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Yen rebound (JPY): a systemic threat?The Japanese yen is close to its lowest level in 40 years and has been the weakest currency in the FX market for several years. However, since the end of January 2026, it has shown a bullish impulse that could mark the beginning of a longer-term upward phase. Could such a regime shift in the yen’s trend represent a threat to Japan, the foreign exchange market, and global finance in general? First, it is important to keep in mind that the recent rebound in the yen (JPY)—that is, the decline in USD/JPY since last Friday—does not yet change the yen’s underlying trend. The yen remains in a broader downtrend. However, if this underlying trend were to reverse from bearish to a new long-term bullish trend, then significant risks for global finance could indeed emerge. These risks are not driven by the yen rebounding per se, but rather by the speed and momentum of any potential appreciation of the Japanese currency. The main systemic risk would stem from the unwinding of yen carry trade positions that are still outstanding. At the same time, it should not be overlooked that a yen rebound can also have positive effects, particularly for the Japanese economy, which is seeking to combat inflation. Here is where the systemic risk to global finance could arise: • If the yen rebounds too quickly (speed is the key factor), there could be a full unwinding of the approximately USD 200 billion in remaining yen carry trade positions, potentially triggering a global market sell-off • If the yen rebounds sharply while Japanese interest rates continue to rise, a major source of global funding would disappear • If the yen rebounds too strongly and too quickly, Japanese institutional investors may repatriate capital invested abroad into domestic assets, triggering selling pressure on global equity markets • From a technical perspective, USD/JPY must not fall below the 140 JPY support level These risks must nevertheless be nuanced and placed within a broader macroeconomic context. A persistently weak yen has certainly supported the competitiveness of Japanese exports and boosted the profits of large listed companies, but it has also imported significant inflation, particularly in energy and food. In this context, a controlled rebound in the yen could instead be viewed as a factor of macroeconomic stabilization for Japan. A stronger yen would help reduce imported inflation, improve the purchasing power of Japanese households, and restore some credibility to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy, which has long been perceived as ultra-accommodative and isolated compared with other major central banks. It would also give the BoJ greater room to gradually normalize its interest rate policy without triggering an inflationary shock. In summary, a yen rebound is not, in itself, a systemic threat. It only becomes potentially dangerous if it is too rapid, too violent, and leads to a sudden end of the yen carry trade. Under a central scenario of gradual normalization, a stronger yen could instead help reduce some of the imbalances accumulated over recent years, both in Japan and globally. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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Education
by Swissquote
IREN | WeeklyNASDAQ:IREN — Quantum Model Projection Technical Update | Weekly Bullish Alt. Scenario 📈 IREN has surged ~90% since mid-December, confirming the Q-Structure λₛ support confluence as a valid launch zone. This advance is projected as the opening phase of Intermediate Wave (5) within Primary Wave ⓷ uptrend, potentially unfolding as an extended advance, with a Fibonacci extension target ➤ $431🎯, possibly into early July. A corrective pullback toward Sup Q-Structure λₛ is expected to develop over the next few weeks. 🔖 This outlook is derived from insights within my Quantum Models framework. Within this methodology, Q-Targets represent high-probability scenarios generated by the confluence of equivalence lines. These Quantum Structures also serve as structural anchors, shaping the model's internal geometry and guiding the evolution of alternative paths as price action unfolds. #CryptoStocks #CryptoMining #QuantumModels
NASDAQ:IRENLong
by ElliottChart
V when does BTC rip? patience butterfly. soon. not yet. but soonThe most important chart right now for BTC is this: XCUUSD/XAUUSD when u look at copper you need to put it in gold pair tanking business cycle heading for a hard landing. bitcoin is a tech stock even though (you and i) know it's not. the world sees it this way. k? that's what's important rn. that's called "being early" but really - i dislike that meme - but it's actually true. how many ppl can articulate bitcoin? nevermind eth. nevermind everything else. for norms the price is product. yas, a bit qween, but not exactly. not in the long term. so hear me out butterfly. the storm is upon us. this is really, honestly, quite common. you can't have hair spray on fire bull markets unless you have some draw down. this is normal! btc went from 15k to like 125k. we will probs do 60-70k lows... then 350k. if that happens are you going to size manage to benefit? this is what you need to be thinking: how do i manage this drawdown 1/ no position is basically "i don't understand this at all" 2/ size managing and paying attention is "i