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BTCUSD: A Reversal Here Can Spark New Rally?BTCUSD update: Higher low in progress just above the minor support area of 12483 to 12139 as bearish price momentum continues to maintain control. Now is the time to watch carefully for a swing trade long entry. As I wrote about in my previous report, there is an infrequent broader reversal structure in play. The subsequent resistance level has been taken out (13520) and the next step is to evaluate the following retrace for a swing trade long entry. The market is following the scenario so far, and presenting the anticipated higher low. Now the question is: when to enter the swing trade long? The answer is in how the current candle closes. If it closes on it's lows, then there is no reason to enter if you are waiting for momentum to be in your favor. Buying when momentum is going your way minimizes pain and randomness from the setup over time. I am waiting for a break of the high of a pin bar or inside bar to occur which would be around 13300 at the moment. That would trigger a swing trade long with a stop around 12100 and a target of 16200 which is around 3:1 reward/risk. This swing trade would be separate from the position trade that I entered into the other day that has no stop or target (explain in that report). It would be especially notable if these candle stick formations appear within the 12483 to 12139 minor support zone which is the .618 area relevant to the recent bullish swing. Waiting for the close of the candle helps to minimize premature entries which often lead to losses. At the moment, price can still continue lower and even retest the 11600 lows. IF that happens, I would be looking for reversals to add to my position trade as well. Prejudging a candle before it closes is a bad habit because you are assuming it is going to close in a way that may not happen (this is especially common on larger time frames). Patience pays especially in preventing potential losses. In summary, not a whole lot has changed in terms of technical formations. The biggest lesson you can take away from a situation like this is that markets stabilize at tops and bottoms over time. It is a process, NOT an event. People who got sucked into buying this market too early, and too big are now at the mercy of the market. Not a good position to be in, but this behavior that payed off two weeks ago is the same behavior that is going to wipe out the inexperienced and impulsive eventually. In my opinion, it is better to miss out than to win and give it all back because when you lose, you lose more than capital, you lose confidence which is a magnitude of loss that cannot be measured in dollars. Slow and consistent requires knowledge and a strong self awareness. That is was trading is really all about, not charts, oscillators and news. Improve your success rate by first identifying and eliminating ineffective behaviors and becoming more aligned with your risk tolerance. It will help you separate yourself from the herd mentality. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
31
ETHUSD Goes Vertical And Where To Look For New LongsETHUSD update: New all time high made at 557.99 which is showing a pin bar on the 12 hour time frame at the time of this writing. There is no question, these markets are all going up in vertical lines, but where do you buy in? And how much longer will these markets soar? I have been cautious which the less experienced will not appreciate yet, but years in the futures and forex markets have taught me what reality is. I started my career in markets just like this back when average daily ranges of stocks were 30 to 50 points per day. Back then I had no clue, no point of reference, until reality set in. That market generosity was active for about two years. No one can forecast when reality will take hold of these markets, so you have to do your best to participate responsibly BUT just remember markets moving 30% in a day is extreme and not the new "normal". Learn the difference now before you have to learn the hard way. As far as this market, it is a tough short term hold because of it's wider swings. My previous trade produced some profit, but my upside was limited by moving my stop to break even at 420. It happens and unlike many, I do not complain about a profit. The focus now is where is the next opportunity. Trading responsibly means following best practices and not throwing caution to the wind which carries very seductive rewards right now. Forming bad habits now plants the seeds for big losses once reality catches up to these markets, because you will not know the difference and will jump in too big at the wrong time. Right now anyone can say "Buy!" and look like a genius, no skill required (which is another sign of euphoria). Market philosophy aside, where are the levels to buy into this market? I am most interested in two areas. The 476 area is the average highs of the previous consolidation which can act as a support. A retrace and reversal here on a smaller time frame (4 hour) would offer attractive reward/risk using the previous low area of 420 as a reference point for risk and the current high as a target (potential retest). If price continues lower than the 470s, the next area I will look to evaluate is the 453 to 426 zone which is the .618 of the current bullish swing and also the middle of the consolidation (which often acts as a solid support). A reversal off of these levels can offer reward/risk of more than 3:1, so IF the market retests, it is an area to pay closer attention to for bullish reversal formations. The 550 level happens to be the upper boundary of the reversal zone measured from the 390 low (based on market proportion). Which makes it the point of reference to measure potential short term reward from, and also the area to avoid for any new longs. The current pin bar in this area is a sign of weakness and implies a retrace is likely. In summary, in these rare and wild times, developing productive habits will allow you to stay in the game in the long run if you are trading on the shorter time horizons. It is possible to swing trade and invest at the same time by keeping your trades and investments separate, or by trading around a core position. Many have taken a gamble at high prices and it has paid off, and continues to , but this same type of gamble only works on occasion, and is extremely costly in a non euphoric environment which this market will return to, just like every market. One of the best practices you can learn is letting the market come to you and not being seduced by vertical lines. One way to accomplish this is simply to define and wait for support structures in strong markets. At least these markets are clear as far as strength goes, so it is just a matter of defining a risk that is in proportion to your account size and your tolerance level, and waiting for a level that offers a clear potential reward. TA provides the framework for these best practices even in vertical markets like these. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
Double bottom on EURUSD. Long opportunity?Hey guys, here we are on the hourly timeframe on EURUSD. As you can see from the blue box, we've recently broken and closed above a daily structure, signaling a long bias for my strategy. Now, as we go down on lower timeframes such as the hourly, you can see we have a double bottom with RSI divergence terminating with a pinbar+engulfing pattern. I'm going to buy at the close of the actual candle, with stops below the low and targets as shown. If you're more aggressive you could put the second target all the way up to 1,1990/1,2000. If you have questions/ideas, feel free to share. Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
Long
by Roker1
DAX testing support zoneFor the last few days we are observing on DAX a strong fall without correction. On session in November 13th price has touch support level and bounced up for near 150 points and drew bullish pinbar, but this didn't stop further price dropping. Today price has tested once again support level and went lower where buyers came out. This could beclassic hunt for stop loss characteristic for DAX. Question is if big players bought there? If yes, than we could see on the next sesssions defense of this level. This could be a good opportunity to open buy order. Looking for a bullish pin bar of November 13th which was negated we will wait for more signals to buy. If support zone at 12900-12960 will not be defended, price could drop at least to 12500 - 12300.
