ChristopherCarrollSmith

ChristopherCarrollSmith

Liquidity is the whole ballgame As I've watched the market rip higher amid massive federal deficits, extremely low taxes, and extremely low interest rates over the last several years, I've experienced a growing conviction that "liquidity is the whole ballgame" where markets are concerned. You can chart stock market performance largely as a function of how...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

Defensives have been outperforming the S&P 500 since March. If you believe the outperformance will continue, then now might be the time to buy, as they are approaching the support line. I'm particularly watching utilities. In addition to being a classic defensive sector, utilities also have "growth" potential. They had a...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

Polygon is considered the leading Ethereum scaling solution and has been a fast mover and a popular pick for investors. I am using a scaled entry strategy on Polygon. I call it the crypto Martingale. In this strategy, you choose several supports and buy at each one, tripling your position size each time. It requires a little math in advance in order to make sure...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

I've made a stupid amount of money in this thing since it started; so much so that it's making me question why I waste my time doing fundamental analysis on stocks, lol. Ethereum Max is an ERC-20 (Ethereum-based) token that trades primarily on Uniswap and Sushiswap. (It's also tradeable on Alt5 and HotBit.) It's only nine days old, but as you can see, it's gone...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

ETH has been getting absolutely crushed this week, both in dollar terms and in Bitcoin terms. As you can see, ETHUSD is now testing whether it can hold the 200 EMA, which in my experience is a really key support level. If ETHUSD can't hold this level, then the next stop is about 1440, with additional supports at 1115 and 730. The Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio is also...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

A New Product Shows Ford Is Finally Taking Electric Seriously Ford just announced the release of its Lightning all-electric F150, due 2022. Available at essentially the same price point ($39,974) that Tesla has advertised for its Cybertruck, due late 2021. A Ford rep dropped this little bomb on Tesla's triangle-shaped Cybertruck in a media interview: “Our...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

The conventional wisdom out there among traders is that by the time you read a news headline, the algorithms have already priced it in. That's really not true, especially in cases where the news goes against strong upward momentum. The algorithms aren't going to place big bets against momentum. This is a case where you, as a human trader, have an edge over...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

There's some chatter in both the US and Europe about subsidizing chip manufacturing to help deal with the semiconductor shortage. That has sent chip stocks surging today, including Intel. I like Intel a lot, because it's quite reasonably valued for a chip company and has lots of plans for expanding its manufacturing capacity, which means it's poised to be a big...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

Nasdaq's sharp drop is creating a few buying opportunities in tech, but I think you have to be choosy. One that I like is Progress Software, which is sitting at 200 EMA support and near trend line support, with a forward P/E of 12 and a 1.8% dividend yield. Progress is fairly innovative, with 3 patents per year per billion dollars of market cap, and it's a growing...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

The Nasdaq is looking like it may test its support line soon. The index has been responding very negatively to any whiff of rising interest rates (falling prices) on bonds. Bond rates fell (and prices rose) for five weeks straight, but then they hit the 200-day EMA like a brick wall, broke their trend, and have been trading sideways the last two weeks. This week...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

Introducing the Buffett Indicator One aspect of the recent rotation from growth stocks to value stocks is that investors have been rotating into undervalued markets that have suffered ten-year downtrends. The "Buffett Indicator" provides a way of comparing country-wise stock market valuations. The indicator divides total market cap (TMC) by GDP plus Total Assets...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

Credit to Lyn Alden on Twitter for the idea for this chart. As she quipped when she posted a similar chart, inflation is low... as long as you don't buy food, or a house, or commodities. CPI inflation has been unusually low for the last decade From 2010 to 2019, CPI (the Consumer Price Index, a popular measure of inflation) averaged 1.73%. That's a...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

Watch for bond breakdown as a Nasdaq sell signal Early this year, the Nasdaq had its weakest run in a long time as interest rates rose (and prices fell) on the 10-year US bond. (Note that bond rates and bond prices move in opposite directions.) Both tech and 10-year bonds have rallied a bit since March, but amid heightened inflation expectations this week, I've...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

BTG: A Mid-cap Miner with Value and Improving Sentiment B2Gold Corp has a P/E of 8, and P/FCF of 8.5, and a dividend yield of 3.34%. That's solid value for money. S&P Global gives it about 70/100 for fundamentals, and analyst ratings on the stock have recently grown more bullish after it made a bullish move across a downward-sloping resistance line. It's frankly...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

As the market has rotated from overpriced large-cap tech stocks to underpriced small-cap value stocks, three of the best-performing metrics have been dividend yield, share buybacks, and inexpensive free cash flow. $COWZ is a mid-cap fund that tracks stocks with high free cash flow yields, and its performance has been accordingly stellar. Even after its huge recent...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

VIAC is retesting the bottom of its Archegos Capital-related plunge a couple weeks ago. If this support holds, we should see a bounce. I've not extensively analyzed the fundamentals on this stock, but just eyeballing it, it looks fairly valued to me. Just in it for a quick swing trade, I think.

ChristopherCarrollSmith

Boeing has had five straight quarters of negative-- and steadily worsening-- free cash flow per share. Current FCF per share over the last 12 months: -$34.15. Book value is also negative at $-31.04 per share. Frankly, you're buying liabilities when you buy this stock. Boeing's share price has risen despite one disaster after another. The latest is that a bunch of...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

What is a Whale, and Why is Archegos Capital One? Archegos Capital is what's called a "whale," meaning it's a big enough hedge fund that it can drive prices higher all by itself. Since a lot of traders buy "momentum" stocks, whales can make money by manipulating prices higher and then selling to "dumb money" that buys momentum stocks without regard to...