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Gold Eyes 4,010 Support Ahead of CPI – Big Move Loading?Hey Traders, In tomorrow’s trading session, we’re monitoring XAUUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 4,010 zone. Gold remains in a broader uptrend and is currently in a correction phase, approaching a key support and resistance confluence around 4,010 that aligns with the ascending trendline. Market Focus: All eyes are on tomorrow’s U.S. CPI release, with expectations for headline inflation at 3.0% and core at 3.1%. A softer-than-expected print could weigh on the U.S. Dollar, potentially igniting fresh momentum for GOLD to resume its bullish trend. Next Move: Watching price action around 4,010 closely — if CPI data confirms disinflation, we could see a strong rebound toward recent highs as safe-haven demand strengthens. 💬 What’s your take on the CPI? Are you positioning long or waiting for confirmation? Drop your thoughts below! Trade safe, Joe
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
12
Palladium - The Calm Before the Next Surge!🏹Palladium has been on a strong bullish run , riding within a clean rising channel. After a sharp impulse, price is now cooling off — and this pullback might just be the calm before the next surge. ⚔️The metal is approaching a major intersection zone where the rising trendline meets a strong demand and structure area, a confluence that has previously sparked powerful rallies. As long as this intersection holds, I’ll be watching for bullish confirmations to join the trend. A healthy correction into this zone could set the stage for the next impulsive wave, with potential upside targets around $1,550 and even $1,700 if momentum kicks in. In short, Palladium remains overall bullish, and this upcoming retest could be the perfect reload zone before the next big move north. 📊All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
TVC:PALLADIUMLong
by TheSignalyst
4
Gold Testing 4,210 Support as Bulls Eye Another Leg HigherHey Traders, in today’s session we’re keeping a close watch on XAUUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 4,210 zone. Gold continues to trade within a broader uptrend, and the current pullback appears to be a healthy correction toward a key support and resistance confluence at 4,210. Market structure: Momentum remains bullish, with price forming higher highs and higher lows. The ongoing correction could provide a trend-continuation entry if buyers step in near support. Key level: 4,210 — a decisive zone where previous reactions have sparked renewed buying interest. Outlook: A sustained bid from this area could pave the way for another push toward 4,300 and beyond, keeping Gold aligned with its dominant bullish trajectory. Trade safe, Joe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
9
USDJPY Rally Faces Pressure Near 151.250 on Safe-Haven FlowsHey Traders, in the coming week we’re monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around the 151.250 zone. The pair remains in a broader downtrend, currently in a corrective phase as it approaches this key resistance level. Meanwhile, DXY is also correcting within its own downtrend, approaching resistance near 98.600, which reinforces the bearish bias on USD pairs. With US–China tensions escalating, we’re seeing renewed safe-haven demand for JPY, potentially setting the stage for another leg lower in USDJPY. Trade safe, Joe
Short
by JoeChampion
21
Gold’s Golden Retest?Gold continues to trade within a rising blue channel, maintaining its overall bullish structure. Currently, price is retesting the intersection between the lower blue trendline and the red structure zone, which has acted as strong support multiple times. As long as this confluence area holds, I’ll be looking for trend-following longs targeting the upper boundary of the channel. A break and close below this zone would temporarily pause the bullish momentum and open room for a deeper correction. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
Gold Near 4,280 as US–China Tensions Fuel Flight to Safety!Hey Traders, In today’s session, we’re monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around the 4,280 zone. Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with price currently correcting toward a key structural support area where buyers may look to re-enter. From a fundamental standpoint, rising US–China geopolitical tensions have pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. Market sentiment is tilting defensive, and Gold — already hovering near all-time highs — continues to reflect that global risk aversion. A sustained bid above 4,280 could reinforce bullish momentum and potentially open the path toward new highs if uncertainty persists. Key level: 4,280 (support / trend confluence) Bias: Bullish while above this level Trade safe, Joe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
8
USDCHF 10-year support points to major breakdown to 0.70! USDCHF BREAKDOWN ALERT: Decade-long support shattered – here's why this could be the start of a major move to 0.70 and below! The Dollar-Swiss Franc pair is setting up for a potentially significant breakdown after breaking decade-long support levels since May. Both fundamental and technical factors are aligning for Swiss franc strength, creating what could be a rare high-probability trading opportunity. Key Drivers: Fed Dovish Pivot: Powell's Tuesday signal acknowledged downside risks to job markets, with 97% probability of October rate cuts and two more by December fully priced in Swiss Franc Strength: CHF has strengthened nearly 9% over the past 12 months, now testing the 0.78 level, while Trump's tariff escalation forces Switzerland to slash GDP forecasts Technical Breakdown: Multiple analytical methods (range breakouts, Fibonacci projections, and triangle pattern analysis) all point to targets around 0.7417-0.6840, representing potential moves to levels not seen since 2011 SNB Constraints: The Swiss National Bank cannot intervene in forex markets while trade talks are ongoing, meaning the Franc is likely to stay strong by default, with stable inflation data Don't miss this detailed technical and fundamental breakdown! Like and subscribe for more high-probability forex setups, and drop a comment below with your USD/CHF targets - are you seeing the same bearish signals? This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
