What Is Really Happening With Metals?What Is Really Happening With Metals?
A question the market has already answered before you realized it.
The Real Context
We live in a fragile world.
Institutions that promised stability have lost credibility. Monetary policies that worked a decade ago now create more problems than they solve. Financial markets are speculative machines disconnected from any physical anchors.
In this environment, something occurs that conventional economic theory ignores: capital seeks tangible reality with modern access.
When everything abstract fails, the real prevails.
---
The Paradox No One Admits
Bitcoin haters benefit from the technology that crypto developed.
That's the irony.
Central banks criminalize Bitcoin while building their own blockchain versions. Regulators reject cryptocurrencies while creating frameworks for RWAs (Real World Assets).
This is not contradiction. It's institutional plagiarism.
If Bitcoin critics were right, the digital euro wouldn't exist.
But it does. And that says everything.
---
From Useless Altcoins to Tangible Assets
For years, crypto promised to revolutionize the world.
Altcoins with no utility. Speculative narratives. Technology searching for problems.
Most were dreams created to hypnotize retail investors. "Hold your alts, they'll go to the moon" they screamed. It never happened. It wasn't meant to.
But there were other possibilities. And now they're emerging.
We're entering something different. More mature. More real.
Blockchain anchored in tangible assets.
This is not crypto's defeat. It's crypto's real victory.
---
The Problem Crypto Solved Without Knowing
A decade ago, if you wanted gold you had bad options:
Physical gold: Expensive to store. Difficult to transfer. Immobilized. Requires vaults.
Bank certificates: Total counterparty dependence. Lack of transparency. Systemic risk.
Gold mining companies: Not real gold. Operational risk.
You couldn't travel with gold without risk. Investing in gold was prehistoric.
---
What Crypto Enabled: Gold Tokenization
Today, thanks to blockchain:
Own fractions of tokenized gold
Verify backing in real time without intermediaries
Transfer in seconds globally
Exchange without unnecessary intermediaries
Convert to physical whenever you want
Or keep it digital (equally real)
You no longer need to carry gold bars around.
You have digital access to verifiable, secure gold.
Who made this possible? Crypto. The same technology ridiculed five years ago.
---
Digital Gold Is Not Speculation. It Is Gold.
When you tokenize gold on blockchain, you're not creating something imaginary. You're improving something real.
An RWA gold asset is:
Verifiable: Blockchain proves backing in real time
Fractionable: Buy from $10/day without intermediaries
Liquid: Sell in minutes, not days
Portable: You don't need it physically to own it
Transparent: You know exactly where it is, how much exists, who custodies it
This is more secure than traditional gold. It has both layers: verifiable physical backing plus immediate digital access.
Critics are simply wrong. And they prove their error every day using digital money that central banks create with blockchain.
---
The Institutional Confession
The European Central Bank develops digital euros.
The Federal Reserve builds blockchain-based settlement systems.
Governments create digital money.
What's the technological base? Blockchain. Exactly: the infrastructure that Ethereum proposed 10+ years ago.
Central banks criminalize Bitcoin while reproducing its technology.
This is not regulation. It's admitted plagiarism.
If Bitcoin critics were right, there would be no digital euro.
But it exists. QED.
---
The Convergence of Markets
We're at an inflection point few understand.
Old Phase (2010-2024):
Altcoins with no utility. Pure speculative narratives. Blockchain desperately searching for a problem.
New Phase (2025+):
Tokenization of real assets: gold, silver, copper, oil on blockchain. Commodities connected to the digital world. RWAs as a bridge between traditional finance and blockchain.
In this phase: gold and Bitcoin don't compete. They're allies.
Gold becomes more accessible, more liquid, more verifiable through blockchain.
Bitcoin is no longer just speculative. It's part of an ecosystem of digitalized hard assets that even governments want to reproduce (without admitting it).
---
Why This Matters Now
We live in a context where:
Real geopolitical tensions exist (not theoretical)
Institutions are questioned
The world's most powerful nation faces internal and external problems
Security is priority
The future is uncertain
The solution is not less technology. It's more technology applied to proven assets.
