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Chumtrades XAUUSD Outlook – Will Gold Continue Sideways Today?🎯 XAUUSD – Sideway Day Before FOMC 1️⃣ Market Context H4 is clearly moving sideways: small candle bodies – long upper and lower wicks, indicating hesitation before FOMC (occurring the night of the 11th into the morning of the 12th). The price is currently locked in the H4 range: Lower boundary: 4176–4180 Upper boundary: 4215–4218 Today I am observing the price moving sideways within this range. 2️⃣ Intraday Trading Strategy BUY low – priority Watch for reactions at the zones: 4180 – 4182 4174 – 4178 (bottom of H4 range) 4155 – 415X (most attractive BUY zone) → Short target: 4200 – 4210 → SL below support zone by 100 pips 🔻 SELL high – priority Watch for reactions at: 4212 – 4218 (top of H4 range) 4230 – 4233 (strong resistance – most attractive sell zone) → Target: return to mid-range 4190 → bottom of range 417X → SL above resistance zone by 100 pips The nearest zone is 4202-4198, this entry can be considered 3️⃣ Expected Movement Today → Sideways within H4 box 4176 ⇆ 4212. Just trade according to the range: buy low – sell high. Expected daily fluctuation range is 50-55 prices. A true breakout may occur tomorrow or the day after, as the market prepares for this week's FOMC. 📌 Note Prioritize candle reactions at price zones. Avoid FOMO in the middle of the range. Divide positions smaller than usual as the market tightens before major news. Find this analysis useful? Press Follow to update the plan daily before trading hours and discuss more effective strategies! Wishing everyone a day of total victory in trading!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Chum_trades
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 10, 2025 USDJPYEvent to watch today: 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision USDJPY: The U.S.–Japan rate differential remains the dominant driver: even with discussion of BoJ normalization, U.S. yields are markedly higher, fueling interest in dollar assets. Into today’s decision, the yen fluctuates near 156 per dollar as participants await the Fed outcome and hints about the frequency of future steps. In Japan, inflation stays moderately above target, but wage growth and domestic demand do not yet guarantee lasting normalization, keeping the BoJ gradual. The risk of sharp verbal intervention is lower while there is no shock capital outflow or dysfunction in the JGB market, and local measures along the curve only smooth volatility. If the Fed confirms a modest move but retains a protective tone, the dollar’s yield advantage should persist and support USD/JPY. With neutral risk conditions and a calm global backdrop, the pair has scope to approach the upper end of the recent range, while only a clear BoJ readiness for faster rate hikes could shift the balance. Trading recommendation: BUY 156.750, SL 155.850, TP 159.450
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
1
XAU/USD Daily Outlook – Tuesday Strategy The Tokyo session offered a decent buying opportunity, which I utilized by opening a position at 4175.5 and closing at 4185. This early move reinforces the view that intraday selling pressure remains limited, aligning with my mid-term bullish bias. Market Context Investors have largely priced in a Federal Reserve rate cut, but the real risk lies in the magnitude of the easing cycle. A milder-than-expected approach could disrupt linear bullish momentum and introduce volatility. With the Fed decision scheduled for Wednesday, the market is in a cautious stance, balancing technical setups with macro uncertainty. Technical Outlook Key Resistance: 4200 (psychological benchmark) Bullish Scenario: I’ll remain on the sidelines until we see a clean break above 4200. Once confirmed, I’ll engage long positions targeting 4219 as the next resistance zone. Bearish Scenario: Price action below 4176 could give sellers momentum, but I’ll avoid shorts unless 4164 is invalidated. If that happens, targets will be 4152 and 4135.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XAUBanker
3
Gold (XAU/USD) at a CrossroadsGold has been consolidating within a well-defined ascending channel on the 4H timeframe, following a strong rally from late October. Recent price action has formed a clear range between the previous weekly high and low, with intraday swings narrowing, a classic sign of compression before expansion. As the market awaits today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the technical and macro setups appear to be converging. On the 4-hour chart, gold continues to respect a broad upward channel, with a midline that has acted as a pivot zone. Current price action is hovering just above the channel midline and near the previous day high (PDH) and previous week low (PWL) levels, suggesting indecision. Key Zones to Watch: Support: 4,164–4,170 – Confluence of prior lows, minor Fibonacci zones 4,134 – Structural swing low; loss of this level could signal a deeper correction 4,040–4,050 – Historical demand zone and previous reaction area Resistance: 4,246–4,265 – PDH / PWH zone; the top of current range 4,381 – Channel upper bound and extended target if bullish continuation resumes Price has been trapped between ~4,170 and 4,265, forming a sideways structure or distribution phase. This type of price action often precedes large moves, the question is: which direction? Macro Context – Fed Expected to Cut, But Tone May Be Hawkish Today’s FOMC meeting is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut, marking a potential shift from the high-rate regime of the past 18 months. However, market attention is squarely focused on the tone of the Fed’s forward