US–China Tensions Put Pressure on AUDJPY Near 98.600!!Hey Traders, In today’s session, we’re closely watching AUDJPY as price approaches the 98.600 zone, aligning with a key resistance level within the broader downtrend. After a short-term corrective move higher, the pair now faces an area that has historically acted as a turning point for sellers. From a fundamental perspective, global sentiment appears to be tilting toward risk aversion once again. Ongoing US–China tensions have reignited geopolitical uncertainty, with markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of further escalation. In such an environment, high-beta currencies like the AUD tend to underperform, while safe-haven flows favor the JPY. If risk sentiment deteriorates further, AUDJPY could see renewed downside momentum from this resistance region. Key zone: 98.600 — confluence of structure resistance and trend alignment. Bias: Bearish while below this level. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
17
Silver just hit a record high but a double‑top signals pullback!After a strong rally to new records spurred by safe-haven demand and new entrants, silver is now testing critical support levels near $47‑$48 amid the recent Gaza ceasefire news, forming a classic double‑top pattern that may turn into a long-term Cup & Handle that could place price action in a handle pattern for the years to come. 🔑 Key Drivers (Silver‑focused) Technical breakout : Price breached $51, approaching the 161.8 % Fibonacci level at $47.50. Double‑top formation : A clean double‑top suggests a near‑term correction could be on the way. Support zone : The $47‑$48 area acts as the next major support; a break below could open the door to $45‑$46 levels. Fibonacci retracement : The 61.8% retracement sits around $49.30, providing a potential bounce point before any deeper pullback. Want the latest silver analyses, alerts on breakouts, and detailed chart breakdowns? Subscribe, like, and hit the notification bell – then share in the comments your silver trade setup or questions! This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAGUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
14
USDJPY breakout: Can the rally extend toward 155?The dollar-yen pair smashed through 150 with one of the strongest breakouts recently, confirming a new technical phase as it trades above the 61.8% Fib retracement. Here’s what’s fuelling the move and what traders should watch next: Dollar strength returned as safe haven flows dominate, even with a US government shutdown, while Japan’s new prime minister’s dovish signals are sending the yen into freefall. Key drivers Safe haven flows : Investors seek shelter in the dollar as global uncertainty rises; DXY index hit a 6-week high. Yield differentials : The Fed/BOJ spread powers further carry trade buying as Japanese rates remain ultra-low. Japanese political shift : PM Takaichi’s win spurs fiscal stimulus and pushes back market hopes for BOJ tightening, deepening yen weakness. Technical breakout : Clean break above multi-year resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement; watch for support validation and continuation toward the next 78.6% Fib at 154.80. What to watch Holding above 150 and 61.8% Fib support sets the stage for a bullish continuation. Profit taking is possible near 153.25–154.80, as RSI shows signs of overbought. Tonight’s FOMC minutes, Thursday’s BoJ/Ueda speech, and political headlines could trigger sharp moves. Cross-pair momentum : EURJPY at record highs, GBPJPY surging, confirming broad-based yen weakness. The bulls are in control as long as USDJPY stays above 151.15–150.50. Pullbacks to support offer opportunities to buy dips, with 154.80 as the next bullish target. Keep stop losses disciplined, and don’t ignore the chance for sharp reversals if intervention or a dramatic shift in sentiment emerges. For more actionable FX insight, follow ThinkMarkets. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
GOLD => $4000 The MagnetGold has been pushing higher within its bullish log-chart structure, moving inside two rising channels (red short-term and blue long-term). The interesting part? The $4000 level is acting like a magnet, and it happens to intersect with the upper bound of both channels. This rare confluence makes $4000 a key level to watch. As long as the bullish momentum holds, Gold remains on track toward this magnet level. But once there, the reaction will be critical, a clean breakout could open the door for fresh highs, while a rejection may trigger a correction before continuation. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
7
Will US government shutdown add further fuel to silver’s rally? Concerns over a weakening US labor market, expectations for further Fed rate cuts, and heightened government shutdown risks have fueled sustained demand for silver as a safe haven. September ADP private payrolls fell by 32,000, the steepest drop since March 2023, while August figures were sharply revised from a 54,000 gain to a 3,000 loss, underscoring labor market softness. Meanwhile, the shutdown has officially begun after bipartisan talks failed to reach an agreement, with the key uncertainty now being its duration. A shutdown lasting more than a month could have widespread economic repercussions. XAGUSD sustains its uptrend above EMA21. The diverging EMAs indicate to a potential expansion of bullish momentum. If XAGUSD closes above EMA21, the price may advance toward the psychological resistance at 48.00. Conversely, if XAGUSD breaks below EMA21, the price could retreat toward the support at 46.00.
OANDA:XAGUSD
by inkicho_exness
Gold: Undervalued Safe-Haven Amid Macro Shifts?Gold: Undervalued Safe-Haven Amid Macro Shifts? $4,000 Target in Sight? 🚀 Gold at $3,817 (+1.28%), undervalued on central bank demand and inflation hedges amid trade barrier concerns—analysts forecast $4,000-$4,289 for 2025, average $4,000 implying 5% upside, asking if Fed cuts boost inflows. 📈 **Fundamental Analysis** Demand up with central bank buys and 1,271.7t investment in 2019; undervalued vs. historical inflation-adjusted highs, strong fundamentals from geopolitical risks, limited supply adding scarcity premium. - **Positive:** Inflation protector; ETF inflows rising. - **Negative:** No yield; opportunity cost with rates. **SWOT Analysis** **Strengths:** Dual monetary/industrial role; deficit outlook. **Weaknesses:** Price volatility; mining costs. **Opportunities:** Rate cut cycles; emerging demand. **Threats:** Strong dollar; crypto alternatives. **Technical Analysis** Chart in strong uptrend nearing records. Price: $3,817, VWAP $3,800. Key indicators: - RSI: 68 (bullish, approaching overbought). - MACD: 20 (positive crossover). - Moving Averages: Above 50-day $3,500, 200-day $3,200 (strong). Support/Resistance: $3,600/$3,900. Patterns/Momentum: Cup-and-handle targeting $4,200. 📈 Bullish. **Scenarios and Risk Management** - **Bullish:** Inflation data lifts to $4,000; DCA on pulls to $3,700. - **Bearish:** Rate hike fears drop to $3,500. - **Neutral:** Trades $3,800 on PMI data. Risk Tips: Stops at $3,600, max 5% exposure, diversify with bonds, DCA for fluctuations. ⚠️ **Conclusion/Outlook** Bullish pending Fed signals. Watch inflation reports. Fits macro theme with hedge upside. Take? Comment!
