RTX Forecast 2026: The "Golden Dome" Drives a Cash Flow SupercycRaytheon Technologies (RTX) has delivered a decisive message to the market: cash is king, and the defense supercycle is accelerating.
Following a Q4 2025 earnings beat highlighted by $7.9 billion in full-year free cash flow (FCF), the stock is poised for a breakout. While geopolitical friction and executive tensions with the White House create headlines, the underlying mechanics of Raytheon’s business model are generating immense shareholder value.
Economics: The Free Cash Flow Engine
The financial narrative is straightforward: efficiency. Raytheon reported Q4 revenue of $24.2 billion (+12% YoY), beating market estimates. More importantly, the company is converting revenue into cash at an elite rate.
2025 FCF: $7.9 billion (exceeding targets).
2026 Outlook: Projections of $8.25–$8.75 billion suggest the "operational cleanup" phase is over.
Investors should note the FCF margin expansion. Unlike peers struggling with fixed-price cost overruns, RTX’s mix of high-margin aftermarket services (Collins Aerospace) and mature defense platforms (Patriot/Tomahawk) provides a buffer against inflation. The projected 10% YoY adjusted EPS growth to $6.29 confirms that volume, not just pricing, is driving profit.
Geostrategy: The "Golden Dome" & Arctic Friction
President Trump’s "Golden Dome" initiative, a multi-layered continental missile defense shield, is the most significant catalyst for RTX. As the provider of the "kill chain" sensors (LTAMDS radar) and effectors (SM-3, SM-6), RTX is indispensable to this architecture.
However, execution risks remain. The "Golden Dome" requires northern sensor sites, triggering political friction with Canada and Greenland. If diplomatic rows delay site access, the valuation premium attached to these future contracts could compress. Furthermore, criticism regarding "buybacks vs. capacity" adds a layer of political volatility. RTX management’s commitment to a $500 million capacity expansion in 2026 is a direct strategic response to appease policymakers while protecting the dividend.
Technology: Tomahawk and RAM Modernization
Raytheon’s moat is built on keeping legacy platforms lethal.
* Tomahawk Block V: A recent $380 million Navy contract to modernize Tomahawks ensures relevance through 2029. The Block Va "Maritime Strike" variant can hit moving targets at sea, a critical capability for Indo-Pacific deterrence.
* Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM): A $19.3 million contract for RAM support highlights the demand for ship self-defense. The RAM’s unique "rolling" airframe stabilizes its RF/IR seeker, allowing for "fire-and-forget" intercepts of supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles.
Patent Analysis: Thermal Management
A review of recent patent filings indicates a shift in R&D focus toward thermal management systems for the F135 engine and future propulsion.
The Tech: Patents for "thermo-acoustic" cooling and advanced heat sinks are critical. As sensors and directed energy weapons on 6th-generation fighters demand more power, engines must dissipate massive heat loads without compromising stealth.
The Moat: By controlling the thermal IP of the F135 Engine Core Upgrade (ECU), RTX locks the Pentagon into its propulsion ecosystem for decades, blocking competitors from encroaching on the F-35 program.
Cyber Security: Hardening the Kill Chain
The digitization of the battlefield introduces new vectors for attack. The "Golden Dome" relies on datalinks between space sensors and ground interceptors. RTX is aggressively investing in Zero Trust architectures for its command-and-control systems.
Early testing of legacy systems identified cyber vulnerabilities; today, "modernization" contracts explicitly include hardening against electronic warfare (EW) and spoofing. In a conflict with near-peer adversaries, the ability of a missile to ignore jammed GPS signals via TERCOM (Terrain Contour Matching) is as vital as the warhead itself.
Conclusion: A Defensive Stronghold
Raytheon is navigating a complex environment with high proficiency.
Bull Case: Record backlog ($268B), accelerating FCF, and central role in "Golden Dome" justify a price target of $217+.
Bear Case: Tariffs ($600M impact) and political volatility could cap near-term multiple expansion.
Verdict: BUY. The dip from the January peak offers an entry point. The 2026 FCF guidance provides a safety net, while the geopolitical supercycle offers uncapped upside.
RTX
RTX continues to rise like a missile - is it sustainable?A snippet from ForexTraderPaul's YT Channel Monday Market Update #211: Greenland is cold whilst Defence Stocks are hot.
RTX has led a charmed life - by selling missiles to the west whilst exporting the tech to the east. They've managed to shrug off the court cases and the fines from various departments of the US Gov't.