care but i won't lose myself and i'm preparing" 3/ full size is "dumb" 4/ leverage here is "FAFO" so we'll watch this chart. i'm 55% cash. i like sbet but that's a deeper conversation. a way way deeper one. i think eth outperforms btc in the 5-10y context. but honestly, people (the mkt) sees eth as a bitcoin beta in the short term (1-3y) which means... btc lower... eth even lower... and sbet is eth beta... so *even* lower lol. so again, size management. prepare. watch. owl mode. we'll come back. we'll be the ones that survived. that's what keeps you here. that's what stacks the PnL. you can't full port always. well u can. but well... lol. you'll need some luck and that's not really my style. time is the alpha. especially in HQ assets. and best in assets nobody understands. btc/eth are "dinosaurs" to a lot of us. but let's get real, go ask someone on the street to explain this to you. just keep that head screwed on. i'll be here to write when i'm moving. for now. i'm owl mode. perched. hungry. but fasting. i'm going for kill. but i can wait. wait is my alpha. study. V
OANDA:XCUUSD
by VROCKSTAR
1
BTC | 4HCRYPTOCAP:BTC — 4H Zoom-In Transitional Phase | Leading Diagonal Int. (1) Based on this Quantum Model projection, Q-Structure λᵣ2 drove a sharp retracement in Minute Wave ii (circled). An impulsive advance in Minute Wave iii (circled), within Minor Wave 5, is expected to follow. 🔖 This outlook is derived from insights within the Quantum Models framework. Within my methodology, Quantum Structures represent high-probability targets generated by the confluence of equivalence lines. These Q-Structures also serve as structural anchors, shaping the model's internal geometry and guiding the evolution of alternative paths as price action unfolds. #Crypto #MarketStructure #TrendAnalysis #QuantumModels
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by ElliottChart
ETH — Price Slice. Capital Sector. 3162.75 BPC 6.9© Bolzen | The Architect | BPC Framework Bolzen Market Institute 🏷 ETH — Price Slice. Capital Sector. TradingView Publication Date: 29.01.2026 🏷 3162.75 — price not yet reached at time of publication. 🏷 BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant — Strength Index: 6.9 Quantum structure of obligations and capital flow in price formation via energy blocks. 🏷 Vertical chart — Energy Grid Dashboard. 🏷 Static Stream 1: price published in energy-block production sequence. 🏷 The price energy block is already ordered—not by time, but by execution priority. Crucially: block priority dynamically reconfigures in response to hidden energetic impulses, whereas price execution order records their market manifestation. Every price in the dynamic stream is tied to proprietary energy-production metrics inaccessible to the general public. Those who perceive structure before its manifestation do not follow price—they anticipate it. EΞ2Φ8Ψ45Θ·ζ⁻¹·106Λ732·Ω² 📎 Screenshot: 🏷 When trading from levels, use liquidity zones from BPC 10 and above. 🏷 Bolzen Liquidity Map — ETH (numerical equivalent): 🏷 I. Interactive Reference Guide: BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant 🏷 P.S. English is not my native language — I offer no apologies for stylistic imperfections. What you see here is not a post. It is a demonstration of another level of preparation: the symbiosis of human intuition and algorithmic precision. Mathematics and aggressive market analysis — against the machine of liquidations. The persistent ETH and BTC Energy Grid Dashboard remains publicly accessible and is intended for international institutional review. Dear international community, I extend my gratitude to the TradingView moderation team for their impartiality and support of analytical work at the global level, as well as to all who follow my research. This platform serves as a space to demonstrate contributions to the advancement of market analytics. Attention and time are your most valuable resources. ATH is emotion; timeframes are your truest allies. Thank you. — The Architect BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
Long
by Bolzen_Market_Institute
Oil – Roadmap to Summer – 01/28/2026Good afternoon, friends! I decided to dig into oil to complete the picture for my ruble forecast. I'm sleepy, so keeping it short today (will add more details later on my page). Key Points Storage Levels (Commercial + Strategic Reserves) China Reserves as of January 31, 2026: ≈1,095 million barrels (31 days of domestic demand). Growth from November to January: +26 million barrels. The main buildup occurred in December when imports hit a record 54.6 million tonnes (+17% YoY). Current utilization of commercial tanker fleets off the coast (Shandong) exceeds 80% of design capacity — no signs of storage shortage. India Operating SPR capacity (Visakhapatnam, Mangalore, Padur): 39.1 million barrels. Fill level as of January 31, 2026: ~33 million barrels (≈84%). Over three months, an additional 3 million barrels were purchased using budget funds allocated in February 2025. Commercial inventories at refineries remain at a comfortable level of ≈26 days of processing; growth is logistically constrained (Jamnagar port loaded >95%). Demand Takeaway China has built up reserves, but levels remain below the administrative target (35 days). This creates a window for sustained high imports, especially at discounts. India is near its SPR ceiling; further purchases