TVC:GOLD
by DCAChampion
Gold breaks records and tops out: Where next?Gold achieved a historic breakthrough to $3,759 per ounce, potentially driven by an unusual "barbell strategy" where investors simultaneously bought risk assets while hedging against systemic risks. On the one hand, continued expectations for two additional rate cuts by year-end supported non-yielding assets. On the other hand, political uncertainty increases as Trump prepares to meet with lawmakers on funding proposals. The probability of a Gov shutdown approaches 70% by October 1st, which would force the FOMC into a 'blind' meeting in October. Technicals The short-term setup shows a double top formation at $3,759, suggesting potential consolidation rather than immediate continuation. Resistance Levels : $3,800 is a critical resistance, both a Fibonacci extension cluster and a psychological level Support Levels : Immediate support at $3,740 (breakout confirmation level) Secondary support at $3,700-$3,730 (previous consolidation zone) Deeper pullback potential to $3,673 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) Wave Structure : Elliott waves suggest completion of a potential Wave 3, with consolidation expected before a possible fifth wave extension toward $3,785-$3,800 Forward Outlook The setup favours consolidation over the remainder of the week, with key events including Fed Chair Powell's speech and Friday's PCE inflation data serving as potential catalysts for the next directional move. The momentum divergences suggest limited downside risk from current levels, making any pullback toward $3,700-$3,740 a potential buying opportunity for the anticipated final leg higher toward the $3,800 resistance zone. Risk management remains crucial given the proximity to potential reversal levels and the unusual nature of gold's correlation with equity strength. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by ThinkMarkets
Gold hits record 3,759 | Safe-haven flows surge back🟡 XAU/USD – 23/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News Today Gold surged nearly +2% , hitting a record $3,759/oz . Geopolitical tensions : Israel launched missiles into Lebanon, killing 5 (including 4 US citizens) → safe-haven demand rushed back into Gold. USD weakened , capital flowed out of stocks & bonds → strong support for precious metals. ETFs & speculators : heavy buying amplified the rally. Silver : jumped to its highest level in 14 years, reinforcing strength in the precious metals sector. ⏩ Captain’s Summary : Gold is fueled by geopolitics, macro factors, and safe-haven demand. But after a hot rally, the big question: continue breaking highs or face sharp swings if the FED shifts tone? 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis (H45) Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone) 3,771 – 3,787 (Fibo 0.5–0.618 confluence, ATH test zone) Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone) Near support: 3,740 (previous high turned support) OB Dock: 3,717 – 3,723 Breakout Harbor: 3,689 – 3,691 Market Structure Gold broke out to Higher High around 3,755 – 3,759. Main trend remains bullish, but prone to volatility / pullback after a hot rally. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan ✅ Buy (trend-follow priority) Buy Zone 1 (OB) Entry: 3,717 – 3,723 SL: 3,707 TP: 3,725 – 3,730 – 3,735 – 3,740 – 3,750 Buy Zone 2 (Breakout Retest) Entry: 3,689 – 3,691 SL: 3,678 TP: 3,699 – 3,710 – 3,7xx ⚡ Sell (short-term scalp if overbought) Sell Zone (ATH test) Entry: 3,783 – 3,785 SL: 3,795 TP: 3,759 – 3,740 – 3,717 ⚓ Captain’s Note “The geopolitical storm pushed the Golden sails past 3,759. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,717 – 3,689) is the safe dock for sailors to board the northbound trend. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,771 – 3,787) may raise heavy waves, suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. The main voyage remains bullish, but after a hot rally, sailors must keep a firm hand on the helm to avoid being thrown off by choppy swings.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
Gold Prep for $5,000 -- Q1 2026Based on Gold's macro Elliott Wave structure, the pending new all-time high near $5,000 is likely to unleash the most magnificently tremendous episode of bear power ever witnessed in Gold's history. The elders, boomers, OGs, etc. are likely preparing to migrate to crypto. I believe this is the quiet part that institutions and media is not saying out loud. Then again, this idea of a catalyst is totally speculation. The chart is more of a science.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DigitalSurfTrading
Gold hits record highs ahead of FOMC! Tech SetupGold reached fresh all-time highs near $3690 ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Its rally reflects a perfect storm of Fed dovishness and geopolitical tensions, but technical divergences suggest positioning carefully ahead of Powell's decision. The 100% Fib extension and double divergence setup makes any hawkish surprise particularly dangerous for leveraged longs. CATALYSTS DRIVING THE RALLY: Fed rate cut fully priced in (25bps expected, some 50bps speculation) US-China tensions escalate (Nvidia antitrust accusations) Stephen Miron confirmed to Fed Board of Governors (dovish member) Dollar weakness supporting precious metals Surprising correlation: Nasdaq & S&P 500 also hit records alongside gold TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance : $3,700 - Key psychological level $3,750 - Next major target $3,800 - Extended upside if dovish Support : $3,660 - First support for entries $3,610 - Major support level Previous swing lows - Stop loss reference WARNINGS: Double divergence on 4H & 1H timeframes 100% Fibonacci extension reached RSI overbought conditions Momentum diverging from price action FOMC SCENARIOS: Bullish Case : Dovish 25bps + accommodative guidance → Target $3,750-$3,800 Risk Case : Hawkish surprise or even neutral tone → Profit-taking toward $3,600-$3,500 KEY RISKS: Powell emphasising inflation persistence Resistance to aggressive cutting cycle Hawkish dot plot projections Any break below $3,660 signals deeper correction potential This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
