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Rangebound

Bitcoin: 10K Short Squeeze Location Still In Play?Bitcoin is still NOT in a trend relative to how we evaluate the bigger technical picture. This piece of information alone serves as an important guide when it comes to managing our recent swing trade long. The aim of this article is to provide insight into the best practices and mindset that has produced consistent results throughout the recent bearish and bullish conditions of Bitcoin. It is important to understand the objective of our LONG only strategy. We did not choose to work from one side of Bitcoin because of some inflexible opinion of the future. We made this strict choice because using leverage, and being subjected to the individual rules and whims of each exchange does NOT appeal to our risk profile. It is a personal preference that helps to construct boundaries around our decision making process for our swing trade strategy (which is NOT the same as our position trade or inventory strategy). What many new traders and investors fail to realize is that timing ANY market over the short term is a game of psychology, yours relative to the market crowd. The game is set in an uncertain environment that generates a constant flow of information accompanied by a high degree of randomness. The ONLY element we can control is our own behavior which translates into one thing: HOW WE MANAGE RISK. It is an environment where YOU must create the rules, and NOT succumb to the whims and impulses of our human programming (intuition, feelings, bias). So we have rules that define what a trend and what a consolidation is. Bitcoin has been gyrating within a range of corrective consolidation since June. NOTHING HAS CHANGED, even though your friends who are publishing 1 hour charts may suggest otherwise. By sticking to our rules on how to navigate a range bound environment, we can operate with REALISTIC expectations as far as risk (where to place stop orders) and profit targets. All the other experts? Too busy projecting the next outrageously unrealistic high or low. Our mindset and strategy has allowed us to share two swing trade long ideas over the previous two weeks. One triggered at 10,435 while the other at 10,255. I can't provide any more specifics, but I can say our profit targets for both of these ideas are below the 12K resistance zone. These long ideas developed in line with our premise that any test of the 10K (or 9750) support zone is a high probability reversal location for swing trade LONGS. And so far, even in the face of seemingly ever bearish price action and patterns, our premise still holds true. Can Bitcoin break the support and revisit 9K? ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. We trade our premise until the market proves otherwise, and if our premise is negated in a dramatic way, (major sell off) we have stops in place to PROTECT our capital. One loss will only set our performance back by 3% which is still way ahead of being red for the year. Inexperienced investors and traders may laugh at a 10% return because they do not yet realize the weight and value of CONSISTENCY, and stability of lower risk trades. They would rather have LOTS of action, and struggle to keep any profits they randomly generate (its more entertaining, I guess). Looking ahead, as long as price maintains itself around 10K (this includes testing 9750), we will continue to look for long setups. We prefer to align our trades with the favorable probabilities presented by the market. And when those probabilities no longer favor our strategy, we DON'T jump to a new strategy. Instead we STAND ASIDE and WAIT for probabilities to become favorable once again. In other words, this is how we CONTROL our behavior in an uncertain and highly random environment. We don't REACT to every news item, Twitter guru, or price spike, we just let the market CONFORM to our rules and position ourselves for a greater chance of a positive outcome. 9750 is the .382 retrace of the entire bullish swing originating from the 3150 low. The 9806 to 10338 area is a minor support zone relative to the recent bullish swing that began in July. Our focus is on the probability of bullish reversals off this area. Either it works out, or it doesn't. It is up to the market now, not up to us. Reacting to any bearish signal may work on occasion, but it is simply not within the scope of our rules to behave in such a way. You don't have to be in every move to generate a consistent return, and our track record reflects this. Are you in this to donate your capital to those who can control their behavior more effectively than you? Understand the psychology that drives markets and how it expresses itself on a chart. Once you comprehend the meaning of this, you will be in a much better position to capitalize on the herd mentality rather than contribute to it.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
9
Bitcoin: Another Fake Out Or The Rally To 20K?Bitcoin is nearing our second target that we shared as part of our alternate swing trade idea almost a week ago. Why are we not calling for 20K or some other unrealistic target? Again it has everything to do with the proportions of the recent price structure. The goal of this analysis is to provide a sense of perspective and context as they relate to short term timing strategies like swing trades. Why Not 20K? It begins with Elliott Wave. That is the foundation that provides a broad road map that helps to define locations and probabilities of how the market is LIKELY to react, NOT definitely react. Those who knock this framework do not recognize its value because they are too focused on precise outcomes. It is usually dismissed as too subjective, since there are so many different interpretations of the same situation. The key to Elliott Wave is to use it in a general sense, NOT in a super detailed complex way. We used it in a general sense when we were able to OBJECTIVELY identify a broader 5 Wave impulse structure (which peaked at 14K). That structure represents a large degree Wave 1. After Wave 1, naturally comes Wave 2. Wave 2's are CORRECTIVE. Knowing this tipped us off AFTER the 14K peak was confirmed, that the following price activity was going to most LIKELY be range bound, noisy, and full of fake outs. We anticipated this type of price action for weeks. How Did This Help Us? Since