Pandemic
Lockheed profit target 25%I picked up some Lockheed Martin today, because both value and sentiment on the stock are looking too good to resist.
Value
I estimate Lockheed's forward P/E at about 12.5, which is really cheap for a megacap. Forward P/S is 1.5, and forward dividend yield is over 3%. I estimate Lockheed's PEG ratio at about 2, with the annual earnings growth rate sitting near 4%, the sales and dividend growth rates closer to 2.5%, and the free cash flow growth rate near 5%. These are pretty great numbers. Lockheed has about 23% upside to its median price multiple of the last 4 years. Its main competitor, Boeing, has been hemorrhaging money like a catastrophic head wound hemorrhages blood. Meanwhile, Lockheed's been enjoying tailwinds from recovery of TSA throughput numbers, proposed acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne, and announcement of a large UK military budget this year.
Sentiment
Analysts give Lockheed an average rating of 7.8/10, a solid "Buy." This rating has recently improved a few points. S&P Global gives Lockheed's fundamentals an average score of 77.25/100. Its ESG score is about average for its industry. Open interest from options traders is in very bullish territory, with a 30-day put/call ratio of 0.5. TradingView's technicals-o-meter is flashing "buy." The average analyst price target for Lockheed is more than 15% above the current price.
Trading plan
I sketched out a tentative view on how Lockheed might move from here. We're sitting right at a resistance and hopefully about to break out. If we get through resistance here, I'm looking for a fairly decisive move to about $394.50. From there, I'm thinking we dither for a while. A lot will depend on conditions in the larger economy, but with vaccinations, stimulus checks, and geopolitical tensions, I suspect Lockheed will eventually break out toward its all-time high. If it hits my second target, the profit from the trade will be about 25%. I'm hoping it gets there by the end of 2021.
MESA Airline stocks endured a miserable 2020 due to the pandemic, but Mesa is not a typical airline. The company operates small planes under contracts with larger partners. In Mesa's case, that means it flies primarily for American Airlines Group (NASDAQ: AAL), United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ: UAL), and Deutsche Post (OTC: DPSGY) DHL. The fee-for-service model has helped insulate Mesa from some of the losses its larger partners have faced during the pandemic. Mesa last week surprised investors with a fiscal first-quarter profit that exceeded expectations, causing the stock to gain altitude.
Last Boarding CallAs the vaccines roll out and the world over comes the pandemic, travel will be popular among many that have been unable to for the past year.
While still heavily oversold (75% below the all time high in 2018) flight centre remains in a good position to bounce back.
Currently in a rising wedge, price is situated on support and is likely to take off.
AWA's Travel Survey (2020)
69% of Australians hope to travel within the first six months of restrictions being lifted
50% are keen to travel for two weeks or more on their next holiday
74% said they would be comfortable spending just as much on their next holiday as they did pre COVID-19
ASTRAZENECA PHARMA ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTASTRAZENECA correction is almost coming to an end. The end of wave (C) at the fourth wave will be a good buying zone.
MTY GambleProbably on the companies that got hit hardest by Covid and the pandemic. Still trying to find its way back to pre covid levels. This can be a great long term buy. I was in this at 28 and sold at 50. Will look to get in again if we see sub 45. Their focus is food court restaurants which are still recovering from lockdowns. Some of their franchises include Thai Express and Valentine.
Could be worth a shot. Resistance is 55 right now but we could see $60 and even $70 in the next few months of things get back ok track.
More of a opinion based on fundamentals then technicals. I believe they are a very good company.
Bearish Sentiment on EURAUD going into 2021Sentiment for Global Recovery
Further EUR weakness expected as fiscal & monetary stimulus in Europe will push inflation-linked assets higher globally.
Auddie strength on commodities correlation as global inflation is expected to rise as vaccine roll-out helps boost economic recovery.
Economic activities are expected to bounce back as vaccination efforts around the world continue.
China 🇨🇳 has shown that when the pandemic is under control, things go back to normal.
This is my bullish view of the Global economy from 2021 to 2024.
Technical Perspective
Since November, this pair has broken a strong level of support
US Market: About to crash or everything is going "good"?Hello traders!
Hope y'all had a good week. In this post I want to talk a little about the nature of the economic recovery that we have seen in one of the largest equity markets in the world: the USA stock exchange.
Unless you've been living under a rock, isolated and without contact with the outside, you are probably aware about the overall outlook on how the pandemic has impacted different countries. In the U.S there were strong market crashes at the beginning of the year, multiple sessions with market halts, companies going bankrupt and others, mainly on the tech side, significantly increasing their value, among other things.