They've now finished last week closing north of $200. Can it maintain it?
- Core beneficiary of sustained US/NATO defence spending; missiles, air defence and sustainment remain priority areas.
- Pratt & Whitney engine remediation is ongoing but increasingly understood by the market.
- Large backlog supports revenue visibility despite near-term margin pressure.
What traders should be aware of: this trades as a geopolitics-and-budget stock — headline risk matters more than quarter-to-quarter numbers.
Quantum Leap: $QTUM Continuation Pattern has triggered.The Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) is showing a classic bullish continuation pattern after a spectacular 2025. Following a sharp rally, the price has been consolidating in a tight range near its 52-week high of $117.12.
The Technical Setup: We are seeing a clear consolidation phase—likely a cup and handle / or continuation inverse head and shoulders Both have the same price objective—just above the 50-day moving average ($114.36).
This 'pause' in the trend is healthy and suggests that the previous uptrend is ready to resume.
FUNDAMENTAL DRIVER:
2026 is being labeled a potential 'inflection year' for the industry.
IBM is targeting quantum advantage by the end of this year with its 120-qubit Nighthawk processor, while IonQ aims for systems up to 256 qubits.
Diversified Exposure: Unlike betting on a single stock, QTUM holds 84 different companies, spreading risk across hardware, software, and machine learning leaders like Microsoft, Alphabet, and NVIDIA.
Massive Market Growth: Analysts estimate the quantum computing market could grow from $0.8 billion in 2025 to over $1 billion in 2026, with some projections suggesting a nearly $2 trillion value creation potential by 2035.
Sustained Inflows: The ETF has seen net AUM growth of over $2.39 billion in the last year, proving that institutional capital is rotating heavily into this sector.
What's your take? Is the quantum sector ready for another parabolic move?
XAR - Lethality Over LeverageXAR - Lethality Over Leverage: Why Trump’s Buyback Ban is a Bullish Pivot for Defense Mid-Caps
The defense sector just experienced one of the most volatile 24-hour periods in its history. On January 7, 2026, President Trump sent the industry into a tailspin by threatening to ban dividends, stock buybacks, and executive pay over $5 million for contractors failing to modernize production. However, a rapid-fire follow-up proposing a record $1.5 trillion military budget for 2027—a massive leap from the current $900 billion—has fundamentally shifted the technical outlook for key ETFs.
Technical Analysis & Price Targets
ITA (iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense)
As a market-cap-weighted fund, ITA is heavily exposed to "The Primes" (RTX, LMT, NOC). These companies were the primary targets of the buyback rhetoric, causing ITA to plunge before rebounding on the budget news.
Current Action: ITA is testing its 50-day Moving Average (approx. $246).
Bull Case: If it holds this support, the $1.5T budget news could drive a breakout above the $260 resistance.
Price Target: $275.00 by Q2 2026.
XAR (SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense)
XAR uses an equal-weight strategy, making it the "hidden winner" of this policy shift. Smaller, R&D-heavy firms like Kratos (KTOS) and AeroVironment (AVAV) are better positioned to absorb a "modernization" mandate than the debt-heavy giants.
Current Action: XAR shows a strong bullish configuration with EMAs widening. RSI remains healthy near 65, avoiding "overbought" territory despite the rally.
Price Target: $310.00, representing a 15% upside from current levels as mid-caps capture the "Dream Military" expansion.
PPA (Invesco Aerospace & Defense)
PPA offers the most balanced exposure. While its RSI briefly touched "overbought" levels (80+) during the initial euphoria of the Iran/Maduro successes, the subsequent "buyback scare" provided a much-needed cooling period.
Current Action: Consolidation between $160 and $165.
Price Target: $185.00, contingent on the stabilization of capital allocation rules.
Key Takeaways
The "Modernization" Premium: Investors should rotate toward ETFs like XAR that favor companies focused on production capacity over financial engineering.
Geopolitical Tailwind: The military successes in Venezuela and Iran have provided the political capital for the $1.5 trillion budget, creating a high floor for the sector regardless of executive pay caps.
Volatility is the New Base: Expect heavy "headline risk" as the administration negotiates these terms with the Pentagon and defense large caps.
Stay nimble my friends!