You need gold that:
Is backed by verifiable real metal
Is verifiable on blockchain
Can be converted to physical whenever you want
Doesn't depend entirely on central banks
Is yours in reality
This is RWA. And in times of geopolitical fear, RWAs make complete sense.
They are the bridge between what you know (gold, security, tangibility) and what the future requires (accessibility, verification, decentralization).
---
The Historical Pattern: Gold vs. Stocks
We look back and see a pattern repeated almost mathematically.
The 1970s:
Abandonment of the gold standard
Runaway inflation
Energy crisis
Institutions losing control
Result: Gold multiplied. Stock markets offered negative real returns. Not accident. Inevitable mechanics.
Late 1990s to Early 2000s:
Tech bubble bursts
Speculative narratives collapse
Markets need years to digest the excess
Result: Gold leading a prolonged bull cycle. Stock indices struggling to survive.
Today:
The gold-to-stock ratio is not at historical highs.
That matters more than it seems. It doesn't mean gold has hit its ceiling. It means there's still room under the right macroeconomic conditions.
Current conditions equal geopolitical fragmentation, structural weakness in financial assets, institutional distrust.
Exactly the conditions that historically favor significant expansion of that ratio.
Markets aren't overvaluing gold. They're undervaluing what's happening everywhere else.
---
Silver: The Amplifier
Silver is gold's beta. More volatile. More industrial. More sensitive.
When gold rises, silver doesn't just follow: it amplifies.
More aggressive bull phases. Also more fragile. More prone to sharp corrections when extreme momentum exhausts.
In the current cycle, silver accelerated its movement more abruptly than gold.
Really crazy parabola.
In cycle terms: part of the move is already ahead. Silver is more speculative. Gold still has runway.
And now, through tokenization, small investors participate in fractional silver.
Without expensive vaults. Without traditional banking intermediaries.
That is democratization of access.
---
Copper: Geopolitical Reality Window
Copper is different. It's not primarily a safe-haven metal. It's a strategic metal.
Structural Electrification
Electrical grids, renewables, electric vehicles, data centers: everything requires copper. A lot of it.
This demand is not cyclical. It's structural. Inevitable.
The Military Dimension
Modern warfare is electrical.
Copper is essential in:
Sophisticated munitions
Military communications
Radar and guided systems
Missiles and drones
Military infrastructure
In phases of global rearmament, demand intensifies sustainably.
When war is near, copper shines.
Mining Companies: Pure Operational Leverage
Mining companies amplify metal movements.
A 20% increase in copper price equals 40-50% increase in profits.
Copper is not a safe-haven metal. It's a strategic opportunity metal.
Through tokenization, retail investors participate without needing million-dollar positions in traditional miners.
---
Palladium and Platinum: The Sensors
Palladium occupies uncomfortable territory: small market, concentrated supply (Russia, South Africa), specific industrial demand.
In normal phases: standard industrial asset.
In geopolitical tension or supply disruptions: indicator of extreme volatility.
Abrupt movements. Difficult to sustain. Often preceding major cycle changes.
Platinum can act as a partial substitute in some applications, but doesn't eliminate the structural market fragility.
These are metals to watch as cycle sensors and geopolitical indicators.
---
The Rotation: How Markets Move According to Context
Capital moves in predictable sequences. Timing remains uncertain.
Phase I: Early Risk-Off
Context: Geopolitical tensions emerge. Fear is latent, unconfirmed.
What leads: Gold, palladium initial moves, energy
Signal: Crypto begins to bleed. Financial markets don't yet understand.
Phase II: Structural Risk-Off (We are here now)
Context: Conflicts prolong. Rearmament formalizes. Strategic electrification accelerates.
What leads: Gold (stable, rising), copper and miners (important role), uranium begins repricing
Signal: Total dominance of hard assets. Crypto remains fragile. But RWAs begin emerging as alternative to pure crypto.
Phase III: De-escalation and Fear Normalization
Context: Conflict stops escalating. Expectations improve. Uncertainty slows.
What happens: Uranium peaks. Copper loses momentum. Gold consolidates. RWAs consolidate as full narrative.
