US500 - Oversold at Triple Confluence… Bounce Incoming?US500 is approaching a major oversold zone, where three powerful elements intersect at the same point:
• The lower bound of the falling red channel
• The blue long-term trendline
• The orange structure zone acting as demand
⚔️This alignment creates a strong confluence area, a spot where buyers usually step in to absorb selling pressure and trigger corrective moves.
As long as the index holds above this zone, we can expect the possibility of a bullish correction toward the upper trendlines. But if this area fails, the structure would weaken and open the door for deeper downside.
Right now, all eyes are on this confluence… will the US500 bounce from the oversold zone, or break through it? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr.
Sandp
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Weekly TF – 2025
Chart Context:
Tools Used: 3 Fibonacci Tools:
1. One **Fibonacci retracement** (from ATH to bottom)
2. Two **Trend-Based Fibonacci Extensions**
* Key Levels and Zones:
* **Support Zone** (Fib Confluence): \~4,820–5,100
* **Support Area (shallow pullback)**: \~5,500–5,600
* **Resistance & TP Zones:**
* TP1: **6,450** (Fib confluence & -61.8%)
* TP2: **6,840** (-27%)
* TP3: **7,450–7,760** (Major Confluence)
Technical Observations:
* SPX is approaching a **critical resistance** near previous ATH (\~6,128) with projected upward trajectory.
* The **green dashed path** suggests a rally continuation from current \~6,000 levels to TP1 (\~6,450), TP2 (\~6,840), and eventually TP3 (\~7,450–7,760), IF no major macro shock hits.
* The **purple dotted path** suggests a potential retracement first to \~5,600 (shallow correction) or deeper into \~5,120 or even 4,820 zone before continuing the bullish rally.
* The major support zone around **4,820–5,120** includes key Fib retracement levels (38.2% and 61.8%) from both extensions and historical breakout levels.
Fundamental Context:
* US economy shows **resilience** amid soft-landing narrative, though inflation remains sticky.
* The **Federal Reserve** is expected to cut rates in **Q3–Q4 2025**, boosting equity valuations.
* Liquidity expansion and dovish outlook support risk assets, including **equities and crypto**.
* However, **AI-driven tech rally** may be overstretched; a correction could follow earnings disappointments or macro surprises (e.g., jobs or CPI shocks).
Narrative Bias & Scenarios:
**Scenario 1 – Correction Before Rally (Purple Path)**
* If SPX faces macro pushback (e.g., high CPI, hawkish Fed), expect retracement to:
* 5,600 = Fib -23.6% zone
* 5,120–4,820 = Major Fib Confluence Zone
* These would act as **accumulation zones**, setting up next leg up toward TP1 and beyond.
* **Effect on Gold**: May rise temporarily due to risk-off move.
* **Effect on Crypto**: Could stall or correct, especially altcoins.
**Scenario 2 – Straight Rally (Green Path)**
* If Fed confirms cuts and macro remains soft:
* SPX breaks ATH (\~6,128)
* Hits TP1 (\~6,450), TP2 (\~6,840)
* Eventually reaches confluence at **TP3 (7,450–7,760)**
* **Effect on Gold**: May struggle; investor preference for equities.
* **Effect on Crypto**: Strong risk-on appetite, altseason continuation.
Indicators Used:
* 3 Fibonacci levels (retracement + 2 extensions)
* Trendlines (macro and local)
* Confluence mapping
Philosophical/Narrative Layer:
This phase of the market resembles a test of collective confidence. Equity markets nearing ATHs while monetary easing begins reflect a fragile optimism. The Fibonacci levels act as narrative checkpoints — psychological as much as mathematical. Will we rally on faith or fall for rebalancing?
Bias & Strategy Implication:
Bias: Bullish with caution
* Strategy:
* Await **confirmation breakout >6,128** for fresh long entries
* Accumulate on dips in the **5,100–5,500** zone if correction unfolds
* Use **TP1, TP2, TP3** as staged exits
Related Reference Charts:
* BTC.D Analysis – Bearish Bias:
* TOTAL:Bullish Bias
*TOTAL3 – Bullish Bias:
* US10Y Yield – Falling Bias Impact:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US10Y/45w6qkWl-US10Y-10-Year-Treasury-Yield-Weekly-TF-2025/
Gold stands outSince the opening of the gold price in the morning, the gold price has almost been rising continuously during the day, without too much retracement, and every K-line showing a negative trend is an opportunity to go long! During this period, we can't wait for a large retracement, and we also chase the trend after the gold price breaks through 2900! The short-term gold price rose again and earned a profit of 10 US dollars to leave the market! Gold is strong, and the trend is difficult to change. It is impossible to go short, and the next step will continue to maintain a bullish mindset. The top K-line of the gold price in the evening has a negative trend. Gold has entered the adjustment market for a short time, so we still wait for it to fall back more! The first support below is 2895. If the gold price falls back to 2896 in the evening, continue to go long!