Can a $251 Billion Backlog Predict the Future?RTX Corporation has positioned itself at the intersection of escalating global defense imperatives and the recovery of commercial aviation, generating a formidable $251 billion backlog that provides unprecedented revenue visibility. The company reported strong Q3 2025 results with sales of $22.5 billion (up 12% year-over-year) and raised its full-year guidance, driven by double-digit organic growth across all segments. This performance reflects RTX's dual-market advantage: surging defense spending, with global military expenditure reaching $2.7 trillion in 2024 and NATO's new 5% GDP target by 2035, combined with recovering commercial aviation demand projected to exceed 12 billion passengers by 2030.
RTX's technological superiority centers on proprietary Gallium Nitride (GaN) semiconductor innovations that power next-generation radar systems, creating substantial barriers to entry. The company's LTAMDS radar delivers twice the power of legacy Patriot systems while eliminating battlefield blind spots, and the newly launched APG-82(V)X radar enhances fighter aircraft capabilities against advanced threats. Major contracts underscore this dominance, including a $5 billion Army award for the Coyote counter-drone system, which extends through 2033. RTX has committed over $600 million to manufacturing expansion this year alone, with the Redstone Missile Integration Facility expansion specifically targeting increased production of Standard Missile variants and counter-hypersonic solutions.
On the commercial side, Pratt & Whitney's GTF Advantage engine achieved EASA certification in Q4 2025, resolving earlier durability challenges with a design targeting double the time-on-wing compared to prior models. This breakthrough secures RTX's control over the A320neo and A220 fleets, guaranteeing decades of high-margin maintenance, repair, and overhaul revenue. Collins Aerospace's global network of over 70 MRO sites and flexible AssetFlex program capitalizes on supply chain constraints that force airlines to invest more heavily in fleet maintenance rather than new aircraft purchases.
The financial trajectory appears compelling: analysts project free cash flow will surge from $5.5 billion in 2023 to $9.9 billion by 2027, representing 15.5% annualized growth and compressing the price-to-FCF multiple from 31.3x to 17.3x. Wall Street maintains a consensus "Buy" rating across thirteen covering firms with zero sell recommendations. RTX's 60,000-patent portfolio, built on $7.5 billion in annual R&D spending, spans advanced materials, AI, autonomy, and next-generation propulsion, creating a self-reinforcing cycle where investment drives proprietary technology that secures long-term government contracts. With an affirmed BBB+ credit rating and stable outlook, RTX presents a structurally sound investment thesis built on geopolitical necessity, technological moats, and expanding cash generation.
Can Innovation Soar Higher Than the F-22 Itself?Pratt & Whitney, a titan in aerospace propulsion, has clinched a $1.5 billion, three-year contract from the U.S. Air Force to sustain the F119 engines powering the F-22 Raptor, announced on February 20, 2025. This deal is more than a financial milestone; it’s a bold step toward redefining military aviation through innovation and efficiency. With over 400 engines, boasting 900,000 flight hours, under its wing, Pratt & Whitney is tasked with enhancing readiness and slashing costs—ensuring the Raptor remains a predatory force in the skies. Imagine a future where every ounce of thrust is optimized, every maintenance call timed to perfection: this contract dares to make that vision real.
The F119 engine isn’t just machinery; it’s the heartbeat of the F-22, delivering over 35,000 pounds of thrust to pierce altitudes above 65,000 feet and sustain supersonic speeds without afterburners. This supercruise capability stretches fuel efficiency and range, giving pilots an edge in air superiority missions. Coupled with upgrades like next-generation infrared sensors, the F-22 is evolving into a smarter, sharper weapon. But here’s the challenge: can technological leaps like the Usage-Based Lifing (UBL) program, which uses real-time data to predict maintenance needs, truly transform how we sustain such power? With projected savings topping $800 million, Pratt & Whitney suggests yes—pushing readers to ponder the limits of predictive ingenuity.
Financially, this contract is a jetstream of opportunity for Pratt & Whitney, whose 2023 revenue hit $16.2 billion. Against rivals like General Electric and Rolls Royce, this deal fortifies their stronghold in military aviation, promising a steady climb in market influence. Yet beyond dollars, it’s a narrative of ambition: sustaining a fleet that defends nations while pioneering methods that could ripple across industries. What if this blend of power and precision isn’t just about maintaining jets but elevating how we innovate under pressure? The skies are watching—and so should you.
$QTUM Maybe Trying to break out of This Wedge (VCP)I have been long this name for a few months now in my investment account. I have added more today with a stop on the added position size just below today’s low. There are some very big names in this ETF, it invests in AI learning as well as Quantum Computing.