Signal: First sign of change. But still not real risk-on.
Phase IV: Confirmed Risk-On
Context: Real tensions diminish. Capital seeks greater returns.
What leads: Bitcoin, Ethereum, progressively other assets
Signal: Rotation from hard assets to speculation. But RWA access to hard assets allows maintaining exposure with efficiency.
Critical note: Understanding this sequence means understanding the complete cycle.
Not just Bitcoin dominance and alt seasons. Perhaps those crypto cycles won't happen again like they did before.
---
The Synthesis: What Markets Are Doing
Markets converge toward something that is:
Real and tangible: gold, copper, real assets
Digitalized: via blockchain (accessible, transferable, verifiable)
Free from institutional dependence: but with regulation
Accessible to the majority: fractionalization of real assets
It's not "blockchain vs. gold" and who wins.
It's a new synthesis: trustworthy traditional markets plus blockchain efficiency.
Bitcoin haters finance exactly this through central banks creating digital money.
They oppose Bitcoin but approve digital euros.
The technology they rejected is the one they use.
The public who believed them will understand this too late.
---
What Reality Says
Metals are not on a speculative rally. They respond to fundamental changes.
Reality over abstraction:
When everything financial fails, the physical prevails.
Strategy over consumption:
Copper demand grows due to rearmament and state electrification, not ordinary cycles.
Historical memory:
Gold always rises when institutions lose trust.
And institutional trust today equals where it was in the 1970s.
Modern infrastructure:
Blockchain enables access that was previously impossible without sacrificing security.
Anticipating signals:
Pure crypto weakness, gold strength, copper miner momentum, RWA emergence are not isolated facts.
---
The Uncomfortable Conclusion
If metals rise while speculative crypto falls, while growth stocks struggle, while bonds are questioned:
The market is being realistic.
Geopolitical tensions are real. Debt is unsustainable. Central banks can't rescue everything. Institutions are questioned.
And it seeks protection in the only thing that always works: what cannot be printed, replicated, or destroyed by political decisions.
But now, improved with digital access that crypto made possible.
Metals will remain protagonists while these conditions persist.
Not because it's fashion. Because they reflect truth that financial markets try to deny.
And RWAs will gain market share not because they defeat gold, but because they make it accessible to everyone.
Those who understand this rotation, who see metals as cycle sensors, who accept that blockchain improved access to hard assets will be better positioned.
Technical analysis is largely out of the game for now.
It's not about trading. It's about the real need to preserve wealth in a fearful environment.
"If I don't have to, I won't sell my gold which will always be gold" becomes a common phrase now.
The market knows. Crypto made it possible. Most people haven't yet processed that both things are true.
---
Operational Perspective for 2025
Physical gold plus tokenized gold (RWA):
Long-term defensive position. Rising smoothly and profitably. Psychological resistance above 2,200.
Silver:
A more playful asset for traders who are now out of crypto. Waiting for rotation to Bitcoin at the right time.
Copper and miners:
Strategic opportunity asset in tension contexts. Mining ETFs amplify moves. New tokenizations open retail access.
Palladium:
Good sensor. Short-term play. Also tokenized.
Crypto:
Surviving this moment. Preparing to surge again. Meanwhile, hard assets on blockchain lead.
---
Final Synthesis
We don't choose between gold versus technology.
We choose gold improved by technology.
We don't choose between gold versus Bitcoin.
We choose both in a new ecosystem.
The era of RWAs (Real World Assets) is not the future. It's the present.
And we're just beginning.
---
By Teo Mariscal
Special thanks to the CGP crew for all the teachings.
---
References
Baur, D. G., & Lucey, B. M. (2010). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? Financial Review, 45(2), 217-229.
European Commission. (2022). Regulation on Markets in Crypto-assets. Official Journal of the European Union.
Gold Council. (2023). Gold as a financial asset: Market structure and properties. World Gold Council Research.
Humphreys, D. (2019). The future of copper: Will mining keep pace with demand? Resources Policy, 60, 226-234.
Rogoff, K. (2019). The decline of cash. The American Interest, 14(3), 18-24.