we had REALISTIC expectations of how Wave 2 is likely to play out, we were able to measure support levels that were relevant and HIGH probability for BULLISH reversal activity. So while the "gurus" are calling for shorts at 9750, we know better to look for longs. Elliott Wave provides the starting point, and then we refine it to get a better sense of probabilities and what to expect. The 9750 support is NOT precise. Anyone looking for precision in this game are in the wrong game. Price went below 9200 before exhausting itself BUT what kept us short term bullish was the fact that buyers came in relatively quickly. Just look at the candles in the area. The most recent was a bullish pin bar which completed a double bottom formation. Nothing can be any clearer than that (amusingly I was criticized for not knowing how double bottoms work). Don't Focus On The Reward Alone. We are more aligned with the market through its own proportions. That is where REALISTIC targets come from relative to the time frame you are operating within. For this reason, we chose 10,535 and 11,080. They are well below the next relevant resistance zone that begins around 11,608. Does that mean Bitcoin will stop and reverse lower at these levels? WE HAVE NO IDEA. In fact, since the broader structure is bullish, there is a good chance price can attempt to push back into the 12Ks. We are more concerned with our reward/risk rather than reward alone. If we are wrong, and Bitcoin goes higher, we have still exited with a profit while having no more exposure to risk. How many times have people had an opportunity to take profits while they are available, only to watch the trade give everything back plus more? These are short term swing trades, NOT investments. Our track record is a reflection of this important best practice. The key to giving a trade a chance to exhibit a larger scale break out and run to 20K relates to the probabilities of the wave structure. At the moment, structural evidence suggests we are still in a Wave 2 which remember is corrective. Fake outs and noise are still to be EXPECTED. We will NOT know that Wave 3 is in effect UNTIL AFTER THE FACT. The price structure has to prove itself. Evidence will come in the form of a major resistance level being compromised and right now that level is the 14K swing high. When that break out occurs, probability will be in favor of a run to 20K in a matter of a weeks. Until that happens, we operate with the expectations of a range bound market. In summary, ORIGINAL perspective and context are of prime importance when formulating your own strategy. These elements are best shaped by information that comes directly from the market itself, NOT from any "expert" interpretations or opinions, ESPECIALLY if they are available for FREE. I have a responsibility that prevents me from sharing precise timing details, so instead I try to point to ways that will provide quality information for much more informed decision making. If you are going to criticize, then at least provide clear solutions and examples for the community to LEARN from.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
31
BTC Update! Which direction will price break?Apologize for being absent for the last week or so. Been busy and then had lost internet for a couple of days over weekend. I'm back up and running finally and overall not a ton has happened. Previously we had a low of $8919 marked for where bulls would possibly defend but I still hold our true strongest support is the 7400-7700 range. We fell to $9071 and bounced to $11,112 (essentially a double top with our prior bounce to 11,080). So we have a fairly large range of this 9000-11100 area that we are trading within for 9 days now. Not the easiest to trade much within this range in my opinion. We have now seen the bearish cross of our 12 and 26 EMAs for first time since February and struggling to get and close above these EMAs on daily chart. I personally did enter some BTC right around our current price at 10,200 and thus far have just been hanging onto it and waiting to see if we fall lower to scale into additional positions. But otherwise nothing significant and just patiently waiting for price to make its move back into 11,000's or break down below 9,000. Will update later this week if we can break out of this range (Bulls ideally seeking a higher low here compared to 9071 and then shoot for higher highs. Bears ideally seeking a higher low, lower high and then lower lows). Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
BTC Update! Another EMA rejection. Will bulls hold support againHere we go yet again. We've been watching this range for a few days and expected a 12 EMA rejection due to it holding support for so long and that often becomes resistance. This is now multiple rejections from our 12 EMA on daily. Similar to last post however, the more times a support or resistance is tested, it will eventually cave. The bulls have held support now down at $7427, $7450 and $7508 and now have resistances at $8097, $8134, and the 12EMA which continues to lower. Personally anything within the $7500 to 12EMA resistance range isn't of great interest to me so have remained patient. One can certainly seek bottom fishing plays along support and sells along 12 EMA and many traders have taken advantage of this for multiple trades over the last week. Just not something I have personally worked and will patiently wait for a break above or a flush below for a potential oversold bounce trade. Lets see if bears can drive price back towards support and if bulls can defend it or will the bulls retest our EMA resistance yet again? Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
EURJPY LOOKING FOR A PUSH INTO 126.000The 124.750 highlighted region is looking to give way relatively soon. On Friday we saw a breakout of the counter trendline followed by a retest which managed to hold back above, currently the top highlighted region is providing some strong resistance however, once we do see a strong push to the upside the probability of pushing higher into the target region of 126.000 is highly likely. Confirmations on the 8hr and Daily timeframe are needed in order to enter the market. The moving averages are crossed over to the upside and continuing to provide dynamic support for the Euro . Great risk/reward ratio of 1:1.87 once all technical factors fall into place.
