Get started

Ponzi

The Airplane Game of 1981 — And the Crypto Hope That Replaced ItThe Anatomy of a Ponzi Scheme — How Does Bitcoin Compare? In the summer of 1981, something strange began sweeping across the suburbs of Long Island, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Neighbors invited neighbors to “investment dinners,” where someone would sketch a simple drawing on a napkin: an airplane. One Pilot. One Co-Pilot. Two Crew. Eight Passengers. You handed $1,000 directly to the Pilot and took your Passenger seat at the bottom. Your only job was to bring in friends. When eight new Passengers arrived, the Pilot “flew off” with $8,000, the plane split in two, everyone moved up a row, and the process repeated. For a few cycles, it felt like alchemy. Hairdressers, teachers, firefighters—ordinary people—were suddenly collecting eight times their money in a matter of weeks. Local papers ran breathless human-interest stories. Dinner tables buzzed with the same excited whisper:“It works.” Then, seemingly overnight, the phones went quiet. Everyone already knew someone who had joined. By 1983, the Suffolk County DA estimated that 85–90% of players lost their entire $1,000. What appeared to be social networking magic turned out to be a Ponzi Scheme . How the Airplane Game Actually Worked The numbers themselves tell the story: You paid $1,000 to become a Passenger on the bottom row. When eight new passengers joined, the Pilot at the top cashed out $8,000, the plane split into two new planes, and everyone moved up one row. Your only way to get paid was to recruit enough fresh people so that you eventually reached the Pilot seat — but every round required twice as many new recruits as the last, guaranteeing that almost everyone stayed stuck as a passenger forever while a tiny handful at the very beginning flew off rich. By the tenth round, the game required 4,096 brand-new players to keep the fantasy alive for people already invested in the scheme. In a region with a couple of million residents, the game was mathematically doomed to crash by round 11 or 12. Not bad luck. Not mismanagement. Mathematical Inevitability. The Whales Who Flew Again, and Again One detail from the 1980s rarely made the newspaper headlines: most people who cashed out $8,000 as a Pilot immediately bought back in as a Passenger on one of the new planes — sometimes the same night. Some flew three, five, even eleven times, collecting $24k, $40k, $88k while everyone else was still waiting for their first payout. They told themselves (and everyone else) they were “helping friends move up” or “keeping the game strong.” In practice, they were simply the earliest, best-connected whales, recycling their winnings to harvest the next wave of optimism. When the music finally stopped, the same small circle that had preached “this can go on forever” quietly walked away rich, while the late passengers discovered their seats were now worthless. Bitcoin is NOT the Airplane Game — But the Music Rhymes Bitcoin is not a classic pyramid or Ponzi scheme. There’s no Pilot at the top, no recruiter bonuses, no secret organizer skimming profit. You can exit anytime you want. But when you place an Airplane Game’s flight path beside Bitcoin’s cyclical booms and busts, the emotional cadence is eerily familiar. Each cycle produces smaller multiples. Each requires more new capital than the last. The pattern is recognizable:small community → early outsized wins → viral success stories → broader adoption → diminishing returns. The difference is that Bitcoin stretches the timeline from weeks to years, and swaps social networking and gossip for global media/establishment hype. Where the Psychology Overlaps Despite the mechanical differences, the story dynamics rhyme almost perfectly: AIRPLANE Game 1981: "My sister-in-law just made $8,000 in three weeks!" "Just find 8 more passengers and you're golden!" "It all collapses when no new recruits can be found." BITCOIN 2025: "A kid I work with bought Bitcoin at 3k and he just retired a multi-millionaire!" "Just HODL, dude, the next trillion is incoming—it's a winning lottery ticket, guaranteed!" "The rocket launch stalls and crashes when there are not enough new marginal buyers." Early winners as the marketing and finance engine The encouragement given to newcomers The implied promise1981: “This can’t stop—everyone wants in.” 2025: “There are billions who still don’t own any Bitcoin.” The fragility When new inflows slow, gains slow, and the price softens. The Airplane Game needed eight new Passengers. Bitcoin requires a constant pool of new optimistic buyers bringing hundreds of billions in new investment capital to the game. The emotional script stays the same even if the technology changes. And Yet, the Differences Matter Bitcoin has: no central coordinator to arrest, a hard supply cap rather than infinite issuance, open-source transparency, legitimate use cases in a culture of exotic financial engineering, and a philosophical origin story unmatched in modern finance. These distinctions are real. They’re worth acknowledging. But they don’t override a simpler observation:price movements