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ETH ANALYSIS – 1h📊 ETH ANALYSIS – 1h 🔥 1. Key Fact on the Chart We have a very strong upward impulse that: Breaked the upper band of the descending channel (blue) Touched the upper line of the ascending channel (orange) Was immediately rejected (long wick) The MACD shows extreme overbought + potential divergence in the making Such a move usually indicates a short squeeze + profit-taking → i.e., a temporary weakening and a retest of the breakout. 🎯 2. Price areas I see on your chart Green (resistance/TP for longs): 3479–3490 – structural highs, strong resistance 3420 – local resistance 3375 – first real resistance after the breakout Red (support/defense levels of the structure): 3338–3348 – first test zone after the breakout 3293 – key level — sustain = trend continuation 3180–3200 – consolidation zone broken (likely retest) 📉 3. What does the current wick mean? This giant wick signals: short liquidations lack of demand for a continuation after the first resistance breakout high probability of a return to the range possibility of a retest of the breakout (around 3185–3210) This doesn't look like a classic breakout with a continuation, but rather a fakeout and the need for a correction. 📈 4. Scenarios ➡️ Bullish (more likely if 3293 holds) Price falls to the 3338–3293 zone Builds a local HH/HL Starts a move to 3375, then 3420 If 3420 breaks → target 3480–3500 ➡️ Bearish (if price loses 3293) Retest from the bottom of 3293 Return to the blue channel Target: 3185–3200 If this level breaks → 3050–3080 (lower band of the channel) 📟 5. MACD MACD is: extremely stretched signal line begins to collapse histogram decreases after Explosion → This almost always means a local intraday high + a drop to support.
by cryptodailyuk
1
Bullish ETH for 2026we enter a supercycle, after we watch fed meeting the path is clear. there is no more hawkish, there is more cuts on 2026, we also have Kevin Hassett to make sure everything will goes as Trump's plan. 165k-200k BTC is very possible , 9K-12k ETH is very possible, and 900-1200 SOL is likely the output. Keep stack and buy more. there is only one chance to see this price is only on 2025, there is no cheap BTC ETH SOL in the future. buy as much as you can on SPOT , not in futures market. Good luck i hope to see you in 2026
KRAKEN:ETHUSDLong
by LaurentWilvyne
2
How to Make 18% in a Week: RSS3 Reversal Trading Across 4 MarketHow to Make 18% in a Week: RSS3 Reversal Trading Across 4 Markets On November 27, Bitcoin was trading at $91,400. Classic overbought indicators were flashing red, but timing the entry was the million-dollar question. When exactly to short? And more importantly—when to exit? Four days later, price crashed to $83,800 (-8.3%). Then two days after that, it rallied to $93,600 (+10.1% from the bottom). Full cycle result: +18.4% in one week . Both entries and both exits were marked by a single indicator. This article demonstrates real trades across four different markets—crypto, US stocks, forex, and index futures—with exact dates, prices, and percentages. All examples from November 2025, all data-verified. 🔗 Free indicator: RSS3 - Reversal Score System v3 ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ THE DIVERGENCE PROBLEM You've likely experienced this: • RSI shows divergence, you enter—price moves against you another 5% • MACD signals "perfect" setup—you hit stop-loss two hours later • Counter-trend divergence works 1 out of 5 times Three critical issues: 1. All divergences look identical —but one leads to 10% reversal, another to 1% 2. No trend filter —divergences against strong momentum often fail 3. Subjectivity —which pivot to use? What lookback period? RSS3 (Reversal Score System v3) solves these by adding numerical strength scoring from -1 to +1 and multi-timeframe filtering . ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ HOW RSS3 WORKS—SIMPLIFIED No formulas. Three key concepts: 1. Final Score shows reversal strength: • Score < -0.5 → bullish zone (potential upside) • Score > +0.5 → bearish zone (potential downside) • Closer to ±1.0 = stronger signal 2. Automatic divergences marked with triangles: • Green below price = bullish • Red above price = bearish • Lime/Maroon = double confirmation (both VPI+TDFI) 3. MTF filter protects against counter-trend entries: • Gray triangles = filtered signals • "Reduce" mode—weakens counter-trend divergences • "Block" mode—hides them completely Now let's see it in action. ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ CASE 1: CRYPTO SWING—BITCOIN FULL CYCLE Asset: BTC/USDT (Binance) Timeframe: 2 hours Period: November 27 - December 3, 2025 Double Bearish Divergence—Short Entry November 27 brought two bearish divergences within 10 hours on BTC: Divergence 1: Nov 27, 09:00 Price: $91,408 Score: 0.537 (above 0.5 threshold = extreme) Entry: $91,372 (+2 bars delay) Divergence 2: Nov 27, 19:00 Price: $91,479 Score: 0.188 Entry: $91,417 Double divergence = amplified signal. Both pointed to bearish reversal. Price dropped to $83,823 by December 1. Short Result: 8.26-8.31% profit (~8.3% average) in 4.5 days ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Extreme Bullish Signal—Long Entry December 1, 17:00—at the same $83,823 low, a bullish divergence appeared with Score -0.885 : Signal: Dec 1, 17:00 Price: $84,678 Score: -0.885 (near theoretical minimum -1.0!) This is an exceptionally strong bullish signal —Score in the bottom 5% of all values for the period. After entry at $85,025, price rallied to bearish divergence on Dec 3: Entry: $85,025 (Dec 1, 21:00) Exit: $93,643 (Dec 3, 07:00, bearish divergence) Score: 0.592 (bearish zone) Profit: 10.14% ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── BTC Statistics: Period: Nov 27 - Dec 3 (7 days) Price range: $83,823 - $93,959 Score range: -1.000 to +0.647 Total divergences: 6 (1 bullish, 5 bearish) Short: ~8.3% Long: +10.1% ════════════════ TOTAL: ~18.4% 🚀 Key insight: Score -0.885 on bullish divergence was the lowest value for the entire analysis period, confirming reversal strength. ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ CASE 2: TECH STOCKS—NVIDIA EXTREME SCORE ENTRY Asset: NVDA (NASDAQ) Timeframe: 15 minutes Period: November 20-21, 2025 Score-Based Entry WITHOUT Divergence Unlike traditional setups, this trade demonstrates entering on extreme Score alone —no divergence required. Nov 20, 17:30—Score hits 1.000 (theoretical maximum bearish pressure): Entry signal: Score = 1.000 Entry price: $194.23 Date: Nov 20, 17:30 This showcases RSS3's dual functionality: divergence-based reversals AND pure momentum exhaustion signals. ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Two Exit Strategies Option A: Divergence Signal (Conservative) Exit: Bullish divergence same day Time: Nov 20, 22:00 (4.5 hours later) Price: $181.73 Score: -0.177 Profit: 6.44% Option B: Opposite Extreme Score (Aggressive) Exit: Strong bullish Score next day Time: Nov 21, 18:30 (25 hours later) Price: $175.14 Score: -0.873 (strong bullish signal) Profit: 9.83% Maximum potential: $169.56 reached on Nov 25 (12.70%) ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Key Takeaway: Entry on Score = 1.000 demonstrates that RSS3 works as both: 1. Divergence detector (traditional) 2. Overbought/oversold extremes indicator (alternative) No need to wait for pivot confirmation when Score hits absolute limits. ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ CASE 3: FOREX PRECISION—GBP/USD SWING Asset: GBP/USD Timeframe: 30 minutes Period: November 17-19, 2025 Classic Divergence Setup Nov 17, 15:00—Bearish divergence with solid Score: Signal: Nov 17, 15:00 Price: 1.31870 Score: 0.663 (strong bearish zone) Entry: 1.31845 (+2 bars, 16:00) Nov 19, 22:30—Bullish divergence signals exit: Exit: 1.30458 Score: -0.900 (extreme bullish signal, near -1.0!) Profit: 1.05% Pips: 139 Duration: 54.5 hours (~2.3 days) ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Forex-Specific Advantages: 1️⃣ Conservative but Consistent - 1% in 2 days = ~180% annualized (if repeatable) - Low risk, steady returns 2️⃣ Perfect Entry/Exit Symmetry - Entry Score: +0.663 (bearish extreme) - Exit Score: -0.900 (bullish extreme) - Mirror-image reversal pattern 3️⃣ Double Divergence Confirmation - Entry: Bearish divergence - Exit: Bullish divergence - No guesswork 4️⃣ Ideal Timeframe for Part-Time Trading - 30M filters noise but stays responsive - Suitable for traders with day jobs Exit Score of -0.900 was near the period's minimum, providing high-confidence reversal confirmation. ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ CASE 4: INDEX FUTURES—E-MINI S&P 500 WITH LEVERAGE Asset: E-mini S&P 500 (ES) Timeframe: 4 hours Period: November 20-26, 2025 Institutional-Grade Swing Trade Nov 20, 22:00—Bullish divergence on higher timeframe: Signal: Nov 20, 22:00 Price: 6552.00 points Score: -0.761 (strong bullish) Entry: 6577.00 (+2 bars / 8 hours, Nov 21 06:00) Nov 26, 18:00—Bearish divergence signals exit: Exit: 6833.00 points Score: 0.385 (bearish zone) Points: 256.00 Profit: 3.89% Duration: 132 hours (~5.5 days) ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Leverage Advantage: E-mini S&P 500 contract specifications: • Multiplier: $50 per point • Typical margin: ~$14,000 per contract • Contract value: ~$328,850 Profit Calculation: Spot profit: 3.89% Points gained: 256.00 Per contract: 256 × $50 = $12,800 ROI on margin: $12,800 / $14,000 = 91.4%! With 2 contracts: $25,600 With 5 contracts: $64,000 ⚠️ Risk Note: Leverage amplifies both gains AND losses. Always use proper position sizing and risk management! ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 4H Timeframe Benefits: 1️⃣ Institutional-Quality Signals - Filters intraday noise - Perfect for swing traders and fund managers 2️⃣ Work-Life Balance - Only 6 bars per day - Can be monitored part-time 3️⃣ Capital Efficiency - 3.89% spot → 91.4% ROI on margin - Professional-grade risk/reward 4️⃣ Tax Advantages - 60/40 tax treatment in US - Lower spreads vs cash index ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS All four trades shared common patterns while demonstrating versatility: 1. Double Divergences Increase Reliability BTC showed two bearish divergences within 10 hours—both delivered. 2. Extreme Scores Predict Strong Moves • BTC Score -0.885 → +10.1% rally • NVDA Score 1.000 → 6-10% drop • GBP Score -0.900 → reversal confirmation 3. Reversal Divergences = Perfect Pivot Points All exits occurred at opposite divergences, capturing full swings. 4. Works Across All Market Types From 15M daytrading (NVDA) to 4H swing (ES), signals remained consistent. ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Performance Summary: Asset Market TF Strategy Profit Duration Special BTC/USDT Crypto 2H Double Div ~18.4% 7d Full cycle NVDA Stocks 15M Score 1.0 6.4-9.8% 4-25h No div entry GBP/USD Forex 30M Divergence 1.05% 2.3d Conservative E-mini S&P 500 Futures 4H Divergence 3.89% 5.5d 91% ROI leverage Win Rate: 100% (5 out of 5 trades) ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ PRACTICAL TRADING GUIDE Basic Reversal Strategy: Entry: 1. Wait for divergence (green/red triangle on chart) 2. Check Score: |Score| > 0.5 strengthens signal 3. Score near ±1.0 = extreme reversal zone 4. Enter +2 bars after divergence (accounts for pivot delay) Exit: • Conservative: opposite divergence • Aggressive: Score crosses opposite threshold (±0.5) • Stop-loss: ATR × 2-3 from entry ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Settings for Different Styles: Scalping/Intraday (5-15M): Pivot Lookback: 2 (aggressive) Cloud Mode: Gradient MTF: off or 1H Swing Trading (1H-4H): Pivot Lookback: 3 (balanced) Cloud Mode: Threshold MTF: on, 4H-D, Reduce mode Position Trading (Daily): Pivot Lookback: 5 (conservative) MTF: on, Weekly, Block mode ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── When NOT to Trade Divergences: • Tight range: Score oscillates within ±0.2 • Low volatility: clouds don't form or are very weak • Against strong trend without MTF: gray triangles = filtered signals ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Combining with Other Tools: RSS3 is a confirmation tool , not a standalone system: • Use support/resistance levels for targets • Confirm with volume (OBV, CVD) for reversal strength • Consider fundamentals during news events • Apply risk management: max 2-3% capital per trade ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ CONCLUSIONS Analysis of four different assets during November 2025 demonstrated RSS3's effectiveness across markets and timeframes: ✅ High Returns: 18.4% on BTC in one week via full cycle ✅ Consistency: 100% win rate across all four trades ✅ Versatility: 15M to 4H timeframes, all asset classes ✅ Leverage Efficiency: 91.4% ROI on E-mini futures margin Key advantages over classic divergences: 1. Quantitative strength scoring: Score -1 to +1 vs binary yes/no 2. Automation: no manual pivot hunting 3. MTF context: filters counter-trend signals 4. Adaptive clouds: visualizes pressure accumulation zones Alternative entry methods demonstrated: • Traditional: divergence-based (BTC, GBP, ES) • Modern: pure Score extremes (NVDA) • Both work with appropriate risk management The indicator is free and can serve as either a complementary filter to your existing system or the foundation for a complete reversal trading strategy. 