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1000 USD: Coffee Bull Market Overview: Prices set to DOUBLE ☕ Coffee (Arabica, ICE “KC”) — Outlook to 2026 Where we are: Nearby Arabica trades ~405–410 US¢/lb after a parabolic 2025 on weather stress, thin deliverable stocks, and policy shocks. The Dec ’25 contract is ~400 ¢/lb. Big picture 2025/26: Official global production is pegged at a record ~178.7 M bags (robusta-led) versus ~169.4 M bags consumption; ending stocks remain tight near ~22.8 M. Inside that headline, arabica is the pinch point: Brazil’s arabica is down year over year on heat/drought, and multiple private houses flag an arabica deficit on the order of ~–8.5 M bags for 2025/26. ________________________________________ 🤖 1) Brazil 2025 flowering & 2026 crop execution (↑ to 9.5/10) Why it matters: Brazil is the swing producer for arabica; 2026 outcomes hinge on Sep–Oct 2025 flowering and the trees’ carryover stress from 2024–25 dryness/frost. Local co-ops in Cerrado report frost-related damage with six-figure bag impacts to 2026 potential. What we’re seeing: The latest national estimate cuts 2025 output to ~55.2 M bags total (arabica ~35.2 M), confirming a weaker arabica “off” year. Talk of a “super 2026” has faded unless rains arrive and stick through flowering and early fruit set. Why 9.5/10? A missed flowering or poor fruit set is the cleanest path to a 2026 arabica shortfall big enough to rip futures. ________________________________________ 🌍 2) U.S. 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee (new 9.0/10) Why it matters: The U.S. typically imports ~8 M bags from Brazil. A 50% tariff (effective Aug 6, 2025) distorts flows, inflates U.S. landed costs, and channels more hedging into NY “KC,” structurally supporting futures. Brazil trade groups directly linked August’s vertical move to the tariff shock. Why 9.0/10? If the tariff persists into 2026, basis stays elevated and retail prices remain sticky even if global aggregates look “adequate.” ________________________________________ 🧭 3) EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) go-live (↑ 8.8/10) Why it matters: Traceability/geolocation rules begin Dec 30, 2025 for large/medium operators (SMEs Jun 30, 2026). Compliance temporarily shrinks “eligible” supply and reprices differentials. Why 8.8/10? Early-2026 could see EU-grade shortages, wider diffs, and higher KC via arbitrage. ________________________________________ 📉 4) Exchange (ICE) certified stock drawdown (↑ 8.5/10) Why it matters: Deliverable supply amplifies squeezes. Arabica certified stocks ~0.67–0.78 M bags in early September—thin for the season. Why 8.5/10? With low float, any weather or logistics hiccup can air-pocket futures into blow-off spikes. ________________________________________ 🌡️ 5) ENSO/La Niña watch & Brazil rainfall tail-risk (holds 8.0/10) Why it matters: La Niña-skewed patterns risk ill-timed rain (flower knock-off) or too-little rain (poor fruit set) in Minas Gerais during Sep–Oct. Early September dryness was flagged; late-September storms are pivotal. Why 8.0/10? The timing of rain matters as much as totals; a mis-timed pattern is enough to dent 2026 yields. ________________________________________ 🇻🇳 6) Vietnam robusta recovery vs. water stress (↑ 7.8/10) Why it matters: Robusta tightness forced blend shifts. A rebound toward ~31 M bags in 2025/26 would cap KC via spread relief; persistent water stress/tree fatigue would keep robusta tight, forcing arabica to carry the world. Why 7.8/10? Binary swing factor: a real rebound cools spreads; a miss extends the squeeze into 2026. ________________________________________ 🏛️ 7) Policy & trade fragmentation beyond U.S. tariffs (↑ 7.5/10) Why it matters: Frictions and exemptions remain fluid. Retaliation or parallel measures could redirect flows to EU/Asia, move basis, and distort origin diffs. Why 7.5/10? The tariff is already biting; add-ons would compound tightness. ________________________________________ 💵 8) FX (BRL) & producer selling (↑ 7.0/10) Why it matters: A stronger BRL curbs farmer selling; a weak BRL unleashes hedges and pressures KC. Policy/inflation noise keeps BRL volatile. Why 7.0/10? Not first-order, but magnifies weather/policy shocks. ________________________________________ 🏭 9) Demand elasticity & substitution (holds 6.8/10) Why it matters: 2025 sticker shock clipped demand by roughly –0.5%. 