Specific strategy
Gold 2894 long, stop loss 2883, target 2910
A potential minor or major pullback for SPX?🔉Sound on!🔉
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
Never the same since 2008, American delusion Since the financial crash of 2008 the stock market has only gone up, will it continue to only go up? How long can America keep living in this delusional illusion.
Have thing only got better since 2008? Is the economy strong then ever?
No I didn't think so.
Not like its the reserve currency of the world. For now.
Don't wanna be political so thats all il say 😅
I'm bearish on America long term.
Imagine hitting the 1.13 fib retracement at $170 🤣
S&P E Mini ZonesAfter a start to the Trading Week with 0 News to move markets.. Things are slow.
There is also a mixed bowl for Market Sentiment (slightly upside biased temporarily) that is feeding into upmoves.
HOWEVER this upside movement is NOT strong enough to break early resistance very quickly hence where we find ourselves.
So let's look ahead.
Trade Small Trade Safe.
HON Daily Technical AnalysisA SHORT Position
Support Price: 204,26 - 206,40 - 207,84
Resistance Price:200,50 - 193,67 - 184,36 - 179,77
Daily and Hourly indicators NEGATIVE. With market stuation price can DOWN. All Market index looking like will go DOWN. So HON can be good for short position.
Its i my mind. it is not a investment mind
US500 - Video Top-Down Analysis!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
Here is a detailed update top-down analysis for US500 .
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Bearish head and shoulders on SPX500USDSPX500USD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 4274 (stop at 4322)
A bearish Head and Shoulders is forming. This is negative for sentiment and the downtrend has potential to return. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. Resistance is located at 4280 and should cap gains to this area.
Our profit targets will be 4161 and 4120
Resistance: 4280 / 4625 / 4800
Support: 4160 / 3900 / 3700
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
SPX500USD Support could prove difficult to breakdown.SPX500USD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 4086 (stop at 4060)
Preferred trade is to buy on dips. There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited. Bespoke support is located at 4090. Support could prove difficult to breakdown. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 4090, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 4163 and 4320
Resistance: 4167 / 4500 / 4800
Support: 4090 / 3800 / 3400
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
S&P500: Exhausting 🥵An exhausting time lies behind S&P500! It has been moving up and down with vivid gestures and has paced itself a bit only recently. We expect the index to take a rest in the magenta zone between 3788 and 3683 points, where it should also finish wave iv in magenta. Afterwards, it should be revived enough to rise towards the mark at 4101 points. However, there is a 33% chance that S&P500 could be too nervous to relax and thus could climb above 4101 points immediately.
Feb 21, 2022 S&P500 Sell-The Big One?Could this be it? The BIG one we have all been waiting for? At least I have been waiting for it. Has ALL the forces come together in the perfect storm to have the S&P drop 30% or 40%??
I know it's going to happen, just don't know when. But so far my Sell order is doing well.
Next up is 4200 level - this is a good psycholgical level and will be a decent support level - if however price action smashes through this level and keeps on going down, who knows when it's going to stop.
Every 100 points will be a bit of a support level and of course 4000 even will be a major support.
Anyway, my plan is to put in another Sell Order at around 4180 if price action crashes through the 4200 level. I will keep you posted.
Stay safe.
HEIKO
Reached Long Time Resistance - Bearish Market Sentiment We have reached a line of key resistance that has held up for a decade. That along with the overall market sentiment makes me think we are heading down from here. I feel like we could see 3800 within the next couple months.
Thank you for viewing my post!
NASDAQ 100 FORECASTjust wait for some confirmation if candle break trendline that i've draw on chart you can entry and make sure use risk-reward management ok.
US500 - Wider and Wilder!Hello Trading Family, I found US500 chart interesting.
We can see that US500 is currently trading inside these two brown trendlines forming a rising broadening wedge.
Here are the two strong zones where I will be looking for high probability setups:
I call them War Zones, (highlighted in Orange circles)
Zone 1: Lower Orange Circle
This highlighted orange circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of a demand zone and the lower brown trendline acting as non-horizontal support. (trend-following setup)
Zone 2: Upper Orange Circle
This highlighted orange circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the round number 4k and the upper brown trendline acting as an over-bought / over-extended area.
As per my trading style/plan:
I will be waiting for US500 to approach one of the orange circles to look for reversal setups on lower timeframes (like a double bottom/top, trendline break, and so on...)
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Next Dump? View for SPX Dollar and EuroIt looks like the S&P has not much room to grow.
- A big bearish divergence is there on the chart for weeks / months (SPX)
- last time it started with a big move up from the EURO (dump SPX)
- Later people switched from EURO to the DOLLAR
- the MACD has just started bearish on the DAILY (DOLLAR)
- The fed printed so much money. That's why Bitcoin is going fast?
Nice to see the charts together.
My question for you:
What if the dollar FAILS? Do people really buy Bitcoin for the long term? Or is Bitcoin short term?
Or will people buy GOLD






