Long
by INSIDEFX
BTC Range Bound and DownLike the tile says I am looking for $BTC to be range bound to short over the next ten to twenty weeks. $BTC was trapped in this very location back in 2017 where it spent nine weeks and traded from early August to the middle of October before it broke out of its range. $BTC is still holding under the 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) where it broke under back in February of 2018 which is significant because $BTC has not been under the 200 EMA since August of 2015. I am using a logarithmic scale on my chart because I have it on good authority that the institutional investors use this type of scale to make technical analysis decisions. Whats the importance of how institutional money uses charting to conduct technical analysis? It's important because it's institutional money that is pushing and driving the market. How can that be, you ask? Well, the crypto space is like the wild wild west. An unregulated decentralized space that's prime for old school market manipulation. Truly a shark's wet dream. Think about it for a minute. Who knew that the CME and the CBOE were going to launch $BTC futures contracts and be given approval to do so? Not many people that's who. The Winklevoss twins knew and many of their friends and family not to mention the top leaders and members of the SEC, FINRA, CFTC, CME and the CBOE just to name a few. It probable took two to three years of work, research and technological innovation to stand up these new financial instruments. Then they partner with Gemini? Why would Wall Street use Gemini's auction price for bitcoin to quote their $BTC futures contracts? Gemini is by far not the best or largest exchange by volume or any other factor for that matter. One could speculate that the twins are obedient servants to the master and will heel at command! Only the top big money traders were invited to trade the open of the contracts launch. How do I know this? When I found out the contracts went live I tried to trade them through my TD Ameritrade account and was rejected so I called customer support and was politely told to pound sand up my ass because my money was no good at the bar! That's when I realized that some of the investors that we invited to trade it first were like cut bait and just there to provide equity for the sharks. You know how the old saying goes right? If you look around the table and you cant find the mark then the mark is you. This also helped me avoid getting caught up in the FOMO and getting trapped in positions where I would have to DCA like crazy just to get back to break even. See this old pump and dump has been around along time and it goes back tens of thousands of years. It's human psychology and the Oligarchy are masters of that psychology and the manipulation there of. If you go and look at the CFTC commitments of traders reports you will see the smart money was heavy short from jump street and are still heavy short. Add that information with the massive advertising campaign that started back in August 2017 and led up to the contract open and you have a classic boiler room pump and dump. Which was also perfect timing to get paid just before Christmas. I'm sure that in the small circle of the Oligarchy the Christmas of 2017 will live in infamy. You can relate this back to the Bugs Bunny Cartoon's. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em! The Oligarchy realized the power of Bitcoin and the future implications that the loss of control over the established monetary system would have on their way of life and their suffocating choke hold over humanity. They realized that the spark had already been lit and the revolution is on! Since they were not invited to the party they devised a plan to slow the train down long enough to jump aboard and ride to uncharted territory. They paid their whores well just look at the twins and others like Jamie Dimon and how he sold that ass like a dirty gutter slut! Yea I said it Bitch! The institutional money (Sharks, Whales, Oligarchy) have been buying physical $BTC since they made the decision to launch Bitcoin Futures contracts over three years ago. When price peaked over $19,000 they were taking profits selling physical $BTC on the exchanges and shorting $BTC futures contracts via the CBOE and the CME. The $BTC price back in 2015 averaged around $250.00 a Bitcoin. That's the primary reason Bitcoin could fall back between $1,000 to $1,500 because there is no big money to defend price until much lower levels. One week after the $BTC Futures contract opened on December 19, 2017 there were 828 contracts long compared to 2,199 contracts short. The 828 long's were controlled by 18 individual traders compared to the 2,199 short's that were controlled by just 9 individual traders. This correlates perfectly to market statistics that have proven year over year that the majority of traders loose money and the masses are generally wrong. The point of my post is to say that personally I will be moving forward with caution. I will be watching the CFTC's Commitment of Traders weekly reports and waiting for a change in Relative Volume (RVOL). As the chart shows big moves are signaled buy spikes in RVOL. We are still in a active pattern of short pressure signaled by the recent spike in RVOL on the bear candles that I have illustrated above. Stay safe Crypto Soldiers and keep the faith because this is the future of money and they know it. They are riddled with fear each and every day because they know the gig is up and its just a matter of time until mankind unites and overthrows the taskmaster! Power to the people, all people. Viva La Crypto! Disclaimer I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. I am an amateur investor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. The above statements reflect my own views, ideas and opinions and are not not a production of my employer, nor are they affiliated with any broker/dealer or registered investment advisor.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by dipdizzywizzle
2