EURUSD Short: Fake Breakout at Supply, Pullback to 1.1850Hello traders! Here’s a clear technical breakdown of EURUSD (4H) based on the current chart structure. EURUSD initially traded within a well-defined ascending channel, confirming a strong bullish environment with consistent higher highs and higher lows. This phase reflected clear buyer control and healthy trend continuation. After reaching the upper boundary of the ascending channel, price lost momentum and transitioned into a descending corrective channel, signaling a temporary pullback rather than a full trend reversal. The corrective move remained orderly, with price respecting the descending structure and gradually compressing toward the lower boundary. At the lower edge of the descending channel, EURUSD formed a clear pivot point, where seller pressure weakened and buyers stepped back in aggressively. This led to a bullish breakout from the descending channel, confirming the end of the corrective phase. Following the breakout, price accelerated sharply higher, impulsively breaking above the key Demand Zone around 1.1850, which previously acted as resistance. This clean structure flip confirmed strong buyer commitment and renewed bullish momentum.
Currently, price then surged directly into the higher-timeframe Supply Zone around 1.2000–1.2050, where a fake breakout occurred. The rejection from this area suggests that sellers are active at the highs and that the market may be temporarily overextended after the strong impulse. Such behavior often leads to a corrective retracement rather than immediate continuation.
My primary scenario is a corrective pullback from the supply zone toward the 1.1850 Demand Zone (TP1). This level represents former resistance turned support and is a key area where buyers previously entered aggressively. As long as EURUSD holds above this demand zone, the broader bullish structure remains intact, and any pullback should be viewed as corrective within an overall uptrend. A strong bullish reaction and stabilization from the demand area could open the door for another attempt higher toward the supply zone and potentially new highs. However, a decisive breakdown and acceptance below the 1.1850 demand zone would weaken the bullish bias and increase the probability of a deeper correction. For now, the market favors buyers, with the current move best interpreted as a pullback after a strong impulsive rally. Manage your risk!
Community ideas
SPX500 H4 | Bullish ContinuationMomentum: Bullish
Price is currently above the ichimoku cloud.
Buy entry: 6,976.08
- Pullback support
- 23.6% Fib retracement
Stop Loss: 2,946.65
- Swing low support
Take Profit: 7,017.09
- Swing high resistance
High Risk Investment Warning
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AXSUSDT 10$ is not dream anymore simple to hit soon(Price: 2.5$)As previously forecasted, AXSUSDT has realized a strong advance from the $1.00 level, reaching approximately $2.50 at present. This move likely represents the initial phase of a broader bullish structure.
The next primary technical target is projected near the $10.00 zone, which would equate to a roughly 1000% appreciation from the original entry. Continued strength and a sustained breakout above current resistance would be necessary to maintain momentum toward this objective.
the 5$ resistance is major resistance now on chart above that market would be crazy.
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
<<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Bullish Continuation Toward Higher Highs🔍 Technical Analysis (H1):
Market Structure:
Gold remains in a strong bullish structure with clear higher highs & higher lows ✔️, firmly respecting the ascending trendline 📈.
Breakout & Momentum:
Multiple clean breakouts above previous resistance zones confirm strong buying pressure 💪. Each breakout is followed by healthy pullbacks, showing controlled bullish momentum.
POI → Pivot Support:
Previous POI zones have successfully flipped into support 🔄, and price is currently holding above the Pivot Point zone, which strengthens bullish continuation bias 🟢.
Current Price Action:
Price is consolidating above the pivot area, suggesting a brief pause before the next impulsive move higher ⏳➡️⬆️.
🎯 Upside Targets:
Target 1: 5,300 🎯
Target 2: 5,330 🎯🎯
Extended Target: 5,360+ 🚀 (if bullish momentum accelerates)
🛡️ Invalidation / Support to Watch:
Bullish bias remains valid as long as price holds above the Pivot Point zone. A break below may trigger a deeper pullback, not trend reversal ⚠️.
📌 Conclusion:
Overall trend is bullish, structure is healthy, and price action favors a continuation toward the marked target zone after minor consolidation 📦➡️🚀.