still depend overwhelmingly on new waves of believers arriving to absorb the hopes of earlier ones. Whether that system is fair or sustainable depends on who you ask. The Human Cost of the Story I’m not worried about the hedge fund that bought at $100,000 and sells at $70,000. Losses are part of their business model, write-offs. I’m worried about the 23-year-old barista who took out a personal loan in November 2025 to buy in because an influencer said $100,000 was “the new floor.” I’m worried about the divorced father who sold his paid-off house to “buy the dip” at $101,000 after being assured that Bitcoin was “the apex property of the human race.” I’m worried about the teenager scrolling through home-ownership stats, wage stats, fertility stats—and deciding the only remaining path to the middle class is to gamble everything on a digital asset hitting a million dollars as he sleeps some day in the distant future. These are the passengers who were handed the last few seats on an airplane that has already circled the globe several times. They deserve better than a lottery ticket with a compelling philosophical backstory. From Rebellion to Ritual Bitcoin began as a beautiful act of rebellion—an elegant escape hatch from a financial system riddled with moral hazard. For a while, it truly was something different. But somewhere along the way, it stopped behaving like a protest movement and started acting like another speculative ritual. It speaks the language of freedom but trades like a sputtering momentum engine. It promises empowerment but delivers volatility and diminishing returns, which lands hardest on those with the least to spare. None of this requires malice.Some systems continue simply because narratives are profitable. Closing Thoughts The Airplane Game whispered to ordinary people in 1981: “You don’t have to be smart—just play the game.” Bitcoin whispers something almost identical today, only in higher resolution. Maybe the most compassionate thing we can do for the next young person about to YOLO their rent money is simple: sit them down, open the old Airplane flight path, tell them the story, and ask, gently: “Does any of this feel familiar?” Because if the music stops again, it won’t be the whales or the establishment who get stranded. It will be the passengers who were told they might someday be pilots. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Current Freefall & Turbulence Technically speaking, for passengers concerned that the oxygen masks are about to drop from overhead compartments, it appears as though Bitcoin is attempting to mitigate its recent nosedive. My chart work suggests it’s wise to expect more turbulence and one or two more marginal new lows into the 79,495 - 71,588 target window before a more secure resumption of lift occurs. Whether the forthcoming lift-off will take Bitcoin back to new all-time highs, as Henrik Zeberg suggests, is quite another matter. Giving Henrik the benefit of the doubt, I am labeling the current decline as a 4th wave basing process at the primary degree. This Elliott Wave analysis is the most charitable interpretation for Bitcoin Bulls. In contrast, if the anticipated Zeberg rally fails, the crest at 126,272 might be in place for a very long time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Wave-Tech
Crypto Winter 2026: BTC 75% Correction PT 30 000 USDInvestment Memo: Anticipating a 2026 Bitcoin Crypto Winter By ProjectSyndicate ________________________________________ 1. Executive Summary ❄️ Summary view: This memo treats 2026 as the high-probability crypto winter year for Bitcoin following the 2024 halving, with a working top around 123,000 USD and an expected cycle low near 30,000 USD, implying roughly a 75–76% drawdown from the peak. This is fully consistent with historical Bitcoin bear markets, which have typically seen 75–85% corrections from all-time highs. ❄️ Contrarian hook: While mainstream narratives still focus on ETFs, institutional adoption, and “crypto as macro asset,” the explosion of leverage (Aster DEX up to 1001x), CZ-backed perps, and BNB-chain meme-coin mania are treated here as late-cycle excess—classic topping signals rather than sustainable foundations. ________________________________________ 2. Thesis & Target Range 📊 Cycle top assumption: cycle high of ~123,000 USD per BTC. That is well within the band implied by recent ATH prints ~125–126k in mid-2025 and aligns with a typical “blow-off” overshoot above the prior psychological milestone at 100k. 📊 Cycle low assumption: 30,000 USD downside target represents a drawdown of ~75.6% from 123,000 USD—slightly shallower than the 2018 crash (~84%) and broadly in line with the 2021–22 bear (~77% from 69k to ~15–16k). That keeps this winter brutal but not apocalyptic, consistent with a maturing asset still capable of deep mean reversion. 