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SCENARIO STUDY: Bullish or Bearish?Hello fellow traders! Here’s a fresh, USD/JPY plan that blends 4-hour technicals with today’s macro/news flow, plus the most recent trader and bank sentiment. Time to get happy! USD/JPY for Aug 15, 2025, U.S. morning/afternoon 4H structure: After a slide that tested ~146.2–146.4 support, the USD/JPY keeps running into 147.8 and 148.5 as notable 4H hurdles. Macro/news today: U.S. PPI (July) surprised hotter, cooling talk of a 50 bp Fed cut (market leans 25 bp for Sep 17); Japan Q2 GDP beat aided the yen and BoJ-hike chatter. BoJ backdrop: July meeting opinions/outlook show a cautious tightening bias and discussion of resuming hikes; 10-yr JGB around ~1.5%. Positioning & sentiment (latest): CFTC JPY (non-commercial) net longs have fallen from mid-July peaks to ~82k (Aug 8). Retail (spot) sits near 54% long / 46% short. Banks’ bias (based on recent published views): UBS CIO guides for USD/JPY drifting lower through year-end (~140 by Dec 2025) as BoJ tightens gradually, and J.P. Morgan Research also expects weaker USD into late-2025 (USD/JPY ~141 Sep, 140 Dec). 4-hour levels to mark Support: 146.20–146.40, then ~146.00 (deeper swing shelf). Resistance: 147.80, 148.50 (recent 4H/spot pivot and swing high). Scenario A — Bullish (rebound off support / corrective pop) Why it could play out: Hotter U.S. PPI trimmed aggressive-cut bets; if incoming U.S. data/fedspeak doesn’t further dent yields, a corrective USD bounce can lift price from support toward overhead supply! Go Bulls? :D Bullish Plan (4H execution): Entry: 146.40–146.70 on a 4H bullish candle or RSI divergence near S1. (Structure band per the 4H map.) Stop: 145.95 (clean break of the lower shelf). Take Profit 1: 147.80 (first supply). Take Profit 2: 148.50 (recent high / strong supply). Respect Supports: 146.40–146.20, then 146.00. Resistances to fade/scale: 147.80, 148.50. Indicative R:R: from 146.60 risk ~65 pips to stop for ~+120 pips to TP2 (≈1:1.8), +120–190 pips if extension through 148.5. Scenario B — Bearish (trend continuation from resistance) Why it could play out: 4H downswing remains intact below 147.8/148.5; BoJ tone leans cautious-hawkish, Japan data firmed (GDP), while CFTC shows less crowded JPY longs (reduced squeeze risk). UBS/JPM public pieces lean medium-term lower USD/JPY. Bearish Plan (4H execution): Entry: 147.80–148.00 on a 4H rejection wick / failure swing at R1. Stop: 148.60 (invalidate above R2 swing high). TP1: 147.00 (recent intraday base). TP2: 146.20–146.40 (key 4H demand). Resistances to lean on: 147.80, 148.50. Supports to target: 147.00, 146.20–146.40, then ~146.00 if momentum accelerates. Go Bears? :D BUT WAIT..... Which is more probable now? As for the team here at How To (dot) Forex, we are collectively leaning bearish (Scenario B) over the next few sessions. And, here is why.... Structure: Price remains capped beneath 147.8/148.5 on the 4H map. Macro skew: Hot PPI pared back “big cut” bets but markets still favor a 25 bp cut; meanwhile Japan GDP beat + BoJ talk of possible resuming hikes is JPY-supportive. Sentiment: Retail near 50/50 (slight long) and CFTC net JPY longs off the highs → fewer asymmetric squeeze dynamics for upside USD. What are the banks saying? Recent UBS and JPM predictions point to lower USD/JPY into year-end, aligning with fade-rallies bias unless price reclaims R2 decisively. _________________________________________________ OPINION AND COMMENTARY: we prefer fade-rally shorts into 147.8–148.0 unless a 4H close above 148.5 flips bias. If you see a strong 4H basing signal at 146.2–146.4, the bullish corrective setup is valid — just keep targets conservative at 147.8/148.5. If you have questions, or want to see a specific type of analysis not presented here, leave us a comment below. Thank you for reading. We appreciate your support. Happy trading! _________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER: This analysis was conducted by our in-house team of multi-level traders. We are not responsible for any losses you may incur. Always do you own research before trading. If you are new to trading, consider practicing with a free paper trading account. Ask your broker for details.