✨ Trade with the trend & manage risk wisely! 💼📊
USD/JPY DECISIVE MOMENTUSD/JPY DECISIVE MOMENT
The OANDA:USDJPY pair is at a crossroads as it hits previous local highs . This is a decisive point where the market could break out toward the 162.00 historical high or reverse as it did in early 2025 .
A reversal could lead price back to 150.00 or even 146.00 .
CHART PATTERNS
In the short term the price is forming a Rising Wedge marked in yellow. If the lower trendline breaks the market could head lower quickly. If the pattern holds and the Double Top is broken we may see a final sprint to 162.00 . Barring major news events the price should stabilize and return to lower levels before any new attempts at the highs.
*1H USD/JPY chart
OUTLOOK AND RISK
We must wait to see if the Double Top breaks to the upside or if the pattern fails and opens Pandora box. A breakdown would target 156.00 and 157.00 in the short term while the coming months could see a severe correction toward 148.00 .
Exercise caution with long positions because the risk reward is not favorable at these levels.
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🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again.
NZDCAD – Counter Trend Sell Idea NZDCAD – Counter Trend Sell Idea 📉
Looking at a counter trend sell on NZDCAD as the pair shows early signs of topping. Multiple factors suggest a short-term pullback.
Why I’m considering a sell:
• Price is struggling at key resistance 🛑
• Momentum appears to be slowing ⚡
• Confluence of previous highs and trendline resistance 🏦
Targets:
• Take Profit 1: 0.8100 ✅ (conservative)
• Take Profit 2: 0.8000 🔮 (speculative)
Call to Action:
Watch for a clean pullback to enter 👌
USDJPY is maintaining a strong bullish trend on the 15-MT📈USDJPY – Strong Bullish Breakout Setup 🟢🔥
USDJPY is maintaining a strong bullish trend on the 15-minute timeframe, with price breaking and holding above the key resistance area at 154.300. The breakout confirms buyer strength and opens the door for further upside continuation.
🔹 Breakout Level: 154.300
🔹 Buy Entry: 154.600
⏱ Timeframe: 15M
🎯 Technical Target:
• Target: 155.100
📊 Bullish structure remains intact with momentum favoring buyers.
⚠️ Use proper risk management & trading discipline.
📌 Trade smart, protect capital.
👍 Like | Follow | Comment | Share
#USDJPY #ForexTrading #BuyTrade #Bullish #Breakout #TechnicalAnalysis #15M #RiskManagement 💹
GOLD: Overbought But Still Bullish? Gold sits at $5,278.21, exactly where EMA50 and EMA200 converge. This isn't random; it's a critical decision point where neither bulls nor bears have control. We're technically overbought across the board, yet momentum remains intact. The market is at equilibrium, and equilibrium requires patience.
1. THE TECHNICAL REALITY 📉
• Price rejected at $5,298.26 (24h high) with strong lower wick (42.3%) showing buyer support
• Currently above Bollinger middle band ($5,103.12) but rejected from upper band at $5,295.97
• Holding above EMA20 ($5,109.86) is bullish, but sitting right at EMA50/200 confluence = no clear control
• Range: $62.99 (1.19%), standard gold volatility
2. THE INDICATORS ⚖️
Bearish Signals:
• RSI at 74.2 - overbought territory
• Stochastic at 89.6 - extreme overbought
• MFI maxed at 100.0 - maximum buying pressure
Bullish Signals:
• MACD still bullish (97.2 vs 84.2 signal)
• ADX at 39.3 - moderate trend strength intact
• Price structure holding above key EMAs
The Conflict:
Momentum indicators screaming "cool off" while trend indicators say "keep going." Equal buy/sell signals (2 each) with only 50% confidence, the definition of mixed signals.