2026 could stabilize if prices plateau; if retail rises further (tariffs/EUDR), more down-trading or substitution (robusta/other beverages) caps upside. Why 6.8/10? A genuine headwind to the $10/lb path unless supply breaks further. ________________________________________ 🚢 10) Logistics, certifications & differentials (new 6.5/10) Why it matters: Tight washed/tenderable pools, evolving ICE rules/diffs, and shipping bottlenecks can widen basis and squeeze deliverables. Why 6.5/10? Secondary, but adds fuel to any fundamental spark. ________________________________________ 📈 11) Spec positioning & financial flows (↑ 6.5/10) Why it matters: 2025’s run featured panic buying in a low-float market. Another weather scare + thin stocks invites CTA/momentum flows through round-numbers. Why 6.5/10? Not fundamental—but can yank KC vertically. ________________________________________ 🧪 12) “Record global production” optics vs. arabica reality (new 6.0/10) Why it matters: The record headline is robusta-led. Inside, Brazil arabica declines and exporters stay cautious. The market trades the arabica bottleneck, not the aggregate. Why 6.0/10? This optics gap sustains volatility—bulls can still win if arabica under-delivers. ________________________________________ Updated Catalyst Scorecard Rank Catalyst Score 1 Brazil 2025 flowering → 2026 crop 9.5 2 U.S. 50% tariff on Brazil 9.0 3 EU EUDR (Dec 30, 2025 start) 8.8 4 Low ICE certified stocks 8.5 5 ENSO/La Niña rainfall risk 8.0 6 Vietnam robusta recovery risk 7.8 7 Wider trade policy fragmentation 7.5 8 FX (BRL) & selling behavior 7.0 9 Demand elasticity/substitution 6.8 10 Logistics, diffs & certification frictions 6.5 11 Spec/CTA flows 6.5 12 “Record crop” optics vs arabica bottleneck 6.0 ________________________________________ 📊 Supply–Demand Snapshot — Why Arabica Is the Pinch Point • World 2025/26: Production ~178.7 M; consumption ~169.4 M; ending stocks ~22.8 M (still lean). • Brazil arabica: ~40.9 M (down ~2.8 M YoY); robusta records elsewhere (Brazil/Indonesia); Vietnam recovery penciled near 31 M. • Private balance: Arabica deficit ~–8.5 M for 2025/26 (vs ~–5.5 M in 2024/25). • ICE plumbing: Certified arabica ~0.67–0.78 M bags and trending lower → thin deliverables, higher tail-risk premia. ________________________________________ 🔍 Recent Headlines You Should Know • KC spiked toward/above $4/lb in early 2025 on panic buying, weather, and policy shocks. • “Record global crop” headlines coexist with lower Brazil arabica and tight ending stocks. • U.S. 50% Brazil tariff (Aug 6, 2025) credited with a ~30% surge in August. • EUDR deferred to Dec 30, 2025 for large/medium operators; compliance scramble into 1H26. • Early-Sep 2025 Minas dryness kept flowering risk live; markets watching late-Sep showers. ________________________________________ 🎯 Street & Agency Views (as of Sep 2025) • Early-2025 consensus had end-2025 ~$2.95/lb, expecting mean reversion. The market disagreed post-tariffs. • One multilateral outlook saw >50% y/y up in 2025, then –15% in 2026, assuming supply normalization and Colombia recovery. • Several trade houses continue to highlight a widening arabica deficit into 2025/26. Takeaway: Consensus expects some 2026 cooling, but policy + compliance + arabica weather can overwhelm “aggregate surplus” narratives. ________________________________________ 🧭 Pathways to 1,000 ¢/lb in 2026 (Aggressive Target) We’re already near 400 ¢. To reach $10/lb, the market needs a stack of arabica-specific shocks that persist into 2026: 1. Brazil under-delivers in 2026: Patchy/failed flowering (Sep–Oct ’25) and/or heat during fruit set reduce yields; 2026 arabica ≤ ~38–40 M. 2. Tariffs persist through 2026: U.S. 50% duty remains in force, lifting U.S. basis and rerouting flows; fewer tenderable lots into ICE. 3. EUDR friction bites in 1H26: Non-compliant lots stranded; compliant premiums surge; differentials widen and pull KC higher. 