guidance. Several Fed officials have recently pushed back on aggressive easing expectations, signaling that even if a cut comes now, the path ahead may not be as dovish as markets hope. This sets the stage for what analysts call a “hawkish cut”, a rate reduction delivered with caution, and paired with messaging that suggests further cuts will be gradual or data-dependent. Implications for gold: -A hawkish tone may push U.S. yields and the dollar higher, applying pressure on gold -A dovish surprise (or less hawkish tone) could boost gold, as it benefits from lower yields and a weaker USD -The outcome could trigger significant short-term volatility, especially as gold is sitting near key technical levels Bullish Scenario: Fed cuts + dovish or neutral tone → yields fall, USD weakens Gold breaks above 4,265 and Upside targets: 4,320, 4,381, and possibly 4,400+ into early Q1 2026 Bearish Scenario: Fed cuts, but tone is hawkish → yields rise, USD strengthens Gold breaks below 4,164, then 4,134
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XAUBanker
2
BTC: flat chaos🧑‍💼Still dancing flat arround 90k.. Starting to think that this year it won't hit that 75k either shoot back up again. Zoom into H1 to see what I mean, total mess.. Trading is also in repeating patterns, any gain in any side few % up the goes back down same ammount and story repeats, no clear trend at all... 🤦‍♂️Anyone who hold longterm positions - its a game of nerves, one day you got mini breakthru, few hours later all collapses back. ⏸︎ In those condtions I just trading hedge, open both sides, take 100pip TP leave the other one it will turn into BE or even profit anyways.. Be careful and be patient guys!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by FxShareRobots
1
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we said we would look for the price to tap into the lower level where we wanted a bounce to then target the red box above. We managed to get that long into the defence level for it to give us a nice tap and bounce again giving the short and following the path into the lower defence box. It’s here that we faced the range but as you can see we failed to breach the box, hence giving us that opportunity to target that long into the active defence above again. We then mentioned we would protect and manage and see if there is another reaction or breach at that box, leading to price rejecting again following the range and completing all our targets as well as the hot spots for the week. A successful week in Camelot not only on Gold but also the other pairs we trade and analyse. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? For the start of the trading week we have two key levels to keep an eye on, 4175 support and 4210 resistance. These are the levels that need to be broken either side in order to make the next move, and could be the range we play for Monday as there is no economical catalyst to bring the extra volume into the market. For that reason, we’ll stick with the plan from last week, apart from looking for price to create that higher high before attempting the lower defence level. There is strong support here on the close so if we can get an undercut low here we can bounce into that 4210 level and above that 4220 which is the level that will need to hold! As long as we can stay below, we should see price attempt the lower levels initially starting with our target level 4180 and below that 4155. As you can see on our chart, our ideal long opportunity comes from the lower level which is also our potential target and a region we would like to see a RIP! The levels are on the chart as our the red boxes which have proven to be effective for swing and intra-day trading. RED BOXES: Break above 4210 for 4220, 4230, 4235 and 4240 in extension of the move Break below 4190 for 4180, 4173, 4165, 4155 and 4147 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
38
On the 9th Day of ETHmas...Continuation and a New H4 Demand ZoneOn the 9th Day of ETHmas, my true love gave to me....Continuation of what she has already given me...and a new H4 Demand Zone. Please refer to my previous posts on ETH over this past month or so to see how the market has been playing out EXACTLY as it should. Once again, we have been ignoring the world of Trump News, Microstrategy plans, and every other noisy gong of crypto crashes, tarrifs, etc. We have been focusing on SOLID Technical market structure that I follow and teach. ETH has been following this solid structure and we've endeavored to give you a preview of what to expect, and then followed up with how it actually played out. So what happed in the last few days?: At our last post, ETH was making its pullback to the last H4 Demand Zone. What seemed like another bloody murder episode to many was simply a pullback to gain stronger support for this move up. We had the expected pullback, along with a few strong wicks below this last H4 Demand Zone to take out over leveraged traders. But, when the dust settled, the H4 candle closed above this zone and never showed that we were going bearish again. So...where are we now?: Today, after a few days of consolidating around this H4 Demand Zone, we saw the break out above it and the continuation with the bullish move that started all of this (When we had the first H4 BOS UP on November 28, and the return to the H4 BOS Source on Dec 1). That was the Ultimate Buy Setup on ETH, and projected to take us up to the H4 Supply Source of ~ 3450-3560. So, today, we broke out and continued and are now heading to this zone. What to look for?: As we make our way up, there is still the older Daily Supply Zone (the one that caused the first pull back to the H4 Demand Zone). The top of that zone is ~ 3230. We have broken through that zone, but the top may still need to be retested before we keep pushing on. Also, there is a big Daily Supply Source sitting at (3355 - 3520). This overlaps our target area, so we need to watch the 15 min chart closely as we approach this area. Look for any BOS Down structure that would signal that this pullback is coming. Otherwise, we are on the way to 3450 - 3560, just as the plan has been since November 28. Happy Trading, and please leave me your comments. I would LOVE to hear what you all are thinking, hear any challenges or push backs on my analyses, or to just see if you have been following along.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by bigkid803