🔗 Download RSS3: Get it on TradingView ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ DISCLAIMER This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Users are solely responsible for their own trading decisions and should conduct independent research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author assumes no liability for any losses incurred through the use of this information.
by rulphru
1
BITCOIN → False breakout of resistance on a downtrend BINANCE:BTCUSDT is consolidating in the range of 86K - 92K, bears are holding resistance amid a global downtrend, traders lack drivers... Fundamentally, sentiment in the crypto market is weak, and there is increasing talk of a crypto winter, especially among companies that previously actively bought cryptocurrencies for their balance sheets. There is no bullish driver at the moment. Bitcoin is in a neutral state, with the market holding the price below 93K. The fundamental background is unstable, and technically, the market is in a downtrend. A reversal pattern is forming relative to 92K, and a retest and false breakout of the zone of interest could trigger a decline to the support range. Locally, we are seeing an upward channel, but this is a correction against the backdrop of the global trend. If the bears keep the price below 92K, the decline may continue. However, a breakout of 94K and a close above that level could trigger an upward momentum... Resistance levels: 91850, 92700, 93700 Support levels: 88000, 86300 A false breakout and price consolidation in the short zone could cause further sell-offs towards the areas of interest located at the bottom of the trading range. Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
9
Crude Oil Price Update – Clean & Clear ExplanationCrude Oil highlighting how the market has shifted from a previously rising trend into a phase of weakness. Earlier, the price followed an upward sloping trendline, reflecting steady buying strength, but eventually the price broke below that trendline, signalling the start of a broader correction. Since then, the chart has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, showing the transition from bullish momentum to a more bearish structure. Several supply and demand zones are clearly marked on the chart with shaded regions. These zones help identify where buying or selling pressure is strongest. The upper zone near 425–430 represents a major supply area where sellers have previously stepped in and pushed the price down multiple times. Just below it, the 416–420 region shows another resistance area that reinforces the overhead selling pressure. On the downside, the price is currently trading around the 401 level, where it is testing a mid-level demand zone. The chart shows projected arrows indicating the possibility of the price dipping deeper into the broader demand area around 384–390. This zone has historically acted as a strong support, where buyers could attempt to defend the price again. The highlighted risk-to-reward box suggests a potential short setup, where traders might expect further downside movement until the price reaches the lower support zone. However, there is also a secondary upward arrow indicating that if the price finds strong support, it may bounce back toward the mid-range resistance near 416, before facing sellers again. Overall, the chart represents a long-term picture of price correction inside a well-defined supply and demand structure, where the market is currently showing bearish momentum but may find stability and buyers closer to the lower demand zones. The structure reflects how the market is balancing between downward pressure and potential reversal zones, giving a clear roadmap of key levels for future movement. If you find it helpful please like and comments for this post and share thanks.