🧮 Math check on prior winters • 2017–18: 19k → 3k ≈ 84% drawdown • 2021–22: 69k → 16k ≈ 77% drawdown • 2025–26 (your base case): 123k → 30k ≈ 76% drawdown This places scenario squarely inside the historical corridor of 75–85% post-peak corrections. ________________________________________ 3. Historical Pattern: Why Large Drawdowns Are the Base Case 📉 Structural volatility: Bitcoin’s entire price history is punctuated by massive post-parabolic drawdowns—early cycles saw 86–93% collapses, later ones 75–80%. Each halving-to-peak run has ended in a violent crash once marginal buyers are exhausted and leverage saturates. 📉 Time dimension: Historically, the “winter” phase has lasted 9–18 months from peak to capitulation and then a long grinding accumulation. The 2017 peak to 2018–19 bottom spanned roughly a year; the 2021 peak to 2022–23 nadir similarly took about a year, with a further period of sideways chop. 📉 Drawdown normalization: Traditional asset allocators increasingly frame Bitcoin as an alternative macro asset, but the statistical reality is unchanged: drawdowns of 70%+ are not outliers—they are typical. An assumption of only shallow corrections is the non-consensus view; a 75% winter is actually the boringly normal scenario from a historical distribution standpoint. ________________________________________ 4. Where We Are in the Current Cycle ⏳ Post-halving positioning: The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024, cutting block rewards to 3.125 BTC and effectively tightening supply. Historically, the major blow-off tops occur 12–18 months after halving, as reduced supply + narrative momentum pulls in late-stage retail and leverage. ⏳ Evidence of late-cycle behavior: By mid-2025, Bitcoin had already pushed to new ATHs above 100k and then into the ~120–126k region, with growing signs of ETF saturation, institutional FOMO, and leverage-driven upside. From a purely cyclical lens, we are more likely in the “euphoria / distribution” band than in early bull territory. ________________________________________ 5. Aster DEX & Meme-Coin Mania as Contrarian Top Signals 🚨 Aster DEX as the “Hyperliquid of BNB Chain”: Aster DEX, emerging from APX Finance and Astherus and explicitly leveraging Binance’s network, is marketed as a high-performance perp DEX with MEV-resistant trading and leverage up to 1001x, backed by CZ/affiliate ventures. From a contrarian perspective, this is textbook late-cycle: maximum leverage offered to the broadest possible audience at or near cycle highs. 🚨 BNB meme-coin carnival: Simultaneously, BNB-chain meme coins and speculative listings (Maxi Doge, PEPENODE, various new BNB meme projects) are being pushed as high-beta “next 100x” plays. Historically, similar episodes—2017 ICOs, 2021 dog-coin and NFT mania—have coincided with or slightly lagged Bitcoin’s macro top rather than signal early-cycle value. 🎭 Narrative pattern recognition: In prior cycles, the market’s center of gravity shifted from Bitcoin to highly speculative edges (ICOs, NFTs, obscure DeFi, meme coins) at the very end of the bull. Late-cycle liquidity rotates into lottery tickets while BTC quietly transitions from “must own” to “source of funds.” The current Aster + BNB meme complex rhymes strongly with that historical script. ________________________________________ 6. Why a 75% Drawdown to 30,000 USD is Plausible 🧊 From 123k to 30k mechanically: A move from 123k to 30k doesn’t require structural failure; it merely requires a reversion to historical drawdown. That kind of move can be achieved by: • ETF inflows slowing or turning to mild outflows • Derivatives funding turning negative as carry trades unwind • A moderate macro risk-off (equities correction, higher real yields) 🧊 Maturing, not invincible: As adoption broadens—spot ETFs, institutional mandates, integration into macro portfolios—Bitcoin’s upside may gradually compress, but liquidity cycles and leverage cycles haven’t vanished. Even if each cycle’s drawdown edges slightly lower from ~85% to ~77%, there’s no reason to assume sub-50% drawdowns are the new regime. A respectable winter at 30k is almost conservative relative to earlier -80%+ events. ________________________________________ 7. Why the Floor Might Hold Above Prior Lows 🛡️ On-chain + macro floor logic: Without pinning to proprietary on-chain models, two simple supports for a 30k floor are: • Institutional cost basis: A growing chunk of supply is held via ETFs and treasuries accumulated in the 40–70k band. Many of these players may defend positions with hedging or incremental buying in the high-20k / low-30k region rather than panic-sell at -70–80%. • Realized price ratcheting higher: Across cycles, Bitcoin’s long-term realized price average on-chain cost basis tends to step up structurally. Past winters have bottomed not far below that long-term average; as the realized base rises, so does the likely bear-market floor. 🛡️ Regime shift vs. previous cycles: In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin was still climbing the wall of institutional skepticism. By the mid-2020s, you have: • Spot ETFs • Corporate treasuries • Sovereign/FI experimentation These players typically do not capitulate to zero; they reduce risk, but they also accumulate in stress. That supports the idea of a shallower floor (30k) instead of a full 85–90% purge. ________________________________________ 8. Timing the 2026 Winter 🧭 Halving + 18-month lag template: Using the standard halving cycle template, major tops often occur 12–18 months post-halving, and winters then dominate the following year. With the fourth halving in April 2024, a 2025 ATH and a 2026 winter are exactly what the simple cycle model would project. 