3. THE TRADE SETUP 🎯
🔴 Scenario A: Overbought Rejection
• Trigger: Failure to reclaim $5,298.26
• Target: $5,235.27 (24h low support retest)
• Move: ~$43 or 0.8% pullback
• Invalidation: Break below $5,220.00 (confirms reversal, not pullback)
🟢 Scenario B: Breakout Continuation
• Trigger: Conviction break above $5,298.26
• Entry: Confirmation above resistance
• Target: $5,320.00 (psychological round number)
• Stop: Below $5,278.00 (EMA confluence)
MY VERDICT
Risk-reward isn't compelling at this pivot. If you're long from lower, consider profit-taking at resistance. If looking to enter, wait for either breakout confirmation above $5,298 or pullback to $5,235-$5,240 support zone. Gold respects levels cleanly, let it come to you rather than forcing trades at equilibrium.
Why Did Natural Gas Fall by 50 % in One Day ? - AnalysisWhat you’re seeing is not a real 50% collapse in natural gas prices, but a futures contract rollover effect. Natural gas trades in monthly contracts, and each month has its own price based on expected supply, demand, and especially weather risk. The February contract often carries a big premium in winter because of heating demand and cold-weather risks, while the March contract can trade much lower if those risks are expected to ease. When trading platforms switch from showing the expiring February contract to the March one, it can look like a massive price drop, but in reality, it’s just a shift from one contract to another with different fundamentals.
If you had an open position, you would not automatically lose 50% just because of this chart change. Your profit or loss is calculated based on the specific contract you traded (e.g., February gas), not the new one displayed. A large loss would only occur if your position was actually closed and reopened in the new contract at the lower price, which is a rollover transaction, not a market crash. So the dramatic percentage drop you see is mostly a visual effect of switching contracts, not natural gas suddenly becoming half as valuable.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Asset prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not a licensed financial advisor or professional trader. I am not personally liable for your own losses; this is not financial advice.
Field Brief: GSR and The Harvest MoonYesterday Gold and Silver both set new ATHs and set the GSR at 43.6.
In relative terms, this places silver in the 90th percentile of strength versus gold.
Historically, similar GSRs marked late-stage compression.
Across every instance after 2000 where the GSR compressed into the 40s or lower, the next year never stayed compressed.
The ratio reverted decisively, with avg expansion of the GSR the following year at 29% and aggressive expansions reaching 61%, placing the ratio between roughly 56 - 70.
In 1980, the GSR opened at 18.84, and closed the year at 39.74, for a 210% expansion.
On Silver that looked like opening the year $30, dropping to $11 and closing the year at $16.
Then it took nearly 3 decades for Silver to even touch $30 again.
Silver has outperformed aggressively, and positioning is overcrowded.
What comes next is harvest, not discovery.
It's 2026,
war is normalized, political dysfunction is the baseline, and crises are managed, monetized, and absorbed.
Gold is being accumulated quietly. Silver is being traded loudly.
Markets feel calm because they trust intervention.
That's conditional confidence
- and conditional confidence is fragile.
Geopolitical Tensions
Debt
Fragmentation
(trade blocs, friend-shoring replacing free trade, one GDP with different realities for asset owners vs wage earners)
Legitimacy Questions
(about Government, Money, Policy, Media)
But liquidity still flows, so markets prep instead of panic.
We are not in collapse but we are detaching from beliefs.
As I write this, GC closes the day with a new ATH at 5187, while SI closes on the sideline at 112. GSR now at 46.24.
Expansion has begun.
Go Sovereign.
XAUUSD (H1) – Liam Plan (Jan 27) Trend XAUUSD (H1) – Liam Plan (Jan 27)
Trend-following environment | Liquidity first, patience pays
Quick summary
Gold is still trending higher inside a clean rising channel, but price is now approaching a weak high / liquidity pocket where stop-runs are likely.
Macro backdrop adds fuel for volatility: reports suggest the US is pressuring Ukraine toward territorial concessions as part of peace talks — this kind of uncertainty often keeps safe-haven demand supported, but it can also create fast spikes + fake breaks.
➡️ Today’s rule: follow the uptrend, but only buy at liquidity test points. No chasing highs.