NSE:OILShort
by Pintu_sahu01
2
Gold (XAU/USD) – Range Consolidation with Bullish Upside Target1. Market Structure Range → Attempted Breakout: Price has been moving in a broad consolidation / rising channel, with multiple rejections near the upper boundary. Higher Lows, Weak Highs: Buyers are defending higher lows, but sellers are still strong near resistance → this is compression, not a confirmed trend. Bias: Neutral-to-bullish only if support holds. --- 2. Key Levels (Very Important) 🔴 Support Zone (Red Area) 4,170 – 4,163 This is a major demand zone. Multiple candle wicks show aggressive buying here. If this zone fails → structure breaks bearish. ✅ As long as price stays above 4,163, longs are still valid. --- ⚪ Current Price Area Around 4,190–4,200 Price is sitting mid-range → not ideal for new entries unless confirmation appears. --- 🔵 Resistance / Target Zone 4,250 – 4,260 Clear range high + prior rejection zone Marked as your TARGET POINT, which technically makes sense. 🚨 Expect selling pressure here on first touch. --- 3. Trade Idea Implied by the Chart Bullish Scenario (Preferred) Entry: Rejection + bullish candle close above 4,170–4,180 Stop Loss: Below 4,160 Target: 4,250–4,260 ✅ Risk–reward is solid only if entry is near support. --- Bearish Scenario (Invalidation) A strong 3H close below 4,160 That would: Break the demand zone Flip structure bearish Open downside toward 4,120–4,100 --- 4. What I’d Watch Next (Discipline Check) ✅ Bullish engulfing / strong rejection at support → okay to long ❌ Chasing price in the middle of the range → poor trade 🚨 Fake break above 4,250 without volume → likely reversal --- Bottom Line This is a range-based long setup, not a breakout yet. Best trades are patience trades here.
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by Moriss365
1
Ethereum 4H Analysis — Likely to Rise Toward 3600Ethereum 4H Analysis — Likely to Rise Toward 3600. ETH just broke above the green bearish trendline, which means the previous bearish structure is now invalidated. Momentum flipped bullish the moment price closed above the trendline and held. Price is now sitting inside the yellow zones, which are acting as short-term resistance blocks. As long as ETH holds above 3320–3330, the market is showing strong signs of continuation. Why a rise to 3600 is likely: Trendline flip: Break + close above the green bearish trendline = bullish shift activated. Strong bullish wick and follow-through: Buyers aggressively defended the retest. Next liquidity cluster sits at 3490 → 3570. Once 3490 breaks, ETH has a clean path. No major resistance until 3572, then psychological extension into 3600. Bullish Path Hold above 3320 → Break 3331 → Push into 3449 → Break of 3449 opens fast continuation into 3570–3600. When this scenario is invalid A full 4H close back below 3220 cancels the bullish breakout and forces re-entry into the old bearish structure. Summary ETH successfully broke the bearish structure and is building bullish pressure. As long as price stays above the breakout zone (3320–3330), a move toward 3600 is the most likely scenario. — Avo.Trades.