4. Certified stocks < ~500k bags: Roaster drawdown + limited grading/tendering triggers backwardation and squeeze mechanics. 5. Vietnam misses rebound: Water stress or tree fatigue keeps robusta tight; arabica must carry blends globally. 6. Pro-cyclical flows: Thin deliverables + headlines = momentum/CTA accelerants through round numbers (500 → 700 → 900 → 1,000). Probability assessment: Not the base case, but plausible if two or more of (1–4) coincide while financial flows amplify. Call it ~20–25% conditional on Q4’25 weather and policy staying restrictive. ________________________________________ 🧮 Scenario Framework (NY Arabica, nearby; end-2026) • Bull (30%) — Squeeze: Brazil 2026 < 40 M; tariff persists; EUDR tight; certifieds < 0.5 M; Vietnam under-shoots. Price: 800–1,000 ¢/lb (blow-off spikes possible above 1,000 on transient squeezes). • Base (50%) — Elevated & volatile: Brazil 2026 ~41–44 M; tariff partially eased or offset; EUDR frictions fade by 2H26; Vietnam rebounds. Price: 450–650 ¢/lb with episodic spikes on weather or logistics. • Bear (20%) — Normalization: Strong Brazil flowering → 2026 ≥ 45 M; tariff rolled back; EUDR compliance smoother; certifieds rebuild > 1.2 M; demand softens. Price: 280–420 ¢/lb (vol still above pre-2024 norms). ________________________________________ 🗓️ Watchlist & Timeline (what to track) • Sep–Oct 2025: Brazil flowering windows (Minas/Cerrado/N. São Paulo). Look for rain onset, follow-up, and heat bursts. • Nov–Dec 2025: Fruit set confirmation; disease incidence; updated 2026 potential. • Dec 30, 2025: EUDR go-live (large/medium operators). • Q1–Q2 2026: Compliance bottlenecks, EU diffs, tenderable quality flows into ICE. • All 2025/26: Tariff status, BRL swings, certified stock trajectory, Vietnam water/harvest updates. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Matrix (what flips the call bearish) • Timely rains in Sep–Oct 2025 and mild temps → robust fruit set; Brazil 2026 ≥ 45 M. • Tariff rollback or broad exemptions reduce U.S. basis support. • Vietnam outperform (> 31 M) relieves spreads; Indonesia robusta stays strong. • Certified stocks rebuild > 1.2 M bags by mid-2026. • Demand destruction accelerates (retail fatigue, substitution), capping upside. ________________________________________ 📌 Positioning Lens (informational, not advice) • Drivers of upside convexity: Brazil weather into October, policy stickiness (tariff/EUDR), and certified stock path. • Tell-tales of a squeeze: Steepening backwardation, diffs blowing out for compliant washeds, and rapid certified draw alongside rising exchange open interest. • Tell-tales of normalization: Strong flowering reports, improved grading pass-rates, certified rebuilds, and easing EU compliance premia. ________________________________________ Bottom Line • The base case remains elevated and volatile into 2026, not automatic mean reversion. • A credible path to 1,000 ¢/lb exists if Brazil’s 2026 arabica disappoints, policy frictions persist, EUDR pins EU-grade supply, and certifieds fall sub-0.5 M, with CTA flows doing the rest. • Conversely, timely Brazil rains, tariff relief, and a clean EUDR transition cap the rally and pull prices toward the high-$3s/low-$4s.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEELong
by ProjectSyndicate
64