Gold Rally at Its Peak – Correction on the Horizon?Gold Rally at Its Peak – Correction on the Horizon? Gold (XAUUSD) Technical–Fundamental Market Report Over the past weeks, gold has shown a significant transition in market structure. After a prolonged distribution and corrective phase through late July into mid-August, price action shifted decisively into a strong bullish cycle. The early downtrend was marked by repeated breaks of structure to the downside, reflecting selling pressure and controlled liquidity grabs. From late August onward, gold transitioned into accumulation, where price consolidated, absorbed liquidity, and built momentum. This was followed by a clear breakout phase, marked by multiple bullish break-of-structure signals. The market demonstrated aggressive upward expansion, driven by momentum and strong order flow, suggesting institutional positioning. Fundamentally, this aligns with the current macro backdrop: gold often gains strength when investors anticipate monetary policy easing, inflationary risks, or geopolitical tensions. The consistent bullish run reflects a flight-to-safety narrative, supported by capital inflows. Currently, price action shows extended bullish movement nearing exhaustion, with signs of potential short-term corrective pressure. The dotted projection suggests a retracement phase could be expected after testing higher liquidity zones, a natural reaction to overextended momentum.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by XAU_EMPIRE
Gold Plan - Market awaits JOLTS, gold holds safe-haven role⚓️ Captain Vincent US–Venezuela tensions push gold into safe-haven spotlight 1. News Waves 🌍 U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed: American forces attacked a drug vessel originating from Venezuela, as Washington steps up pressure on Maduro’s government. Earlier, Trump placed a $50 million bounty to force Venezuela’s president out of power, while deploying military forces closer to the Caribbean. 👉 These moves have fueled fears of regional conflict, and gold was immediately chosen by big money as a safe-haven. This morning’s rally clearly reflected defensive flows rushing back into GOLD. 📌 Note – 21:00 (03/09): JOLTS Job Openings report – a key gauge of U.S. labor health. If weaker than expected → USD under pressure, gold has room to accelerate. 2. Technical Outlook ⚙️ H1 Chart: gold continues forming bullish BOS , confirming the uptrend. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Buy Zone 3,478 – 3,480): overlapping major Order Block, strong support for pullbacks. Storm Breaker 🌊 (Sell Zone 3,577 – 3,579): near 1.618 fib extension, potential resistance with profit-taking pressure. Captain’s Shield 🛡️ (Support): 3,528 – 3,507 Captain’s Wall 🧱 (Resistance): 3,562 – 3,585 3. Captain Vincent’s Map – Trade Scenarios 🪙 🔺 Golden Harbor 🏝️ (BUY Zone – Priority) Entry: 3,478 – 3,480 SL: 3,470 TP: 3,483 → 3,486 → 3,489 → 349x → 35xx 🔻 Storm Breaker 🌊 (SELL Reaction at Resistance) Entry: 3,577 – 3,579 SL: 3,586 TP: 3,573 → 3,570 → 3,567 → 3,560 → 35xx 4. Captain’s Note ⚓ “The gold sea is stirred by U.S.–Venezuela political winds 🌊. The ship has anchored at Golden Harbor 🏝️ and is now steering toward Storm Breaker 🌊 3577 . But remember: before big waves, wise sailors always time their departure at the right harbor.”
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CaptainVincent
1
Gold’s $200 Surge Defies the DollarOver the past week, gold prices exploded by more than $200 per ounce, shattering the $3,500/oz threshold to new all-time highs . Silver joined the surge, breaching $40/oz for the first time since 2011 . This explosive precious metals rally is striking not only for its magnitude, but because it occurred in tandem with a strengthening U.S. dollar – a sharp break from the usual inverse correlation between gold and the greenback. Typically, “gold’s appeal reflects an inverse relationship with the dollar’s value”, as one analyst noted , and gold soars when the dollar slumps. Yet this time, the U.S. Dollar Index held firm (even rising against some currencies), so gold’s ascent “alongside the value of the US dollar” appears anomalous . This disconnect has confounded the simplistic media narrative that tried to pin gold’s move on U.S. political drama – namely turmoil surrounding Donald Trump pressuring the Federal Reserve. Indeed, mainstream headlines have leaned on that explanation: “Gold surges after Trump’s Fed pressure,” blared the Financial Times, after President Trump’s attempted (and unprecedented) firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook raised alarms about Fed independence . Bloomberg News similarly attributed gold’s spike to “rate-cut bets” spurred by Trump’s actions . There is some truth here – investors clearly sought safety amid U.S. political uncertainty, with the largest gold ETF (SPDR Gold Shares, ticker GLD) hauling in over $2.3 billion of inflows last week to top all ETFs, “as gold prices flirted with record highs near $3,500” following Trump’s attempt to oust a Fed official . Concerns over Fed independence and Washington turmoil did fuel safe-haven demand . But a closer investigation of market data and cross-asset flows reveals a more complex story than “Trump made gold jump.” In particular, the simultaneous rise of gold and the dollar hints at other forces at play – potentially global capital rotations and eurozone undercurrents – that the simplistic narrative overlooks. Order Flow: U.S. Buying vs. Asian Selling One immediate clue lies in where the strongest gold buying originated. Market internals and order flow patterns suggest that North American investors led this rally, while Asian and European participants were net sellers or laggards. Gold’s intraday price action repeatedly showed dips during Asia and London trading hours, followed by robust gains during U.S. market hours – indicating steady accumulation out of New York overcoming profit-taking elsewhere. This aligns with recent flow trends: “Gold ETF buying has flipped from Asia to Western investment markets”, notes BullionVault, as China and India saw outflows while U.S. and European gold funds began expanding together . In the past fortnight, Asian-listed gold ETFs shrank by over 5 tonnes – the heaviest 2-week outflow since the Ukraine invasion – even as Western funds saw their strongest stretch of inflows in over two years . Physical gold selling in Asia corroborated this trend. As prices hit fresh highs above $3,000 and $3,500, Asian jewelry holders rushed to “cash in”. In India’s bazaars and