5
Here's why Bitcoin surged ahead of Thanksgiving The digital asset broke $90,000 on Wednesday afternoon, reflecting strong growth in stocks as well. What's driving Bitcoin's latest rally? Cypherpunks and bearded libertarians used to be the epitome of Bitcoin. But after the approval of the first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) last year, the new image is more likely that of Wall Street executives in navy suits. The ETF now holds over 1.5 million BTC, representing nearly 7.2% of the total supply. The next largest group of holders is publicly traded companies. This is key, as it likely explains why Bitcoin's $90,000 surge on Wednesday followed closely behind the stock market rally. I'm now watching to see if Bitcoin will break $100,000 again before Christmas! According to Newhedge, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 climbed to 0.87 on Wednesday. In other words, the two asset classes are actually moving in tandem. Therefore, as stocks rose ahead of Thanksgiving due to increased AI hype, Bitcoin followed suit. Oracle, a major cloud infrastructure player, led a surge in large-cap tech stocks after it struck a $300 billion deal with OpenAI in September. This was largely thanks to Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick, who highly praised the company's revenue potential from the arrangement. “OpenAI’s backlog of orders represents a solid return on investment business,” Zelnick wrote. “And validates Oracle’s leadership in large-scale deployment of AI cloud infrastructure.” Oracle rose 4%, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones rose 0.77%, 0.86%, and 0.80%, respectively. Bitcoin rose 4%, breaking $90,000 for the first time this week, catching Turkey Day. It needs to be clear that Bitcoin is not always closely correlated with stocks; it often diverges. But as institutional money flows into the ecosystem, the cryptocurrency will inevitably succumb to Wall Street and simply reflect the ups and downs of traditional markets. According to Coinmarketcap, Bitcoin rose 4.06% on the day, trading at $89,872.10 at the time of the report. Digital assets also rose 1.21% on the week, fluctuating between $86,171.48 and $90,389.93 in the past 24 hours. Daily trading volume was roughly flat at $65 billion, with a market capitalization of $1.79 trillion. Bitcoin's market dominance rebounded to 58.75%, an increase of 0.41%, as the cryptocurrency regained a small portion of market share from smaller cryptocurrencies. Coinglass data shows that total open interest in Bitcoin futures rose 2.24% to $60.52 billion, after falling to $59 billion on Tuesday. At the time of writing, liquidations remained slightly higher at $119 million. Short sellers saw $80.58 million in margin wiped out, while long investors were largely unaffected, with only $19.61 million liquidated.
Long
by dgfacpe
3
I Found a Pattern in $AI That Shouldn’t Exist. 45–46 (late 2026)I’ve been studying NYSE:AI ’s entire 2025 price cycle, and what I found is pretty interesting. The entire downtrend wasn’t random, it behaved like a damped harmonic oscillator. First drop: –28 Second drop: –15 Third drop: –7 Each decline was almost exactly 50% of the previous one. Same thing on the rallies: First up-leg: +13 Second: +5.4 That’s a 40% decay ratio. Time cycles also shrank consistently: 105 days → 32 days → projected 10 days Classic volatility compression. So mathematically, the trend was dying. The system was running out of downward energy And then it broke the model. The latest leg up exceeded the expected top meaning the damping phase is over. So I mirrored the entire pattern. Literally flipped it upside down If the downtrend behaved like a decaying oscillator, the reversal should behave like an expanding oscillator. The geometry lines up. The timings line up. The volume shelves line up. 🔴And the macro events of 2026 line up shockingly well. Projected upside levels from the mirrored structure: 20–21 (early 2026) 30–31 (mid-2026) 45–46 (late 2026) Macro lines up almost perfectly Fed regional presidents rotate in Feb–Mar 2026 → aligns with the first mirrored expansion leg. Powell’s Chair term ends May 15, 2026 → aligns with the mirrored pullback zone. Liquidity/Fed-independence fears in May–July → matches the mirrored corrective leg. Trump fiscal injections and systematic inflows start pricing in Aug–Sep → right where the final expansion leg begins. EOY liquidity rally in Nov → aligns with the mirrored top around 45. The decay phase and expansion phase line up with macro regime shifts almost perfectly. ⌛TL;DR NYSE:AI spent 2025 in a mathematically clean damped oscillator structure. That structure ended this month. The mirrored version of that same structure points to a multi-stage expansion cycle into 2026 with potential upside targets: 21 → 31 → 45 And the macro calendar supports the timing. Not a prediction. Not financial advice. Just a pattern that really, really shouldn’t be this clean....but is....