Tesla Stock Wobbles as Profit Dives 37%, Revenue Pops. Now What?Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA posted a 12% jump in revenue on Wednesday, reaching $28.1 billion, well above Wall Street’s $26.37 billion estimate. And yet, the stock slipped nearly 1% on the day before paring back that loss with a 2.3% Thursday gain. Why? Because profits fell faster than Cybertruck’s reputation — a 37% plunge year over year, with adjusted earnings per share at 50 cents versus the expected 54 cents. It’s a classic Tesla paradox: sales are booming, but margins are thinning, and Wall Street can’t decide whether to cheer the top line or cry over the bottom one. 🏎️ The Cost of Staying in the Fast Lane Tesla’s secret sauce has always been scale — crank out more cars, dominate market share, and let profits follow. But this quarter, the recipe’s a bit off. Automotive revenue rose 6% to $21.2 billion, yet net income plunged to $1.37 billion from $2.17 billion a year earlier . What happened? Price cuts. Lots of them. Musk has been slashing sticker prices across markets to stay ahead in the EV race — great for consumers, painful for margins. Add a 50% spike in operating expenses (thanks, humanoid robots and AI labs), and suddenly that sleek electric machine looks a lot less money-making. Still, Tesla’s revenue growth means one thing: demand isn’t dead. The EV slowdown hasn’t reached Palo Alto yet. 💰 Bitcoin Bounces In a crypto-centric subplot, the company made $62 million from its Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD stash last quarter. The crypto’s 5% rise — ending the quarter around $114,000 — gave Tesla’s treasury a nice digital cushion. The company held roughly 11,000 Bitcoins during the three months through September. 🧠 The $1 Trillion Question And then there’s the other storyline — the Elon Musk Show. Musk wrapped up the earnings call by pivoting from profits to power. Specifically, his proposed $1 trillion pay package , which he insists isn’t “compensation” at all but a question of “control.” “I just don’t feel comfortable building a robot army here and then being ousted because of some asinine recommendations from ISS and Glass Lewis,” Musk quipped, slamming the proxy firms as “corporate terrorists.” His plan is to secure roughly mid-20s voting power to keep Tesla’s destiny firmly in his hands while still, as he puts it, being “fireable if I go insane.” If approved, Musk’s stake could surge from 13% to nearly 29%, giving him the leverage he says he needs to push Tesla toward an $8.5 trillion valuation — complete with robotaxis, humanoid bots, and up to 12 million cars sold annually. 🧾 The Takeaway The stock is up roughly 16% in 2025, clawing back some early-year losses, but it still lags the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC and other mega-cap peers like Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA and Meta $META. The near-term question is simple: can Tesla tighten costs without killing growth? The long-term one is bigger: can Elon Musk lead the company into its next chapter without turning every quarter into a cliffhanger? That said, the earnings season continues and the next batch of big tech heavyweights is right around the corner. Off to you : What’s your take on Tesla and Musk’s lofty vision north of $1 trillion? Share your thoughts in the comments!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TradingView
24
NIFTY50.....Touched my target range! And now?Hello Traders, Thank you to everyone sent me get-well wishes. The NIFTY50 has touched my target range @26104 and after, it reversed. The week closed @25795. It has left a candle with a long wick and a small red body, indicating that the most trading occurred in that area! Chart analysis: First; the indicators (RSI, Momentum) are strongly overborard. But while Indicators are always lagging, I don't want to give more attention than necessary. More important is the weekly candle. The N50 has risen for four weeks, whereby the last candle is the weakest, due to the long wick! Therefore, a corrective setback is possible, mperhaps down to the range of 25781 to 25791! More bearish potential exist! One argument is, that the decline is going lower, testing the range of a around 25654 to 25233 area. Here, one more Order-block is at the chart. A corretive zone is, to my view, @ or around 25680. The bulls need the upward trend to resume immediately, latest within the next 2 days, and a break above the high @ 26104! So, the levels have been set, and we let the market make his decitions. That`s it for now..... Have a great week..... Ruebennase Please ask or comment as appropriate. Trade on this analysis at your own risk.