As the months went by and as optimism about an accelerated economic recovery began to reach the markets, we saw how they started rising again, to the point of reaching all-time highs. However, there are certain things that we cannot ignore when evaluating the character of this rise. On the fundamental side, we have certain aspects that we must consider:
Stimulus packages
The (literally) trillionaire dollar print
Interest rates at 0
There has been much talk that this recovery is nothing more than a result of the stimulus packages delivered by the US government, since many people have used the money to start their trading journey, leading to demand for shares and consequently pushing the price up. This is tied to the gigantic amount of new dollars in circulation, which is intended to combat deflation. (In short, it's when no one spends money because they expect prices to fall, and it can be much more devastating than inflation).
The problem is that, despite all these efforts, inflation continues not to rise and the US government has been left without many alternatives to achieve its goal of 2% per year inflation rate. Since interest rates are already at 0%, the only bullet they have regarding monetary policies is lowering the rates to the negative field.
From a technical analysis point of view, there are certain patterns and clues (circled on the chart) that volume leaves us. If we pay attention, we can see that we have repeatedly seen a significant increase in volume around the areas where the market has made a correction, while the bullish rallies have not been accompanied by a especially high volume. This may suggest, in summary, that when the market makes a correction, there are many more interested in selling than buyers who want to join when the market rises. This in itself is not enough to conclude that we are facing another market downturn, but it is definitely something to consider when analyzing the character of the upward momentum in recent months, especially when contrasting it with the reality that exists in many places, since it does not it exactly reflects a healthy economy that supports rising markets, and while Main Street and Wall Street are different creatures, it's important to consider both.
There you have it folks! Remember that with or without a global economic crisis, we must always plan each trade we make and trade our plan.
I hope this post is useful for you! Leave in the comments what you think about it.
NNOX: TSLA OF HEALTCARE?After successful breakout above 51, NNOX has been retracing to test the newly formed RBS.
Fundamentally, it has had a successful launch of its futuristic looking NANOx.ARC, which design can only be seen in Startrek or Starwars movies before this. This could provide major tailwind for NNOX as Xray imaging is one of the most essential diagnostic process especially during the current era of chest & lung loving virus.
Looking to enter at current level and hold forever.
DISCLAIMER: This is not an investment advice nor a buy call. This is just some analysis of based on some technical factors coupled with just a little or totally nonexistent fundamentals. This analysis is based on lagging (past) data (ie historical prices) thus any forward looking statement is just based on perceived highly probabilistic assumption(s) to assist personal trading decision.
SPX: some infosHi Guys,
I see this...
What do you see?
Please share your views and comments below.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Cozzamara
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
The US Dollar Index outlook The US Dollar has been moving sideways ever since the end of summer. Price has return to an area of previous structure support (almost touching the ascending trend line. Price can either break out of that small zone and descending trend line and see rejection from that major key level of 93.10 or break above the key level for bullish sentiment.
The "Everything Crises". A Pandemic Collapse followed by...... a Financial Collapse. - Now what??...
EURGBP Analysis Ahead of Fishy Brexit TalksAnalysis based on Price Action and Fundamentals
With Risk Management you will never Loss.
Thank you.
BLACK SWAN PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO WIG20This pessimistic scenario is based upon current state of healthcare services in Poland which were underfinanced for many years and have very limited resources in qualified personell and equipment.
There is significant lack of nurses and doctors in Poland not mentioning available hospital beds which means the system is near its breaking point.
Recents countrywide protests could lead to epidemic spread of Covid 19 infection which will soon paralyse healthcare sytem and force goverment to freeze everything.
$LAKE Deep Dip and Flip Pandemic pt.2$LAKE is finally pulling back a bit now getting towards support in a big way. Price is falling quite hard so by no means am I interested in the first approach (unless extremely strong) but, if there is a pandemic part two that shows its ugly face in the nearer future, this could go nuts again.
Euro gains faith of investors durring Corona Virus.E.U successfully overcomed the challenge of coronavirus unpredictable first strike. Even with the threat of italy and spain leaving the union, E.U stand united and finded the soloutin. That win against the pandemic gived faith to the investors who remained stand by the europeans.
Also the elections of november for the next US president, the black live matters movement and the treatment of Trump's government for the pandemic shows an unstable economic enviroment.
