EURUSD Soft Targets reached, Profits taken on a quarter of total position. second target almost hit, wait and see how it develops. Stop loss set to profit levels so the position is now completely safe either way
Profittaking
Gold - The air is getting very thinAfter breaking through the six year downtrend-line in the last week of July the gold price continuously gained momentum and was finally able to break through the strong resistance zone around 1,300 USD in the last week of august. This super bullish breakout fueled the rally in the last 10 trading days and gold has now reached my first target zone around 1,350 USD.
Between 1,345 USD and 1,355 USD gold is meeting a strong cluster of resistance in a very overbought fashion. Although prices are still climbing along the upper Bollinger Band (1,355 USD) on the daily chart they are way above the weekly Bollinger Band (1,330 USD). Yes, you can see up to five sometimes even seven candles above or below these bands in a row but this is very unusual and probability clearly speaks against any immediate more upside.
On the positive the daily stochastic is bullish embedded which has the uptrend locked in as long as both lines of the oscillator remain above 80. But on the 4h chart I have spotted a growing negative divergence meaning the stochastic oscillator is not confirming the recent new highs anymore.
I would be surprised to see gold close the week above 1,350 USD. Instead I think we might witness a first wave of profit taking rather very soon.
If instead gold can continue to climb the next target zone sits between 1,370 USD and 1,380 USD. Yes, even a quick intraday spike towards 1,400 USD is possible but in my humble view very unlikely here.
My advise is to tighten your stops (at least 1,334 USD) and wait for the next larger dip which should bring gold towards or even below 1,300 USD again.
After a pullback we might see gold moving towards 1,380 USD which could be the final 5th wave of this rally followed by a larger and more complex correction/consolidation.
Until spring 2018 I still expect gold to move towards 1,500 USD.
GBP Friday Profit TakingI have no intention of trading this. But I want to monitor it. We say huge gains in GBP this week b/c of the snap election announcement. Seeing as it's a Friday with a large risk event this weekend(French election). I suspect there will be profit taking for GBP.
AUD/USD downtrend continuation Bearish pennant formed indicating a continuation of the downtrend. This market is coming up to an area of resistance which should trigger some movement to the downside and make a new low. NFP later this week so hopefully out before that.
Even more bad indicators for FBHistorically when FB reaches this vortex negative level, the stock drops an average of 6.71%. FB is currently in a bearish pennant and due to break out up or down. Based on historics, the pennant, and potential support levels, it looks like a drop to 108.23 is highly likely over the next few weeks.
I am slightly skeptical of the pennant break within the next few trading days, but those believing Trump will reduce capital gains tax rates may conduct massive profit taking for calendar year 2017 while there is profit to be had in order to reap the reward come tax time in Spring of 2018. Large amounts of profit taking can become the catalyst for a near term drop in markets, or a correction which could lead to a greater than 6% drop.
Short GBPJPY going into 2017After the rally in both USD and big US indices it's time for profit taking and rebalancing portfolio's going into the new year. This will pull indices down and make the yen as a safehaven benefit. I Believe this is a good shorting position since it's trapped in a range for now.