NSE:NIFTY
by ruebennase
1
Up again for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD went up (making a Triangle invalid), made a correction down and went up again. It looks like the coreection was a running flat. So now price could be in the next impulsive wave 5 (red) up and next week we could see more upside for this pair. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for the finish of this bigger correction. Trading inside a Triangle is a sure way to lose. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. But I react and trade on what I see in the chart, not what I've predicted or expect. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
1
Gold weekly chart with both buy and sell entriesLast week both buy and sell levels hit for over 1000 pips each. This will probably be my last chart for awhile as i dont think theres much intrest in this ### XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart Analysis #### **Key Levels Identified** The chart shows critical **support/resistance zones** based on Fibonacci retracements, historical price action, and labeled key levels. Below is a breakdown of actionable buy/sell levels: --- ### **1. Buy Levels (Long Entry)** These levels represent potential support where price may reverse upward: - **Primary Buy Zone**: `4,126` (labeled "Buy 4126" on the chart) - **Why?** This level aligns with the **0.236 Fibonacci retracement** of the recent swing high (4,164) to swing low (4,004). Historically, price has bounced here. - **Entry Trigger**: Wait for bullish reversal signals (e.g., bullish engulfing candle, RSI divergence, or price closing above the 5-period EMA). - **Stop Loss**: `4,095` (below the "Sell 4100" resistance level). - **Take Profit**: Target `4,160` (Key 4160 resistance), then `4,180` and `4,184`. - **Secondary Buy Zone**: `4,110–4,115` (near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at `4,113.253`) - **Why?** The price is consolidating here after a dip. A hold above `4,100` (Sell 4100 level) suggests bullish momentum. - **Stop Loss**: `4,095` (as above). - **Take Profit**: Same as primary zone (`4,160` and beyond). --- ### **2. Sell Levels (Short Entry)** These levels represent potential resistance where price may reverse downward: - **Primary Sell Zone**: `4,132` (0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the swing high/low) - **Why?** This level is a strong resistance zone where the price often reverses after a rally. - **Entry Trigger**: Wait for bearish reversal signals (e.g., bearish pin bar, RSI divergence, or price rejecting the level). - **Stop Loss**: `4,135` (above the resistance level). - **Take Profit**: Target `4,099` (0.5 Fib), then `4,086` (0.382 Fib), and `4,050` (Key 4050 support). - **Secondary Sell Zone**: `4,160` (labeled "Key 4160") - **Why?** This is the **major swing high** (4,164) and a key psychological resistance level. A rejection here confirms a bearish trend. - **Entry Trigger**: Price must break above `4,160` and then fail to hold (e.g., a bearish candlestick pattern at the level). - **Stop Loss**: `4,165` (above the resistance level). - **Take Profit**: Same as primary sell zone (`4,099` and below). --- ### **Critical Context** - **Current Price**: `4,111.797` (EMA 5 close). This is **above support (`4,100`)** and **below resistance (`4,132`)**. - **Trend**: Short-term downward momentum after the 4,164 high, but price is recovering from a low. Wait for confirmation of reversal. - **Fibonacci Retracement**: - `0.786` (4,132) and `0.618` (4,113) act as key resistance/support. - `0.5` (4,099) and `0.382` (4,086) are stronger support levels. - **Risk Management**: - Always use a stop loss to limit downside risk. - Target levels should align with the broader trend (e.g., if the trend is bearish, prioritize sell setups). --- ### **Summary of Actionable Levels** | **Trade Type** | **Entry Level** | **Stop Loss** | **Take Profit** | **Confirmation Signal** | |----------------|-----------------|---------------|-----------------|-------------------------| | **Buy** | 4,126 (primary)4,110–4,115 (secondary) | 4,095 | 4,160 → 4,180 → 4,184 | Bullish reversal candle, RSI divergence | | **Sell** | 4,132 (primary)4,160 (secondary) | 4,135 → 4,165 | 4,099 → 4,086 → 4,050 | Bearish reversal candle, RSI divergence | > **Note**: Always validate entries with additional indicators (e.g., RSI, volume) and avoid trading during low-volume periods. The 4-hour timeframe favors medium-term trades (1–3 days), so patience is key.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by F0rexBorex
2
GBPUSD maintains a bearish outlook👋Hello everyone, what do you think about FX:GBPUSD ? Currently, GBPUSD continues to trade within a clear downtrend channel on the chart. The British pound remains weak, and technical indicators show that the EMA 34 is still below the EMA 89, confirming that the downtrend is likely to persist. The next key support level is around 1.325, where the price might find some buying pressure. However, if this support level is broken, the likelihood of further downside is quite high. In the short term, I maintain a bearish outlook for GBPUSD. What do you think about this currency pair? 💬Leave your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by Kevinn_Nguyen