🧭 Scenario sketch • 2025: Distribution at elevated levels (80–120k+), persistent Bitcoin as digital gold narrative, alt & meme blow-off, over-issuance of high-leverage products (Aster, other perps). • 2026: Liquidity withdrawal + ETF fatigue + regulatory flare-ups → a stair-step decline through 80k, 60k, 45k, culminating in capitulation wicks into the 30–35k zone before a multi-month bottoming process. ________________________________________ 9. Market Structure Stress Points in a Winter Scenario 🧱 Leverage cascade risk: Perp DEXs offering hundreds to 1000x leverage attract the most price-insensitive flow at the worst time. When BTC breaks key levels (e.g., 80k → 60k → 50k), auto-deleveraging and forced liquidations can accelerate downside far beyond spot selling. Aster-style platforms, while innovative, mechanically create risk of cascading liquidations in a volatility spike. 🧱 Alt & meme vaporization: BNB meme coins and other speculative assets that rode the late-cycle pump will likely see 90–99% drawdowns, as in previous winters where smaller alts dramatically underperformed BTC. In your framework, BTC at 30k is actually the “high-quality survivor” outcome; the majority of late-cycle tokens may never reclaim their peaks. 🧱 Mining and infrastructure: With halved rewards and a much lower BTC price, marginal miners will be forced offline, just as in prior winters. That tends to deepen the short-term pain but ultimately improves the cost curve (strong miners consolidate, inefficient ones exit), laying groundwork for the next cycle. ________________________________________
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
89
Bitcoin: The Most Pristine Greater-Fool Machine Ever BuiltLet’s cut the bullshit. Bitcoin generates zero cash flow to holders. Not one satoshi in dividends, interest, yield, rent, or revenue share. Ever. Your only path to profit is dumping your coins on someone who pays more than you did. Full stop. The protocol itself produces zero economic productivity that accrues to BTC holders. Every single transaction fee? Goes straight to miners. Holding 1 BTC gives you exactly zero claim on future fees, block rewards, or anything else. You are not a shareholder. You own a database entry in a game of digital musical chairs. As of November 2025: ~61-70% of all Bitcoin has not moved on-chain in over 12 months (Glassnode, Chainalysis, Arkham — pick your poison, the story’s the same). If Bitcoin were actually “money” or even a real payment rail, that dormancy number would be microscopic. Instead, it screams one thing: pure HODL speculation praying for capital gains. Real on-chain settled value (not CEX wash-trading volume) is running ~$8-16B per day depending on the source and day (Glassnode, CryptoQuant). Market cap sits at ~$1.9 trillion right now. That’s a daily turnover of roughly 0.5-0.8% of total cap. Even boring Apple stock — a company with actual earnings, buybacks, and dividends — turns over more than that on most days. Visa settles hundreds of times more real-world value every single day with a fraction of the energy waste. Speaking of energy: Bitcoin currently guzzles 160-190 TWh annually (Cambridge, Digiconomist — Nov 2025 estimates). That’s the entire electricity consumption of the Netherlands or Poland… to secure a ledger that moves <0.1% of global payment volume. Every single major Bitcoin parabola required a brand-new cohort of buyers who had never touched BTC before: 2011-2013 → Cypherpunks + Silk Road degens 2016-2017 → Retail FOMO + ICO mania 2020-2021 → Institutions + MicroStrategy + PayPal + stimulus checks 2024-2025 → Spot ETFs + Trump “strategic reserve” hype + corporate treasury narrative Each wave paid 5-10× higher prices so the previous bagholders could cash out or flex unrealized gains. This isn’t “adoption.” This is textbook sequential recruitment of greater fools. When fresh money slows? Bitcoin has never once failed to crash 75-85%+ from the top. 2011: -93% 2014: -86% 2018: -84% 2022: -77% No exceptions. Ever. You’ll say: “But it’s a scarce, neutral, global store of value the world needs!” That’s the exact circular loop that defines every structurally Ponzi-like asset: Price up → “See, great store of value!” → New money floods in → Price up → Repeat Snap any link and the entire house of cards collapses to mining cost (or lower — remember every bear market?). Gold? 5,000 years of monetary premium, industrial use, jewelry demand, central-bank reserves, no risk of a better chain obsoleting it. USD? U.S. military, tax requirements, deepest bond market on Earth. Bitcoin? A 2009 whitepaper and a prayer. Everything else — “sound money,” “digital gold,” “unconfiscatable” — is just the latest narrative you tell yourself so you don’t have to face the raw economic structure. It’s not fraud. It’s not a scam. It’s not even malicious. It’s simply the most transparent, voluntary, pristine greater-fool wealth-transfer engine ever engineered. Early entrants get life-changing wealth. Late entrants hold the bag when the music stops. And yes — I’ll be right here quoting this exact post when the next cycle drags in the next desperate cohort at 2-5× today’s price, telling them the same uncomfortable truth. The structure never changes. Only the story does. Trade accordingly. Or don’t. Your bags.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by RoadToAMillionClub