depend on storage expansion (Chambala-2 project, 2027). Reference: Top 10 Oil Importers (2024) China — 11.1 mb/d India — 5.2 mb/d USA — 5.0 mb/d (imports heavy crude for blending) Japan — 2.8 mb/d South Korea — 2.7 mb/d Germany — 1.9 mb/d Netherlands — 1.8 mb/d (Rotterdam — EU's "gateway") Italy — 1.5 mb/d Spain — 1.3 mb/d Singapore — 1.2 mb/d OPEC+ Decisions and Market Impact (Updated January 2026) November 30, 2025 (35th Ministerial Meeting) Decision: Extend voluntary group cuts of 2.2 mb/d through Q1 2026. Effective period: January 1 – March 31, 2026. March 3, 2026 (Expected) In-person meeting in Riyadh. Will consider gradual unwinding of voluntary cuts starting Q2 2026, contingent on "sustained demand growth and declining OECD commercial inventories." Why Specifically Until March 31, 2026? Seasonal demand: Q1 is traditionally weaker for consumption; extending cuts helps prevent inventory buildup. Market uncertainty: January–February brought EU recession risks and Suez Canal logistics disruptions. Tengiz incident: The 0.45 mb/d reduction from Kazakhstan further tightens the balance, prompting OPEC+ to "play it safe" and maintain discipline. Price Expectations Confident bullish bias amid OPEC production cuts leading up to the next meeting. Key level and first target: 73.30 USD Scenario A: Cuts Unwound on March 3 Price returns to 59 USD Followed by a correction to 64 USD (China restocks at a discount) Further decline to 52 USD possible — I lean toward this scenario Scenario B: Cuts Extended for Another Quarter Sideways movement: 72–76 USD Potential spike to 80–81 USD Then retracement to 68.50 USD Why I Consider Scenario B Unlikely The weighted-average discount on Russian barrels vs. Brent is ≈12 USD/barrel; during congestion or rising freight rates, it temporarily widens to 14–15 USD. Meaningful damage to the Russian economy only occurs when oil revenues fall below 70 USD. Sanctions are designed to keep oil prices within a range that is painful for Russia. Therefore, prices will absolutely not be allowed above 82 USD. In other words, to maintain sanctions effectiveness during the conflict, the logical approach is to cap prices at 74 USD.
RUS:BR1!Long
by SinnSeed
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – Key Level Watch Signal Bullish Scenario Break & close above 90,000 resistance → targets ~93,300 (upper target zone marked) Bearish Scenario Break & close below lower trendline support → targets ~86,000 (lower target zone) Current price action consolidating around 89k–90k — waiting for decisive breakout either way. High volatility expected.#Bitcoin #BTCUSD #Crypto #Trading #Breakout #BTC #Investing #Investor #CryptoTradingNot financial advice — Purely technical observation from the chart. Crypto trading carries very high risk of loss. Always DYOR and manage risk properly.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by PremiumTrader57
USDCAD bearish momentum intact below 1.3680The USDCAD currency pair continues to display a bearish outlook, in line with the prevailing downward trend. Recent price action suggests a corrective pullback, potentially setting up for another move lower if resistance holds. Key Level: 1.3680 This zone, previously a consolidation area, now acts as a significant resistance level. Bearish Scenario (rejection at 1.3680): A failed test and rejection at 1.3680 would likely resume the bearish momentum. Downside targets include: 1.3475 – Initial support 1.3440 – Intermediate support 1.3400 – Longer-term support level Bullish Scenario (breakout above 1.3680): A confirmed breakout and daily close above 1.3680 would invalidate the bearish setup. In that case, potential upside resistance levels are: 1.3740 – First resistance 1.3770 – Further upside target Conclusion USDCAD remains under bearish pressure, with the 1.3680 level acting as a key inflection point. As long as price remains below this level, the bias favors further downside. Traders should watch for price confirmation around that level to assess the next move. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
WIPRO | Gann Square of 9 – 45° Support Case Study | 28 Mar 2022This idea presents a historical intraday example of how the Gann Square of 9 can be used to identify logical support levels based on price–degree relationships. On 28 March 2022, WIPRO Ltd initiated a downward move after forming its 0° reference point near ₹609. 📐 Gann Degree Structure 0° level: 609 45° level: 597 Using the Square of 9 calculations, ₹597 emerged as the next geometric downside level. ⏱️ Price–Time Alignment (Gann Guideline) According to classical Gann intraday observations: Support reactions often appear when 45° is reached before 2:30 PM, or 90° is reached before 2:45 PM In this session, price completed the 45° move within the valid time window, and a clear upward reaction followed from the ₹597 zone. 🧠 Key Learning This case study demonstrates that: Degree completion helps define objective support Reversals occur from measured levels, not guesswork Gann geometry converts price action into structured behavior 📌 Conclusion The Gann Square of 9 offers a rule-based method to identify intraday support and resistance. When price respects degree levels within time, reactions often become clearer and more reliable. Disclaimer: This chart is shared strictly for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute trading or investment advice.