Middle Eastern souks, retailers report a surge of people selling old jewelry and coins to lock in gains . “Customers raced to cash in their old gold,” Reuters noted, with scrap sales booming across India and the Middle East . This flood of recycled gold effectively made Asia a net supplier to the market during the rally, potentially “tempering gold’s rally” in those regions if it continues . In contrast, U.S. investors were voracious buyers: not only did American ETFs see big inflows, but U.S. futures markets showed relentless bids during New York trading sessions, driving price strength into each day’s close. In sum, Western demand carried gold higher even as Eastern markets took profits. This East-to-West flow reversal suggests the price surge was not simply a global panic “bid” for gold, but rather a targeted rotation of capital – with U.S. and European buyers eagerly absorbing the supply coming out of Asia. Such a dynamic is important because it hints that new money (likely institutional and speculative) in the West was a key driver, rather than traditional physical demand from Asia (which actually softened amid the high prices). Gold in USD vs. Gold in EUR: A Currency Disconnect Another intriguing aspect of this rally is how differently it played out in U.S. dollars versus other currencies – particularly the euro. Gold’s price in USD hit record highs, but gold priced in euros (XAU/EUR) did not. In fact, at gold’s peak this week the euro-priced ounce “held beneath spring highs” even as the USD-priced ounce broke out . Gold in British pounds and Japanese yen did notch new records alongside USD gold , but the euro-denominated price lagged. This discrepancy between XAU/USD and XAU/EUR is telling. Had the rally been driven purely by U.S.-centric fears (Trump/Fed turmoil) causing a weak dollar, we would expect the opposite – gold might jump in USD but soar even more in euros as the dollar falls. Instead, the dollar strengthened against the euro, and gold’s rise in USD terms outpaced its rise in EUR terms. One interpretation is that some of the buying came from investors shifting capital out of euro assets and into dollar-based gold, effectively boosting both gold and the dollar simultaneously. In other words, capital flight from euro-based holdings could be an underlying factor. If European investors (or global investors with euro exposure) moved funds into U.S. dollars or dollar-priced gold, that would drive the dollar higher at the same time as gold – precisely what we saw. It’s notable that earlier in the year, gold in euros had spiked to record levels (during a bout of euro weakness and regional banking worries), whereas U.S. gold lagged at that time. Now the roles reversed: “the dollar price topped its previous high, but the euro price of gold stayed below its spring peak” . This reversal suggests the latest rally was U.S.-led, not euro-led. Rather than a panic specifically within Europe, this feels like a more subtle rotation away from the euro toward “safe” currencies and assets. The euro’s exchange rate was relatively firm during this gold spike (indeed, gold’s jump was despite a firm dollar, not because of a weak one), implying the move wasn’t about a collapsing euro – it was about proactive reallocation. In essence, global investors may be quietly diversifying out of euros into gold (and dollars) as insurance against potential eurozone troubles down the line. Speculators Pile In: CFTC Data Shows Growing Longs Fueling gold’s ascent has been a wave of speculative positioning in the futures market. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders (COT) report reveals that hedge funds and money managers have been steadily adding to bullish gold bets. In fact, bullish bets are at their highest levels in years. As one market analysis noted, “the net long position of Managed Money traders rising… back to 4-year high… reaching 155% of long-term average” . This means speculators hold vastly more long contracts than usual, a clear sign of momentum-chasing and confidence in further upside. Recent data confirms the build-up: speculators’ net-long gold positions jumped to around 237,000 contracts in mid-August (versus ~178,000 in early 2024) and remain elevated . For context, that mid-August figure was the largest net long in at least four years. Even trend-following funds that had been absent are now “firing on all cylinders,” adding to length as gold broke out. Importantly, while these speculative inflows are large, some analysts point out they are “relatively modest… given the move in gold prices – suggesting there is further upside to come” if more investors pile in . In other words, positioning is bullish but not yet at extreme record levels in proportion to gold’s price move, leaving room for additional buyers. This surge in paper gold interest highlights that the rally has a strong “hot money” component. It’s not just passive safe-haven holding; fast-moving traders are actively driving the market higher. The rising COT longs also underscore why gold’s jump defied the dollar: in a typical risk-off scenario, one might see short covering or flight from other assets incidentally lift gold, but here we have an affirmative speculative buildup anticipating higher gold ahead. Massive ETF Inflows: GLD and Silver ETFs See Big Demand Alongside futures activity, investment flows into gold and silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been massive, indicating broad-based demand from institutions and retail investors alike. The flagship gold ETF, GLD, saw particularly eye-popping inflows. In the week of the surge, GLD attracted roughly $2.3 billion of new money, making it “the No.1 asset gatherer among U.S.