2
The Collapse of the Bitcoin ExperimentFew are prepared for this scenario, yet it's the most probable one: Bitcoin is heading for a major crash in the coming years. What was once a revolutionary idea has become a centralized shitcoin, failing nearly every purpose envisioned by its creator. Aside from gamblers and speculators, hardly anyone truly believes in Bitcoin anymore. The experiment has failed — it's time to accept its fate. This will be the biggest short trade in the history. 05 June, 2025 Doomsie
Short
by doomsie
1
Why MicroStrategy Will FailIf you listen to Michael Saylor, watch what he is doing with his financial engineering, and "learn about Bitcoin" it seems incredibly obvious that... MicroStrategy WILL NOT fail . At least, that is what I have been told by those that stand to gain massively from Bitcoin's price appreciation. It makes a lot of sense: corner the market of Bitcoin supply => force the price into "discovery" mode and everyone that believed in him and Bitcoin will be rich to the point they feel they deserve for being so prescient with their wisdom. The history of finance does not bode well for such absolute certainty... I began shorting Microstrategy with Puts over a year ago. "Being early and being wrong are often indistinguishable in trading/investing." I've lost money. But that did not dissuade me from calling BS on this scheme. Up until November 22, 2024 it had been a small trade that had not worked out so far. But on that day Saylor gave a CNBC interview (highly recommend looking it up) where he talked about their "core business", their "Bitcoin reactor", "selling volatility", and lots of complex financial jargon. To some, this might come across as brilliance. To me, having been in markets for a long time and studying their history it was patently obvious he was doing the classic, "if you can't amaze with brilliance then dazzle with bullshit" tactic. This was not a scam, nor a ponzi, nor a fraud... in absolute terms. We don't actually have a word for it. But it needs a derogatory term because people are going to lose money buying into it. I don't believe in karma. What I believe is that people cannot help be themselves and repeat their character flaws and patterns. This is not the first time Saylor has engaged in "financial engineering". Over 20 years ago MSTR (same company, same symbol) got caught by the SEC for doing much the same thing a Enron in their accounting practices. They were levied a big fine and the stock dropped -60% in a single day. Roughly two weeks later... the entire dot-com bubble imploded. Was MSTR the catalyst for this collapse? Unknown. But it certainly did not help keep the bubble going... Once again Saylor is exploiting the financial system. Or as gamers would call it; "clever use of game mechanics." There is nothing illegal about what he is doing (that is apparent). It's all out in the open. But it's leverage. Lots of leverage. MSTR ran out of simple debt and have found other ways to make cash to buy Bitcoin. Every week they keep "buying the top" as cheerleaders for this asset; Bitcoin. Trying to get others to join in their crusade to... I guess get it to $1 million now. Still valuing it in fiat terms while claiming to be changing finance (do they still want to do that anymore with Blackrock being their best backer? Unknown. I left all my Bitcoin Maxi chats as part of a New Year's Resolution to argue less with people on the Internet after 2024. When I left I was still defending my short while they were eagerly buying the dip. With all investments... time will tell. The Trade I have been purchasing Puts in different traunches with different strikes going out all the way to 2027. These long term Puts have their theta offset by selling shorter duration options to keep myself theta positive. This has been great over the last 2 months with increased IV. During the recent drop to $285 I actually found myself delta positive for a day. I wanted to get "more short" and added as much risk as I felt comfortable on the last push up to $380. Now delta negative/theta positive. Where I stop out: $390 is a key volume profile level topside. If price gets back above there I consider myself wrong... for now... and start to unwind risk or hedge more How I manage: I will continue to manage my delta/theta as long as IV makes it fun while always trying to stay negative. Buy long dated puts on pops up; Sell some Puts on every move down. The goal is for MSTR's debt to start getting called this year and they be forced to make some hard choices. This may require Bitcoin and/or the equities market to collapse in 1-2 years. If so; MSTR will be hurt tremendously.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by norok
