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Probability

Odds and Psychology.Based on "Think fast and slow", people have two system thinking. System-1 is autonomous, always working in background (ie unconsciousness), lazy, intuitive, fast, has stereotypes. System-2 is rational, hard problem solving, takes effort and energy, cuts trough the BS, etc (ie consciousness). Based on another book called "superforcasters" and some dude I forgot his name, best approach for odds is to have simple system; where 100% certain. 93% almost certain. 75% probable. 50% about even (or maybe). 25% probably not. 7% almost certainly not. 0% impossible. All forecast are subjective guesses. The catch; If you think something is 100% - you would go allin with max lever. (If you dont) your beliefs or opinion go against your actions. If you dont believe it's wise to go allin - then odds are not actually 100%. If you are stressed about 93% spot, then maybe it might not be 93% after all. (1:14). In key SPX areas, based on business cycle and TNX, logic says one odds (or System-2) and your intuition (or feel) says differently. You are either too bearish or too bullish. This is a simple representation of concept. Another key concept is that TIME <----> PROBABILITY are at opposite sides of coin. The closer or far away in time something - more or less risk, ie higher or lower probability.
SP:SPXEducation
by citsvar
SOLUSD: Snapping Back to $210 | 70.70% Probability!BINANCE:SOLUSD has been drawing a lot of attention in the crypto space in the past few days due to its integration with NASDAQ:PYPL Let's have a technical analysis breakdown: BINANCE:SOLUSD According to my Free Probability Indicator , There's a 70.00% chance it could climb back over $210 and beyond, which is pretty much encouraging! If you're thinking about trading LINK, here's what you should consider: Entry: Wait for clear signs that the price is going up again. Once you're confident the trend is changing, consider buying LINK. I'm currently looking at the 8H Equilibrium to get positioned. Exit: To protect yourself from drawdowns, consider setting a "trailing stop-loss." This will automatically trigger a sell order if the price starts dropping again after you buy, securing your running profits. Risk Management: Ensure you're not risking more money than you can afford to lose. Only invest what you're comfortable with and consider how much you're willing to lose if things don't go as planned. This isn't financial advice, just some insights to help you make informed decisions. Always do your own research before investing in anything.
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by Fractalyst
1
DXY showing its hand - possible bullish move for the DollarOn the daily chart, market structure was broken towards the upside and we had multiple higher lows formed on DXY. We can also see that DXY is currently holding an area of support. Based off of pure price action, we can expect a potential move to the upside. Two easy targets are outlined but price can go as high as the third target. It is important to remember that a higher timeframe idea like this can take a long time to play out. Also, keep in mind that market sentiment can change at any moment based off of economic news drivers and geopolitical events however, If I had to pick a direction for DXY right now, I would pick higher prices.
TVC:DXYLong
by th3gunn3r22
BTC.D probabilityhi everybody dominance in daily time frame is still ranging in that yellow static channel I drew before . after a fake break out from static channel it just hit the green bullish channel top and bounce down. I have indicated everything that happens before in my previous ideas you can check them all. now it's struggling with static channel ( yellow ) midline. if candles could handle to break it down: the next target would be the bottom of the green channel if candles could break fork midline to up: the next target could be about the top of the green channel or next level ( green line ) of the fork. time will show us every thing the important thing is whether it goes up or down almost all the altcoins will affect in extra times . so be careful and save some of your profits be happy
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by ZorgOros
What do you do when your trading plan fails? Yesterday I wrote about a beautiful chart pattern that was forming on the Bitcoin daily time frame that ended up failing not long after I wrote the post. That kind of thing will shake a trader to their core, especially if they thought it was going to play out, but ended up losing their shirt. This is why it is important to set stop losses, so that if the trade does go the other way, you will be out of the trade before it gets too bad. This is simply called risk management, and is one of the biggest things that any trader, especially new traders need to master. Trading is a business of statistics and probabilities. Just because something has worked for you in the past, doesn't mean it is going to work for you every time. So when something like a bullish pattern that you have traded many times fails, you have to reassess and move on to the next trade. Out of 100 trades, that pattern may only work 6 or 7 times which gives you a 60-70% chance of it working in your favor. That's how it works, nothing is ever 100% in this game. So you always have to be ready for things to not work out the way you think they should. If they don't work out, don't freak out! Just learn from your mistakes, readjust your plan, and move along to the next trade! Hopefully things like this will help you better understand the importance of a good risk management plan. Be safe out there everyone and trade logically!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by thelogicaldude
How we have been trading EURUSD D1How we have been trading EURUSD D1 (Daily chart) with our indicators + hand-drawn trend lines. After 10 years of R&D (we have been testing different indicators every day for a decade), we have developed our own Suite of 26 indicators. Here are just a few of them. Indicators names (from top to bottom): - Strength Shows the strength of the market, the direction, pullbacks, equilibrium, and flats. - Bear&Bull Powers Shows the battle between the bears and the bulls. - Angle Indicates the direction and angle of the trend and the pullbacks. - Template Our main central indicator simplifying charts and bringing clarity. - Steepness Displays how steep the trend is and comments: Going Up/Down | Trending | Strong/Weak | Pulling Back | Retracement | Flat | 75% Blue Background | ... - Odds 11 indicators calculating the odds. - Probability 75 indicators calculating the probabilities.
by ascension
How we have been trading Bitcoin D1How we have been trading Bitcoin (Daily chart) with our indicators + hand-drawn trend lines. After 10 years of R&D (we have been testing different indicators every day for a decade), we have developed our own Suite of 26 indicators. Here are just a few of them. Indicators names (from top to bottom): - Strength Shows the strength of the market, the direction, pullbacks, equilibrium, and flats. - Bear&Bull Powers Shows the battle between the bears and the bulls. - Angle Indicates the direction and angle of the trend and the pullbacks. - Template Our main central indicator simplifying charts and bringing clarity. - Steepness Displays how steep the trend is and comments: Going Up/Down | Trending | Strong/Weak | Pulling Back | Retracement | Flat | 75% Blue Background | ... - Odds 11 indicators calculating the odds. - Probability 75 indicators calculating the probabilities.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ascension
Take Two For Buyzing ;)Hey trader, I hope you having a profitable week. If not, try this: But first, let me explain how these trades will be triggered. If the price bullish breaks and retests he 4H Half a Bat Neckline and 1st 4H Key Lvl (1st and 2nd trade signals) after bouncing off the 50 and 8 MA’s; according to the 4 hour: the price will be in prep to rally for the half a bats 3 level trend together for the 200 MA; and according to the daily: the price would be bullish running above the double bottoms 2nd leg neckline and short-term MA’s - in prep to rally for the patterns neckline or accumulation phase, so once that happens, then you should BUY → E.1 & E.2 That's it for today. I hope you found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section (below), I'd love to know your thoughts! Stay Blessed Baby, Sphatrades.
Long
by Doji-2k1