It looks to me to be in a Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP), more popularly called a wedging pattern. I went long more shares as indicated above in anticipation of a break above the declining upper trendline. It also is supported by both the 8 and 20 EMAs and has consolidated to get more inline with the 50 DMA (red).
If you like it, make the trade your own and make sure it fits your trading plan.
Look at the fund holdings in “More About Fund” link supplied by TradingView. Here are some of the names you might recognize: NASDAQ:KLAC NYSE:IBM NASDAQ:PLTR NYSE:RTX NYSE:BABA
From Defiance ETF Website:
QTUM
Index Description: The BlueStar® Machine Learning and Quantum Computing Index (BQTUM) tracks liquid companies in the global quantum computing and machine learning industries, including products and services related to quantum computing or machine learning, such as the development or use of quantum computers or computing chips, superconducting materials, applications built on quantum computers, embedded artificial intelligence chips, or software specializing in the perception, collection, visualization, or management of big data.
RTX Bullish Momentum – Move Toward $131.00 ExpectedNYSE:RTX is demonstrating strong bullish momentum, supported by moving averages and consistent upward strength in price action. The recent push above $125 confirms that buyers are in control, and suggests a likely continuation toward the $131.00 level.
A pullback toward $125–126 could provide an opportunity for buyers to step in, maintaining the rally's trajectory.
This setup aligns with the expectation of a bullish continuation, offering a potential long opportunity if pullbacks or consolidations occur near current levels.
Short time, target 115.83Following weekly and daily chart.
I got a a short signal from my 3 power indicators, but I want to follow the weekly chart, it's cleaner.
TP1 115.83
TP2 108.16 which is more powerful support.
It might seems small amounts but I prefer 3x-5x short, so it's a good opportunity.
I'd stop above 124.
Are you in? Let me know.
Can Defense Industry Giants Turn Global Tensions into SustainablIn a fascinating paradox of modern defense economics, RTX Corporation stands at the epicenter of escalating global security demands while grappling with production constraints that challenge its ability to meet them. With a remarkable $90 billion defense backlog and recent approval for a $744 million missile sale to Denmark, RTX exemplifies how geopolitical tensions are reshaping the aerospace and defense industry landscape. Yet this surge in demand raises profound questions about the sustainability of growth in an industry where production capacity faces inherent limitations.
The company's financial performance tells a compelling story of adaptation and resilience, with its stock attracting increased attention from major analysts and an upward revision of earnings guidance. However, beneath these promising figures lies a more complex narrative: RTX must balance the immediate pressures of global defense requirements against the long-term challenges of production capacity and technological innovation. This delicate equilibrium becomes even more critical as the company serves not just one nation's defense needs, but those of at least 14 allied nations simultaneously.
What emerges is a thought-provoking case study in strategic industrial scaling: How can defense manufacturers like RTX transform short-term geopolitical pressures into sustainable long-term growth? The answer may lie in the company's diversified approach, combining traditional defense contracts with innovative aerospace solutions, while navigating the intricate balance between immediate market demands and long-term strategic planning. This scenario challenges our traditional understanding of defense industry dynamics and forces us to reconsider how global security needs might reshape industrial capacity in the decades to come.
Nasdaq & RTX Charts Suggest Promising Growth AheadNASDAQ
After a powerful uptrend, the stock encountered a significant resistance around the 72 level and plummeted sharply thereafter.
Finding stability near the 47 level, the price surged within a Rising Wedge formation.
Typically, following the appearance of this pattern, a decline occurs post-breakout. This scenario unfolded exactly as expected.
Subsequently, the stock price consolidated and established an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern, signaling a potential reversal in trend.
With two successive breakouts, the stock is currently advancing with strong volume backing.
RTX
We have observed a period of price consolidation within a Symmetrical Triangle pattern in the past.
After the breakout, there was a noticeable price surge, propelling the stock to reach its previous all-time high.
However, the stock faced a significant rejection at that level, leading to another consolidation phase and the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern.
Once the pattern broke down, the price dropped back to its previous support zone.
Since then, the stock has been steadily moving upwards and recently experienced a strong breakout, surpassing its previous resistance level.
At present, the stock is trading at a new all-time high and is anticipated to continue moving even higher.