40
MSTR - Ponzi Loop Will Crash & BurnEvery now and then, I like to say that greed eats brains for breakfast. In the case of MSTR, though, it seems to have state approval to do so. How else could MSTR still be kicking? There’s nothing to chart here. Nada. Zip. This is pure pump-and-dump economics born out of the "perfect storm" of circumstances. Fast money? Sure, it's fast—but definitely not sustainable. It’s also a foolproof recipe for losing not just your shirt, but your pants and maybe even your dignity. Remember GME and all the other “get rich quick” lemming programs? Only a microscopic percentage actually "got rich," and an even tinier fraction stayed rich. Most of them? Just cautionary tales with a hefty dose of regret. Sorry, gamblers… err, "investors." §8-) Instead of betting the farm on people like Michael Saylor, how about this revolutionary idea: use your own brain. Learn chart analysis, develop real skills, and slowly build up a nest egg that’ll still be around when you’re old and gray. But hey, who am I to judge? MSTR SHORT until 0.0001
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by HowToChart
14
TitanX is better designed than #HEX and #XENControversial Take I know. But not really surprising. We are used to seeing our phones getting better every year. Hex was designed by Richard Heart well over 5 years ago -- and was amongst the first generation of Yield and self storage #DEFI protocols. XEN was a fair launch idea... mint your own supply. A slight improvement on HEX... but disastrous in price. On #Pulsechain we have seen numerous projects launch pre funded, with token sacrifices with with horrendous price charts. TitanX has fairly launched on the most battle tested blockchain. U mine your own supply. But the miners have a real cost to them. so the system cant be gamed by a couple computer nerds like in Xen and create a horrible price chart. The dividends could entice people to believe they could potentially generate side income with this system. #Pumpamental There is scarcity and mining difficulty built in of course.. #Pumpamental Already on social media I am seeing the beginning of cult like behaviour #Bullish So the more I scratch the surface of this protocol The more impressed I am with the thought that has gone into the design. This could definitely blow up in my face, and potentially your face if you decide to interact with this protocol, and the Ethereum gets rugged. It has been audited 3 times... but i have not got to reading those yet... So proceed with caution but also optimism at the potential this indeed could go viral. Or at least attract quite alot of capital.... Let's take it month by month
T
by BallaJi
BNB 2days/candle Binance Ponzi 50% correction🔸Hello traders, let's review the daily price chart for BNB today. Prior strong downtrend conditions then compression into rising wedge in downtrend signals further losses. 🔸BNB CZ took down FTX previously, however as a domino effect now Binance is under heavy scrutiny by global regulators and SEC in US. Things are not looking good for Binance and the Ponzi BNB token, previously artificially inflated by CZ/Binance manipulations is under heavy sell side pressure. expecting 50% correction. 🔸Recommended strategy for BNB/Binance bears: Short the Ponzi token at market, after breakdown of rising wedge we are hanging by a thread near 200/220 USD, once this final S/R is broken, free fall mode until 130/140 USD, expecting a waterfall dump and deflation of the artificially propped ponzi BNB. final TP bears is 130/140 USD. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
BINANCE:BNBUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
31
Why is APEcoin still in Top 100 Cryptocurrencies?!?!If you haven`t read the APE Coin Growth Thesis: Then you should know that APEcoin's current market cap of $2.3 billion and its position within the top 100 cryptocurrencies seem overinflated and unjustified. The project's reliance on non-fungible tokens (NFTs) raises concerns about its intrinsic value and utility within the broader crypto ecosystem. Unlike other cryptocurrencies that offer tangible benefits, APEcoin's NFTs fail to provide significant value. While NFTs have gained popularity, their long-term sustainability and practical applications remain questionable. APEcoin's NFTs lack a compelling narrative or clear use case that would justify its market capitalization. In contrast to APEcoin, top-ranking cryptocurrencies have solid underlying fundamentals, offering functionalities such as decentralized applications, smart contracts, or efficient cross-border transactions. APEcoin's limited value proposition puts it at a disadvantage in the highly competitive crypto market. Considering these factors, a market correction or revaluation for APEcoin appears likely. A more realistic price target of $1.04 is in line with its current value and potential market demand. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Short
by TopgOptions