1) Macro context (why spikes are likely)
If markets start pricing a forced compromise in the Ukraine conflict:
risk sentiment can swing quickly,
headlines can trigger instant pumps, then sharp retraces.
✅ Safe approach: let price hit your zones first, then trade the reaction — not the headline.
2) Technical view (H1 – based on your chart)
Price is respecting an ascending channel and building liquidity around key levels.
Key levels (from the chart):
✅ Support / buy liquidity zone: 4,995 – 5,000
✅ Flip / reaction zone: 5,047
✅ Upper resistance / supply: 5,142
✅ Weak High / liquidity target: 5,192.6
✅ Extension target (1.618): 5,240.8
Bias stays bullish while inside the channel, but near 5,192–5,240 we should expect liquidity sweep → pullback behavior.
3) Trading scenarios (Liam style: trade the level)
A) BUY scenarios (priority – trend continuation)
A1. BUY the pullback into the flip zone (cleanest R:R)
✅ Buy: 5,045 – 5,050 (around 5,047)
Condition: hold + bullish reaction (HL / rejection / MSS on M15)
SL (guide): below 5,030 (or below the reaction low)
TP1: 5,085 – 5,100
TP2: 5,142
TP3: 5,192.6
Logic: This is the best “trend-following” entry — buy support, sell into liquidity above.
A2. BUY deep liquidity sweep (only if volatility hits)
✅ Buy: 4,995 – 5,000
Condition: sweep + strong reclaim (fast rejection / displacement up)
SL: below 4,980
TP: 5,047 → 5,142
Logic: This is the strongest liquidity test zone on your chart — ideal for a bounce if price flushes.
B) SELL scenarios (secondary – reaction scalps only)
B1. SELL the weak high sweep (tactical scalp)
✅ If price runs 5,192.6 and shows rejection:
Sell: 5,190 – 5,200
SL: above the sweep high
TP: 5,142 → 5,085
Logic: Weak highs often get swept first. Great for quick mean reversion back into the channel.
B2. SELL extension (highest-risk, but best location)
✅ Sell zone: 5,235 – 5,245 (around 5,240.8)
Only with clear weakness on M15–H1
TP: 5,192 → 5,142
Logic: 1.618 extension is a common exhaustion pocket — don’t short early, short the reaction.
4) Key notes
Don’t trade mid-range between 5,085–5,142 unless you’re scalping with tight rules.
Expect false breakouts near 5,192 and 5,240 during headlines.
Best execution today = buy support, take profits into liquidity.
Question:
Are you buying the 5,047 pullback, or waiting for the 5,192 sweep to sell the reaction?
— Liam
SILVER (XAG/USD): Confirmed Break of StructureThere is a confirmed bullish breakout of an important intraday structure BoS on SILVER.
This development suggests a potential for further growth and expansion.
The subsequent medium-term objective for buyers is anticipated to be the 118.00 resistance level.
Canadian Dollar vs. US Dollar. The Spring is CompressingIn previous posts, we have already begun to look at the key drivers of the US outperformance over the past decade.
The US market dominance has been largely driven by the rapid rise of tech giants (such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet), which have benefited from strong profit growth, global market reach and significant investor inflows.
Unsatisfactory International Performance
Markets outside the US have faced headwinds including multiple stifling sanctions and tariffs, slowing economic growth, political uncertainty (especially in Europe), a stronger US dollar and the declining influence of high-growth tech sectors.
The Valuation Gap. By 2025, US equities will be considered relatively expensive compared to their international peers, which may offer more attractive valuations in the future.
Recent Shifts (2025 Trend)
Since early 2025, international equities have begun to outperform the S&P 500, and European and Asian equities have regained investor interest. Global market currencies are also widely dominated by the US dollar.
Factors include optimism around the following three big themes.
DE-DOLLARIZATION. DE-AMERICANIZATION. DIVERSIFICATION.
De-dollarization is the process by which countries reduce their reliance on the US dollar (USD) as the world's dominant reserve currency, medium of exchange, and unit of account in international trade and finance. This trend implies a shift away from the central role of the US dollar in global economic transactions to alternative currencies, assets, or financial systems.