15
TESLA On The Rise! BUY! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the TESLA next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 433.50 Bias - Bullish Safe Stop Loss - 429.07 Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal -440.74 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by AnabelSignals
2
#XRP/USDT (1H) chart, here’s a full technical read:#XRP The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading for a strong breakout and retest. We have a bearish trend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken and retested, which supports the upward breakout. There is a major support area in green at 2.36, representing a strong support point. We are heading for consolidation above the 100 moving average. Entry price: 2.38 First target: 2.41 Second target: 2.47 Third target: 2.53 Don't forget a simple matter: capital management. When you reach the first target, save some money and then change your stop-loss order to an entry order. For inquiries, please leave a comment. Thank you.
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
1
Analysis of gold price trends next weekShort-term catalyst: Risk disturbances and technological stabilization form a synergy Geopolitical "tail risks" continue to escalate: The escalation of US sanctions against Russian energy giants, the intensification of competition in the technology sector between China and the US, coupled with the 23-day government shutdown crisis in the US, have continuously fuelled market risk aversion. What is even more alarming is that the new restrictions in the Russian energy sector have spilled over to the transportation costs of commodities, and if this potential risk unfolds, it will rapidly drive funds into gold. Stabilization after sharp decline validates support strength: On October 21, the spot price of gold in London dropped by more than 6% from its historical high of 4,381 US dollars, approaching the 4,100 US dollar mark, but then rebounded rapidly. On October 23, the intraday gain was over 1.27%, recovering most of the lost ground. This "sharp decline without collapse" trend fully confirms the strong support effect in the 4,000-4,100 US dollar range and also reflects the market's recognition of the long-term value of gold. Technical aspect presents "strong consolidation" characteristics: The daily chart shows that after the price decline, it still operates above the middle band (3,964.72 US dollars) of the Bollinger Bands, without disrupting the upward trend; the RSI indicator has dropped from the overbought zone to the middle-high level of 58.19, which is a healthy "cooling without breaking through". Currently, the price is in the stabilization stage after the correction, and as long as the key support is held, the second upward attack momentum will gradually accumulate. Trading strategy for gold next week xauusd @buy4040-4060 TP:4110-4150-4200
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
1
EURUSD now bullishHello! Finally i think its a bullrun now on eurusd. Timeframe: 4 H *Trend reversal=Double bottom *Higher low *Climbing on the mini trendline Break above bullish resistance, retest it and we take action. We have a really strong resistance since 24 Juny this year at price 1.17292. Trading plan: Entry: 1.16537-1.16627 Sl: 1.16271 Tp1: 1.17294 RR-2.84 Tp2: 1.17769 RR-4.61 Tp3: 1.18187 RR-6.12 Tp4: 1.19171 RR-9.92 when Tp1 hit, move all positions to entry. This is not a financial rekommendation, only a personal trading plan. Are you bullish on eurusd? let me know. Best regards/ D trading team
Long
by Danneztrading
2
USD/CHF - Channel Breakout (24.10.2025) Setup Overview: USD/CHF has completed a rising channel formation and is now showing signs of a bearish breakout below the lower trendline. The pair rejected the resistance zone near 0.7985 – 0.7970, confirming exhaustion in bullish momentum. 💡 Technical Setup: Pattern: Rising Channel Breakout Cloud Cross: Adds bearish confluence Resistance Zone: 0.7985 – 0.7970 Trendline: Clear breakdown structure visible on 30-min timeframe 📉 Trading Plan: Bias: Bearish below 0.7960 🟥 1st Support: 0.7925 🟥 2nd Support: 0.7906 Invalidation: A daily close above 0.7985 may negate this setup 📰 Market Context: 1.The U.S. dollar faces minor pullbacks as traders await upcoming inflation data and FOMC signals. 2.Swiss franc gains slight safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and risk market concerns. 3. Technically and fundamentally, short-term sentiment favors a downside correction on USD/CHF. #USDCHF #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #ChannelBreakout #BearishSetup #Ichimoku #TradingView #KABHI_TA_TRADING #ChartsDontLieTradersDontQuit #FXMarket #USD #CHF #TrendlineBreak #CloudCross ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only — not financial advice. Please do your own research and use strict risk management when trading live markets. 📣 Support My Work If you like my analysis — LIKE 👍, COMMENT 💬, and FOLLOW 🔔 for more daily Forex setups and updates!
