resistance holds (84.46 – 87.97), I expect a sell reaction targeting the liquidity pool below → potential move toward 74.00 support.
📈 Alternative Scenario (Breakout):
If price breaks and accepts above resistance, bearish bias becomes invalid and continuation toward the next resistance near 97.79 becomes likely.
No guessing tops.
No emotional bias.
Only reaction → confirmation → execution.
👉 Like if you trade liquidity, not hype
👉 Comment your bias on Silver here
👉 Follow for structured, clean metals analysis
Q1 | D3 | W5 | Y26 EURGBP — FRGNT DAILY FORECAST📅 Q1 | D3 | W5 | Y26
📊 EURGBP — FRGNT DAILY FORECAST
🔍 Analysis Approach
I’m applying a developed version of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured focus on:
• Identifying Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
• Using those POIs to define a clear and controlled trading range 📐
• Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
• Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) as confirmation ✅
This process keeps me precise, disciplined, and aligned with market narrative, rather than reacting emotionally or chasing price.
💡 My Motto
“Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge.”
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, combined with a high-probability execution model, is the backbone of any sustainable trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ On Losses
Losses are part of the mathematical reality of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they are necessary, expected, and managed.
We acknowledge them, learn, and move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Further context and supporting material can be found in the Links section.
Stay sharp 🧠
Stay consistent 🎯
Protect your capital 🔐
— FRGNT 🚀📈
FX:EURGBP
ETHUSD Liquidity Sweep at Key Demand ZoneGold (XAUUSD) recently experienced a sharp bearish impulse, breaking down from an ascending channel and aggressively sweeping liquidity below multiple support zones. The impulsive sell-off indicates strong institutional participation, likely driven by stop-hunt behavior and higher-timeframe profit booking.
After the breakdown, price entered a discount zone near a major higher-timeframe demand, where selling pressure has started to slow down. The presence of long lower wicks and reduced bearish momentum suggests seller exhaustion and the potential formation of a short-term base.
Currently, XAUUSD is consolidating below a key supply / mitigation zone, which aligns with previous intraday resistance. If price holds above the lower demand area and successfully reclaims the marked imbalance zone, a mean-reversion move toward the next liquidity pool becomes highly probable.
The projected path indicates a corrective bullish structure, targeting the prior internal range highs and unfilled fair value gaps. However, failure to hold the demand zone could expose gold to another liquidity run toward deeper support.
Market Bias:
Short-term: Neutral → Bullish (if demand holds)
Key Concept: Liquidity sweep, demand reaction, corrective retracement
Best Confirmation: Break & hold above intraday supply
⚠️ Always wait for confirmation and manage risk properly.