Raytheon's Defense Division Shines in Q1 a Deep DiveRaytheon Corporation's Q1 2024 earnings reveal impressive growth driven by its defense division, which achieved $6.6 billion in sales and contributed significantly to a $202 billion backlog. Key highlights include major defense system sales to Germany and Ukraine. Despite overall growth, civilian divisions like Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney also performed well but experienced declining profit margins. Raytheon's innovative commercial satellite imagers, launched as part of Maxar's WorldView Legion, promise advanced imaging capabilities for various sectors. The article concludes with a bullish recommendation on Raytheon stock, suggesting long positions with entry at $102.59 targets ranging from $105.93 to $119.00, and a stop-loss at $93.01.
RTX a defense contractor large cap LONGRTX has earnings on April 23rd. It has been on a good trend higher since the last earnings. The
Russian war means US defense contractors will be in a growth mode for the intermediate
future. Depleted stores of weapons systems need to be replenished. Pieces and parts are
needed for damaged systems in need of maintenance. I see RTX and others such as GD and
LMT as good long-term trades or investments. Smaller companies in the areas of robotics and
drones may be worth a look. RTX is at its all-time high but it seems much higher is in its future.
RTX falls on good earnings and defense budget issuesRTX is part of the boom defense sector thriving because of back orders created by
the Russian war against Ukraine. No matter good earnings it fell this week because
of the defense budget debate in Congress. No matter good intents to rein in the
defend spending escalation and spend in other areas such as social and infrastructure,
Russia has made the world more dangerous and national security of the US and its allies
trumps most spending except perhaps insterest on the national debt and paying the
holders of Treasuries. RTX dropped more than 10% from its tight consolidation range,
I see this dip as an excellent buying opportunity into a leader in the defense sector.
A couple scenarios for RTX swings.🔉Sound on!🔉
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
RTX Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RTX Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the $80usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $1.37.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
RTX has 2 Short-Levels I would jump inThe orange Fork projects the pull-back potential, which is the Center-Line.
There are 3 short levels I see:
1. The primary is way up in the primary Sellers Zone.
Although this would be the most profitable one, it has a
caveat: Price would by then have broken the Trend Barrier (Dotted slanting Trendline).
2. The secondary Short lies the Secondary Short level, right where the GAP happend. Within this level is also a tiny bunching, where price was not able to overcome.
As for the Oscillators, the MACD and Mansfield are pointing to a Down-Trend. Only the RSI seems to be oversold and is indicating a potential pullback, which is in essence the reason to look for a short. It's supported by the Buyers Zone, where price was picked up by the Bulls.
Definitely a Chart that has it's place in my watch list.
Happy day Tr8dingN3rds §8-)
LMT a defense sector leader setup LONGOn the daily LMT, over the long term is shown to have descended into the support
of the ascending support trendline in what appears to be an ascending wedge.
Confluent with the support trendline is the mean VWAP and the mean band of
the Bollinger Bands. I see an opening for a long trade targeting the resistance
trendline and also the second standard deviation of the anchored VWAP ( red
thick line) Fundamentally, LMT just beat on both the top and bottom lines.
It is in a obvious growth industry with a bakclog of production in the setting
of the Russian Ukraine war and the need for US and NATO to replenish their
stockpiles. This long trade is best for investors content with slow moving blue
chip Dow Jones type stocks or alternatively agile options traders able to leverage
low magnitude up trends. I see about 10% upside and will buy some call options
to exploit this setup.
Is the DFEN dip buyable?I think that the dip is very buyable. Fundamentally, Russia has made the world more
dangerous. Shipments of weapons to Ukraine have depleted US and European stockpiles.
NATO is in a growth mode as proposed by former president Trump some years ago.
While many would like less defense spending and shift it into social spending or
infrastructure or clean technology government funding. the pragmatics are that
national security is generally higher on the priority list. DFEN just dropped below
the high volume area of the volume profile on the 15 minute chart in a VWAP breakdown.
The relative strength lines did a bottom bounce on the indicator. I will exploit this
as a long buying opportunity looking to a modest 5% upside target at minimal risk.
Boeing BA - A Dark HarbourI have never looked at Boeing until today, when I saw some guy posting ideas about it while I was having lunch and I didn't even recognize the ticker, and so I took a look at it, and was surprised to see what I found.
In considering this company, I completely understand that they've had problems with their planes, and big ones. But I have also said that I do not put much weight in the ostensible correlation between fundamentals of a company and price.
So long as the equity is still being maintained by Wall Street's behemoths, price action will remain orderly made and constitute a fractal that is rationally written and contains the combined intelligence of all market participants.
Boeing is really notable on the monthly charts:
Frankly, its bullish price action looked even better than what stuff like AAPL and TSLA printed during this unsustainable Federal Reserve money printer-backed tractor pull to SPX 4,800, and it occurred before COVID, and was accompanied by heavy distribution.