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
39
Lower CPI Data – But Don’t Be Fooled by “Good” Inflation Numbers Summary: Markets cheered on lower CPI data, but the optimism might be misplaced. A softer inflation print gives the FED more flexibility, yet it also reduces the urgency for two rate cuts this year — something traders had already priced in. Logic: CPI came in weaker → short-term bullish sentiment. But the real driver of rates is not CPI alone — it’s the balance between inflation and growth. With inflation easing and economic activity still stable, the FED doesn’t need to cut twice in 2025. Futures market (CME FedWatch) was pricing two cuts, which means that optimism is already priced into NASDAQ valuations. Scenario Outlook: If CPI remains stable and growth holds → only one cut or delay, not two. That means tech valuations might need to reprice lower, especially high beta names. NASDAQ could revisit support around 17,000–17,200 before finding balance again. Trading View: Watch for rejection near 18,000–18,200 (overextension after CPI rally). Short-term bias: bearish / correction mode. Long-term bias: still bullish, but needs valuation reset.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Rendon1
7
#XAUUSD: +6000 Pips Swing Move In Making, Patience Pays! Gold prices have fallen sharply as the DXY has regained strength. Following the recent significant sell-off, we can anticipate the potential direction of the price. Three key targets can be considered if the price moves in our favour. The first is a nearby target at $4000 which would represent a gain of 1100 pips. Subsequent targets should be determined according to your trading plan. There are two potential entry points; if the first is invalidated the second should be considered. We wish you the best of luck and trade safely. Team Setupsfx 🚀❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Setupsfx_
6
BTCUSD – When the rebound is just a trapAfter a short technical rebound around 111–113k, Bitcoin is now facing a strong resistance zone — where both EMA 34 & EMA 89 converge, along with a key supply area that triggered the mid-October selloff. Structurally, the chart is forming a series of lower highs , while the recovery momentum remains weak and buying volume keeps fading — clear signs that bulls are losing strength. If BTC fails to break above the 113k–115k zone, the price could turn lower toward 107k support , or even retest the long-term ascending trendline. Although recent news shows continued ETF inflows, their impact seems to be diminishing. With the USD showing mild strength and market sentiment still cautious after the earlier crash, bears are gradually taking control in the short term. Scenario to watch Resistance zone: 113k – 115k Target zone: 107k – 105k Upcoming trend: mild downside or support retest
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Octaviuss
6
The Clearance Theory Dear Followers As an analyst I always watch the market and take a notes I would like to share one of my theorys today I did notice this pattern did happen before throw the last few years I call it the The clearance it did happen before when the market was about to move strongly toward a new direction and for making sure it will face a weak resistance the market will try to fulfill most of the pending orders before his final move it takes the pending orders and dumb it till all the major orders fulfilled, Then >>>>>>>> Good luck everyone
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by AlQasim_Analysis
3