ETC Ethereum Classic | Why Forks are Useless CreationsForked cryptocurrencies, which emerge as a result of splitting from the original blockchain, often face an uphill battle to establish themselves as valuable and distinct entities. One of the primary concerns is that forks are perceived as redundant copies of the original blockchain, lacking the same level of innovation, utility, and market demand. This perception leads some to believe that forks will struggle to gain widespread adoption and maintain significant value. Additionally, forks often encounter difficulties in building and sustaining communities and resources. Divided communities and limited developer support can hinder the progress of forked projects, preventing them from achieving the same level of growth and ecosystem development as the original chain. These challenges can also impact liquidity and network effects, making it harder for forked cryptocurrencies to compete effectively. Furthermore, the original blockchain, from which the forked cryptocurrency originates, usually retains its dominance in terms of market capitalization, brand recognition, and developer activity. This creates a significant hurdle for forks to overcome, as they face strong competition from the established and widely adopted original chain. The success of the original chain can overshadow the forked projects, diminishing their perceived value and hindering their ability to gain traction. In my opinion ETC Ethereun Classic could easily reach $8.30. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Short
by TopgOptions
1
TON Toncoin has been classified as a security by the SEC !The SEC's classification of Telegram's Gram (TON) as a security highlights the regulatory scrutiny surrounding certain cryptocurrencies. This classification implies that Gram tokens are considered investment contracts, subjecting them to securities regulations and requirements. Such regulatory actions aim to protect investors and ensure compliance within the evolving cryptocurrency landscape. It reinforces the importance for cryptocurrency projects to navigate the regulatory landscape diligently and ensure compliance with applicable securities laws to foster investor confidence and industry growth. My Price Target for TON is $0.73. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Short
by TopgOptions
1
TRX Potential Death Spiral similar to Terra LUNAHistory repeats itself for those who haven't learned from it. SEC Charges Crypto Entrepreneur Justin Sun and his Companies for Fraud and Other Securities Law Violations. Eight celebrities also charged for illegal touting of Sun’s crypto asset securities. But let`s say the market doesn`t care about he Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit, like we can see reflected in TRX price right now, but... The reason for the potential collapse of TRX Tron is their stablecoin, USDD. According to their website, USDD is secured by the over-collateralization of multiple mainstream digital assets (e.g. TRX , BTC , and USDT). The total value of collateralized assets is significantly higher than that of USDD in circulation with the collateral ratio set at 120%. This is the USDD collateral: TRX 10,929,535,279 BTC 14,040.6 = about $313Mil USDT 29,964,253 USDC 39,719,839 so besides TRX , the total amount of other collateral is $383Mil for a stablecoin that has a mk cap of $724Mil. Now let`s say TRX drops to the Covid level of $0.0072, which is not unrealistic in my opinion. Then the TRX collateral of 10,929,535,279 coin will be worth $78,692,654. Assuming that BTC won`t go lower, then still the liquid collateral of USDD will be around $462Mil for a mk cap now of $724Mil, which will result in a huge depegging od the "stablecoin". Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Short
by TopgOptions
1
PEPE Coin | A Whale Sold PEPE at 52% Loss !A substantial loss was incurred by a whale who sold over 400 billion PEPE tokens at a 52% loss. The sale involved the transaction of 468.5 billion PEPE tokens, in exchange for 109 ETH valued at $190,000 and 237.5 thousand USDT. The unfortunate outcome of this transaction left the whale with a significant loss. On May 9, the whale withdrew approximately $890,000 worth of PEPE tokens from the KuCoin exchange. In my view, there appears to be a significant downward trajectory ahead. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Short
by TopgOptions
It’s the hard block lifeIt’s the hard block life for us. It’s the hard block life for us! ‘Stead of breakouts, We get bricked! ‘Stead of growing, We get grift! It’s the hard block life! It has been a tough week for crypto, so I have been meditating upon my 3D-Printed Shiba Inu Statue and this revelation of a 3-year exit plan came to me. It will provide me a reminder of the common sentiment and signs throughout the next cycle to watch out for if things repeat themselves yet again. I believe the only real value that bitcoin has provided to the world is the halving events. If bitcoin never had halvings then no one would’ve ever cared about it. At the end of the day, all humanity wants is a good ol’ Ponzi Scheme. But bitcoin is no Ponzi Scheme, no, it’s the greatest Ponzi of them all. Because it has a guidebook on how to actually make money from it embedded