It only finally corrected when COVID hit, and yet it only swept out the '16 low, which led to the original impulse to $450.
Even more taste bud-piquing is the weekly chart:
BA has not had a shred of bullish impulse since March of 2021. More or less, while the entire market went ape-up in a straight line, Boeing has just grinded downwards.
This is highly indicative of significant smart money accumulation.
When the big 2022 correction started, Boeing lost 30% like everyone else, but formed a 24-month double bottom and protected its pre-COVID low with a generous wick and a healthy bounce.
More importantly, there is a gap that appears both on the daily and weekly candles at $330, which is exceptionally notable considering this mid-term range high, printed 18 months ago, wasn't far away at $~279.
I believe that a significant shakeout in the market will come shortly.
VIX - 9x8 = 72
But based on the price action of Boeing, I can't help but feel this is the definition of oversold and that an expectation from short sellers that this is going to turn around and rip south to new lows is going to be met with only one outcome: liquidation.
For other defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, although they have totally different (and much more bullish) price action compared BA, they share the characteristic of severely lagging the overall market in terms of bull impulse.
And these are arguably the most critical companies underpinning the United States and the globalist empire.
This leads me to believe that what lies ahead is a catalyst that will see defense and aerospace stocks go on a _significant_ bull run, providing an unlikely harbour amid an overall market that sees both equities and commodities revisiting (and breaking) pre-COVID market structure.
SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws
For Boeing, it's still too expensive to buy, trading above the equilibrium point of this June-forward dealing range.
However, if this thesis that Boeing will go on a tear and not turn around and die is correct, I would want to see it fall to only a certain point and not flirt with the double bottom or the even the June gap lows.
The best buy signal, hands down, will be a dump into the $135 range, accompanied by market makers reverently supporting this area.
If so, you should definitely expect this whole 18 month range below $280 gets cleaned up, and likely in a highly aggressive fashion.
The question is, what serves as a catalyst for the defense and aerospace industry to moon?
There are no pleasant answers.
GD Swing Short SetupBMV:GD
GD has bounced down from resistance of sell order blocks.
Relative Strengh downturn confirms.
This is setup as a swing short with a Reward to Risk of 4.
GD will recover from this reversal as this defense contractor
is in a boom sector, giving the geopolitical /macro overlay.
Also check RTX and LMT.
Raytheon Technologies – Whopping 60% Shorting Opportunity?If you like this idea, please don’t forget to Boost it.
Fundamental Indicators:
Sector – Industrials
US Business Cycle Stage – late cycle, when this sector is neutral
Revenue – consistent growth for the past 5 years, although just 6% average annual rate, the performance in 2022 TTM is considerably slowing down
Profits – although slight increase in 2022TTM, it has still not recovered to pre-pandemic levels
Net margin – 7% which is still below pre-pandemic levels
P/E – the highest historic level with ratio of 31 compared to S&P500 with 21, Industrials sector with 21 and historic average level of 11
Liabilities - debt ratio is at 0.55 which is within the norm, Net Debt/ EBITDA is 2.48 – no problems with debt
Conclusion – although the company is recovering from pandemic but still hasn’t caught up to the previous levels, and given current overpriced valuation, it is very likely to go into correction to get back to the fair value
Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
Main scenario of this idea suggests that we are still observing development of the global growth cycle which is currently at the stage of starting corrective wave 4 (see higher timeframe graph)
Since the longest correction in the shape of a Running Triangle that has lasted between 1987 and 1994 completed, this company has enjoyed explosive growth with circa 2100%. However, the whole movement is choppy with a lot of crossings hence likely to be an Ending Diagonal (see guidelines for Ending Diagonals below)
The historic high which was formed in March 2022 was the point of completion of wave 3 in the Ending Diagonal and now we are observing formation of the first leg of wave 4, presumably as a double zigzag. Wave W has completed, wave X is likely to finalise at the price level $97.32
Once completed, there will be another bull run in wave Y with the target range $67-$78 – which may present up to 30% shorting opportunity. However, longer term target is potentially $40 which is whopping 60%
This is a higher timeframe to reflect the full history of Raytheon Technologies Corporation and to provide full wave count:
This is the link to the guidelines for Ending Diagonals
What do you think about Raytheon Technologies Corporation and its short term prospects?
Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves. And BOOST this idea if you like it.
Thanks






