TICKMILL:ETHUSD
by Avo-Trades
1
Gold: Watching the Support Zone for a Bullish Rebound Toward 4,2Gold: Watching the Support Zone for a Bullish Rebound Toward 4,255 and 4,290 Gold continues to trade within a broad consolidation, but the structure overall remains bullish. This area near 4180 has acted as support multiple times, showing strong buyer interest. If price stabilizes here again and buyers step in, GOLD could attempt another push higher. The first area to watch is the Quick Target at 4,255, where previous reactions occurred. A clean break above this level could open the way toward the main target at 4,290, completing a healthy bullish continuation. However, a daily candle closing below the support zone would weaken the bullish structure and delay the upside scenario. Key Levels: • Support: 4,164 – 4,180 • Quick Target: 4,255 • Main Target: 4,290 You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
FX:XAUUSDLong
by KlejdiCuni
19
BTC CME: Key Level Retest and Liquidity SweepBTC CME demonstrated strong growth today on increased volume, reaching last week’s highs and sweeping liquidity. Currently, the asset is trading directly inside last week’s high zone. I’m waiting for today’s daily close to define the next direction. Bullish scenario: Daily close above the level with confirmation. Neutral scenario: Daily close below the level and continued trading under it keeps the outlook at 50/50. Market structure at this level remains critical — the daily close will set the tone.
CME:BTC1!
by GrandMaster_Trade
1
Ethereum Wave Analysis – 9 December 2025- Ethereum broke daily down channel - Likely to rise to resistance level 3600.00 Ethereum cryptocurrency recently broke the resistance zone between the resistance level 3200.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 1) and the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from October. The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active impulse wave 3 of the sharp intermediate impulse wave (C) from November. Given the bullish sentiment seen across the crypto markets today, Ethereum cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 3600.00.
FXPRO:ETHUSDLong
by FxPro
1
Road to 1627The price has completed a strong breakout from the prolonged descending trendline that had capped all bullish attempts since August. This breakout marks a clear shift in market structure from accumulation to early expansion. Following the breakout, price is currently retesting the upper boundary of the prior compression zone around 0.061–0.067, turning it into potential support. Holding above this zone will confirm bullish continuation toward the next structural target. The immediate bullish objective is projected at 0.1627, aligning with the upper resistance zone from the previous distribution range. Momentum expansion and volume confirmation on higher timeframes reinforce the probability of this upward continuation. As long as the market holds above 0.0470 (the breakout base), the overall bias remains strongly bullish, favoring a sustained recovery toward 0.1627 in the mid‑term.
Long
by mehrdad1476
3
EURCHF Price Test the resistance before fall EURCHF moving within a well-defined ascending channel. Price has recently reached the upper boundary of this channel, entering a grey supply/resistance zone around 0.93900 – 0.94000. Technically if the touching this resistance region, the chart illustrates a projected scenario then Price has been respecting both the upper and lower trendlines for several days the area above 0.93900 is highlighted as a potential sell zone, where price has stalled and shown signs of rejection if the bearish trend maintain we could see side target will be 0.93400 to 0.93000 after rejecting the top channel, the chart suggests a potential break below the mid-channel, followed by a deeper decline toward the lower levels. You may find more details in the chart, Trade wisely best f luck buddies. Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis thanks for supporting.