-listed ETFs” . To put that in perspective, GLD outdrew even the largest stock index funds for the week – a remarkable rotation of capital into precious metals. These inflows pushed GLD’s total assets to new heights, as investors sought the convenience of paper gold exposure during the rally. Other precious metals funds saw similar interest: iShares’ silver trust (SLV) reportedly logged sizable inflows as silver prices jumped in unison with gold. Silver’s rally – over 10% in a week to above $40/oz – was the strongest in years, and analysts noted that “momentum traders obviously also became involved” once silver broke technical levels . The U.S. government’s proposal last week to classify silver as a critical mineral (which could spur domestic stockpiling) “helped to fuel the surge through $40” , giving fundamental justification to silver’s move and further enticing ETF investors. Taken together, the ETF data paints a picture of widespread investment allocation into precious metals. Gold-backed ETFs globally had already been seeing positive inflows in recent months – the World Gold Council reported that the first half of 2025 saw the largest H1 gold ETF inflows since 2020 – and this past week accelerated that trend. The demand was not confined to the U.S. either; European-listed gold funds also saw creations (with particularly strong buying in the UK, Switzerland, and Germany in recent months) . But the U.S. flows were dominant. North American funds accounted for the bulk of new gold ETF buying this quarter , reflecting that U.S. investors are driving this shift to hard assets. Such massive ETF inflows, alongside record futures longs, indicate a broad conviction trade into gold and silver. Whether as an inflation hedge, a geopolitical hedge, or a play on future Fed easing, capital is pouring into these assets via easily accessible vehicles. GLD’s $2+ billion weekly haul underscores that this was not a niche move – it was front and center in capital markets. Not a Typical “Risk-Off” – Stocks, Crypto and Bonds Stayed Resilient Crucially, unlike many past gold spikes, this one did not coincide with a major selloff in other asset classes. In classic market panics, gold’s rise is often mirrored by tumbling equities, collapsing bond yields (as investors buy Treasuries), or even a rush out of speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. That didn’t really happen here – indicating this gold rally was driven by rotation of capital from cash or low-yield reserves, rather than forced liquidations elsewhere. Consider the stock market: global equities barely blinked. The MSCI World Stock Index had just hit an all-time high in late August; it fell only about 1.5% from that peak during gold’s run-up . A 1.5% dip is trivial – essentially normal daily volatility – and U.S. indices similarly remained near record levels. There was no sense of an equity crash or widespread fear in stocks; in fact, some risk assets like small-cap stocks rose on hopes of Fed rate cuts. Crypto markets were also relatively stable. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies held in their recent trading ranges with no signs of a flight-to-safety out of crypto. Unlike early 2020 (when Bitcoin plunged during a dash for cash), this time crypto was “largely unfazed”. If anything, crypto investors likely interpreted Fed dovishness as positive, which could have buoyed coins – but there was no mass exodus from crypto into gold. Bonds told a more nuanced story. U.S. Treasuries did not rally alongside gold – in fact, long-term bond prices fell last week, sending yields higher . Typically, if there were a major fear-driven episode, one would expect Treasury yields to plunge (as bond prices rise on safe-haven buying). Instead, the 10-year and 30-year yields ticked up. Notably, gold and bonds moved in opposite directions: “the split between government debt and gold prices has been underway, with gold rising… while the value of longer-term Treasury bonds has halved over five years” . Part of last week’s bond weakness was due to fresh concerns about fiscal deficits and inflation – which ironically can boost gold. A fund manager at Newton noted that the bond market isn’t yet signaling long-term inflation, but “there is falling confidence that can continue indefinitely”, characterizing the situation as a “fiscal crisis, rather than an economic crisis” driving gold’s rise . In short, gold’s jump wasn’t the result of a panic-driven bond rally – if anything, it coincided with a bond selloff. That implies the money fueling gold had to come from elsewhere (cash, forex reserves, or rotation out of other holdings) rather than from investors dumping stocks and bonds in fear. This cross-market resilience supports the idea that the gold/silver inflows were more of a strategic reallocation or hedge, not a reaction to an acute crash in other assets. As one analyst put it, “If you were a Martian observing this, gold and long-term bonds sending opposite signals is telling you there are concerns” below the surface – but it’s an unusual mix of signals. Investors didn’t run for the exits in equities or corporate bonds; instead, they appear to have drawn on sidelined cash or reallocated currency reserves to fund their gold purchases. This makes the episode more interesting: it hints at a rotation happening quietly, rather than an obvious crisis visible in all markets. Beyond the Trades: Is Capital Fleeing the Eurozone? These patterns – U.S.-led gold buying, euro underperformance, no broad risk asset selloff – point to a deeper macro narrative: a potential rotation of capital out of Europe’s financial system and into hard assets. Several data points and developments reinforce this interpretation: Reserve Currency Shifts: In a striking milestone, gold has now surpassed the euro as the world’s second-largest reserve asset (behind only the U.S. dollar). An ECB report highlighted that for the first time ever, gold represents a larger share of global foreign exchange reserves (20%) than the euro (16%) . In other words, central banks collectively hold more value in gold than in euro-denominated assets. This reflects concerted gold accumulation (over 1,000 tonnes per year since 2022, more than double the prior decade’s average ) at the expense of fiat holdings. It’s effectively a rotation out of traditional currencies – notably the euro – and into bullion. Such a shift “is remarkable”, as one market veteran noted, and coincides with 95% of central banks stating they plan to increase gold reserves in the next year – the highest on record . This trend screams a subtle mistrust in the long-term stability of the euro and other fiat assets, and a desire for the safety of hard currency. Eurozone Stress Signals: While the eurozone isn’t in open crisis, there are hints of structural stress that may be nudging smart money to preemptively seek safety. Political instability is one concern – for example, in France (the Eurozone’s second-largest economy), the government is teetering on the edge of collapse amid budget battles. Even ECB President Christine Lagarde cautioned