Historical context and significance of the US dollar
The US dollar became the world's primary reserve currency after World War II, as enshrined in the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. This system pegged other currencies to the dollar, which was convertible into gold, making the dollar the backbone of international finance. The United States became the world's leading economic power, and the dollar replaced the British pound sterling as the dominant currency for global trade and reserves.
The dollar has been the most widely held reserve currency for decades. As of the end of 2024, it still accounts for about 57% of global foreign exchange reserves, far more than the euro (20%) and the Japanese yen (6%). However, this share has fallen from over 70% in 2001, signaling a gradual shift and prompting discussions about de-dollarization.
How De-Dollarization Works
Countries looking to reduce their reliance on the dollar are pursuing several strategies:
Diversifying reserves: Central banks are holding fewer U.S. dollars and increasing their holdings of other currencies, such as the euro, yen, British pound, or new alternatives such as the Chinese yuan. While the yuan's share remains small (about 2.2%), it has grown, especially among countries like Russia.
Using alternative currencies in trade: Countries are entering into bilateral or regional agreements to conduct trade in their own currencies rather than using the dollar as an intermediary. For example, China has introduced yuan-denominated oil futures (the "petroyuan") to challenge the petrodollar system.
Increasing gold reserves: Many countries, including China, Russia and India, have significantly increased their purchases of gold as a safer reserve asset, reducing their dollar holdings.
Developing alternative financial systems: Some countries and blocs, such as BRICS, are working to develop alternatives to the US-dominated SWIFT payment system to avoid the risk of sanctions and gain true economic and political independence.
Reasons for de-dollarization
The move towards de-dollarization is driven by geopolitical and economic factors:
Backlash against US economic hegemony: The US often uses dollar dominance to impose sanctions and exert political pressure, encouraging countries to seek financial sovereignty.
Rise of new economic powers: Emerging economies like China and groups like the BRICS are seeking to reduce their vulnerability to U.S. influence and promote regional integration and alternative financial infrastructures.
Geopolitical tensions: Conflicts like the war in Ukraine have intensified efforts by countries like Russia to remove the dollar from their reserves to avoid sanctions.
Implications and outlook
While the dollar remains dominant, a more de-dollarized world is already changing global economic power. The U.S. may lose some advantages, such as lower borrowing costs and geopolitical influence. For the U.S. economy, de-dollarization could lead to a weaker currency, higher interest rates, and reduced foreign investment, although some effects, such as inflation from a weaker dollar, could belimited .
For other countries, de-dollarization could mean greater economic independence and less exposure to U.S. policy risks. However, no currency currently matches the dollar’s liquidity, stability, and global recognition, so a full transition is unlikely in the near future .
Summary
De-dollarization is a complex, ongoing process that reflects a gradual shift away from the global dominance of the U.S. dollar. It involves diversifying reserves, using alternative currencies and assets, and creating new financial systems to reduce dependence on the dollar.
Driven by geopolitical tensions and the rise of emerging economic powers, de-dollarization challenges the entrenched role of the dollar but is unlikely to completely replace it anytime soon.
Instead, it is leading to a more multipolar monetary system in international finance, increasing demand for alternative investments to the U.S.
Technical task
The main technical chart is presented in a quarterly breakdown, reflecting the dynamics of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar
CADUSD in the long term.
With the continued positive momentum of the relative strength indicator RSI(14), flat support near the level of 0.70 and a decreasing resistance level (descending top/ flat bottom) in case of a breakout represent the possibility of price growth to 0.80, with the prospect of parity in the currency pair and strengthening of the Canadian dollar to all-time highs, in the horizon of the next five years.
--
Best wishes,
Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
What Is Market DNA Philosophy________________________________________
The Philosophy of Market DNA
Market DNA is not founded on the assumption that markets are predictable.
It is founded on the principle that markets possess an internal, living, and observable structure that exists prior to interpretation, narrative, or explanation.
In this view, the market is neither a collection of random reactions nor merely the outcome of news, sentiment, or historical data.