OANDA:DE30EUR
by investsoft
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Extreme Prices And The Retrace.BTCUSD update: Price decline to 5400 and then sharp retrace leaving behind a possible pin bar on the larger time frames. This is most likely the completion of the A Wave. Keep in mind in markets where emotion runs to extremes, levels are going to be far from precise. The 6030 level was the area where I was looking for a bullish retrace to begin the B Wave counter correction, but price went to 5400 instead. This is not logic driving these markets when prices extend that far that fast and then reverse. More importantly, if the current candle closes with a long tail, it will establish a pin bar. These are reversal candles and when they appear on a large time frame (4 hour and above) they carry a lot of weight. A break of 6469 will signal bullish momentum and most likely the beginning of the B Wave. I have written previously that these are tricky waves because they often fool investors into thinking it is the next leg to a new high. If the B Wave unfolds, it is possible for price to retest the 6950 to 7350 zone which is the .618 resistance of the current bearish swing. How is this information helpful? For one, if price breaks above the 6569 high, this market is likely in retrace mode so that means if you have been shorting, you should stop until the next resistance is reached. Possibly lock in more profit (if you are short from the 7ks) and cut losses if you shorted the lows. Also there will be many day trade opportunities on the long side if the market manages to work its way back up to the low 7ks. Why not go long for a swing trade? The reason is the coming bounce (IF it unfolds) is less likely to reach the low 7ks. In the face of such bearish momentum, it may only go to the .382 resistance at the 6350 area and then continue lower. This price action does not favor swing trade longs. And again this is where smaller time frame strategies like day trading solve that problem because the trade is open for a much smaller period of time. Things change way too fast in this market to be taking low probability trades especially when more time in the market is involved. It is possible for the B Wave to be a small retrace that does not get beyond the .382, either way, the next wave which is the C Wave can take this market to the high 4ks. There is a .618 support zone at the 4789 area which is relative to the recent bullish swing originating from the 2980 low. It is just under the broader support in the 4950 area that I have written about in previous reports. A failed high (B Wave) can lead to these levels in the next week or two if this correction persists. IF price manages to retest the high 4ks, that would be an area to watch for some form of stability. Such as a double bottom that takes a number of days to form. This is the area where I would be interested in buying for a broader move back up if the right structure presents itself. That is my plan. Also now that BCH is in play, (and much stronger in terms of fundamentals) BTC may not be worth holding for the long term anymore. It appears BCH is attracting all the investors. That is a risk that we all face with these coins because technology evolves so fast, a coin can become obsolete relatively quickly. And this is why TA is so valuable, it provides signs that can prepare you for what is more likely to happen next, just like the top of this sell off. News is only a catalyst. In summary, this market is in position for a retest of newly projected resistance levels which offers day trade opportunities on the long side in my opinion, no swing trades. If price establishes a lower high in the coming week, it is likely to retest the 5400 low and possible push into the higher 4ks before finding a more stable support to build a base upon. For those who short, 6350 and 6950 are the levels to watch. Other than that I am staying flat and waiting for the market to offer a more attractive reward/risk situation. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
42
FACEBOOK: FB Facebook: FB This was meant for yesterday but some glitch stopped it from uploading... Bit late now, apologies. For what it's worth at this point, a couple of observations: That's quite a large pin bar forming meaning that institutions are indeed unloading, (see below) looking to buy back 5 or 10% cheaper if they can. FB should come back to 175.60 at least and more likely to 172.93 (once 175.60 gives way). It should try to build a base here, off the old highs if the near term uptrend is to remain sound. So any failure during next week to hold up here will trigger a 3% short for about 6 points back to the next support across the 169-168 range. This range isn't particularly strong support, though will still close out there if struck and only look to short again if 168.5 gives way for further (roughly) 3 point fall to 165.6.
FShort
by sumastardon