that “any risk of a government falling in the euro zone a concern”, after French markets wobbled on snap election fears . Such political tremors feed into a narrative of euro-area fragility. Meanwhile, European banks and governments are grappling with high debt loads and thin margins. As interest rates rose this year, sovereign and corporate borrowing costs in Europe jumped, exposing vulnerabilities in heavily indebted nations. Observers have warned of “debt saturation” and precarious leverage in Europe’s financial system (some even pointing to bloated gold derivatives positions at European banks as a risk) . If investors – or other central banks – perceive even a small chance of a Eurozone financial accident (be it a debt crisis, a bank failure, or political rupture), they may quietly trim exposure now. Geopolitical Fragmentation and Inflation Hedging: Beyond Europe-specific issues, the broader macro backdrop is one of fracturing globalization and lingering inflation – conditions under which hard assets historically thrive. Under President Trump, the U.S. has upended elements of the post-WWII order, from trade alliances to security commitments . Trade wars and tariffs are forcing reallocations of supply chains and reserves. According to Reuters, Trump’s aggressive policies and sanctions have “upended Western security policy” and contributed to an environment where diversifying away from reliance on any single currency (especially the U.S. dollar) becomes prudent . Many developing countries have responded by boosting gold holdings as a hedge against geopolitical risks and potential sanctions (a lesson learned after Russia’s USD reserves were frozen in 2022) . This “de-dollarization” impulse, interestingly, often doesn’t benefit the euro – it benefits gold. Nations looking to reduce dollar dependence aren’t rushing into euros; they’re buying bullion (and to some extent, yuan) . This adds to global gold demand independent of day-to-day traders. At the same time, inflation remains a concern. Though off its peak, inflation in both the U.S. and Europe has been stubbornly above central bank targets, eroding trust in fiat purchasing power. Gold is the classic inflation hedge, and its appeal grows when investors worry that “there are concerns… the right tail of inflation risk” in the future . Notably, this gold rally occurred even as inflation expectations in bond markets remained relatively contained – suggesting some investors aren’t waiting for official signals; they are positioning early against the possibility of inflation or currency debasement down the road. The fact that inflation-linked bonds have not rallied (underperforming regular bonds) implies the bond market isn’t convinced inflation will run away . But gold’s surge could be seen as a belts-and-suspenders approach – insurance in case the bond market is wrong or central banks falter. Hard Asset Accumulation by Private Wealth: It’s not just central banks. Wealthy individuals and institutions are also shifting into tangible assets. Anecdotally, vault operators report high demand for physical gold storage. Real assets from commodities to real estate are getting increased allocation in portfolios as a hedge against both inflation and geopolitical strife. Silver’s inclusion on a U.S. critical minerals list last week (to secure supply chains) is emblematic of the new era of resource nationalism and strategic stockpiling . Gold and silver stand to benefit as strategic assets in a fragmenting world. The rally in both metals might be an early sign of investors preferring the certainty of hard assets in hand over promises on paper. All these factors converge to a clear insight: the gold and silver surge may be an early warning signal of capital seeking safety from systemic risks – particularly those emanating from currency systems and financial institutions. Unlike a sudden crisis that causes a panicked stampede, this feels more like a strategic redeployment of capital: a rotation before the full storm hits. Conclusion: A Canary in the Coal Mine? Gold’s extraordinary run this past week – soaring in concert with a firm dollar, absent a stock market crash – is not just a one-off curiosity. It appears to be a manifestation of deeper shifts in investor behavior and economic regime. The simple story of “Fed drama and political turmoil” belies the larger context: we are likely witnessing a rotation toward safety and solidity in anticipation of future turbulence. Whether that turbulence comes from Europe’s financial system, unsustainable government debts, or a fracturing global order, investors are hedging their bets. Precious metals are, in effect, serving as a barometer of macro stress and a receptacle for capital seeking refuge. As the European Central Bank’s own analysis noted, “gold generally offers a safe haven in times of stress… in extreme cases, gold prices tend to rise alongside the US dollar, while stock and bond prices decline” . That’s essentially what we’ve just observed – minus the sharp stock decline (at least so far). It puts policymakers on notice: something is bubbling beneath the surface. The last time we saw gold and the dollar rising together was during episodes like the onset of COVID-19 and the 9/11 attacks – clear crises. This time, the “crisis” is more subtle: a slow burn of fiscal strains, geopolitical realignments, and creeping distrust in institutions. For investors and professionals, the takeaways are clear. Diversification into hard assets is gaining momentum, and not without reason. Gold’s role as a portfolio stabilizer is reasserting itself; even at record nominal prices, it’s attracting huge inflows as a form of insurance. The traditional inverse relationship with the dollar is not sacrosanct – when confidence in both major fiat blocs (dollars and euros) is tested, gold can rise against all currencies at once. Silver’s concurrent jump and its industrial strategic importance highlight that this is a broader precious metals renaissance. Finally, it’s worth pondering the source of the $200 gold move. The evidence suggests it came not from panic, but from prudence – a reallocation from the quiet corners of cash and currency reserves into the safety of bullion. If that is the case, this gold surge could very well be the early tremor before larger quakes. Investors are effectively voting with their wallets, and their message is a cautious