The market is an active field in which price, time, and structure operate simultaneously and interdependently.
________________________________________
Price as an Active Element of the Field
In Market DNA, price is not a signal to be interpreted.
Price is an active element of the field.
Price behaves analogously to mass: through its movement, it
• generates field effects,
• influences the distribution of reactions across time, and
• shapes future market behavior.
What is observed in the future is not an isolated or random event,
but the consequence of ongoing price movement—
movements whose effects are encoded within the current market structure
as a structural gene.
Market DNA does not attempt to predict the future.
It demonstrates how the effects of present movement
are stored, preserved, and rendered measurable within market structure.
________________________________________
The Structural Gene: Memory and Measurement
From the perspective of Market DNA, markets do not possess memory in a narrative or statistical sense.
They possess structural memory.
Price movements are not erased, neutralized, or forgotten.
Their effects persist within the field
in the form of a structural gene.
This gene is not merely a trace or descriptive artifact.
It has a usable geometric structure—
a structure that can function as a reference scale
for measuring and evaluating:
• field intensity,
• time curvature,
• degrees of uncertainty, and
• states of structural imbalance.
In this sense, the structural gene is not only a carrier of market memory,
but also the instrument by which that memory is measured.
________________________________________
Simplifying the Field: Geometry as a Language of Observation
The market field is inherently complex, continuous, and multi-layered.
Market DNA seeks to make this complexity readable to the observer
by mapping field behavior onto a limited set of fundamental geometric structures.
These forms do not describe what the market is.
They are tools for observation and measurement.
For this purpose, Market DNA employs four geometric structures:
three triangles and one trapezoid—
each serving a distinct observational role.
________________________________________
Roles of the Geometric Structures
Triangles 1 and 2
Represent coefficients of time curvature.
They express how market responses are compressed or stretched in time
and how the temporal distribution of price behavior changes.
Triangle 3
Represents risk as a stored field quantity.
Here, risk is not treated as a post-event metric,
but as an accumulated component of the field
that may become active under specific conditions.
The Trapezoid
Is depicted as the zone of uncertainty emergence—
a region in which
• prior certainties weaken,
• the number of viable paths increases, and
• field interaction reaches its highest intensity.
The trapezoid is not a decision point.
It is where the nature of uncertainty becomes visible.
________________________________________
Risk as an Input, Not an Outcome
In most approaches, risk is something measured or justified
after a decision has been made.
In Market DNA, risk is defined before any interaction with the market.
Risk is independent of
• emotion,
• narrative, and
• outcome.
The objective is not to eliminate uncertainty,
but to achieve engineered coexistence with it.
Within this framework, decisions are not extracted from market reactions,
but arise from a predefined structure of interaction with the field.
________________________________________
News, Collective Awareness, and Structural Actualization
Economic, financial, and even political events—
along with prevailing market narratives—
undeniably exist and contribute to the formation of collective awareness.
In Market DNA, such events are not the primary cause of market structure.
They may, however, act as activators of certainties
that already exist in latent form within the field.
News does not create structure.
It may reveal it.
________________________________________
Phases: Field States, Not Time Paths
A Phase in Market DNA is not a chronological sequence
nor a projected trajectory.
A Phase is a label describing the state of the field
relative to a defined structure.
As a result:
• phases do not necessarily occur in temporal order,
• Phase 3 may appear before Phase 2, and
• this is not an error, but a property of the field itself.
Phases describe the condition the market is in,
not where it is expected to go.
________________________________________
The Role of the Human Observer
Within the philosophy of Market DNA, the human is neither the creator of market order nor its interpreter.
The human seeks to
• understand the market’s overarching structure,
• coexist with uncertainty through predefined risk, and
• record the interaction between price, time, and structure.
The human role is observation and alignment,
not intervention, prediction, or correction.
________________________________________
Capital Efficiency in Structural Imbalance
Market DNA does not attempt to control the market.
Its objective is to enhance capital efficiency
through informed entry into zones of structural imbalance—
where field activity intensifies
and structural genes exert their greatest influence.