EURO vs's Potential $1.17 ResistanceMy Fellow Traders,
Appreciate you taking the time to view my analysis, in which I hope you may find it beneficial. Please be sure to “LIKE” if you indeed find my analysis useful and/or find my analysis intriguing.
Also, I’m new to charting game and the crypto/stock space. So, if you have any constructive criticism or tips, please share.
Cheers & Happy Trading!
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ANALYSIS:
The EURO appears to be struggling at $1.17, which should turn into resistance. If the previous overhead diagonal resistance continues to act as support, we can see the EURO funnel down to re-test support at $1.1686. Moreover, as new COVID cases in Europe are on an uptrend, this bearish narrative seems like a not too distant reality. Especially as we are seeing the 20ema wanting to reclaim its dominance over the 9ema.
S&P500 - Short Still a couple days in September to make this a fully engulfing candle. What do you think?
Monthly Chart
if corona panic get over this is what will hapensif corona keep on media for more time, eu will consolidate and make a new high. This is my Personal Visionari View of the market futures.
Wish you the best "
peace and ligth
DXY/ Economy for next decade.Hi Guys!
Today I would like to talk about Ray Dalio and problems on the global economy.
(not sure if he needs the introduction)
Ray Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater. Bridgewater has raised over $ 58 billion for his clients.
Bloomberg managed to access the message to their clients. And as it is now accepted there were found very gloomy forecasts regarding the financial market and how it will behave in the next 10 years and it assumes as a "lost decade" for the stock market.
If you look at previous historical events, there were several cases when the financial market had negative returns for 10 years or more. That is, if you put your money in the stock market and waited 10 years or more, you would still be at a loss. For example, in the 2000s, right before the collapse of Dot-com, that is, if you invested and waited until 2012, you would still have a negative balance. But the best example that can be cited is in 1929 when if you were to invest then you would have to wait over 30 years before you could profit from your investment. And Dalio believes that we are in this kind of period.
I propose to figure out why Ray Dalio thinks so.
1. Bridgewater cited a drop in profits as the reason for the lost decade in the future, so it's a drop in what was once a profit. They noted “the margin that provided most of the excess stock returns over cash may face a shift beyond the current yield cyclical decline,” and one of the reasons they see the decline in earnings is due to declining globalization. they also said "Globalization, perhaps the biggest driver of profitability in developed countries over the past few decades, has already reached its peak. Now the conflict between the US and China and the global pandemic is further accelerating the efforts of multinationals to reorient and duplicate supply chains, with a focus on reliability rather than just cost optimization."
In 2019 and years earlier, there was a big direction towards globalization, which means that companies operate in different countries and buy things in others as it is much cheaper and profits are growing significantly. But analysts from Bridgewater see a decline in globalization after this crisis as countries begin to rely more on themselves and produce their local goods, but for a large number of companies this reduces profits because it is more expensive to produce goods themselves than to outsource them and this is one of the key reasons of a lost decade - "Decrease in globalization".
2. “Even if overall profitability recovers, some companies will die or their shares will devalue during this time. Left with lower yields and cash shortages, companies are likely to come out of the curve with more debts. ”
POSSIBILITY OF UP SQUEEZE BEFORE RANGING TREND - GLYHO - 240MNGLYHO is arriving at a very important area, pink square zone.
Probable support and resistance are marked with a green to line and a red bottom line.
For the moment the trend is clearly an uptrend one. However, the market has already tested an upper point which as resulted in a strong downward pullback. The trending blue line has been holding the price up.
Beware:
-Possibility of continuous uptrend then a pullback down from the red line.
-Other possibility is a market fear which could lead to a brief retreat to the down red support.
Other thing:
- We can see that overall the market is recovering from the pandemic effect. The blue horizontal line is marking the most relevant pivot point. This is confirming a potential area where the market is at the moment.
Consumer staples testing trend line on reclosing & stimulus newsConsumer staples tested and got rejected from a critical trend line this afternoon. The sector has been strengthening due to demand for groceries as economies reclose. Today it also got a bump thanks to news that people with incomes less than $40,000/year may get a second round of stimulus checks. This ought to help juice consumer demand a little. I've also been impressed with the staples sector's performance on earnings reports so far, and I'm expecting the sector to continue to beat analyst expectations.
The staples sector has been beneath a downward sloping trend line since February, but it has tested the trend line three times in fairly rapid succession and may be gearing up for a breakout. I've set an alert on the trend line and will be watching for a cross with good volume as my buy signal.