Short
by MrMartin_11
5
S&P 500 weekly – Tight Bollinger Bands at the top of the bullishTime frame: weekly on the S&P 500 via SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( AMEX:SPY ). The chart still shows the same long-term bullish channel that started in 2020, with multiple touches on both the lower trendline (where strong bounces have started) and the upper one (where price often slowed down or corrected). Right now, price is back in the upper part of this channel, trading around recent highs on SPY. Below the chart, the Bollinger Band Width (20, 2) has dropped to very low readings: weekly Bollinger Bands have tightened to levels we hadn’t seen in months. This combination – price pressing the upper edge of the channel plus compressed volatility – tells me we are in a fragile equilibrium, where it may take just one catalyst (like the latest Fed rate cut and the next communication from Jerome Powell) to trigger a volatility expansion. On top of that, flows and macro context are mixed: • SPY just saw about $18.1B of inflows in a week, mainly from short-term traders and hedge funds chasing liquidity and momentum. • Long-term investors trimmed positions in other S&P 500 ETFs (IVV, VOO) as part of year-end rebalancing and tax planning. • The Fed delivered a 0.25% rate cut but with notable internal dissent, while inflation expectations remain around 3% and valuations are rich. Overall, the higher-time-frame bias on SPY remains slightly bullish, but upside looks somewhat constrained and very sensitive to any change in the Fed’s tone. ⸻ My trade idea on SPY (bullish bias, tactical long) Given this backdrop, I’m looking at SPY as a slightly bullish, buy-the-dip setup rather than a pure breakout chase at current highs. In my own trading plan, I frame it like this: • Entry (Long): around $680 (a pullback area close to the $680.30 level recently traded, still within the upper zone of the channel but not at the very top) • Take Profit (TP): area $694 (upper part of the recent range and potential extension if volatility finally expands to the upside after the weekly Bollinger squeeze) • Stop Loss (SL): below $671 (under a nearby support area from the recent price ladder; if price trades and closes below there, for me it would mean the dip is turning into a deeper mean-reversion inside the channel) This gives me a positive reward-to-risk profile: I’m risking the move from roughly 680 down to 671, aiming for a potential extension toward 694 if the bullish channel continues and volatility breaks higher. ⸻ How I’m reading the scenarios My operational logic on this setup: • I don’t assume the bullish trend has to end just because we are at the top of the channel. • At the same time, I don’t want to chase fresh highs with tight weekly Bollinger Bands and a divided Fed. • I prefer to wait for SPY to dip into the $680 area, where the risk/reward for a long is more attractive for me. From here, I see two main paths: 1. Scenario 1 – Bullish continuation (TP side) • Price holds above $671 and buyers step in around $680. • Weekly Bollinger Bands start to widen with price pushing higher. • In that case, I’m targeting the $694 zone as my first logical take-profit area. 2. Scenario 2 – Deeper mean reversion (SL side) • Price breaks and closes below $671. • That would signal to me that the “buy-the-dip” idea is wrong here and that SPY is likely reverting toward the mid/lower part of the long-term channel, in line with elevated valuations, sticky inflation and long-term investors de-risking. • In that case, my plan is to be out via the stop, rather than trying to fight a possible shift in structure. The idea is invalidated for me if SPY slices through $671 without any real upside reaction from the $680 area and weekly volatility starts to expand downward instead of higher. In that case I step aside and reassess the broader structure rather than forcing a long. ⸻ Risk management note This is just how I’m structuring my own SPY plan in a slightly bullish environment, with compressed weekly volatility and a Fed that has cut rates but remains divided and data-dependent. Position sizing, leverage and execution all have to be adapted to one’s own time frame and risk tolerance; the key for me is to define levels before the next volatility expansion, not in the middle of it. Disclaimer This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. You are solely responsible for your own investment and trading decisions. Financial markets involve significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
AMEX:SPY
by rossimichele
1
Selena | USDJPY 1H–Bullish Reversal Setup Toward 157.800 TargetFX:USDJPY After an aggressive sell-off into 154.80–155.00 demand, USDJPY produced a strong impulsive recovery, reclaiming broken structure. Price is now compressing under the descending trendline and retesting the 155.50–155.70 entry zone, forming a potential higher-low setup. Bias remains bullish above this zone, aiming for a structural reversal toward major resistance. Key Scenarios ✅ Bullish Case 🚀 Entry around 155.40–155.70 retest zone Break & close above the descending trendline → continuation wave 🎯 Target 1: 156.96 (major resistance) 🎯 Final Target: 157.80–158.00 liquidity zone ❌ Bearish Case 📉 Only valid if price breaks below 155.20 Downside continuation into 154.80 demand zone Below 154.70, structure turns fully bearish again Current Levels to Watch Resistance 🔴: 156.00 / 156.95 Support 🟢: 155.40 / 155.20 / 154.80 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Long
by Gold-Thoughts-by-Selena
1