________________________________________
The Ultimate Objective
Market DNA does not attempt to guess the future.
It seeks to make the human–market relationship
livable, measurable, and documentable.
Regardless of the path the market takes:
• the maximum risk is known in advance,
• decisions are already defined, and
• reaction never replaces structure.
________________________________________
Philosophical Summary
Market DNA is not about predicting the future.
It is about understanding structure, measuring the field,
and engineering coexistence with uncertainty.
Or, more succinctly:
Market DNA does not predict markets.
It measures their structure and documents interaction with them.
AUDNZD: Bullish TrendAUDUSD is positioned in ascending channel of support and resistance, moving on a momentum upward rise. in regards to the structure, we can spot the price heading down gradually to the higher support, as we anticipate retracement around this zone.
Possible scenario:
A confirmed reversal above the support, activates a long move eyeing 1.1660 as target.
Thanks for reading.
BTC/USD – 4H Bearish Continuation SetupPrice remains under strong bearish pressure after the impulsive sell-off. The current bounce appears corrective and is facing rejection below key dynamic resistance.
Bearish confluences:
Price holding below VWAP / mid-band → sellers remain in control
Lower highs & lower lows intact on the 4H structure
Pullback rejected within the 38.2–61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone
Volatility bands sloping downward → trend continuation bias
Weak bullish momentum with no meaningful volume expansion
Fib downside targets:
🎯 Target 1: 38.2% → ~85,800
🎯 Target 2: 61.8% → ~84,650
🎯 Target 3: 100% → ~84,200
Bearish bias remains valid below resistance. Invalidation if price reclaims VWAP and the prior pullback high with strength.
XAUUSD 15M – Bullish Channel Continuation SetupKey Levels
Support Zone: 5,218 – 5,220 (marked support level)
Entry Area: ~5,219.275 (nice discounted buy zone)
Resistance / Target: 5,286 – 5,289
Channel Midline: acting as dynamic support (price respected it well)
📈 Trade Idea (Bullish Continuation)
Bias: Buy the dip
Entry: 5,218 – 5,222
SL: Below 5,205 (clean structure break)
TP1: 5,258
TP2: 5,286 – 5,289
RR: Very solid (≈ 1:2.5 to 1:3)
🧠 What to Watch
Strong bullish candle or rejection wick from support = confirmation
If price closes below support, wait → no chasing
Break & hold above 5,260 = momentum continuation toward highs
⚠️ Invalidation
15M close below 5,205
Channel breakdown + strong bearish volume
📌 Summary
Trend is bullish, pullback is technical, setup favors continuation to the upside as long as support holds.
The Setup: Patience is the Edge
Most traders will chase this breakout. I am waiting for the trap. The chart shows a textbook liquidity grab before a projected deep retracement. We are seeing a strong impulse, but the momentum is reaching a local ceiling.
Technical Breakdown
Trend Status: We are on bar 4 of a confirmed "Trend Up" cycle with a probable length of 18 bars. The macro momentum is in our favor, but the immediate move is overextended.
Momentum Warning: The SMI is sitting at 88.51. This confirms intense buying pressure but warns that the "rubber band" is stretched. A snapback is coming.
The Target Zone: I am watching the 0.70130 resistance. A rejection there validates the move into our green demand zone.
The Buy Zone: The high-signal entry sits between 0.68752 and 0.69279. This is where the smart money re-accumulates after flushing out late-to-the-party longs.
Execution Strategy
Avoid the FOMO: Don't buy at the tip of the yellow arrow.
Monitor the Retracement: Watch for price to descend into the green box with decreasing volatility.
Confirm the Bounce: Look for the DMI green line to maintain its lead as price hits demand.
Target the Expansion: Once the correction is complete, the path to new highs is clear.
The Market Encouragement: Success in this move isn't about being fast; it’s about being positioned. If you have the discipline to wait for the market to come to your price, you've already won half the battle. Let the impulsive traders provide the liquidity. You provide the execution.
Intentionality beats activity every single time. Stick to the zone.






