into it. The pattern has been very simple every time, buy before the halving, sell about a year after. But if it’s so easy though, then why do people loose money? Well, the greatest challenge is falling into the trap that bitcoin will actually change this world for the better and revolutionize currency and end tyranny and money printing and inflation and taxes and government corruption! Lawl naw. None of that really matters to people. All anyone ever wants is growth and liquidity. A good example is why would a worthless dilution coin like doge get a huge pump like it did the past couple years? It's simple. The new gen missed out on those big bitcoin gains and wanted a pump of their own, so pick the most meme-able small cap crap and you will be good to go. So, let’s look forward to the next halving event to attract a new generation of higher fools, to then sell the top to because that’s what this world’s designed for! Maybe we’ll even get a new worthless coin to ride? *** I have a feeling though that this next potential top in bitcoin could be it’s last. Crypto is continuously running out of higher fools with it’s increasing market cap, the only fools left with the large enough capital to put a dent in the price are corporations and governments. I know there’s no shortage of incompetence going around in government, so that gives us lots of hope. Imagine the irony that the governments are the ones to buy the top as everyone else dumps on them? I also have a crackpot chart below to back up this feeling too. I don’t know what the reason for its downfall will be, maybe a great new tech superior to crypto itself comes out and everyone dumps to flock to that, or maybe our governments from a global totalitarian coalition and ban use of all crypto apart from their own FED sponsored “regulated” Inflation Coin, or it could just go stagnant and sit at the higher prices for eternity with the halving events being the only thing to sustain its value. Many people are also thinking that crypto is bottomed now after that dump and it is smooth sailing from here, but I have my doubts. I think we could eventually see a small rally and get to May prices, but not likely to see new highs until the halving. This area seems to be a good accumulation area though, but I won’t be surprised if bitcoin can hit 12-13k, I’ll even sell my exclusive 3D-Pinted Shiba Inu Statue on opensea to buy more bitcoin if it hits those prices. I’m also glad I didn’t fall for that crypto “breakout” that dumped after the latest crypto ponzi scheme bust. I always had a feeling it was a phony breakout because doge seemed to be the thing fueling the rise in crypto, and as they say, “A rocket can’t be fueled by a dumpster fire.” I was curious though where the circus got all that liquidity for doge to rally so well. Anyways, the recent flat consolidation reminded me of 2018 and the big dump following it. I was wondering if it would continue dumping to 12k area with this pennant pattern and then watch for a nice cup-like pattern to form: It is great that everyone hates crypto again. Historically when crypto ponzi scams tank the price, it usually has been a good time to buy hard. I’m just waiting a tad longer just to see if anyone else goes bust as margin calls and bank runs tend to have a waterfall effect. Finally, the Crackpot Chart Fib Spiral Now with this hocus pocus, you can see the fib spiral curiously acting as resistance all throughout bitcoin’s existence. Now we are nearing the peak of the upside of the spiral. Does this mean bitcoin will fall with the spiral? Only time will tell. Something I will be watching years from now though. Breakout Blocks I don’t know what to call these but they’re the purple blocks that show the previous high and end when the chart breaks above that. One worry for bitcoin is its starting to break down below the latest and thinnest purple box. This has never happened before! This shows me that the structure of bitcoin is slowly crumbling. The boxes are getting thinner and thinner too, obviously showing less and less returns as time goes. Which means less and less interest from the hopeful gamblers! Rising Wedges Bitcoin likes to make a rising wedge and then break down out of that rising wedge to form a new, less steep one. We can now see that bitcoin has broken out of the yellow rising wedge and I predict it will follow something like the green one. I don’t expect it to ever cross back into the yellow wedge again if it continues this pattern. Stoch Triangles Next, we see the triangle patterns on the stoch that I highlighted. These are very cool and show clear moments of breakouts and breakdowns. What’s amazing is its reliability and how frequently bitcoin has done this. I’ve also seen these patterns in other stocks and when I ignored them, I sorely regretted it. IMHO it is the most reliable and powerful indicator pattern I know of for bitcoin. And it is nearing a breakout very soon, so keep an eye on that too. TLDR: Just buy before the halving, sell a year later. Don’t believe in anything or trust anyone, especially these kinds.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Lynxys
4