one: prepare for potential storms by holding real assets. Gold’s unusual rally, defying the dollar gravity, might be the canary in the coal mine for broader shifts to come – from an era of easy money and faith in central banks to one where tangible value and trust (or the lack thereof) drive decisions. As always, gold is both a barometer and a beneficiary of such paradigm shifts. Sources: Reuters – “Gold hits a record $3,532…main drivers fueled by U.S. President Trump’s upending of policy and Fed independence concerns.” ETF.com – “GLD led all ETFs last week, hauling in $2.3B as gold flirted with $3,500.” Reuters – “Gold tops $3,500… FT: ‘Gold surges after Trump’s Fed pressure’… Bloomberg: ‘Record high as rate-cut bets fuel demand.’” BullionVault – Order flow: “Asian gold ETFs shrank…while European and North American products have now expanded together in 7 of the past 8 weeks, the strongest stretch in 27 months.” Reuters – Physical market: “As gold prices jump… customers race to cash in old jewellery… If the rush to sell continues, could temper gold’s rally.” BullionVault – “Dollar gold hit new highs…but Euro and Yuan price of gold held beneath spring highs” BullionVault – COT data: “Net long position of Managed Money traders 4-year high…155% of long-term average.” Reuters – “Silver breached $40, highest since 2011… momentum traders involved after US proposal to label silver a critical mineral helped fuel the surge.” BullionVault – “Western stock markets dropped only 1.5% from last week’s record… long-term gov’t debt fell, driving yields higher, even as gold rose.” ECB Financial Stability Review (via Frank Holmes) – “Gold now represents 20% of global FX reserves vs 16% for the euro – first time gold’s share exceeds euro’s.” Reuters – Christine Lagarde: “France is solid but any risk of a government falling in the euro zone is a concern.” Reuters – “Annual central bank gold purchases have exceeded 1,000 tons since 2022, double the 2010s average” World Gold Council – “Gold ETFs saw 397t inflows Jan-June 2025, the largest first-half inflow since 2020.” ECB Research – “In extreme cases (9/11, pandemic onset), gold prices tend to rise alongside the US dollar while stock and bond prices decline markedly – confirming gold’s safe-haven role in times of stress.” - Gold trades near record highs on US rate cut bets; silver at 14-year high | Reuters - Gold Surpasses Euro as the Second-Largest Reserve Currency in the World - What does the record price of gold tell us about risk perceptions in financial markets? - Gold Tops $3500 Record Price | Gold News - Gold ETF Inflows Lead $34.3B Surge Into U.S.-Listed ETFs - Gold ETF Investing Flips from East to West | Gold News - After the gold rush: Asian, Mid-East sellers flood jewellery market | Reuters - Central bank demand propels safe-haven gold to record peak | Reuters - Explainer: Gold's record-breaking rally: who's keeping it going? | Reuters - Global flows stay hot | World Gold Council - France's far-right RN says it is getting ready for potential snap elections | Reuters - Eurozone Financial Crisis: Debt and Derivative Dangers
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by illusionfield
2
Gold Plan 26/08 – Captain VincentXAU/USD – Trump’s surprise move boosts gold sharply, what’s next? 1. News Waves 🌍 Trump suddenly dismissed FED Governor L. Cook, citing irresponsible recent financial decisions. 👉 This political–monetary shock pushed gold up more than 30 points from 3,350 – 3,352, as investors feared internal instability at the FED could weaken the USD. Safe-haven demand was triggered, but gold is unlikely to “rally in one straight line.” Markets usually require a pullback to fill liquidity before a clearer trend forms. 2. Technical Outlook ⚙️ Price bounced strongly from Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Buy Zone 3350 – 3342) – a key support area. Currently, gold is approaching Storm Breaker 🌊 (Resistance 3384 – 3400), where liquidity is concentrated → potential for profit-taking sell pressure. On H1, multiple FVGs appeared around 3363 and 3355 → gold may return to “fill the gap” before continuing its journey. 👉 Intraday bias: prioritize Sell at resistance, while watching for Buy Scalp opportunities at Quick Boarding 🚤 if price retraces to 3342 – 3340. 3. Captain Vincent’s Map – Key Levels 🪙 Storm Breaker 🌊 (Major Resistance): 3384 – 3400 Quick Boarding 🚤 (Buy Scalp): 3342 – 3340 | SL 3333 | TP: 3345 → 3347 → 3350 → 33xx Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Buy Zone): 3350 – 3342 FVG zones: around 3363 & 3355 (short-term liquidity magnets) 4. Trade Scenarios 📌 🔻 SELL at Storm Breaker 🌊 (priority setup) Entry: 3400 – 3402 SL: 3408 TP: 3395 → 3390 → 33xx 🔺 BUY Scalp – Quick Boarding 🚤 Entry: 3342 – 3340 SL: 3333 TP: 3345 → 3347 → 3350 → 33xx 5. Captain’s Note ⚓ “Trump’s news wave lifted gold like an unexpected headwind. But ahead, the Storm Breaker 🌊 could unleash turbulent waters. The wise will anchor at Golden Harbor 🏝️, the swift may choose Quick Boarding 🚤. And always remember: today’s gold sea is steered by the sharks’ oars.”
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
Is Gold Losing Its Luster or Preparing to Shine Again?XAUUSD has been respecting a broad ascending channel for months, with clear touches on both resistance and support levels. Recently, however, price slipped into a smaller bearish channel inside the larger structure. 📉 The short-term bias remains bearish as long as price trades within the red channel. 📊 Key support lies near the $3,280 zone — a critical level where bulls might attempt to step in. 💡 A breakout from the bearish channel could open the way for another retest of the upper resistance zone, while failure to hold support may trigger deeper corrections. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
4
USDJPY Sell Setup – Watching 147.600 Key Zone Next WeekHey Traders, In the coming week, I’m monitoring USDJPY for a potential sell opportunity near 147.600. Trend: Still in a clear downtrend. Current move: Price is correcting upward into resistance. Key level: 147.600 – a major support-turned-resistance area. If price rejects this zone with confirmation, it could resume the bearish move. I’ll be looking for signs of weakness (candlestick rejection, momentum shift) before entering. What do you think? Will USDJPY hold below 147.600 or push higher first? Trade safe, Joe
Short
by JoeChampion
6