NYSE:AILong
by MerloClover-PugetPointCapital
15
AUDCAD Under Pressure! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for AUDCAD below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 0.9195 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 0.9182 Safe Stop Loss - 0.9202 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
5
Ethereum Wave Analysis – 9 December 2025- Ethereum broke daily down channel - Likely to rise to resistance level 3600.00 Ethereum cryptocurrency recently broke the resistance zone between the resistance level 3200.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 1) and the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from October. The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active impulse wave 3 of the sharp intermediate impulse wave (C) from November. Given the bullish sentiment seen across the crypto markets today, Ethereum cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 3600.00.
FXPRO:ETHUSDLong
by FxPro
1
Ethereum 4H Analysis — Likely to Rise Toward 3600Ethereum 4H Analysis — Likely to Rise Toward 3600. ETH just broke above the green bearish trendline, which means the previous bearish structure is now invalidated. Momentum flipped bullish the moment price closed above the trendline and held. Price is now sitting inside the yellow zones, which are acting as short-term resistance blocks. As long as ETH holds above 3320–3330, the market is showing strong signs of continuation. Why a rise to 3600 is likely: Trendline flip: Break + close above the green bearish trendline = bullish shift activated. Strong bullish wick and follow-through: Buyers aggressively defended the retest. Next liquidity cluster sits at 3490 → 3570. Once 3490 breaks, ETH has a clean path. No major resistance until 3572, then psychological extension into 3600. Bullish Path Hold above 3320 → Break 3331 → Push into 3449 → Break of 3449 opens fast continuation into 3570–3600. When this scenario is invalid A full 4H close back below 3220 cancels the bullish breakout and forces re-entry into the old bearish structure. Summary ETH successfully broke the bearish structure and is building bullish pressure. As long as price stays above the breakout zone (3320–3330), a move toward 3600 is the most likely scenario. — Avo.Trades.
TICKMILL:ETHUSD
by Avo-Trades
1
BTC – Trendline Retest Success | Momentum Reloading for Next LegBitcoin just completed a clean retest of its multi-year rising trendline, a structural level that has guided institutional accumulation since 2023. Price wicked below, tagged liquidity, and closed back above a classic bullish deviation → reclaim. This type of structure historically marks the end of corrective phases and the beginning of new expansions. 📌 Key Bullish Factors 1. Long-Term Trendline Respect Your chart shows a trendline starting from late 2023. Price tapped it perfectly and is now holding above $80,000–$82,000, confirming: Buyers stepped in where they were supposed to Smart money defended the bullish structure Heavy liquidation likely cleared weak longs 2. Weekly Candle Structure Turning The last 2–3 weekly candles show: Downward momentum slowing Smaller bodies Long wicks → buying from lower levels A potential swing low forming at the trendline Bitcoin is showing the early signs of seller exhaustion you typically see before a weekly reversal. --- 👉 The move tends to trap sellers before a strong leg up. --- 📈 Upside Targets (Weekly) If BTC continues holding above trendline: 1. $98,000 – $102,000 → First major liquidity pocket / inefficiency 2. $112,000 – $120,000 → Prior breakdown zone + weekly imbalance 3. $135,000 – $150,000 → Trend extension target / potential new ATH expansion These are not promises they are structural destinations based on the weekly map. --- ## **🔻 Downside Invalidation** The bullish thesis remains valid as long as Bitcoin doesn’t close a weekly candle below $80,000. Break + close below would open deeper retracement into mid-70Ks. But right now? The trendline holds strong. --- 🧠 Holistic Trader Insight Institutional players accumulate on weakness, not strength. When retail panics, smart money buys structure. This entire move fits the textbook rules: Trend intact Liquidity swept Structural level reclaimed Momentum slowing into support This is what early expansion phases look like.
Long
by ImmaculateTony
2
Bitcoin Holds 90,000 Ahead of FOMCMarket fear pushed Bitcoin expectations toward 50,000, yet the 80,000 support and Santa rally narrative are holding the ground ahead of tomorrow's FOMC outcome. Bitcoin is currently trading below the trendline connecting consecutive higher lows since November 2022, indicating a bearish bias unless price regains this barrier and the 110,000 resistance. A close above 110,000 would re-establish bullish momentum, opening the door toward the all-time record at 126,000, followed by new potential records near 137,000, 150,000, and 190,000–200,000, in alignment with the trendline connecting higher highs from March 2024 to December 2024. On the downside, a drop below 80,000 is expected to extend losses toward 70,000, and in more extreme cases, a drop below 70,000 could expose the 50,000-region. (Previous support zone between March and September 2024) - Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:BTCUSD
by FOREX.com
2