by financetrance
Scenario Study: (USD/JPY) BULLS vs BEARSHere’s a fresh, focused read on USD/JPY using today’s news, data, and technicals, plus trader sentiment on 4 hour charts. What changed today so far... (Aug 13, 2025) CPI came in mild (~2.7% YoY) → markets ramped up odds of a September Fed cut (≈94–98%) → Treasury yields/dollar slipped. That kept USD/JPY heavy after a pop to ~148.5 earlier in the week. 4-hour technicals (levels that matter) Range defined by MAs: Price has been ping-ponging between the 4h 100-bar MA (~147.94) and 4h 200-bar MA (~146.73). A break of either side likely sets the near-term trend. Nearby resistance: 148.00/148.50 (recent weekly high ~148.52). A sustained 4h close above opens 149.00 → 149.50. Nearby support: 147.10 (intra-range floor) then 146.70 (4h 200-MA); below that, risk toward 146.00–145.50. Short MAs (8 & 16 on 4h charts): With CPI softness pressuring USD, the very short MAs are flattening/near price (typical in a range). A bearish tilt re-asserts if price rides below them toward the 200-MA; a bullish turn needs reclaims above them and a close >148.00/148.50. (Directional inference from the cited 4h range behavior.) Sentiment & positioning Retail positioning: Net-long skew persists (~61% long / 39% short), a contrarian negative for USD/JPY if the skew persists into weakness. Ahead of/after CPI, trader bias for USD leaned bearish (BofA), and the dollar index eased post-release. That favors JPY on dips unless risk rallies push yields back up. Tradeable take (4-hour game plan) Bias now: Mildly bearish / range-to-down while below 148.00–148.50 and especially if price holds under the 8/16 4h MAs toward the 200-bar MA (~146.7). Bearish continuation trigger: 4h close below 146.70 (200-MA) → momentum target 146.00 → 145.50; invalidation back above 147.20–147.40. Bullish reversal trigger: 4h close above 148.50 (and holding above the short MAs) → targets 149.00 → 149.50; invalidation on a drop back below 148.00. THE BOTTOM LINE Today’s softer CPI + higher cut odds keep USD/JPY on the back foot, with the pair stuck between the 4h 100- and 200-bar MAs. Until 148.50 breaks, risk skews to a grind lower toward 146.7 → 146.0; a clean topside break flips bias to 149+~. Thank you for reading, and happy trading! _________________________________ DISCLAIMER: This analysis was conducted by our in-house team of multi-level traders. We are not responsible for any losses you may incur. Always do you own research before trading.
by financetrance
Will Monday Bring a Breakout or a Correction?Last week was characterized by extreme volatility, with price movements reflecting significant reactions across different trading sessions. On Friday, the Asian session managed to push past the $3057 mark, only for early European trading to see a pullback. However, the US session reversed course, fueling a rally that extended until market close. Key Levels to Watch on Monday Looking ahead, the critical question is whether the Asian session can break above $3086, potentially paving the way for a push beyond $3100. If this breakout fails, we could see a price correction similar to Friday's, especially during European trading. At present, I'm taking a cautious approach, observing the market while many anticipate further upside. While momentum appears strong, I prefer to wait for clearer confirmations before making a move. Potential Scenarios Breakout Above $3086 A successful push above this level could signal continuation toward $3100+, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. Failure at $3086 – Potential Pullback If the market struggles to sustain levels above $3086, a decline to $3076 is likely. A break below $3076 could see further downside to $3067 and possibly lower. Technical Indicators & Market Sentiment RSI (1H): Currently at 52, indicating neutral momentum. RSI (4H): Around 90, showing overbought conditions—especially following the Asian session rally. Market Sentiment: Many traders expect an upward continuation, but caution is warranted given overbought signals and the possibility of a correction. External Factors: Tariffs & Global Trends As we approach April 2nd, when new tariffs take effect, global markets have been showing signs of weakness. Uncertainty persists, and with gold acting as a safe haven, investors may seek protection, adding another layer of complexity to Monday’s price action. Conclusion The start of the week will likely be dictated by whether the Asian session can achieve a breakout above $3086. If it does, bullish momentum could drive prices higher. However, failure at this level could result in a correction, with key support levels at $3076 and $3067 in focus. Given the broader market conditions and upcoming economic events, a cautious approach remains prudent. 📉 Will Monday bring a correction, or is there still room for another rally? Share your thoughts in the comments! 🚀 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Wick-Sniper
HBAR/USDT: A Potential Super Long-Term Impulse Wave Take a look at this super long-term potential impulse wave for HBAR. This chart captures a massive Elliott Wave structure that could define the next big move in the crypto market. We’re seeing the foundation of Wave 3, with the potential for a trend-defining breakout as HBAR progresses through its impulsive phases. The critical zone? A breach of the upper trend line would validate this structure and could signal higher highs on the horizon. This isn’t just a week-to-week setup—it’s a multi-year roadmap. If the Hurst cycles align, we’re looking at one of the most promising long-term plays. What’s your take? Do we see confirmation, or does this remain a dream scenario? Share your thoughts and follow for more long-term crypto insights! 🚀
Long
by cryptechcapital