NSE:WIPRO
by WD_Gann_Theory
Royal Gold (RGLD) Poised for Growth with $3.5B Sandstorm Acq.🚀 **Royal Gold (RGLD) Poised for Growth with $3.5B Sandstorm Acquisition!** 🥇 Royal Gold ( NASDAQ:RGLD ) is making waves with its $3.5B all-stock acquisition of Sandstorm Gold ( NYSE:SAND ) and a $196M cash buyout of Horizon Copper, announced July 7, 2025. Here’s why this could be a game-changer for investors! 📈 **🔥 Financial Highlights:** - **Q2 2025 Performance**: Sold 40,600 GEOs at $3,248/oz gold, $32.91/oz silver, with an impressive 87% gross margin. $11.1B market cap reflects strength. 💰 - **Acquisition Impact**: Sandstorm deal adds 40 producing assets, boosting 2025 GEO production by 26%. Expect revenue & earnings growth post-Q4 2025 close. 🚀 - **Dividend Confidence**: Declared $0.45/share Q3 dividend, signaling robust cash flows. 💸 **📊 Sector Edge & Valuation**: - **Undervalued?** Compared to Wheaton ($56B) & Franco-Nevada ($44B), Royal Gold’s lower valuation (per RBC Capital) could signal a bargain. Post-deal scale (75% gold revenue) may close the gap. 📉 - **Performance**: Sandstorm’s record Q1 2025 results + Royal Gold’s aggressive expansion outpace peers in growth potential. 🚀 **⚠️ Risks to Watch**: - 6%–8.5% stock dip post-announcement reflects dilution fears (~19M new shares). 📉 - Commodity price volatility & regulatory approvals (due Q4 2025) pose risks. ⚖️ **🎯 SWOT Snapshot**: - **Strengths**: Enhanced portfolio, 87% margins, leading North American royalty player. - **Opportunities**: Analyst optimism (BMO $197 target) & copper exposure via Horizon. - **Weaknesses**: Short-term dilution concerns. - **Threats**: Commodity price swings, peer competition. **💡 Why Buy Now?** Royal Gold’s stock dip could be a buying opportunity, with analysts like BMO ($197 target) and unusual options activity signaling confidence. If precious metals stay hot ($3,342.80/oz gold futures), RGLD’s diversified portfolio could shine! 🌟 📅 **Deal Close**: Q4 2025, pending approvals. 🔎 **Dive Deeper**: Check Royal Gold’s IR page or Yahoo Finance for details. What’s your take on NASDAQ:RGLD ’s big move? Bullish or cautious? 🐂🐻 #StockMarket #Gold #Investing
NASDAQ:RGLDLong
by DCAChampion
GOLD The Target Is DOWN! SELL! My dear subscribers, GOLD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 5267.0 pivot level. Bias - Bearish My Stop Loss - 5295.1 Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 5208.0 About Used Indicators: The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by AnabelSignals
1
JD: Final Wave 2 consolidation (patience before the breakout)Thesis NASDAQ:JD is still compressing in the final stages of Wave 2, and the longer this base builds, the stronger the breakout typically becomes. Context - Weekly timeframe - Multi-year downtrend transitioned into a base - Compression phase continues while peers already broke out (BABA, BIDU) - 2026 remains the window for JD to catch up What I see - Standard late-stage consolidation behavior for a Wave 2 structure - Volatility keeps compressing inside the wedge - Support is still holding, while resistance is still capping price - Nothing “broken” here — just time passing and pressure building What matters now - We need patience until the weekly breakout and hold above wedge resistance - Until that happens, this is still a compression structure, not the breakout itself - The longer this range holds, the better the breakout odds and follow-through Buy / Accumulation zone - Wedge floor / support zone remains the area of interest - Risk stays clean as long as support holds Targets - Wave 3 target remains: 1.618 Fib at ~$71 - Higher extensions come later once Wave 3 plays out and Wave 4 support is confirmed Risk / Invalidation -Loss of the wedge floor support would delay the bullish catch-up thesis
NASDAQ:JDLong
by maratteo
GOLD Buyers In Panic! SELL! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on GOLD and concluded the following: The market is trading on 5088.9 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 5049.0 Safe Stop Loss - 5114.5 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by AnabelSignals
2